Market Outlook 31st Dec 2009

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2010

 

Intraday calls for 31st Dec 2009

+ve sector and script : Shiv-vani,HOEL

Buy OFSS-2322 for 2368-75 with sl 2300

Buy Cummins-422 for 432-434 with sl 419

Buy Indswftlab-76 for 82 with sl 73

Buy Visasteel-38 for 45-51 with sl 35 [positional]

 

 NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5185
5199
5212
5220
5231
SUPPORT
5155
5141
5125
5117
5109
KALINDEERAIL;SRF;NITINFIRE;TINPLATE;HIndoil;tvsmot

 

  Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Sintex, Sail Ltd, Hotel Leela, Tata Motors, Hindalco, India Hotels, Suzlon, Sesa Goa, Ispat Industries & Century Text.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Andhra Bank, Pir Health, JP Associates, Ashok Ley, Orient Bank, IDFC, Tata Comm, GT Offshore, Orchid Chem & FSL.
 Nifty is in Up trend  

 

 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 5185 level, expect short covering up to 5199 & 5212 levels by non-stop.

Support at 5141 & 5155 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 5125 level by

non-stop.

Break below 5117 level, expect further panic up to 5109-5111 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 5220 level can take it up to 5229-5231 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.

Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
Equity:
 
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)

Recommendation: 

Fall should continue. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 621 level. Sell if touches 627-629 zone with a Stop Loss of 634-636 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Below 609 level, selling may continue up to 606 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 596-598 zone by non-stop.
 
 
KALINDEE RAIL NIRMAN (ENGINEERS) (NSE Cash)

Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Hurdle at 232 level. If crosses & sustains at above 237-239 zone then expect a jump up to unbelievable target of 249-251 zone by non-stop.

Support at 228 level. Below 218-220 zone, there is a chance of unwinding up to unbelievable target of 208-210 zone also possible and have caution.
 
 
SRF LTD (NSE Cash)

Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Above 209 level, rally may continue up to 211-213 zone.

Support at 204 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 198-200 zone by non-stop.
 
 
NITIN FIRE PROTECTION INDS (NSE Cash):

 Explosive & will zoom.

TINPLATE CO (NSE Cash):

 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

HIND OIL EXPLORA (NSE Cash): 

Explosive & will zoom.

TVS MOTOR (NSE Cash):

 No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.

THINKSOFT GLOBAL SERVICES (NSE Cash): 

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
 
 
JINDAL STEEL POW (NSE Cash): 

Fall may continue as per technicals.

HERO HONDA (NSE Cash): 

Fall may continue as per technicals.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:
 
SU-RAJ DIAMONDS (BSE Cash & BSE Code:507892)

Uptrend in Monthly Chart is surprising & Looks positive too.

This scrip should have been contained below 45.85 in this month. Yesterday's closing was 51.00. Still one day is left & question is will bears can able hammer this scrip up to 45.85?.

I think, close below 45.85 is not possible today. So bears got trapped.

Buying recommended for 1 Week & 1 Month Holding with a Stop Loss of 45.85.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
 
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION

Recommendation:

 No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Above 48 & 53 levels, it can zoom up to 59 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 64-66 zone by non-stop.

Support at 37-39 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 30-32 zone by non-stop.
 
 
RELIANCE 1080 PUT OPTION

Recommendation: 

Fall may continue.
 

Below 7 & 8 levels, selling may continue up to 2 level by non-stop.

Above 10 level, expect short covering up to 14-16 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
 
TATA MOTORS FUTURES 

Recommendation: 

No trigger as per my calculations. Side ways trend expected with positive bias.
 

Support at 780 level. If uptrend continues, then it can zoom up to 795 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 798-800 zone by non-stop.

On Negative Side, break below 773 level can create panic up to 769-771 zone by non-stop.
 

 

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	5169.45	( -0.36 %)	-18.50
		1	2	3
Resistance		5190.97	5212.48	5227.92
Support		5154.02	5138.58	5117.07

	17343.82		( -0.33 %)	-57.74
			1	2	3
Resistance			17414.98	17486.14	17532.23
Support			17297.73	17251.64	17180.48

 

MTNL: from Sources
-MTNL to offer VRS to increase efficiency
-MTNL wants govt to foot Pension Bill; Pension bill went up to Rs 2,200 crore in last fiscal

Board meets today:
-Himadri Chemical to consider fund raising
-Lloyds Steel: issue of warrants to promoters

 

stocks that are in news today:
-Punjab & Haryana HC dismisses scheme of arrangement between Amtek Auto, Amtek India, Ahmednagar forging on valuation
-DLF restructuring could see company turn into holding firm; 5 sub entities planned – FE
-Taro AGM today, will see vote of shareholders on indemnification of directors and re-election of management
-NTPC to foray into solar energy operations; plans to generate 301 MW via solar energy by March 2014
-Kingfisher still in NSE F&O curb, Aban out
-Panacia Biotec board approves buyback at a maximum price of Rs 189 (CMP: 211)
-Ban on futures trading in sugar extended till September – PTI
-3G auction likely by February 13; last date to apply January 25 – BL

 

ONGC draws a blank in Kerela Konkan basin; Drilling project cost pegged at more than Rs 400 crore – BL
-Export duty on iron ore to push back dispatches by 4.5% or 6 MT – BL 
-Tata Steel, SAIL hike prices on soaring input costs; JSW Steel, Essar, Bhushan to take hikes in January – Mint   
-Emami offloads 19.6% in Zandu Realty @ Rs 6545/share; Emami stake down to 53.2%, values Zandu at over Rs 500 crore – DNA
-Shipping ministry identifies 17 new port projects on PPP basis – DNA
-JSL to hike production capacity to 2.5 MT from current 1.6 MT – DNA
-Hotel Leela successfully cancels $25 million of FCCB's this month; Exposure reduced to $ 66.6 million – DNA 
-JSPL (Jindal Steel & Power) may raise Rocklands Richfield offer to $ 176 million 

 

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	30-Dec-2009	1294.94	1181.47	113.47

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	30-Dec-2009	1164.2	1095.09	69.11

 

 GeoGlobal Resources likely to explore Selan Oil's onshore blocks in Gujarat.
 
 
GeoGlobal Resources Inc., headquartered in Calgary, Alberta, Canada, is a US publicly traded oil and gas company, which through its subsidiaries is engaged primarily in the pursuit of petroleum and natural gas through exploration and development in India.   

Since inception, the Company's efforts have been devoted to the pursuit of Production Sharing Contracts with the Government of India. Currently, the Company is focused on the development of high potential exploration targets in the Krishna Godavari, Cambay, Deccan Syneclise and Rajasthan basin areas. The stock is quoted on the Amex in the United States under the symbol GGR 

Oil and Gas Sector in India 

India is continuing to move forward with market-oriented economic reforms that began in 1991. Recent reforms include liberalized foreign investment and exchange regimes, industrial decontrol, significant reductions in tariffs and other trade barriers, reform and modernization of the financial sector, significant adjustments in government monetary and fiscal policies, and safeguarding intellectual property rights. 

Energy demand including oil & gas has increased in tandem with economic growth. India's petroleum product consumption has doubled in last fifteen years. Current consumption of petroleum products in the country is about 120 MMTPA. Production of oil in the country is around 33 MMTPA for last few years. India currently imports over 70% of its crude oil requirements. 

Economic growth is linked to the growth of energy sector and it is expected that oil demand in India would grow three fold by 2020. The demand for gas is expected to grow at a faster rate than oil. The large finds in the east coast of India are expected to ease the situation. 

The search for and development of India's petroleum resources have now acquired an added urgency. This urgency stems from widening gap between the demands of the nation on the pat of vibrant industrial growth and the availability of oil and natural gas to fuel this growth. 

One of the great success stories in the six decades since independence has been the growth and development of the Indian petroleum industry. In the past 60 years, the country witnessed growth of oil production from a mere 0.25 MMT of oil and 3 billion cubic feet of gas in 1947-48 to around 33 MMT today. 

What started off as a minuscule production from one small oil field in the rain forests of upper Assam has today blossomed into major activity in several areas of onland and offshore of India. 

The Government of India, with Directorate General of Hydrocarbons as a nodal agency, formulated the New Exploration Licensing Policy (NELP) in 1997-98 to provide a level playing field to all the parties to compete on equal terms for award of exploration acreage. Government of India's commitment to the liberalization process is reflected in NELP, which has been formulated keeping in mind the immediate need for increasing domestic production. 

This has been a landmark event in the growth of the upstream oil sector in India. The terms and conditions of this open and transparent policy rank amongst the most attractive in the world. To attract more investment in oil exploration and production, NELP has steered steadily towards a level playing field resulting in a healthy spirit of competition between National Oil Companies and private companies. 

"The oil and gas sector in India is fast emerging as the new destination for world business. Opportunity and initiative make a perfect meeting ground for world technologies in petroleum and natural gas exploration, production, refining, distribution and marketing. 

The growing demand for energy has effected changes in the market environment and in policies, culminating in total decontrol of the petroleum sector since April 1, 2002. 

This has opened up the hydrocarbon sector of a country of one billion people where the demand has been growing at the rate of 5-6% per annum, well above the world average." 
 
 

Safe Harbor Statement:

 
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.)
 

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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381