Friday, May 22, 2009

Market Outlook 22nd May 2009

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Patel Eng, India Info, HDIL, HTMT Global, Aban, HCC, IVR Prime, Bom Dyein, Century Tex & IFCI.
And this is list of 10  Weak :
Colpal, ITC, Sterlin Bio, Glaxo, Hind Uni Lvr, Cipla, Infosys Tech, SunPharma, Tata Tea & GTL.
 Nifty is in Up Trend .
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4208-4210 zone, selling may continue up to 4195 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 4162-4164 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 4230 & 4246 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4292-4294 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4338-4340 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4353-4355 zone. Stop Loss at 4399-4401 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4147-4149 zone can create some panic up to 4101-4103 zone by non-stop.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 4620 level, it can tumble up to 3790 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:  
Weaker opening expected. Downtrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors: 
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
 

INVESTMENT BUY:
Sell GLAXOSMITHKLINE PHARMA (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
If trades below 1122 level, then selling may continue up to 1067 level. Break below 1035 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 1122 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 1155 level.
 
Sell INFOSYS TECHNOLO (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
If trades below 1540 level, then selling may continue up to 1465 level. Break below 1421 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 1540 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 1586 level.
 
Sell CIPLA LTD (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
If trades below 222 level, then selling may continue up to 211 level. Break below 205 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 222 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 229 level.
 
Sell TATA COMMUNICATIONS FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
If trades below 601 level, then selling may continue up to 572 level. Break below 554 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 601 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 619 level.
 
Sell ESSAR OIL FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.
If trades below 175 level, then selling may continue up to 167 level. Break below 162 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 175 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 180 level.
 
Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,292.13. Down by 129.91 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 888.33. Down by 15.14 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,695.25. Down by 32.59 points.
The partially convertible rupee ended at 47.37/38 per dollar on yesterday, above Wednesday's close of 47.47/48.
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 21-May-2009 3766.9 3769.04 -2.14
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 21-May-2009 1550.76 1922.24 -371.48
 

 
NIFTY SPOT
NSE Nifty Index   4210.90 ( -1.39 %) -59.40       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4286.87 4362.83   4406.67  
Support 4167.07 4123.23 4047.27
 
BSE Sensex  13736.54 ( -2.31 %) -324.12     
  1 2 3
Resistance 13982.56 14228.57 14367.64
Support 13597.48 13458.41 13212.40

Shriram EPC-Engineering The Future

BSE 532945

Is The Stock Undervalued?

CMP Rs 196.55
 
 
1 What Does The Company Do?
Industrial Capex, Renewable Energy
Municipal Services, Steel, Power,
Urban Infrastructure, Biomass Plants
Water Treatment, Pipe Rehab, Air
Population, Trenchless maintenance of
Urban Sewerage

2 Order Book

2XTTM Revenues
Rs 2000 crore
Orders from Grasim, Malco, Vedanta
Copper, Saint Gobain, JSW, RINL &
Sail Rourkela and Burnpur and Vizag Steel

3 Technical Partnerships

Hamon, Danieli, Siemens
Envirotherm, CPT, Angerlehner

4 Produce Wind Turbines up to 120 MW

Holds 300 MW of Clean Energy
Portfolio with Orient Green Power
$ 75 mn raised as Equity
VC Funding Rs 322 crore

5 Financials

3 Year Revenue and PAT CAGR Growth
120 % and 117 per centFY08
9 M Revenues to December 2008 Rs/Cr616699
9 M PAT to December 2008 Rs/cr25.835
Equity (FV Rs 10) Rs/Cr4343
EPS Rs (Non Annualised)69.8
TTM EPS expected at 13
Engineering Sector FY10 PE15
18 Month PO Rs195-225
 

6 IPO of 5 mn shares at Rs 300 per share

raised Rs 150 crore, stock listed
(Most of IPO money still held as cash)

7 Who Owns Shriram EPC?%

Shriram Industrial Holdings Chennai42.6
Galleon Special Opportunities Fund4.61
New Vernon1.86
New Vernon4.04
Bessemer Ventures24.18
Argonaut Ventures2.88
NMS1.53
RIL MF4.18
UTI MF8.74
Total Promoters+Institutions %94.62

Public Holding Of Equity %5.38

8 Whom To Rely Upon?

JNNURM Rs 50,000 crore spread over
2007-2012
Sewer Rehab in 4 Metros Rs 1500 crore
Massive Sewer Rehab Orders from Municipal
Bodies of Chennai, Ahmedabad & Delhi

Cooling Towers for Jindal, Tisco. L&T
Reliance, Vedanta, Adani & Bhel

9 Orient Green Power may be listed
separately
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381