Purva, GTL Infra, Finance Tech, MTNL, UCO Bank, SCI, BEML, DCB, Dish TV & Pantaloon Retail.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Jindal Steel, LITL, Reliance, Maruti, Balrampur Chini, Hind Uni Lvr, State Bank Of India, Glaxo, HDFC & McDowell-N.
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Below 5251 & 5261 levels, expect profit booking up to 5227-5229 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5205-5207 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5278-5280 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue 5285 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5300-5302 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5307-5309 zone, can take it up to 5329-5331 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at 5198-5200 zone. Stop Loss at 5176-5178 zone.
Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity: HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 384 level, then it can tumble up to 380 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 377 level.
Rally up to 392 & 393 levels may be possible.
Cross above 397 level, this scrip will explode up to 401 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 405 level by non-stop.
RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 905 level, then it can tumble up to 900 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 889 level.
Rally up to 923 & 929 levels may be possible.
Cross above 943 level, this scrip will explode up to 949-951 zone by non-stop.
GAS AUTHORITY (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias. Rally may continue up to 443 & 444 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 447 level by non-stop.
Below 434 level, expect profit booking up to 426 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 423 level by non-stop.
NMDC (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Month.
STC (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
ENGINEERS (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Week.
DREDGING CORPN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
BRANDHOUSE RETAILS (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
Excellent Buys:
Buy ELECTRO STEEL CA (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 51.00 level.
Buy JK LAKSHMI CEMEN (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 80.50 level.
Buy KWALITY DAIRY (I) (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 142.70 level.
OPTIONS (NSE):NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 35 level is the support level & 61 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
RELIANCE 1110 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Negative bias.
Today's levels: 11 level is the support level & 26 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):TRIVENI ENGG & INDS FUTURES:
Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 111 level is the support level & 130 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
5274.85
( 0.43 %)
22.65
1
2
3
Resistance
5301.92
5328.98
5365.47
Support
5238.37
5201.88
5174.82
17641.08
( 0.49 %)
86.78
1
2
3
Resistance
17733.95
17826.83
17941.05
Support
17526.85
17412.63
17319.75
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
18-Jan-2010
2577.75
2424.85
152.9
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
DII
18-Jan-2010
993
1014.46
-21.46
INVESTMENT BUY:
CITY UNION BANK (BSE Code:532210)
1 Year Target 45.30.
Stop Loss at 27.30.
INVESTMENT VIEW (May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Bharat Gears Ltd.
(BSE Code 505688: Rs.60.70/-)
Belonging to Apollo Tyres Group, BGL is biggest manufacturer of Gears for Auto Industry in India. Company has two Plants (Faridabad and Mumbra). Apart from Gears, it also produces Furnaces and other Automotive Components. It has reputed customers like:
Telco
New Holland
John Deere
VST Tractors
TMA
TDI
Carraro
Dana Corporation, USA
Company has good track record. However, last year its performance suffered, mainly due to decline in demand and fall in metal prices.
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
Cr. Cr. Cr.
Net Sales 260.00 236.00 197.00
Depreciation 9.83 9.59 10.00
PAT 4.04 10.00 8.80
EPS Rs. 5.17 12.80 11.25
Cash EPS 17.75 25.05 24.05
From the above, can be observed that Company had very good profit margins in the past. With revival in demand, BGL is likely to regain the lost glory:
H1/09-10 H1/08-09 2009-10E 2010-11E
Net Sales 122.00 150.00 265.00 295.00
Net Profit 3.01 6.07 9.00 11.50
Cash Profit 7.93 10.75 18.50 21.00
Equity 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82
EPS Rs. 3.85 7.75 11.50 14.70
Cash EPS 10.15 13.75 23.65 26.85
In H1, Company has reported PAT of 3.01 crs. In Q1, Company had tiny profit of 30 lacs and hence, Q2 has witnessed very good profits. H1 of last year was better but H2 was very bad (losses). Profits in H1 of Current Year marks turnaround and revival for BGL.
Valuations: BGL is available at extremely tempting valuations:
1. Current Market Cap is just Rs. 43 crs. which is 16% of 09-10E sales.
2. Book Value is Rs. 50/-.
3. Stock is available at 4.78 x FY10E EPS and 2.32 x FY10E Cash EPS.
4. Stock is quoting at 3.75 x FY11E EPS and 2.05 x FY11 Cash EPS.
Any sharp rise in metal prices can dent its bottom line. Otherwise, BGL is poised for decent growth and better profit margins. Scrip can appreciate 30% in next 2 months and it can go up by 80% - 100% in less than 15 months.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
____ __ Strong Futures This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Purva, Dish TV, GTL Infra, MLL, SCI, Bhushan Steel, Tech Mahindra, Acc Ltd, Ambuja Cement & Century Text.. Weak Futures This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: Maruti, Jindal Steel, HDFC, State Bank Of India, Reliance, Hind Uni Lvr, LITL, Canara Bank, Hero Honda & McDowell-N..
Market Trend is up ____________________________________________________________
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Below 5245 level, selling may continue up to 5242-5244 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5233-5235 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5264 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 5278-5280 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5289-5291 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5292-5294 zone, can take it up to 5302-5304 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 5230-5232 zone. Stop Loss at 5220-5222 zone.
Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity: TATA MOTORS (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 789 level, then it can tumble up to 783 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 775 level.
Rally up to 803-805 zone & 811 level may be possible.
Cross above 818 & 819 levels, this scrip will explode up to 826 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 832-834 zone by non-stop.
ABG SHIPYARD (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 296 level, then it can tumble up to 253 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 250 level.
Rally up to 300-302 zone & 305 level may be possible.
Cross above 346 level, this scrip will explode up to 351-353 zone by non-stop.
TECH MAHINDRA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 1126 level, then it can tumble up to 1100 & 1111 levels by non-stop. Buy at around these levels with a Stop Loss of 1086 level.
Rally up to 1148 level may be possible.
Cross above 1158 & 1170 levels, this scrip will explode up to 1195 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1204 level by non-stop.
BHARTI SHIPYARD (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative news within a Month.
SELAN EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGY (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative news within a Month.
TATA ELXSI (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive news within a Week.
BRIGADE ENTERPRISES (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive news within Three Months.
OPTIONS (NSE):NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern.
Today's levels: 38 level is the support level & 51 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
Interesting Point: 5 Days Chart indicates rally up to 104 level with a Stop Loss of 41 level.
Conclusion: If 51 level is comfortably crossed, then traders can buy with a Stop Loss of 38 level today. Negative factor is that trend is sideways pattern. Risk of loss is there and take a calculated risk too.
RELIANCE 1110 PUT OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern.
Today's levels: 18 level is the support level & 28 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):DISH TV (I) FUTURES
Sideways Trend with Positive Bias.
Above 51 level, rally may continue up to 52 level by non-stop.
Below 50 level, expect profit booking up to 48 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 47 level by non-stop.
SCI FUTURES:
Explosive. If Friday's low of 164 level is protected then rally may continue up to 186 level today & within expiry it will zoom up to 193 level.
If bulls can't able to protect Friday's low of 164level then it can tumble up to 157 level within expiry.
INVESTMENT BUY: MUKTA ARTS (532357)
Recommended to buy and can hold up to end of this month.
Daily Chart: If Friday's low of 62 level is protected, then rally up to 89 level also possible.
Forecast up to 31.01.2010:
If 58 level is protected, then rally up to 94 level also possible.
5252.20
( -0.15 %)
-7.70
1
2
3
Resistance
5273.88
5295.57
5311.28
Support
5236.48
5220.77
5199.08
17554.30
( -0.17 %)
-30.57
1
2
3
Resistance
17619.73
17685.16
17730.47
Support
17508.99
17463.68
17398.25
INVESTMENT VIEW
Banswara Syntex –BUY
(BSE Code:503722) Rationale for Recommendation:
Mettle of management is tested when industry is passing through the worst times and, what type of financial performance company dishes out during such times. Due to global overcapacity in spinning sector and also global meltdown, Year 2007 and 2008 had been the worst ever for Indian Textile Industry which led to majority of Cos. in this sector reporting big losses. Still, BSL made decent cash profit and reasonable net profit during these period which shows that BSL, a fully integrated textile co., is one of the most efficient in Indian Textile Sector.
Further, in last 6 months, fortunes of Indian Textile Industry have taken a U-turn which will enable BSL to report best ever performance for 2 years atleast and hence the recommendation because, scrip is still available at very low valuations.
Background:
BSL is an integrated textile co. engaged in the production of cotton yarn, synthetic blended yarn, polywool yarn, fabric weaving, fabric processing, Trouser/Jacket making garment factories and Captive Power Plant. Co. has 1.35 lakh spindles, 206 most modern looms to produce 2.2 mn. meter fabric per month, 2 lakh garment pieces per month, 27 MW Power Plant (18 MW Thermal and 9 MW Furnace Oil) and 30 mn. meters per year Fabric Processing capacity. In its weaving division, company has diversified its fabric business towards jacquard and technical textile like laminated fabric, fire retardant fabrics, water repellent fabrics, anti-fungus and bacterial processing fabric etc. Garment Division is supplier to all major domestic brands like Park Avenue, Louis Phillipe, etc.
Over last 4 years, Co. undertook capex of approx. Rs. 250 crs. for expansion/modernization which has enabled it to significantly expand its capacity of fabric and garments, widen the range into wool mix and cotton yarn. Now, Co. is set to reap benefits of ramped up capacities and revived demand scenario.
Financial Highlights:
2008 - 09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06
Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr
Turnover
(including exports) 558.95 451.54 413.43 344.95
Exports 366.44 281.52 256.94 212.18
PBDT 40.69 27.47 39.04 29.02
Depreciation 29.40 21.80 16.26 13.31
PAT 9.59 4.42 14.94 9.26
Dividend % 18% 12% 20% 20%
Equity 13.08 13.08 12.51 7.77
Reserves 76.22 69.45 64.63 52.99
Net worth 89.31 82.53 77.14 60.76
Loans 354.06 332.07 230.39 176.82
Net Block 330.90 319.15 244.52 170.38
Book Value Rs. 68.14 62.97 61.50 50.76
Performance Review 2008-09: During the year, production of Yarn improved by 10%, fabric by 28% and garments by 36%. Gross revenues increased by 24%. Co. increased the sale of fabric and garments, as %age of Gross Income, from 44% in 07-08 to 50% in 08-09. It also sold Power to SEB, generating 4.72 cr. income.
Profit before extraordinary items, depreciation and tax at 48.22 crs. was up by 76% as against 27.47 crs. in 07-08. It booked forex loss of 7.53 crs. (MTM, not involving cash outgo) during the year.
Export performance has improved every year for last 5 years, cumulative growth at 129%.
BSL also has a JV named Carreman Fabrics India Ltd. with weaving Plant of 60 looms in which BSL has 50% stake. JV earned Net Profit of Rs. 95 lakhs during the year. BSL re-started production of Power on Furnace Oil based Power Plant, after considering commercial viability. In 2008-09, EPS stood at 7.33 but Cash EPS was 29.80.
Future Outlook:
H A L F Y E A R E N D E D
30/09/2009 30/09/2008
Rs/Cr Rs/Cr
Net Sales 310.46 271.62
Depreciation 14.98 14.56
Net Profit 13.86 0.09
EPS Rs. 10.58 0.07
Cash EPS Rs. 22.03 11.83
Banswara has reported fabulous results for H1 wherein, its PAT is 13.86 crs. as against near 9 lacs in H1 of previous year. Cash EPS for H1 is 22.03.
2 0 0 9 - 10E 2 0 1 0 - 1 1E
Revenues 630.00 750.00
Depreciation 30.00 33.00
Net Profit 31.00 53.00
Equity 13.08 14.73
EPS Rs. 23.97 35.94
Cash EPS Rs. 46.38 57.68
P.E. Ratio 3.51 2.42
Cash P.E. Ratio 1.82 1.50
BSL is likely to witness dramatic and quantitative improvement in its working in current and next year atleast due to various factors. Firstly, since the beginning of 2009, Yarn selling realization have gone up by nearly 20% whereas, Fibre (R/M) prices have gone up just 7-8%. Secondly, there will be inherent improvement in profitability driven by superior revenue mix in the form of substantially higher contribution of fabric/garment divisions. In Textile Industry, in order to be more competitive, value addition is the only answer and BSL is constantly adding to its weaving and garmenting capacity. Co. is increasing consumption of self-produced yarn for fabric and own fabric for garments. Presently, 35% of Yarn is consumed for fabrics and 15% of fabric production is consumed by its garment factory.
Future Plans:
a) Company has decided to set up one more 18 MW Power Plant at capex of just Rs. 50 crs. (less than Rs. 3/- Cr per MW. Part of the generation will be for captive use to meet enhanced energy requirement in future and more than 50% should be for merchant sale. It should generate Cash Profit of Rs. 15 cr. on annual basis from Q1FY12 onwards.
b) Company has also chalked out expansion, modernization and diversification programme involving Rs. 60 crs. Out of it, 9.55 Cr. will be spent to enhance readymade garment production, 8.07 Cr. for increasing dyeing capacity, 6.29 Cr. for yarn dyeing plant, 8.19 Cr. to increase fabric weaving capacity and 18.68 Cr. for spinning capacity.
Valuations:
BSL has emerged as one of the finest textile cos. in India as is evident from financial highlights of last 4 years wherein, its total sales, exports have been going up at a decent pace and promoters had vision of forward integration which prevented BSL from plunging into losses (like so many other standalone spinning mills). Stock is trading at:
1. 3.51 x FY10E EPS.
2. 1.82 x FY10E Cash EPS.
3. 2.40 x FY11E EPS.
4. 1.50 x FY11E Cash EPS.
Current Market Cap of BSL is Rs. 113 crs. Where as, Co. is likely to make cumulative Cash Profit of 147 crs. in 2009 - 11. Further, current market cap is 16% and 15% of FY10E and FY11E sales. B.V. will rise to Rs. 81-84 at the end of current year and, Rs. 110 - 112 as on March 2011. Significant appreciation of Indian currency is the main risk which can impact its margins.
In International Market, Co. has established a strong name for itself in terms of delivery schedule, reliability and quality which enables BSL to fetch higher realization.
BSL is a value buy.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
Day Trading Guide
DLF
The stock is experiencing selling pressure at higher levels. Fresh short position can be initiated if it slips below Rs 380 with tight stop-loss.
ICICI Bank
As long as ICICI Bank trades below Rs 853, the near-term outlook stays negative. We recommend a sell.
Infosys
Fresh long position is recommended only if the stock moves above Rs 2690, with tight stop-loss.
L&T
The near-term stance is bearish for the stock. We recommend a sell with stop at Rs 1665.
ONGC
As long as ONGC hovers above Rs 1200, bullish momentum holds. We recommend a buy with stop at Rs 1200.
Reliance Capital
Fresh short position can be initiated if the stock decline below Rs 884, with tight stop-loss.
Reliance Communications
The near-term outlook is positive for the stock. We recommend a buy.
Reliance Industries
Initiate fresh short position if RIL tumbles below Rs 1094, with stiff stop-loss.
SBI
We recommend a sell as the near-term outlook is bearish.
Nifty Futures
Fresh short position can be initiated if Nifty futures decline below 5225, with stiff stop-loss.
All moves tied to bank rates
Players bet on continuation of fiscal stimulus, short-term liquidity flow.
Market players expect the RBI to suck up excess liquidity and keep stimulus steps in place.
Dalal Street may show an upward bias in the short-term. The market has shed its apprehension over an imminent rate hike by the central bank. Players seem to expect that the RBI will not hike policy rates in the Credit Policy, scheduled on January 29, in view of slow growth in credit off-take. Instead, they said, the central bank may mop up excess liquidity or make liquidity dearer to test the waters.
Expectations are that the RBI may increase cash reserve ratio – a percentage of deposits banks must keep with the RBI – by not more than 50 basis points. Also repo or reverse repo rates may also be tinkered with marginally. A repo rate is the interest banks have to pay RBI for borrowing from the central bank. A reverse repo is what the RBI pays banks for funds.
In the fortnight ended December 25, bank credit growth was just 12.2 per cent year-on-year. But Morgan Stanley in a recent note said this number may be misleading. "We believe that underlying credit growth is probably stronger than that implied by the headline year-on-year number. Last year during this period, bank credit growth accelerated sharply for about two months due to the shift in corporate borrowing from fixed income mutual funds and non-banking financial companies. As the base effect should normalise by January-February 2010, bank credit growth should pick up to 15-16 per cent Y-on-Y."
Fiscal Boosters
Moreover, it believed that bank credit growth was a lagging indicator. It reckoned that a sharp pick-up in industrial production growth, continuing since June last year, should be reflected in bank credit demand over the next two months. "We believe that the sequential bank credit growth trend has already started accelerating, indicating that year-on-year growth will move very quickly over the next two months," it added.
The market is assuming that the Government will not withdraw fiscal stimulus in a hurry. The other assumption in the short term is that liquidity flow is going to be steady.
The fiscal and monetary stimuli had helped the corporate sector earn better. The current equity price appreciation is a function of liquidity inflow. However, the medium-term fundamentals may weaken, some analysts said.
Even if the forthcoming monetary policy measures do not hit the interest of the corporate sector, the fiscal measures of the Government, including the Union Budget, may not be as corporate friendly as last year.
The pro-poor policies, which are dismissed by market economists as populist, look like an imperative step for policy makers this year. Certain social, environmental and internal security issues are gaining in economic and political importance. If political rhetoric is any indication, the corporate sector should be ready for a trade-off between lower growth in profit and expansion of the market.
Cost of interest and commodities are likely to put pressure on profit growth. If stock prices remain liquidity-driven like last year, they would overtake the fundamentals faster than anticipated.
But the bulls insist that apprehensions are being overplayed. Their contention is that the Government would generate additional funds through higher dividend and disinvestment of the public sector enterprises. A tilt in favour of growth – particularly in the infrastructure sector – is likely to unleash raw economic power to include all.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
15-Jan-2010
2010.27
2940.36
-930.09
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Strong & Weak futures This is list of 10 strong futures: GTL Infra, Bhushan Steel, Sterling Biotech, JSW Steel, MLL, Siemens, Recltd, Aban Off shore, KS Oils & Grasim. And this is list of 10 Weak futures: Maruti, HDFC, Hind Uni Lvr, State Bank Of India, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank, Reliance, Glaxo, GT Offshore & Syndicate Bank. Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5266-5268 zone, rally may continue up to 5277-5279 zone by non-stop.
Support at 5249-5251 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 5236-5238 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5224-5226 zone by non-stop.
Buy if touches 5213-5215 zone. Stop Loss at 5201-5203 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5289-5291 zone can take it up to 5300-5302 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue. Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00. Equity:
JSW STEEL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 1163 & 1170 levels, then it can tumble up to 1152 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 1139 level.
Rally up to 1194 & 1200 levels may be possible.
Cross above 1212 & 1218 levels, this scrip will explode up to 1230 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1237 level by non-stop.
PUNJ LLOYD (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 221 level, then it can tumble up to 214-216 zone by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 213 level.
Rally up to 225 level may be possible.
Cross above 226-228 zone, this scrip will explode up to 232-234 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 237 level by non-stop.
SESA GOA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 415 level, then it can tumble up to 408 & 412 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 406 level.
Rally up to 423 & 424 levels may be possible.
Cross above 429-431 zone, this scrip will explode up to 435 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 440 level by non-stop.
ONGC CORPN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
ABAN OFFSHORE (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
TATA TELESERVICE (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
UTTAM STEEL (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Month.
GUJ HOTELS (BSE Code:507960):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
GUJ AMBUJA EXPOR (BSE Code:524226):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week. INVESTMENT BUY:
R S SOFTWARE (BSE Code:517447)
Recommended to buy for a Target of 75.60 within a Week. Market Buzz:
OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Negative bias.
Will slide up to 47 level on down side.
If rallies, then expect short covering up to 62 level.
RELIANCE 1110 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 22.00-24.00 zone.
Upward Target at 41.00-43.00 zone. STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BHARAT FORGE FUTURES
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 296 level, then it can tumble up to 288 & 291 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 287 level.
Rally up to 302-304 zone may be possible.
Cross above 310 & 313 levels, this scrip will explode up to 316 level by non-stop.
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPORATION FUTURES:
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
HCL TECH FUTURES:
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
(May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Murli Industries-BUY
Co has reported EPS of 20 And Cash Eps of 43 in H1. 09-10 Eps can be 45 and Cash Eps 90 in current year .Presently, co is in business of:
18mw power plant
Pulp Mill
Writing Paper
Newsprint
Packaging paper
Soya DOC
Refined Oil
Last year, fire had taken place in its paper plant which destroyed its raw material and finished product. Subsequently 3 months strike took place last year only. In current year, performance of soya division has been poor due to poor crop caused by bad monsoon.
3 months back , co has commissioned 80,000 tonnes capacity SBS board plant which is supposed to be most modern.
Co has bought back FCCB this month which has resulted in saving of approx 15 cr to the co.
Main trigger: Recently co has commissioned 3 mn tonne cement plant and 50 mw captive power plant at 819 cr only. Equity is just 10 cr. Hence, 10-11Turnover can be 1600 crs and Eps can be more than Rs 120/.
Co has announced to hold board meeting for stock split and preferential offer of warrants on
January 18, 2010.
Co wants to set up 3 more cement plants of 3 mn tonne each in North, East and South.
TECHNICALS:
MURLI INDS (NSE Cash):
As per yesterday's chart, slide may continue up to 313.40 level. Any rally up to 393.90 can be used to book profits.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
This is list of 10 strong futures: GTL Infra, MLL, Bhushan Steel, Aban Off shore, KS Oils, Grasim, Jindal Saw, Finance Tech, DCB & Acc Ltd. And this is list of 10 Weak futures: Maruti, Reliance, HDFC, Hero Honda, Glaxo, State Bank Of India, ICICI Bank, GMR Infra, GT Offshore & Lupin. Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Rally may continue up to 5258-5260 zone for time being.
Support at 5220 & 5233 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5191-5193 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5164-5166 zone by non-stop.
Buy if touches 5137-5139 zone. Stop Loss at 5110-5112 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5285-5287 zone can take it up to 5313-5315 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue. Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00. Equity:
MSK PROJECTS (I) (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If does not break 124 level, then traders can buy. Above 126 level, unbelievable levels of 132 & 133 possible and thereafter expect a jump up to 144 & 145 levels.
On Negative Side, slip below 110 & 113 levels, it can tumble up to 105 & 106 levels by non-stop.
PTC (I) (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If does not break 121 level, then traders can buy. Above 124 & 125 levels, unbelievable target of 130 also possible.
On Negative Side, slip below 118 level, it can tumble up to 114-116 zone by non-stop. BATA (I) (NSE Cash)
Explosive. But Stop Loss is too far on down side.
If does not break 207 level, then traders can buy. Above 211 level, expect unbelievable target of 219 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 222-224 zone.
On Negative Side, slip below 201, it can tumble up to 198 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level. SL is too far on down side. GTL INFRASTRUCTURE (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
ABAN OFFSHORE (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
JINDAL SOUTH WEST HOLDINGS (NSE Cash):
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
TECH MAHINDRA (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
BHUSHAN STEEL (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
MURLI INDS (NSE Cash):
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
STERLITE INDS (I) (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
HDFC LTD (NSE Cash):
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bears may get trapped at lower levels. INVESTMENT BUY:
UB ENGG (BSE Code:509992)
Recommended to buy for a Target of 170.00 within a Week. Market Buzz:
(May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Chanos: Banks, Real Estate, construction and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore are prime short candidates!
James S. Chanos built one of the largest fortunes on Wall Street by foreseeing the collapse of Enron and other highflying companies whose stories were too good to be true.
Now Mr. Chanos, a wealthy hedge fund investor, is working to bust the myth of the biggest conglomerate of all: China Inc.
As most of the world bets on China to help lift the global economy out of recession, Mr. Chanos is warning that China's hyperstimulated economy is headed for a crash, rather than the sustained boom that most economists predict.
Its surging real estate sector, buoyed by a flood of speculative capital, looks like "Dubai times 1,000 -- or worse," he frets. He even suspects that Beijing is cooking its books, faking, among other things, its eye-popping growth rates of more than 8 percent.
"Bubbles are best identified by credit excesses, not valuation excesses," he said in a recent appearance on CNBC. "And there's no bigger credit excess than in China." He is planning a speech later this month at the University of Oxford to drive home his point.
As America's pre-eminent short-seller -- he bets big money that companies' strategies will fail -- Mr. Chanos's narrative runs counter to the prevailing wisdom on China. Most economists and governments expect Chinese growth momentum to continue this year, buoyed by what remains of a $586 billion government stimulus program that began last year, meant to lift exports and consumption among Chinese consumers.
Still, betting against China will not be easy. Because foreigners are restricted from investing in stocks listed inside China, Mr. Chanos has said he is searching for other ways to make his bets, including focusing on construction- and infrastructure-related companies that sell cement, coal, steel and iron ore.
Mr. Chanos, 51, whose hedge fund, Kynikos Associates, based in New York, has $6 billion under management, is hardly the only skeptic on China. But he is certainly the most prominent and vocal.
For all his record of prescience -- in addition to predicting Enron's demise, he also spotted the looming problems of Tyco International, the Boston Market restaurant chain and, more recently, home builders and some of the world's biggest banks -- his detractors say that he knows little or nothing about China or its economy and that his bearish calls should be ignored.
"I find it interesting that people who couldn't spell China 10 years ago are now experts on China," said Jim Rogers, who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros and now lives in Singapore. "China is not in a bubble."
Colleagues acknowledge that Mr. Chanos began studying China's economy in earnest only last summer and sent out e-mail messages seeking expert opinion.
But he is tagging along with the bears, who see mounting evidence that China's stimulus package and aggressive bank lending are creating artificial demand, raising the risk of a wave of nonperforming loans.
"In China, he seems to see the excesses, to the third and fourth power, that he's been tilting against all these decades," said Jim Grant, a longtime friend and the editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, who is also bearish on China. "He homes in on the excesses of the markets and profits from them. That's been his stock and trade."
Mr. Chanos declined to be interviewed, citing his continuing research on China. But he has already been spreading the view that the China miracle is blinding investors to the risk that the country is producing far too much.
"The Chinese," he warned in an interview in November with Politico.com, "are in danger of producing huge quantities of goods and products that they will be unable to sell."
In December, he appeared on CNBC to discuss how he had already begun taking short positions, hoping to profit from a China collapse.
In recent months, a growing number of analysts, and some Chinese officials, have also warned that asset bubbles might emerge in China.
The nation's huge stimulus program and record bank lending, estimated to have doubled last year from 2008, pumped billions of dollars into the economy, reigniting growth.
But many analysts now say that money, along with huge foreign inflows of "speculative capital," has been funneled into the stock and real estate markets.
A result, they say, has been soaring prices and a resumption of the building boom that was under way in early 2008 -- one that Mr. Chanos and others have called wasteful and overdone.
"It's going to be a bust," said Gordon G. Chang, whose book, "The Coming Collapse of China" (Random House), warned in 2001 of such a crash.
Friends and colleagues say Mr. Chanos is comfortable betting against the crowd -- even if that crowd includes the likes of Warren E. Buffett and Wilbur L. Ross Jr., two other towering figures of the investment world.
A contrarian by nature, Mr. Chanos researches companies, pores over public filings to sift out clues to fraud and deceptive accounting, and then decides whether a stock is overvalued and ready for a fall. He has a staff of 26 in the firm's offices in New York and London, searching for other China-related information.
"His record is impressive," said Byron R. Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Services. "He's no fly-by-night charlatan. And I'm bullish on China."
Mr. Chanos grew up in Milwaukee, one of three sons born to the owners of a chain of dry cleaners. At Yale, he was a pre-med student before switching to economics because of what he described as a passionate interest in the way markets operate.
His guiding philosophy was discovered in a book called "The Contrarian Investor," according to an account of his life in "The Smartest Guys in the Room," a book that chronicled Enron's rise and downfall.
After college, he went to Wall Street, where he worked at a series of brokerage houses before starting his own firm in 1985, out of what he later said was frustration with the way Wall Street brokers promoted stocks.
At Kynikos Associates, he created a firm focused on betting on falling stock prices. His theories are summed up in testimony he gave to the House Committee on Energy and Commerce in 2002, after the Enron debacle. His firm, he said, looks for companies that appear to have overstated earnings, like Enron; were victims of a flawed business plan, like many Internet firms; or have been engaged in "outright fraud."
That short-sellers are held in low regard by some on Wall Street, as well as Main Street, has long troubled him.
Short-sellers were blamed for intensifying market sell-offs in the fall 2008, before the practice was temporarily banned. Regulators are now trying to decide whether to restrict the practice.
Mr. Chanos often responds to critics of short-selling by pointing to the critical role they played in identifying problems at Enron, Boston Market and other "financial disasters" over the years.
"They are often the ones wearing the white hats when it comes to looking for and identifying the bad guys," he has said.
Technicals:
S&P CNX NIFTY Forecast (Spot):
1 Day outlook is Bullish, but risk is too high.
2 Days outlook is Bullish.
3 Days outlook is Bullish.
4 Days outlook is Bullish.
&
5 Days outlook is Bullish.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice). OPTIONS (NSE): NIFTY 5200 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 77-79 zone.
Upward Target at 114-116 zone. TATA STEEL 640 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 10.00-12.00 zone.
Upward Target at 22.00-24.00 zone. STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ACC FUTURES
Explosive. But Stop Loss is too far on down side.
If does not break 939 level, then traders can buy. Rally may continue up to 958 & 959 levels and thereafter it can zoom up to 969 level. Cross above 1003 & 1013 levels (Unbelievable, because too far on upper side), it can jump up to 1019-1021 zone by non-stop.
On Negative Side, break below 904 level (Unbelievable, because this support is too far on down side), slide may continue up to 895 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 891 level and buy. SL is too far on down side.
GTL FUTURES:
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTIONS FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
PETRONET LNG FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
LANCO INFRATECH FUTURES:
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bears may get trapped at lower levels.
INDIA INFOLINE FUTURES:
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bears may get trapped at lower levels.
M & M FUTURES:
No Trigger as per my calculations. Bears may get trapped at lower levels.
Below 5199-5201 zone, selling may continue up to 5190 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 5167-5169 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 5219 & 5231 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5263-5265zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5295-5297 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5306-5308 zone can take it up to 5337-5339 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 5156-5158 zone. Stop Loss at 5124-5126zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity:
MADHUCON PROJECTS (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If stays at above 181 level, then traders can buy. Above 185 level, rally may continue up to189-191 zone by non-stop.
Slip below 176 level, can take it up to 173 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. SL is too far on down side.
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If stays at above 382-384 zone, then traders can buy. Above 391 level, it can zoom up to398 & 402 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 415 & 419 levels by non-stop.
Slip below 378 level, expect unbelievable profit booking up to 365 level. Buy near this level with a Stop Loss of 361 level.
BHARTI SHIPYARD (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If stays at above 309 level, then traders can buy. Above 316 level, it can zoom up to 325-327zone by non-stop.
Slip below 304 level, can take it up to 301 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. SL is too far on down side.
INFOSYS TECHNOLO (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
TCS (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
THINKSOFT GLOBAL SERVICES (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
MAHINDRA & MAHIN (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
MAYTAS INFRA (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
DISH TV (I) (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
STATE BANK (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
UNITECH (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
INVESTMENT BUY:
CLUTCH AUTO (BSE Code:505052)
Recommended to buy for a Target of 99.80 within a Week.
Market Buzz:
(May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Tantia Construction-A Play On The Growth Of Indian Railways
Railway Projects Awarded To Tantia Constructions During FY09-10
1.Tantia Constructions Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has received a prestigious project from Northern Railway, Headquarters Office, Delhi in the name of TANTIA-CCTL (JV) for Construction of 1.80 Kms. long tunnel on realigned path and carrying out reprofiling work in balance length of existing Tunnel No. 1 including blanketing, earthwork & construction of side drain etc. in Zone E-2 between Tunnel no. 1 Katra end to Road Over Bridge Sambal on Udhampur- Katra section in connection with Udhampur- Srinagar- Baramulla Rail Link for worth Rs. 91,73,56,721.19 (Rupees ninety one crores seventy three lacs fifty six thousand seven hundred twenty one and paise nineteen only).
2.Tantia Constructions Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has received a prestigious project for Construction of Road under Bridge near existing Railway level X-ing near Mundka No. 16 on Delhi- Bhatinda Section From Municipal Corporation of Delhi for worth Rs. 34,62,47,617/- (Rupees Thirty Four crore Sixty two lakh forty seven thousand and six hundred seventeen only).
3. Tantia Constructions Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has received a prestigious project from Eastern Railway, Constructions Department Kolkata in the name of TANTIA-EDCL (JV) for earthwork in filing with required compaction in Rly. embankment, approach road/ back filing of platform wall etc., blanketing, turfing, construction of Minor Bridges etc. and other misc. works from Haripal Station (excluding Haripal Yard) to Tarkeswar Station (excluding yard) in connection with double line from Seoraphuli to Tarkeswar for worth Rs. 19,50,45,328.66 (Rupees Nineteen crore fifty lakh forty five thousand three hundred twenty eight and paise sixty six only).
4.Tantia Constructions Ltd has informed BSE that the Company has received a prestigious project from Government of Meghalaya on September 24, 2009 for Construction of 2 stages Raw Water Pumping System, Augmentation of the capacity of the existing water treatment plant, Laying of Clear Water Gravity Main and Feeder Main pipelines and Construction of Clear Water Pumping System for worth Rs. 51,40,00,000 (Rupees Fifty One Crore Forty Lakh only).
5."Construction of high level pre stressed Concrete Bridge over River Tlawng in the state of Mizoram worth Rs 6,99,51,553.00 (Rupees Six Crores Ninety Nine Lakhs Fifty One Thousand Five Hundred Fifty Three Only)."
6.Construction of high level pre stressed Concrete Bridge over River Tut in the state of Mizoram worth Rs 10,80,00,000.00 (Rupees Ten Crores Eighty Lakhs Only).
7.Construction of Steel Super-structure of the new Rail bridge, as a replacement of the existing Jubilee Bridge across River Hooghly in between Naihati - Bandel section of Eastern Railway worth Rs 140,23,96,254.04 (Rupees One Hundred Forty Crore Twenty Three Lakhs Ninety Six Thousand Two Hundred Fifty Four and Paise Four Only.
8.Acceptance-Cum-Work order for the work of "Design, construction, commissioning, operation and Maintenance of 14 MLD Sewage Treatment Plant on Turn-key basis at Action Area - IIB in New Town Kolkata Project" worth Rs 13,50,00,000.00 (Rupees Thirteen Crores Fifty Lakhs Only).
9.Construction of Bridge over River Damodar in Bowichandi - Khana section of BDR Gauge Conversion Project of SE Railway in the jurisdiction of Dy.CE/Con./Barddhaman for South Eastern Railway, Office of the Chief Administrative Officer (Con), Garden Reach, Kolkata - 700 043 worth Rs 58,15,93,33.
Technicals For TANTIA CONSTRUCTIONS (NSE Cash):
If current uptrend continues, then it can touch 176.20 level on (or) before 15.01.2010.
Negative Factors is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side at 116.90.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 58-60 zone.
Upward Target at 105-107 zone.
RELIANCE 1095 PUT OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 22.00-24.00 zone.
Upward Target at 48.00-50.00 zone.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
WIPRO FUTURES
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If stays at above 687 level, then traders can buy. Above 701 & 704 levels, it can zoom up to711 & 716 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 723 level by non-stop.
Slip below 682 level, expect unwinding up to 675 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 666-668 zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
HCL TECH FUTURES:
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
TATA COMMUNICATIONS FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
BAJAJ AUTO FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
MTNL FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
IDEA CELLULAR FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
INDIABULLS REAL ESTATES FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.
Disclaimer:
"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."
spot levels
5210.40
( -0.74 %)
-39.00
1
2
3
Resistance
5273.62
5336.83
5373.17
Support
5174.07
5137.73
5074.52
17422.51
( -0.59 %)
-104.20
1
2
3
Resistance
17558.82
17695.14
17778.27
Support
17339.37
17256.24
17119.92
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
12-Jan-2010
2903.43
3266.19
-362.76
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
