Thursday, May 6, 2010

Market Outlook 6th May 2010

SPOT / CASH INDEX LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   5124.90 ( -0.46 %) -23.60       
 1 23
Resistance 5220.825293.13   5336.12  
Support 5105.525062.53 4990.22

BSE Sensex 17087.96 ( -0.29 %) -49.18      
 1 23
Resistance 17367.3217597.50 17730.18
Support 17004.4616871.78 16641.60

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks
Indian Bank, DCB, UCO Bank, Andhra Bank, ICSA, Patni, Pir Health,  Vijaya Bank, Uniphos & Ashok Ley.  
And this is list of 10 Weak Stocks
Balrampur Chini, Renuka, ABB, Tech Mahindra, HDIL, JP Associates, Tata Steel, Bajaj Hind, Sun Pharma & Aditya Birla.
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend

Today Market Update on 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
FII05-May-2010 2027.223616.9 -1589.68
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category DateBuy Value Sell ValueNet Value
DII05-May-2010 1832.471141.32 691.15

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5103 level, selling may continue up to 5091-5093 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5061-5063 zone by non-stop. 
Hurdle at 5130 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 5143-5145 zone by non-stop. 
Sell if touches 5193-5195 zone. Stop Loss at 5223-5225 zone. 
On Negative Side, break below 5011-5013 zone can create panic up to 4981-4983 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.

Short-Term Investors: 
Bullish Trend. 
Up Side Target at 5379.95 level. 
Stop Loss at 5200.05 level. 
Now SL Triggered. Expect unwinding up to 5110.10 level by non-stop. Consecutive 3 closes below 5110.10 level can take it up to 5020.15 level and have caution.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
JPASSOCIAT FUTURES 
IPL tax liability notice to JPASSOCIAT. 

Technicals: JPASSOCIAT FUTURES 
It went down on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Do not worry about this fall &

Bears rigged. 

Bears eyeing a Target of 129.70 level on down side. Technically it should rebound at around this level. 

On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 143.10 level and have caution. Bears will be scared too.

JINDALSTEL FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
Jindal Steel & Power Ltd has announced the financial results for the quarter & year ended March 31st 2010. 

The Company has posted a net profit of INR 5489.90 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2010 as compared to INR 3568.60 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2009. Total Income has increased from INR 18741.50 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2009 to INR 24872.10 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2010. 

The Company has posted a net profit of INR 14796.90 million for the year ended March 31st 2010 as compared to INR 15364.80 million for the year ended March 31, 2009. Total Income has decreased from INR 77994.30 million for the year ended March 31st 2009 to INR 74849.00 million for the year ended March 31st 2010. 
The Group has posted consolidated net profit of INR 9633.80 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2010 as compared to INR 8939.10 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2009.  
Total Income has increased from INR 28765.40 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2009 to INR 32058.90 million for the quarter ended March 31st 2010. 

The Group has posted consolidated net profit of INR 36345.60 million for the year ended

March 31st 2010 as compared to INR 30071.50 million for the year ended March 31st 2009.  

Total Income has increased from INR 109133.70 million for the year ended March 31st 2009 to INR 111518.20 million for the year ended March 31st 2010.

Technicals: JINDALSTEL FUTURES (5 Trading Day's Holding) 
It fallen in last 5 Trading Days. Real Selling too. 
Bears eyeing a Target of 665.20 level on down side. Not far away from current levels. That is disappointing too. 
On Positive Side, if Start Recovers then expect a jump up to 752.00 level and have caution. Will you take this amount of risk in this scrip?

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION 
It went up on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged.
 
Bull's eyeing a Target of 98.70 level on upper side.

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 49.25 level and have caution.

TATAMOTORS 800 PUT OPTION 
It went up on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged. 

Bull's eyeing a Target of 23.40 level on upper side.  
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 2.70 level and have caution. Huge risk too.

Equity:
INFOSYSTCH (NSE Cash) 
Weakening Rupee helping IT Stocks. IT companies earning most of their revenue through United States. Strong Dollar will help their balance sheets.
  
Technicals: INFOSYSTCH (NSE Cash) 
It went up on yesterday & it was a surprise too. Do not get excited & Bulls rigged.

Bull's eyeing a Target of 2808.00 level on upper side. It looks over ambitious too from

current levels, if you look at Negative Global Cues. 
On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts, then expect a slide up to 2610.00 level and have caution. Too far on down side & high risk involved too.

SKUMARSYNF (NSE Cash)  
Textile and apparel manufacturer, S Kumars Nationwide Limited (SKNL) has entered into a strategic global licensing agreement with Donna Karan International (DKI), part of LVMH.  

According to the 80:20 joint venture, the manufacturers will make and market DKI's popular DKNY menswear range across the world, except Japan where DKI has a licensee already. 

The JV has helped in establishing SKNL UK, which will be instrumental with sourcing,

designing, producing and distributing the entire DKNY menswear range globally. SKNL's Vice-Chairman and Managing Director, Nitin S. Kasliwal commented, "We will be investing $20-25 million (around Rs 111 crore) over three years in the joint venture." DKI's stake will come down to 10 percent as SKNL India's investments increase. The agreement runs through to 2015, with an option to extend the licence for seven years.  

Explaining the retail plan for the venture, Kasliwal said, "The retail plan for the joint

venture is being worked out. We could open 40-50 stores in the next five years, but then

this is not a mass brand and it is too premature to get into store openings at the moment."  
However, S. Kumars is targetting sales of $300 million (Rs 1,337 crore) from the new

venture, over the next five years, he added. 
DKI is one of the world's leading fashion design houses. It designs, markets and

distributes collections of women's apparel, sportswear, accessories and shoes under Donna Karan and DKNY brands.

Technicals:  SKUMARSYNF (NSE Cash)
It went up on yesterday & in line with the expectations. Real Buying too. 

Bull's eyeing a Target of 79.20 level on upper side. Uptrend is limited from current levels& may be disappointing too. 

On Negative Side, if Profit Booking Starts then expect a slide up to 69.55 level and have caution. Huge risk is there.

INVESTMENT VIEW 
Overweight Banks 
Credit likely to see a strong pick-up in FY11:  
High inflation has historically been followed by a strong pick-up in loan growth. The announcement of fresh investment projects totalling Rs3.8tn (US$88bn) during the December quarter was the highest for a quarter over the past two years. We project credit growth to touch 22% YoY for FY11 and remain positive on the sector.
 

Underperformance of the public-sector banks (PSBs) appears overdone: The underperformance of the PSBs against the private banks over the past couple of months is overdone, and the worst of the asset-quality deterioration will be over by June 2010, with the 10-year government-bond (G-Sec) yield may peak at 8-8.2%, after rising by almost 100bps over the past year. The 10-year G-Sec yield seems to be already discounting at least a 25bps interest-rate/cash-reserve-ratio (CRR) hike in April 2010.
 
BUY State Bank of India as NPL and MTM concerns have been overdone.
 
Private banks to continue to outperform: 

HDFC Bank, Housing Development Finance (HDFC) and Axis Bank remain top picks among the private player, in addition to Power Finance Corp (PFC) and Rural Electrification (REC), as their loan growth will surprise on the upside, and offset the potential compression in interest spreads in FY11. 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381