Market Outlook for 30th July 2009

Interday calls for 30th JUL 2009
Buy ABAN-1015 for a target 1034-1055-1070 stop loss 999
Buy Pantaloon-308 for a target 315-324 stop loss 303

Buy Polaris-119 for a target 128-137 stop loss 115
Buy HPCL-332 for a target 340-343 stop loss 328

 

Stocks that are in news today:
NW18 Exclusive: Axis Bank plans fresh GDR (global depositary receipt) issue in 1-2 months
Orbit Corporation plans Rs 250 crore QIP in few weeks – Agencies
KSK Energy board approves Rs 2000 crore QIP issue
Promoters of MCX-SX set to pare stakes by 20% each, a prerequisite to start equity trading – Mint
Ranbaxy gets approval to market Ran-Ropinirolet tablets in Canada
Tata Motors developing new LCV with NESC of Korea
Tata Steel submits Rs 25 crore to BIFR for acquiring Indian Cable Co
Provogue India board meet on August 14 on buy back
5.61 crore Indiabulls Financial shares to hit the market ((QIP issue))
Ex-dividend: ACC @ Rs 10, SAIL @ Rs 1.30
Ex-bonus: Divis Labs @ 1:1
NSE bars further F&O positions in Aban Offshore as 95% of market wide limit hit

 

Results today: SBI, M&M, DLF, Reliance Infra, Indiabulls Real Estate, Indiabulls Securities, IOC, JP Hydro, Tata Chemicals, Wockhardt, Bharati Shipyard, Educomp, Essar Shipping, GMR Infra, Voltas, Welspun India

 

Results today: Adani Enterprises, Aftek, Allcargo, Amara Raja, Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Ansal Properties, Asian Electronics, Austral Coke, Bajaj Electricals, Bang Overseas, Bank Of Maharashtra, BEML, Berger Paints, Bhushan Steel, Birla Ericsson, Brigade Enterprises, Broadcast Initiatives, Cranes Software, Crew BOS, Elecon Engineering, FDC, Fedders Lloyd, Federal-Mogul, Financial Tech, First Winner, Fresenius Kabi, Global Vectra, GM Breweries, Godfrey Phillips, Greenply Industries, GSS America, Hanil Era, Hanung Toys, HBL Power, Heritage Foods, IL&FS Investsmart, India Foils, Indo Asian Fusegear, Ind-Swift Labs, Ind-Swift, Indus Fila, IPCA Labs, IVP, J Kumar, Jai Corp, Jain Irrigation, Jindal Photo, Jyothy Laboratories, Kohinoor Foods, Lloyd Electric, Lloyds Finance, Logix Micro,

 

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
SUPPORT
4484
4462
4423
4403
4364
RESISTANCE
4522
4543
4605
4644
4664
4703
Buy GREAT OFFSHORE,CIPLA
  

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

DCHL, Bharat Forg, Tata Motors, Jintal Saw, Maruti, GSPL, Jindal Steel, Renuka, Polaris &  Rolta  

And this is list of 10 Weak futures: 

India Cemt, Ivrcl Infrast, Bank of India, ABB, Union Bank, EKC, BRFL, RPL, IDFC &  Sun Pharma.
 Nifty is in Up Trend. 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4484 level, selling may continue up to 4462-4464 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4423-4425 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 4522 & 4543 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4603-4605 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4642-4644 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4662-4664 zone. Stop Loss at 4701-4703 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4403-4405 zone can create panic up to 4364-4366 zone. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3906 level, it can zoom up to 4600 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:  
Lower opening expected. Selling should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:  
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 15379 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 13220 level for your long positions too.
 
POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy GREAT OFFSHORE (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 454 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 468 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 479 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 443 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy CIPLA LTD (NSE Cash) 

Recovery should start.

Mild sell-off up to 264 level can be used to buy. If recovery starts, then it may continue up to 278 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 288 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 254 level for your long positions too.
 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	29-Jul-2009	2533.12	2701.91	-168.79

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	29-Jul-2009	1703.66	1577.43	+126.23

 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4513.50	( -1.11 %)	-50.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		4584.63	4655.77	4737.68
Support		4431.58	4349.67	4278.53

	15173.46		( -1.03 %)	-158.48
			1	2	3
Resistance			15405.79	15638.12	15896.81
Support			14914.77	14656.08	14423.75

 Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,070.72. Down by 26.00 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 975.15. Down by 4.47 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,967.76. Down by 7.75 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.42/43 per dollar on yesterday, below Tuesday's close of 48.21/22.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
US STOCKS fell on Wednesday as investors worried that China might be ready to hit the brakes on lending, a move that could curb demand and hinder the global economic recovery.

Further weighing down stocks, yields of shorter-dated US Treasuries briefly hit five-week highs after the week's second poor auction, increasing concern of a possible spike in borrowing costs.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 26 points, or 0.29 per cent, to close at 9,070.72. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX fell 4.47 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 975.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 7.75 points, or 0.39 percent, to 1,967.76.

The Commerce Department said orders to U.S. factories for manufactured goods - those expected to last at least three years - fell an unexpectedly steep 2.5 percent in June. The slide reflected troubles in the auto industry and a drop in demand for commercial aircraft. It was the largest decrease in five months, and was worse than the 0.6 percent decrease analysts were expecting.

Manny Weintraub, president of Integre Advisors in New York, said some good numbers could bring out more buyers becuase investors are betting on what the economy will look like in the near future, not what it looks like now.

"The market is a barometer and not a thermometer," Weintraub said. "As long as things are getting better the market can go up."

Citigroup [C  3.22    0.25  (+8.42%)   ] shares rose 8.4 percent after the U.S. government announced it would take a 34 percent stake in the troubled bank.

Honda's [HMC  30.70    1.99  (+6.93%)   ] American depository receipts soared nearly 6.9 percent after the Japanese automaker posted a plunge in operating profit but beat expectations.

IBM agreed to buy SPSS, which makes analytics software, and Agilent Technologies agreed to buy scientific-instrument maker Varian. Plus, a pair of deals in the wireless sector: Sprint Nextel is buying Virgin Mobil USA and Swedish telecom Ericsson is buying Nortel's wireless unit.

ConocoPhillips, which posted a 76% decline in earnings, was down 4.4%.

ArcelorMittal fell 7% after the world's largest steelmaker reported a loss that was wider than expected amid a slump in sales. Other metals stocks also sank, with Dow component Alcoa sliding 2.4%.

Time Warner (TWX, Fortune 500) reported weaker quarterly earnings that beat estimates on weaker revenue that missed estimates. Shares fell 1.8%.

After the closing bell, Visa Inc (V.N) reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings after the closing bell. But its stock fell 1.2 percent, or 78 cents, to $66. During the regular session, Visa's stock rose 48 cents, or 0.7 percent, to close at $66.78 on the New York Stock Exchange ahead of the earnings.

Natural resources stocks tracked commodity prices down, with miner Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX.N) down 5.2 percent at $55.51. The S&P materials index .GSPM fell 2.1 percent.

Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N), a maker of bulldozers and excavators, shed 2.5 percent to $41.83 and was a top drag on the Dow industrials.

Among the Nasdaq's major decliners, Yahoo Inc (YHOO.O) shares tumbled after the Internet media company announced an advertising deal with Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O).

Yahoo's stock plunged 12.1 percent to $15.14 as some investors were disappointed by the deal's scope. In contrast, Microsoft shares rose 1.4 percent to $23.80.

Shares of Google Inc (GOOG.O), a direct competitor of the new partnership, fell 0.8 percent to $436.24.

In earnings-related news, shares of Sprint Nextel Corp (S.N) sank 11.8 percent to $4.05 after the No. 3 U.S. cellphone service posted a wider quarterly loss than it did a year ago and revenue fell 10 percent.

Concerns about China hurt commodity prices and hit shares in the energy and raw materials sectors, while a steep drop in US durable goods orders in June fed fears of more economic weakness.

Oil futures fell US$3.88 (S$5.60), or 5.8 per cent, to settle at US$63.35 per barrel after US government data showed a surprisingly large increase in crude inventories last week. Shares of energy companies also slid, with Chevron Corp (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) down 1.8 per cent at US$67.12. The S&P energy index .GSPE dropped 2.1 percent.

Investors were also unnerved after U.S. crude inventories rose more than expected last week. The rise prompted worries that weakness in the economy was curbing demand for energy.

Occidental Petroleum Corp. fell $2.21, or 3.1 percent, to $69.48, while Schlumberger Ltd. fell $2.11, or 3.9 percent, to $52.49.

Later this week, we'll get results from Dow energy components ExxonMobil [XOM  71.43    -0.46  (-0.64%)   ] and Chevron [CVX  67.12    -1.22  (-1.79%)   ].

"China has been a big driver of part of the global recovery. Their stimulus is direct and quick," said Mr Bobby Harrington, managing director of trading for UBS in Boston.

Slower growth in China's economy "could limit upside and create downward momentum" in the US stock market, he said.

China's two biggest state-owned commercial banks have put a lid on their 2009 lending targets, according to domestic media reports, a move that will significantly slow overall Chinese credit growth in the year's second half.

The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC sank 5 per cent on Wednesday -- its biggest daily decline in eight months, but it is still up about 80 per cent for 2009.

Despite hitting a midday loss of 82 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) closed with relative tepid decline of 26 points. The S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq Composite (COMP), and Russell 2000 (RUT) were down 1% this afternoon but rebounded to mild losses as well.

The one area that didn't rebound was the US Oil Fund (USO). Oil-related stocks staged mild bounces off their lows but still ended with moderate losses. The Amex Gold Bugs Index (HUI) and CBOE Internet Index (INX) were also relatively weak. A handful of groups posted mild gains but there wasn't much of what I would call leadership.

Stocks had their fourth straight day of incremental moves as commodity prices slid and orders for big-ticket manufactured goods fell, injecting more economic uncertainty into the market.

Investors are uneasy, but aren't giving up on stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost only 26 points Wednesday, and major indexes are still up about 11 percent since mid-July. Analysts say the market's buoyancy after such a big gain is a welcome sign of stability, but also that more good news is needed for stocks to resume their climb.

For now, though, investors are finding more reasons for concern. The price of oil and raw materials fell after stocks tumbled in China on fears that the growth in that country's economy would slow. That could hurt demand for a range of commodities. A jump in U.S. crude-oil inventories further weighed on the price of oil. 

Energy and materials stocks fell after a drop in stocks in China. The main Shanghai index tumbled 5 percent on fears that China would try to keep its economy from heating up too quickly. A slowdown in China's economy would erode demand for a range of raw materials, including oil and metals. 

S&P 500 - Risers

Certegy Inc. (FIS) $23.32 +8.97%

Mckesson Corp. (MCK) $51.01 +8.93%

Citigroup Inc. (C) $3.22 +8.42%

Life Technologies Corp. (LIFE) $46.05 +7.32%

Massey Energy Co (MEE) $24.21 +6.45% 

S&P 500 - Fallers

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO) $15.15 -12.02%

Meredith Corp. (MDP) $26.72 -11.30%

Sealed Air Corp. (SEE) $19.44 -9.50%

Sprint Nxtel Corp. (S) $4.26 -7.12%

United States Steel (X) $37.49 -7.09% 

Dow Jones I.A - Risers

Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $31.98 +1.85%

AT&T Inc. (T) $25.95 +1.68%

United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $53.20 +1.45%

Bank Of America Corp. (BAC) $13.53 +1.42%

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $23.80 +1.41% 

Dow Jones I.A - Fallers

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $41.83 -2.49%

Alcoa Inc. (AA) $11.01 -2.22%

General Electric Co. (GE) $12.25 -2.19%

Du Pont E I De Nemours and Co. (DD) $29.54 -1.86%

Walt Disney Co. (DIS) $25.89 -1.82%

Fed:

Around 2 p.m. ET, the Federal Reserve released its periodic "Beige Book" survey of economic conditions in its twelve districts. The report showed that economic activity remained weak -- but for most districts, the pace of the decline has slowed.

Stocks showed little reaction to the report.

Oil & Bonds :

Light, sweet crude slid $3.88 to settle at $63.35 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bond prices were mixed after a disappointing auction of $39 billion in five-year notes. That raised fears that Washington will have to offer investors higher returns on debt, which can drive up borrowing costs on consumer loans such as mortgages.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.67 percent from 3.69 percent late Tuesday.

What to expect:

Traders are facing an intense seven-day run of economic reports that will help shape views about how quickly the United States can pull out of the longest recession since World War II.

Today, weekly unemployment figures are due and a reading of gross domestic product for the April-June quarter comes tomorrow.

Next week, reports are expected on manufacturing, housing, employment and the service industry.

THURSDAY: Weekly jobless claims; Seven-year Treasury auction results; Earnings from AstraZeneca, ExxonMobil, Colgate-Palmolive, Eastman Kodak, Kellogg, MasterCard, Motorola, Disney, MetLife.

Thursday's market will be bombarded by earnings reports from a wide range of companies. The highlights include big oil, including Exxon  and Royal Dutch Shell and Dow components Travelers and Disney. Disney reports after-the-bell.

Other earnings are expected from Kellogg, Alcatel-Lucent, AstraZeneca, Colgate-Palmolive, Dow Chemical, Motorola, Sony, Siemens, Waste Management, Newell Rubbermaid, Mack-Cali Realty, Apache, Avon Products, Barrick Gold and Becton Dickinson. After the bell, there are reports from MetLife, First Solar, Pitney Bowes. 

Asia:

Nikkei 225 10,116.49     +3.25 ( +0.03%) (08.36 AM IST)

Toshiba Corp. (6502) shares traded higher for the 12th straight day Thursday morning, after the firm on Wednesday evening said it booked a group operating loss of 37.5 billion yen in the April-June quarter, an improvement from the January-March red ink.

Honda Motor Co. (7267) shares rose sharply Thursday morning, after the firm on Wednesday evening upgraded its group profit outlook for fiscal 2009.

Nomura Holdings Inc. (8604) shares rose Thursday morning after a two-day retreat, inspired by the firm's Wednesday evening announcement that it posted a group net profit of 11.4 billion yen in the April-June period, the first positive figure in six quarters.

Japan's industrial output rose 2.4% in June from the previous month, the government said Thursday, with the result just slightly below a consensus expectation of 2.5% according to a survey of analysts by Nikkei and Dow Jones. Shipments were up 3.5% in June from May, and inventories fell 1%. Japanese manufacturers predicted that output will continue to rise in July by 1.6%, according to the report. In the April-June quarter, output was up 8.3% from the January-March period, showing that while consumer spending and labor conditions remain weak in the world's second-largest economy, industrial output is recovering.

Hong Kong stocks posted modest gains early Thursday after falling sharply in the previous session, with banks and property stocks higher, though energy producers declined. The Hang Seng Index rose 1% to 20,328.49. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was up 1.1% at 12,118.98, with China-related stocks not much influenced by volatility on the mainland, where the Shanghai Composite opened higher and then dipped into negative territory before again rising 1.7% to 3,323.20. Taifook Research analyst Marco Mak wrote in a report the Hang Seng Index was likely to see a consolidation with major support at 18,500. Wednesday's correction "has helped cool down the frantic speculative activity and is positive for the base-formation preceding a new round of run-up."

Hong Kong stocks rose on Thursday morning, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index opening 14 points higher at Thursday.

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks the overall performance of 43 mainland Chinese state-owned enterprises on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opened 2 points higher at 11,993.

Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd<601899><2899> declined 3.52% and opened at HK$7.41. Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd<1818> decreased 3.34% from the previous closing to HK$13.3.

Hong Kong shares are seen clawing back some lost ground from the previous session as China's central bank stepped in to allay worries about monetary tightening in the world's third largest economy.

But weak commodity prices may weigh on resources counters after crude oil tumbled 5.8 percent on Wednesday, the biggest single-day percentage loss for front-month contract since April, as U.S. crude stockpiles jumped.

The Peoples' Bank of China "will unswervingly continue to apply an appropriately loose monetary policy and consolidate economic recovery momentum", PBOC deputy governor Su Ning said in comments posted on the central bank's website and reported in local media.

China's central bank would use market tools, "not quota-style controls", to ensure that credit growth was appropriate, sustainable and could support the economy, he said.

China Railway Construction Corp will be eyed after the company said late on Wednesday it won 10 railway construction contracts worth a total 18.3 billion yuan ($2.68 billion), representing 8.1 percent of the company's revenue in 2008.

HSI 20147.78 +12.28 +0.06% (08.38 AM IST)

Dow Sends Buy Signal That's Worked Since 1921:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is sending a buy signal that has foreshadowed gains of 18 percent during the past nine decades.

The 30-stock gauge climbed to more than 10 percent above its mean level from the previous 200 days, rebounding from 34 percent below the so-called 200-day moving average in November, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Eighteen of the last 21 times the Dow rallied from at least 10 percent below the 200-day level to 10 percent above, it posted gains during the next 12 months, Bloomberg data since 1921 show.

The CHART OF THE DAY tracks the difference between the Dow's last price and its 200-day average since 1989. The lower panel displays the measure's price, along with the buy signals it sent near the start of rallies in 1991, 1999 and 2003.

"This rally, while it will have its fits and starts, is the beginning of a new trend, not just a bounce," said Michael Williams, managing director of New York-based Genesis Asset Management, which oversees about $2 billion. "It is a significant opportunity."

The Dow posted an average advance of 18 percent during the 12-month period following buy signals since 1921, Bloomberg data show. In the six-month period, there were 17 advances for an average gain of 8.2 percent. In three months, it climbed 18 times, averaging an increase of 5.7 percent.

Returns by the Dow Jones Industrial Average 12, 6 and 3months after the buy signal.

Buy Signal            12 Months         6 Months      3 Months

June 11, 2003          13.36%             8.98%         3.01%

Jan 8, 1999            19.49%            15.38%         5.75%

March 5, 1991           9.05%             1.21%         1.11%

Jan  27, 1989          10.18%            13.46%         4.14%

Sept. 3, 1982          31.38%            23.02%        11.67%

July 18, 1980           3.78%             5.34%         3.48%

Aug. 9, 1978           -3.74%            -7.76%        -9.83%

March 7, 1975          26.43%             8.63%         9.11%

Dec. 7, 1970            4.73%            12.75%         9.69%

May 8, 1967             1.02%            -6.60%         1.41%

Jan. 25, 1963          15.20%             1.18%         5.68%

July 24, 1958         33.51%            19.91%         8.53%

Dec. 13, 1949          16.26%            15.04%         3.15%

Nov. 6, 1942           16.66%            18.21%         8.29%

Sept. 11, 1939        -16.61%            -4.49%        -5.20%

July 6, 1938           -3.05%            10.95%         7.49%

Feb. 18, 1935          43.10%            19.09%         8.06%

Apr. 19, 1933          54.47%            23.53%        51.63%

Aug. 29, 1932          37.72%           -31.68%       -21.87%

Aug. 18, 1924          35.82%            14.36%         5.46%

Dec. 12, 1921          21.89%            12.53%         8.12%

Average                17.65%             8.24%         5.66%
 

INVESTMENT VIEW
Wyeth targets double digit top line growth with a slew of product launches.

BSE 500095; CMP Rs 678.70; Cum Dividend Rs 32.5 per share

  
It's ENBREL TM, a break through treatment for Rheumatoid Arthritis and Psoriasis, has achieved growth of 65% and PREVENARTM, a vaccine for invasive pneumococcal disease has achieved growth of 222%. During the year the Company launched TYGACILTM, a hospital injectable antibiotic for life threatening infections such as complicated intra-abdominal infections and complicated skin and skin structure infections.   

The Consumer Health Care division launched a line extension of its product Anne French in the form of the 25 gm tube pack, during the year under review. This initiative has been well received by the consumers and the trade. To enhance the brand image of Anne French, the leading film star, Kareena Kapoor has been signed on as Brand Ambassador.

Wyeth maintains its leadership position in Oral Contraceptives, Hormone Therapy, Folic Acid and Depilatory Cream Segments and gained leadership position in the liquid Antacid market.

 

The Indian retail pharmaceutical market valued at Rs. 32095.75 crores recorded a growth of 14.84% during the year ended 31st March, 2008. (Source IMS MAT March, 2008). 

Alimentary Tract and Metabolism products and Systemic Anti-Infectives constituted a major portion (44.74%) of the total market. Other segments like Cardiovascular System, G. U. System and Hormones, Central Nervous System, Haematinics and Vitamin supplements are growing at a fast rate.
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381