Thursday, November 19, 2009

Market Outlook 19th Nov

 
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
SUPPORT
5037
5029
5006
4988
RESISTANCE
5065
5069
5076
5094
5100
5117 
 
Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:  
Jindal Saw Steel, Sesa Goa, Renuka , MLL, IDFC, Ashok Ley, McDowell-N, Hind Zinc, Recltd & Neyveli Lignite.  
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
TV-18, ICSA, Punj Lloyd, Sterling Biotech, TTML, Bharti Airtel, Idea, GMR Infra, India Cement & Tata Comm.
Nifty is in Down trend  
 
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 5037 level, selling may continue up to 5029-5031 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5012-5014 zone by non-stop.
 
Hurdles at 5065 & 5069 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5074-5076 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5092-5094 zone by non-stop.
 
Sell if touches 5098-5100 zone. Stop Loss at 5115-5117 zone.
 
On Negative Side, break below 5006-5008 zone can create panic up to 4988-4990 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 5024.00. Target at 5516.45
1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 4620.00. Target at 6289.00.
 
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.
 
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.
 
Today's Expectation:
SGX NIFTY is trading at 5045.00. (08.12 AM IST)
 
This trend is on expected lines.
 
If this downtrend continues, then it may continue for 1 (or) 2 days.
 
If short covering starts, then it can continue up to 1 day, 1 Week (or) even 1 Month.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Sell with a SL of 17083.20. Target at 16666.70.  
 
Short-Term Investors:  
1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 16909.74. Target at 18488.92.
1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 14937.03. Target at 18381.96.
 
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.
 
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
 
BUY:
Buy ROCK HARD PETRO (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 524194)  
Buy with a Stop Loss of 4.47. Above 5.78, it will zoom.
 
 
Today: May hold on gains.
 
1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.
 
1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.
 
3 Months: Sideways, surprisingly going up.
 
1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
Buy MARAL OVERSEAS (BSE Cash & BSE Code:521018)  
Buy with a Stop Loss of 13.90. Above 15.55, it will zoom.
 
Today: May hold on gains.
 
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
 
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 18-Nov-2009 2597.45 2185.32 412.13
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 18-Nov-2009 1091.23 1347.96 -256.73
 
NIFTY INDEX LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   5054.70 ( -0.15 %) -7.55       
  1 2 3
Resistance 5075.45 5096.20   5113.10  
Support 5037.80 5020.90 5000.15

BSE Sensex  16998.78 ( -0.30 %) -51.87     
  1 2 3
Resistance 17078.91 17159.04 17219.29
Support 16938.53 16878.28 16798.15
Interesting findings on web:
   U.S. stocks slipped, pulling the Standard & Poor's 500 Index down from a 13-month high, as technology companies slid after profit forecasts at Autodesk Inc. and Salesforce.com Inc. trailed some analyst estimates.
Stocks closed slightly lower Wednesday, paring deeper losses, after a drop in new home construction made investors jittery about the economic recovery and wary profit outlooks weighed on the technology sector.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI dropped 11.11 points, or 0.11 percent, to 10,426.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX dipped just 0.52 of a point, or 0.05 percent, to finish at 1,109.80. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC lost 10.64 points, or 0.48 percent, to end at 2,193.14.
RUSSELL600.15-2.19-0.36%
TRAN4028.62-20.98-0.52%
UTIL375.66-1.42-0.38%
S&P 100516.540.45+0.09%
S&P 400705.89-3.46-0.49%
NYSE7226.71-7.35-0.1%
NAS 1001801.74-10.47-0.58%
The S&P 500 has ended down only three times in the last two weeks.
Stocks opened lower and struggled for most of the day before moving off session lows in the last 30 minutes of trade.
The modest retreat, which came one day after the major indexes closed at their highest levels in 13-months, was sparked by government data that showed initial construction of new single-family homes fell to a six-month low in October.
The unexpected drop came despite government efforts to stimulate the battered housing industry, and highlighted fears that stocks may have gotten ahead of economic reality.
The government reported that housing starts fell more than 10% to an annual rate of 529,000 in October, the lowest level in six months. An annual rate of 600,000 housing starts was expected, according to a forecast from Briefing.com consensus. The revised rate for September was 592,000.
The government reported that the annual rate of housing permits fell 4% to 552,000 in October, from the revised September rate of 575,000. This was lower than the 580,000 permits expected for October, according to Briefing.com consensus.
"A lot of people were betting on a housing recovery," said Abigail Doolittle, a portfolio manager at Johnson Illington Advisors. "The decline in construction starts is probably making some people nervous."
The government also reported its Consumer Price Index, a key measure of inflation, rose 0.3%.
The CPI was expected to rise 0.2% in October, according to a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com.
The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% in October. That was slightly more than the 0.1% increase expected for October, according to Briefing.com consensus.
But with the major indexes up some 30% from the lows of early March, many investors have become reluctant to push the market higher until they see more concrete signs that an economic recovery is underway.
"At the margin, the economic data has been stabilizing," said Lawrence Creatura, a portfolio manager with Federated Clover Investment Advisors. "It's been 'less bad' and that has been enough for investors up to now. Whether 'less bad' continues to be enough remains to be seen."
Analysts said the volume of shares trading hands recently has been low, suggesting that many big investment funds have moved to the sidelines to avoid jeopardizing gains before publishing year-end results.
"Expectations have risen due to the positive earnings season we've had, and companies that are reporting are finding it hard to live up to the high expectations," said Robert Stimpson, a money manager at Oak Associates Ltd. in Akron, Ohio, which oversees $860 million. "There's still a lot of skepticism for the retail investor wanting to buy equities again."
Tobias Levkovich, the chief U.S. equity strategist at Citigroup Inc., increased his 2009 and 2010 year-end estimates for the S&P 500 to 1,100 and 1,150, respectively, based on improving corporate profits and low interest rates.
"I'm only looking for the equity market to consolidate and flatten out for the next three to six months," said Thomas Nyheim, a money manager at Christiana Bank & Trust Co. in Greeneville, Delaware, which manages $4.7 billion.
Per-share earnings topped estimates at 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have released third-quarter earnings, a record for a full quarter in Bloomberg data going back to 1993, even as profits slumped for a record ninth straight quarter.
Autodesk, the biggest maker of engineering-design software, slid 10 percent after saying job losses in core markets are making the company's recovery "challenging." Salesforce.com, the largest seller of Web-based customer-management software, tumbled 3.1 percent. The market's decline was limited as Bank of America Corp. rallied after John Paulson's hedge fund said the shares may almost double, while takeover speculation lifted Colgate-Palmolive Co. and E*Trade Financial Corp.
Autodesk slid 10 percent, them most in 10 months, to $24.20. The biggest maker of engineering-design software projected fourth-quarter profit excluding some items of 24 cents a share at most, trailing the average analyst estimate of 25 cents.
Salesforce.com lost 3.1 percent to $63.61. The largest seller of Internet-based customer-management software forecast fourth-quarter profit of 14 cents to 15 cents a share. Analysts, on average, expected the company to earn 15 cents, according to Bloomberg survey.
"Technology has been a strong area of the market, and those two results broke the momentum," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research and senior equity index analyst at MF Global in Chicago.
Bank of America, the largest U.S. lender by assets, jumped 3.7 percent to $16.35 for the biggest gain in the Dow average. Paulson & Co., the hedge-fund firm run by billionaire John Paulson, said in a quarterly letter to investors that the shares may rise to $29.81 by December 2011.
Paulson made his comments in an investor note that was reported by Bloomberg News.
"Banks will have passed the current writedown cycle and have visibility for growth in 2012," the letter said. Bank of America dropped to $2.53 in February amid concern that the U.S. might seize lenders that ran short on capital. While Bank of America's stock "has risen from when we purchased the stock, we believe considerable upside remains," the letter said.
Bank of America helped lead financial shares in the S&P 500 to the biggest of three gains among its 10 industry groups. Health-care and telephone shares posted the other advances.
Pall Corp. lost 3 percent to $33.59. The maker of filters for refineries and drugmakers reported first-quarter sales of $546.9 million, missing the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg of $573.8 million.
Western Digital Corp. dropped 1.6 percent to $38.45. The second-largest maker of hard-disk drives was cut to "underperform" from "buy" and had its share price estimate lowered to $35 from $44 at Bank of America, which said the "easy money" in cyclical hard-disk-drive stocks has been made.
Pulte Homes Inc. added 4.6 percent to $10.04. The homebuilder that bought competitor Centex Corp. in August was raised to "buy" from "hold" and its share price estimate increased to $12 from $11 at Citigroup Inc., which said the company was "undeservedly out of favor."
Pulte led a gauge of homebuilders higher even after Commerce Department figures showed housing starts unexpectedly plunged 11 percent in October as the sales outlook dimmed with the looming expiration of a government tax credit. The index of 12 builders in S&P indexes climbed 0.7 percent.
While the decline in new construction raised concerns about the recovery, it could bode well for removing remaining inventory from the market, something analysts say must happen for the housing sector to recover.
Colgate-Palmolive surged 3.7 percent to $85.87. The Daily Telegraph reported that Reckitt Benckiser Group Plc is close to a "multibillion pound cross-border transaction" and "well- placed sources" think the most obvious candidate is Colgate- Palmolive.
E*Trade Financial Corp. rallied 9 percent to $1.69. TD Ameritrade Holding Corp.'s chief executive officer said buying an online brokerage is the best use of the company's cash and that he would consider a deal with E*Trade at the right price, according to Reuters.
Techs finished mostly lower but AMD [AMD  7.32    0.70  (+10.57%)], which announced a private debt offering of $500 million, and Analog Devices [AMD  7.32    0.70  (+10.57%)], which was put on Goldman Sachs' "conviction buy" list, advanced.
Tech giant Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) was among leading decliners on the Dow, while Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) bucked the trend. HP [HPQ  50.44    -0.88  (-1.71%)] was the biggest drag on the Dow, down 1.6 percent.
In other analyst action, Collins Stewart reiterated its "buy" rating on Microsoft [MSFT  30.11    0.11  (+0.37%)].
A bevy of mining and energy shares declined, even as the dollar fell and gold hit a record high above $1,150 an ounce. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc (FCX.N) was off 0.8 percent at $84.69, while ConocoPhillips (CVX.N) slipped 0.2 percent to $53.58.
Dell [DELL  16.07    0.12  (+0.75%)] rose 0.7 percent ahead of the computer maker's quarterly results, due out Thursday.
An interesting twist in the Cadbury [CBY  53.42    -0.58  (-1.07%)] saga: Hershey [HSY  37.65    -0.76  (-1.98%)   ] is reportedly considering a joint bid with Italy's Ferrero, famous for its Nutella spread and Ferrero Rocher choclates, for the British chocolatier. Up until now, Kraft Foods [KFT  27.23    -0.41  (-1.48%)   ] was the only bidder but Cadbury wasn't happy with the offer.
In other M&A news, American Express [AXP  41.56    0.20  (+0.48%)   ] agreed to buy Internet-payment company Revolution Money for $300 million.
And Delta Air Lines [DAL  7.76    -0.14  (-1.77%)   ], along with its alliance partners, is offering $1 billion to Japan Airlines to sway the money losing carrier from its affiliation with American Airlines [AMR  5.76    -0.23  (-3.84%)   ].
Retail earnings have been in focus this week as the holiday shopping season approaches.
BJ's Wholesale [BJ  35.64    -0.70  (-1.93%)   ] shares fell nearly 2 percent after the warehouse-club operator reported its quarterly profit dropped 37 percent and said pricing has been "extremely aggressive" heading into the holiday season.
Limited Brands [LTD  18.26    0.23  (+1.28%)   ] will have its quarterly numbers after the closing bell.
JCPenney [JCP  29.14    -0.72  (-2.41%)   ] announced plans to stop publishing its twice-yearly "big book" catalog as more consumers are doing their shopping online.
Toyota [TM  79.47    -0.84  (-1.05%)   ] posted its first year-over-year global sales increase in October in 15 months, with sales rising 5 percent.
VIX21.63-0.78-3.48%.
Oil,Gold & Currencies:
The price of oil rose 56 cents to end at $79.58 per barrel after hitting a high of $80.33 earlier in the session.
Gold rose $1.80 to settle at another all-time high of $1141.20 an ounce. It also hit a record trading high of $1,149.40 an ounce.
The dollar, which has suffered from recent weakness, was down versus all major currencies. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency's value against a basket of rivals, was down 0.3% to 75.14
Bonds:
Treasury prices fell as investors focused on Wednesday's inflation report. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves opposite its price, rose to 3.36% from 3.32% late Tuesday. 
What to expect:
THURSDAY: EU chooses new president; Fed's Plosser, Fisher speak; Ghosn, Rattner speak; weekly jobless claims; leading indicators; Philly Fed; Geithner speaks; Earnings from Sears, Dell, Gap
FRIDAY: Fed's Plosser speaks; state-by-state jobs report
Asia:
Japanese stocks fell, dragging down the Topix index for a seventh consecutive day, after companies announced plans to sell shares.
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's largest bank by market value, tumbled 5 percent after announcing plans to sell as much as 1 trillion yen ($11.2 billion) in securities. Nomura Real Estate Residential Fund Inc. plunged 7.5 percent after its proposal to sell stock. Nihon Nohyaku Co. plummeted 15 percent as the maker of insecticides said earnings fell.
"There's no reason to buy into Japan," said Mitsushige Akino, who oversees the equivalent of $450 million in assets in Tokyo at Ichiyoshi Investment Management Co. "Domestic investors are looking more at foreign countries since Japan lacks any clear potential for growth."
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 1.4 percent to 9,541.99 as of 10:13 a.m. in Tokyo, set for the lowest since July 17. The broader Topix index lost 1.7 percent to 835.76, on course for its lowest since April 28, as four times as many stocks declined as advanced.
The Topix has fallen 1.1 percent this year, the only decline among the world's 40 largest equity markets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That compares with increases of 23 percent for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the U.S. and 26 percent for the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index in Europe. The global recession has sapped demand for Japanese companies' products and the stronger yen has hurt exporters.
The ratio of investors who want to be "overweight" Japanese stocks during the next year against those who plan to be "underweight" dropped this month to the level of November 2002, according to a report dated yesterday from Bank of America Corp.'s Merrill Lynch & Co. brokerage.
Banks Slump
Banks fell the most today among the 33 industry groups in the Topix, after Mitsubishi UFJ announced its second share sale since January. The lender lost 5 percent to 460 yen. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. slumped 6 percent to 156 yen, on course for the lowest close since September 2003. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. tumbled 5.3 percent to 2,700 yen, set for its lowest in eight months.
Nomura Real Estate Residential plunged 7.5 percent to 356,000 yen, falling the most since Dec. 11. The company said it plans to raise as much as 11.5 billion yen in new shares.
T&D Holdings Inc. retreated 4.6 percent to 2,060 yen, heading for the lowest since Feb. 19. The insurer had its rating reduced to "neutral" from "above average" at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co.
Nihon Nohyaku plummeted 15 percent to 469 yen, set for the sharpest slide since October 2008. The maker of insecticides and fungicides said full-year net income fell 19 percent to 1.66 billion yen, missing its forecast by 21 percent. It expects profit to further drop this fiscal year.
Nikkei 225 9,584.01     -92.79 ( - 0.96%). (07.49 AM IST).
HSI 22760.91 -79.42 -0.35%. (07.51 AM IST)
SSE Composite 3303.23 3305.03 3329.03 3304.40 + 0.05. (07.52 AM IST) 
RUPEE:
The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 46.20/21 per dollar on yesterday, above its previous close of 46.30/31.
INDIA:
India's benchmark stock index fell, snapping a three-day 2.1 percent gain. ICICI Bank Ltd. slid after HSBC Holdings Plc Chairman Stephen Green said new rules may reduce the amount of credit available.
ICICI Bank, the nation's second-largest lender, declined 1.6 percent after Green said there is a danger that requirements to increase capital held by banks may have the effect of reducing credit in the global economy.
"Investors need to be cautious," said U. K. Sinha, chairman at UTI Asset Management Co., India's oldest money manager. "After September results, nothing positive has happened to drive markets higher."
The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, declined 51.87, or 0.3 percent, to 16,998.78. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange slid 0.2 percent to 5,054.70. The BSE 200 Index was little changed at 2,117.61.
ICICI Bank lost 1.6 percent to 905.50 rupees, while State Bank of India, the biggest lender, slid 1 percent to 2,327.80 rupees. Central bank governor Duvvuri Subbarao on Oct. 27 asked lenders to keep more cash in government bonds.
Mercator Lines Ltd., Great Eastern Shipping Co. and Shipping Corp. of India Ltd., gained after the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities, rose to a 14-month high.
Shippers Gain
Mercator, the only Indian shipping company to list shares in Singapore, climbed 7.9 percent to 61.95 rupees. Great Eastern Shipping, India's second-biggest, added 4.7 percent to 283.45 rupees, while Shipping Corp. of India Ltd., the country's No. 1 sea carrier, rose 3.1 percent to 150.15 rupees.
Pratibha Industries Ltd., an engineering and construction company, surged the most in more than two years after it won an order worth 2.94 billion rupees ($64 million). The shares jumped 17 percent to 259.20 rupees, its biggest advance since April 2006.
Redington (India) Ltd. gained 3.5 percent to 315.95 rupees after 2.2 percent of its equity traded in a single block on the Bombay Stock Exchange.
Index eases 0.3 pct after rising nearly 11 pct in 2 weeks
Robust foreign portfolio inflows should help stocks-traders
Outsourcers gain on the back better prospects, hiring plans

Indian shares snapped a three-day winning streak and shed 0.3 percent on Wednesday as investors took profits after the market had climbed nearly 11 percent in two weeks. Energy major Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) led the losses, falling 1.5 percent to 2,102.45 rupees, on disappointment there were no announcements on acquisitions or specific project plans at its annual meeting of shareholders on Tuesday.
The 30-share BSE index .BSESN dropped 51.87 points to 16,998.78, with 18 components closing in the red. "There is resistance coming in as we move towards the level from where we had corrected last month," said Rajen Shah, chief investment officer at Angel Broking.
The index had retreated after hitting nearly 17,500 in October. The benchmark, which fell by more than half last year, is up about 76 percent in 2009 and has more than doubled from a March low. Heavy foreign fund investment of $15.3 billion in 2009 have propelled the market higher and traders are optimistic that a weak dollar will encourage more inflows even as valuations looked expensive.
Indian officials have said on recent occasions they welcomed the inflows, but Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on Wednesday also noted that India was ready to deal with theflows if they became a problem. "It is not a matter of concern as we have the system of monitoring," he told reporters. "And whenever we will find that there are some distortion, then we will have the arrangement to counteract it," he said on the sidelines of an event. "Therefore, it would not be disturbing," Mukherjee added.
Outsourcers, which get most of their revenue from exports,were in demand on the back of a pick up in hiring plans as their business environment improves. Traders said better demand from banking, financial services and insurance companies were helping outsourcers. Infosys (INFY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Wipro (WIPR.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 1.5 percent and 0.5 percent respectively, but sector leader Tata Consultancy (TCS.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) erased early gains and slipped 0.5 percent.
Banks faltered after an early rise as investors locked in profits after a big rally this month. Top lender State Bank of India (SBI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 0.9 percent to 2,330.60 rupees, but is still up more than 6 percent in November. Rival ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 1.5 percent to 905.25 rupees after rallying more than 14 percent this month.
Engineering and construction firm Larsen & Toubro (LART.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) dropped 1.7 percent, but is up 7 percent in two weeks.
In the broader market, gainers led losers in the ratio of 1.4:1 on relatively moderate volume of 404 million shares. The 50-share NSE index .NSEI closed down 0.15 percent at 5,054.70.
STOCKS THAT MOVED
State oil marketing companies Indian Oil Corp (IOC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell between 0.5-2.4 percent as oil rose towards $80 a barrel. These companies are required to sell retail fuel at state-set low prices.
Steel maker JSW Steel (JSTL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose as much as 7.4 percent on a media report it aimed to raise $300 million to $500 million via a stake sale of about 7 to 11 percent to Japan's Nippon Steel (5401.T: Quote, Profile, Research). The stock erased some gains and closed 4 percent higher at 965.65 rupees, after Nippon denied it was in talks to buy the stake.
MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME
Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 12.2 million shares.
Ispat Industries (ISPT.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 11.6 million shares.
Mahindra Satyam (SATY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 8.7 million shares.
After rallying for three straight days, bulls seem to have lost some steam as the BSE Sensex ended below the 17,000 mark, however, the NSE Nifty managed to hold on the 5050 mark. 
Weak cues from the Asian and the European markets coupled with selling pressure in the Oil & Gas and the Banking stocks dragged the Sensex to end below the 17,000 levels.
The BSE Sensex slipped 52 points to end at 16,998 after touching a high of 17,098 and a low of 16,958. The index opened at 17,050 against the previous close of 17,050. The NSE Nifty ended flat at 5,054.
Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the Oil & Gas index was the top loser, shedding 1%, followed by the Banking index that was down 0.91% and the BSE Capita Goods index was down 0.7%.
Major gainers were BSE Metals index up 1.2% and BSE FMCG index up 0.6%.
The BSE Mid-Cap index ended flat while the BSE Small-Cap index was up by 0.7%.
Among the 30-components of Sensex, 18 stocks ended in the red and 12 ended in the positive terrain. Reliance Infra, L&T, Reliance Industries, ICICI Bank and Grasim were among the top losers. On the other hand, among the major gainers were Tata Motors, Tata Steel, ITC, Infosys and JP Associates. 
Outside the frontline indices, the big losers in the broader market were Mphasis,Exide Ind, Spice Tele, Jain Irrigation and Fin Tech. On the other hand, gainers included Pantaloon Retail, GE Shipping, GTL Infra and Sintex Ind.
Shares of SAIL advanced by 0.5% to end at Rs187. Reports stated that Jharkhand government has agreed to renew the company's lease for the Buddhaburu mine, having reserves of 810mn tons.
The company also announced that it was planning to spend Rs600bn for expansion in next 3 years and the company is also reportedly planning to jointly develop a limestone project at Arki in Himachal Pradesh with a 3MTPA capacity.
BHEL announced that it formed a joint venture with Madhya Pradesh Power Generation for 1600MW power plant. Shares of BHEL ended flat at Rs2275. The stock opened at Rs2273 and made an intra-day high of Rs2283 and a low of Rs2255. Total traded volumes stood at 0.11mn shares.
Union Bank of India plans to raise US$500mn by selling bonds by March; the Chairman M.V. Nair was quoted as saying. The bank plans to use the proceeds to fund its overseas operations.
The stock ended at Rs270 adding 1.7%, it opened at Rs266 and made an intra-day high of Rs271 and a low of Rs262. Total traded volumes stood at 0.11mn shares.
Wockhardt announced that it launched anti-hypertensive drug Nicardipine injections in USA. The stock erased early gains and ended lower by 1.5% at Rs180 after it opened at Rs183. It made an intra-day high of Rs187 and a low of Rs179. Total traded volumes stood at 0.14mn shares.
Shares of Redington surged by over 3% to end at Rs316 after 2.2% of its equity, or ~1.7mn shares were traded in a single block on the BSE. The deal was transacted at an average price of Rs310 per share on the BSE.
The stock opened at Rs307 and made an intra-day high of Rs324 and a low of Rs306. Total traded volumes stood at 1.9mn shares.
Lloyd Electric & Engineering announced that through Janka Engineering s.r.o., (a wholly owned subsidiary company) having its registered seat at Prague, Czench Republic has signed a purchase agreement for the acquisition of assets (no liabilities) with Trademarks and 'JANKA' brand of Janka Radotin a.s., a leading czech based manufacturer of diversified Air Handling Product portfolio well positioned in the Czech market for a total consideration of approx. Euro 3.66mn, which is subject to the adjustment on the closing date.
The stock rose over 2% to end at Rs55.5. The stock opened at Rs54.6 and made an intra-day high of Rs56.85 and a low of Rs53.60. Total traded volumes stood at 0.18mn shares.
Among the Sensex pack 18 stocks closed in red while 12 ended in green. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1,598 stocks closed in positive while 1,166 stocks closed in negative while 82 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.
The BSE Sensex closed lower by 51.87 points or (0.30%) at 16,998.78 and NSE Nifty fell by 7.55 points or (0.15%) at 5,054.70. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Cap closed up by 18.57 points and 59.76 points at 6,505.03 and 7,576.39. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 17,098.79 and intraday low of 16,958.41.
Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Tata Motors (3.14%), Tata Steel (1.68%), ITC (1.61%), Infosys (1.54%), JP Associates (1.06%), DLF (0.67%), Tata Power (0.58%) and Maruti Suzuki (0.52%).
Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are Reliance Infra (3.20%), L&T (1.72%), ICICI Bank (1.47%), RIL (1.47%), Grasim Inds (1.17%), Sun Pharma (1.13%) and SBI (0.88%).
On the global markets front, the Asian markets that opened before the Indian market, closed mixed. Seoul Composite, Shanghai Composite and Taiwan Weighted closed up by 1.13%, 0.62% and 0.43% at 1,603.97, 3,303.23 and 7,766.69 respectively while Strait Times, Nikkei and Hang Seng indices closed lower by 0.72%, 0.55% and 0.32% at 2,745.04, 9,676.80 and 22,840.33 respectively.
European markets, which opened after the Indian market, are trading in green. In London FTSE 100 is up by 0.27% at 5,360.52 and in Frankfurt DAX index is trading higher by 0.52% at 5,808.25 and in Paris the CAC 40 is up by 0.52% at 3,848.92.
BSE REALTY indexwas at 4,003.48 up by 26.46 points or by (0.67%) The main gainers were Sobha Dev up by (5.45%) at Rs.242.65, Anant Raj In up by (2.77%) at Rs.142.6, Housing Dev up by (1.71%) at Rs.363.1, Unitech Ltd up by (1.29%) at Rs.86.3, Ackruti up by (0.76%) at Rs.542.85.
BSE METAL index was at 16,165.23 up by 191.87 points or by (1.2%) The main gainers were Ispat Indust up by (4.21%) at Rs.21.05, Jsw Sl up by (4.03%) at Rs.965.65, Jindal Steel up by (2.92%) at Rs.727.2, Sesa Goa Ltd up by (2.42%) at Rs.368.05, Jai Corp Lim up by (2.22%) at Rs.230.15.
BSE BANKEX index was at 10,256.61 down by 80.47 points or by (0.78%) The main losers were Bank Of Baroda-Pari Passu down by (1.9%) at Rs.533.7, Kotak Bank down by (1.77%) at Rs.814.8, Icici Bank L down by (1.47%) at Rs.905.25, State Bank Of India down by (0.88%) at Rs.2330.6, Federal Bank down by (0.88%) at Rs.235.9.
BSE FMCG index was at 2,846.86 up by 20.72 points or by (0.73%) The main gainers were I T C Ltd up by (1.61%) at Rs.258.7, Unitd Spr up by (0.96%) at Rs.1164.9, Britania In up by (0.82%) at Rs.1675, Godrej Cons up by (0.69%) at Rs.278.7, Nestle Ltd up by (0.28%) at Rs.2647.15.
BSE CD index was at 3,555.65 up by 21.69 points or by (0.61%) The main gainers were Blue Star L up by (0.93%) at Rs.347.7, Rajesh Expot up by (0.78%) at Rs.83.7, Videocon Ind up by (0.7%) at Rs.222.55, Titan Ind. up by (0.55%) at Rs.1386.45.
BSE OIL&GAS index was at 10,120.56 down by 86.07 points or by (0.84%) The main losers were Hindustan Petroleum Corp. Ltd. down by (2.35%) at Rs.338.35, Indian Oil C down by (1.56%) at Rs.293.9, Reliance down by (1.47%) at Rs.2102.45, Bharat Petroleum Corporation L down by (0.45%) at Rs.516, Gail India down by (0.22%) at Rs.385.8.
BSE IT index was at 4,860.29 up by 33.89 points or by (0.7%) The main gainers were Infosys Technologies Ltd.-Ordi up by (1.54%) at Rs.2433.6, Oracle Fin up by (0.99%) at Rs.2259.55, Rolta Ind up by (0.88%) at Rs.178.55, Hcl Techno up by (0.56%) at Rs.338.9, Wipro Ltd. up by (0.4%) at Rs.644.9.
Pratibha Industries Ltd surged 18.27% to close at Rs. 262.15. The company has secured the contract of Meerut Water Supply Project from U. P Jal Nigam, Meerut. The total value of the contract is Rs. 294.30 crores.
Glenmark Pharmaceuticals Ltd advanced 1.49% to close at Rs. 246 after Glenmark Generics Inc, a US subsidiary of the company, settled all pending litigations with the Medicis Pharmaceutical.
Reliance Industries slipped by 1.47% to close at Rs. 2,102.45 despite the company announced the record date for dividend as 27 November 2009 for the 1:1 bonus share issue.
Adhunik Metaliks Ltd. (ADML IN): The Indian manufacturer of steel products plans to sell shares to large investors, the company said in a filing to the National Stock Exchange. The company will sell shares for at least 98.23 rupees apiece, the filing said. The shares rose 0.5 percent to 101.7 rupees.
Housing Development Finance Corp. (HDFC IN): India's biggest mortgage lender said it expects interest rates to "harden" by the middle of next year. Rates may increase by as much as 50 basis points, Joint Managing Director Renu Karnad said in Mumbai. The stock fel 0.5 percent to 2,735.1 rupees.
JSW Steel Ltd. (JSTL IN): India's third-biggest steel producer is close to entering into a strategic alliance with a global steel company that may see the foreign company buy a minority stake and provide technology to help the Indian firm make speciality steel products, the Economic Times reported, citing two people close to the matter. The stock rose 4.1 percent to 965.4 rupees.
Oil & Natural Gas Corp. (ONGC IN): India's largest state- owned oil explorer said billionaire Lakshmi Mittal's exit from a venture in Kazakhstan won't affect the exploration project. ONGC shares rose 0.6 percent to 1,179.85 rupees.
Pantaloon Retail India Ltd. (PF IN): India's biggest retailer is seeking to buy a fast-moving consumer goods company to get a manufacturing base and expand its line of food and personal care private-label products, DNA reported. The stock rose 5.4 percent to 341.4 rupees.
Patni Computer Systems Ltd. (PATNI IN): The software service provider was downgraded to "neutral" from "overweight" at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The stock rose less than 0.1 percent to 476 rupees.
State Trading Corp. (STC IN): India's second-biggest government-owned trading company extended the deadline for a tender to import 10,000 metric tons of rice to Nov. 23 from Nov. 17, a government official, who didn't want to be identified because the information is confidential, said yesterday. State Trading shares fell 0.2 percent to 354.85 rupees.
Reliance May Enter Low-Cost Housing Business, Standard Reports
Reliance Industries Ltd. may enter India's low-cost housing business by 2010, the Business Standard newspaper reported, citing a company official it didn't identify.
The company may use land it owns in special trade zones in Mumbai and near the capital New Delhi to build the housing projects, the newspaper said.
Reliance Industries is India's most valuable company.
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Abbott Laboratories -Turning Into A Mega Pharma Entity
  
  
Abbott Labs has announced it is buying a potential chronic pain drug from PanGenetics BV for as much as $190 million.  

Abbott said the drug is in early-stage clinical testing as a treatment for pain cause by arthritis. If that trial is successful, Abbott may test it against chronic lower back pain, cancer pain, and diabetic nerve pain. It said the drug blocks a chemical called nerve growth factor, or NGF, which is released at sites where tissues are damaged or inflamed.
 
PanGenetics, based in the Netherlands, will receive $170 million upfront from Abbott, and $20 million in milestone payments if the drug advances through development. Abbott said the deal will close before the end of 2009, and while it will take one-time charges related to the deal, the company said it does not need to change its profit guidance for the year.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
  
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
 
 

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Market Outlook 18th Nov 2009

 
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5084
5111
5137
SUPPORT
5053
5047
5019
4994
 
 stocks that are in news today:
-Pfizer, Wockhardt brass may meet by month-end on acquisition: Mint ((Pfizer interested in buying part of Wockhardt's biz))
-L&T sells petroleum dispensing business to US-based Gilbarco for Rs 200 crore
-FIPB refers Jet's fund raising proposal to CCEA ((Company looking to raise $400 million via QIP))
-Jet-Sahara case to come up for directions in Bombay HC today
-Tata Motors raises Rs 264 crore in new FD scheme – BS
-BSNL, Vavasi talks to buy Zain fall through, Vavasi to announce new partner in 1-2 weeks – BS
-Valecha Engineering bags orders worth Rs 110 crore
  • The government approved 17 foreign direct investment proposals worth Rs. 11.58 bn. Among the major proposals which were approved today are the FDI applications of the world s largest steel maker ArcelorMittal and ductile iron pipe maker Electrosteel Castings, a government statement said. (BS)
  • The UK inflation rate rose more than economists forecast in October, climbing for the first time in eight months as fuel costs and air fares climbed. Consumer prices gained 1.5% from a year
  • RIL bonus share issue record date November 27
  •  
     Strong & Weak  futures
    This is list of 10 strong futures:  
    Sesa Goa, Renuka , Jindal Saw Steel, Mphasis, Recltd, Ashok Ley, Crompton Greaves, Hind Zinc, Zeel & FSL.  
    And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
    Tata Comm, Idea, GTL Infra, India Cement, EKC, Bharti Airtel, GMR Infra, TTML, Sterling Biotech & Punj Lloyd.
    Nifty is in Down trend  
     
    NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
    Rally may continue up to 5084 level for time being.
    Support at 5053 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 5047 level by
    non-stop.

    Buy if touches 5019-5021 zone. Stop Loss at 4994-4996 zone.

    On Positive Side, cross above 5109-5111 zone can take it up to 5135-5137 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
     
    Short-Term Investors:
    1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 5024.00. Target at 5516.45
    1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 4620.00. Target at 6289.00.
    3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.
    1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.
     
    Today's Expectation:
    SGX NIFTY is trading at 5085.00. (08.32 AM IST)
    This trend is on expected lines.
    If rally continues then it can continue up to 1 (or) 2 days, 1 Week, (or) even 1 Month.
    If profit booking starts then it can last for 1 day. If start trades & remain below 5063.40 (NF) then 1 day profit booking is possible.
     
    BSE SENSEX: 
     Buy with a SL of 16666.70. Target at 17083.20. 
    Short-Term Investors:
    1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 16909.74. Target at 18488.92.
    1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 14937.03. Target at 18381.96.
    3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.
    1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
     
    POSITIONAL BUY:
    Buy VANTAGE CORPORATE SERVICES LTD (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 530109) Chart for the above said scrip was not available in our software. Inconvenience is regretted. 
    Buy MARAL OVERSEAS (BSE Cash & BSE Code:521018) 
    Buy with a Stop Loss of 12.25. Above 13.90, it will zoom.
     
    Today: May hold on gains.

    1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
     
     
    FUNDS DATA
    FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
    Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
    FII 17-Nov-2009 2376.47 1913.05 463.42
    DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
    Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
    DII 17-Nov-2009 931.18 1166.72 -235.54
     
    SPOT INDEX LEVELS
    NSE Nifty Index   5062.25 ( 0.08 %) 4.20       
      1 2 3
    Resistance 5087.45 5112.65   5151.30  
    Support 5023.60 4984.95 4959.75

    BSE Sensex  17050.65 ( 0.11 %) 18.14     
      1 2 3
    Resistance 17126.22 17201.79 17323.41
    Support 16929.03 16807.41 16731.84
     Interesting findings on web:
    U.S. stocks gained for a third day as a rebound in metal prices boosted commodity producers, overshadowing a smaller-than-forecast increase in industrial production. The Dollar Index rose for the first time in three days and Treasury 30-year bonds climbed for a fourth.
    Stocks recovered from early losses Tuesday, closing at 13-month highs for the second day in a row, as strength in commodity-linked shares offset weakness in the retail sector.
    U.S. stocks rose to fresh 13-month highs on Tuesday as upbeat broker views on improving prospects for two Dow components offset disappointing holiday spending outlooks from Target and Home Depot.
    Even so, the underlying tone was negative as investors fretted about the strength of the recovery and the recent rally, and more stocks fell than rose.
    Weak outlooks for the key holiday season weighed on investor psychology since consumer spending accounts for about two-thirds of U.S. economic activity and is a key factor in corporate profits.
    "The news from retailers wasn't particularly good," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at NorthStar Investment Management Corp in Chicago. "It seems to me the major flavor for today is once again, the market participants questioning the strength of the recovery."
    The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 30.46 points, or 0.29 percent, to close at 10,437.42. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX edged up 1.02 points, or 0.09 percent, to 1,110.32. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC added 5.93 points, or 0.27 percent, to 2,203.78.
    RUSSELL602.34-0.53-0.09%
    TRAN4049.63.10+0.08%
    UTIL377.08-1.24-0.33%
    S&P 100516.091.08+0.21%
    S&P 400709.35-1.22-0.17%
    NYSE7234.06-3.04-0.04%
    NAS 1001812.214.65+0.26%
    All three indexes are at their highest levels since October 2008.
    Stocks opened lower and struggled for most of the day as the dollar regained ground against rival currencies, reflecting a decreased appetite for risky assets.
    The tone improved in the last few hours of trading as oil and gold prices reversed direction. Oil closed above $79 a barrel, while gold edged up to settle at a fresh all-time high.
    The rebound in commodity prices boosted shares of energy and materials companies. But gains were limited by weakness in the retail sector after Home Depot and Target offered cautious earnings outlooks.
    Tuesday's economic news was mixed. Government data showed inflation at the wholesale level remains subdued, while industrial production was weaker than expected in October.
    The government reported that the Producer Price Index, the key measure of inflation for manufacturers, edged up 0.3% in October. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell 0.6%.
    The PPI was expected to have risen 0.5% for the month, according to a consensus of economist opinion from Briefing.com. The core was expected to have edged up 0.1% in October.
    Before the start of market trading, the government also reported that industrial production rose 0.1% last month versus a forecasted 0.4% increase. In September, production rose 0.7%. Capacity utilization rose by 0.2 percentage point to 70.7%, a rate slightly below economists' expectations for 70.8%.
    "This industrial production number is pointing to weak manufacturing in the United States as well as weak demand," said Chad Morganlander, a money manager in Florham Park, New Jersey, at Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which oversees about $98 billion in client assets. "This could put a wet blanket on the optimists for a day or two."
    Ryan Larson, senior equity trader at Voyager Asset Management, said the stock market continues to look to the dollar for direction.
    "The main story has been the dollar trade," he said. "When the dollar is weak, investors take on more risk. If it's strong, they take the risk off."
    "The economy is growing, but shows a loss of momentum given the recent round of economic and corporate data," said Nick Kalivas, vice president of financial research at MF Global.
    Today's advance brought the S&P 500 within 1 percent of recouping half the plunge that followed its October 2007 record. Passing the so-called 50 percent retracement level would send a signal to some technical analysts that the steepest rally since the 1930s will continue. The index has jumped 64 percent from a 12-year low in March as a four-quarter contraction in the world's largest economy ended.
    The S&P 500 still needs to rise 13 percent to surpass its level on Sept. 12, 2008, the last trading session before Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed the world's largest bankruptcy and deepened the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
    "We feel like this market still has some room to move higher," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial in Boston, which oversees $259 billion. "We're still at levels that are lower than we were before Lehman Brothers. We are vastly better off than we were then."
    "Earnings season has come in the best that it has in a very long time," said David Katz, who oversees $1.2 billion at Matrix Asset Advisors in New York. "You are getting a very significant pickup in earnings with cost-cutting and management. The economy that was in freefall a year ago is definitely on the mend."
    About 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results beat analysts' predictions. That exceeds the record pace of 72.3 percent for the period ended in June, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
    The Federal Reserve said it will reduce the maximum maturity on discount-window loans to 28 days from 90 days as it moves to unwind some of the emergency measures introduced to fight the credit crisis. The discount window, used for direct loans to banks, was one of the first tools that Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke deployed to thaw credit markets as the crisis began to unfold in August 2007.
    "This is one of the many measures that the Fed put in place last year and this is one of the pipes where they were able to pump liquidity to the banks," said Michael Cheah, who manages $2 billion in bonds at SunAmerica Asset Management in Jersey City, New Jersey. "The Federal Reserve is dismantling a lot of the emergency measures they put in place. The bottom line is they're taking liquidity away from this market."
    Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Exxon Mobil Corp. gained at least 0.8 percent after Warren Buffett disclosed buying their shares. Sprint Nextel Corp. rallied for a second day after saying it paid down $1 billion in debt. Caterpillar Inc. and ITT Corp. declined as the Federal Reserve said industrial output was restrained in October by less auto manufacturing and demand for business equipment.
    Walmart, the world's largest retailer, added 0.9 percent to $53.66. Exxon Mobil, the biggest oil company, increased 0.8 percent to $75.03.
    Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. held about 1.28 million Exxon shares at the end of the third quarter, the Omaha, Nebraska-based company said in a regulatory filing yesterday. The stake in Exxon was worth about $95 million, based on yesterday's stock price. Berkshire raised its stake in Walmart by 90 percent, now owning $2 billion worth of the stock, according to the same filing.
    Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. added 1 percent to $85.36 as copper rose on speculation demand will remain robust in China. Producers of raw materials climbed 0.9 percent as a group for the steepest gain among 10 industries in the S&P 500. Gold prices rose on bets that central banks and investors will increase demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.
    Sprint Nextel rose 5.7 percent to $3.70. The third-largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier added to a 13 percent gain yesterday, when it said it paid off $1 billion of debt, cleaning up its balance sheet as revenue declines.
    Assured Guaranty Ltd. soared 20 percent to $25.53. The municipal-bond insurer backed by Wilbur Ross reported third- quarter operating earnings of 44 cents a share, 16 percent better than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
    MBIA Inc., the world's largest bond insurer, also gained, rising 6.1 percent to $3.47 for the second-biggest advance in the S&P 500.
    Massey Energy Co. advanced 5.7 percent to $40.39. The fifth-largest U.S. coal producer said it acquired metallurgical and steam coal reserves from the now-bankrupt Appalachian Fuels LLC and its affiliates.
    Caterpillar, the largest maker of earthmoving equipment, dropped 0.9 percent to $59.88 after the Fed said industrial production increased 0.1 percent in October. Economists forecast a 0.4 percent rise, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. ITT, which makes water pumps and military systems, lost 1.3 percent to $53.06.
    Target Corp. dropped 3 percent to $48.77, the biggest slide since July. The second-largest U.S. discount chain said average transaction sizes shrank in November and it's planning for a decrease in fourth-quarter comparable-store sales.
    "The consumer is a bit restrained. We're still in a very tough economy, with a 26-year high in unemployment and consumer credit being reduced. So retailers have to work really hard to get through this holiday season in a profitable fashion," added Kuby at NorthStar.
    Home Depot Inc. fell 2.4 percent to $26.99. The biggest U.S. home-improvement retailer posted third-quarter profit that fell 8.9 percent as customers spent less and made fewer purchases. The average transaction dropped 7.1 percent to $51.89 from $55.86.
    Lowe's Cos., the Home Depot competitor that cut its full- year profit forecast yesterday, lost 1.2 percent to $21.48.
    Companies that make or sell consumer products that are purchased with discretionary income dropped the most of 10 industry groups in the S&P 500, losing 0.7 percent.
    Jacobs Engineering Group Inc. lost 15 percent to $38.88 for the biggest drop in the S&P 500. The construction and engineering company forecast fiscal 2010 profit that lagged analysts' estimates.
    Smith International Inc. fell 13 percent to $26.86 for the second-biggest decline in the S&P 500. The oilfield contractor said it will sell 28 million shares to repay debt and fund potential acquisitions. The creation of additional stock may dilute earnings for existing shareholders.
    SunPower Corp. slid 19 percent to $22.19. The manufacturer of solar power modules reported that a review of some accounting entries appeared to contain errors that understated production costs. Its ratings were cut by Piper Jaffray Cos., FBR Capital Markets Corp., Caris & Co. and Merriman Curhan Ford.
    TJX (TJX, Fortune 500), which owns the T.J. Maxx and Marshalls chains, reported a larger-than-expected quarterly profit on increased consumer demand for discount products. The company said it expects profit from continuing operations of 65 cents to 71 cents per share in the fourth quarter. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters are forecasting a profit of 71 cents per share in the fourth-quarter.
    On the higher end, Saks (SKS) reported a quarterly profit, surprising analysts who were expecting the company to report a loss. However, the results were driven mostly by cost-cutting, and the company offered a cautious outlook.
    In Nasdaq trading, shares of software maker Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) gained 2 percent to $30 -- an 18-month closing high -- after Morgan Stanley raised its price target on the stock and said it was upbeat on the prospects for Windows 7 and the company's holiday season.
    UBS analyst Brent Thill on Monday slapped a "buy" rating and $34 price target on Microsoft stock, which is currently just shy of $30.
    Shares of Exxon Mobil rose 0.8 percent to $75.03 after Barclays raised its recommendation on the stock to "overweight" from "equal-weight." Both Microsoft and Exxon are components of the 30-stock Dow Jones industrial average.
    Thill also has a "buy" on Adobe [ADBE  36.89    0.08  (+0.22%)   ] and Oracle [ORCL  22.80    -0.03  (-0.13%)   ], with price targets of $43 and $27, respectively.
    And Pacific Sunwear [PSUN  3.88    -1.13  (-22.55%)   ] droped 23 percent as the teen chain reported its loss for the latest quarter widened and warned its loss for the holiday quarter would be much more than Wall Street expects.
    Telecoms were one of the best performers, with gains across the smartphone sector: Palm [PALM  12.53    0.68  (+5.74%)   ] jumped 5.8 percent, while Leap Wireless [LEAP  12.67    0.42  (+3.43%)   ] advanced 3.4 percent Motorola [MOT  8.84    0.14  (+1.61%)   ] and Garmin [GRMN  32.33    0.53  (+1.67%)   ] gained nearly 2 percent.
    Citigroup [C  4.24    0.06  (+1.44%)   ] rose 1.4 percent after the lumbering financial giant gave its CFO and global markets co-head a pay increase. CEO Vikram Pandit's salary was unchanged.
    Wall Street firms bailed out by the government, like Citigroup, have been struggling with how to retain top talent — and get them to perform.
    Ford [F  8.97    0.26  (+2.99%)   ] rose 3.1 percent and touched a two-year high as the Ford Focus was named Motor Trend's 2010 car of the year.
    If you're following the billionaires next door, Warren Buffet's Berkshire Hathaway and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation have both increased their stakes in a number of companies, according to their latest quarterly filings. 
    Berkshire has increased its stake in Wal-Mart, [WMT  53.65    0.49  (+0.92%)   ] while lowering its holdings in ConocoPhillips [COP  53.61    -0.23  (-0.43%)   ] and NRG Energy [NRG  24.39    0.10  (+0.41%)   ].
    It's also reported news takes in Nestle, [NSRGY  47.55    0.04  (+0.08%)   ] Republic Services, [RSG  28.24    0.27  (+0.97%)   ] and Travelers [TRV  53.12    0.18  (+0.34%)   ]. 
    The Gates Foundation has boosted its holdings in Coca-Cola, [KO  56.86    0.12  (+0.21%)   ] McDonald's, [MCD  63.55    -0.98  (-1.52%)   ] and Waste Management [WM  33.08    0.29  (+0.88%)   ].
    Investors will digest reports on consumer prices and initial construction of new homes Wednesday morning. Later in the week, the government will report on the number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits.
    VIX22.41-0.48-2.1%
    Oil,Gold & Currencies:
    Oil prices rose 24 cents to settle at $79.14 barrel in New York.
    The price of gold closed at an all-time high of $1,139.40 an ounce, up 20 cents from Monday's record close of $1,139.80.
    The weak dollar recovered a little Tuesday. The dollar index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of rivals, was up 0.7% to 75.38 from 74.92.
    Bonds:
    Treasury prices rose, with the yield on the 10-year note falling to 3.33%.
    What to expect:
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; CPI; housing starts; weekly crude inventories; Earnings from BJ's, Limited
    THURSDAY: EU chooses new president; Fed's Plosser, Fisher speak; Ghosn, Rattner speak; weekly jobless claims; leading indicators; Philly Fed; Geithner speaks; Earnings from Sears, Dell, Gap
    FRIDAY: Fed's Plosser speaks; state-by-state jobs report
    Asia:
    Nikkei 225 9,716.35     -13.58 ( - 0.14%). (08.08 AM IST).
    HSI 23062.61 +148.46 +0.65%. (08.09 AM IST).
    SSE Composite 3282.89 3310.81 3310.81 3274.21 + 0.85. (08.10 AM IST).
    Asian mining stocks rose on gains in commodity prices, overshadowing concern that share sales will reduce the value of equity investments in Japan.
    BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's No. 1 mining company, added 1.2 percent in Sydney after oil and metal prices advanced. STX Pan Ocean Co., South Korea's biggest bulk carrier, increased 2.4 percent in Singapore after shipping rates climbed for a 14th day. Property developer Tokyo Tatemono Co. sank 19 percent on plans to sell 45.6 billion yen ($511 million) in shares.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 118.86 as of 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has climbed 68 percent from a more than five-year low on signs of a global economic revival.
    "The economic data is saying we're past the worst," said Stephen Halmarick, Sydney-based head of investment-markets research at Colonial First State, which holds about $135 billion. "Continued recovery in the global economy and more balanced global growth should increase demand for commodities. But the recovery process is still going to be painful and grinding."
    Japan's Topix Index sank 0.9 percent, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average fell 0.1 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.6 percent and South Korea's Kospi Index climbed 0.8 percent.
    Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.1 percent. The gauge rose 0.1 percent yesterday, buoyed by commodity companies as gold and copper climbed, and crude oil rose for a second day to $79.14 a barrel. In London, the Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping rates for commodities, advanced for a 14th day to the highest since September 2008.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has climbed 32 percent this year, on course for its steepest annual increase since 2003. It has outpaced gains of 23 percent by the S&P 500 and 26 percent for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. Stocks in the Asian index are valued at 22 times estimated earnings, compared with 18 times for the S&P and 16 times for the Stoxx 600.
    Rupee:
    The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 46.30/31 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Monday's close of 46.20/21.
    INDIA:
    India's benchmark stock index rose for a third day. Software exporters gained as retail sales rebounded in the U.S., their largest export market.
    Infosys Technologies Ltd., the second-largest software services provider, rose 2 percent while its larger rival Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. gained 3.7 percent. Oil & Natural Gas Corp., the largest state-owned oil explorer, fell 2.5 percent as oil declined.
    "There is a sharp increase in deal pipeline," Sandeep Muthangi, an analyst at IIFL Ltd. said in a note to clients. "Initial indications point to healthy information technology budgets for the fiscal year ending March 2011."
    The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, rose 18.14, or 0.1 percent, to 17,050.65. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 0.1 percent to 5,062.25. The BSE 200 Index advanced 0.1 percent to 2,117.89.
    U.S. retail sales grew 1.4 percent in October after slumping the most in nine months in September, a government report yesterday showed.
    Infosys gained 2 percent to 2,398.30 rupees. Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., the largest software services exporter, rose 3.7 percent to 690.45 rupees. Wipro Ltd., the third-biggest software services provider, rose 0.8 percent to 642.50 rupees. India's software exporters derive at least 40 percent of their earnings from the U.S.
    Amtek Gains
    Oil & Natural Gas fell 2.2 percent to 1,173.10 rupees. Crude oil for December delivery fell as much 0.6 percent to $78.40 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
    Amtek Auto Ltd., an Indian maker of automotive parts, rose 3.3 percent to 200.10 rupees. The company said yesterday after the market closed that it had bought back and canceled $9.5 million of bonds.
    Overseas funds purchased a net 6.72 billion rupees ($145 million) of Indian stocks on Nov. 13, taking their total investments in equities this year to $15 billion, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said on its Web site. The funds have bought 720 billion rupees of stocks since Jan. 1 after recording net sales of 530 billion rupees for the whole of 2008.
    BSE index gains 0.1 pct; extends rise to 3rd day
    Spent most of the day down on subdued world markets
    Reliance drops as no major announcement at AGM
    Banks supported by improving economic activity
    Outsourcer Infosys Technologies (INFY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and private sector lender HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) helped Indian shares stretch a winning run into a third day on Tuesday, after the market spent most of the day in negative territory. Investors took profits in many stocks following a more than 7 percent rally this month in tandem with world markets that retreated from the previous day's 2009 highs. U.S. stock futures indicated a lower opening on Wall Street.
    Infosys, the country's second-largest software services firm, climbed 2 percent to 2,396.75 rupees on improving prospects. ICICI Securities said the current utilisation rate at 67 percent and composition of employees with less than three years experience at an historic low of around 53 percent, earnings visibility for Infosys was likely to remain superior versus peers. The brokerage maintained a buy rating on the stock and raised its target price to 2,515 rupees.
    Sector leader Tata Consultancy (TCS.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 3.7 percent to 690.45 rupees while rival Wipro closed nearly 1 percent higher at 642.30 rupees.
    Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 0.7 percent to 2,133.75 rupees, as the energy major did not make any major announcement at its annual general meeting. "Most people were expecting a big announcement in terms of an acquisition or a discovery. That didn't happen and the excitement came off," said Jigar Shah, senior vice-president of Kim Eng Securities. Reliance said it plans an aggressive exploration campaign, investments in petrochemicals and overseas acquisitions, but did not elaborate on any particular plan.
    The main 30-share BSE index .BSESN closed up 0.1 percent, or 18.14 points, at 17,050.65 points, with half of its components rising. It had fallen as much as 0.9 percent during trade. "Our market is just reacting to what is happening globally," said Shah. Foreign funds have been a key driver for the market, pouring in $15 billion so far this year and helping the benchmark jump  more than three-quarters in 2009. The BSE index has risen 7.3 percent this month, erasing its losses in October.
    HDFC Bank (HDBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 1.5 percent to 1,747.35 rupees as investors bet recovering economic activity would boost earnings. "Besides being a geared play on the economic cycle, banks trade at a 22 percent valuation discount to the broader market, which makes them an attractive buy," HSBC Bank said in a report and added HDFC Bank was its top pick from the sector. Top lender State Bank of India (SBI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) closed 0.3 percent higher while rival ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) ended little changed. Energy explorer Oil & Natural Gas Corp (ONGC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 2.3 percent to 1,172.20 rupees as investors booked profits after it rose 4.5 percent in the past two sessions. In the broader market, gainers almost matched the number of losers on relatively low volume of 340 million shares.
    The 50-share NSE index .NSEI closed up 0.1 percent at 5,062.25.
    STOCKS THAT MOVED
    Engineering and construction firm Larsen & Toubro (LART.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 0.3 percent to 1,656.20, after sources said its power unit had emerged the lowest bidder for a project in north India.
    Steel Authority of India Ltd (SAIL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 1.8 percent to 187 rupees after its chairman said the state firm was looking at acquiring licenses for coking coal mines abroad to protect itself from fluctuating raw material prices.
    MAIN TOP 3 BY VOLUME
    * Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 14.6 million shares
    * Mahindra Satyam (SATY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 11.3 million shares
    * Unitech (UNTE.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) on 7.3 million shares 

    It was an absolute Tuesday twister for the Indian markets. After starting off with a negative bias and staying in the red till the last trading hour, a sudden bout of buying in the IT, Banking, Capital Goods and the Metals stocks aided the benchmark indices to end with mild gains.
    NSE Nifty recovered nearly 50 points to close above 5,050 and the BSE Sensex recouped 170 points to shut above the 17,000 mark.
    IT stocks were in limelight throughout the day, stocks like Infosys, TCS and Wipro were among the star performers, even the mid-cap IT stocks like Polaris, Mphasis and MindTree were in demand.
    The index heavyweight Reliance Industries which held its Annual General Meeting today put on a disappointing show, the stock ended in the red, down by 0.7% at Rs2133. 
    Finally, the BSE Sensex rose 18 points to end at 17,050 after touching a high of 17,080 and a low of 16,882. The index opened at 16,052 against the previous close of 17,032. The NSE Nifty ended flat at 5,062.
    Coming back to India, among the BSE sectoral indices, the IT index was the top gainer, adding 2%, followed by the Teck index that was up 1% and the BSE Consumer Durables index was up 0.6%.
    Major losers were BSE Realty index down 1.2% and BSE Oil & Gas index down 0.8%.
    The BSE Mid-Cap index ended flat while the BSE Small-Cap index was marginally up by 0.2%.
    Among the 30-components of Sensex, 15 stocks ended in the green and 15 ended in the negative terrain. TCS, Hero Honda, Infosys and Reliance Infra were among the top gainers.
    On the other hand, among the major losers were ONGC, ACC, DLF, Bharti Airtel and RCom. 
    Outside the frontline indices, the big gainers in the broader market were Spice Tele, Glenmark Pharma, GMDC, Sintex Industries and Aban Offshore. On the other hand, losers included Hindustan Copper, United Phos, Mundra Port and RCF.
    Shares of the Aviation firms' crash landed after media reports flashed that the ministry said that it sees no reason to raise the existing FDI limit. 
    Shares of Kingfisher Airlines fell over 5% to Rs52.9, Jet Airways slipped by 2.3% to Rs445 and SpiceJet fell 3.5% to Rs46.2.
    Shares of HDFC ended flat at Rs2754. The company along with Standard Life, UK plans to infuse Rs3bn in its life insurance venture HDFC Standard Life in H2FY10.
    In the previous week, HDFC also diversified into education loans. It acquired a 41% stake in Credila Financial Services, a company that specialises in education loans, for Rs100mn. HDFC has acquired the stake from Merrill Lynch, which was an initial investor in the company.
    Shares of Bharat Forge advanced by 2% to Rs274 after reports stated that the company is planning to foray into the power sector with an investment of up to Rs500bn with a targeted generation capacity of up to 10,000MW, over the next 10 years.
    Reports stated that the company plans to set up power plants in Gujarat, Maharashtra, coastal Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
    Shares of Glenmark gained by 5.5% to Rs242 after reports stated that the company has settled patent litigation with Medicis Pharmaceutical Corporation and has entered into a co-development arrangement on its specialty drug to treat acne.
    The stock opened at Rs229 and made an intra-day high of Rs244 and a low of Rs229. Total traded volumes stood at 0.7mn shares.
    Among the Sensex pack 15 stocks closed in green while 15 ended in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained weak as 1,389 stocks closed in negative while 1,329 stocks closed in positive while 90 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.
    The BSE Sensex closed with marginal gains of 18.14 points or (0.11%) at 17,050.65 and NSE Nifty closed up by 4.20 points or (0.08%) at 5,062.25. The BSE Mid Caps closed lower by 5.34 points at 6,486.46 while BSE Small Caps closed up by 16.80 points at 7,516.63. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 17,080.17 and intraday low of 16,882.98.
    Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are TCS (3.67%), Hero Honda (2.41%), Infosys (1.96%), Reliance Infra (1.89%), HDFC bank (1.47%), Wipro (0.96%), HUL (0.69%) and Hindalco (0.60%).
    Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are ONGC (2.29%), ACC (2%), DLF (1.95%), Bharti Airtel (1.75%), Reliance Communication (1.73%), Sun Pharma (1.40%) and M&M (1.38%).
    On the global markets front, the Asian markets that opened before the Indian market, closed mixed. Shanghai Composite, Jakarta Composite closed up by 0.24% and 0.21% at 3,282.89 and 2,473.79 respectively while Taiwan Weighted, Strait Times, Nikkei and Hang Seng indices closed lower by 0.76%, 0.68%, 0.63% and 0.13% at 7,733.21, 2,764.95, 9,729.93 and 22,914.15 respectively.
    European markets, which opened after the Indian market, are trading in negative. In London FTSE 100 is down by 0.41% at 5,360.66 and in Frankfurt DAX index is trading lower by 0.28% at 5,788.79 and in Paris the CAC 40 is lower by 0.28% at 3,852.47.
    BSE IT index was at 4,826.40 up by 95.48 points or by (2.02%) The main gainers were Tcs Ltd up by (3.67%) at Rs.690.45, Mphasis Ltd up by (2.32%) at Rs.779.25, Infosys Technologies Ltd.-Ordi up by (1.96%) at Rs.2396.75, Rolta Ind up by (1.84%) at Rs.177, Tech Mah up by (1.37%) at Rs.1019.8.
    BSE TECk index was at 3,062.78 up by 30.74 points or by (1.01%) The main gainers were Tcs Ltd up by (3.67%) at Rs.690.45, Dish Tv up by (3.39%) at Rs.41.15, Mphasis Ltd up by (2.32%) at Rs.779.25, Infosys Technologies Ltd.-Ordi up by (1.96%) at Rs.2396.75, Rolta Ind up by (1.84%) at Rs.177.
    BSE REALTY index was at 3,977.02 down by 47.83 points or by (1.19%) The main losers were Housing Dev down by (3.08%) at Rs.357, Ansal Infras down by (3.01%) at Rs.69.2, Anant Raj In down by (2.19%) at Rs.138.75, Phoenix Mill down by (2.01%) at Rs.185, Dlf Ltd down by (1.95%) at Rs.377.8.
    BSE METAL index was at 15,973.36 up by 58.45 points or by (0.37%) The main gainers were Gujara Nre C up by (3.49%) at Rs.68.2, Hind.Zinc up by (3.44%) at Rs.991.8, Jindal Saw up by (2.01%) at Rs.820.75, Steel Author up by (1.82%) at Rs.187, Sesa Goa Ltd up by (0.76%) at Rs.359.35.
    BSE BANKEX index was at 10,337.08 up by 35.37 points or by (0.34%) The main gainers were Hdfc Bank Lt up by (1.47%) at Rs.1747.35, Bank Of India up by (1.11%) at Rs.383.95, Allahabad Bk up by (1.01%) at Rs.135.1, Federal Bank up by (0.83%) at Rs.238, Kotak Bank up by (0.8%) at Rs.829.5.
    BSE CG index was at 13,556.87 up by 42.57 points or by (0.31%) The main gainers were Crompton Greaves Ltd. up by (3.66%) at Rs.408.95, Praj Industries Ltd. up by (3%) at Rs.92.85, Aiaengineer up by (2.45%) at Rs.321.9, Thermax Lmtd up by (2.12%) at Rs.568.3, Areva up by (0.95%) at Rs.282.75.
    BSE CD index was at 3,533.96 up by 19.73 points or by (0.56%) The main gainers were Rajesh Expot up by (4.27%) at Rs.83.05, Gitanjali Ge* up by (3.28%) at Rs.119.75, Titan Ind. up by (0.51%) at Rs.1378.85, The main losers were Videocon Ind down by (0.83%) at Rs.221, Blue Star L down by (0.49%) at Rs.344.75,
    BSE POWER index was at 3,053.83 up by 3.20 points or by (0.1%) The main gainers were Crompton Greaves Ltd. up by (3.66%) at Rs.408.95, Rel Infra up by (1.89%) at Rs.1188.15 and Suzlonenergy up by (0.9%) at Rs.72.75.
    BSE OIL&GAS index was at 10,206.63 down by 72.9 points or by (0.71%) The main losers were Ong Corp Ltd down by (2.29%) at Rs.1172.2, Bharat Petroleum Corporation L down by (0.98%) at Rs.518 and Reliance down by (0.65%) at Rs.2133.75.
    Brigade Enterprises Ltd closed flat at Rs. 134.90. The company has announced its foray into affordable homes through Brigade Value Homes, with base prices ranging from Rs. 10-26 lakh.
    Wanbury surged 4.94% to closed at Rs. 65.80. The company has entered into an alliance with TAKE Solutions Ltd for installing their leading product PharmaReady SPL Solution Suite, a fully integrated web-based eDMS and eCTD Submissions Solution Suite for e-submissions.
    Jaihind Projects Ltd closed flat at Rs. 137.10. The company has been awarded order of Rs. 14.05 crores from Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd. (BPCL) for Provision of Cross Country Pipeline Laying and Associated works for Kochi Refinery to Cochin AFS Pipeline Project.
    Jet Airways (India) Ltd. (JETIN IN): India referred Jet Airways' plans to raise 20 billion rupees from foreign investors to a cabinet panel, according to a statement from the Foreign Investment Promotion Board yesterday. The shares fell 2.1 percent to 447.75 rupees.
    Larsen & Toubro Ltd. (LT IN): Gilbarco Inc. agreed to acquire the fuel dispensing-pump business of Larsen & Toubro, India's largest engineering company. Larsen shares rose 0.2 percent to 1,656.3 rupees.
    Reliance Industries Ltd. (RIL IN): India's most valuable company said it may become debt-free in less than two years and plans to acquire assets overseas to boost its revenue from the energy business. The shares fell 1 percent to 2,132.35 rupees.
    Steel Authority of India Ltd. (SAIL IN): India's second- biggest steelmaker plans to raise about $2 billion from offering investors a 10 percent stake in the company, executive director V. K. Mehta said yesterday. The shares rose 2.1 percent to 187.5 rupees.
       
     
    INVESTMENT VIEW
    Unity Infraprojects-Value Buy
    Unity is a leading engineering and construction company with well diversified project expertise across verticals. Some of the landmark projects done by Unity are expansion and modification at the Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport, Mumbai, Millennium Business Park in Navi Mumbai, mass housing projects for DDA in Delhi, tsunami reconstruction project in Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Jupiter Mills for Indiabulls Real Estate.
     
    Unity currently has a strong order book of Rs 4040 crore, 3.6x FY09 revenues. This provides revenue visibility over the next couple of years. Going forward, Unity, being the leading player with well diversified project execution skills is likely to be a key beneficiary of the government's thrust on infrastructure spending.
     
    Strong order book
     
    Unity order book of Rs 40 bn is executable over the next 33 months. The current order book is at 3.6x FY09 revenues and 3.2x on TTM revenues providing revenue visibility for
    the next three years. In terms of verticals, water and irrigation accounted for 49% followed by civil construction (40%) and transportation (11%).
     
    Infrastructure opportunities galore
     
    In order to target a GDP growth rate of 9-10% in the X1th Five Year Plan, the government has laid greater emphasis on investment in infrastructure spending. Infrastructure spending is expected to increase at 2.3x to Rs 20.27 trillion in the X1th Plan compared to the Xth plan. This bodes well for construction player such as Unity, going forward.
     
    Valuation
     
    At the current market price, the stock is trading at 9.1x FY09 EPS and 1.5x FY09 P/BV. On a TTM basis, the stock is currently trading at 8.7x its earnings of Rs 50.
     

    (Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
     
     
    --
    Arvind Parekh
    + 91 98432 32381
     
     

    Tuesday, November 17, 2009

    Market Outlook 17th Nov 2009

    INTRADAY calls for 17th Nov 2009
    +ve Sector, Scripts : Steel, Suzlon
    Buy Hindzinc-958 for 984+ with sl 950
    Buy LITL-553 for 566-578+ with sl 545

    Buy IRB-273 for 283-292+ with sl 267
    Buy Aban-1291 for 1330-1347 with sl 1279
     
    Positional
    Buy Unitech-86 for 100+ with sl 81
    Buy TATASteel-536 for 563-570+ with sl 530
     
    Expected Breakout
    Buy Rpower-151 above 153 for 163-168+ with sl 150
     
    Breakout
    Buy Maruthi-1558 for 1613-1624+ with sl 1545
    Buy ZeeL-269 for 278-284+ with sl 265
     
    NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
    RESISTANCE
    5081
    5100
    5117
    SUPPORT
    5050
    5032
    5015
    4965
    4948
     
    Strong & Weak  futures  
    This is list of 10 strong futures: 
    Recltd, Sesa Goa, Ashok Ley, Jindal Saw Steel, McDowell-N, Zeel, Finance Tech, M&M, Renuka & Neyveli Lignite.
    And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
    RCom, Tata Comm, GTL Infra, Idea, India Cement, GMR Infra, Bharti Airtel, EKC, Sterling Biotech & Unitech.
    Nifty is in Down trend  
     
    NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
    Rally may continue up to 5081 level for time being.
    Support at 5050 & 5052 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 5032-5034 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5015-5017 zone by non-stop.

    Buy if touches 4965-4967 zone. Stop Loss at 4948-4950 zone.

    On Positive Side, cross above 5098-5100 zone can take it up to 5115-5117 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
     
    Short-Term Investors:  
    1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 5024.00. Target at 5516.45
    1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 4620.00. Target at 6289.00.
    3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.
    1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.
     
    Today's Expectation:
    SGX Nifty is trading at 5074.50. (08.51 AM IST).
    This trend is on expected lines.
    If rally continues then it can continue up to 1 (or) 2 days, 1 Week, (or) even 1 Month.
    If profit booking starts then it can last for 1 day. If start trades & remain below 5062.45 (NF) then 1 day profit booking is possible.
     
    BSE SENSEX: 
     Buy with a SL of 16666.70. Target at 17083.20. 

    Short-Term Investors:  
    1 Week: Bullish with a SL of 16909.74. Target at 18488.92.
    1 Month: Bullish with a SL of 14937.03. Target at 18381.96.
    3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.
    1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
     
    POSITIONAL BUY
    JAIN STUDIOS (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 532033) 
    Buy with a Stop Loss of 10.80. Above 17.18, it will zoom.
     
    Today: May hold on gains.

    1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
     
    Buy KAILASH FICOM (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 530955) 
    Buy with a Stop Loss of 36.50. Above 42.70, it will zoom.
     
    Today: May hold on gains.

    1 Week: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

    1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.

    3 Months: Bullish, as per current market conditions.

    1 Year: Bullish, surprisingly going down.
     

    SPOT INDEX LEVELS
    NSE Nifty Index   5058.05 ( 1.18 %) 59.10       
      1 2 3
    Resistance 5089.50 5120.95   5168.70  
    Support 5010.30 4962.55 4931.10

    BSE Sensex  17032.51 ( 1.09 %) 183.68     
      1 2 3
    Resistance 17112.77 17193.03 17302.86
    Support 16922.68 16812.85 16732.59
    FUNDS DATA
    FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
    Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
    FII 16-Nov-2009 2446.31 1901.67 544.64
    DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
    Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
    DII 16-Nov-2009 843.31 1137.95 -294.64

    Interesting findings on web:
    U.S. stocks rallied, sending benchmark indexes to 13-month highs, and commodities gained as retail sales rebounded and Asian government leaders pledged to maintain economic stimulus spending. The dollar fell to a 15- month low and Treasury two-year yields touched the lowest level since January.
    U.S. stocks rose broadly on Monday, sending indexes to fresh 13-month closing highs, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke reinforced expectations that interest rates would stay low to spur growth.
    In the last hour of trading stocks briefly pared gains as Meredith Whitney, a prominent analyst, said in a CNBC television interview the stock market run-up was not supported by fundamentals.
    The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 136.49 points, or 1.33 percent, to 10,406.96. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX shot up 15.82 points, or 1.45 percent, to 1,109.30 -- its first close above the psychologically important 1,100 level for the first time since October 2008.
    The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC jumped 29.97 points, or 1.38 percent, to 2,197.85.
    With the Dow holding firmly above the psychologically important 10,000 level, investors are now turning their attention to another key high-water mark. Analysts say a sustained push above 1,100 points on the S&P 500 could pave the way for further gains in the weeks ahead.
    "The big news today was the S&P closing above 1,100," said David Levy, a portfolio manager at Kenjol Capital Management. "From a short-term perspective, that's very bullish for the market."
    After failing to close above 1,100 on three separate occasions over the last few months, the push above that key level suggests that the market is becoming more convinced that an economic recovery is under way, he said.
    "We see the market going higher into year end," Levy said.
    Retail sales jumped 1.4% in October from the prior month, according to the Census Bureau, exceeding the increase of 0.9% expected by a consensus of economists surveyed by Briefing.com. Excluding automobiles, sales rose 0.2%, falling short of the 0.4% gain forecast by Briefing.com consensus.
    That's compared to an overall decline of 1.5%, or an increase of 0.5% without auto sales, the prior month.
    A report from the New York Federal Reserve Bank showed manufacturing activity in New York State slowed in November. The Empire State index fell to 23.51 in early November from 34.57 in October, which was a five-year high.
    Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said economic "headwinds" of reduced bank lending and a weak labor market will probably restrain the pace of the U.S. economic recovery, warranting continued low borrowing costs.
    "Significant economic challenges remain," Bernanke said in a speech to the Economic Club of New York. "The flow of credit remains constrained, economic activity weak and unemployment much too high. Future setbacks are possible."
    Bernanke repeated that the Fed was likely to keep interest rates exceptionally low for "an extended period," a pledge that weighed on the U.S. dollar and drove investors to snap up shares of natural resource companies as prices of global commodities -- from gold to wheat -- shot higher.
    In a speech before the Economic Club of New York, Bernanke said the recovery would not be as robust as previously hoped, and rising unemployment and tight bank lending were significant headwinds.
    "The overriding message from Bernanke is that interest rates will stay low and remain low for the near to medium term. It seems that the market likes that," said Dennis Cajigas, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a retail brokerage firm in Chicago.

    "Investors essentially are borrowing against low rates in the dollar and putting that money in areas that they feel will react well against inflation, such as crude oil, energy, gold, commodities (and) stocks because the expected return should be higher over time."
    "You have a world of policy leaders that think it's too early to withdraw monetary stimulus," said Craig Peckham, equity trading strategist at Jefferies & Co. in New York.
    "Low interest rates have been encouraging speculators to use the dollar for a 'carry trade,' where they borrow the currency for next to nothing to invest in higher-yielding assets from other countries," Wantrobski wrote in a note. "If this is accurate, then the demand for dollars to fuel this carry trade is keeping the Dollar Index higher than it should be."
    Even though Bernanke made a rare statement on foreign exchange markets, saying the Fed was watching the U.S. dollar closely, the greenback found very little reprieve.
    The United States and China failed to reach an agreement over currencies at a summit of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Singapore.
    Bernanke, commenting on the dollar's decline, said the Fed is attentive to changes in the U.S. currency, and the Fed's mandate will help ensure the greenback remains strong.
    "If you take away stimulus, this economy falls apart. He knows it. He's boxed in here, he can't raise rates. It's impossible," said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey. "So what do we do? We continue to buy equities because that's what the trade is."
    Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co., said the market is focused on the anemic dollar. "As the dollar weakens, commodity prices go up," he said. "It's nothing new, but there's really nothing else driving the market right now."
    Stocks have soared over the past two weeks as investors have gained confidence in the pace of the economic recovery. The market has also been supported by signs that policy makers around the world will keep economic stimulus efforts in place for a prolonged period of time.
    Monday's rally reflects the "continuing resiliency of the market," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. He said stocks could continue higher as the market overcomes key technical levels and more investors are drawn in from the sidelines.
    The stock market has often moved in the opposite direction of the dollar lately, with traders apt to unload hoarded cash and increase their exposure to riskier assets such as stocks and commodities when there is confidence in the Fed's commitment to keep borrowing costs low.
    Whitney, in an interview with CNBC just after 3pm ET, said she was disappointed that Bernanke didn't spell out how the Fed planned to exit "the biggest Fed program to date, which is the mortgage-backed purchase program."
    "I haven't been this bearish in a year," Whitney said. "I look at the board and every single stock from Tiffany to Bank of America to Caterpillar is up. But there is no fundamental rooting as to why these stocks are up—particularly in the consumer space."

    Whitney, if you recall, was one of the first analysts to call the bubble in financial stocks.
    Home improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) reported a 30% drop in quarterly profit, but offered an optimistic outlook for fourth-quarter earnings.
    General Motors (GM, Fortune 500), releasing its first financial results since emerging from bankruptcy in July, said it lost $1.2 billion in the third quarter. It also said it would begin repaying government loans in December. The U.S. government would receive $1 billion, with nearly $200 million going to the governments of Canada and Ontario.
    Twenty-six of 30 Dow components finished higher. The decliners were: Bank of America [BAC  15.86    -0.12  (-0.75%)   ], Travelers [TRV  52.87    -0.41  (-0.77%)   ] Microsoft [MSFT  29.54    -0.09  (-0.3%)   ] and Wal-Mart [WMT  53.17    -0.03  (-0.06%)   ].
    Alcoa [AA  13.61    0.43  (+3.26%)   ] and ExxonMobil [XOM  74.41    1.94  (+2.68%)   ] were among the leaders on the Dow as the dollar retreated following the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, where no currency agreement was reached with China.
    The S&P materials .GSPM and energy .GSPE indexes each climbed more than 2.3 percent. Individual stock standouts included Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM.N), up 2.7 percent to $74.43 amid higher crude oil prices, and Caterpillar Inc (CAT.N) up 2.8 percent.
    Caterpillar, whose fortunes are closely tied to the commodities industries, was one of the biggest boosts to the Dow, along with Boeing Co (BA.N), up 3.6 percent to $52.48.
    Exxon Mobil Corp. led gains in 39 of 40 energy producers in the S&P 500 as the price of oil climbed the most in six weeks. Target Corp. and Sears Holdings Corp. rose as the U.S. government said retail sales grew 1.4 percent in October after slumping the most in nine months in September. American Express Co. surged 2.7 percent after loan defaults decreased for a sixth straight month.
    "The retail sales news seems to be overriding any of the other market news today," said Joseph Veranth, chief investment officer at Dana Investment Advisors in Brookfield, Wisconsin, which manages $2.8 billion. "Retail sales being up is going to help most of the market and most of the companies. People are just going to perceive that revenues are going to be stronger."
    Energy shares in the S&P 500 advanced 2.5 percent as a group for the top gain among 10 industries, all of which advanced. Crude oil for December delivery added 3.3 percent to $78.90 a barrel in New York, rebounding from two days of losses.
    Devon Energy Corp. rose 4.7 percent to $70.99. The biggest independent U.S. oil and gas producer plans to sell its Gulf of Mexico and overseas assets to raise as much as $7.5 billion to cut debt and fund onshore developments. Smith International Inc. and Peabody Energy Corp gained at least 4.4 percent each.
    Barrick Gold Corp., the world's largest producer of the precious metal, gained 2.6 percent to $43.99. Gold climbed to a record $1,144.20 an ounce on demand for a store of value amid speculation that the dollar will extend its decline.
    Newmont Mining Corp. advanced 2.8 percent to $52.39. The largest U.S. gold producer said the sale of a 10 percent stake in its Indonesian venture will be completed today.
    The rally in gold currently has "pretty positive" implications, Mark Bronzo, a money manager at Security Global Investors, which oversees $21 billion, said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio.
    "It's all part of this commodity trade versus a weaker dollar, which seems to be positive for the stock market for the time being," he said. "I think it lasts as long as the stimulus remains in effect."
    U.S. Steel Corp. and AK Steel Holding Corp jumped at least 4.8 percent. The steelmakers were added to JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s "Focus List" on prospects for rising prices as demand increases.
    Titanium Metals Corp. rallied 10 percent to $10.25, its steepest advance since March. The maker of specialty metals for jet planes said it entered a new supply agreement with Boeing Co. that takes effect when the current agreement expires at the end of next year. The new agreement expires at the end of 2015.
    Retailers rallied on the increase in October sales, which followed a 2.3 percent drop in September. Sales at automobile dealerships and parts stores jumped 7.4 percent after a 14 percent plunge the prior month that was larger than previously estimated.
    "Any good news on the U.S. consumer will be taken very positively," said Kevin Divney, chief investment officer at Beaconcrest Capital Management in Boston. "There's more and more focus on it this time of year leading up to the holiday season. So I think any positive consumption there will be taken very, very seriously."
    Target, the second largest discount chain, jumped 2.7 percent and Sears Holdings Corp. added 4.1 percent.
    Nordstrom Inc. gained 3.1 percent to $35.05. The U.S. department-store chain with more than 100 namesake locations was raised to "buy" from "neutral" at Goldman Sachs, which said the company "is a key beneficiary of a recovering high end consumer."
    American Express rallied 2.7 percent to $41.44. The biggest U.S. credit-card issuer by purchases said write-offs for loans deemed uncollectible decreased to 7.8 percent last month on an annualized basis, compared with 8.4 percent in September, the New York-based lender said today in a regulatory filing.
    S&P financial shares rallied as much as 2.4 percent before paring the gains and ending the day up 1.2 percent after banking analyst Meredith Whitney told CNBC that she expects a so-called double-dip recession in the U.S. and that she hasn't been so bearish in a year.
    Shares of Motors Liquidation Co., formed to sell the assets of General Motors during its bankruptcy reorganization, jumped 14 percent to 64 cents. General Motors Co. signaled confidence in its recovery from bankruptcy after it said it generated $3.3 billion in cash in the third quarter and plans to start repaying government loans early.
    A measure of automobile-related companies rose 3.3 percent for the top gain among 24 groups in the S&P 500.
    Dell rose 3.6 percent to $15.96. The personal-computer maker expanding into mobile phones was restarted "buy" at Goldman Sachs, which said the company will be a "key beneficiary of the PC upgrade cycle."
    Sprint Nextel Corp. jumped 13 percent to $3.50 for the biggest gain in the S&P 500. The third-largest U.S. mobile-phone carrier said it paid off $1 billion in debt, meaning it no longer has an outstanding balance on its $4.5 billion revolving credit facility.
    The S&P 500 Real Estate Index of 15 companies jumped 2.4 percent to its highest value since Sept. 22, led by ProLogis.
    ProLogis, the world's biggest warehouse owner, rose 5.1 percent to $14.29 after Cohen & Steers Inc. acquired about 14 million shares of the company for about $190.3 million, according to a Nov. 13 filing.
    Apartment Investment & Management Co. and Ventas Inc. jumped at least 3.7 percent. Deutsche Bank AG purchased about 4 million shares of Apartment Investment for $53.5 million, according to a Nov. 13 regulatory filing. Ventas was raised to "buy" from "hold" by Stifel Nicolaus & Co., which said health-care real-estate investment trusts will post "modest revenue growth" on existing portfolios in 2010 even as revenues are expected to decline in most other property sectors.
    Merck & Co. rose 2.2 percent to $33.81. The drugmaker's Global Human Health President Kenneth Frazier told CNBC that the company won't pull cholesterol pills Vytorin and Zetia off the market after a study that found they didn't reopen clogged arteries as well as Abbott Laboratories' Niaspan.
    On Nasdaq, Intel Corp (INTC.O) shares rose 2.2 percent to $20.25 after the chipmaker raised its quarterly dividend by more than 12.5 percent. The semiconductor index .SOXX climbed 2 percent.
    Citigroup [C  4.19    0.14  (+3.46%)   ] jumped on word that hedge-fund operator Paulson & Co. has taken a 300 million share stake in the bank, according to an SEC filing.
    NBC Universal and CNBC parent General Electric [GE  16.01    0.35  (+2.23%)   ] rose as today represents the opening of the annual window for Vivendi to sell its stake in NBCU—with a deal between GE and Comcast [CMCSA  15.85    0.42  (+2.72%)   ] for control of NBCU said to be close.
    The optimism was muted somewhat as Lowe's [LOW  21.73    -0.12  (-0.55%)   ], the No. 2 home retailer, reported a 30 percent decline in quarterly profit to 23 cents a share, just a penny below estimates. Larger rival Home Depot [HD  27.63    0.29  (+1.06%)   ] reports Tuesday.
    Wall Street's major averages are coming off two straight weekly gains. Economic data and retail earnings are likely to present either the biggest barrier to further gains—or the biggest influence. 
    Google [GOOG  576.28    4.23  (+0.74%)   ] has filed a revised settlement proposal for its litigation with authors and publishers over digital book rights. The original agreement was rejected by a judge following objections from the Justice Department.
    Cisco [CSCO  23.87    0.16  (+0.67%)   ] has increased its offer for Norwegian videoconferencing-gear maker Tandberg by 10.7 percent, and says this new offer is its "final price."
    Bristol Myers Squibb [BMY  24.34    1.16  (+5%)   ] is planning to split off its nutrition unit Mead Johnson [MJN  43.23    -2.02  (-4.46%)   ] into a separate company.
    And a new study finds the Abbott Labs [ABT  53.65    0.70  (+1.32%)   ] cholesterol treatment Niaspan more effective and safer than Merck's [MRK  33.86    0.76  (+2.3%)   ] Zetia.
    Per-share earnings have topped estimates at 80 percent of S&P 500 companies that have released third-quarter results, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 1993, even as profits slumped for a record ninth straight quarter. Companies including Home Depot Inc., Target Corp. and Dell Inc. are scheduled to report earnings this week.
    After the markets closed, troubled auto and mortgage lender GMAC shook up its executive suite, naming former Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) executive Michael Carpenter CEO.
    Oil, Gold & Currencies:
    Oil for December delivery jumped $2.55 to close at $78.90 a barrel.
    And gold prices, which have been on a tear this month, surged $22.50 to end at a new record of $1,139.20 a troy ounce.
    The dollar was lower versus major international currencies. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the U.S. currency's value against a basket of rivals, was down 0.3% to 74.94.
    Bonds:
    Long-dated Treasury prices posted solid gains in recent action. The 10-year note was up 21/32 to yield 3.345%. The 30-year bond was up 1-6/32 to yield 4.289%.
    What to expect:
    TUESDAY: PPI; industrial production; Fed's Lacker, Pianalto speak; Geithner speaks; NAHB housing index; Earnings from Home Depot, Target and TJX
    WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; CPI; housing starts; weekly crude inventories; Earnings from BJ's, Limited
    THURSDAY: EU chooses new president; Fed's Plosser, Fisher speak; Ghosn, Rattner speak; weekly jobless claims; leading indicators; Philly Fed; Geithner speaks; Earnings from Sears, Dell, Gap
    FRIDAY: Fed's Plosser speaks; state-by-state jobs report
    Other Headlines:
    Bernanke Says It Is `Not Obvious' Prices of Assets in U.S. Are Misaligned
    Dollar Trades at Almost 15-Month Low After Fed's Bernanke Pledges Support
    Australia's Central Bank Says Pace of Rate Gains Remains `Open Question'
    Taiwan, China Sign Agreement to Expand Financial Cooperation as Ties Warm
    Microsoft Co-Founder Paul Allen Being Treated for Lymphoma, Spokesman Says
    Costco Stops Restocking Coca-Cola Products in Competitive Pricing Dispute
    Obama, Hu to Take Up Trade, Climate Change in `Meeting of Minds' in China
    China's First Anti-Ship Missile May Create a `No-Go Zone' for U.S. Fleet
    Fed eyes dollar drop, but hews to low-rate pledge
    Obama in China grapples with economic strains 
    GMAC CEO resigns, Carpenter steps in
    BofA ex-counsel says "stunned" by firing
    One in seven Americans short of food
    NASA launches shuttle Atlantis to space station 
    Just one heart attack leads to 725 X-rays
    GM posts loss, vows to repay U.S. early
    NY Fed failed to negotiate AIG concessions: audit
    Fed's Kohn sees no asset bubbles building in U.S.
    Coca-Cola aims to double system revenue by 2020
    CIT has $1.07 billion loss before bankruptcy
    U.S. business group eyes cost in healthcare reform
    Prime broking draws smaller players as big ones rebuild
    CIT default swap auction to be held on November 20
    Retail sales surge on autos, manufacturing slows 
    CreditKarma raises $2.5 million to provide credit scores
    IAEA sees risk Iran hiding more nuclear activity
    Obama says al Qaeda still greatest threat to U.S.
    Afghanistan to form anti-graft unit as pressure grows
    Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Boosts Stake in Wal-Mart
    Time Warner to Spin Off AOL on December 9
    Gates Boosts Waste Management, Coca Cola Stakes
    Citi Shares, A Strange Indicator Of Unemployment?
    Samsung retakes top spot in U.S. LCD TV market
    Microsoft co-founder Allen diagnosed with cancer
    Nomura Extends Lead in Managing Asian Share Sales With Hitachi, MUFG Deals
    ICBC, Bank of China Seek Taiwan Branches After Agreement for Wider Access
    Japan's Deflation Concern Mounts Even as Economy Expands Most in Two Years
    CapitaLand Said to Raise $1.79 Billion Selling Shares in CapitaMalls Unit
    Rupee:
    The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 46.20/21 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 46.31/32.
    Asia:
    Asian stocks rose, led by technology and mining companies, after a report showed retail sales rebounded in the U.S. and commodity prices climbed.
    Canon Inc. advanced 2.4 percent in Tokyo, after the company agreed to buy Oce NV, the world's largest maker of wide-format printers. Those of Mitsubishi Corp., Japan's biggest commodities trader, gained 1.8 percent after oil and metal prices climbed. Alumina Ltd., an aluminum producer, added 3.4 percent in Sydney.
    "Consumption has been solid," said Kazuhiro Takahashi, a general manager at Daiwa Securities SMBC Co. in Tokyo. "This will prompt hopes for the Christmas sales season."
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 119.50 as of 9:50 a.m. in Tokyo. The gauge has climbed 69 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.3 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent. South Korea's Kospi Index gained 0.2 percent.
    Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were little changed. The gauge rose 1.5 percent yesterday after government figures showed retail sales increased 1.4 percent in October after a 2.3 percent drop in September. The gain beat an estimate of a 0.9 percent gain by economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
    Crude oil for December delivery jumped 3.3 percent to $78.90 a barrel in New York yesterday, the largest increase since Sept. 30. The London Metals Index, a measure of six metals including copper and zinc, climbed 4.7 percent yesterday, the biggest gain since Aug. 3.
    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index's rally since March outpaced gains of 64 percent for the S&P 500 and 59 percent for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index. Stocks in the MSCI gauge are valued at 22 times estimated earnings, compared with 18 times for the S&P and 16 times for the Stoxx. 

    Nikkei 225 9,777.42     -13.76 ( - 0.14%). (08.19 AM IST)
    HSI 22944.49 +0.51 +0%. (08.19 AM IST)
    SSE Composite 3275.05 3297.41 3298.38 3280.64 + 0.68. (08.21 AM IST)
       INDIA:
    India's benchmark stock index gained, led by steel and car makers, after the government said sales of the alloy to auto manufacturers rose in the first seven months of the fiscal year.
    Maruti Suzuki India Ltd., the maker of half the cars sold in India, advanced 5.4 percent after Steel Secretary Atul Chaturvedi said Nov. 14 that the nation's steel demand grew 7 percent from April to October, underscoring an economic revival. Tata Steel Ltd., the country's biggest producer of the alloy, rose 3 percent.
    "There is a strong demand for auto and infrastructure," said P. Phani Sekhar, who manages funds for wealthy individuals at Angel Broking Ltd. in Mumbai. "This shows the economic recovery is very strong."
    The Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, added 183.68, or 1.1 percent, to 17,032.51. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange gained 1.2 percent to 5,058.05. The BSE 200 Index climbed 1.2 percent to 2,115.25.
    Maruti Suzuki advanced 5.4 percent to 1,558.35 rupees. Hero Honda Motors Ltd., India's biggest motorcycle maker, increased 4.3 percent to 1,647.1 rupees. Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., the largest maker of sport-utility vehicles and tractors, advanced 1.9 percent to 1,048.9 rupees.
    Increasing demand for automobiles, refrigerators and air conditioners and rising farm incomes are boosting steel sales in India, the world's second fastest-growing major economy. The nation's industrial production in September rose 9.1 percent from a year earlier, according to Nov. 12 government data.
    'Better Numbers'
    "With every passing month and quarter the numbers are better than what we saw," said Krish Shanbhag, the head of research at Antique Stock Broking Ltd. in Mumbai. "All data is pointing that we are well on our way to economic recovery."
    Tata Steel Ltd., the biggest producer of the alloy, gained 3 percent to 536.55 rupees. Hindalco Industries Ltd., the biggest aluminum producer, rose 2.7 percent to 134.4 rupees.
    The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback's performance, dropped as much as 0.6 percent, down for a second consecutive trading session. That makes dollar-denominated metals cheaper for holders of other currencies. Japan, the fourth-largest copper consumer, said its economy expanded at the fastest pace in two years.
    Copper for three-month delivery added $175, or 2.7 percent, to $6,695 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange. Aluminum gained 1.8 percent to $1,980 a ton.
    Sterlite
    Sterlite Industries (India) Ltd., the No. 1 copper and zinc producer, rose 3.6 percent to 866.95 rupees after a judge in Texas ruled that Grupo Mexico SAB can regain control of its bankrupt U.S. copper miner, Asarco LLC, rejecting a competing offer from Sterlite.
    "The rejection of Sterlite's bid for Asarco is seen as a positive by the market in the short term," said Alex Mathews, head of research at Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services Ltd. in Kochi. "In the long run, the deal may have been good for the company."
    UltraTech Cement Ltd. gained 1.2 percent to 738.65 rupees after saying it will merge with Samruddhi Cement Ltd. to create the country's biggest and the world's 10th-largest maker of the building material.
    Tata Motors Ltd., India's biggest truckmaker and owner of Jaguar Land Rover Ltd., rose 2.4 percent to 634.85 rupees. General Electric Co.'s GE Capital division agreed to provide a five-year working-capital facility of as much as 170 million pounds to Tata Motors's Jaguar Land Rover unit in the U.K., the financing company said today in a statement.
    Suzlon
    Suzlon Energy Ltd., the nation's No. 1 maker of wind- turbine generators, soared 8.2 percent to 72.15 rupees after a unit got an order for wind turbines to generate 21 megawatts of power. The order for the community-based Grant County Wind Farm in southwestern Minnesota will produce power for 7,000 homes in the area, Suzlon said in an e-mailed statement today.
    Overseas funds bought a net 1.51 billion rupees ($33 million) of Indian stocks Nov. 12, the Securities and Exchange Board of India said on its Web site. The funds have bought 713.1 billion rupees of Indian stocks this year to date, compared with record net sales of 530 billion rupees for the whole of 2008.
    Improving economy powers banks, investors upbeat
    * Foreign fund buying nears $15 bln in 2009
    Reliance Industries, State Bank, ICICI Bank lead rise
    Sterlite gains as court ruling favours rival's Asarco bid
    Software firms drag as rupee climbs to near month high
    Indian shares climbed more thana percent on Monday to their highest close in nearly a month,with energy giant Reliance Industries (RELI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and banks such as State Bank of India (SBI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) and ICICI Bank (ICBK.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) powering the rise on optimism about the economy.
    Asia's third-largest economy could expand between 6 and 7 percent in the year to March 2010 despite a bad monsoon, thefinance minister said on Saturday. [ID:nLE159959] "The effort now is to bring the economy back on the growthpath of 9 percent per annum," Pranab Mukherjee said without giving a time frame. Traders said banks would be a beneficiary as demand picks up and companies begin to invest in expansion projects. An improving economy would also lower the risk of consumer defaults, they said. "We are positive on SBI and ICICI Bank as their long-term growth story is intact," said Jigar Shah, vice-president of equity sales at Motilal Oswal. State Bank, the country's largest lender, rose 2 percent to 2,344.65 rupees while rival ICICI gained 1 percent to 918.85rupees.
    Reliance Industries, which has the highest weight in the main index, rose 1.5 percent to 2,147.75 rupees, ahead of its annual general meeting on Tuesday.
    The 30-share BSE Index .BSESN rose 1.09 percent, or 183.68 points, to 17,032.51 points, its best close since Oct. 20. Twenty-six of its components ended in the green. "Positive global cues and asset allocation are helping our market," Shah said. "When there is a view built up that the future is better, people do not mind buying at higher valuations." The benchmark rose above 17,000 for the first time since Oct. 23 and is up more than 7 percent this month, after shedding 7.2 percent in October in its worst monthly performance in a year. Foreign funds have been a driver for the market, ploughing in nearly $15 billion so far in 2009. The inflow has lifted the index more than three-quarters in the period.
    Metals producer Sterlite Industries (STRL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) added 3.6 percent to 867 rupees after a U.S. federal judge issued a ruling supporting a bid by rival Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX: Quote, Profile, Research) for Asarco LLC. [ID:nN14494858] Morgan Stanley said the decision may remove confusion related to Asarco and bring focus back to Sterlite's more lucrative initiatives, especially in India. The development also frees up cash that can be utilized forits new projects, it said in a note. "We believe investors would also appreciate in the mediumterm, that Sterlite should be better off not having Asarco assets than having bought the same at a price higher than $2.2 billion (Sterlite's penultimate bid)," Morgan Stanley said.
    Top vehicle maker Tata Motors (TAMO.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 2.3 percent to 633.90 rupees after the Financial Times said Jaguar Land Rover was expected to announce it secured a 170 million pound working capital facility from GE Capital [GECAIC.UL].[ID:nLG120998] Leading carmaker Maruti Suzuki (MRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) firmed 5.5 percent to 1,560.40 rupees on robust volume outlook. "With macro environment improving, there are catalysts in form of improving product mix, lower raw material cost and higher operating leverage which would drive profitability and earnings growth for the company," Motilal Oswal said in a note. Export-focused software firms dropped as the rupee firmed to its strongest against the dollar in nearly a month.
    Top software services company Tata Consultancy (TCS.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) shed 1 percent and rival Infosys Technologies (INFY.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) lost 0.3 percent. Wipro (WIPR.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) bucked the trend and closed 0.6 percent higher. In the broader market, gainers outnumbered losers in a ratio of 1.8:1 on relatively lower volume of 342 million shares. The 50-share NSE index .NSEI closed 1.2 percent higher at 5,058.05.
    STOCKS THAT MOVED * UltraTech Cement (ULTC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) ended up 1.5 percent at 740.30rupees after swinging widely in early deals. Its board approved issuing four shares for every seven held in group firm Samruddhi Cement, which it will absorb to form India's largest cement firm. [ID:nSP337897] *
    Drug maker Glenmark Pharmaceuticals (GLEN.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 3.5 percent to 230.05 rupees. It said its Glenmark Generics has settled all pending litigation with Medicis Pharmaceutical Corp (MRX.N: Quote, Profile, Research) relating to patent actions regarding Fluocinonide.
    * Wind turbine maker Suzlon Energy (SUZL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) rose 8.1 percent to 72.10 rupees. Its North American unit won an order to supply wind turbines with a capacity to produce 21 megawatts of electricity.
    Among the BSE sectoral indices, the Realty index was the top gainer, adding 3%, followed by the Auto index that was up 2.8% and the BSE Metals index was up 2.2%.
    Even the BSE Mid-Cap index gained 1% and the BSE Small-Cap index was up 1.1%.
    Only the BSE IT index was on the receiving end, the index was down 0.3%.
    Among the 30-components of Sensex, 26 stocks ended in the green and only Infosys, TCS, NTPC and HDFC Bank ended in the negative terrain. Among the major gainers were, Reliance Industries, SBI, Maruti, Sterlite and ICICI Bank.
    Outside the frontline indices, the big gainers in the broader market were EKC, Pantaloon, IRC Infra, REC and Jain Irrigation. On the other hand, losers included Balramour Chini, Godrej Cons, Crompton Greaves and Mphasis.
    Shares of Suzlon Energy surged by over 8% to Rs72 after the company announced that its unit received an order for wind turbines to generate 21MW of power. The order for the community-based Grant County Wind Farm in southwestern Minnesota will produce power for 7,000 homes in the area, the company added.
    The stock opened at Rs67.10 and made an intra-day high of Rs72.6 and a low of Rs67.10. Total traded volumes stood at 21.1mn shares.
    Shares of Aban Offshore advanced by 5% to Rs1291 after the company announced that they raised US$150mn selling shares to institutional investors, reports stated. The shares were sold at an average price of Rs1,224.3 per share, reports added. Citigroup Inc. managed the share sale for Aban Offshore.
    Shares of Tata Motors advanced by 2.5% to Rs633 after reports stated that the company's Jaguar Land Rover unit will get a US$250mn loan from General Electric Capital Corp.
    GE Caps has undertaken to finance all new production of JLR cars from the time the cars leave the factory for up to 90 days, while the cars are in transit to dealers.
    Shares of Asian Electronics rallied by over 19% to Rs41.2 after ~490,960 equity shares or 1.7% of the company were transacted almost at an average price of Rs40.90 per shares. The stock opened at Rs35.4 and made an intra-day high of Rs41.5 and a low of Rs35. Total traded volumes stood at 4.8mn shares.
    Shares of GVK Power surged by over 3.5% to Rs50.4 after reports stated that the company will complete the acquisition of a 13.5% stake of its South African partner Bidvest in Mumbai International Airport. The stock opened at Rs49.5 and made an intra-day high of Rs50.5 and a low of Rs48.8. Total traded volumes stood at 2.6mn shares.
    Shares of Mahindra Lifespace surged by over 5% to Rs371 after reports stated that the company plans to construct a residential complex at its SEZ – Mahindra World City – near Chennai with an estimated cost of Rs4bn. The stock opened at Rs360 and made an intra-day high of R378 and a low of Rs352. Total traded volumes stood at 31,000 shares.
    Shares of HT Media surged by over 8% to Rs143 after the company announced that it plans to sell Hindi Publications to Hindustan Media Ventures for Rs1.49bn cash. The stock opened at Rs135 and made an intra-day high of Rs153 and a low of Rs132.3. Total traded volumes stood at 0.5mn shares.
    Among the Sensex pack 26 stocks closed in green while 4 ended in red. The market breadth indicating the overall health of the market remained strong as 1,758 stocks closed in positive while 1,017 stocks closed in negative while 89 stocks remained unchanged in BSE.
    The BSE Sensex closed with gains of 183.68 points or (1.09%) at 17,032.51 and NSE Nifty closed up by 59.10 points or (1.18%) at 5,058.05. The BSE Mid Caps and Small Caps closed with gains of 73.15 points and 90.13 points at 6,491.80 and 7,499.83 respectively. The BSE Sensex touched intraday high of 17,083.20 and intraday low of 16,893.11.
    Gainers from the BSE Sensex pack are Maruti Suzuki (5.45%), DLF (4.54%), Hero Honda (3.82%), Sterlite Industries (3.55%), Reliance Communication (3.05%), Tata Steel (2.65%), Hindalco Industries (2.60%) and Tata Motors (2.32%).
    Losers from the BSE Sensex pack are TCS (0.63%), Infosys Technologies (0.34%), NTPC (0.16%), HDFC Bank (0.04%).
    On the global markets front, the Asian markets that opened before the Indian market, closed on a positive note. Hang Seng, Shanghai Composite, Nikkei, Straits Times and Seoul Composite index closed up by 1.73%, 2.74%, 0.21%, 2.08% and 1.30% at 22,943.98, 3,275.04, 9,791.18, 2,783.85 and 1,592.47 respectively.
    European markets, which opened after the Indian market, are trading higher. In London FTSE 100 is up by 1.57% at 5,359.16 and in Frankfurt DAX index is trading with gains of 1.12% at 5,750.79 and in Paris the CAC 40 is up by 0.98% at 3,843.20.
    BSE REALTY indexwas at 4,024.85 up by 122.76 points or by (3.15%) The main gainers were Ansal Infras up by (9.01%) at Rs.71.35, Orbitco up by (7.83%) at Rs.311.3, Mahindralife up by (5.31%) at Rs.370.65, Anant Raj Ind. up by (4.96%) at Rs.141.85, Dlf Ltd up by (4.54%) at Rs.385.3.
    BSE METAL index was at 15,914.91 up by 373.92 points or by (2.41%) The main gainers were Hind.Zinc up by (3.99%) at Rs.958.8, Sterlite In up by (3.55%) at Rs.867, Sesa Goa Ltd up by (3.45%) at Rs.356.65, Jsw Sl up by (3.11%) at Rs.924.4, Tata Stl up by (2.65%) at Rs.535.05.
    BSE BANKEX index was at 10,301.71 up by 99.53 points or by (0.98%) The main gainers were Bank Of India up by (3.46%) at Rs.379.75, State Bank Of India up by (2.03%) at Rs.2344.65, Federal Bank up by (1.77%) at Rs.236.05, PNB up by (1.76%) at Rs.924.25, Oriental Bank up by (1.62%) at Rs.269.
    BSE AUTO index was at 6,974.21 up by 196.72 points or by (2.9%) The main gainers were Amtek Auto L up by (8.86%) at Rs.194.7, Marutisuzuki up by (5.45%) at Rs.1560.4, Herohonda M up by (3.82%) at Rs.1639.5, Bajaj Auto up by (3.57%) at Rs.1514, Ashok Leylnd up by (3.15%) at Rs.54.
    BSE CD index was at 3,514.23 up by 40.19 points or by (1.16%) The main gainers were Videocon Ind up by (2.91%) at Rs.222.85, Rajesh Expot up by (2.51%) at Rs.79.65, Blue Star L up by (0.41%) at Rs.346.45, Gitanjali Gems up by (0.35%) at Rs.115.95, Titan Ind. up by (0.34%) at Rs.1371.85,
    BSE POWER index was at 3,050.63 up by 27.92 points or by (0.92%) The main gainers were Suzlonenergy up by (8.1%) at Rs.72.1, Rpower up by (5.33%) at Rs.151.25, Lanco Infra up by (5.14%) at Rs.552.45, Gvk Powerinf up by (3.7%) at Rs.50.4, Siemens Ltd up by (2.34%) at Rs.569.9.
    BSE OIL&GAS index was at 10,279.53 up by 139.14 points or by (1.37%) The main gainers were Aban Offsho up by (4.59%) at Rs.1291.45, Gail India up by (1.96%) at Rs.385.05, Reliance up by (1.47%) at Rs.2147.75, Cairn Ind up by (1.37%) at Rs.280.3, Ong Corp Ltd up by (1.36%) at Rs.1199.65.
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    ICICI Bank Ltd. (ICICIBC IN): India's second-largest lender is "hoping" to raise about $700 million in bonds through its medium-term note program, the Economic Times reported, citing three sources familiar with the deal it didn't name. The stock rose 1.1 percent to 919.3 rupees.
    Infosys Technologies Ltd. (INFO IN): India's second-largest software exporter by revenue expects the budgets of its customers to be unchanged or slightly lower next year, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing Chief Financial Officer V. Balakrishnan. The stock fell 0.3 percent to 2,351.95 rupees.
    Jaiprakash Associates Ltd. (JPA IN): The Indian engineering company plans to sell 60 million shares in its unit Jaypee Infratech Ltd. and borrow 5 billion rupees selling commercial paper. The shares rose 1.3 percent to 234.8 rupees.
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    INVESTMENT VIEW
    Aban Offshore: The Storm Clouds Have Passed Over! Target Rs 1760
     
    Crude price has recovered from $ 30/bbl to roughly $75/bbl within a period of 8 months. The recovery has been on the back of increased estimates of crude oil demand for CY10. With Crude prices above break even level for deep water blocks, the demand for jack-up rigs is firming up. Consequently Rig utilisation rates measured by US corporation Baker Hughes have a consecutive increase for nearly all of 2009.
     
    During q2FY10 Aban contracted out six vessels on long term contracts, leaving just 3 rigs un-deployed. Revenue visibility for FY10 has risen 100 per cent and another 75 per cent for FY11. By FY11 Aban should report rig utilisation of nearly 95 per cent, another massive positive for the stock to outperform.
     
    During FY11, Aban has debt worth $ 410 coming up for repayment. The corporate has recently opened up a $ 150 mn QIP issue which should take care partially the debt repayment needs, in addition it will earn close to $ 500 mn in free cash flows by end FY10, both put together should be sufficient to meet the debt repayment/refinancing needs.
     
    Ofcourse, there will be a 10 to 15 per cent Equity dilution, but this will go towards strengthening the Debt Equity ratio for the company while pulling down the Debt to more manageable levels.
     
    All told and with all negatives priced in Aban should report FY11 EPS of Rs 316, which prices the Equity at just 4 times FY11 earnings. Given the higher debt, a 25 per cent discount to global players like Transglobal which fetch a PE of 10, should give Aban a near term target of Rs 1760...a near 36 per cent premium to the existing CMP of Rs 1291.45.
     
    The stock is worth taking the risk, given odds seem stacked in its favour.
     

    (Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
     
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    Arvind Parekh
    + 91 98432 32381