Market Outlook 14th Aug 2009

INTRADAY calls for 14th Aug 2009
Buy KALPATpower-786 for a target 811-815 stop loss 780

Buy HDIL-301 above 307 for a target 324 stop loss 300
Buy BGREnergy-373 for a target 385 stop loss 369
Buy MAHLife-325 for a target 347 stop loss 320

Yesterday's BTST
Buy LITL-433 for a target 442-445 stop loss 428
Buy ROLTA-159 for a target 165-167 stop loss 155
Buy TATAsteel-470 for a target 478-485 stop loss 464

Positional
Buy Jindalstel-3137 for a target 3400 stop loss 3080

 

Strong & Weak  futures, This is list of 10 strong futures: Jindal Saw, FSL, Patni, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Bharat Forge, Bhushan Steel, Aurobindo Pharma, HDIL & Cummins India. And this is list of 10 Weak futures: Union Bank Of India, Chambal Fert, Divi'S Lab, Suzlon, Federal Bank, Colpal, IOB, Nagarjun Fertil, Dabur India & Hind Uni Lvr., Nifty is sideways 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 
Rally may continue up to 4634 level for time being.

Support at 4587 & 4601 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4545-4547 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4505-4507 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 4384-4386 zone. Stop Loss at 4344-4346 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4674-4676 zone can take it up to 4714-4716 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop.
Stop Loss Triggered.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.

 

INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy HCL INFOSYSTEMS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 126 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 134 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 141 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 119 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy SASKEN COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGI (NSE Cash) 

Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 141 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 151 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 157 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 135 level for your long positions too.
 
Global Cues & Rupee
 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,398.19. Up by 36.58 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,012.73. Up by 6.92 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,009.35. Up by 10.63 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 48.11/12 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than 48.37/38 at close on Wednesday.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks ended higher Thursday after a choppy session, as the Fed's economic outlook and a positive government debt auction overshadowed a report showing a surprise drop in retail sales.

Stocks eked out a gain after a late rally Thursday as investors cheered an encouraging business-inventories report, the latest sign that the recession is winding down.

It was a rocky session after the day's mixed bag of news: Wal-Mart beat earnings expectations but some of the other economic data was lousy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 36.58 points, or 0.39%, to 9398.19, the Standard & Poor's 500 added 6.92 points, or 0.69%, to 1012.73 and the Nasdaq Composite picked up 10.63 points, or 0.53%, to 2009.35.

Thursday's trading got off to a rocky start amid a technical glitch on the New York Stock Exchange. The exchange said customers "are currently experiencing issues" with acknowledgments of order entries, causing a delay in orders and trades.

"It was incredibly frustrating as I was attempting to cancel an order and had no idea if the cancel went through or not and really did not want to have double the amount of shares," said one trader, Harry. "When I finally was able to get a confirmation, 30 minutes had gone by and the stock price had moved in a 70-cent range."

The NYSE ultimately canceled the orders that were pending from the outage, but it did little to restore traders' faith in the system.

"NYSE's attitude is they are responsible for nothing," Harry said, adding: "Probably a good stock to go short. I know I intend to try and have my orders go elsewhere." [NYX  29.12    -0.21  (-0.72%)   ]

Network issues caused some delays in orders and trades on the New York Stock Exchange just after the opening bell Thursday,

though the issue was resolved within the first half hour of trading. Slightly less than 2,000 securities were affected by the network problem, which affected four of the exchange's electronic matching engines for buy and sell orders.

Business inventories dropped 1.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted $1.35 trillion, helped by a 0.9-percent increase in sales.

The inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.38 from 1.41. But jobless claims rose unexpectedly by 4,000 to 558,000.

A couple of retailers beat earnings expectations, including retail titan Wal-Mart.

Wal-Mart [WMT  51.88    1.37  (+2.71%)   ] reported a flat profit, as the strong dollar hurt the value of international sales and stimulus checks last year made for tough year-over-year comparisons, but still topped expectations. Its shares rose 2.7 percent.

And department-store chain Kohl's narrowly beat estimates, helped by cheaply-priced and trendy merchandise. Shares rose 0.2 percent.

Overall, the retail sector finished mixed, with Macy's down 1.5 percent, after the government reported its measure of retail sales slipped 0.1 percent, after increasing an upwardly-revised 0.8 percent in June. Economists had expected a 0.7-percent increase for July, helped by the "Cash for Clunkers" program.

"Many families postponed the bulk of their back-to-school shopping this year, possibly waiting to take advantage of their state sales tax holiday or hoping for additional discounts," said Rosalind Wells, chief economist of the National Retail Federation. "Hopefully, retailers' aggressive promotions and reduced inventory levels will make for a better August and shield retailers from a disappointing season."

Home Depot shares [HD  27.68    0.48  (+1.76%)   ] rose 1.8 percent after Jefferies raised its price target on the stock to $32 from $29 and FBR raised its rating to "outperform" from "market perform."

Jefferies also raised its price target on Home Depot rival Lowe's [LOW  23.31    0.46  (+2.01%)   ], but FBR cut its rating on the stock to "market perform" from "outperform." Lowe's shares gained 2 percent.

High-end retailer Nordstrom will report earnings after the bell. Its shares climbed 1.1 percent ahead of the news.

Bank stocks led the board once again, with Bank of America [BAC  17.00    1.07  (+6.72%)   ] up 6.7 percent following news that hedge-fund titan John Paulson snapped up 168 million BAC shares.

Financial shares added to the gains. Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) all rose along with regional banks such as Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB, Fortune 500) and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index gained 3.1%.

The Dow was led higher Thursday by gains of about 6% each from Bank of America (BAC: 17, 1.09, 6.85%) and Alcoa (AA: 13.71, 0.75, 5.79%). Nearly half of the index's 30 components lost ground, including United Technologies (UTX: 57.43, -0.74, -1.27%) and Caterpillar (CAT: 47.15, -0.449, -0.94%).

Shares of retailers like Sears (SHLD: 78.37, 0.68, 0.88%) and Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF: 33.02, 0.91, 2.83%) ended flat to slightly higher.

The basic materials sector on Wall Street rose in response as metals and mining stocks like Freeport-McMoRan (FCX: 66.05, 3.14, 4.99%) and AK Steel Holding (AKS: 21.48, 0.88, 4.27%) rose sharply.

Las Vegas Sands (LVS: 13.86, 1.57, 12.77%) soared 12% after the casino operator said it completed an amendment to its $3.3 billion Macau credit facility. The amendment increases the company's interest rates but gives it flexibility to sell a minority stake in its Macau operations.

Urban Outfitters (URBN: 29.06, 0.84, 2.98%) reported a 14% decline in net income but the retailer's EPS of 29 cents a share topped estimates. The company's second-quarter sales rose by a better-than-expected 1% to $459 million even as its same-store sales tumbled 3%.

Estee Lauder (EL: 37.8, 0.12, 0.32%) reported a net loss in its latest quarter amid weak sales but the beauty products company's adjusted-profit of 20 cents per share matched the Street's view. Net sales tumbled by 16% to $1.68 billion, missing a $1.72 billion target.

DuPont (DD: 33.24, 0.77, 2.37%) unveiled plans to streamline its organization by consolidating its wide-ranging 23 businesses and eliminating five group vice president positions. The Dow component also named a new leadership team in the wake of the retirement of Richard Goodmanson, its chief operating officer.

Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS: 25.01, 1.46, 6.2%) easily beat the Street with a 46% jump in net income to 62 cents per share. The maker of Snapple and Mott's apple juice said its net sales tumbled 4% to $1.48 billion. Dr. Pepper also upgraded its 2009 profit outlook.

CIT Group [CIT  1.45    0.17  (+13.28%)   ] jumped 13 percent after the lender said it has adopted a tax-benefits-preservation plan, a move designed to preserve shareholder value, and signed an agreement to report regularly to the Fed.

E*Trade shares [ETFC  1.40    -0.06  (-4.11%)  ] skidded 4.1 percent after Citadel Investment Group, the hedge  fund that had injected capital into the struggling firm, said it would slash its investment in the company by more than two-thirds in the next few months.

In tech land, JPMorgan raised its price target for both Dell [DELL  14.29    0.45  (+3.25%)   ] and Hewlett Packard [HPQ  44.35    0.17  (+0.38%)   ]. Dell's target was raised to $13 from $10, while HP was lifted to $49.50 from $40.

Dell rose 3.3 percent, and HP shares gained 0.4 percent.

Among stocks to watch, LDK Solar swung to a second-quarter loss on a previously disclosed inventory write-down as sales slumped.

The company also projected third-quarter revenue below Wall Street expectations, sending its U.S. shares down more than 13.1%.

Similarly, Barclays Capital raised its price target for Apple [AAPL  168.45    3.14  (+1.9%)   ] to $208 from $188, citingsolid product pipeline such as the iPhone and prospects for strong free cash flow. Apple shares advanced 1.9 percent.

Here are Thursday's winners and losers

Winners:

Harris Corp. (HRS: 34.22, 3.73, 12.23%)

The IT company watched shares soar 12.1% on better-that-expected quarterly earnings. HRS shares closed at $34.19,a gain off $3.70.

Tellabs Inc. (TLAB: 6.85, 0.62, 9.95%)

An upgrade from Morgan Keegan pushed the communication company up 10%. TLAB shares last traded at $6.85, up 62 cents.

Massey Energy Co. (MEE: 30.5, 2.34, 8.31%)

The coal producer followed the sector's upward trend up 8.4%. MEE shares finished trading at $30.54, a gain of $2.36.

Regions Financial Corp. (RF: 5.2, 0.41, 8.56%)

News that hedge Paulson & Co. purchased 35 million shares of the bank skyrocketed the stock up 7.9% Thursday. RF shares closed at $5.20, a gain of 38 cents.

Tenet Healthcare Corp. (THC: 4.44, 0.31, 7.51%)

The health-care services company led the sector with a 7.5% gain. THC shares last traded at $4.43, up 31 cents.

Losers:

E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC: 1.4, 0.03, 2.19%)

The stock plummeted 4.1% on the news that Citadel Investment Group sold its shares in the online-investing company. ETFC shares last traded at $1.40, down 6 cents.

Constellation Energy Group Inc. (CEG: 29.0301, -1.2299, -4.06%)

The utility provider recovered from session lows but still traded down 4.1%. CEG shares closed at $29.03, a loss of $1.23.

CBS Corp. (CBS: 10.29, -0.4, -3.74%)

A Caris downgrade dropped the broadcasting company 4%. CBS shares ended the session at $10.29, down 43 cents.

D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI: 12.95, -0.51, -3.79%)

A Citi downgrade cost the homebuilder 3.7%. DHI shares finished Thursday at $12.95, a loss of 50 cents.

Washington Post Co. (WPO: 475.59, -16.43, -3.34%)

The publisher fell 3.4% to end the session. WPO shares last traded at $475.60, a loss of $16.76.

Europe's two biggest economies, France and Germany, posted surprise returns to growth in the second quarter, boosting investor optimism further.

Today's $15 billion auction of 30-year bonds was met with strong demand, suggesting investors aren't totally convinced of the recovery's trajectory. The auction fetched a high yield of 4.541 percent, slightly higher than expected,  but the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.54, reflecting higher-than-usual demand.

This came after a mediocre sale of 10-year notes on Wednesday.

Offering some encouragement for the global economy, German and French gross domestic product each rose by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, bringing the countries out of recession. Economists had expected a 0.3-percent contraction in both countries.

Economy:

Indications that the global economy could be stabilizing provided investors with some ptimism, but that was countered by Thursday's weak readings on consumers.On Thursday, both France and Germany posted GDP growth in the second quarter, surprising economists.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve provided a little optimism Wednesday, saying that although economic activity is likely to remain weak, the decline is leveling out and financial market conditions appear to have improved. This seemed to echo recent reports showing the economy is stabilizing.

"We're starting to see an improvement and we could see a quarter or so of higher growth on recovering inventories," said Stephen Mahoney, fixed income portfolio manager at Glenmede Investment Management.

"But the question is where do we go from here?," he said. "We need to see a few quarters of strong growth, not just one quarter."

Future growth could be constrained by consumers, who continue to beef up their savings and avoid spending on non-essentials, as Thursday's retail sales and jobless claims reports made clear.

The Commerce Department reported Thursday that business inventories declined for the 10th straight month.

Friday brings reports on consumer sentiment, industrial production and capacity utilization -- and consumer prices.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July is expected to come in unchanged, as inflationary pressure remains benign. CPI rose 0.7% in June. The so-called Core CPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, is expected to have risen 0.1% after rising 0.2% in June. The Labor Department releases the report.

The Commerce Department said U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July.

The drop in July retail sales - which came despite the debut of the government's "cash for clunkers" program meant to jump-start the auto business and help turn around the economy - was a huge disappointment on Wall Street. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast a 0.8% increase in July retail sales.

The gains in stock futures came amid a surprise rise in German and French output in the second quarter, stronger-than-expected Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) earnings and Wednesday's more upbeat assessment from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, U.S. stocks climbed after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, said it slow the purchase of long-term Treasurys and said economic activity is leveling out. 

Retail sales slip:

According to Thursday's retail sales report, demand for goods aside from cars took a large tumble last month, with big declines for housing-related retailers and electronic stores. Excluding autos, all other retail sales dropped 0.6%; economists expected a 0.1% gain.

Vouchers for the car rebate program weren't available until the last part of July; perhaps the program will have a more positive effect on overall retail sales for August.

Retail sales fell 0.1% in July, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. The results were a surprise to economists who were looking for a rise of 0.7%, on average, according to a Briefing.com survey. Sales rose 0.8% in June.

Results would have been worse if not for the government's Cash for Clunkers program, which boosted auto sales. Retail sales excluding autos fell 0.6% in July versus forecasts for a rise of 0.1%. Sales without autos rose a revised 0.5% in June.

The report is worrisome, as consumer spending fuels two-thirds of gross domestic product growth. So far, low prices and government stimulus have helped the economy stabilize, but without a pickup in spending, any recovery will be moderate at best.

In related news, Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said it is boosting production for the rest of the year to meet increased demand as a result of Cash for Clunkers.

Wal-Mart Stores:

The No. 1 retailer reported quarterly earnings Thursday.

On the upside, Wal-Mart earned 88 cents per share versus 87 cents a year ago and more than what analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. Wal-Mart also said that it expects current-quarter earnings in line with analysts' forecasts.

But revenue fell more than expected and the company said customers were cutting back. The Dow component also said that sales at stores open a year or more, also known as same-store sales, fell 1.2% in the quarter.

Nonetheless, investors focused on the positive and shares gained 2.7% Thursday.

Labor market:

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose to 558,000 last week, surprising economists who were expecting jobless claims to drop to 545,000 claims.

However, the Labor Department report also showed that continuing claims, which measures people who have been receiving benefits for a week or more, fell to 6,202,000 from 6,343,000 in the previous week.

The Labor Department said the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for state jobless benefits rose slightly last week, but the small increase is not likely to be viewed as a major setback amid other signs of improved labor market conditions.

Initial claims for jobless benefits rose by 4,000 to 558,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in the week ending Aug. 8, according to the weekly report. The four-week average of new claims, which aims to smooth volatility in the data, rose by 8,500 to 565,000 - the highest since July 18.

The tally of continuing claims - those drawn by workers for more than one week - fell by 141,000 during the week ended August 1 to 6,202,000 - the lowest level since April 11. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had predicted a decrease in initial claims of 5,000.

Housing:

The housing market remains constrained, according to a new report released Thursday.

Foreclosure filings jumped almost 7% in July from the previous month, according to RealtyTrac. Filings rose 32% from a year ago.

Bonds:

Treasury prices gained, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.59% from 3.71% Wednesday.

Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The government is auctioning $75 billion in debt this week as part of its efforts to reduce the deficit and fuel its recovery efforts.

On Thursday, Treasury auctioned $15 billion in 30-year bonds to strong demand.

The first two auctions had mixed results. Tuesday's sale of $37 billion in three-year notes saw stronger demand than other recent auctions. Wednesday's auction of $23 billion in 10-year notes showed demand roughly in line with recent levels.

Oil, Gold & Currencies:

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery rose 36 cents to settle at $70.52 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $4 to settle at $956.50 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.

What to expect:

FRIDAY: CPI; industrial production; consumer sentiment; Earnings from JCPenney.

Friday's data includes the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. and industrial production at 9:15 a.m. Consumer sentiment is at 9:55 a.m. J.C. Penney [JCP  33.34    0.13  (+0.39%)   ] and Abercrombie and Fitch [ANF  32.96    0.88  (+2.74%)   ] report earnings ahead of the opening bell.

Brown Brothers Harriman currency strategist Win Thin said the dollar's action Wednesday and Thursday shows the idea circulating after Friday's jobs report that the dollar could be making a turn has not panned out. "On Friday, everybody got bullish on Fed tightening and now that's worn off. Cooler heads have prevailed," he said.

Among the stocks expected to see active trading Friday are Abercrombie & Fitch Co., American Dairy Inc., China Direct Industry Inc. and J.C. Penney Co.

Abercrombie & Fitch Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!anf/quotes/nls/anf (ANF 33.00, +0.04, +0.12%) is expected to post a second-quarter loss of 7 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

American Dairy Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!ady/quotes/nls/ady (ADY 31.84, -0.14, -0.44%) is forecast to post second-quarter earnings of 7 cents a share.

Brasil Foods /quotes/comstock/13*!pda/quotes/nls/pda (PDA 46.24, -0.03, -0.07%) is expected to post second-quarter earnings of 39 cents a share.

China Direct Industry Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!cdii/quotes/nls/cdii (CDII 1.83, -0.02, -1.09%) is forecast to post a second-quarter loss of 5 cents a share.

Hydrogenics Corp. /quotes/comstock/15*!hygs/quotes/nls/hygs (HYGS 0.52, -0.02, -3.88%) is projected to post a second-quarter loss of 3 cents a share.

J.C. Penny Co. /quotes/comstock/13*!jcp/quotes/nls/jcp (JCP 33.56, +0.22, +0.66%) is expected to post a second-quarter loss of 1 cent a share.

Knightsbridge Tankers Ltd. /quotes/comstock/15*!vlccf/quotes/nls/vlccf (VLCCF 15.73, +0.25, +1.61%) is projected to post second-quarter earnings of 29 cents a share.

Nexxus Lighting Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!nexs/quotes/nls/nexs (NEXS 6.60, +0.10, +1.54%) is forecast to post a second-quarter loss of 13 cents a share.

VanceInfo Technologies Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!vit/quotes/nls/vit (VIT 15.15, -0.08, -0.53%) is expected to post second-quarter earnings of 11 cents a share.

After Thursday's bell, Ticketmaster Entertainment Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!tktm/quotes/nls/tktm (TKTM 9.77, -0.10, -1.01%) said its second-quarter profit fell to $6.9 million, or 12 cents a share, from $23 million, or 41 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Revenue fell to $355.1 million from $382.4 million last year.

Irving Azoff, chief executive officer, said the economic downturn has challenged Ticketmaster's attempts to create new ticketing products.

Watch List

Apple Inc.'s /quotes/comstock/15*!aapl/quotes/nls/aapl (AAPL 168.45, +0.03, +0.02%) board is set to meet Tuesday to discuss possible replacements for Google Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!goog/quotes/nls/goog (GOOG 462.00, -0.28, -0.06%) Chief Executive Eric Schmidt, The Wall Street Journal reported late Thursday on its Web site, citing an unidentified person familiar with the matter. Schmidt stepped down from Apple's board in late July.

Autodesk Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!adsk/quotes/nls/adsk (ADSK 24.28, +0.08, +0.33%) on Thursday reported a second-quarter profit of $10.5 million, or 5 cents a share, compared with a profit of $89.8 million, or 39 cents a share, for the year-earlier period. Revenue was $414.9 million, down from $619.5 million for the same quarter last year.

Blockbuster Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!bbi/quotes/nls/bbi (BBI 0.72, -0.14, -16.28%) said late Thursday that its second-quarter loss narrowed to $39.7 million, or 21 cents a share, from $44.7 million, or 23 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Excluding one-time items, the video chain would have reported a loss of 19 cents a share for the latest period. Revenue fell to $1.02 billion from $1.3 billion last year.

Nordstrom Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!jwn/quotes/nls/jwn (JWN 29.52, -0.24, -0.81%) reported late Thursday second-quarter net income fell to $105 million, or 48 cents a share, from $143 million, or 65 cents, a year ago. Net sales for the three months ended Aug. 1 fell 6% to $2.14 billion as shoppers hit by the recession tightened their purse strings. Same-store sales for the quarter fell 9.8% from a year ago.

Asia:

Asian stocks rose, driving the MSCI Asia Pacific Index to its highest level in more than 10 months, as higher metal prices and anticipation of more takeovers fueled speculation a five-month rally will continue.

Major markets across Asia started the Friday mostly higher, aided by the higher close on Wall Street, but volume is expected to be light due to August vacations.

Japan's Nikkei [JP;N225  10627.63    110.4395  (+1.05%)   ] average rose 0.3 percent on Friday, lifted by exporters such as Kyocera after better-than-expected earnings by Wal-Mart Stores [WMT  51.88    1.37  (+2.71%)   ] helped offset disappointing U.S. data on retail sales and jobs.

The benchmark Nikkei nudged back close to a 10-month high of 10,587.36 hit on Tuesday. The broader Topix was slightly higher.

Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. (8830) shares rose for the seventh straight trading day Friday morning, climbing 85 yen from Thursday at one point to hit a year-to-date high of 2,165 yen.

Shares in Benesse Corp. (9783) traded higher for the fifth straight day Friday morning, rising as much as 80 yen to hit 4,320 yen.

But volume is expected to be low, with many people in Japan taking the day off at the heart of the August holiday period. 

Australian stocks also rose with banks and miners leading the gains amid optimism over economic growth.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index [AU;XJO  4466.7    30.80  (+0.69%)   ] was up, adding to a 2.1 percent rise on Thursday. 

Korea's Kospi [KR;KSPI  1589.69    25.0499  (+1.6%)   ] also gained, with news that North Korea on Thursday released a South Korean worker it had held since late March helping sentiment.

In addition, Singapore's Straits Times index [GB;STI  2621.56    7.38  (+0.28%)   ] opened in the green.

HSI 20728.95 -132.35 -0.63%. (08.49 AM IST)

Chinese stocks open almost flat on Fri

Chinese stocks opened almost flat on Friday morning.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 3,138.15 points, down 0.08% or 2.41 points from the previous closing.

The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.04% or 4.53 points higher at 12,807.44 points.

Ford increases third-quarter production under cash for clunkers program

U.S. automaker Ford Motor Co. announced Thursday that it is boosting third-quarter production in North America by another 10,000 units to meet increased demand for its vehicles.    

China sees stamp duty revenue surge 152.35% in Jul

China's stamp duty revenue on stock trading soared 152.35% year on year to RMB 7.09 billion in July, due to the booming stock market, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Finance yesterday.

Last month, stock trading volume on the Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses soared 53.5% from June to RMB 7.09 trillion, according to statistics released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

In the first seven months of this year, China's stamp duty revenue totaled RMB 29.28 billion, accounting for 0.83% of the country's total tax revenue in the period, which stood at RMB 3.55 trillion.

The surge in stock transaction triggered concern that China may raise the stamp tax on stock trading.

However, analysts have said that the Chinese government are unlikely to raise the tax, since doing so would not be good for a steady stock market.

China bans expansion in iron and steel industry for three years

China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is currently drafting a guide to mergers and acquisitions in the iron and steel industry, and to curb overcapacity will disallow expansion projects in the steel industry for the next three years.

Annual production capacity is currently 660 million tons, while demand is only 470 million tons, indicating a surplus of 190 million tons, said Li Yizhong, minister of MIIT. Furthermore, projects that will add 58 million tons of capacity are under construction.

Li believes that one of the solutions is to eliminate outdated facilities. Doing so would cut annual production of iron by 100 million tons and annual production of steel by 50 million tons.

China's iron and steel industry should accelerate mergers and acquisitions, Li said. Steel mills in Hebei Province will cut their annual overall capacity to 80 million tons from 120 million tons over the next two to three years.

Li also said that the sharply increasing prices of iron ore lead to big losses of Chinese steel enterprises, and China hope the world's major iron ore suppliers will consider long-term cooperation with China's steel industry and handle the price negotiation fairly.

China Mobile to have 80 mln 3G users in 2 years

China Mobile Communications Corp, the parent of China Mobile Ltd<0941><CHL>, aims to attract 80 million TD-SCDMA users in the first two years after launching 3G services, said Li Yizhong, minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, on Thursday, sources reported.

China Mobile is the country's largest telecom operator by user base. The company was authorized to offer 3G services based on the home-grown TD-SCDMA standard. The company aims to expand its 3G services to 238 cities from the current 38 cities by the end of this year.

China Telecom Corp Ltd<0728><CHA>, the nation's largest fixed-line operator, runs 3G services based the U.S.-developed CDMA2000 standard in 342 cities across the country, while China Unicom (Hong Kong) Ltd<600050><0762><CHU>, the country's second largest telecom operator, has launched 3G services based on Europe's WCDMA standard in 100 cities.

Li said he has confidence in the development of the home-grown TD standard despite the fact that the technology is not as mature as other standards.

At the end of June, China Mobile had 959,000 G3 subscribers who used its 3G services.

China Telecom finishes 1st phase 3G network construction

China Telecom<0728><CHA>, the nation's largest fixed-line operator, has finished the first phase construction on its 3G network across the country, almost six months ahead of the original schedule, sources reported.

China Telecom's 3G network will cover all county-level or above cities.

The Shanghai branch of China Telecom hopes to attract a base of 5.5 million mobile users, more than double the current number of 2.13 million, said Shanghai Telecom's General Manager Zhang Weihua.

Wang Yongzhen, the telco's marketing director, said that the firm's 3G network currently covers 2,055 counties or county-level cities over the country, as well as more than 6,000 villages in the eastern coastal region.

China Telecom obtained the 3G license from the country's telecom industry regulator in January this year, along with the other two major Chinese carriers China Mobile<0941><CHL> and China Unicom<600050><0762><CHU>.

China Telecom's CDMA 2000 network, which is 20 times faster than the 2G network, is also the fastest among the three 3G networks in China, sources said.

H shares of China Telecom rose 1.74% to close at HK$4.10 on Thursday.    
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
GOI drought linked freebies
 
 
 
GOI drought linked freebies this weekend could raise consolidated fisc deficit to 15 % for FY10, and will most likely be accompanied by a rise in drought linked taxes, surcharges and borrowings-not good news for an impoverished nation with an over-valued stock market.
 

Analysts watch with some trepidation political moves that the Government in India may announce at this weekend's Independence Day celebrations. The country where atleast 50 per cent of the land mass has received less than previously forecast below normal monsoon rains has all but declared a drought-the first in 13 years.

 

This has led to a shoot up in food prices (CPI already running at 12 per cent) and expected to go up even higher. In the past such geographic upheavals have meant more debt write-offs and freebies to an already pampered category of farmers that pays no income tax, gets free water and power and a Government that is ready to buy whatever is produced at above market prices year on year.

 

The GOI which is expected to declare a consolidated Fiscal Deficit of 10 per cent for FY10 is likely to over-shoot this target with the expected weekend announcement. Some analysts expect the deficit could now go to as high as 15 per cent in FY10, an unsustainable level which should be accompanied by higher corporate taxes and surcharges on personal taxation of the rich.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	13-Aug-2009	2698.97	2068.03	630.94

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 13th Aug 2009

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS

RESISTANCE

4484

4501

4532

4547

4578

SUPPORT

4450

4433

4385

4339

4324

4278

Buy DHAMPUR; EDSERV SOFTSYSTEMS

 

MSCI adds Unitech, Mahindra Satyam to global standard indices

NHPC IPO final book
-Overall 24 times; QIB 29 times; HNI 57 times Retail 3.9 times
-Enam garnered 52% or $11 billion of QIB book

 Jaypee Group & L&T
-Sign contract for super critical equipments
-Rs 4000 crore contract for super thermal project

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Tata Motors, Patni, Bharat Forge, Aban Offshore, Shree Renuka, Jindal Saw, Aurobindo Pharma, Cummins India, Mphasis & GT Offshore.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Chambal Fert, MLL, Divi'S Lab, Suzlon, Colpal, Nagarjun Fertil, IOB, Federal Bank, Union Bank Of India  & HeroHonda.
 Nifty is sideways 
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 4484 level, expect short covering up to 4499-4501 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4530-4532 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4433 & 4450 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4385-4387 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4339-4341 zone by non-stop.

Below 4324-4326 zone, expect panic up to 4278-4280 zone and have caution.

On Positive Side, cross above 4545-4547 zone can take it up to 4576-4578 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop.
Stop Loss Triggered. 3 closes below 4473 level, it can tumble up to 4215 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Profit Booking should start. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.

 

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy DHAMPUR SUGAR MI (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 88 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 92 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 94 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 85 level for your long positions too.

 
Buy EDSERV SOFTSYSTEMS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 82 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 86 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 89 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 79 level for your long positions too.

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	12-Aug-2009	2260.82	2765.81	-504.99

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	12-Aug-2009	1536.57	1345.99	+190.58

 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,361.61. Up by 120.16 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,005.81. Up by 11.46 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,998.72. Up by 28.99 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 48.37/38 per dollar on yesterday, lower than Tuesday's close of 47.97/98.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks rallied Wednesday, buoyed by an improved outlook from the Fed and an encouraging housing report.

"I think [traders] like the rosy outlook from the Fed," said Dan Cook, senior market analyst at IG Markets. "The initial reactionwas to sell off a bit but when the market fully digested the statement, it seemed to like it," Cook added.

Cook says he would still be cautious of today's gains, particularly after the market's recent four-week rally, in which it gained 15 percent.

"There's still some downside to the market that's not priced in," Cook said, citing the shaky jobs front, a big credit restraint on consumers and commercial real estate among the potential speed bumps for the market. "A substantial correction would not be out of line at this point," he said.

On Wednesday at the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 120.16 points, or 1.3%, to 9361.61, the Standard & Poor's 500 rose 11.46 points, or 1.15%, to 1005.81 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 28.99 points, or 1.47%, to 1998.72.

Financials were the biggest gainer, with the S&P financial-sector index up 2 percent, rebounding off a 3.5-percent slide Tuesday.

Good news on the housing front this morning: Existing-home sales rose 3.8 percent to an annual rate of 4.76 million in the second quarter, the National Association of Realtors reported. And the median sales price rose 4 percent to $174,100 in the second quarter from the first, though prices are still down nearly 16 percent from a year ago.

The Federal Reserve said the economy was improving and left interest rates at their lowest level in history. The major indexes jumped early in the session and rallied again after the central bank's statements.

The Fed closed out its two-day policy meeting this afternoon without making any major changes to stimulus programs while saying the economy appears to be stabilizing.

Financials shares led the market Wednesday after the Fed left interest rates low and Merrill Lynch analysts upgraded insurer Allstate ( ALL - news - people ). The Financial Select Sector SPDR, an exchange-traded fund, gained 2% during regular trading.

Allstate was up 6.3%.

Technology shares also helped the session's gains with the Technology SPDR ETF up 2% for the day after chip equipment firm Applied Materials ( AMAT - news - people ) beat analysts estimates Tuesday evening. Applied gained 3.3% for the day.

Toll Brothers [TOL  23.42    2.94  (+14.36%)   ] also delivered some much-needed good news on the housing sector. The homebuilder projected a 42-percent drop in third-quarter revenue but said the number of contracts signed increased for the first time in 16 quarters.

Toll Brothers shares jumped more than 14 percent. Beazer gained more than 9 percent, while Lennar and Pulte advanced 4 percent.

Mortgage applications fell 3.5 percent, however, as rising mortgage rates depressed refinancing demand. And the trade gap widened in June to $27 billion as higher prices on oil imports offset gains in exports.

Today's Treasury auction of $23 billion in 10-year notes was met with mediocre demand. The high yield was 3.734 percent, and the bid-to-cover ratio was 2.49, in line with the recent average of 2.48. This latest round will conclude tomorrow with a 30-year auction.

AIG [AIG  25.33    0.41  (+1.65%)   ] shares rose 1.7 percent after the insurer agreed to sell its Hong Kong consumer finance and India-based IT services units.

Macy's [M  16.40    0.93  (+6.01%)   ] jumped 6 percent after the retailer beat expectations, helped by cost-cutting efforts, but fell short with its full-year outlook.

And Sara Lee [SLE  9.72    -1.08  (-10%)   ], which makes everything from coffee cakes to Jimmy Dean sausages, also topped forecasts. But its shares fell 10 percent as sales fell sharply.

There are signs that the IPO market is returning to normal: Emdeon shares [EM  16.52    1.02  (+6.58%)   ] jumped 6.6 percent on their debut, the 15th of 17 IPOs this year to rise on their first day of trading.

And Starwood Property Trust [STWD  20.00  ---  UNCH  (0)   ] closed at $20, its IPO price. Both Starwood and Emdeon increased the size of their IPOs at pricing to meet demand.

Centex (CTX: 12.54, 0.59, 4.94%) also one of the gainers.

Ford Motor Co. (F: 7.71, -0.1, -1.28%) said it will boost production of its Ford Focus vehicle, including working factories overtime and Saturday shifts, Dow Jones reported.

The U.S. Department of Justice and Swiss bank UBS (UBS: 15.3199, 0.5999, 4.08%) said they have reached an agreement in principle regarding the release of 52,000 accounts tied to wealthy American banking clients. The accounts are part of an IRS tax probe into offshore assets that allegedly American clients hid to avoid paying taxes. The details of the agreement were not released and the settlement is pending court approval.

Microsoft (MSFT: 23.53, 0.4, 1.73%) and Nokia (NOK: 13.21, 0.11, 0.84%) announced a partnership to bring Microsoft Office software onto Nokia mobile devices.

Clothing retailer Liz Claiborne (LIZ: 3.99, -0.029, -0.72%) reported a loss of 48 cents, compared with an 11-cent profit a year ago as revenue plunged by nearly a third $683.8 million. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a loss of 40 cents and revenue of $691 million.

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday gave its most upbeat assessment of the American economy since the financial crisis unfolded, adding its voice to a number of recent reports suggesting that the great recession was ending.

Policymakers at the Fed, after warning about a steep economic decline just a few months ago, said the economy was pulling out of its slump and the central bank was winding down one of the debt-purchase programs it had created to stimulate growth.

"Economic activity is leveling out," the Fed monetary policymaking committee said after its two-day meeting.

"We're no longer at DEFCON 1," Richard Yamarone, economist at Argus Research, said, referring to the defense term for being under siege. "The Fed is pulling in some of its life preservers now that the economy is no longer sinking."

The more upbeat assessment reassured investors that they've been making the right bets and stocks bounded higher, with the Dow Jones industrial average rising 120 points.

But there was still plenty of caution in the Fed's language, and as expected it left official interest rates at record levels of near zero.

As in its previous statement after meeting in late June, the Fed said Wednesday that "economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time." And the central bank expressed concerns about ongoing job losses, lower household wealth, tight credit and sluggish income growth -- all factors constraining consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of U.S. economic activity.

What is more, the Fed gave no indication that it was considering imminent hikes in the key federal funds rate -- the rate banks charge one another for overnight loans. Policymakers voted 10-0 to maintain the rate at zero percent to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December, and reiterated that they would likely keep it there for "an extended period."

"They're nowhere close to thinking about ... raising rates," said Alan Levenson, chief economist at T. Rowe Price Group in Baltimore. Many analysts believe the Fed won't lift rates until next year, and some say not until 2011.

Yet the Fed stated more strongly than before that household spending was stabilizing and that businesses were making progress in aligning inventory with sales. Many companies have pulled back sharply on inventory in recent months, suggesting that they soon will have to ramp up production and orders so they can restock store shelves and warehouses.

With economic conditions improving, the Fed also said Wednesday that in October it would phase out its program to purchase $300 billion of Treasury securities, which the central bank undertook to reduce long-term interest rates and help prop up the economy. The program was announced in March and slated to expire in September.

Some analysts said that the end of the Treasury purchases signaled the beginnings of an eventual withdrawal of liquidity injected by the central bank. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has pushed extraordinary stimulus measures to pump money into the economy to loosen up credit markets and help revive the economy.

"I think it's a vote of confidence in the economy," said Chris Rupkey, economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in New York.

"They're taking their foot off the gas pedal," he said of the winding down of the Treasury purchases.

The Fed did not announce changes in its other programs to buy various debt, including $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities.

U.S. markets weren't able to make much Wednesday of a Federal Reserve statement that showed only a very subtle improvement in policymakers' views of the economic recovery.

While stocks embarked on a slow climb, government bond prices dipped below the session lows hit the previous hour on a disappointing auction of 10-year notes. The dollar initially exploited a tentative upgrade in the statement's language on the economy, with a rally against the euro and yen, but then it fell back.

By 3:15 p.m. in New York, the euro was at $1.4214 from $1.4154, and the dollar also pared gains against the yen, still higher on the day at Y96.23 from Y95.93. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 172 points at 9413.61, and 10-year Treasury note had recovered from a swoon to hit breakeven for a 3.70% yield.

The most striking revision in the Federal Open Markets Committee's latest statement is it now sees "economic activity leveling out." The last one, in June, referred to a slower pace of contraction.

But for the government bond market, the key was the FOMC's decision to delay the expiry of its Treasurys purchase program from

September, to end-October. The extra month allows it to spread out the remaining 15% of the $300 billion it committed to the program when it launched in March, spending less with each market intervention.

The Fed is "buying time" by extending the Treasury purchase program to keep a moderate influence over yields and avoid upsetting the market with a more sudden withdrawal, said James Newman, head of U.S. government and agency trading in New York at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods Inc.

The Fed gave no hints of a timeline for withdrawing the other special lending and purchase programs that have seen financial markets through the last 18 months of crisis, though, reiterating instead that the central bank "is monitoring the size and composition of its balance sheet and will make adjustments to its credit and liquidity programs as warranted."

The Fed surprised no one by leaving its key target rate at the 0%-0.25% range it has held for the past eight months, and repeated that "economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels [in the target] for an extended period."

Bets on a hike are little changed in the futures markets since the statement's release - positions in Fed funds contracts are evenly split on the likelihood of a rise to 0.5% by February next year.

Bucking bad news, oil tracked the stock market Wednesday and closed above $70 a barrel. Data showed a rise in U.S. stockpiles and the International Energy Agency lowered its forecast for demand next year.

The dollar fell against most major currencies on Wednesday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said it would keep interest rates low for an extended period.

The Fed decided to keep its key rate at zero to 0.25 percent at its monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, in line with expectations. The central bank said it "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period".

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity is leveling out, said the Fed in a statement released after the meeting.

The Fed said the U.S. economic activity is likely to remain weak for a time and committed to employ all available tools to promote economic recovery and to preserve price stability. It also decided to gradually slow the pace of buying Treasury securities to "promote a smooth transition in markets."

The euro bought 1.4214 dollars in late New York trading compared with 1.4148 dollars it bought late Tuesday. The pound rose to 1.6511 dollars from 1.6476 dollars.

The dollar fell to 1.0879 Canadian dollars from 1.1015 Canadian dollars, and fell to 1.0772 Swiss francs from 1.0819 Swiss francs. It rose slightly to 96.23 Japanese yen from 96.02 Japanese yen.

Oil& Gold:

Oil prices hovered around $70 per barrel Wednesday afternoon after the Federal Open Market Committee held the benchmark Federal Funds rate between 0% and 0.25% and signaled an eventual end to its program of buying long-term Treasury's to help bolster the economy.

"The announcement was initially bearish for oil," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PFG Best Research in Chicago. 

"The (Federal Open Market Committee) is talking out of both sides of their mouth, sending a signal that quantitative easing is coming to an end but they kept the door open that if conditions change they can go back to it. But in a clear way they are sending a message that the party is over."

Light crude for September delivery closed up 71 cents a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, surprising some analysts who expected crude to drop after an earlier EIA report that inventories rose by 2.5 million barrels over last week. That number was far higher than the expected 1 million barrels. Crude continued to dance around the $70 per barrel mark in after-hours trading.

Flynn said a weak dollar has bolstered crude prices and the government's attempts to prop up the economy have also proved bullish for oil.

"I think what is happening is, oil is torn," he said. The good news is the economy is getting better so we should be using more oil.  The bad news is the economy is getting better, which will lead to a reverse in the stimulus money, which could send oil lower.  I think oil will remain under pressure particularly as the dollar gets stronger.   

The Paris-based International Energy Agency also released its monthly report Wednesday, saying growth in worldwide demand will be lower in 2010 than previously forecast.    

Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM: 69.11, 0.96, 1.41%), Marathon Oil (MRO: 30.54, 0.63, 2.11%) and Total (TOT: 54.9704, 1.5704, 2.94%) were higher on the day.

Gold inched up towards $950 onThursday maintaining the previous day's uptrend after the U.S.Federal Reserve signalled its resolve to keep interest rates near zero, a move seen boosting bullion's status as an inflation hedge.

Bonds:

In Treasury bonds, short-dated notes posted gains while benchmark 10-year notes fell, a steepening of the yield curve that analysts attributed to the Fed's decision to hold down short-term rates into the future. The 10-year note closed at a yield of 3.72%, already down sharply from a two-month high last Friday of 3.89%.

What to expect:

THURSDAY: Retail sales; weekly jobless claims; import/export prices; business inventories; Treasury 30-year auction; Earnings from Wal-Mart, Kohl's and Nordstrom.

FRIDAY: CPI; industrial production; consumer sentiment; Earnings from JCPenney.

The following data is expected on Thursday: ECON

German flash GDP for Q2                        (0600 GMT) -

French preliminary GDP for Q2                  (0645 GMT) -

Swiss combined producer/import prices for July (0715 GMT) -

ECB publishes monthly bulletin                 (0800 GMT) -

Eurozone flash GDP figure for Q2               (0900 GMT) -

U.S. import/export prices for July             (1230 GMT) -

Weekly U.S. jobless claims                     (1230 GMT) -

U.S. retails sales for July                    (1230 GMT) -

U.S. business inventories for June             (1400 GMT) -

Markets will take measure of the American consumer Thursday, when monthly retail sales for July are released and Walmart reports its quarterly earnings.

Retail sales, reported at 8:30 am New York time, will continue to show a consumer under pressure but could be slightly better than last month's number. Economists forecast that July sales will be up 0.8 percent. Excluding autos, it is expected to be up 0.1 percent.

Discounter Walmart reports earnings before the opening bell and is expected to show flat results of 86 cents per share. Other reports of note include weekly jobless claims and import prices, both at 8:30 am and business inventories at 10 am. Other earnings expected Thursday include Dr. Pepper Snapple, Estee Lauder, Kohl's, Urban Outfitters, Autodesk and Nordstrom.

Accounting rule maker FASB holds a board meeting Thursday that is getting a lot of attention for its potential impact on banks. FASB is expected to consider a proposal to have financial instruments carried on balance sheets at fair value. There is no immediate action expected on this proposal, but if it results in modification of the mark-to-market rule it could impact bank earnings.

Stocks Wednesday broke a two-day losing streak, with the Dow up 120 points, or 1.3 percent at 9361. The S&P 500 recovered 11 points, or 1.1 percent, to close at 1005. The financial sector was the best performer, up 2 percent.

The dollar, back in step with the "reflation trade," fell as the stock market moved higher.

Long-term Treasurys were weaker as the government auctioned $23 billion in 10-year notes, and the Fed said it would wind down its purchases of government debt in October. The yield on the 10-year rose to 3.72 percent from Tuesday's 3.67 percent.

On Thursday, the Treasury plans to auction another $15 billion in 30-years.

The Fed, in its post-FOMC statement Wednesday, also said the economy is leveling out and said it would keep its Fed funds rate near zero, as expected.

Traders were encouraged by late afternoon news that hedge fund manager John Paulson was loading up on bank stocks in the second quarter. In an SEC filing, Paulson & Co reported that it held 168 million Bank of America [BA  46.34    0.95  (+2.09%)   ] shares as of June 30.

CNBC's Charles Gasparino was first to report the Paulson holdings.

Paulson's investments are closely watched since he predicted the collapse of the mortgage market and melt down in bank stocks. Paulson alsoreported holding 35 million shares of Regions Financial and 2 million shares of Goldman Sachs, among others.

Asia:

Japan's stock market rose slightly on Thursday, lifted by exporters such as Honda Motor after the Federal Reserve suggested the U.S. economy is  through the worst of the recession.

The benchmark Nikkei [JP;N225  10511.14    76.1397  (+0.73%)   ] slipped 1.4 percent the previous day after rising to a 10-month high of 10,587.36 on Tuesday.

Toyota Motor Corp. (7203) shares rose for the first time in three trading days Thursday morning on news that it plans to introduce a new low-price hybrid as early as 2011.

Shares in Astellas Pharma Inc. (4503) ended their two-day retreat Thursday, rising as much as 60 yen to 3,630 yen, despite a brief dip earlier that morning.

Namura Shipbuilding Co. (7014) shares opened bid-only Thursday morning, before trading limit-up at 660 yen, 100 yen above Wednesday's close.

The broader Topix gained 0.8 percent.

Kawasaki Heavy Industries and other companies involved in making trains gained after the chief of state-owned Vietnam Railways told  the Nikkei business daily that Vietnam will use Japan's bullet train technology in building its high-speed railway system connecting Hanoi and the southern commercial hub of Ho Chi Minh City.

Mazda Motor rose after the Nikkei business daily said the company could raise its domestic production outlook for April-September by about 10 percent as stimulus programs in Japan and abroad boost demand.

Mazda outperformed the transport subindex, which rose 1.2 percent.

Australian shares were also higher in early trade, bolstered by banks, though top miner BHP Billiton and Telstra slipped  after their results.

The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index [AU;XJO  4400.6    57.50  (+1.32%)   ] was up, as was New Zealand's benchmark NZX 50 index.

But in Asia, investors were also a little cautious on how Chinese stock markets may fare Thursday. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 4.7% Wednesday to a one-month low amid concerns China was already curbing bank lending, though Beijing has recently repeated its intention to keep its monetary policy loose and supportive.

First NZ Capital strategist Chris Green said: "Given that China's a key motivator of why people are more confident about an economic upturn, if there is any question about that, that will have a negative impact. That is the major risk to the global growth story."

The Tokyo stock market was lifted by short covering, and as auto stocks bounced after declining Wednesday. Toyota Motor was up 1.2% and Honda gained 1.6%.

Steel and brokerage stocks were also stronger but "there are not enough buying cues for players to buy beyond short-covering," said Yumi Nishimura, a market analyst at Daiwa Securities SMBC. With no domestic trading cues, "once short-covering runs its course, the market will just wait for more U.S. economic indicators."

Commonwealth Bank of Australia was the biggest contributor to the market's strength in Sydney as the stock rose 2.6% courtesy of broker upgrades after the bank's healthy results Wednesday. BHP was down 0.6% on concerns over high valuations.

Telstra was 2.5% lower, even though it reported full year profits rose 10.3%, beating expectations. The quality of the results was slightly weaker than expected, said Macquarie, with growth driven by cost cutting, offsetting disappointing sales revenue growth of 2.9% compared with the 3.4% Macquarie expected.

In New Zealand, First NZ Capital broker James Lee said the FOMC's comments, "which didn't really change the world," were not responsible for the local market gains, as investors chased cyclical stocks, building materials, airline and manufacturers. "The rally we've seen in markets is well beyond the worst being over - the market is now pricing recovery."

Fletcher Building was up 2.9% while Air New Zealand rose 4.1%, Nuplex Industries gained 4.7% and Fisher & Paykel Appliances was up 3.7%.

Korean stocks were lifted by banks and auto stocks, and as foreigners were net buyers. Shinhan Financial rose 3.1% while Kia Motors added 1.9%.

Ssangyong Motor was up by its daily limit of 15% as its creditor Korea Development Bank said it would provide KRW130 billion to help Ssangyong normalize its operations.

Foreign exchange markets were quiet as the FOMC "took a very balanced approach" in its statement, said Hideaki Inoue, a senior dealer at Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and Banking.

He said if global stocks gained more in coming weeks, that could push yen-crosses up, "and in that case, the dollar/yen could go into a 97 to 98 range." The euro in turn was likely "to be sensitive to moves in Chinese share markets, which have become a key focus recently."

The U.S. dollar was at Y96.05 from Y96.19 in late New York trade. The euro was at $1.4214, from $1.4196 and at Y136.53, from Y136.63.

Japanese government bonds were higher, but gains were limited by the rise in Tokyo shares. The lead September futures contract was up 0.01 at 137.51 points and the two-year cash yield was 0.5 basis point lower at 0.26%.

JGBs were supported as investors relieved the week's major events were done, RBS Securities strategist RuiXue Xu said. "This may help make domestic investors feel comfortable to return to the market."

Spot gold was at $949.20 per troy ounce, up $2.00 from the New York close. Barclays Capital said gold was trending higher, but remained in the middle of a large range. "In the bigger picture, we regard the contracting range of the past six months as constructive for an eventual move through $981 toward the $1,033 peak and beyond, to new all-time highs."

Base metals were still largely flat with the LME three-month copper contract steady from the London kerb at $6,190 per ton and aluminum at $1,979 per ton, down $6.

The September Nymex crude futures contract was up 56 cents at $70.72 per barrel on Globex

HSI 20815.57 +380.33 +1.86%. (08.37 AM IST).

Hong Kong shares rebounded Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve said economic activity was leveling out and promised to keep interest rates exceptionally low. But Shanghai shares extended their decline on fears bank lending would slow. The Shanghai Composite dropped 1.1% to 3,079.86 on top of its 4.7% slump the day before, with banks and metal producers falling further. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 2% to 20,847.09 on gains across the board, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index added 1.8%.

'The World Is in Trouble': Deutsche Bank Chief Economist

The global economy still faces turmoil as government try to figure out how to move out of fiscal rescue packages, which could lead to another two downturns, Deutsche Bank Chief Economist Norbert Walter said Thursday.

In addition, nervousness on the part of major dollar holders could pressure the greenback and lead to a very worrying 2010, Walter said.

Norbert said recently in research notes "the world is in trouble."

"I believe that the rescue packages brought on have been so costly for so many governments that the exit from this fiscal policy will bevery painful, very painful indeed," he said. "Some of us are already talking about a W-shaped recovery. I'd probably talk about a triple-U-shaped recovery because there are so many stumbling blocks here to get out of this."

"There are a few countries that have not dismissed people, they had a dramatic drop in their sales but they kept on people because they believed the recession would be very shallow," Walter said. "They now have to fire people. That will increase unemployment and they therefore, of course, may be endangering retail sales in some countries."

If Australia hikes rates in September or October, markets "will certainly shiver" and cause zig-zagging at the bottom of the recession, Walter said.

And while the White House struggles with issues like health care and puts a fiscal policy exit strategy on the back burner, there are big concerns of about the direction of the U.S. dollar.

"I'm deeply worried about the worries of those investors who have invested a lot, really a lot into the dollar" like the Chinese, Japanese, Arabs and Russians, he said.

"If they have second thoughts about the quality of this currency then the dollar is bound to weaken" which means higher long-term interest rates for a country where government debt is approaching 100 percent of gross domestic product, he said.

If that happens, "2010 could be a worrisome year for all of us," he said.

Chinese bank eyes top insurer for growth

Bank of Communications (BOCOM), China's fourth-largest lender by market value, may launch its own insurance unit as early as this year as part of its efforts to become a financial conglomerate in the long run, said Thursday's China Daily.

The bank plans to buy a stake in China Life-CMG Life Insurance Co, an insurer now 51-percent owned by China Life Insurance, said Dicky Yip, vice-president of the bank. He declined to reveal details of the deal.

The move echoed earlier market rumors that a slew of major Chinese lenders, including China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, are eyeing stake buys in the nation's insurers in a bid to diversify their financial services portfolios.

In a high-profile deal in early June, Ping An Insurance (Group) announced it was buying a controlling stake in Shenzhen Development Bank (SDB), initiating its ambitious goal to become a comprehensive financial supermarket offering a wide range of services under one roof.

The tie-up is still awaiting regulatory approval, which could take several more months, adding to concerns for other Chinese financial firms that seek to undertake such cross-sector acquisitions, analysts said.

China drafts regulation on monopoly price

China's top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, unveiled Wednesday a draft regulation on monopoly prices.

The regulation applies to cases of monopoly prices both inside and outside the country, when monopoly prices outside the country impact the domestic market, according to the regulation posted on the commission's Web site.

Other than deals reached among more than two parties for the purpose of monopolizing prices, power abuse of government agencies to eliminate or limit competition is also regarded as violation of the regulation.

Those who violate the regulation would be punished according to stipulations in the country's anti-monopoly law, according to the commission.

Individual retailers or producers may face confiscation of illegal earnings and a fine of up to 10 percent of last year's sales, while industry associations are subject to a fine of no more than 500,000 yuan (73,529.4 U.S. dollars) or could be dismissed as an association.

Government agencies that violate the regulation would be ordered by their superiors to orrect their actions, and officials held responsible would be disciplined according to relevant laws.

The commission said the regulation was aimed to prevent monopoly prices and to endorse fair competition so as to safeguard the interests of consumers and the public.

The commission is soliciting public opinion for the regulation until Sept. 6.

China's fiscal revenue up 10.2% in Jul

China's fiscal revenue grew 10.2% year on year to RMB 669.59 billion in July, said the Ministry of Finance in a statement published on its website.

The central government's revenue increased 12.1% from a year earlier to RMB 375.24 billion in July, while local government revenues rose 8% to RMB 294.35 billion, according to the statement.

In the first seven months, the nation's fiscal revenue totaled RMB 4.07 trillion, slightly down 0.5% from the same period of last year.

Fiscal revenue has been on the rebound since May when it grew 4.8% year on year. There was a 19.6% increase in June. In the first four month of this year, the figure declined 9.9% on a yearly basis.

In the first seven months, there was a 3.5% year-on-year decline in domestic value added tax, a 69.8% surge in domestic consumption tax, an 8.2% growth in sales tax, an 8.9% decline in corporate income tax, a 29.3% decrease in customs duties and a 69.2% plunge in stock trading stamp tax.

China's fiscal expenditure was RMB 498.57 billion in July, up 9.3% year on year. The figure brought the total fiscal expenditure in the first seven months to RMB 3.39 trillion, up 23.5% from a year earlier.

SingTel Posts First Profit Increase in Five Quarters

Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., Southeast Asia's largest phone company, posted its first profit gain in five quarters, helped by higher earnings from India.

Net income rose 7.7 percent to S$945.4 million ($654 million), or 5.92 Singapore cents a share, in the three months ended June 30 from S$878.1 million, or 5.5 cents, a year earlier, the company said in a statement today. Profit from wireless units overseas, including India and Indonesia, gained 16 percent, generating more than half of SingTel's earnings.

Bharti Airtel Ltd., India's biggest phone company, accounted for 24 percent of SingTel's income and was the biggest profit contributor from overseas. SingTel is counting on Bharti, which is negotiating a merger with South Africa's MTN Group Ltd., to tap countries with higher growth potential as markets including Singapore and Philippines become saturated.

"The current operating environment remains a challenge," Chief Executive Officer Chua Sock Koong said in the statement. "We will also explore and monitor investment opportunities and will be disciplined when reviewing these opportunities."

SingTel fell 1.6 percent to S$3.18 in Singapore trading yesterday. First-quarter net income was in line with the S$943.5 million median of four analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. Sales rose 1.9 percent to S$3.85 billion.

    
 

INVESTMENT VIEW
Is Bombay Dyeing Over-Valued? Well, there are no financials at all.
 
Bombay Dyeing-Look At The Q1 2010 Numbers

Revenues Q1 Rs crore Rs 349 (Rs 330)

Loss Rs 19 crore (Rs 48 crore)

Equity Rs 38.6 (Rs 38.6)

 

-The above numbers have been achieved after booking a profit of Rs 60 crore on transfer of company's interest in freehold property to a wholly owned subsidiary-a case of fictitious accounting.

 

-Bombay Dyeing has also not made any provision for loss of Rs 22 crore on account of Forex Hedges it has taken in the past.

 

-Surprisingly investment in Real Estate is as big a business for Bombay Dyeing with investment at Rs 745 crore, those in Polyester and Textiles business is roughly Rs 1400 crore.

 

-Is Bombay Dyeing now a Real Estate entity? Will Real Estate operations sustain over a length of time is difficult to say, but it is obvious that the Textile operations are losing money hand over fist.

 

-So is this stock carrying a fictitious or a totally speculative bubble value?
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 12th Aug 2009

 spot levels today

	4471.35	( 0.76 %)	33.70
		1	2	3
Resistance		4521.80	4572.25	4633.70
Support		4409.90	4348.45	4298.00

	15074.59		( 0.43 %)	64.82
			1	2	3
Resistance			15240.75	15406.91	15595.17
Support			14886.33	14698.07	14531.91

INTRADAY calls for 12th Aug 2009

Positional
Buy FCSsoft-51 @ 48 for a target 60-65 stop loss 45
Buy GVKPIL-46 @ 44 for a target 50-55 stop loss 41
Buy Orbitcorp-192 @above 197 for a target 207 stop loss 192

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bharat Forge,Patni,Cummins India,Shree Renuka,Tata Motors,FSL,HCL Tech,Mphasis,Jindal Saw & GT OFFshore.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Suzlon,Chambal Fert,Divi'S Lab,Indn Hotels,Nagarjun Fertil,Patel Engineering,Hero Honda.Pantaloon Retail ,Educomp & MLL
Nifty is sideways
 

RIL-NTPC gas dispute: from agencies
-RIL files caveat in SC ahead of NTPC appeal
-NTPC expected to move SC against Bombay HC ruling in July
-Bombay HC allowed RIL to amend plea in gas dispute with NTPC

Mint Exclusive
-NTPC, NHPC, PGCIL and PFC to sell entire stake in PTC
-4 PSU promoters together hold 16.32% stake in PTC
-Move prompted as PTC competes in utilities space
-Final decision on stake sale requires cabinet approval

 

UCO Bank - Exclusive: Sources Say
-UCO Bank's General Insurance Venture to consist of banks' consortium
-3-4 mid-sized domestic banks to hold 74% stake in venture
-Foreign partner to hold 26% in UCO Bank's General Insurance Venture

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 4447 level, expect profit booking up to 4401-4403 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4357-4359 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4474 level. Above this level, buying may continue up to 4481-4483 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4496 level by non-stop.

Multiple Resistance Zones at 4525-4527 zone & at 4540-4542 zone. Sell at around these zones. Stop Loss at 4583-4585 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4342-4344 zone can create panic up to 4298-4300 zone. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop.
Stop Loss Triggered. 3 closes below 4473 level, it can tumble up to 4215 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Lower opening expected. Profit Booking should start. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.

 

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy NDTV LTD (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 172 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 187 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 197 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 162 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy CUMMINS (I) (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 312 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 329 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 339 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 302 level for your long positions too.

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	11-Aug-2009	2191.36	2368.83	-177.47

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	11-Aug-2009	1451.61	822.74	+628.87

 Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,241.45. Down by 96.50 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 994.35. Down by 12.75 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,969.73. Down by 22.51 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 47.97/98 per dollar on yesterday, below its previous close of 47.82/83.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks slumped Tuesday, with a pummeling in bank shares and jitters ahead of a Federal Reserve announcement giving investors a reason to retreat.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 96.5 points, or 1.03 per cent, to 9241.45.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite points fell 22.51 points, or 1.13 per cent, to 1969.73 and the broad-market Standard & Poor's 500 index retreated 12.75 points, or 1.27 per cent, to 994.35.

"I think there's some apprehension ahead of the Fed," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We know they're going to leave rates alone, but there's some question about what they'll say."

The banking sector retreated after CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) delayed its quarterly filing, reviving bankruptcy fears, and several analysts sounded an alarm on the sector. Influential analyst Richard X. Bove of Rochdale Securities said that bank stocks are trading on "fumes" and that investors should take some short-term profits. JPMorgan Chase downgraded bond insurer MBIA (MBI), according to published reports.

After opening with narrow losses, stocks moved swiftly lower in New York Tuesday thanks to a reading that showed wholesale inventories dropped more than expected.

The Commerce Department's June reading showed businesses reduced inventories at the wholesale level by 1.7%, a deeper cut than analysts expected.

A 0.4% rise in sales marked the first back-to-back increase this year, but it couldn't lift the sagging market.

Another bright spot came in the second-quarter productivity reading from the Labor Department, which jumped 6.4%, but even that figure came with red flags. Employers aggressively cut hours, reining in labor costs, which helped boost productivity and pretty up second-quarter earning reports. The strategy is an effective one in the midst of recession, but not a sustainable solution for long-term bottom line growth, and Tuesday's data further depressed any lingering hope for a better employment picture before the year is out.

The NFIB said its small business confidence index fell in July for the second straight month, dropping 1.3 points to 86.5. Dunkelberg said the number is consistent with negative growth in gross domestic product, depsite the predictions of many economists who see GDP turning positive this year.

Amid Tuesday's losses, Wall Street also had an eye on the Federal Reserve, which opened a two-day monetary policy meeting. Traders are anxious to see if the central bank will embrace signals that the economy is in recovery and hint at possible rate hikes early next year.

Ahead of the Fed meeting, the Commerce Department releases the June trade gap. The trade gap is expected to have widened to $28.5 billion from $26 billion in May, a 10-year low.

Stock declines were broad based, with 26 of 30 Dow issues falling.

Stocks continued to slide Tuesday as bank stocks dragged on the broader market following a weak prognosis from a well-known banking analyst.

Financial stocks, which have gained 25 percent in the past month, skidded after Rochdale Securities analyst Dick Bove recommended taking short-term

profits in the sector, saying bank stocks were running on "fumes" and not reality in their recent run-up. He said bank earnings won't improve in the third or even the fourth quarter. Still, he says the sector is attractive long-term.

Citigroup [C  3.69    -0.25  (-6.35%)   ] and Wells Fargo both dropped more than 6 percent.

Citigroup ( C - news - people ) published its second-quarter TARP progress report, announcing it approved $6 billion in new initiatives to extend credit to consumers and businesses during the period. At the close of the quarter, Citi had put $15.1 billion to work, out of the $50.8 billion in TARP capital it allocated to such programs. Shares of Citi were down 27 cents, or 6.9%, to $3.67.

AIG shares [AIG  24.92    -3.78  (-13.17%)   ] fell another 13 percent and Bank of America [BAC  15.85    -0.83  (-4.98%)   ] lost 5 percent following a story in the Wall Street Journal today about the SEC's plan to ramp up its enforcement actions to convey a "sense of urgency."

Piling on to the pressure on the banking sector, Miller Tabak cut its price targets on Zions Bancorp [ZION  16.428    -1.502  (-8.38%)   ] and Regions Financial [RF  4.76    -0.21  (-4.23%)   ]. Those stocks shed 8.4 percent and 4.2 percent, respectively.

CIT Group shares [CIT  1.20    -0.28  (-18.92%)   ] tumbled 19 percent after the company said it would file for bankruptcy protection if it failed to complete its debt tender or arrange other financing.

CIT Group ( CIT - news - people ) has delayed a second-quarter filing to its regulators, as it works on a tender offer to bondholders designed to stave off bankruptcy. The lender already received a $3 billion emergency loan from a group of debt holders, and said it is reviewing assets that it may be able to sell.

Shares of Freddie Mac [FRE  1.56    -0.13  (-7.69%)   ], the battered government-sponsored mortgage agency, skidded 7.7 percent a day after the company reported its first quarterly profit in two years. Shares of its sister agency, Fannie Mae [FNM  1.07    0.07  (+7%)   ], jumped 7 percent.

At the same time, regional banks like Huntington Bancshares (HBAN: 4.45, -0.32, -6.71%) tumbled after Miller Tabak cut its price targets on Zions Bancorp (ZION: 16.48, -1.45, -8.09%) and Regions Financial (RF: 4.79, -0.2, -4.01%).

The market was also buzzing about an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal today about Ginnie Mae, the Government National Mortgage Association, and the fact that much of its lending is essentially subprime.

Target shares [TGT  42.20    0.22  (+0.52%)   ] rose 0.5 percent after activist hedge-fund manager William Ackman converted most of his options in the retailer into common stock to become more of a long-term investor.

Several other retail stocks also rose, including Wal-Mart, Macy's and Gap.

More moving-and-shaking news out of the auto sector: General Motors executives said the all-electric Chevrolet Volt — expected to hit showrooms late in 2010 — will get 230 miles per gallon.

Dow financial issues American Express (AXP, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500) and Travelers Companies (TRV, Fortune 500) all declined. The KBW Bank (BKX) index lost 4.4%.

Among other financial sector movers, CIT Group (CIT, Fortune 500) slumped after saying it will delay filing its quarterly report as it continues to try to restructure its debt and avoid filing for bankruptcy protection.

IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Cisco Systems (CSCO, Fortune 500), Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Walt Disney (DIS, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500) were the Dow's other big decliners.

In corporate news, hedge fund Pershing Square Capital revealed it cut its stake in retailer Target ( TGT - news - people ) nearly in half. Pershing, run by William Ackman, disclosed a 4.4% holding in the discount retailer, down from 7.8% as of May 26. Ackman has pushed for a series of changes at Target, which gained 45 cents, or 1.1%, to $42.43 Tuesday.

General Motors ( GMGMQ.PK - news - people ) made a splash Tuesday, estimating that its forthcoming electric-powered Chevy Volt could get up to 230 miles to the gallon in city driving. The automaker's Chief Executive Fritz Henderson also said GM is on track to report positive cash flow in 2010 and return to profitability in 2011.

Applied Materials (AMAT, Fortune 500) is likely to be active Wednesday. After the close Tuesday, the chipmaker reported a quarterly loss versus a profit a year ago on weaker revenue. However, the results were better than what analysts were expecting and shares gained 3% in extended-hours trading.

Corning (GLW: 16, -0.37, -2.26%) said the 6.4-magnitude earthquake that struck central Japan on Monday disrupted production at a Japanese factory, forcing the company to cut its production outlook for LCD screens. The glass maker said it now sees third-quarter volume falling 5% to 10% from a year ago.

Tellabs (TLAB: 6.15, 0.25, 4.24%) jumped to a 52-week high after the company announced plans to buy back up to $200 million of its stock. Tellabs, which has no debt, said late Monday it will use some of its $1.2 billion in cash and equivalents for the program, starting as early as Aug 13.

The gold market is watching the U.S. dollar as the Federal Open Market Committee meets, because any hints on interest rate hikes or announcement on the Federal Reserve's Treasury-buying program could bolster the greenback and weaken the metal's price.

The two-day FOMC meeting began Tuesday, with an interest-rate decision expected around 2:15 p.m. EDT (1815 GMT) Wednesday.

Few anticipate the Fed will move interest rates in the short term, said Adam Klopfenstein, senior market strategist at Lind-Waldock, a division of MF Global.

Nevertheless, he said, a shift is afoot in dollar buying, with participants moving from buying the dollar as a safe haven to buying the currency in anticipation of interest rate hikes over the next few years.

"Any talk about higher rates is going to support the dollar," said Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading. "We all know rates are going up. It's a question of when and how fast."

Lesh thinks it will be next year before interest rates start rising.

Fed decisions are key for the dollar, and consequently for gold, because the metal acts as an inflation and currency hedge, meaning it is often bought in times of dollar weakness and sold in times of dollar strength. A stronger greenback also tends to pressure dollar-denominated commodities, such as gold, by making them more expensive in other currencies, damping demand.

Another possible support for the dollar may come if the Fed announces it won't renew its Treasury-buying program.

That could be dollar supportive because those Treasury purchases are viewed by some as inflationary, and it might be taken as a sign of economic improvement if the buying is seen as no longer needed, Lesh said.

"I think they're going to let this program end in September," Lesh said, but he emphasized that doesn't mean the Fed will necessarily make that announcement Wednesday.

Klopfenstein said the dollar may even head lower in the short term if the Fed statement doesn't contain what participants are expecting.

If the FOMC announces that it won't extend the Treasury-buying program, that would be positive for the dollar, a Barclays Capital research note said.

Barclays expects gold's gains to be capped by a falling euro against the dollar.

"Prices continue to take their cue from currency movements and external markets," Barclays said.

Treasury prices were higher, even as the government prepares to issue $75 billion worth of new debt this week. The latest round of bond auctions starts with Tuesday's $37 billion offering of three-year notes. The benchmark ten-year note had a yield of 3.70%, down from 3.80% Monday.

Economy:

U.S. productivity in the second quarter jumped at the fastest pace in six years, the government said Tuesday. Productivity -- which measures how much workers produce per hour worked -- rose 6.4% versus forecasts for a rise of 5.5%. Productivity rose 0.3% in the first quarter.

Oil and gold:

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell $1.15 to settle at $69.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose 70 cents to settle at $947.60 an ounce.

Bonds:

Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.67% from 3.77% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

The government is offering $75 billion this week as part of its ongoing efforts to reduce the deficit and fuel its recovery efforts.

Investors reacted mildly to the conclusion of the first auction Tuesday. Treasury sold $37 billion in three-year notes and saw stronger demand than in other recent auctions.

On Wednesday, the government auction $23 billion in 10-year notes and on Friday it auctions $15 billion in 30-year bonds.

Treasury prices rose Tuesday as investors anxious about the Federal Reserve's assessment of the economy took shelter in government debt.

The government's auction of $37 billion in three-year notes went well, allowing Treasurys to hold their gains. But investors, who were pulling money

out of the stock market and stashing it in government securities, were more focused on what the Fed will say about the economy when it ends a two-day meeting Wednesday.

It's a foregone conclusion that the central bank will hold the federal funds rate at its current level near zero. The question is whether Chairman Ben Bernanke and other Fed officials will be more upbeat about the economy in the statement that accompanies the rate decision — especially after the unemployment rate fell unexpectedly last month to 9.4 percent from 9.5 percent in June.

Stocks fell for a second straight day Tuesday, putting a slight dent in a four-week rally that lifted the Standard & Poor's 500 index 15 percent. As jitters over the Fed meeting sent stocks lower, investors saw a good opportunity in the relative safety of the Treasury market.

In late trading, the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose 26/32 to 95 17/32, pushing its yield down to 3.67 percent from 3.78 percent late Monday.

A lower yield is good news for consumers because it is tied to rates on mortgages and other loans.

"People are taking advantage of these yield levels to put some money to work," said Carl Lantz, a fixed income strategist at Credit Suisse.

The rise in Treasury prices added to Monday's gains, which came after big losses on Friday in reaction to the unexpected dip in the unemployment rate.

The Treasury's three-year note auction was a success. The auction's bid-to-cover ratio, a measure of demand, was 2.90 percent, compared with 2.62 percent at a similar auction last month and above a recent average of 2.58 percent.

Indirect bids, an indication of foreign buying, hit an all-time high, Lantz said.

"All the statistics look good," he said. "A good auction all around."

The government is selling massive amounts of debt this year to help pay for its bailout of the financial system and jump-start the economy. Investors have been worried that demand would abate amid the surplus, but so far most auctions have been going well. If demand were to consistently fall short, the government would have to raise the interest it pays, which would drive up borrowing costs and potentially hinder the economy's recovery.

In total, the Treasury Department is issuing $75 billion of debt this week. On Wednesday, the government will auction $23 billion in 10-year notes followed by $15 billion in 30-year bonds on Thursday.

The three-year note rose 6/32 to 99 12/32, while its yield fell to 1.72 percent from 1.78 percent.

In other trading, the 30-year bond rose 1 14/32 to 96 27/32, and its yield fell to 4.44 percent from 4.53 percent.

The two-year note rose 4/32 to 99 21/32 and its yield fell to 1.18 percent from 1.25 percent.

The yield on the three-month T-bill was unchanged at 0.17 percent. Its discount rate was 0.18 percent.

The cost of borrowing between banks fell. The British Bankers' Association said the rate on three-month loans in dollars — the London Interbank Offered Rate, or Libor — slipped to 0.45 percent from 0.46 percent.

What to expect:

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; international trade; weekly crude inventories; Treasury 10-year auction; Fed announcement; Earnings from Macy's.

THURSDAY: Retail sales; weekly jobless claims; import/export prices; business inventories; Treasury 30-year auction; Earnings from Wal-Mart, Kohl's and Nordstrom.

FRIDAY: CPI; industrial production; consumer sentiment; Earnings from JCPenney.

Among the stocks expected to see active trading Wednesday are LDK Solar Co. Ltd., Liz Claiborne Inc., Macy's Inc. and Sara Lee Corp.

LDK Solar Co. Ltd. /quotes/comstock/13*!ldk/quotes/nls/ldk (LDK 11.22, +0.18, +1.63%) is expected to post a second-quarter loss of 91 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters.

Liz Claiborne Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!liz/quotes/nls/liz (LIZ 4.02, +0.01, +0.25%) is projected to post a second-quarter loss of 40 cents a share.

Macy's Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!m/quotes/nls/m (M 15.44, -0.03, -0.19%) is forecast to post second-quarter earnings of 14 cents a share.

Netease.com Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!ntes/quotes/nls/ntes (NTES 45.30, +0.29, +0.64%) is expected to post second-quarter earnings of 45 cents a share.

Sara Lee Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!sle/quotes/nls/sle (SLE 10.85, +0.05, +0.46%) is projected to post fiscal fourth quarter earnings of 24 cents a share.

The Progressive Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!pgr/quotes/nls/pgr (PGR 15.80, -0.37, -2.29%) is forecast to post second-quarter earnings of 36 cents a share.

U.S. Home Systems /quotes/comstock/15*!ushs/quotes/nls/ushs (USHS 2.97, +0.25, +9.19%) is expected to post a second-quarter loss of 10 cents a share.

After Tuesday's bell, NYSE Euronext's NYSE Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!nyx/quotes/nls/nyx (NYX 28.47, -0.22, -0.77%) said short interest on the New York Stock Exchange fell in the second half of July from the first half, to the lowest level since late February. Short interest fell to 14.03 billion shares from 15.64 billion shares. Short interest on July 31 was equal to 3.67% of total shares outstanding.

Watch List

Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/15*!ndaq/quotes/nls/ndaq (NDAQ 21.89, -0.01, -0.05%) said Tuesday that short interest declined over the most recent period. The exchange had short interest in 6.78 billion shares in 2,903 securities at the end of July 31, compared with 7.14 billion shares in 2,883 securities as of July 15.

Warnaco Group Inc. /quotes/comstock/13*!wrc/quotes/nls/wrc (WRC 37.30, -1.01, -2.64%) said late Tuesday that its second-quarter profit fell to $17.8 million, or 38 cents a share, from $19.4 million, or 41 cents a share, in the year-ago period.

Asia:

Stock markets in Asia were slightly lower in morning trading Wednesday, with a selloff in the US weighing on trading and investors somewhat cautious ahead of a Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Japan's Nikkei [JP;N225  10502.96    -82.50  (-0.78%)   ] average pulled back from 10-month highs on Wednesday, as concerns over a U.S. economic recovery grew after an unexpectedly large drop in  wholesale inventories and negative comments about the banking  sector from a prominent analyst.

Analysts said investors were locking in profits ahead of the end of the Federal Reserve board meeting and issuance of its policy statement, with attention on whether it unwinds some of the quantitative easing policies currently in place.

Exporters such as Canon fell but Sapporo gained on a report it will buy 20 percent stake  in drinks maker Pokka Corporation as part of a three-way tie-up  with Meiji Holdings.

"There's some concern that the Nikkei has been overbought,  and that put together with inability to read what the Fed might  do is leading to profit-taking," said Takashi Ushio, head of the  investment strategy division at Marusan Securities.

"I wouldn't go so far yet as to call what's happening now an  adjustment, but for the Nikkei to rise past 11,000 we need to see  proof of quite a sharp recovery in earnings," said Ushio.

Japanese wholesale prices fell a record 8.5 percent in July from a year earlier, highlighting growing deflationary pressure in the economy and limiting the Bank of Japan's scope for ending its unorthodox policy measures, but analysts said there was little impact from this on the Nikkei.

Tokyo stocks fell Wednesday morning on renewed jitters over the U.S. economic recovery path, with Japanese exporters weighed down by a stronger yen and financial shares tracking their U.S. peers' decline.

IT Holdings Corp. (3626) shares opened ask-only Wednesday morning, as the company on Tuesday evening downgraded its earnings outlook for the current year through March 2010.

JGC Corp. (1963) shares bounced back Wednesday after a down day on Tuesday, at one point up 76 yen at a year-to-date high of 1,729 yen.

Australian stocks recovered early losses to stand flat after Commonwealth Bank of Australia reversed course as investors took an optimistic view of its earnings results and outlook. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200 [AU;XJO  4328.2    -3.80  (-0.09%)   ] was up slightly.

It earlier posted a 2.3 percent rise in second-half profit, above analyst expectations, although it gave a cautious outlook.

"It's quite a promising result and it's quite promising for the rest of the financial sector," said James Foulsham, head of  trading at CMC Markets.

In Korea, the Kospi [KR;KSPI  1556.33    -22.88  (-1.45%)   ] slid on US weakness, with KB Financial among the big losers.

Singapore Slides, Hong Kong Starts Down

Singapore's Straits Time Index [GB;STI  2576.25    -21.05  (-0.81%)   ] was also down. Shares of Ascendas Real Estate Investment Trust fell sharply after the firm announced that it had made a private placement of 185 million new units at S$1.63 each, analysts said.

The price was at the bottom of the indicative range of S$1.63 and S$1.70, and well below the firm's pre-suspension price of S$1.76.

"People are taking it as a 'sell' signal that the company needs to raise cash as it's not the first time they're dipping into the market," said a trader from a local brokerage.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index [HK;HSI  20623.04    -451.1719  (-2.14%)   ] started down 2 percent.

HSI 20561 -513.21 -2.44%. (08.32 AM IST).

Hong Kong stocks fell Wednesday from their highest level in nearly a year, as investors locked in profits after recent strong gains in market heavyweights HSBC Holdings Plc. and China Mobile Ltd., as well as Chinese banks. The Hang Seng Index dropped 2% to 20,655.77 in early trade, after ending above 21,000 Tuesday. The Hang Seng China Enteprises Index lost 2% to 11,744.17, also hurt by a decline for stocks in mainland China, where the Shanghai Composite dropped 0.9%. Shares of HSBC /quotes/comstock/22h!e:5 (HK:5 86.08, -0.40, -0.46%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 54.90, +0.53, +0.98%) dropped 3.1%, and China Mobile /quotes/comstock/22h!e:941 (HK:941 91.10, -0.25, -0.27%) /quotes/comstock/13*!chl/quotes/nls/chl (CHL 57.55, -0.01, -0.02%) shrank 2.9%, while Bank of China /quotes/comstock/22h!e:3988 (HK:3988 3.79, +0.05, +1.34%) /quotes/comstock/11i!bachy (BACH.Y 12.10, -0.45, -3.59%) fell 2.4%. 

Hutchison Telecom shares suspended

Hutchison Telecommunications International Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:2332 (HK:2332 1.98, -0.03, -1.49%) /quotes/comstock/13*!htx/quotes/nls/htx (HTX 3.79, -0.09, -2.35%) said Wednesday its shares have been suspended from trading "pending the release of an announcement regarding a very substantial disposal by the company." The Hong Kong telecom didn't give further details. It was slated to announce earnings later in the day.

Microsoft Corp. has reached an agreement with Nokia Corp. to make a mobile version of Microsoft's Office suite of software that works on Nokia mobile phones, The Wall Street Journal reported late Tuesday, citing a person familiar with the matter. 

Chinese prosecutors have charged four staff members of Anglo-Australian miner Rio Tinto Plc. with corporate espionage and bribery, according to an announcement late Tuesday in state media. 

China imports record crude, iron ore as economy expands

China's imports of oil and iron ore hit a record high in July, customs data showed Tuesday, as the nation's $586 billion stimulus plan continues to push up demand for commodities.

Crude imports jumped 18% from a month ago to 19.63 million metric tons last month, or about 4.64 million barrels a day, according to monthly data released by China's General Administration of Customs. Iron-ore imports rose 5% to 58.08 million metric tons.

China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer and the No. 1 user of iron ore, spent $13.8 billion in the imports of the two commodities. China's strong demand for commodities came also as the country continued to build its strategic reserve for crude, copper and other commodities.

Total oil imports in the first seven months rose to 110.4 million metric tons, up 5.5% from a month ago. Iron-ore imports rose to 355.25 million metric tons, up 31.8% from a year ago.

"This rapid and broad-based growth in commodity imports in July reflects both the strong real demand in China and China's deep pockets," said Ting Lu, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in a note.

Merrill Lynch recently raised its forecast for the world's third-largest economy to grow 8.7%, from 8% previously. China last month reported its economy increased by a higher-than-expected 7.9% in the second quarter. See full story on China's economic growth data.

Official data released on Tuesday showed China's industrial production and investments in urban fixed assets increased at a rapid rate in July, keeping alive expectations government policies will continue to support an economic recovery. See related story.

While global oil demand is expected to fall this year for a second year in a raw, China's oil demand is expected to rise by 1.1%, according to the International Energy Agency. The IEA also expects China's oil demand in 2010 to rise by 4.2% to 8.3 million barrels a day.

"Recent data continue to paint a bullish picture for underlying energy demand in China, and one that is clearly improving," said Amrita Sen, an oil analyst at Barclays Capital.

China imports more than half of its oil demand.

In Tuesday trading, crude futures slid 1.9% to $69.23 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has rallied about 60% this year.

U.S-listed shares of PetroChina Ltd. /quotes/comstock/13*!ptr/quotes/nls/ptr (PTR 116.09, -1.68, -1.43%) slid 1.4% to $116.17, those of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. /quotes/comstock/13*!snp/quotes/nls/snp (SNP 86.43, +0.14, +0.17%) fell 1.6% to $86.64.

Japan wholesale prices fall record 8.5%

Wholesale prices in Japan fell a record 8.5% in July from the year-earlier period, the Bank of Japan said Wednesday.

The fall in the preliminary domestic Corporate Goods Price Index outpaced a 6.7% on-year fall in June. However, the July figures marked a 0.4% rise when compared to the month before.

The drop was the fastest on-year decline on record but still came in below an average market forecast for an 8.6% fall, according to a Kyodo news report.

Import prices were down 33.3% on-year in yen terms and down 26.5% on a contract-currency basis, the data said.

Export prices fell 15.3% in yen terms and 6.5% in contract currencies.

Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

Economists date the start of the recession to December 2007 -- defining much of Ben Bernanke's term as Federal Reserve chairman -- and a majority in a Wall Street Journal survey agree that the recession is coming to an end.

Is the recession over? Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal say yes, and they suggest that's a big reason why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should stay.

The Journal reports that the experts are overwhelmingly in favor of President Obama asking Bernanke to stay on for another four-year term when his current term ends Jan. 31. Bernanke has been a key figure in the government's efforts to reverse the country's economic meltdown, a role that has earned him some criticism but also praise for handling of the crisis.

Economists date the start of the recession to December 2007 -- defining much of Bernanke's term, which started in early 2006 -- and a majority agree that the recession is coming to an end.

Bernanke "deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets," Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein told the Journal.

Obama said last week that the "worst may be behind us," and the Labor Department on Tuesday seemed to bolster that notion, reporting that productivity surged in the spring by the largest amount in almost six years while labor costs plunged at the fastest pace in nine years.

Productivity is a key ingredient for rising living standards because it means that companies can pay their workers more with the wage increases financed by rising output.

However, in the current recession, companies have been using the productivity gains to bolster their bottom lines in the face of declining sales. Many companies have been reporting second-quarter earnings results that have beaten expectations despite falling sales, due largely to their aggressive cost cutting.

Many economists believe the current recession is on the verge of ending. If the economy starts to grow in the second half of this year, companies are expected to switch from layoffs and trimming workers' hours to boosting employment as demand for their products increases.

As for Bernanke, it seems increasingly likely that he'll get to keep his job.

"Continuity is critical as we emerge from this crisis," Diane Swonk of Mesirow Financial told the Wall Street Journal. "Otherwise, we could slip back in again.

Bernanke is the best suited to undo what has been done when the time comes."

China's July fiscal revenue up 10.2% 

China's Ministry of Finance announced Wednesday that the country's fiscal revenue in July rose 10.2 percent year on year to 669.59 billion yuan (97.96 billion U.S. dollars). 

White House Adviser Summers Predicts Slow Recovery.

Breaking News:

U.S. Marines Mount Assault on Taliban Town

U.S. Marines have mounted a helicopter assault to seize the Taliban-held town of Dahaneh in southern Afghanistan and are fighting gain control of the area ahead of next week's presidential elections.

The assault began before dawn Wednesday, with Marines entering the town as others battled militants in the surrounding mountains.

Associated Press journalists traveling with the first wave say Marines were met with small arms, mortar and rocket propelled grenade fire. Fighting is still under way hours later, with U.S. Marine Harrier jets streaking over the town and dropping flares in a show of force.

Marines have captured several suspects and seized about 66 pounds (30 kilos) of opium.

   

INVESTEMENT VIEW
Are Banks creating A Real Estate Bubble? 

Are they spurring unwanted personal consumption by throwing cheap loans at borrowers?

 
It's a crazy circle. Banks lower interest rates on deposits, find there are no takers for credit. So they go out and reduce rates on personal and car loans, even mortgages. But these sectors are the worst hit by rising numbers of unemployment. So Banks try something else-they go for GOI Treasuries.
 

For 10 year paper they bid 7 per cent, but already 2-3 year deposit rates fetch 7 per cent so there is an asset-liability mismatch if Banks go for long term paper funded by equally costing short term paper. So once more they cut deposit rates and the circle keeps repeating till the situation becomes so bad, that interest rates drop to zero and yet there are no safe customers to whom money can be lent out. So what do you do?

 

Just sit on your haunches and hope for better times. Or atleast this is what commercial banks are doing. Either they get cheap deposits or they get higher yields on 10 year Treasuries. The failure of the recent Bond offering from the Government last week shows the malaise. The GOI will not accept higher yields and Banks will not accept lower yields.

 

The Depositor will suffer and so would investors as Bank returns keep dropping. Anyone with common sense should look around the Globe, even with zero per cent interest rates in Japan, US and Hong Kong the economies are not growing. Infact, Economic Activity is sinking. So zero interest rates is not the answer. The answer lies in Growth, but if the Banks start taking speculative risk on sectors like Real Estate then we have a problem of Banking proportions on our hand.

 

To raise or not to raise?

 

Do the banks want to raise rates? Probably not. Not when they know the fragile state that many of their borrowers will be in once rates really start rising.

The fact is they've got to. With all the debt floating around on the market, and more to come, the competition for debt issues will be even fiercer this time next year.

Banks will have to offer higher levels of interest in order to attract funds. That will have to filter through to their borrowers. There's no question about that.

The ability to move on interest rates has been helped by their little PR coup on bank fees. It's much easier for them to take a small hit in the pocket now on fees knowing full well they'll have an easy excuse to increase interest rates regardless of what the RBI does.

Even until recently the economists at the major banks were still singing from the same hymn sheet - "interest rates will fall further." Most of them were calling for a drop to 2% as they told us not to worry about inflation.

All the while the banks were helping to fuel the hot air keeping the property bubble in the air. They've succeeded in suckering in hundreds of thousands of property buyers on the back of artificially low interest rates. 

Extraordinarily, not a single one of the expert economists at the banks have considered this to be a problem. How could they possibly ignore it?

After all, the low interest rates and government cash bribes have given the property sector a three-in-one boost. A boost that can only result in a bubble.

This triumvirate consists of: people who would have bought into the market now anyway, those that have been delaying a purchase, and those that have brought forward a purchase.

The simple laws of supply and demand tell you that if you're grouping together every potential purchaser from the last five years, today, and the next five years, it has to have an impact on prices.

When demand rises, prices rise. We're not talking a complex scientific formula here.

But still the mainstream media largely ignores it.

The big problem for the banks and the property sector could come as early as next year. With interest rates even 1% higher than today, and no government bribes there will undoubtedly be fewer buyers in the market.

That will be bad news for the banks, especially if home repossessions continue to rise. Think about what it'll be when rates push higher and the cost of servicing loans also increases.

All we can say is that it's a good job the banks are stocking up the cupboards now. We may soon find out whether they've kept enough in reserve to last through the Property Winter of Discontent or not.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381