Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Market Outlook 23rd March 2010

Strong & Weak  stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks
Idea, Triveni, Indusind Bank, Chennai Petro, India Hotels, JSW Steel, Wel Guj, BEL, DCHL & Sesa Goa. 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
Balrampur Chini, Bajaj Hind, Renuka, Hind Petro, Tulip, BPCL, KS Oils, Moser Bear, Dish TV & Nagarjuna Fertil.
Nifty is in Up trend  

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII22-Mar-2010 2069.091766.31 302.78

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 Above 5230 level, expect short covering up to 5260-5262 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5290-5292 zone by non-stop. 
Support at 5203 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 5188-5190 zone by non-stop. 
Break below 5138-5140 zone, can create panic up to 5108-5110 zone by non-stop and have caution. 

On Positive Side, cross above 5320-5322 zone can take it up to 5350-5352 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5438.30. 
Stop Loss at 5105.50.

Equity:
ICICIBANK (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's selling could be considered as a speculative selling. 
 

If fall continues, then it can tumble up to 907.25 level by non-stop. 
If short covering starts, then it can zoom up to 963.25 level by non-stop

and have caution.

MANINFRA (NSE Cash) 
Bulls beaten expectations on yesterday. 
 
If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 410.15 level by non-stop. 
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 359.10 level and have

caution.

HDFCBANK (NSE Cash) 
Yesterday's rally could be considered as a speculative buying. 
 

If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 1914.00 level by non-stop. 
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 1798.00 level and have

caution.

HDIL (NSE Cash) 
Bears beaten expectations on yesterday. 
 
If fall continues, then it can tumble up to 262.40 level by non-stop. 
If short covering starts, then it can zoom up to 294.90 level by non-stop

and have caution.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION 
Rallied on yesterday & it was a surprise. Uptrend should continue & Bulls should not get panic at lower levels. 
 
If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 35.00 level by non-stop. 
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 11.50 level by non-stop and have caution.

RELIANCE 1080 PUT OPTION 
Rallied on yesterday & it was a surprise. Uptrend should continue & Rally should be considered as a speculative rally. 
 

If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 18.95 level by non-stop. 
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 4.55 level by non-stop and have caution.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
IBREALEST FUTURES 
Fallen on yesterday & Bears beaten expectations. Fall should continue today also & Bears should not get panic at higher levels. 

If selling continues, then it can tumble up to 139.00 level by non-stop. 
If short covering starts, then it can zoom up to 157.00 level by non-stop and have caution.

JPASSOCIAT FUTURES (2 Days Holding) 
Fallen on yesterday. It was a surprise. Fall may continue for 2 days & Bears should not get panic at higher levels. At the same time, selling is doubtful for today's trading and have caution. 
Sell with a Stop Loss of 151 level with a Target of 138.80 level today. It may even tumble up to 134.60 level in next 2 trading days. 

Stop Loss for next 2 trading days can be kept at 155.20 level.

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."


INVESTMENT VIEW
Aventis Pharma-Outperformer  

BSE 500674; CMP Rs 1827.25; Cum Dividend-Rs 16.50 per share

Aventis Pharma Ltd. (APL) is the Indian subsidiary of the global pharmaceutical giant Sanofi-Aventis S.A. The parent ranks amongst the top 3 pharmaceutical companies of the world & holds about 50% in Aventis Pharma Ltd.

 

Sanofi-Aventis lends strong support to Aventis Pharma, in terms of new product introductions in the Indian domestic markets from its product basket & easy access to its strong & rich product pipeline. The parent has also looked at increasing its stake in the Indian subsidiary.

 

APL has transformed itself into a company catering to the chronic & critical-care therapeutic segments. It has several products that are market leaders within their respective segments & have grown at double digits over the years.

 

APL is also achieving better results on the exports front year after year. We believe these products to continue their growth momentum & help the company to achieve higher

profitability going forward.

 
With consistently growing brands in its product basket & new product launches every year, the company generates huge cash flows. As of December 2008, APL has net cash balance of Rs. 4,973.7 Mn. on its Balance Sheet, translating to Rs. 216.0 per share.

 

This free cash can be used by the company for suitable acquisitions within the Indian

Pharma space. Over the years, APL has maintained a constant dividend payout in the range of 20-25%.

 

Valuations 
We expect the company to achieve 8 - 10% CAGR growth in its top-line & bottom-line over the next couple of years. Besides, cash rich & debt free status adds to the defensive nature of the stock. 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

-- 
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381