Friday, May 21, 2010

Market Outlook 21sth May 2010

  Corporate News Headline
Reliance Infrastructure has won Rs 9.25 bn project from the National Highways Authority in Tamil Nadu. The six-laning of the 60-km Hosur-Krishnagiri stretch on NH 7 will be built on design, build, finance, operate and transfer toll basis. (BS)
Mahindra Satyam announced that its business process outsourcing arm Mahindra Satyam BPO has renewed its existing contract for a further period of five years with GlaxoSmithKline. (BS)
Grasim Industries Ltd posted a 15% increase in its net profit at Rs. 6.54 bn for the quarter ending on March 31, 2010. The corresponding numbers for the same period a year ago was Rs. 5.69 bn. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
Food inflation went up by a notch, to 16.49%, for the week ended May 8. Annual food inflation in the previous reporting week was 16.44%. Fuel prices remained flat over the week. During the week, prices of non-food articles declined by 0.35%, as raw rubber prices sank 7% and linseed fell 2%. On an annual basis, pulses turned costlier by 33.65% and fruits by 17%. (BS)
More Americans unexpectedly filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing firings remain elevated even as employment climbs. Initial jobless claims rose by 25,000 to 471,000 in the week ended May 15, Labor Department figures showed in Washington. (Bloomberg)
UK retail sales rose for a third month in April as the economic recovery encouraged consumers to spend more at clothing shops and department stores. Sales climbed 0.3% from March, when they increased 0.5%, the Office for National Statistics said in London. Excluding fuel, sales rose 0.1%. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Pir Health, Federal Bank, Hind Petro, ABB, ONGC, Indusind Bank, Tata Tea, BPCL, Dr Reddy & Glaxo. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks: 
Aban Off shore, Educomp, RNRL, Hind Zinc, MTNL, Moser Bear, JP Associates, HDIL, Triveni & Punj Lloyd.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend 

SPOT SUPPORT/ RESISTANCE
NSE Nifty Index   4947.60 ( 0.57 %) 27.95       
 1 23
Resistance 4977.135006.67   5033.08  
Support 4921.184894.77 4865.23

BSE Sensex 16519.68 ( 0.68 %) 111.19      
 1 23
Resistance 16618.6216717.56 16817.32
Support 16419.9216320.16 16221.22

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 4921 level, expect profit booking up to 4895-4897 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4880-4882 zone by non-stop. 
Hurdles at 4951 & 4956 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 4964-4966 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4987-4989 zone by non-stop. 
Cross above 4995-4997 zone, can take it up to 5018-5020 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 
On Negative Side, break below 4872-4874 zone can create panic up to 4857-4859 zone by non-stop.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 
Down Side Target at 4706.40. 
Stop Loss at 5218.00.

BANK NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 9138 level, expect profit booking up to 9080-9082 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 9043-9045 zone by non-stop. 
Hurdles at 9185 & 9196 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 9214-9216 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 9251-9253 zone by non-stop. 
Cross above 9270-9272 zone, can take it up to 9307-9309 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 
On Negative Side, break below 9025-9027 zone can create panic up to 8987-8989 zone by non-stop.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 
Down Side Target at 8757.45. 
Stop Loss at 9838.95.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BRFL FUTURES 
Bombay Rayon Fashions on Wednesday posted a growth of 18.23% in its consolidated net profit at Rs 161.59 crore for the year ended March 2010, compared to the same period last year.  
Technicals: 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Technically, it should touch 231.25 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side & Bulls will have to work hard too. 
Looks good at around 177.35 level on down side & Too far on down side.

BHARATFORG FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Bharat Forge Ltd has informed BSE that a Meeting of the Board of Directors of the Company will be held on May 22, 2010, inter alia, to consider audited Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account for the year ended on March 31, 2010. After consideration of accounts, the
Board may consider recommendation of Dividend. 
 
Technicals: 
Actually selling taken place in last 5 trading days. Bears manipulated & Do not worry about this fall. (Yesterday, this scrip gained.) 
Technically this scrip should touch 246.00 level on down side & should rebound at around this
level too. 
Recovery may be capped at around 281.15 level on upper side.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5000 CALL OPTION 
Yesterday's fall was not a surprise. Do not worry about this fall & Bears manipulated. 
Expect a recovery up to 58.90 level on upper side. 
Looks good at around 29.10 level on down side. Keep a Stop Loss at this level too.

UNITECH 75 CALL OPTION 
Yesterday's fall was not a surprise. Real Selling too. 
Bear's eyeing a Target of 0.50 level on down side. It should rebound at around this level. 
Exit long positions, if rebound to 1.50 level on upper side.

Equity:
ONGC (NSE Cash) 
The move to increase APM gas prices would be positive for ONGC Ltd. 
Chairman R.S. Sharma said higher gas prices will add 50 billion rupees ($1 billion) in revenue and curb losses from its aging fields. 
The government's decision to more than double prices will help ONGC stem annual losses of about 48 billion rupees from its gas business, Sharma said in an interview in New Delhi. 
Technicals: 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Real Buying too. 
 Technically, it should touch 1195.95 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side & Bulls will have to work hard too. 
Looks good at around 1041.35 level on down side & Too far on down side.

PIRHEALTH (NSE Cash) 
 Management at Piramal Healthcare has once again denied rumours that it will sell off a sizeable chunk of the Indian drugmaker's stock amid reports that talks have been held with Pfizer and Sanofi-Aventis. 
Mumbai-based group issued a statement to the stock exchange that "there is no proposal by the promoter for selling any stake in the company". Piramal made a similar declaration in February last year, saying that rumours of a sale to GlaxoSmithKline or Sanofi were "totally unfounded". 
Technicals: 
Yesterday's rally was a surprise. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 
Technically, it should touch 620.55 level on upper side. It looks that, target is too far on upper side & Bulls will have to work hard too. 
Looks good at around 519.65 level on down side & Too far on down side.


FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
CategoryDate Buy ValueSell Value Net Value
FII 20-May-20102158.57 2815.8-657.23
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII20-May-2010 1847.81126.65 721.15

SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS 

 
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
Aban Offshore Ltd. NSE 689.80 714.22 673.87 738.63 657.93 754.57 633.52
ABB Ltd. NSE 827.50 833.77 822.22 840.03 816.93 845.32 810.67
Educomp Solutions Ltd. NSE 503.45 546.60 478.70 589.75 453.95 614.50 410.80
Federal Bank Ltd. NSE 319.00 324.48 313.03 329.97 307.07 335.93 301.58
GlaxoSmithkline Consumer Healthcare Ltd. NSE 1602.50 1647.63 1569.63 1692.77 1536.77 1725.63 1491.63
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 347.05 356.33 336.83 365.62 326.62 375.83 317.33
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. NSE 236.95 239.27 233.57 241.58 230.18 244.97 227.87
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. NSE 944.65 974.73 919.83 1004.82 895.02 1029.63 864.93
IndusInd Bank Ltd. NSE 196.20 208.42 182.57 220.63 168.93 234.27 156.72
Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd. NSE 56.45 57.80 55.50 59.15 54.55 60.10 53.20
Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. NSE 521.70 536.20 512.20 550.70 502.70 560.20 488.20
Moser Baer India Ltd. NSE 57.80 60.33 56.33 62.87 54.87 64.33 52.33
NSE Index NSE 4947.60 4977.13 4921.18 5006.67 4894.77 5033.08 4865.23
Piramal Healthcare Ltd. NSE 570.10 589.55 539.10 609.00 508.10 640.00 488.65
Punj Lloyd Ltd. NSE 132.90 135.85 130.85 138.80 128.80 140.85 125.85
Punjab National Bank NSE 1002.55 1015.20 991.70 1027.85 980.85 1038.70 968.20
Reliance Capital Ltd. NSE 630.35 641.23 622.23 652.12 614.12 660.23 603.23
Reliance Industries Ltd. NSE 999.95 1010.72 991.47 1021.48 982.98 1029.97 972.22
Reliance Natural Resources Ltd. NSE 44.85 46.97 43.27 49.08 41.68 50.67 39.57
Tata Motors Ltd. NSE 711.90 731.02 694.07 750.13 676.23 767.97 657.12
Tata Steel Ltd. NSE 508.15 518.77 500.77 529.38 493.38 536.77 482.77
Tata Tea Ltd. NSE 1105.95 1121.40 1092.85 1136.85 1079.75 1149.95 1064.30
Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd. NSE 95.70 101.53 92.23 107.37 88.77 110.83 82.93
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Thursday, May 20, 2010 4:04:27 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE.  

Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381