Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Market Outlook 29th Sep 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks
This is list of 10 strong stocks 
ABB, Renuka, Lic house, DLF, DCB, Federal Bank, IDBI, Tisco, Purva & Triveni, 
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 
Finan Tech, Tulip, Patni, ICSA, GT Offshore, HCC,  Tata Comm, Divi'S Lab, GTL & PTC.   
The daily trend of nifty is in Uptrend 

  • Supp / Resis SPOT/CASH LEVELS FOR INTRADAY
Indices Supp/Resis1 23
Nifty Resistance 6055.776082.03 6114.27
Support 5997.275965.03 5938.77
Sensex Resistance 20180.93 20256.99 20356.48
Support 20005.38 19905.89 19829.83

SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS FOR INTRADAY TRADING
Company Name  Exchange LTP* R1 #1 S1 @1 R2 #2 S2 @2 R3 #3 S3 @3
ABB Ltd. NSE 948.60 980.38 912.43 1012.17 876.27 1048.33 844.48
Abbott India Ltd. NSE 1104.65 1119.30 1095.70 1133.95 1086.75 1142.90 1072.10
Bank of Baroda NSE 879.05 886.63 872.83 894.22 866.62 900.43 859.03
Bank of India NSE 515.95 524.65 499.70 533.35 483.45 549.60 474.75
Banking Index Benchmark Exchange Traded Scheme (Bank BeES) NSE 1224.31 1237.53 1215.54 1250.76 1206.78 1259.52 1193.55
Divi's Laboratories Ltd. NSE 714.10 721.27 709.07 728.43 704.03 733.47 696.87
DLF Ltd. NSE 378.00 383.32 369.87 388.63 361.73 396.77 356.42
Federal Bank Ltd. NSE 405.10 413.05 392.35 421.00 379.60 433.75 371.65
Financial Technologies (India) Ltd. NSE 1221.80 1239.17 1210.27 1256.53 1198.73 1268.07 1181.37
Great Eastern Shipping Company Ltd. NSE 321.85 325.48 315.43 329.12 309.02 335.53 305.38
Great Offshore Ltd. NSE 379.35 383.43 376.63 387.52 373.92 390.23 369.83
GTL Infrastructure Ltd. NSE 45.30 45.95 44.65 46.60 44.00 47.25 43.35
GTL Ltd. NSE 416.45 419.55 412.70 422.65 408.95 426.40 405.85
Hindalco Industries Ltd. NSE 196.00 198.62 192.77 201.23 189.53 204.47 186.92
Hindustan Construction Company Ltd. NSE 60.75 61.38 60.18 62.02 59.62 62.58 58.98
Hindustan Motors Ltd. NSE 24.65 25.32 23.87 25.98 23.08 26.77 22.42
Hindustan Oil Exploration Company Ltd. NSE 241.25 245.40 237.75 249.55 234.25 253.05 230.10
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. NSE 537.30 542.80 533.50 548.30 529.70 552.10 524.20
Hindustan Unilever Ltd. NSE 306.20 309.15 303.90 312.10 301.60 314.40 298.65
Hindustan Zinc Ltd. NSE 1128.80 1141.10 1116.35 1153.40 1103.90 1165.85 1091.60
ICSA-India Ltd. NSE 126.60 128.87 125.17 131.13 123.73 132.57 121.47
IDBI Bank Ltd. NSE 153.30 154.82 151.77 156.33 150.23 157.87 148.72
LIC Housing Finance Ltd. NSE 1445.80 1472.68 1405.63 1499.57 1365.47 1539.73 1338.58
NSE Index NSE 6029.50 6055.77 5997.27 6082.03 5965.03 6114.27 5938.77
Patni Computer Systems Ltd. NSE 442.95 445.30 440.30 447.65 437.65 450.30 435.30
PTC India Ltd. NSE 117.35 119.73 115.58 122.12 113.82 123.88 111.43
Tata Chemicals Ltd. NSE 406.15 412.65 400.90 419.15 395.65 424.40 389.15
Tata Coffee Ltd. NSE 597.50 609.60 588.70 621.70 579.90 630.50 567.80
Tata Communications Ltd. NSE 318.80 322.17 316.77 325.53 314.73 327.57 311.37
Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. NSE 919.65 928.60 912.40 937.55 905.15 944.80 896.20
Tata Motors Ltd. NSE 1080.50 1088.17 1069.67 1095.83 1058.83 1106.67 1051.17
Tata Power Company Ltd. NSE 1348.70 1356.92 1339.27 1365.13 1329.83 1374.57 1321.62
Tata Steel Ltd. NSE 651.65 657.70 643.80 663.75 635.95 671.60 629.90
Tata Teleservices (Maharashtra) Ltd. NSE 22.75 22.95 22.60 23.15 22.45 23.30 22.25
Triveni Engineering & Industries Ltd. NSE 118.30 119.97 116.47 121.63 114.63 123.47 112.97
Tulip Telecom Ltd. NSE 167.35 170.13 165.43 172.92 163.52 174.83 160.73
   *LTP stands for Last Traded Price as on Tuesday, September 28, 2010 4:05:05 PM
    #1R1   stands for Resistance level 1                         @1S1   stands for Support level 1
    #2R2   stands for Resistance level 2                         @2S2   stands for Support level 2
    #3R3   stands for Resistance level 3                         @3S3   stands for Support level 3
    
    The levels given above are with respect to previous closing price on the NSE / BSE. 


  Corporate News Headline
IDFC, which is raising Rs. 34 bn via public issue of infrastructure bonds, may also tap the overseas market for raising a further Rs. 30 bn, a top company official said. (BS)
Sun Pharma has received tentative approval from US health regulator to sell a generic version of Rilutek tablets, used in treating central nervous system diseases, in the American market. (BS)
ONGC offered Kuwaiti national oil firm a stake in its Rs. 195 bn mega petrochemical project in Gujarat, even as the Gulf nation expressed a desire to bid with Indian firm in the forthcoming round of NELP. (BS)

  Economic and Political Headline
Despite only Rs. 20 bn mopped in the first half through disinvestment, the finance ministry said it is "confident" of meeting the Rs. 400 bn target for the current fiscal, as there is enough appetite in the market. "We are confident of meeting the Rs. 400 bn target. There is enough appetite in the market," Disinvestment Secretary Sumit Bose said. (BS)
Home prices in 20 US cities rose at a slower pace in July from a year earlier, reflecting a drop in sales following the end of a government tax credit. The S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increased 3.2% from July 2009, the smallest year-over-year gain since March, the group said. (Bloomberg)
The UK economy's fastest quarter of growth in nine years was fuelled by rebounding consumer spending and inventories and the biggest jump in government spending since 2008. Gross domestic product expanded 1.2% in the three months through June from the first quarter, the Office for National Statistics said in London. (Bloomberg)

US stocks advanced, erasing most of yesterday's drop, as Walgreen Co. led a rally in consumer- staples and health companies and investors speculated the Federal Reserve will buy more debt to safeguard the economy. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones and S&P 500 added 0.07%, 0.43% and 0.49%, respectively. Walgreen jumped 11% as earnings topped estimates. Pfizer Inc. and Johnson & Johnson paced gains in health-care shares as the Supreme Court agreed to hear an appeal seeking to block thousands of public hospitals from suing over a federal discount-drug program.

UK stocks were little changed after a late rally in mining companies offset a worse-than-expected US consumer confidence report. The FTSE 100 slipped 5.02 points or 0.09% at 5,578.44. Xstrata Plc, the world's fourth-largest copper producer, Antofagasta Plc and Rio Tinto Plc all rebound with copper prices. Sage Group Plc jumped 5.1% amid reports the company may be a takeover target. Man Group Plc led declining shares after the hedge fund manager forecast first-half profit will drop by more than 55%.

Day Trading Guide

DLF

We recommend a buy in the stock with tight stop-loss at Rs 373 levels.

ICICI Bank

Avoid trading in this stock as the near-term stance is cautious.

Infosys

Fresh short position can be initiated if the stock fails to surpass Rs 3,030 levels with fixed stop-loss.

L&T

Make use of dips to buy the stock with tight stop-loss at Rs 2,034 levels.

ONGC

Fresh short position is recommended only if ONGC slips below Rs 1,441 with stiff stop-loss.

Reliance Capital

Initiate fresh short position if the counter drops below Rs 802 levels with tight stop-loss.

Reliance Communications

The stock is experiencing selling interest at higher levels. Utilise rallies to sell the stock while maintaining tight stop-loss at Rs 172 levels.

Reliance Industries

Fresh long position is recommended only if the stock surges above Rs 1,013 levels with rigid stop-loss.

SBI

As long as SBI hovers above Rs 3,170 levels, the near-term stance stays positive. We recommend a buy with tight stop-loss at Rs 3,170 levels.

Nifty Futures

Fresh long position can initiated if Nifty Futures moves above 6,070 levels with stiff stop-loss.

Yoganand D.

BL Research Bureau

Bulk SMS ban affects alert-driven trading

Excitement among retail investors is missing despite rally.


R.Yegya Narayanan

Coimbatore, Sept. 28

With the ban on bulk SMS imposed by the Government last week ahead of the judgment in the Babri Masjid case having silenced the voluminous SMS alerts being sent by share broking houses to their clients, the volume of transactions in the retail segment appears to have taken a mild hit with a section of the brokers here.

But what has come as a relief to them is that with the market booming, the retail investors have been on their own placing orders with the brokers based on market movement and the inputs they get through the electronic media, access to which is available even within the premises of broking houses during trading hours.

Volumes fall

Speaking to Business Line here on Tuesday, Mr K. Annamalai, Managing Director, Annamalai Capital Services (P) Ltd, Coimbatore, and a former President of the Coimbatore Stock Exchange, said since the ban came into force, he had seen a discernible fall in the volume of transactions carried out by retail clients. Normally, in counters about which the investors get alerts through SMS from major corporate broking houses, the volume perks up by about 10-15 per cent depending on price level with low priced stocks, inviting more speculative investment than high-priced counters based on the SMS alerts.

He said major broking houses such as Enam, SBICAP Securities, etc and some private analysts send alerts to their clients during the course of the trading hours, giving their inputs about the likely movement of certain stocks and such SMS have influence on the trading decision of retail clients. But with the mobile handsets falling silent during trading (only in so far as such equity-alert SMS are concerned), the volume of alert-driven trading that would have otherwise taken place, but for the SMS ban has fallen by about 10-15 per cent. Mr Annamalai, whose company is a sub-broker of Enam Securities Direct Pvt Ltd, said the SMS ban did not otherwise have any significant impact on trading as the investors had ready access to the electronic media, providing live inputs about market behaviour and information about corporate performances based on which the investors could take a call about their investment decisions. But more importantly, with the market on a song, investors are making their own decisions on investment and with most of them being day traders, they look for only small gain in their investment before squaring off.

But what he missed, despite the booming market, was the zest in investment among the retail clients. He said when the Sensex reached its peak of 21,000 points during 2008, there was frenzied trading even among the retail investors and there was constant clamour for raising the trading limits from them as stocks soared higher and higher. Though the market is inching towards its historical peak now after sinking to 8,000 levels during early 2009, the excitement among the retail investors is missing.

F&O norms

Mr Annamalai reasoned that a possible factor could be the market has not been able to correctly anticipate the sectors or the individual counters that would lead the (present) rally. Many of the stocks in which the investors had taken position such as the Reliance group (of both brothers) shares, stocks in the infrastructure and telecom space and even traditional speculative counters such as the IFCI have not been able to reach their previous peaks, and investors who entered the market at the previous high are unable to exit them as the current rally has by passed many of these stocks. The tightening of the F&O norms and the restrictions on carrying over short positions overnight has also led to cautious trading by retail investors.


Reliance Cap awaits IRDA norms to list insurance arm

Will be among front runners to seek banking licence.


 
A shareholder walks past a hoarding at the Reliance Capital's AGM held in Mumbai on Tuesday.

Our Bureau (business line)

Mumbai, Sept. 28

Listing of its insurance business is one of the ways that Reliance Capital will unlock value in Reliance Life, Mr Anil Ambani, Chairman of the company, said at its AGM on Tuesday.

"IRDA is currently at an advanced stage of finalising the guidelines for the listing of life insurance companies. Once this is done, we will explore the possibility of creating value by listing our life insurance business," he said.

Reliance Capital will also be among the front runners to apply for a banking licence, should it be eligible when the regulators finalise guidelines for the same, said Mr Ambani.

The RBI, last month, had come out with a discussion paper on the revised guidelines for granting of banking licenses. Mr Ambani said that the company has regarded banking as a "high priority" sector with "huge potential opportunity". Reliance Capital, part of Reliance-Anil Dhirubhai Ambani Group, has interests in insurance, mutual funds and non-banking finance

Mr Ambani said that the Reliance Capital plans on having a presence across all segments in the exchange business. "We will soon have a 26 per cent stake in a commodities futures exchange. We entered the exchange business in late 2009."

Bonus issue

Reliance Capital announced a dividend of 65 per cent; Mr Ambani said the Board will consider a bonus issue next year.

The company took an enabling resolution to raising capital through equity dilution through the Qualified Institutional Placement route.

Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-29Sep2010.htm

Buy / Sell (Sep 28, 2010)
 BuySell Net
FII3339.382766.25 +573.13
DII1087.891993.21 -905.32

*Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES. 

Disclaimer: "I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381