Intraday calls for 21st Dec 2009
Buy Mphasis-725 @ 710-707 for 725-730 with sl 695
Buy Jothistru-160 @ 152-150 for 175 with sl 147
Buy DivisLab-664 @ 652-648 for 675 with sl 635
Buy Dr.Reddy-1207 for 1287 with sl 1080 [positional]
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5001
5032
5061
5090
5119
SUPPORT
4977
4960
4931
4902
HAVELLS;BANKBARODA;KFA;CON&KINGS;DCHL;TATAMOTOR;RANBAXY;LUPIN;DRREADDY
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Ranbaxy, Lupin, Dr Reddy, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Cipla, ACC, Sail Ltd, Gtl Ltd & Divi'S Lab. And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Andhra Bank, Aban Off shore, Ivrcl Infra, Tata Comm, GVKPIL, Allahabad Bank, Educomp, Lic house, BRFL & Unitech.
Nifty is in Down trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5001 level, expect short covering up to 5030-5032 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5059-5061 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4977 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4960-4962 zone.
Below 4931-4933 zone, expect panic up to 4902-4904 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, cross above 5088-5090 zone can take it up to 5117-5119 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
CNX BANK INDEX (F&O):
Above 8617 level, expect short covering up to 8672-8674 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 8728-8730 zone by non-stop.
Support at 8587 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 8558-8560 zone.
Below 8502-8504 zone, expect panic up to 8447-8449 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, cross above 8783-8785 zone can take it up to 8839-8841 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 8550.00.
Up Side Target at 9996.00.
Problem is that, we are trading near Stop Loss level. If Breaks & Closes below 8550.00 level for consecutive 3 days then it can tumble up to 7827.00 level by non-stop.
Equity:
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
Above 343 level, expect short covering up to 349 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 353-355 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
Support at 336 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 326 & 329 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 319-321 zone by
non-stop.
HAVELLS INDIA (NSE Cash)
Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
Above 574 level, buying may continue up to 590 & 596 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 606-608 zone by non-stop.
Support at 562 level. Below 500 & 505 levels, expect unwinding up to 488-490 zone by non-stop.
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)
Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
Hurdle at 569 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 574-576 zone and sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
Support at 558 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 548-550 zone by non-stop.
COX & KINGS (I)
Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
Above 425 & 431 levels, buying may continue up to 465-467 zone by non-stop.
Down side risk up to 416 level also possible. Below 384 level, it can tumble up to 374-376 zone by non-stop.
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.85? (From Yesterday's closing price).
Then Buy BANK OF BARODA (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 486.05-488.05 zone.
Target at 533.60-535.60 zone.
Will you take a risk of Rs.8.00? (From Yesterday's closing price).
Then Buy DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDING (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 150.00-152.00 zone.
Target at 168.80-170.80 zone.
Will you take a risk of Rs.16.60? (From Yesterday's closing price).
Then Sell JSW STEEL (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 992.30-994.30 zone.
Target at 948.50-950.50 zone.
OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.
Down side risk up to 81 level also possible. Will try to touch 99 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains at above 116 & 122 levels then it can zoom up to 129-131 zone by non-stop.
Below 73 level, expect profit booking up to 58 & 64 levels. Keep a Stop Loss at 50-52 zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
RELIANCE 1020 PUT OPTION
Expected to gain. Will you take a risk of Rs 11.40 from the yesterday's closing price?
Above 33 level, rally may continue up to 38 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 45-47 zone by non-stop.
Support at 45-47 zone, Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 19 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ICICI BANK FUTURES
Selling may continue.
Hurdle at 816 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 822-824 zone. Stop Loss if too far on upper side.
Support at 796 & 800 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 787 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 780-782 zone by non-stop.
TATA MOTORS FUTURES
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
Hurdle at 737 level. Above this level, buying may continue up to 745 & 752 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 758-760 zone by non-stop.
Support at 722 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 714 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 699-701 zone by non-stop.
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GHCL (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 78.90-80.90 zone.
Negative Factors:
1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
KINGFISHER AIRLINES (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 60.55-62.55 zone.
Negative Factors:
1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
FUNDS DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) |
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 18-Dec-2009 | 2227.95 | 2434.8 | -206.85 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) |
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 18-Dec-2009 | 1391.31 | 1060.36 | 330.95 |
Index Outlook: Bears gain the upper hand
Sensex (16,719.8)
Santa Claus failed to make an appearance last week but investors were kept greatly entertained by the game of one-upmanship played by the premier stock exchanges of our country and as a section of the broking fraternity started protesting passionately against the exchange's ad-hoc decision to advance trading hours. In all this drama, the investors, to service whom these exchanges and broking intermediaries exist, seem to have been blissfully forgotten. A survey of investors would definitely show that they have no objection whatsoever to this extension.
The Sensex appeared almost spineless last week and collapsed lower to close 400 points down. With a truncated week ahead and the holiday mood only likely to get stronger from next weekend, it is difficult to see how equities can garner the impetus to move any higher in the next couple of weeks. That said this lethargic mood is also likely to thwart any serious slide in the near term.
That leaves us once more with a tired market that limps sideways in the home stretch as 2009 draws to a close. Weekly rate of change oscillator has dipped slightly in to the negative zone and relative strength index is at 58. Both these indicators signal that the medium term trend has not yet reversed lower and the index is still in neutral zone with a move likely in either direction. Daily indicators have however moved in to negative zone implying that short-term can be rocky.
Close below the 50-day moving average at 16,832 is also a concern from near term perspective. But the Sensex has support in the vicinity at 16,640 and 16,580. If the index rebounds from these levels, it can move towards the 17,350 and 17,500 once more in the near term.
But continuation of the decline below 16,580 will take Sensex to 16,400 or 16,100. The medium term trend for the index is up since the November 3 low of 15,330. This uptrend will reverse only on a close below 16,100. The zone between 16,000 and 16,200 is a critical support since it lies at the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous down-move. This zone needs to hold if the index has to rally higher in 2010.
There is however need for caution from an intermediate and long-term perspective since the first target of the move from the March lows is at 17800 and the index can end the move +/- 5 per cent from this level. We are awaiting a move towards 17,800 or 18,200 but the index could have pulled a fast one on us and have already ended the intermediate term up-trend. Investors should therefore maintain a target return for recent purchases, especially in mid and small cap stocks and exit once these returns are achieved.
The index has strong short term support at 16,640. A rebound from this level can take it higher to 17,000, 17,120 or 17,350 next week. Failure to move above 17,000 will usher in a decline to 16,620 or 16,400. Subsequent support for the index is at 16,210.
Nifty (4,987.7)
It was a let down as far as the Nifty movement was concerned last week. But the up trend from the 4,806 low has not reversed yet. A close below 4,950 is required to signal that the short-term trend has reversed lower. Traders holding long positions can continue to do so as long as the index holds above the zone between 4,930 and 4,950.
Breach of this support would mean that the index could decline further to 4,880 or to the key medium term support between 4,780 and 4,800. Resistances for the week would be at 5,070 and 5,130. Failure to move above the first resistance would be a cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions.
We maintain a positive medium term view for the index as long as it trades above 4,780. Close below this level would imply that a re-test of the November low at 4,530 is possible.
Global Cues
The bias in global equity markets was clearly negative last week and most benchmarks closed with mild losses. CBOE VIX spiked up to 23 on Friday indicating that investors were getting edgy with this directionless market movement. In a week that equities trudged sideways, commodities performed relatively better and Reuters CRB index closed 1 per cent higher last week. The dollar index too closed over 2 per cent higher last week causing a ripple of worry through equity markets.
Dow gave up all the gains made in the previous week by closing 142 points lower. But this index has been moving in an extremely narrow band between 10,200 and 10,500 over the last five weeks and the bias remains positive for the medium term and the possibility of new high also remain open as long as the index trades above 10,200. Targets on an upward break-out remain at 10,759 or 11,080.
Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,010.4)
Reliance Industries dragged rest of the market down last week with the decline of Rs 58. This was in line with our expectation of a fall to Rs 1,008. Strong close below the 50-day moving average at Rs 1,050 is a cause for worry. But the stock has support in the immediate vicinity at Rs 1,011 where a trough was formed on November 27. A reversal is possible from here that can take the stock higher to Rs 1,050 and Rs 1,080 in the near term.
Inability to rise above the first resistance will result in a decline towards Rs 988 or Rs 975. Medium-term trend in RIL is sideways and the stock is moving in a band between Rs 850 and Rs 1,200 in this period. Medium-term investors can accumulate the stock on declines close to the lower end of this range.
SBI (Rs 2,144.9)
SBI too took a decisive step down towards the lower end of its medium term range between Rs 2,050 and Rs 2,500. The short-term trend in the stock reversed lower from the December 10 peak of Rs 2,344. This move can continue to drag the stock down to the support zone between Rs 2,045 and Rs 2,060. Fresh long positions should be avoided on a close below Rs 2,050 since the next target for the stock is between Rs 1,900 and Rs 1,950.
Short term resistances for the stock are at Rs 2,225 and Rs 2,280. Failure to move above the first resistance would be the cue for short-term traders to initiate fresh short positions with a stop at Rs 2,250.
Tata Steel (Rs 563.2)
Tata Steel defied the market weakness last week and closed with 3 per cent weekly gain. Reversal above Rs 530 denotes strength in the short term and a possible move higher to Rs 600 or Rs 636. But the stock is likely to face strong resistance around the previous peak of Rs 600 and short-term traders can take some money off the table around this level. Stop loss for short term can be at Rs 530. Supports below Rs 530 are at Rs 490 and Rs 430. Medium-term investors can continue to hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 430.
Infosys (Rs 2,526.5)
Infosys recorded the first emphatic weekly close above its life-time high of Rs 2,439 recorded in February 2007. The stock can race higher to Rs 2,637 or Rs 2,840 over the medium term.
Traders can therefore continue to hold the stock with a stop at Rs 2,470. Subsequent support for the stock is at Rs 2,440 and Rs 2,400.
Traders can buy on declines as long as the stock holds above Rs 2,400.
The medium-term view is also positive and investors can hold as long as it holds above the previous peak of Rs 2,439.
ONGC (Rs 1,185.5)
ONGC moved in an extremely narrow range between Rs 1,180 and Rs 1,220 last week. The medium-term trend in the stock is up since the October 29 low. But it is facing stiff resistance in the zone between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,220 and fresh longs are recommended only on a move beyond this zone with the target of Rs 1,270.
Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,548.5)
Maruti eased lower gradually to end the week with loss of Rs 38. Immediate supports are at Rs 1,515 and Rs 1,480. Short term traders can hold with a stop at Rs 1,510. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 1,615 and Rs 1,657. Failure to move above the first resistance would imply continued weakness in the near term
RIL – RNRL update
-Arguments in RIL-RNRL D6 gas case conclude at SC (Supreme Court)
Solicitor General Says:
-Government property being used for mergers-demergers
-EGoM (Empowered Group of Minister) decided pricing, allocation can't be challenged
-Govt has been subject to trial by ambush
-Surprised that RIL claimed RNRL allocated gas by EGoM
-RIL no more than an agent for selling gas
Reliance Calls: stocks that are in news today:
-MRF FY09 results today
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-SEBI asks govt to mull action against RIL for allegedly routing funds to dummy cos for buying large quantity of its shares in 2000: PTI
-Telangana impact: KCR warns that illegal lands acquired by Dr Reddy's and IMAX will be confiscated once Telangana is formed
-Lilly wins British drug patent case versus Dr Reddy's
-REC FPO to hit markets in January-February 2010: Power Ministry
-ONGC declares 2 gas finds, Rs 18 per share dividend
-Bright Brothers open offer at Rs 50 (CMP 43)
-Golden Tobacco board meet to consider development of properties
-Indiabulls Financials, Societe General sever ties for life insurance JV – FE
