Market Outlook 7th Aug 2009

INTRADAY calls for 7th Aug 2009
+ve Scripts : Alphageo, Wockpharma
Buy J&KBank-477 @ 460 for a target 500 stop loss 454
Buy HUL-278 @ 268 for a target 278 stop loss 264
Buy ABB-682 @ 660 for a target 680 stop loss 650

Positional
Buy Maheseamles-271 @ 263 for a target 300 stop loss 258
Buy Selan-203 @ 193 for a target 250 stop loss 185
Buy KLGSys-179 @ 175 for a target 250 stop loss 169
Buy DCB-38 @ 37 for a target 58 stop loss 34

 

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS

SUPPORT

4540

4473

4406

RESISTANCE

4588

4606

4675

4742

4809

4875

SGX -40

http://karvindia.blogspot.com

 

Strong & Weak  futures,

This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bharat Forge, GT OFFshore,Aban OFFshore,Patni,Shree Renuka,Jindal Saw,Tata Motors, kotak Bank,DCB & Polaris Softwar 

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Divi'S Lab, Suzlon,Ivrcl Infra,Abb Ltd,Patel Engineering,Chambal Fert,Crompton Greaves,Federal Bank,Hero Honda & GMR Infra,

Nifty is in Up Trend. 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Selling may continue up to 4540-4542 zone for time being.

Hurdles at 4588 & 4606 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4673-4675 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4740-4742 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4807-4809 zone. Stop Loss at 4873-4875 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4473-4475 zone can create panic up to 4406-4408 zone. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Downtrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:  
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 16861 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15065 level for your long positions too.
 
Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,256.26. Down by 24.71 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 997.08. Down by 5.64 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,973.16. Down by 19.89 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 47.68/69 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 47.52/53.

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	06-Aug-2009	2509.11	2880.52	-371.41

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	06-Aug-2009	1524.08	1266.68	257.4

 

 Interesting findings on web:
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 24.71 points, or 0.27%, to 9256.26, the Standard & Poor's 500 dropped 5.64 points, or 0.56%, to 997.08 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 19.89 points, or 1%, to 1973.16.

Stocks fell for a second straight session Thursday as tech stocks dragged after Cisco's tepid outlook and investors remained jittery ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.

In today's economic news, initial claims for unemployment benefits fell by 38,000 last week, much more than expected. The total number of people on unemployment benefits continued to rise, indicating that new layoffs are tapering off but job creation hasn't started to pick up yet.

This came after a pair of disappointing employment reports yesterday: ADP said 371,000 jobs were cut from private-sector payrolls in July, more than the 335,000-loss expected. And Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that planned job cuts jumped 31 percent last month.

Jobs were at the forefront of traders' minds today as Friday brings the government's employment report.

Economists expect it to show 320,000 jobs were dropped from non farm payrolls in July, following a loss of 467,000 in June.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires on average expect July non-farm payrolls to have dropped by 275,000 jobs, from a loss of 467,000 jobs in the previous month.

There was even some buzz in the market today that the number could come in better than expected.

Investors had a negative cue from Wall Street's performance on Thursday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping 0.3%. That, coupled with uncertainty ahead of U.S. non-farm payrolls data later in the global day, prompted some light profit-taking.

"The (U.S. payrolls) data is one of key indicators that will help investors gauge the pace of the recovery of the U.S. consumer spending. So they want to see if the data quells the recent enthusiasm or helps extend the recent rallies," said Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities in Seoul.

Thursday's slump was led by sinking energy stocks and the Nasdaq Composite, which tumbled twice as far as the broader markets.

Even though the losses have been modest, the two-day losing streak stands in contrast to the bullish tone that has dominated Wall Street for the past several weeks. The mini selloff comes in the shadow of Friday's jobs report, which is likely to show the U.S. unemployment rate edged even closer to the psychologically-important 10% threshold.

Financial stocks were the Dow's top percentage gainers after some encouraging analyst comments.

The biggest percentage winners on the index were American Express (AXP: 31.31, 0.97, 3.2%) and Boeing (BA: 45.51, 1.73, 3.95%).

Bank of America [BAC  16.70    0.04  (+0.24%)   ] gained 0.2 percent after Keefe, Bruyette & Woods said the bank will likely post mild losses in the second half and turn profitable in 2010.

AIG [AIG  22.53    0.53  (+2.41%)   ] gained 2.4 percent, after being up more than 25 percent at one point, following a front-page story in the Wall Street Journal today that banks and lawyers could stand to collect nearly $1 billion in fees from the breakup of the insurer.

Former AIG CEO Hank Greenberg agreed to pay $15 million to settle past accounting issues with the SEC.

CIT Group [CIT  1.62    0.23  (+16.55%)   ] jumped 17 percent after the lender recently secured a $3 loan facility from bondholders.

Morgan Stanley (MS: 30.51, -0.519, -1.67%) said it inked a deal with the government to repurchase its TARP warrants for $950 million. The bank said the deal provides taxpayers with a 20% annualized return.

Ford [F  8.07    -0.37  (-4.38%)   ] dropped 4.4 percent, even after the Senate reached a deal late Wednesday to extend the "Cash for Clunkers" program through September, pumping another $2 billion into the program.

And General Motors [MTLQQ  0.6251    0.1081  (+20.91%)   ] jumped 21 percent, though that's only 11 cents, after the automaker announced plans for a plug-in rechargeable midsize SUV, to be released sometime in late 2010 or in 2011.

Just over half of the Dow's 30 members closed on the downside, led by Proctor & Gamble (PG: 51.44, -2.55, -4.72%) and Alcoa (AA: 12.78, -0.51, -3.84%).

Cisco [CSCO  22.308    0.138  (+0.62%)   ] was what created some of the uncertainty in the tech sector after the networking-gear maker beat earnings expectations but said it's too soon to call a recovery. Still, its shares eked out a gain of 0.6 percent, while most of the rest of the tech sector finished lower.

Energy stocks led the way down Thursday as stocks like Sunoco (SUN: 25.61, -0.83, -3.14%) and Chevron (CVX: 69.21, -0.62, -0.89%) slumped as crude oil tumbled as much as 2%. Yet the commodity closed well off its worst levels, settling down 3 cents a barrel, or 0.04%, at $71.94.

Meanwhile, the markets responded well to the 11th consecutive month of declining same-store sales from retailers, the longest such streak since records began in 1990. While Costco (COST: 48.75, -0.31, -0.63%) and Target (TGT: 41.7687, 0.0087, 0.02%) reported worse-than-expected sales declines, other retailers like Saks (SKS: 5.322, -0.088, -1.63%) and Limited Brands (LTD: 14.39, 1.65, 12.95%) beat the Street's view and Buckle (BKE: 26.27, -4.68, -15.12%) even posted a sales increase.

Macy's (M: 15.04, 0.79, 5.54%) reported a worse-than-expected decline of 10.7% in July same-store sales. However, the department store operator sees a non-GAAP profit of 15 cents to 17 cents in the second quarter, well above the Street's view.

Gap [GPS  18.14    1.37  (+8.17%)   ] up more than 5 percent.

After the bell today, we'll hear from CBS [CBS  8.54    -0.32  (-3.61%)   ], Nvidia, and VeriSign, among others.

Comcast (CMCSA: 15.06, 0, 0%) beat the Street with a 53% jump in net income during the second quarter even as its subscriber growth slowed. Comcast's revenue climbed 4.5% to $8.94 billion, also topping estimates.

Target (TGT: 41.7687, 0.0087, 0.02%) disappointed Wall Street with a 6.5% decline in same-store sales. However, the discount retailer said it is seeing "modestly improving risk trends" in its credit card segment.

Saks (SKS: 5.322, -0.088, -1.63%) weighed in with a 16.3% decline in same-store sales during July as the luxury department store chain continues to reel from the recession. The double-digit decline in sales was slightly better than the 16.6% slide analysts had been bracing for.

Brinker International (EAT: 15.12, -3.27, -17.78%) saw its shares fall more than 17% after the casual dining chain issued disappointing earnings guidance. Still, the operator of Chili's and Macaroni Grill topped estimates with a quarterly profit of 52 cents per share. Its sales tumbled by a worse-than-expected 22.7% to $829.4 million.

Wendy's/Arby's Group (WEN: 5.08, 0.32, 6.72%) said it swung to a profit in the second quarter as the company nearly tripled its revenue. The third-largest U.S. fast food chain earned 3 cents per share, compared to a loss of 7 cents per share a year ago.

Sirius XM (SIRI: 0.531, -0.009, -1.67%) reported an in-line loss of 1 cent a share, excluding one-item items, as the company saw subscriptions fall by nearly 1% during the quarter. On an adjusted basis, the satellite radio operator's revenue grew 1.1% to $607.8 million, also matching estimates.

The U.S. Senate voted on a razor thin margin to approve a further $2 billion to extend the popular "Cash for Clunkers" program, ensuring the voucher scheme will be able to continue through the rest of the summer.

Oil, Treasury & Currencies:

U.S. oil prices fell back slightly from a six-week high on Thursday, pulled lower by weakness on Wall Street and gains in the U.S. dollar.

U.S. light, sweet crude [US@CL.1  71.58    -0.36  (-0.5%)] fell 3 cents to settle at $71.94 a barrel, after touching a peak of $72.42 earlier in the day, the highest since late June. London Brent crude [GB@IB.1  74.58    -0.25  (-0.33%)] fell 68 cents to settle at $74.83 a barrel.

U.S. Treasury prices finished slightly lower Thursday after some volatility, as a better-than-expected weekly jobs report encouraged hopes of economic recovery but slipping stock led to some safe-haven flows. 

The dollar headed for a fifth weekly drop against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners as investors sought higher-yielding assets ahead of a Labor Department report forecast to show companies cut fewer jobs.

The yen was poised for a weekly loss versus 14 of its 16 major counterparts on signs the global recession is abating, curbing demand for safe-haven currencies. The Australian dollar is set to rise a fourth week against the greenback and yen after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it may raise interest rates.

"Market sentiment has been recovering significantly," said Yuji Saito, head of the foreign-exchange group in Tokyo at Societe Generale SA, France's third-largest lender. "An improved U.S. employment report will probably lead to selling of the dollar and the yen."

The Dollar Index traded at 77.99 as of 11:04 a.m. in Tokyo from 78.053 in New York yesterday and 78.347 on July 31. The gauge, which the ICE uses to track the U.S. currency against the euro, yen, pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and the Swedish krona, fell to 77.428 on Aug. 5, the lowest level since Sept. 29.

The yen traded at 136.86 per euro from 136.94 in New York yesterday, and was at 95.35 per dollar from 95.46. Australia's dollar bought 83.81 U.S. cents from 83.95 cents, and fetched 79.91 yen from 80.13 yen. The pound traded at $1.6763 from $1.6783 yesterday, when it slid as much as 1.4 percent in the biggest intraday drop since July 6. Against the pound, the euro was at 85.56 pence, from 85.49 pence.

What to expect:

FRIDAY: July jobs report; consumer credit; Earnings from Liberty Media.

Besides the 8:30 employment report, other data includes consumer credit at 3 p.m. AIG reports earnings Friday. The stock has moved sharply higher this week, in what traders describe as a short squeeze. 

Friday Look Ahead: July Job Losses Seen Slowing

July's employment report could show job losses abating more than expected, even as the unemployment rate creeps closer to 10 percent.

Wall Street economists were still crunching their forecasts Thursday, with some coming in well under what had been the street's consensus.

"The consensus is for right around minus 325,000 and that consensus has slowly risen, as evidenced by Goldman and Deutsche today. That tells me that if it's true, the position of the street is it's bracing for a stronger than consensus print," said RBS head Treasury strategist Bill O'Donnell. He said bonds had been pricing in some fear about the number. "For the bond market, the fear is a less negative number, which would be good for stocks."

Goldman Sachs economists Thursday trimmed their forecast from -300,000 to -250,000 and maintained an expected unemployment rate of 9.7 percent. Deutsche Bank chief U.S. economist Joseph LaVorgna revised his forecast for non farm payrolls to -150,000, from -325,000.

The improved outlook for jobs follows on a batch of raised expectations for third quarter GDP in the past week. Many economists now expect the quarter to show growth, based on recent economic data and some optimism that the automobile industry is gaining traction from the "cash for clunkers" program. The benefit from "clunkers" may be temporary, however.

"The economy is growing this quarter. I think the job loss has been extreme because a lot of it has to do with the financial crisis immediately following Lehman. If GDP is turning positive for the first time against that backdrop, it seems reasonable at some point that the rate of job losses would slow and slow quite markedly," said LaVorgna.

"When you're at an economic inflection point, as we are, we think right now the improvement in payrolls tends to be greater than the improvement in (unemployment) claims," he said.

On Thursday, the government said new claims for unemployment benefits fell to 550,000 last week, from a revised 588,000 the week earlier. Economists had expected 580,000 new claims.

Goldman Sachs economists, in a note, said one reason they changed their forecast is because of a stabilizing in the economy and an improvement in jobless claims, which indicates improvement in the labor market. Goldman pointed out that its view is for a better outcome even after correcting for the seasonal distortions created by the shut down of auto plants. It also notes that the short-term hiring and then firing of government census workers reduced payrolls by 49,000 in June.

However, Mesirow Financial chief economist Diane Swonk said she's sticking to her forecast for losses of 400,000 payrolls.

"I actually think it's going to be a worse number, more like 400,000, but I'm not sure how relevant that is because we're going to see improvement in August and September given the (automobile) production schedule," she said.

"The other issue is the shadow unemployment rate. How are people who are so discouraged and long-term unemployed doing? These are the issues that are becoming part of the cost to the budget regardless of whether you a have stimulus or not. It really underscores that no matter how you cut it, it costs revenues when you have a recession. The other subplot is the chronically unemployed. It's a big deal," she said.

Swonk said the "shadow" unemployment rate — including the underemployed and people who no longer look for jobs — is about 16 or 17 percent.

While manufacturing job losses may show some signs of abating, previously strong areas like health care and education should show reductions. "A lot of hospitals are cutting back. They're cutting back on administration," she said.

One sector that may see a pickup sooner than others is small business. If you look at statistics provided by the National Federation of Independent Business, which represents small business, it sees the unemployment rate lower by October, at 9.1 percent. This contrasts with the expectation of most Wall Street economists, who believe the unemployment rate will continue to climb and peaks at double digit levels some time between late this year to mid next year.

William Dunkelberg, an economist for the group, reports that small businesses were still shedding jobs in July — with 24 percent surveyed reducing employment by 4.1 workers.

"I looked at the July numbers and by industry and by region, everything was flat to down...As far as job creation, we need the consumer to come back," he said.

In the next three months, the NFIB's survey shows that 14 percent of the businesses plan to reduce employment, while 9 percent plan to create new jobs. Owners are also cutting compensation as well.

The NFIB's forecast tends to forecast the actual unemployment rate fairly well, if you look at a chart. Dunkelberg said it went off course once, during the recession of the early 1980s.

"Fortunately we don't have a lot of recessions to look at. I think it probably squares up with me okay because we're not firing as many people ... that could bring the unemployment rate down. It's still very high, " he said. "If we quit firing people, the unemployment rate will come down. Even in the best of times of 4.5 percent unemployment — there are 350,000 people every week filing for unemployment claims."

Dunkelberg also said the summer is a slow season for hiring and fall hiring doesn't show up until August and September.

Stocks traded in a narrow range Thursday, in subdued trading ahead of the jobs report. The Dow as down 24 at 9256, while the S&P 500 was down 5 at 997, its first close below 1,000 since last Friday. The worst performers were defensive telecom, down 1.2 percent and health care, off 1 percent. Industrials were the best performer, up 0.6 percent.

Bonds drifted in slow trading. "If you look at the 10-year, they were sharply unchanged," said O'Donnell.

The 10-year was trading 3.76 percent. The dollar was slightly higher and commodities were mostly lower. 

Obama in No Rush About Bernanke's Fate at Fed

President Barack Obama is unlikely to tip his hand as soon as financial markets would like on whether he plans to name Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to another term.

Many investors have signaled they would prefer Bernanke to get a new four-year term after his first one expires on Jan. 31, 2010 and they would like Obama to lay to rest any uncertainty about the renomination without delay.

But the president is likely to take his time as he weighs whether Bernanke's role in the run-up to the credit crisis will be a political liability going forward and if there is firm evidence the economic recovery is on track.

"If you get beyond August without an announcement, the markets will begin to get nervous," said Camden Fine, the president of the Independent Community Bankers of America.

Taking history as a guide, a public announcement could be be delayed until late October. That is when former President George W. Bush announced his replacement for Alan Greenspan in 2005. 

Airline stocks advance while performance declines

Demand for airline travel has fallen for the last 13 months, but experts think the drop has finally bottomed out: "[I]nvestors bet the falloff in demand had reached a trough, with no where to go but up," The Wall Street Journal reported earlier this week.

In response, stocks prices are up slightly. Bloomberg's U.S. Airline Index grew 4%, a ten-year high. Year-over-year traffic is still declining, but not as rapidly as it has been (At United, for example, traffic fell 12.5% in May and 7.5% in June, but only 4% in July.).

Asia:

Asian stocks fell for the third time in four days as metals prices declined and on concern a U.S. unemployment report later today will hurt investors' confidence in a global recovery.

Toyota Motor Corp., which gets 31 percent of its revenue in North America, lost 2.2 percent. A report is forecast to show the U.S. jobless rate climbed to the highest in 26 years. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, sank 2.9 percent in Sydney.

Konica Minolta Holdings Inc., a maker of printers and office equipment, slumped 10 percent after first- quarter profit tumbled 98 percent. China Construction Bank Corp. may be active in Hong Kong after saying it will reduce lending.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.4 percent to 112.11 as of 10:34 a.m. in Tokyo, paring its advance this week to 0.2 percent.

The gauge has climbed 59 percent from a five-year low on March 9 on speculation the global economy is recovering.

"The market has run a bit ahead of the fundamentals," said Rob Patterson, who helps manage $2.7 billion at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide, Australia. "Things are getting less worse rather than better. Having said that, we're hopeful we've passed the low point and that the world is becoming a better place."

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average dropped 0.5 percent, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.9 percent. New Zealand's NZX 50 Index rose 0.2 percent.

Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index were little changed. The gauge slipped 0.6 percent yesterday as JPMorgan Chase & Co. downgraded health-care stocks.

Japan's Nikkei stock average edged down on Friday as investors, nervous ahead of crucial U.S. jobs data, locked in profits, with Honda Motor Co (7267.T) and other carmakers down after climbing the day before.

Konica Minolta Holdings Inc. (4902) shares sharply fell back Friday morning, briefly going limit-down by 100 yen to 891 yen.

Shares in Mitsubishi Rayon Co. (3404) bounced back Friday morning, briefly rising 15 yen to 273 yen, after The Nikkei reported the same day that the firm plans to start producing a high-performance chemical in Saudi Arabia.

Japan Airlines Corp. (9205) officially announced Friday morning that it will step up efforts to reduce excess seat capacity, canceling or reducing flights on 10 international routes from Oct. 25. The nation's leading carrier also said it will stop flights for six domestic routes. 

HSI 20674.03 -225.21 -1.08%. (08.35 AM IST).

Hong Kong stocks moved broadly lower in early Thursday trade, with financial shares trading down amid general concern that mainland China may significantly tighten lending in the near term. The Hang Seng Index traded 1% down at 20,695 in mid-morning action, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was off 2% at 11,815. Shares of China Construction Bank Corp. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:939 (HK:939 5.77, -0.17, -2.86%) fell 2.7% after a Bloomberg report that it intends to sharply curb lending in the second half of the year, while Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:3988 (HK:3988 3.66, -0.08, -2.14%) lost 1.9% and HSBC Holdings Plc /quotes/comstock/22h!e:5 (HK:5 85.00, -0.20, -0.24%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 55.77, +1.53, +2.82%) slipped 0.1%. Shanghai-listed shares were also lower, with the Shanghai Composite off 0.6%.

China:

China Construction Bank Corp. President Zhang Jianguo said the nation's second-largest bank will cut new lending by about 70 percent in the second half to avert a surge in bad debt.

"We noticed that some loans didn't go into the real economy," Zhang, 54, said in an interview yesterday at the bank's headquarters in Beijing. "I feel that some industries are expanding too rapidly. For example, housing prices are rising too fast, and housing sales are growing too fast."

Volkswagen AG, world's third-largest auto maker, sold a record 652,222 vehicles in China and Hong Kong in the first half of year, up 22.7% year on year, making China its biggest auto market worldwide for the first time, sources reported.

China's GDP to grow 8% this year: State Information Center

China's gross domestic product is expected to grow about 8% this year thanks to the economic recovery under the government's stimulus package, the State Information Center said in a report released on Thursday.

In the first half of the year, the gross capital formation and consumption, which contributed 87.6% and 53.4% respectively to the country's economic growth, drove the GDP to grow 6.2% and 3.8%. However, the slump net exports caused by the falling foreign demand amid the global economic recession dragged the GDP growth down by 2.9%, according to the report.

The State Information Center estimated that China's consumer price index will edge down 0.5% in 2009, while the producer price index will decline 5%.

The M2 money supply will increase 23.5% this year, far more than the 17% target set by the government.

The State Information Center suggested that the government should stick to a relatively relaxed monetary policy and strengthen the credit structure to prevent the possible financial risks.

China's exports are expected to decline 17.5% this year, the center said, adding that imports may fall 16%. The trade surplus is expected to shrink to US$220 billion.

    

INVESTMENT VIEW
Abbott Labs: Rising Volumes, Rising Price, Heading For Rs 750 at 15XFY09 EPS
 
Abbott Labs: Rising Vols, Rising Price Indicate Move Up to Rs 750

FY09 (October End) estimated EPS Rs 50, 12 M Target Rs 750 at 15XFY09 EPS

 

Abbott, is a company that focuses on turning science into caring – ABBOTT, A Promise for Life. For more than a century, Abbott Laboratories has been working to advance health care for people around the world. Founded in 1888 by a young Chicago physician, Dr Wallace Calvin Abbott, Abbott Laboratories has evolved into a diversified health care company that discovers, develops, manufactures and markets innovative products and services.

 

Products and services of Abbott, span the continuum of care from prevention and diagnosis, to treatment and cure. Abbott today is a global, diversified health care company devoted to the discovery, development, manufacture and marketing of pharmaceutical, diagnostic, nutritional and hospital products.

 

The company now employs approximately 65,000 people and markets its products in 130 countries worldwide.

 

Abbott extends this commitment with a strong presence in India as it has grown and evolved its operations in India over many decades. Products encircle life from newborns to ageing adults. Abbott has built expertise and leadership in primary care therapeutic areas like Gastroenterology and Paincare. Specialty areas include Neuroscience, Metabolics and Hospital Care.

 

Abbott serves the needs of Indian consumers with products backed by science and R&D. It has locally developed brands like Digene, Cremaffin, Epilex, Zolfresh and Obimet. Abbott has also brought global products including Brufen, Prothiaden, Ganaton, Sevorane, Thyronorm and Leptos to Indian consumers. Abbott's pioneering products like Survanta help infants.

 

Abbott India, today has strong brand equity and commands esteem in the market place. To reach the customer, Abbott India has a network of 18 distribution points, which cater to 11,000 stockists and 70,000 retailers. Behind Abbott India's success, is a team of competent, committed people, driven by the principles of Value Based Management, and aided by strong alliances and partnerships.

 

Abbott India Limited, provides healthcare solutions through its four business units: 

Primary Care, which markets products in the areas of Pain Management, Gastroenterology, with well-known brands like Brufen, Digene, Cremaffin. 

Specialty Care – Metaboloics & Urology provides solutions in the areas of Thyroid, Obesity, Diabetes and Benign Prostratic Hyperplasia. 

Specialty Care - Neuroscience has a varied portfolio, with specialty products in the Neurology and Psychiatric segments. 

Hospital Care, offers products in the field of anesthesiology and neonatology namely Forane, Sevorane and Survanta.

 

The company has over 1000 employees and a state-of-the-art formulation plant at Verna in Goa. The manufacturing locations are designed to produce quality, high volume formulations using cost efficient processes. The plant has well equipped laboratories and trained personnel to ensure international standards of quality at each step of the manufacturing process.

 

The company has in-house development and medical teams to undertake product and clinical development tailored to the needs of the Indian market. Abbott provides quality health care worldwide by creating healthcare solutions, which directly affects the life of the common man.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 6th Aug 2009

 

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bharat Fo,GT OFFshore,Tata Motors,Aban OFFshore,Jindal Saw,Shree Renuka,Hindalco,Polaris Softwar,Unitech Ltd and DCHL.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Divi'S Lab,Abb Ltd,TV18,Suzlon,Crompton Greaves,Patel Engineering,Union Bank Of India,Sun Pharma,BHARTI AIRTEL and Titan.
Nifty is in Up Trend. 

 

INTRADAY calls for 6th Aug 2009
+ve Scripts : IT, Heliosmath
Buy ONGC-1194 @ 1170 for a target 1190-1213 stop loss 1155
Buy Moserbaer-95 for a target 105 stop loss 91
Buy Harrmalaya-85 for a target 95 stop loss 81

Positional Calls
Buy ABirlanuvo-955 @ 935 for a target 1090-1113 stop loss 910
Buy Glenmark-269 @ 260 for a target 353 stop loss 250

Investment Calls
Buy Dishman-203 for a target 253 stop loss 195
Buy Megasoft-25 for a target 33-35 stop loss 22
Buy NMDC-386 for a target 475 stop loss 370

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4687 level, expect profit booking up to 4648-4650 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4623-4625 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 4715 & 4732 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 4744-4746 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4769-4771 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4782-4784 zone. Stop Loss at 4806-4808 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4610-4612 zone can create panic up to 4585-4587 zone. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:  
Lower opening expected. Recovery expected. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 16861 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15065 level for your long positions too.
 

INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy KOTAK MAHINDRA BANK (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 730 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 764 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 784 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 711 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy ACC LTD (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 917 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 937 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 949 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 905 level for your long positions too.
 

 

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	05-Aug-2009	1857.12	2547.65	-690.53

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	05-Aug-2009	1083.12	1107.02	-23.9

 

NIFTY SPOT LEVELS

	4694.15	( 0.29 %)	13.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		4730.95	4767.75	4818.30
Support		4643.60	4593.05	4556.25

	15903.83		( 0.46 %)	72.85
			1	2	3
Resistance			16019.58	16135.34	16297.57
Support			15741.59	15579.36	15463.60

 

Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,280.97. Down by 39.22 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,002.72. Down by 2.93 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,993.05. Down by 18.26 points.

The partially convertible rupee ended at Rs47.52/53 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Rs47.73/74 at it's previous close.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks slipped Wednesday as investors shied away from big moves ahead of the government's monthly reading on job losses and the unemployment rate, which comes out before the start of trading on Friday. The caution in Wednesday's trading followed a disappointing report on the service industry.

The service sector is a crucial component for the recovery, representing 80 percent of economic activity.

The Institute for Supply Management said its service index, a measure of the health of retail, financial services, transportation and health care companies, fell to 46.4 in July from 47 in June. It was the 10th straight monthly slide. Any readings below 50 indicate contraction.

This marks the first decrease in the index since March, according to Wells Fargo.

The report dampens expectations that economic activity will pick up significantly in second half of the year, said Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for IHS Global Insight. "The bottom line here is that the path from recession to recovery should not be expected to be smooth, and occasional setbacks should not be a surprise," he said.

Factory orders in June were up 0.4 percent to $349 billion. Analysts had expected orders to decline.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 39.22, or 0.4 percent, to 9,280.97.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 2.93, or 0.3 percent, to 1,002.72.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 18.26, or 0.9 percent, to 1,993.05.

U.S. stocks were under pressure Wednesday as investors focused on the job market as the biggest piece of the economic puzzle that still needs to fall into place for a sustained recovery.

A disappointing result from Procter & Gamble, the world's largest consumer goods company, dragged the blue chip Dow index down, ending a four-day winning streak on Wall Street.

P&G shares dropped 3% reporting an 18% decline in earnings and projected further declines in sales in the current quarter.

Whole Foods Market rose nearly 21% after its increased its earnings forecast.

Bank of America's stock had the biggest gains on the Dow, climbing $1.02, or 6.5 percent, to $16.66. Citigroup rose 33 cents, or 10.2 percent, to $3.54. JPMorgan [JPM  41.78    1.57  (+3.9%)   ] was one of the biggest gainer on the Dow.

Trading in Citi was heavy today as the bank recently completed an exchange of its preferred stock for common stock; the S&P will be rebalanced at the close today to reflect Citi's increased weighting in the index.

Ford [F  8.44    0.14  (+1.69%)   ] advanced 1.7 percent after Toyota's chairman said the US auto market will recover and be stronger than ever.

General Motors' [MTLQQ  0.517    0.0109  (+2.15%)   ] chairman said the board told management this week to roll out new vehicles faster.

A Senate vote on extending the "Cash for Clunkers" program could happen this week, though party bickering may push it to Saturday, Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid said.

Senators have reached a deal on saving the dwindling "cash for clunkers" program, agreeing to vote Thursday on adding $2 billion to the popular rebate plan.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced the vote after lengthy negotiations between Democratic and Republican lawmakers on Wednesday. Reid has said Democrats have enough votes to pass the bill, meaning consumers could take advantage of the rebates of up to $4,500 until Labor Day.

Speaking on the Senate floor late on Wednesday, Reid said the accord provides for votes on a half dozen amendments, all of which aides said are expected to be defeated.

The Senate would then give final approval to the measure, previously passed by the House of Representatives, and send it to President Barack Obama to sign into law.

The government says more than $775 million of the existing $1 billion fund has been spent. President Obama says the program will go broke by Friday if it's not refilled by Congress.

The Senate departs for a month-long recess at the end of the week.

Meanwhile, Japanese electronics maker Sony [SNE  28.06    0.06  (+0.21%)   ] is about to take on Amazon [AMZN  84.212    -1.588  (-1.85%)   ], offering a cheaper digital-book reader, which will sell for $199 and $299, with the difference being the size of the screen. Amazon's Kindles sell for $299 and $489. The Sony reader will be available through Wal-Mart and Best Buy. Amazon shares dropped 1.8 percent.

Kraft Foods [KFT  28.33    -0.01  (-0.04%)   ] ended flat after the mac-and-cheese maker beat earnings estimates after the bell Tuesday but sales disappointed.

Electronic Arts [ERTS  20.41    -1.48  (-6.76%)   ] shares really took a hit, sliding 6.8 percent, after the videogame maker reported a smaller-than-expected loss but said revenue tumbled 20 percent.

The S&P 500 pulled lower by losses in economically sensitive sectors such as industrials, consumer-discretionary stocks and technology. But its financial sector was up more than 3%.

AIG rose more than 69% to trade above $US22 a share ahead of its earnings report on Friday. CIT Group was up 48%. Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac each gained about 30%.

Cisco Systems, a component of all three major indexes, was down 1.1% ahead of its earnings report.

Cisco Wary on Recovery, but Earnings Beat Forecasts

Cisco Systems Chief Executive John Chambers said it was too soon to call a recovery and forecast another drop in quarterly revenue, sending its shares 3 percent lower.

The outlook from the world's largest network equipment maker overshadowed stronger-than-expected quarterly results.

While the revenue outlook was within estimates, the downbeat comments from the CEO came amid growing expectations that the global economic slowdown may be on the mend, and that companies will again invest in technology equipment.

Cisco, which makes routers and other network equipment, said it expects fiscal first-quarter revenue to fall by 15 to 17 percent from a year earlier. That was in line with expectations for a drop of about 16 percent, according to Reuters Estimates.

Tighter credit and a focus on expenses have made it harder for Cisco customers to invest in big-ticket technology equipment. Cisco's high-end router, CRS-1, for example, can cost as much as $1 million each.

Cisco is also one of the first large-cap technology companies to report results that include sales from most of July, making it an early indicator of trends in technology spending.

The U.S. company reported an 18 percent fall in fiscal fourth-quarter revenue as customers held back spending on network equipment.

Chambers told analysts on a conference call that it was too soon to call a recovery, despite "positive signs" in the economy and Cisco's orders.

Comments More Cautious

Revenue in the fiscal fourth quarter ended July 25 fell to $8.5 billion from $10.4 billion in the year-earlier period.

That was in line with Wall Street's average forecast, according to Reuters Estimates. The company had forecast a fall of around 17 percent to 20 percent.

Its profit was marginally better than expected. Quarterly net profit fell to $1.1 billion, or 19 cents a share, from $2.0 billion, or 33 cents a share, a year ago. Earnings excluding items were 31 cents, above the average analyst forecast of 29 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.

Chambers was once seen as one of Silicon Valley's most enthusiastic cheerleaders, but his recent comments have been somewhat cautious. He said a year ago that most customers expected a turnaround by the end of 2008, and that Cisco was setting its budget accordingly. But on Wednesday, he said he saw positive trends in orders but it was too early to declare a recovery.

Cisco shares [CSCO  22.17    -0.27  (-1.2%)   ] were down about 2 percent in extended trading after rising earlier in the late session. They closed Wednesday at $22.17, down 1.2 percent. Get after-hour quotes for Cisco Systems here.

After Chambers' comments on the call, the stock backpedaled and turned negative.

Chambers said the company was done restructuring and was now shifting its focus to growth. He said the company's headcount reduction slightly exceeded its previously announced target of about 1,500 to 2,000 jobs.

Data from the consulting firm Automatic Data Processing and Macroeconomic Advisors showed a slowing but still-brisk pace of private-sector job losses. The private sector shed 371,000 jobs last month, more than the 350,000 economists expected but less than the number of jobs eliminated in previous months. The report is a precursor to the government's monthly jobs report, due Friday.

A report on U.S. service-sector was also weaker than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said its monthly index of non-manufacturing activity was 46.4 in July, down from 47.0 in June, indicating a quickening contraction in activity.

Some were investors are still taking a breather after the market's summer rally. Major indexes came into Wednesday's action at their highest levels since the fall, when the financial and economic crises were in their early stages.

Strategist Phil Guarco, of J.P. Morgan Private Bank, said his firm has been putting more of its clients' cash to work in both debt and stocks lately, including a more aggressive push into small-capitalization stocks that have lagged the recent rally.

While Guarco said he believes a broader global recovery is underway, he's also still on guard against the lingering effects of the recession's final stages, including weakness in the employment sector.

"It's a tactical trade," he said of the increased small-cap holdings. "If we get the gains we're looking for in three to six months, we'll back out."

For the week:

The Dow is up 109.36, or 1.2 percent.

The S&P is up 15.24, or 1.5 percent.

The Nasdaq is up 14.55, or 0.7 percent.

For the year:

The Dow is up 504.58, or 5.8 percent.

The S&P is up 99.47, or 11.0 percent.

The Nasdaq is up 416.02, or 26.4 percent.

Treasury prices:

Treasury prices were lower but off their lowest levels of the morning after the ADP report. The benchmark 10-year note was off 14/32 to yield 3.74%, while the 30-year bond slid 1 2/32 to yield 4.53%. The dollar rose against the yen and the euro.

Oil & Dollar:

Crude-oil prices were slightly lower ahead of a weekly report on inventories of fuel in the U.S. Traders expect to see an increase in stockpiles. The front-month crude-oil futures contract traded near $71.30 a barrel, losing a little ground after the weaker-than-expected employment report.

Dubai crude oil futures continued their ascent Thursday morning, surpassing the previous year-to-date high. The Asian benchmark's October delivery contract rose 55 cents to 73.30 dollars per barrel.

The dollar was mixed. One euro cost $1.4379, down from $1.4398 late Tuesday. One dollar fetched 95.17 Japanese yen, down from 95.27 yen.

What to expect:

THURSDAY: Chain-store sales; weekly jobless claims; Earnings from Sirius XM, Unilever.

FRIDAY: July jobs report; consumer credit; Earnings from Liberty Media.

Asia:

The benchmark Nikkei average rose 1.1 percent and the broader TOPIX added 0.8 percent on Thursday.

Shares in Mitsui & Co. (8031) traded heavily for the second straight day Thursday, making the firm one of the top issues by trading value on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange's first section. On Wednesday, the Mitsui topped the list, rising 2%.

NTT Corp. (9432) shares continued their ascent Thursday morning, as its group operating profit for the April-June quarter, announced Wednesday, shrank by less than expected. 

Hong Kong shares advanced early Thursday after opening lower, ignoring a weak finish on Wall Street and a sharp decline in Shanghai. Shares of market heavyweight HSBC Holdings /quotes/comstock/22h!e:5 (HK:5 83.80, +1.35, +1.64%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 54.24, -0.21, -0.39%) jumped 2.7% on an improved outlook after its first-half results earlier in the week, with property stocks also higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.6% to 20,615.63, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was flat at 11,965.12. China's Shanghai Composite Index slumped 2.2% to 3,352.26 amid concerns regulators there might fine-tune moderately loose monetary policies. Most banks declined, and steelmakers extended losses in Shanghai, with Bank of China losing 1.8%, while Baoshan Iron & Steel sunk 4.3%.

Hong Kong stocks fell on Thursday morning, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index opening 10 points lower at 20,484.

The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks the overall performance of 43 mainland Chinese state-owned enterprises on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opened 47 points lower at 11,921.

China CITIC Bank Co Ltd<601998><0998> decreased 2.39% from the previous closing to HK$4.9. Hang Seng Bank<0011> fell 0.77% and opened at HK$115.9.

HSI 20469.08 -25.69 -0.13%. (08.26 AM IST).

After a weak start and a subsequent rally, the Korean market has drifted down into the red on Thursday with investors choosing to take some profits after recent strong gains.

The KOSPI, which had surged to 1,572 earlier in the day after opening modestly lower at 1,556, is now down by 3 points or 0.19% at 1,556.

The index had finished lower by 6.9 points or 0.4% at 1,559.47 on Wednesday, as gains among financial stocks were wiped out by selling pressure among technology shares and automobile producers.

Technology stocks are mostly trading lower. Hynix Semiconductor and LG Electronics are down by 1.6% and 1.5%, respectively, while LG Display LCD and heavyweight Samsung Electronics are down by about 0.6% each.

Steel stocks are trading mixed with Hyundai Steel drifting lower by 1% and POSCO recording a modest 0.8% gain. Oil stocks SK Holdings and S-Oil are up by 2.7% and 1%, respectively. KEPCO is up by 1.2%.

Among bank stocks, Korea Exchange Bank is up by 4%, while Woori Finance, Shinhan Financial and KB Financial are trading up by 1.4% - 1.6%.

In the automobile space, Ssangyong Motor is up nearly 10%. Kia Motor is up 0.7% and Hyundai Motor is trading 1.3% down. Among shipbuilders, Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding are trading modestly higher, while Samsung Heavy Industries is exhibiting weakness. STX Pan Ocean is up by 1.3%.

Chinese stocks fell more than 3 percent on Thursday, led by large cap shares on worries about adjustments to monetary policy that might impact market liquidity.

The Shanghai Composite Index .SSEC slipped as far as 3,309. 606 points, down 3.47 percent.

The market fell for a second day after a four-day rally stalled near the psychologically key mark of 3,500 points.

China's central bank said late on Wednesday in its monetary policy report for the second quarter that it would deploy a variety of tools to tweak monetary policy. [ID:nPEK368445] ($1=6.83 Yuan)

Government may unwind Fannie, Freddie: reports

The Obama administration is considering a variety of options to overhaul mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, including folding the companies into a new federal government entity, according to reports late Wednesday.

As part of an effort launched this week to reconfigure Fannie /quotes/comstock/13*!fnm/quotes/nls/fnm (FNM 0.78, +0.04, +5.41%) and Freddie /quotes/comstock/13*!fre/quotes/nls/fre (FRE 0.84, +0.04, +4.96%) , the government is considering splitting the companies and putting their troubled assets in a new federally backed corporation, the Washington Post reported.

Other options being considered include keeping the companies private, winding down their operations, and merging them directly into a federal agency, according to the Associated Press.

Word of the possible plans followed separate reports that Federal Housing Finance Agency Director James Lockhart, Fannie and Freddie's regulator, would resign by the end of the month.

Lockhart confirmed that the administration is discussing the "good bank / bad bank" model, the Washington Post said, referring to the idea of concentrating toxic assets in a single entity.

The administration is expected to unveil its plans for Fannie and Freddie next year, the AP reported.

News Corp. swings to loss on charges

Chairman Murdoch says news sites will charge for content.

News Corp. said Wednesday it swung to a quarterly loss on $680 million in impairment, restructuring and other charges, most of them in their Fox Interactive Media unit, as the struggling worldwide economy held a firm grip on the media conglomerate.

China:

China's power output increased 4.21% year on year to 348.50 billion kilowatt hours in July, the Shanghai Securities News reported on Wednesday.

The July figure reflects growth for the second consecutive month this year. The July growth rate was 0.62 percentage points higher than that of June.

In early July, China produced 11 billion kilowatt hours of power, up 3.02% from a year earlier. In mid-July, the country's power generation grew 7.91% year on year to 11.57 billion kilowatt hours. However, the power output only climbed 1.97% to 11.16 billion kilowatt hours in late July due to drops in temperature.

In the past two months, power consumption in secondary industry has grown rapidly. The power consumption of heavy industry, especially the steel and cement sectors, continued to increase quickly, while that of manufacturing industries such as the garment and food industries has also grown substantially.

A Chinese delegation of tire producers warned Wednesday that the proposed U.S. tariffs on Chinese tire export will hurt the American consumers and cause job loss as well. 

BOJ:

The Bank of Japan will probably forecast that declines in consumer prices will extend into 2011 even as the economy recovers, according to people familiar with the matter.

The estimate would be included in policy makers' first economic projections for the financial year ending March 2012, scheduled for release in October, said the people, who declined to be identified ahead of the report. Central bankers have already predicted prices will fall 1.3 percent in the current year and 1 percent in fiscal 2010.

Prospects for a third year of deflation make it likely Bank of Japan Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues will keep interest rates near zero through next year, analysts said. It would also erode profits at companies such as Aeon Co., Japan's second-largest retailer, which has been forced to offer discounts to attract consumers whose wages are tumbling.

"The Bank of Japan will hold the key rate at 0.1 percent at least through March 2011 to stop deflation from becoming deeply entrenched," said Jun Ishii, chief fixed-income strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. in Tokyo. "The central bank will probably consider further policy-easing action" should the risk of spiraling deflation mount, he also said.

Worst Recession

Japan is beginning to emerge from its worst postwar recession as exports improve and manufacturers boost production to replenish inventories. The revival has yet to spread to consumers, who are facing record declines in paychecks and an unemployment rate that economists say will reach an unprecedented 5.8 percent early next year.

Deflation may escalate as households, whose spending accounts for more than half of the nation's gross domestic product, delay purchases on the expectation that goods will get cheaper, restraining a recovery in the world's second-largest economy.

The central bank cut the key overnight rate to 0.1 percent in December, and has since begun buying corporate debt from lenders and offering them unlimited loans backed by collateral to channel funds to companies. The policy board last month extended the credit steps by three months to Dec. 31; some analysts said they'll need to extend them again.

"With little room left to trim the key rate, the Bank of Japan will have no choice but to keep the current extraordinary policy measures, including the credit-easing programs, for a long time," said Akio Makabe, an economics professor at Shinshu University in Matsumoto, central Japan.

   
 
MARKET BUZZ:
 
(May not be useful for day-traders.)

Torrent Power-Massive Growth Plans

 
 
 
After having successfully commissioned the 1147.5 MW Sugen gas based power plant at Surat, Torrent Power has announced it's long term strategic plan which will take power gen capacity from roughly 1700 MW to over 9000 MW.
 

The expansion plan includes raising the Sugen plant capacity to 4147.5 MW by adding two units of 1500 MW classified as Sugen II and Sugen III.

 

Dahej

Torrent has been named as co-developer for Dahej SEZ and would be putting up a 1500 MW gas based power plant in a joint venture with Ongc named as Torrent Energy Limited. The first phase plant will have a 400 MW unit, preliminary work on the project has started.

 

Pipavav

Torrent will set up a 2000 MW Coal based Thermal Power project in Pipavav, Amreli District of Gujarat. Torrent Pipavav Generation Limited has been incorporated as a subsidiary of Torrent Power. The land for the project is being provided by the Gujarat Power Corporation Limited and Coal linkage has been provided from the Baitarni Coal Block, Talcher, Orissa.

 

Morga

Torrent's bid to supply power to GMDC on the basis of coal to be supplied by GMDC from Morga Coal Block II Chattisgarh has been accepted. A 1000 MW coal based Thermal Power Plant will be set up in Chattisgarh.

 

All put together Torrent Power's total power gen capacity shall rise from the present 1747.5 MW to 9247.5 MW making it amongst the top 3-4 power gen corporations in the country with a collective asset block worth Rs 40000 crore or roughly $ 8 bn.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 5th Aug 2009

INTRADAY calls for 5th Aug 2009
+ve Sector,Script :Buy Pirhealth-332 for a target 342-351 stop loss 328Buy BHEL-2331 for a target 2365-2390 stop loss 2300
Expected BreakoutBuy ZEEL-202 above 205 for a target 220 stop loss 200
PositionalBuy KOTAKBANK-703 for a target 734-759 stop loss 690Buy GESHIP-273 for a target 7286-298 stop loss 267

Stocks that are in news today:
Axis Bank to raise funds via 7.14 crore shares QIP, GDR issue
Reliance Infrastructure gets Rs 11,000 crore Mumbai Metro II project
Exclusive: HCL Tech BPO in final stages of UK acquisition, deal size between $100-150 million
Tata Steel source says company in talks for supply to Toyota's small car project: NW18
HCC gets Rs 229 crore order for Goshikhurd Power Project
WWIL board approves - Rights issue of 23.67 crore shares at Rs 19/share; ratio of 109 shares for every 100 shares
PVR board approves merger of 100% subsidiary Sunrise Infotainment with itself
Deccan Chronicle buy back opens on August 12 ((offer at up to Rs 100/share))
Aegis Logistics buy back opens on August 10 ((offer at up to Rs 143/share))
Indiabulls-MMTC get FMC nod for Indian Commodity Exchange
Harbinger backs Sterlite in Asarco acquisition ((Harbinger is among largest bondholders in Asarco; had offered $500 million for stake in company))
Andhra Govt Says:
-RIL to pick up 67% in Krishna Godavari gas network
-GSPC to hold 11% in Krishna Godavari gas network

NIFTY FUTURES LEVEL
RESISTANCE
4705
4737
4757
4767
4787
SUPPORT
4669
4665
4655
4635
4623
4603
BUY HINDALCO; JINDAL SAW

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Bharat Forge, Patni, Tata Motors, Hindalco, ABAN, Jindal Saw, Aurobindo Pharma, Renuka, DCHL & Maruti
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Divi Lab, Patel Eng, Sun Pharma, Chambal Fert, Cromp Greav, KFA, Suzlon, ABB, R Power & RNRL
Nifty is in Up Trend.


NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 4705 level, expect short covering up to 4735-4737 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4755-4757 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4665 & 4669 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4653-4655 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4633-4635 zone by non-stop.

Below 4623-4625 zone, expect panic up to 4603-4605 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4765-4767 zone can take it up to 4785-4787 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop.


BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 16861 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15065 level for your long positions too.

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy HINDALCO INDS (NSE Cash)
Uptrend to continue.
Mild sell-off up to 112 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 117 level for time being.

If crosses & sustains at above 120 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 109 level for your long positions too.

Buy JINDAL SAW (NSE Cash)
Uptrend to continue.
Mild sell-off up to 504 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 524 level for time being.

If crosses & sustains at above 540 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 487 level for your long positions too.



FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	04-Aug-2009	2707.94	2488.84	+219.1

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	04-Aug-2009	1487.37	1234.08	+253.29

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4680.50	( -0.66 %)	-30.90
		1	2	3
Resistance		4727.10	4773.70	4815.95
Support		4638.25	4596.00	4549.40

	15830.98		( -0.59 %)	-93.25
			1	2	3
Resistance			15989.25	16147.52	16292.58
Support			15685.92	15540.86	15382.59

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,320.19. Up by 33.63 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,005.65. Up by 3.02 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,011.31. Up by 2.70 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 47.73/74 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Monday's close of 47.635/645.

Interesting findings on web:
Stocks ended a choppy session higher Tuesday as a better-than-expected housing market report helped investors extend the recent rally, leaving Wall Street at more than nine-month highs.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ending at its highest point since Nov. 4. The S&P 500 (SPX) also ending at the highest point since November.

The S&P 500 climbed today to 0.1 point below its close on Nov. 4, the day President Barack Obama was elected.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) ending at its highest point since Oct. 1.

Bank and airline stocks were among the day's bright spots, while investors sold tech, materials and energy stocks.

"It's been a pleasant rally, and with near-record amounts of cash in money market funds, there's fuel to move it higher," said Rob Lutts, portfolio manager at Cabot Money Management.

Lutts said that investors are unwilling to accept low-yielding investments such as bonds, and the demand for better returns should keep lifting stocks.

The S&P 500 now stands 48% above the closing lows from March 9, a 12-year bottom. But after such a big run, stocks could see a short-term pullback before moving higher, said Alan Lancz, director of Lancz Global. Worries about Friday's jobs report could provide a catalyst for some selling. Beyond that, he said he thinks stocks will continue to rise through the summer.

Global equity investors who follow the Wall Street axiom to "sell in May and go away" are missing out on the biggest gains in at least four decades. The MSCI World Index climbed 19 percent from May 1 through yesterday, the steepest advance for that period in the 23-country measure's history stretching back to 1970, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The day's economic news was mixed, with a housing report showing improvement and a consumer income and spending report showing weakness.

The pending home sales index, from the National Association of Realtors, rose 3.6% in June versus forecasts for a rise of 0.7%. It was the fifth straight month of gain, the first time that's happened since 2003. Pending home sales rose a revised 0.8% in the previous month.

Personal income fell 1.3% in June, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday morning. That was worse than the 1% decline economists were expecting, according to a Briefing.com survey, and much worse than the previous month, when income surged on government stimulus efforts. Personal spending rose 0.4% in June, after a 0.1% increase in May. Economists thought it would rise 0.3%.

A separate report showed consumer bankruptcies soared 34% to a more than 3-1/2 year high versus a year ago, according to a report from the American Bankruptcy Institute.

One day after U.S. automakers reported July auto sales that improved from June levels, Toyota Motor (TM) reported a smaller-than-expected quarterly loss and said it expects smaller losses for the full year.

Homebuilder D.R. Horton (DHI, Fortune 500) reported a fiscal third-quarter loss that was narrower than what analysts were expecting.

Swiss bank UBS (UBS) reported a big quarterly loss that was worse than what analysts were expecting, as wealthy clients took a step back amid an ongoing tax dispute with the United States.

Caterpillar Inc. rallied 6.1 percent for the best gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average after the maker of bulldozers said earnings may reach $10 a share by 2012 and the National Association of Realtors said pending home sales increased for a fifth month.

Wells Fargo & Co. and Bank of America Corp. helped lead financial shares to the best advance among 10 groups.

JPMorgan contributing the most to the advance with gains of 1.5 percent.

MBIA Inc., the bond insurer that's slumped 89 percent over the past two years, climbing 29 percent to $5.75.

PPL Corp. had the biggest loss in the S&P 500. The shares slid 13 percent to $29.50 after the owner of Pennsylvania's second-biggest utility reported a second-quarter loss and cut its 2010 earnings forecast on waning demand for power.

Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. climbed the most in eight months, adding 10 percent to $33.60. The U.S. provider of consulting and computer services projected earnings that exceeded analysts' estimates on increased demand.

Goldman Sachs [GS 165.17 1.07 (+0.65%) ] was also among the handful of gainers in the banking sector following a report in the New York Post that management has told employees to avoid any big-ticket purchases to avoid any perception that the bank is "living high on the hog" amid allegations that it played a key role in creating the current financial crisis.

General Electric shares [GE 13.82 0.10 (+0.73%) ] skidded after the conglomerate said it has agreed to pay $50 million to the SEC to settle accounting-fraud charges. The company, also the parent of CNBC, neither admitted nor denied wrongdoing.

Autos are expected to be back in the news as the House approved another $2 billion for the "Cash for Clunkers" program and the measure now moves to the Senate for a vote by the end of the week. Senate Democrats are having a hard time shoring up Republican support.

Ford [F 8.30 -0.03 (-0.36%) ] added to their gains from Monday, when the automaker reported its first positive sales report in two years, helped by the "Clunkers" program.

American depositary shares of Toyota [TM 86.66 -0.53 (-0.61%) ] fell, even as the Japanese automaker slashed its projected loss for the full year.

EBay's [EBAY 21.77 -0.27 (-1.23%) ] shares fell after an outage affecting its PayPal service, which took it down for about an hour yesterday. The company blames the outage on "internal" problems.

In this morning's earnings, CVS Caremark [CVS 33.98 -0.02 (-0.06%) ] reported its profit rose and raised its outlook.

Duke Energy [DUK 15.58 0.01 (+0.06%) ] reported its profit took a hit in the latest quarter from the ebb in oil prices.

Travelers [TRV 46.26 1.24 (+2.75%).

An index of real-estate companies added 5.1 percent, led by Apartment Investment & Management Co.

In deals news, PepsiCo (PEP, Fortune 500) said it will buy its bottlers in a cash-and-stock deal worth $7.8 billion, improving on an earlier $6 billion bid. Shares gained 5.1%.

After the close Tuesday, Dow component Kraft Foods (KFT, Fortune 500) reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and also lifted its 2009 earnings forecast.

Valuation Watch

The valuation of the S&P 500 rose to about 17.4 times its companies' earnings over the past 12 months, the highest in almost a year. Since reaching a 12-year low of 676.53 on March 9, the S&P 500 has climbed 49 percent, the steepest rally since the 1930s. Its 14-day relative strength index rose to almost 76 today, the highest since October 2006.

An RSI above 70 is typically a sell signal to technical analysts.

Per-share earnings have beaten estimates at three-quarters of the 397 companies in the S&P 500 that released second-quarter results since June 17, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Companies in the S&P 500 are still headed for a record eighth consecutive drop in quarterly profits. Per-share earnings have tumbled 32 percent on average. Analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg predict a 31 percent drop in the second quarter and a 22 percent third-quarter decline. While earnings are falling, results have surpassed projections by an average 9.6 percent.

'Bullish Market'

The S&P 500 will climb at least 10 percent more this year, Ralph Acampora said. Acampora retired as one of Wall Street's best-known technical analysts in 2007 and went back to work managing money this year at Geneva-based Altaira Wealth Management.

"Any move above 1,000 will just reinforce this bullish market that's unfolding," he said.

Stock Market Runs With Aging Bulls

What might be the sequel to the surprise summer hit: The Incredible Rising Stock Market?

At 1005.65, the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index is nearly 50% above its March low. The potency of the surge caught just about everyone off-guard. Yet the rally shouldn't be that surprising, as stock markets nearly always rebound when investors see an end to a recession. The big question is what happens after that initial surge.

Excluding the current downturn, there have been seven recessions since 1960. In the 12 months from the midpoints of those contractions, the S&P 500 rose a solid 17% on average. But in the following 12-month period, gains were harder to come by, with the S&P 500 adding only an extra 4% on average.

What does this history tell us? If the recession ended in June -- and most economists predict gross domestic product will grow in the third quarter -- the midpoint of this downturn would be September last year. In the 10 months since then, the S&P 500 is actually down by around 14%. So it wouldn't be surprising if the market rallied further from here. And with the Federal Reserve still intervening heavily to hold down borrowing costs and the government spending money hand over fist, few want to bet against this bull run.

However, every post-recession period is different, and this one still looks nasty enough to cause disappointment on fundamentals.

Indeed, the bulls' weakest point is their reliance on the earnings rebound predicted by Wall Street analysts. The S&P 500 is trading at 16.8 times consensus 2009 earnings, above its level at the market peak in October 2007. That is why the bull case says investors need to look even further forward, at 2010 forecasts, which gets the multiple down to 13.3 times.

But that distant-hope scenario has its shortcomings. Take a stock like Home Depot, trading at 16.8 times consensus fiscal 2011 earnings, very high for a company facing intense competition and exposed to the troubled housing market.

Implicit in the bull case is the belief that the government just has to carry the economy until private actors are ready to take up the slack. One problem: The amount of government intervention has been so immense that the private sector probably can't take over anytime soon.

Of course, the Fed and the Obama administration can always keep printing and spending, but those actions in themselves could hurt stocks, as they cause misallocation of capital and stoke fears about the deficit and inflation.

Japan's experience shouldn't be tossed out. After its bubble burst, the country's stock market often rallied on recovery hopes, only to fall back hard. That message shouldn't get lost in translation as investors wonder what's next for U.S. stocks.

Oil & Gold:

U.S. light crude oil for September delivery fell 16 cents to settle at $70.42 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have been climbing of late on bets that a global economic recovery will increase demand for raw materials.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $10.90 to settle at $969.70 an ounce.

Bonds:

Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.68% from 3.63% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

What to expect:

Wednesday brings a number of economic reports, including the July reading on private-sector employment from payroll services firm ADP and the Institute for Supply Management's services sector index. Dow component Procter & Gamble (PG, Fortune 500) reports quarterly results in the morning.

Investors are eager to hear from Cisco [CSCO 22.37 -0.201 (-0.89%) ] on Wednesday. The maker of routers and networking gear is widely considered a barometer for corporate tech spending.

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; Challenger, ADP reports on jobs; ISM services index; factory orders; weekly oil inventories; Earnings from P&G, Cisco, News Corp. and Prudential.

THURSDAY: Chain-store sales; weekly jobless claims; Earnings from Sirius XM, Unilever.

FRIDAY: July jobs report; consumer credit; Earnings from Liberty Media.

Asia:

Tokyo stocks were down slightly Wednesday morning as investors locked profits from year-to-date highs in recent rallies, erasing early gains, while sentiment remained positive after upbeat U.S. home sales data added to signs of an economic recovery.

Murata Manufacturing Co. (6981) shares continued their descent Wednesday morning, at one point down 40 yen at 4,410 yen.

Namco Bandai Holdings Inc. (7832) shares fell sharply Wednesday, losing 12% to hit 942 yen at one point, after the firm lowered its fiscal 2009 earnings outlook Tuesday evening.

Toyota falls after Q1 loss, smaller annual loss forecast.

Fast Retailing declines after July sales fall.

Market likely pausing after rally, earnings season peaks.

Focus turns to U.S. jobs data on Wed, Fri.

South Korea's KOSPI was also flat. POSCO shares fell 0.59 percent after Citigroup in a report on Tuesday downgraded the world's No.6 steelmaker to "hold" from "buy" and slashed its target price by 7.8 percent.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.2 percent to 113.20 as of 11:46 a.m. in Tokyo. Before today, the gauge had risen on all buttwo days since July 14 amid earnings reports that beat analyst estimates. The measure's 14-day relative strength index is at 75, above the 70 level some traders use as a sell signal.

China's Shanghai Composite Index fell half a percent as profit-taking surfaced. Steel makers led the losses with Baoshan Iron & Steel down 3.2 percent and Maanshan Iron & Steel down 3.6 percent.

HSI 20967.93 +171.5 +0.82% (08.26 AM IST)

Hong Kong shares were mixed early Wednesday, with energy producers higher as crude-oil prices stayed above $71 a barrel. HSBC Holdings extended gains after its half-yearly results, but many other Hong Kong-listed banks fell further after Tuesday's decline, amid concerns Chinese regulators may tighten rules on capital holdings. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.4% to 20,874.13, with HSBC /quotes/comstock/22h!e:5 (HK:5 84.30, +1.15, +1.38%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 54.41, -0.07, -0.13%) up 1%, and Cnooc Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:883 (HK:883 10.86, +0.16, +1.49%) quotes/comstock/13*!ceo/quotes/nls/ceo (CEO 142.04, +1.71, +1.22%) rising 1.1%. But Bank of China Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:3988 (HK:3988 3.77, -0.03, -0.79%) fell 0.8% and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China /quotes/comstock/22h!e:1398 (HK:1398 5.39, -0.02, -0.37%) lost 0.4%, tracking their declines in Shanghai, where BOC fell 1.5% and ICBC dropped 1.1%. The Shanghai Composite was down 0.9% to 3,439.33 in early trade. Hong Kong's Hang Seng China Enterprises Index was down 0.1%.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong's de facto central bank, on Monday said that it has granted a banking license to HDFC Bank, the fourth-largest bank in India.

The granting of this banking license brought the number of licensed banks in the special administrative region to 146. The license came into effect on Monday.

India-listed HDFC Bank, which was incorporated in India in 1994, provides a range of banking and financial services including commercial banking and treasury operations. The lender has a network of 1,412 branches and 3,295 automated teller machines in 528 cities.

Shanghai Airlines Co Ltd<600591>, the city's second-largest carrier, Tuesday said it expected a net loss for the first half of this year because of the poor performance of its cargo unit, the Shanghai Daily reported.

INVESTMENT VIEW
Sujana Towers-Better Q3 Numbers, Growing Opportunities

BSE 532887

Transmission and Telecom Tower manufacturer, EPC contractor reported Revenues of Rs 175 crore with after tax profits of Rs 6.42 crore. This is the third consecutive quarter of Revenue and Profit growth for the company, with stand-alone EPS for Q3 working out to Rs 1.55. On an annual basis, Sujana could turn in an EPS of Rs 5 which would give the stock target of Rs 40-50 in a year's time.

The opportunity ahead is mind boggling:

Substantial investments in the Power T&D Sector to spur growth of EPC players:

The Eleventh Plan has earmarked Rs1,40,000 cr and Rs 3,09,000 cr for the T&D Segments, respectively, which translates into an immense opportunity for the players in the Segment over the next three years.

Further, with Infrastructure remaining the key focus area to achieve economic recovery, we expect execution of the power projects to gain momentum over the last three years of the Plan period which would generate more orders for the T&D players.

Sujana is likely to bag more orders from PGCIL, which has plans to spend around Rs20,000cr on transmission lines during FY2010-12.

Turning into a supplier for Bhel and Telecom Sectors a major positive:

BSNL will shortly allot it a fresh tender for Rs 5,000 cr. Sujana also plans to enter tracking, signaling and platform construction works in the Railway Segment.

Finally capital infusion

High interest outgo is eating into Sujana's bottom line and the promoters have recently resolved to put in Rs 44 crore into the business. This should make the capital base much more stronger for Sujana Towers.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 4th Aug 2009

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS

RESISTANCE

4742

4787

4831

SUPPORT

4704

4691

4645

4601

4556

4521

Buy MAHINDRA LIFESPACE;HCL INFO

 

INTRADAY calls for 4th Aug 2009
+ve Sector,Script : Fertlizers Pirhealth,Aptech
Buy BHEL-2346 for a target 2365-2380 stop loss 2330
Buy APIL-542 for a target 559 stop loss 538
Buy Prajind-99 for a target 105 stop loss 96
Buy Nucleus-97 for a target 105 stop loss 94

 

Expected Breakout
Buy RIL-2017 above 2030 for a target 2080 stop loss 2010

 

POSITIONAL
Buy Mahlife-328 for a target 460 stop loss 310
Buy ZEEL-200 for a target 227 stop loss 193
Buy Optocir-185 for a target 230 stop loss 177
Buy DCW-16 for a target 19 stop loss 15.10

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bharat Forge, Patni, Mphasis, TataMotors, ABAN, Aurobindo Pharms, DCHL, Bhushan Steel, Jindal Saw and Hindalco.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Divi Lab, Suzlon, Sun Pharma, EKC, BRFL,Titan Inds, Chambal Fert, Patel Eng, IOC and Union Bank Of India.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.  

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Rally may continue up to 4740-4742 zone for time being.

Support at 4691 & 4704 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4645-4647 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4601-4603 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 4556-4558 zone. Stop Loss at 4512-4514 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4785-4787 zone can take it up to 4829-4831 zone. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4473 level, it can zoom up to 4988 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX: 
 Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors: 
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 16861 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15065 level for your long positions too.
 
POSTIONAL  BUY:
Buy MAHINDRA LIFESPACE DEVELOPERS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 323 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 351 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 374 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 300 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy HCL INFOSYSTEMS (NSE Cash) 

Uptrend to continue.

Mild sell-off up to 121 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 125 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 128 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 118 level for your long positions too.

 

Global Cues & Rupee 
 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,286.56. Up by 114.95 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,002.63. Up by 15.15 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,008.61. Up by 30.11 points.

The partially convertible rupee INR=IN ended at 47.635/645 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 47.93/95.

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	03-Aug-2009	1748.87	1401.86	347.01

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	03-Aug-2009	884.72	823.71	61.01

 

 Interesting findings on web:
On Monday, at least, the market continued on its merry way higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 114 points, or 1.2%, to finish at 9,286, its highest close since Oct. 4. The S&P 500 index (SPX) rose 15 points, or 1.5%, to 1,002, also its highest close since Nov. 4. The Nasdaq Composite (RIXF) rose 30 points, or 1.5%, to 2,008, its highest close since Oct. 1.

In the past, stocks sometimes have paused in their gains when indexes approached big, round numbers such as 1000, 2000 or 9000. Investors have seized on the events as a chance to sell some stocks, take some profits and re-evaluate. This time, the indexes powered through those levels without hesitation, a sign of how robust the rally has been.

The market received a boost from upbeat global reports that fueled hopes for the economy. Investors also cheered early July vehicle sales figures from auto makers, with hopes raised by the government's Cash for Clunkers program. Shares of Ford Motor Co. (F) rose 7% after it announced its first sales increase in almost two years.

In July, Ford shares rallied 32%. Toyota (TM) gained more than 11%, Honda ( HMC) rose 17%, Nissan (NSANY) gained 20%, Daimler AG (DAI) was up 28%.

Stocks jumped more than a percent to kick the week off as positive data on manufacturing and the auto industry boosted optimism about the economy's direction. The S&P 500 closed above 1,000 for the first time since November and is now up almost 48% from its low point during the financial crisis in March.

Stocks powered their way to two new milestones Monday amid a growing belief that the recession is over and better days lie ahead.

Eleven days after the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassed 9000, Standard & Poor's 500-stock index broke through 1000, and the Nasdaq Composite Index passed 2000. All three major U.S. indexes now stand at their highest levels since autumn, as do the benchmark indexes of Britain, Germany and France, which also posted sharp gains Monday.

The good news Monday included better-than-expected surveys of manufacturing activity in the U.S., Britain and China, stronger-than-expected U.S. construction data, Ford Motor's first monthly U.S. sales increase in nearly two years and encouraging profit reports from British banks HSBC Holdings and Barclays.

Investors also welcomed a comment from former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on a Sunday television news show that he is "pretty sure we've already seen the bottom" of the recession.

The Institute for Supply Management showed the sector shrank at a slower pace in July. The ISM index came in at 48.9, up from 44.8 in June, beating expectations. New orders and production both hit their highest readings since 2007 but jobs and inventories fell again. The numbers left no doubt about the impact of the recession: manufacturing fell at an annual rate of 13% for the first half of 2009.

Market sentiment was also underpinned by reassuring bank results from Europe.

Shares of natural resource companies gained.

Higher auto sales at Ford ( F - news - people ) also encouraged investors. The car maker reported an increase of 2.3% in July sales, compared with last year. Analysts had expected a decline. General Motors ( GMGMQ.PK - news - people ) and Chrysler both saw sales fall substantially, although the government's "Cash For Clunkers" program has been wildly successful. Ford shares gained 4.1% in regular trading.

Ford's Sales Rise as GM, Toyota Pare Declines on Clunkers Cash

Ford Motor Co.'s July U.S. sales rose 2.3 percent while General Motors Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. pared declines as the government's so-called cash-for-clunkers incentive stoked the strongest demand for new autos this year.

In finance, Bank of America ( BAC - news - people ) agreed to settle SEC charges that the bank lied to investors about bonuses paid by investment bank Merrill Lynch, which BofA bought at the start of the year. As part of the settlement the bank will pay $33 million, not much of a burden considering its equity was last valued at $255 billion. Shares gained 3.6%.

The strongest sectors were those tied to economic-recovery hopes, with manufacturing stocks up 3.5%, financials up 2.7%, and energy stocks up 2.3%.

Aluminum-maker Alcoa jumped 6% amid optimism about economic prospects.

Among the Monday gainers in the S&P 500's financial sector were regional banks KeyCorp, which climbed 13.5%, and Zions Bancorp, which rose 4.5%. Life insurers also bolstered the sector, as Principal Financial Group jumped 6.9% and Lincoln National rose 5.5%.

One of the things that helped the stock bounce back was news that Bank of America has hired Sallie Krawcheck, the formerCFO of Citigroup, to lead its global wealth and investment-management unit, as a prelude to finding a successor to CEO Ken Lewis.

And Goldman Sachs shares rose 0.5 percent despite a report that showed the investment bank's reputation has been damaged, among both the general public and financially sophisticated Americans.

American depositary shares of UBS gained 4.9 percent amid the likelihood that the Swiss bank won't pay a fine to settle its dispute with the US government over Americans suspected of trying to evade taxes by using Swiss accounts.

CIT Group [CIT  1.03    0.16  (+18.39%)   ] jumped 18 percent following news that the lender has raised the offering price of on its debt repurchase, offering to pay $875 in cash for every $1,000 in senior notes due Aug. 17, from $825. The company also said it has already received enough offers to meet the minimum requirements of the program.

AIG shares [AIG  13.60    0.46  (+3.5%)   ] rose 3.5 percent following news that the insurer has chosen former MetLife CEO Robert Benmosche as its chief executive.

Apple [AAPL  166.44    3.05  (+1.87%)   ] and Google [GOOG  451.73    8.68  (+1.96%)   ] were in the spotlight this morning after Google CEO Eric Schmidt resigned from Apple's board.

Dow component 3M [MMM  72.14    1.62  (+2.3%)] gained 2.3 percent after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutral."

And IBM [IBM  119.92    1.99  (+1.69%)] rose 1.7 percent after Bernstein raised its price target on the stock.

In the energy sector, Massey Energy, Peabody Energy, Denbury Resources and Nabors Industries all rose at least 6% as crude oil futures popped above $72 a barrel to their highest level since June 30.

Berkshire Reaches $100,000 a Share, Hitting Eight-Month High

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. reached $100,000 a share for the first time since January as its derivative bets and holdings in firms including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co. gained in value.

Bank of America Shuffles Managers, Settles SEC's Merrill Claims

Bank of America Corp., taking steps to prepare for Kenneth Lewis's succession as chief executive officer, shuffled senior management and settled U.S. claims it misled investors while buying Merrill Lynch & Co.

Barclays Capital to Hire as Many as 1,000 Workers, Diamond Says

Barclays Plc, the U.K.'s second-biggest lender, plans to hire as many as 1,000 people, including investment bankers at its Barclays Capital unit, by the end of the year to compete in mergers advice and share sales.

The biggest winner today among major stock groups in the S&P 500: basic materials, which includes commodity producers.

The average materials stock shot up 3.5% as prices of copper, nickel, oil and other commodities surged. U.S. Steel jumped $3.28, or 8.2%, to $43.03; Du Pont gained 97 cents, or 3.1%, to $31.90.

"We think we have seen the worst of the financial crisis and the recession," said Richard Sichel, who helps oversee $1.3 billion as chief investment officer of Philadelphia Trust Co.

Mr. Sichel said some kind of disappointing news will no doubt arrive in the coming weeks. Given their big advance in such a short period, he said, stocks are overdue for a pullback, but he added that he thinks the market then will resume its rise.

Although diehard skeptics continued to warn the economy still isn't out of the woods and stocks could suffer more than the bulls believe, a growing number of investors have been so impressed by the economic and corporate news that they have set aside their doubts.

While many in the market say U.S. stocks are due for a breather after scoring their best July in 12 years, the market can at least count on favorable odds for another month of gains in August.

The market, as measured by the broad S&P 500 index, has advanced in August 60% of the time in the 81 years since 1927, for an average gain of 4%, according to Standard & Poors. And since 1999, August has brought gains seven times out of 10.

One caveat for market analysts, however, is that the market has continued its powerful rally through the summer so far.

"The stock market appears slightly overbought having moved a little too far, too fast over the last month," said Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at Davidson Companies.

In July, the Dow rallied 8.6% to mark its best monthly gain since Oct. 2002 and its best July since 1989. The S&P 500 rose 7.4% for the month, its best July since 1997, and the Nasdaq gained 7.8%.

And since hitting lows in March, the S&P 500 has rallied a whopping 50%.

These figures, and especially the sharp gains seen in July, have a number of market strategists say stocks are overdue for a breather this month.

"Suffice it to say that stocks are overdue for a rest, although the 'overbought' condition can remain for quite some time before the markets finally take a breather," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in a note.

For Marc Pado, market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, "the market may start to struggle by late August."

August in perspective

Since World War II, August months have tended to bring gains but not by as much as in other months of the year, according to RDM Financial. Since 1945, August has returned 0.4%, placing it 10th among the 12 months of the year.

"However, when the economy is rebounding, then the market has tended to put in a much stronger performance [in August]," said Michael Sheldon, market strategist at RDM.

Many market observers believe that back in March, the market has hit its lows of the bear market that followed the financial crisis. And on the 14 occasions that have followed bear-market bottoms since 1932, the S&P 500 has risen 10 out of 14 times in August for an average gain of 1.2%.

"Past performance is never 100% guarantee of returns in the future," Sheldon said. "But the outlook for August continues to be more positive than some would think," he said.

Oil, Dollar & Commodities:

Crude oil gained over 3% Monday to top $71 a barrel as commodities traders took heart at the improving manufacturing and auto sales data.

A weak U.S. dollar also helped oil to hit its highest level since mid-June. The greenback is now at its lowest point this year.

In hopes of recovering lost ground, some investors have jumped into commodities as well as stocks. Copper for August delivery surged 4.4% Monday in New York, now up more than 118% from its December low. Crude-oil futures rose 3% to $71.58, up 13% in three trading days and 60% for 2009.

Dollar's Pain Is Stock's Gain

Meanwhile, the dollar index continued to slump, also to levels not seen since last fall. It was trading at 77.59, its lowest level since Sept. 29. As the dollar fell, commodities were fired up with big gains in natural gas, copper, corn and soybeans. Oil was also higher, rising 3 percent to $71.58 per gallon.

When it came to stocks, the commodities-driven materials shares Monday were the best performers, up 3.5 percent, while financials were 2.7 percent higher.

The gains in commodities since early July have been stunning. Copper rose 28 percent since July 8; gasoline gained 26 percent; oil is up 19 percent; natural gas jumped 19 percent, and platinum increased 13 percent.

Stock markets around the world have rallied right along. India is at a 14-month high; China, Mexico and Korea are at 12-month highs, and Brazil, Hong Kong and Singapore are at 11-month highs. 

What to expect:

Tuesday's data includes personal income and spending at 8:30 a.m. and pending home sales for June at 10 a.m. Earnings reports are expected from Toyota, UBS, Archer Daniels Midland, CVS Caremark, D.R. Horton, Duke Energy, Rowan, Cognizant, and PPL. After the bell, Kraft Foods, Whole Foods and Electronic Arts report.

Caterpillar management conducts a second day of its annual meeting with analysts and investors, via web cast. Ford unveils a new version of its once best-selling Taurus.

In Washington, the Senate Banking Committee holds a hearing on banking supervision at 9:30 a.m. Witnesses include FDIC chair Sheila Bair and Fed Gov. Daniel Troll.

TUESDAY: Personal income/spending; pending-home sales; Earnings from Kraft.

WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; Challenger, ADP reports on jobs; ISM services index; factory orders; weekly oil inventories; Earnings from P&G, Cisco, News Corp. and Prudential.

THURSDAY: Chain-store sales; weekly jobless claims; Earnings from Sirius XM, Unilever.

FRIDAY: July jobs report; consumer credit; Earnings from Liberty Media.

Asia:

Asian bourses rose in morning trade Tuesday after Japan's Panasonic Corp narrowed its first-half loss forecast, positive US manufacturing reports and higher commodity prices.

The US manufacturing sector continued to shrink in July but at a slower pace than in June.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 48.9 in July from 44.8 in June, beating economists' expectations. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said in a report that trading sentiment across Asia might be lifted today by the overnight performance on Wall Street.

The US key equity indices rose between 1.3% and 1.5% at the closing bell buoyed by mainly commodity and financial stocks, and improved sentiment that the recession could be over.

Meanwhile, HwangDBS noted that local investors' interest might be on plantation stocks as crude palm oil's 3-month futures increased 4.8% to RM2,295 per tonne.

"Our FBM KLCI is likely to climb further before meeting its resistance level of 1,190 as investors take cue from the foreign boys," it said.

The FBM KLCI was up 9.69 points to 1,181 at mid morning trade while Singapore's Straits Times Index rose 0.46% to 2,693.91.

Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.10% to 10,466.78 while Seoul's Kospi Index was up 1.02% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index added 1.52% to 21,123.29.

At Bursa Malaysia, 306 counters were up, 42 were down while 84 were traded unchanged. There were 151.8 million shares done at a total value of RM143.1 million.

Top gainers Pacific Mas added 21 sen to RM3.69, Dutch Lady rose 20 sen to RM11.50, BAT was up 16 sen to RM47.46 and MISC increased 10 sen to RM8.90.

Among the heavyweights, Maybank was up 5 sen to RM6.73. BCHB added 4 sen to RM10.70 and Tenaga rose 2 sen to RM8.15.

KLK added 14 sen to RM12.66, Sime rose 10 sen to RM8.33, Ramunia was 1 sen higher at 61.5 sen and AirAsia slipped 6 sen to RM1.48.

Nymex crude oil in electronic trade was down 16 cents to US$71.42 per barrel.

Spot gold rose 36 cents to US$957.10 per ounce.

The ringgit was quoted at 3.4892 to the US dollar.

Tokyo stocks treaded water at high levels Tuesday morning, with the Nikkei Stock average maintaining gains of 100-plus points.

The benchmark Nikkei .N225 gained 1.1 percent or 110.14 points to 10,462.61, after briefly rising as far as 10,479.19, its highest level since Oct. 6.

The broader Topix added 1 percent to 967.07.

Shares in Sumitomo Realty & Development Co. (8830) rose for the fourth straight trading day Tuesday morning, briefly climbing 76 yen to a year-to-date high of 2,055 yen.

NTT Corp. (9432) shares bounced back Tuesday morning, opening bid-only before climbing 3.7% to 3,940 yen.

HSI 20928.9 +121.64 +0.58% (08.33 AM IST).

Hong Kong shares extended gains Tuesday, as HSBC Holdings stock soared more than 7% a day after the banking giant reported better-than-expected first-half results. The Hang Seng Index rose 1.6% to 21,148.35, as index heavyweight HSBC /quotes/comstock/22h!e:5 (HK:5 82.90, +5.20, +6.69%) /quotes/comstock/13*!hbc/quotes/nls/hbc (HBC 55.05, +0.55, +1.01%) soared 7.6%. Shares of Hang Seng Bank Ltd. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:11 (HK:11 121.50, -3.20, -2.56%)/quotes/comstock/11i!hsngy (HSNG.Y 16.30, -0.05, -0.31%) , however, slipped 0.2% after its half-yearly results fell short of expectations. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index advanced 0.8% to 12,472.45.

Chinese stocks opened higher on Tuesday morning, tracking gains from the previous closing.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 3,477.11 points, up 0.42% or 14.52 points from the previous closing.

The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.49% or 67.92 points higher at 13,924.92 points.

Iron Ore Poised to Drop as China Imports Slow, Swaps Indicate. 
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Unitech: A Growing Uneasy Feeling

The management somehow never provides a schedule of annual execution only what has commenced. A year later it could be sitting on 7 mn sq feet of unsold inventory, 17 mn or 30 mn sq feet, but this is the call the investor has to take. Inspite of 2 QIPs at Rs 38 and Rs 80, the corporate may sink again next year.

Real estate company Unitech Ltd has posted nearly 63 per cent fall in its consolidated net profit for the first quarter ended June 2009, at Rs 158 crore. The slowdown in demand for real estate coupled with the shift in focus towards low and middle-income housing led to the drop in profits on a year-on-year basis.

The total income during the quarter stood at Rs 548.22 crore, 48 per cent lower than the year-ago period.

"During the quarter, the company continued with its strategy of focusing on affordable housing. The company till date has launched approximately 17 million sq. ft, mostly in this segment, and it has sold nearly seven million sq. ft. in different cities. Unitech is well on its course to achieve the targeted launch of 30 million sq. ft of projects during the current financial year," said Mr Sanjay Chandra, Managing Director, Unitech Ltd.

During the quarter, the company had outlined plans to launch projects with units starting at Rs 10 lakh under the brand UniHomes. The company had reserves and surplus of Rs 6,409 crore as of June 2009. Total loan outstanding was Rs 8,262 crore, at the end of the quarter, and less than Rs 7,000 crore by July end. It had Rs 625 crore in cash and bank balance as of June 30. At the end of the quarter, 37.05 per cent promoter holding was pledged.

Unitech had recently raised $900 million through two QIPs.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381