Friday, January 14, 2011

Market Outlook 14th Jan 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks: 
Jindal Saw, Ispat Ind, Hexaware, Grasim, Hind Zinc, Praj Ind, Bata India, Sesa Goa, Sun Pharma & Cairn. 
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
LIC Housing, Syndicate Bank, Orbit Corp, Oriental Bank, IOC, HDIL, Dena Bank, Indian Bank, Patel Eng & Andhara Bank.
The daily trend of nifty is in Down trend 

NFUT CL 5755 SGX 5756) PRE MARKET CALL FOR 14 JAN TRADE IN GIVEN EXPECTED TRADING RANGE 5710-5790. LEVEL C/F 5842
Gap down Buy SR Transfin @ 730 trgt 755 sl 718

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/ CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 5827.535903.17 5948.58
Support 5706.485661.07 5585.43
Sensex Resistance 19424.71 19666.60 19810.82
Support 19038.60 18894.38 18652.49

Scripts to watch on 14th  Jan. : ACC, Ambujacem, Bhartiatl,  Bhel, Bajaj-Auto, DLF, HDFCBank,  ICICIBank, Infosys, M&M, Maruti, ONGC, Reliance, RelCap, SBI, TataMotors, TataPower, Tisco,  Bajaj-Auto, DrReddy, HDFC, Siemens, SesaGoa,

Break Out !!: Intraday calls On the Basis of Break out System (For Cash Segment only)       
Aban Buy above 736 740/744/749/754 stop 722
Aban Sell Below 707 700/695/691/686 stop 722

Break Out !!: HDFCBank Buy above 2165 2174/2184/2194/2504 stop 2143
HDFCBank Sell Below 2124 2115/2107/2096/2083 stop 2143

Infosys Buy above 3231 3245/3255/3269/3281 stop 3205
Infosys Sell Below 3184 3175/3165/3153/3141 stop 3205

Break Out !!: ONGC Buy above 1216 1223/1231/1239/1247 stop 1201
ONGC Sell Below 1185 1179/1171/1163/1153 stop 1201

SBI Buy above 2580 2589/2599/2609/2619 stop 2560
SBI Sell Below 2545 2535/2524/2514/2504 stop 2560

Break Out !!: Nifty Spot Buy above 5785 5800/5820/5840/5855 
Nifty Spot Sell Below 5730 5710/5695/5675/5660 

Market Outlook
 
 

Yesterday, Nifty fell sharply by 111 points as below expectation results from Infosys Technologies hurt investor's sentiments. Nifty is trading below the short term (20DMA, 50 DMA and 100DMA) moving averages placed at 5,982, 5,995 and 5,947 levels; these levels may act as stiff resistance for upside. Nifty is likely to open on a flat to negative note following mixed cues from global markets. It has an important support in 5,720-5,690 range, If Nifty hold support then short covering may be seen. In case, Nifty breaches 5,690 it may test the lower 200 DMA which stands at 5,597. We can expect a pullback in market from this level or lower support of 5,700 level. On the upside, Nifty could find immediate resistance near 5,820-5,840 level.

Technical indicator MACD is crossing the signal line (9 Days Exponential moving average) from the above, which is a bearish indication. However, RSI and Stochastic are staying close to his oversold levels and likely to attract buying sentiment. Strong support for the Nifty is at the 5,700 level and unless that is breached, the outlook remains bullish.



VENKEYS (BUY)

  • Stochastic is at 22 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
  • RSI is at 43 neutral territory and on the brink of entering into positive crossover.
  • MACD is likely to show bullish crossover.
CMP Buy/SellTarget Price Stop Loss Support/ Resistance

655.10

BUY

662/675/685

642

620/700

JET AIRWAYS (SELL)

  • RSI is at 36 neutral territory showing negative crossover indicating downtrend.
  • Stochastic is moving into oversold territory showing negative crossover also indicating downside.
  • MACD is likely to show bearish crossover.
  • Stock is trading below 08 day EWMA and showing correction.
CMPBuy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

692.40

SELL

685/675/665

705

610/750

SAIL (SELL)

  • RSI is moving into oversold territory currently at 37 level showing negative crossover.
  • Stock is trading below 08 day and 34 day EWMA and showing correction.
  • MACD is showing bearish crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

172.30

SELL

170/166/162

177

155/185

ORCHID CHEMICALS (SELL)

  • RSI is moving into neutral territory currently at 49 level showing negative crossover.
  • Stock is trading below 08 day and 34 day EWMA and showing correction.
  • MACD is showing bearish crossover.
CMP Buy/Sell Target PriceStop Loss Support/ Resistance

287.50

SELL

285/280/275

294

260/320

 
 
 Pivot Levels for Future Segment to be used on 14th January

US markets
 
 US markets closed marginally lower after a volatile session as investors reacted to mixed batch of economic data. Markets started the day on subdued note as US initial jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 35,000 to 4,45,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 4,10,000. Economists had expected initial claims to slip to 4,05,000 from the 4,09,000 originally reported for the previous week. However, losses were capped after report showed US trade deficit narrowed to USD 38.3 billion in November from a revised USD 38.4 billion in October and against expectation of USD 41.0 billion deficit. Moreover, positive report from real estate sector wherein RealtyTrac said foreclosure filings in December fell 2% sequentially and declined 26% from last year. On corporate front, AIG rose after it said it will conclude its recapitalization process Friday.  
 
    European markets
 
 European markets ended mixed as financial stocks advanced while retailers and mining shares declined. Retailers fell after Tesco issued a disappointing sales update, saying recent bad weather in the UK caused disruption for customers trying to reach its larger stores. Weaker commodity prices weighed on mining stocks. However, financial stocks rose after Spain sold around EUR 3 billion bonds while Italy sold Euro 6 billion bonds. In important economic news, ECB maintained its key interest rate at a historic low of 1% while Bank of England left its key interest rate unchanged and retained the size of the quantitative easing at GBP 200 billion.  
 
    Indian markets (Prev Day)
 
 Indian markets closed in the negative zone despite strong global cues as over-heating of domestic economy and inflation related woes dominated investor sentiments. Infosys Technologies led the market lower in early morning session as the company's Q3 December 2010 results fell short of market expectations. Disappointing Infosys results also weighed on other IT stocks. Volatility continued in morning trade as the key benchmark indices hit fresh intraday lows. Interest rate sensitive banking stocks declined ahead of inflation data due on Friday. The key benchmark indices held negative zone in mid-morning session, with BSE Mid-Cap and Small-Cap indices outperforming the Sensex. Markets hit fresh intraday low in afternoon trade led by selling in banking shares. Index heavyweight Reliance Industries dropped in volatile trade. On the sectoral indices, Bank (down 3.53%), IT (down 3.41%) and TECk (down 2.76%) were the major losers, while Realty (up 0.54%) was the only index that closed in positive territory. At the end, Sensex closed at 19,182.82 down by 351.28 points. It touched an intraday high of 19,522.38 and low of 19,136.27. Nifty ended at 5,751.90 down by 111.35 points. It made a high/low of 5,857.75 and 5,736.70 respectively.  
 
IndexLatest1 D Chg(%)YTD(%)
NSE Index (13 Jan 2011) 5751.90 -1.90 -6.24
Sensex (13 Jan 2011) 19182.82 -1.80 -6.47
Dow Jones Ind. .. (13 Jan 2011) 11731.90 -0.20 1.33
Nasdaq Composit.. (13 Jan 2011) 2735.29 -0.07 3.11
Hang Seng (13 Jan 2011) 24238.98 0.47 5.22
Straits Times (13 Jan 2011) 3255.87 0.34 2.06
FTSE 100 (13 Jan 2011) 6023.88 -0.44 2.10
CAC 40 (13 Jan 2011) 3974.83 0.75 4.47
DAX (13 Jan 2011) 7075.11 0.09 2.33
SectorsClose1D Chg(%)
BSE IT 6444.77 -3.53
BSEPSU 8883.01 -1.02
OILGAS 10124.69 -1.12
Advance Decline RatioValue(in Cr.)Index
0.16 1206.80 SENSEX
0.16 8150.11 NIFTY
   SENSEX    NIFTY
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Tata Motors Ltd. 1235.65 1.58 -5.41
Oil And Natural Gas Corporatio... 1199.30 1.04 -7.28
DLF Ltd. 265.10 0.61 -9.20
Top GainersClose1D Gain(%)YTD(%)
Ambuja Cements Ltd. 132.50 3.03 -7.47
Tata Motors Ltd. 1236.70 1.54 -5.48
Oil And Natural Gas Corporatio... 1201.50 1.25 -6.73
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 3212.30 -4.82 -6.75
State Bank of India 2560.65 -3.91 -8.91
ICICI Bank Ltd. 1027.40 -3.88 -10.24
Top LosersClose1D Loss(%)YTD(%)
Infosys Technologies Ltd. 3205.20 -5.10 -6.90
Punjab National Bank 1133.65 -4.89 -7.23
State Bank of India 2560.70 -4.08 -8.93
Top

Most Active Stocks by value (in Cr)

BSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
SBI 2664.75 -3.91 236.91 912943
ICICI Bank 1068.90 -3.88 157.11 1503561
InfosysTechn 3374.95 -4.82 142.55 439701
Tata Steel 649.30 -1.83 113.64 1767711
RIL 1030.60 -1.49 101.30 990552
 
NSEClose%ChgValue(in Cr.)Volume
InfosysTechn 3377.30 -5.10 904.87 2794109
SBI 2669.70 -4.08 728.61 2805033
Tata Motors 1218.00 1.54 706.20 5733344
RIL 1030.80 -1.50 569.30 5562896
ICICI Bank 1069.45 -4.06 536.84 5149819
 
Strike Price Value Price %Chg
   Most Active Calls by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 5900.00 1466815.58 38.85 108.88
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 5800.00 1324690.47 74.50 85.23
   Most Active Puts by Contract Value (in Cr)
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 5700.00 1482443.19 79.25 -51.04
NIFTY ( 27 Jan 2011 ) 5800.00 1466320.47 122.80 -47.60
   Most Active Future by Contracts Value (in Cr)
INFOSYSTCH ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 127217.52 3218.00 4.98
SBIN ( 27 Jan 2011 ) - 126876.32 2569.60 4.15
    International News
 
 
  • Canada's trade deficit was nearly halved in November, as exports rose and imports tailed off on a significant drop in shipments of energy products. Nation's trade deficit with the world narrowed to Canadian dollar 81 million in November from Canadian dollar 1.5 billion in October. (RTT News)
  • Latvia's central bank decided to keep its benchmark refinancing rate unchanged at 3.5%, saying that currently, there is no significant threat to price stability. The bank has kept the refinancing rate steady since March last year. The seven-day deposit facility rate was left unchanged at 0.37% and the overnight deposit facility rate was maintained at 0.25%. (RTT News)
  • The European Central Bank will face a grilling on its assessment of the euro zone debt crisis and firming price pressures in the bloc after it left interest rates on hold at 1% on Thursday. (Economic Times)
 
 
    Domestic News
 
 
  • The Company Law Board (CLB) has allowed infrastructure finance company IL&FS to take over Maytas Properties, a company promoted by the family members of disgraced Satyam founder Ramalinga Raju. IL&FS has been allowed to hold 80% of the equity in Maytas Properties, Corporate Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid told reporters here on Thursday. (The Hindu)
  • Tata Coffee Ltd has informed that Starbucks, the US giant Coffee Company is making an entry with its famed stores into India. It has held several meetings with Tata Coffee Limited, India's largest Coffee Producing Company for a possible alliance. (Money Control)
  • BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (RIM) said that it has delivered a solution to address lawful interception of its messenger and internet services and denied that any such access would be enabled for corporate e-mail services. (Sify Finance)
  • The Cabinet on Thursday approved the extension of schemes aimed at coal mines' conservation and developing transportation of infrastructure in coalfield areas for an undisclosed period. (Business Line)
  • Engineering major Larsen and Toubro (L&T) said that it has delivered its first four Dry Shielded Canisters for Transnuclear, a US-based nuclear power operator. (Business Standard)
 
 
CurrencyExchange-Rate1D Chg(%)1M Chg(%)
EUR 59.10 0.72 % -1.19 %
GBP 71.05 0.58 % 2.55 %
USD 45.13 -0.07 % 0.71 %
FIIs ActivityRs. Cr.MTDYTD
Equity in flows 3420.80 24610.90 24610.90
Equity Out flows 3519.00 26367.90 26367.90
Net -98.20 -1757.00 -1757.00


F&O Highlights 
¾ Nifty plunged over 100 points and closed at 5,751.90. Nifty January Future ended with premium of 9.35 points at 
5,761.25 (LTP). For the coming session 5,840-5,920 level will play resistance for Nifty while on downside 5.710-
5,690 will be support level for Nifty. 
¾ There was significant open interest was accumulated on  ATM and OTM Call options. Most of the open interest 
accretion witnessed in the 5900 and 5800 Calls. On the flip side maximum open interest accretion was seen in 5700 
and 5600 Put option. Option concentration suggests a range of 5,700 to 5,840 level. 
¾ India volatility Index (VIX) increased significantly by 8.12%, to 23.15 from 21.41. Increase in VIX indicates Nifty is 
likely to trade with negative bias in initial hours of next days' trade. 
¾ The Put-Call ratio decreased and close at 1 levels. The options concentration has shifted to 5900 Call option. 
¾ All the sectoral indices ended in red barring CNX Realty which was up by 0.66% compared to its previous close 
followed. Among the laggards Bank Nifty and CNX IT slipped over 3%. Bank Nifty fell 3.70% while CNX IT fell 3.55% 
followed by CNX Infra which was down by 0.53%. Significant open interest accumulation was witnessed in Bank Nifty 
while shedding of open interest was seen in CNX IT index. 
¾ Among stock futures, ITC, GESHIP, SRTRANSFIN and ADANIPOWER saw higher accumulation of open interest 
with increase in prices while SYNDIBANK, HEXAWARE, HINDZINC and FEDERALBNK witnessed shedding of open 
interest along with decline in prices.