Market Outlook for 25th June 2009

Intraday Calls 25th Jun 2009
BUY PTC-93 for a target 105 stop loss 90
BUY EDUcomp-3421 for a target 3556 stop loss 3400

BUY Jpassociates-213 for a target 225 stop loss 208
BUY CenturyTxt-392 for a target 415 stop loss 387

BUY Neyveli-128 for a target 139 stop loss 125 [positional]
BUY Welguj-209 for a target 216-219 stop loss 205
[yesterday's BTST] [Positional target 237+++ with sl 200]
BUY LICHousing-636 for a target 780 stop loss 610

 

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS

SUPPORT

4283

4243

4206

4193

4156

RESISTANCE

4317

4328

4355
4367

4405

BUY TORRENT POWER,GIC HOUSING FIN,TRIVENI ENGG

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Indus Ind Bank, LIC Housing Finance, GDL, Tech M, IDBI, Edu Comp, Central bank, Aurobindo Ph, Gt Off Shore & Mphasis. 

And this is list of 10  Weak future:

Amtek Auto, CESC, Ge Ship, Nation Alum, Hdil, Sterlin Bio, Bharat Forge, Orchid Chem, Jet Airways & TCS. 
Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4283 level, expect profit booking up to 4243-4245 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4206-4208 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4315-4317 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue up to 4328 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 4353-4355 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4365-4367 zone, can take it up to 4403-4405 zone and supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4193-4195 zone. Stop Loss at 4156-4158 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Already SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Lower opening expected. Uptrend may continue. 

Short-Term Investors: 
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

Already SL triggered. 
 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Buy TORRENT POWER (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.

Ongoing rally may continue up to 1 day. Profit booking may start thereafter, and should continue up to 1 week. 

Good for 1 Month Holding.

Profit booking may start again, from 3 Months to 1 Year holding.
 
Buy GIC HOUSING FINA (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.

Rally may continue up to 1 day, 1 week & 1 Month.

Profit booking will start within 3 months.

Thereafter rally should continue for 1 year.
 
Buy TRIVENI ENGG (NSE Cash) 
Good for 1 Month Holding.

Ongoing rally may continue up to 1 day. Profit booking may start thereafter, and should continue up to 1 week. 

Profit booking may start again, from 3 Months to 1 Year holding.
 

 

SPOT LEVELS

	4292.95	( 1.08 %)	45.95
		1	2	3
Resistance		4327.22	4361.48	4415.97
Support		4238.47	4183.98	4149.72

	14422.73		( 0.69 %)	98.72
			1	2	3
Resistance			14532.69	14642.66	14805.49
Support			14259.89	14097.06	13987.09

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	24-Jun-2009	1551.93	2343.78	-791.85

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	24-Jun-2009	1661.94	933.68	728.26

 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,299.86. Down by 23.05 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 900.94. Up by 5.84 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,792.34. Up by 27.42 points.

We did't get rupee update yet. 

Mphasis: Counting On The Strength Of HP

 
The company is maintaining its business mix ratio of 2:1:1 in its Applications, BPO and ITO services respectively. In the applications segment nearly 34% is the form application maintenance and the 66% is in the form of applications development.

In the ITO business the back office jobs are mainly done by MphasiS and the front office job is mainly in the hands of the EDS India Ltd.

The acquisition from the EDS has helped MphasiS to start its ITO space. After the acquisition of EDS by HP, a major chunk of the solutions based projects are bound to go for MphasiS and the projects coming from the HP might have a major competition from the EDS and HP India. 

The main drivers of consolidation in the sector are of two reasons like cost and the better solution. Company has expressed its view that the vendor consolidation may increase because of this bleak economic scenario and the companies are going to reap over the wallet sharing.

The company is increasing the sales expenses as the market is still uncertain. Thus the company is going to show a marginal increase in the SGA expenses.

The company may see the losses in the hedging because of forex forward covers that they have done in the past period.

From the BPO business the company is still facing high attrition rates and the absentees. But the company is trying to decrease its buffer levels in the BPO.

As of now the company is not going to have any layoffs and the salary cuts. The company is mainly focusing on the productivity plans and the planning cycles.

The currency exposure for the revenues are in the order of 8% to 9% in INR, 80% to 82% in USD and 8 to 10% from the other currencies.

Company expressed a view that the pipeline of the order book is healthy.

Cash in hand is $60mn and planning cycle for the Capex is larger because of the decrease in the hiring.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 24th June 2009

INTRADAY TRADERS

+ve Sector, Scripts :IDBI and IDFC, Essor oil
BUY RPL-125 for a target 129-131 stop loss 122
BUY IndianBnk-137 for a target 141 stop loss 135

BUY IndusInd-89 for a target 94 loss 187
BUY IFCI-53 for a target 56-58 stop loss 51

BUY IRB-148 above 150 for a target 155 stop loss 148
BUY GDL-108 above 111 for a target 118 stop loss 109

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Indus Ind Bank, GDL, Tech M, M Phasis, Central Bank, Gt Off Shore, IDBI, LIC Housing Finance, Yes Bank & Corporation Bank. 

And this is list of 10  Weak future:

Sterlin Bio, Ge Ship, DLF, H Dil, Jet Airways, Orchid Chem, TCS, Bhushan Steel, CESC & Aptech T. 
Nifty is in Down Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4235 level, expect profit booking up to 4188-4190 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4143-4145 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4258 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 4285-4287 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4330-4332 zone, can take it up to 4375-4377 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4098-4100 zone. Stop Loss at 4053-4055 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Already SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

Already SL triggered.
 
 POSITIONAL TRADERS

Sell RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 2066 level, then profit booking may start up to 1965 level. Below 1906 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 2066 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 2128 level.
 
Sell RELIANCE INFRASTRUCTURE (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 1254 level, then profit booking may start up to 1193 level. Below 1157 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 1254 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 1292 level.
 
Sell HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 232 level, then profit booking may start up to 220 level. Below 214 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 232 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 238 level.
 
Sell IFCI FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 55 level, then profit booking may start up to 52 level. Below 51 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 55 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 57 level.
 
Sell JAIPRAKASH HYDRO-POWER FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 88 level, then profit booking may start up to 84 level. Below 81 level, expect free fall too. 

 

If crosses 88 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 91 level.
 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,322.91. Down by 16.10 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 895.10. Up by 2.06 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,764.92. Down by 1.27 points.

The partially convertible rupee ended at Rs48.53/55 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of Rs48.62/63.
 
FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	23-Jun-2009	1917.65	2572.62	-654.97

 

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	23-Jun-2009	1701.44	1383.02	318.42

DELIVERY

IVRCL Infra: Why The Negative Cash Flow?

Sell
 
A handful of stocks doubled in the 2 historical days post the Election Results of May 2009, IVRCL Infra was one of them. Clear identification with the State Government, a huge order-book that critically banks upon Road and Water Infra projects handed out by it's home state were the two reasons for this extraordinary surge in share price.

But the large order book of IVRCL Infra is no longer bringing in incrementally large margins, instead they under-score the fact that Bankrupt State Governments can dole out contracts, but do not have the armoury to pay for these projects.

Unlike the Central Government, State entities cannot print cash-hence negative cash flows, increasing size of Receivables and Borrowings is happening at IVRCL.

Something has gotta give-the IVRCL Infra stock is getting a PE of 17 based upon the estimated EPS for FY10. This is double the PE from just a month ago. The stock should ideally quote in the Rs 175 to Rs 200 range.

Continues to focus on its key vertical of water supply and irrigation

IVRCL Infrastructures and Projects (IVRCL) saw 70% of its order inflow in FY09, coming from the core segments of irrigation and water supply. It also has over one-third of its order backlog concentrated in the state of Andhra Pradesh. Management has indicated that the water segment will continue to be a key focus area and expects its project pipeline to pick up soon, post the lull due to elections. The new government is expected to focus on the social sector and this likely means increased spending on water and irrigation, which augurs well for IVRCL.

Earnings growth slow, lower tax rate could swing the numbers

IVRCL's EPS is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 per cent over FY09–11E, which is lower than expected sales growth CAGR of 25 per cent during the same period. This is due to an effective tax rate of 33 per cent being factored in (17.5% in FY09 and 25.6% in FY08). IVRCL continues to take benefit of Section 80 IA based on legal opinion when providing for the full tax rate would be more prudent.

 

Negative cash flows is a worrying factor, maintain Sell

The working capital cycle has consistently expanded from 69 days in FY04 to 143 days in FY09P. This has led to significant negative operating cash flow and, eventually, to multiple equity dilutions and a leveraged balance sheet. A further increase in Working Capital requirements would mean increased funding needs and would impact growth.

Sell.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 23rd June

Headlines : 23 June 2009
  Corporate News Headline
• Jindal Saw has secured orders worth Rs. 10 bn for supplying pipes in both domestic as well as international markets. (BS)
• BHEL has bagged a Rs. 1.05 bn order from IOC for setting up a captive power plant at the latter's Barauni Refinery Complex. (BS)
• ABB India bagged orders worth Rs. 550 mn to provide electrical infrastructure for modernisation of Kolkata airport. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
• The government is planning to hike the price of natural gas produced by ONGC and Oil India by over 17% and index it to inflation rate to help the two firms cut losses on selling fuel below cost. (BS)
• The UK home sellers lowered asking prices in June for the first time in five months as banks scaled back lending and required buyers to stump up bigger deposits. (Bloomberg)
• European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said that there's still a risk that renewed financial turmoil could hamper an economic recovery. (Bloomberg)
 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bajaj Hind, M Phasis, Tech M, Indus Ind Bank, Central Bank, Voltas, IDBI, MRPL, Patni & Aurobindo Pharma.

And this is list of 10  Weak future:

Sterlin Bio, RPL, India Info, H Dil, Orchid Chem, Jet Airways, TCS, BRFL, Reliance & NTDV.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Selling may continue up to 4213-4215 zone for time being.

Hurdles at 4246 & 4268 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4317-4319 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4365-4367 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4414-4416 zone, can take it up to 4463-4465 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4164-4166 zone. Stop Loss at 4115-4117 zone.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Already SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Lower opening expected. Recovery should start. 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

Already SL triggered.
 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Sell MRPL (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 89 level, then profit booking may start up to 85 level. Below 82 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 89 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 92 level.
 
Sell BANK OF BARODA (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 451 level, then profit booking may start up to 429 level. Below 416 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 451 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 465 level.
 
Sell DABUR (I) (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 120 level, then profit booking may start up to 114 level. Below 111 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 120 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 124 level.
 
Sell CHENNAI PETROLEUM FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 184 level, then profit booking may start up to 175 level. Below 170 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 184 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 190 level.
 
Sell WOCKHARDT FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 137 level, then profit booking may start up to 130 level. Below 126 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 137 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 141 level.
 
Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,339.01. Down by 200.72 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 893.04. Down by 28.19 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,766.19. Down by 61.78 points.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 48.62/63 per dollar on yesterday, lower than Friday's close of 48.09/10.
 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4235.25	( -1.82 %)	-78.35
		1	2	3
Resistance		4317.70	4400.15	4448.05
Support		4187.35	4139.45	4057.00

	14326.22		( -1.35 %)	-195.67
			1	2	3
Resistance			14573.16	14820.09	14971.79
Support			14174.53	14022.83	13775.90

PSL Limited: Inefficient Management

BSE 526801; Sell
 
After a recent inter-action with analysts, the consensus view is the management at PSL Limited, is inefficient, backward looking and unable to foresee problems.

This is apparent from Q4 FY09 numbers:

While Revenues showed a quantum jump, net margins declined to roughly 1 per cent making building pipes another trading type of a business with no downward protection for any business exigencies or shaky trading conditions.

The management cast the blame for a poor Q4 on currency losses, the INR Vs Dollar cross and huge rise in Steel costs, suggesting that it built steel sheet inventories at the highest possible point in time.

The management has been unable to spell a clear vision for its Sharjah operations where orders are soft, as also the newly commissioned pipe mill in the USA. Plans for China are unknown as yet.

The corporate carries a sizeable debt of Rs 1000 crore on a Equity of Rs 42 crore.

The Debt is now to be swapped with Equity through a Rs 300 crore QIP which could raise Equity to over Rs 50 crore, another massive dilution.

If current trends persist, PSL FY10 PAT could fall to Rs 60 crore on an even higher Revenue base, with EPS post dilution dropping down to Rs 10-12 from the present Rs 20 per share.

The share can easily halve down from here over the next six months, and investors should seek better stocks to invest in. A clear thumbs down for the management.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 19th June 2009

Headlines : 19 June 2009 
  Corporate News Headline
• Tech Mahindra has received approval from the US anti-trust authority regarding its Rs. 11.54 bn open offer for the purchase of an additional 20% stake in Satyam Computer. (BS)
• Shree Renuka Sugars said that it will expand its sugar refining capacity at its Athani unit in Karnataka to 2,000 tonne per day from 1,000 tonne per day. (BS)
• ONGC is resuming operations in insurgency-hit Nagaland after a gap of 15 years and has opened a liaison office at Dimapur. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
• Inflation turned negative 1.61% for the first time in thirty years but the prices of food items like fruit and vegetables, cereals and oil were still higher than last year. (BS)
• The index of the US leading economic indicators rose 1.2% in May for a second consecutive month and a regional factory gauge climbed more than forecast in June, showing the worst recession in five decades may soon end. (Bloomberg)
• The UK retail sales unexpectedly dropped 0.6% in May for the first time in three months and Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said the economic recovery may be sluggish as banks ration credit. (Bloomberg)
 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Tech Mahindra, Indus Ind Bank, Bajaj HInd, M Phasis, Auro Pharma, IDBI, LIC Housing In., Central Bank, GT Off Shore & Sesa Goa.

And this is list of 10  Weak future:

TCS, Jet Airways, HDIL, Sterling Bio, Ind Hotel, Purva, India Info, GE Ship, Praj Ind & NDTV.
 Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 4279 level, expect short covering up to 4335-4337 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4392-4394 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4254 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4219-4221 zone by non-stop.

Below 4163-4165 zone, expect panic up to 4106-4108 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 4449-4451 zone can take it up to 4505-4507 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.
Now SL triggered. 3 closes below 4270 level, it can tumble up to 3990 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX
Higher opening expected. Selling should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:  
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

Already SL triggered.

 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Buy RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.

If trades above 1974 level, then recovery may start up to 2076 level. Above 2138 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 1974 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 1915 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash) 

Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.

If trades above 861 level, then recovery may start up to 905 level. Above 932 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 861 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 835 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.

If trades above 88 level, then recovery may start up to 93 level. Above 95 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 88 level, then traders can expect further selling up to 85 level.
 
Buy DISH TV (I) FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 39 level, then uptrend may continue up to 41 level. Above 42 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 39 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 38 level.
 
Buy GVK POWER & INFRA FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 39 level, then uptrend may continue up to 41 level. Above 42 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 39 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 38 level.
 

 

SPOT LEVELS

	4251.40	( -2.40 %)	-104.75
		1	2	3
Resistance		4343.75	4436.10	4496.90
Support		4190.60	4129.80	4037.45

	14265.53		( -1.77 %)	-257.31
			1	2	3
Resistance			14534.76	14803.98	14977.24
Support			14092.28	13919.02	13649.80

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	18-Jun-2009	2037.96	2622.83	-584.87

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	18-Jun-2009	1878.4	1339.51	+538.89

 

Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,555.60. Up by 58.42 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 918.37. Up by 7.66 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,807.72. Down by 0.34 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.21/22 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 48.13/14.

DELIVERY BUY BASED ON FUNDAMENTALS
Steel Pipes: Times Are Changing, For The Adverse
Pipe manufacturer Man Industries is no longer planning to open a $100 million plant along the Arkansas River in Little Rock, USA. The project had fallen through because of problems financing the plant. It's just a matter of the economy and credit, and puts into poor light last years expansion by PSL and Welspun into the US market with debt funded spanking new plants with capacities exceed 300,000 tpa.

Both PSL and Welspun are looking to finance these ill-timed expansions into the USA with sizeable QIPs which will bloat Equity of both the entities. The entire sector is being hit by increased steel price, currency linked losses on Revenue translation, on the Debt for Working Capital and inability to pass on increased Raw Material costs on Fixed Price Contracts.

Financial performance of Welspun and PSL has been disastorous for PSL, Welspun, Man and Ratnamani Metals which are facing pains of over capacity as also declining orders from the middle eastern markets.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 17th June 2009

Intraday Calls 17thJun 2009+ve Sector, Scripts : STAR, YesBank, GD,GailBUY AxisBank-759 for a target 775 stop loss 749BUY PTC-96 above 97 for a target 100-104 stop loss 94.50BUY CIPLA-260 above 263 for a target 270 stop loss 260
Breakout CallsBUY IDBI-111 for a target 127 stop loss 106BUY RELInfra-1269 for a target 1364 stop loss 1230
Expected Breakout CallsBUY ITC-198 above 200 for a target 208-212 stop loss 197BUY REC-163 above 166 for a target 178 stop loss 163
Positional CallsBUY IndusIndBank-82 for a target 95 stop loss 77BUY IDFC-143 for a target 157-163 stop loss 139

Headlines : 17 June 2009
Corporate News Headline
• RNRL has joined the race to hire the LNG terminal adjacent to the Dabhol power plant to import liquefied natural gas cargoes. (BS)
• Sesa Goa is looking to raise about Rs. 5.83 bn through issue of shares to the firm's promoters and its associates. (ET)
• IVRCL Infrastructures and Projects has secured orders worth Rs. 4.32 bn from Mumbai-based Coastal Gujarat Power Limited for design and construction of all main civil works. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
• Available data on advance tax payments for the first quarter of the financial year indicates that the manufacturing sector may take more time to recover, while the financial sector remains buoyant. (BS)
• Housing market in the US starts jumped more than forecast in May while industrial production tumbled, offering a picture of an American economy still struggling to emerge from the deepest recession in half a century. (Bloomberg)
• The UK inflation rose 2.2% from a year earlier in May, at slower than economists forecast after higher taxes and the weakness of the pound sustained price pressures in the economy. (Bloomberg)

NIFTY fut
SUPP
4509
4463
4419
4375
4331
RESIS
4539
4561
4605
4649
SELL>INDUSIND,FSL,ICICI,SUZLON,RELIANCE

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Tech M,, Indusind Bank, Bajaj Hind, JP Hydro, MRPL, JSW Steel, Aurobindoph Pharma,IDBI, IFCI & RNRL.
And this is list of 10 Weak :
Canra Bank, Reliance, GMR Infra, Naukri, RPL, India Info, Purva, Sterlin Bio, Jet Airways & TCS
Nifty is in Up Trend .

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 4509 level, expect profit booking up to 4463-4465 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4419-4421 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4539 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 4559-4561 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4603-4605 zone. Stop Loss at 4647-4649 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4375-4377 zone can create panic up to 4331-4333 zone. If breaks & sustains at this zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Profit Booking should start.

Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
Already SL triggered. Technically short covering should continue up to 16157 level.

POSITIONAL
Sell RELIANCE INDS (NSE Cash)
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 2197 level, then selling may continue up to 2090 level. Below 2027 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 2197 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 2263 level.

Sell SUZLON ENERGY (NSE Cash)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking may start.

If trades below 123 level, then profit booking may start up to 117 level. Below 113 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 123 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 127 level.

Sell ICICI BANK (NSE Cash)
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 753 level, then selling may continue up to 716 level. Below 695 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 753 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 775 level.

Sell FIRSTSOURCE SOLUTIONS FUTURES (NSE)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking may start.

If trades below 29 level, then profit booking may start up to 27 level.

Below 26 level, expect free fall too. If crosses 29 level, then traders can expect further buying.

Sell INDUSIND BANK FUTURES (NSE)
Lower opening expected. Profit booking may start.

If trades below 84 level, then profit booking may start up to 80 level. Below 77 level, expect free fall too.

If crosses 84 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 86 level.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.
Already SL triggered. Technically short covering should continue up to 16157 level.

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	16-Jun-2009	2050.76	2779.27	-728.51

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	16-Jun-2009	1351.9	1206.78	145.12

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	4517.80	( 0.75 %)	33.80
		1	2	3
Resistance		4568.52	4619.23	4700.52
Support		4436.52	4355.23	4304.52

	14957.91		( 0.55 %)	82.39
			1	2	3
Resistance			15112.74	15267.58	15512.96
Support			14712.52	14467.14	14312.30

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,504.67. Down by 107.46 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 911.97. Down by 11.75 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,796.18. Down by 20.20 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 47.75/76 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 47.72/73.

DELIVERY PICK
Sintex Industries: Constructive Play

Sintex, a diversified player caters to infrstructure and allied segments, plastics and textiles. The corporate is set to become a major player in the global plastics industry given its inorganic growth in the composites segment and addition of new products to the pre-fab plastics segment.

The building products segment is likely to witness robust growth driven by monolithic construction, which is increasingly gathering acceptance in low-cost housing and slum rehab projects.

The textiles segment is also expected to witness stable growth coupled with improvement in margins. Given increased stress on infrastructure, Sintex is going to be a major beneficiary, and at 8 times FY11 estimated earnings the stock is a value buy.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)


--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 15th June

SELL HDFC-2282 for a target 2225 stop loss 2305
SELL TechM-721 below 715 a target 685 stop loss 727
BUY CanBank-240 above 245 for a target 255 stop loss 240

Breakout Calls
BUY JaysreeTea-180 for a target 189 stop loss 177
BUY McleodRus-106 for a target 122 stop loss 101
BUY Wockphar-147 for a target 170 stop loss 140

Expected Breakout Calls
BUY RPL-147 above 149 for a target 164 stop loss 145
BUY STER-720 above 727 for a target 744 stop loss 720

Positional Calls
BUY Hindzinc-665 for a target 694,723 stop loss 655
BUY Cipla-251 for a target 265,274 stop loss 245

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bajaj Hind, Satyam Com, JSW Steel, Tech Mahindra Ltd.,S Kumar Syn, Wel Guj, Bindal Agro, Auro Pharma, Sesa Goa & J P Hydro..

And this is list of 10  Weak :

Canara Bank, BPCL, PNB, Hind Petro, Strides Arcolab, Sterling Bio, SBI, HDIL, Naukri & Syndicate Bank.
 Nifty is in Up Trend .

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
 Above 4614 level, expect short covering up to 4664-4666 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4713-4715 zone by non-stop.

Multiple Supports at 4579 level & at 4576-4578 zone. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4561 level and thereafter it can slide up to 4526-4528 zone by non-stop.

Below 4509-4511 zone, expect panic up to 4460-4462 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4763-4765 zone can take it up to 4813-4815 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 
BSE SENSEX:
 
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 12478 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.

Already SL triggered. Technically short covering should continue up to 16157 level.
 

POSITIONAL
Sell GMR INFRASTRUCTURE (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking may start.

If trades below 163 level, then profit booking may start up to 155 level. Below 151 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 163 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 168 level.
 
Sell HIND CONSTRUCTION CO (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 109 level, then selling may continue up to 104 level. Below 100 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 109 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 112 level.
 
Sell IVRCL INFRASTR & PROJECTS (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 347 level, then selling may continue up to 330 level. Below 320 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 347 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 357 level.
 
Sell TVS MOTOR COMPANY FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 50 level, then selling may continue up to 47 level. Below 46 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 50 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 51 level.
 
Sell TATA POWER FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 1205 level, then selling may continue up to 1146 level. Below 1112 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 1205 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 1241 level.
 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,799.26. Up by 28.34 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 946.21. Up by 1.32 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,858.80. Down by 3.57 points.

The rupee ended at 47.61/62 per dollar on Friday, weaker than Thursday's close of 47.60/61.
 
(May not be useful for day-traders.)

Everest Kanto Cylinders-Attractive With A 2 Year View

 EKC is amongst the largest cylinder manufacturers in the World with a capacity to manufacture about 1.5 mn cylinders per annum. Rising demand for CNG cylinders both in the domestic and international markets has allowed EKC to raise CNG manufacturing capacity from 4.76 lakh nos to 8.96 lakh number by FY11.

Plants in Dubai and China are well placed to meet demand from centres in China, Iran, Egypt and the sub-continent. This when demand in India too is expected to trend upwards as GAIL through subsidiary IGL and Mahanagar Gas targets setting up city based gas projects in 20 cities over the next 3-5 years.

EKC is likely to maintain an earnings growth trajectory of 25 per cent CAGR between FY09 and FY11. The stock is attractive from a two year view.    

      

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	12-Jun-2009	2854.94	2385.59	469.35

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	12-Jun-2009	1338.32	1589.03	-250.71

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 12th June 2009

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bajaj Hind, JP Hydro, BEML, MRPL, ABAN, Sobha, Voltas, Laxmi Mach, Parsvnath & S Kumar Synf.

And this is list of 10  Weak :

Indian B, Bharti Airtel, PFC, Dabur, Axis Bank, Essar Oil, Star, PNB, Sterlin Bio & ITC. 
 Nifty is in Up Trend .

 

Intraday Calls 12thJun 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts : Fertilizers, Sugars Nagarfert, Gujalkali,
Appollotyre, CholaDBS

BUY TataMotors-369 for a target 378 stop loss 365
BUY TataChem-261 for a target 290 stop loss 253

BUY Bindalgro-27.75 for a target 30.50 stop loss 27
BUY Chambalfert-71.75 above 73 for a target 79 stop loss 71
BUY GNFC-102 for a target 109 stop loss 100

 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Above 4668 level, expect short covering up to 4701-4703 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4723-4725 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4625 & 4632 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4612-4614 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 4590-4592 zone by non-stop.

Break below 4579-4581 zone, expect panic up to 4557-4559 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4734-4736 zone can take it up to 4757-4759 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14931 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 16157 level for your short positions too.

 
INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 982 level, then buying may continue up to 1032 level. Above 1063 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 982 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 952 level.
 
Buy SESA GOA (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 187 level, then buying may continue up to 197 level. Above 203 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 187 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 182 level.
 
Buy ICICI BANK (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 732 level, then buying may continue up to 769 level. Above 792 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 732 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 710 level.
 
Buy RELIANCE NATURAL RESOURCES FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 89 level, then buying may continue up to 94 level. Above 96 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 89 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 86 level.
 
Buy IDEA CELLULAR FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Buying may continue.

If trades above 85 level, then buying may continue up to 90 level. Above 92 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 85 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 83 level.
 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,770.92. Up by 31.90 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 944.89. Up by 5.74 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,853.40. Up by 9.29 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.60/61 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 47.24/25.

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	11-Jun-2009	3361.27	2574.7	786.57

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	11-Jun-2009	1946.28	1388.14	558.14

 

DELIVERY
Satyam Computers-Take Profits 
L&T's AM Naik was ridiculed for having taken a near 14 per cent stake in Satyam Computer, just as the scale and size of rip-off at the company was made known to the World by the founder Mr. Raju. The stock sank from Rs 400 in September 2008 to Rs 7 in January 2009. Post-takeover by Tech Mahindra and disclosure of its finances to the Stock Exchanges a new interest is now visible in the counter.

All troubles at the counter have been forgotten. The open offer to purchase 19 crore shares by Tech Mahindra will in all likeli-hood will fail, and yet huge volumes to the tune of 15 mn per day per exchange accompanied by a price rise of near 30 per cent in three days shows larger forces are at work, something that has no link to reality but is reminiscent of operators driving the stock just like they did way back in the 1998-2000 period.

With scary financial margins, it is to be questioned why is Mr. Naik not selling the Satyam stock? And yet, there are no answers for here is a company which was losing close to Rs 500 crore on one investment, and having recouped the same is not getting out knowing that with Mahindra's on board they will never have a working relationship with Satyam.

Like flies attracted to a burning light speculators are moving towards the Satyam with Buyer freeze of 15 mn on each exchange. One day reality will dawn, investors will do well to take the 30 per cent in short term profits and let the speculators carry the stock further on momentum.
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 11th June 2009

  Corporate News Headline
• Tata Teleservices announced the launch of its services in GSM platform in partnership with Japanese firm NTT DoCoMo and said it will invest USD 2 bn by this fiscal to roll out operations across the country. (BS)
• SAIL received the nod for acquiring four pending mining leases in Chiria iron ore mines of Jharkhand. (BS)
• RIL has increased LPG supplies to Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum from its twin refineries at Jamnagar, forcing the state-run firms to sell cooking fuel cargoes that they had contracted from overseas suppliers. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
• The Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that banks have agreed to consider interest rate cuts, responding to his strong pitch saying measures to ease their burden were not being passed on and that industry needed credit at reasonable rates to push overall growth. (BS)
• The UK manufacturing rose 0.2% for a second month in April, as a rebound in motor vehicle production helped end the yearlong factory slump and temper Britain's recession. (Bloomberg)
• The orders for Japanese machinery fell 5.4% in April and producer prices tumbled as dwindling profits forced companies to cut costs amid the worst postwar recession. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES

SUPPORT

4628

4583

4539

4466

4423

4270

RESISTANCE

4671

4680

4723

4767

4830

SELL SOLAR IND, SUNPHARMA, NOCIL, ALOKIND,DECCAN CRONICAL

 

Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bajaj Hind, JP Hydro, BEML, MRPL, ABAN, Sobha, Voltas, Laxmi Mach, Parsvnath & S Kumar Synf.

And this is list of 10  Weak :

Indian B, Bharti Airtel, PFC, Dabur, Axis Bank, Essar Oil, Star, PNB, Sterlin Bio & ITC. 
Nifty is in Up Trend .

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 4628 level, expect profit booking up to 4583-4585 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4539-4541 zone  by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4671 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 4678-4680 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4721-4723 zone, can take it up to 4765-4767 zone and supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4466-4468 zone. Stop Loss at 4423-4425 zone.

 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 
BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14931 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 16157 level for your short positions too.
 
POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY 
Sell SOLAR INDS (I) (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Profit booking should start.

If trades below 311 level, then profit booking may start up to 296 level. Break below 287 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 311 level, then traders can expect further buying up to 320 level.
 
Sell SUN PHARMACEUTIC (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 1360 level, then selling may continue up to 1294 level. Break below 1255 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 1360 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 1401 level.
 
Sell NOCIL LTD (NSE Cash) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 28 level, then selling may continue up to 26 level. Break below 25 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 28 level, then traders can expect short covering.
 
Sell ALOK IND FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 26 level, then selling may continue up to 24 level. Break below 24 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 26 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 27 level.
 
Sell DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLD FUTURES (NSE) 
Lower opening expected. Selling may continue.

If trades below 88 level, then selling may continue up to 84 level. Break below 82 level, expect free fall too. 

If crosses 88 level, then traders can expect short covering up to 91 level.

 

SPOT LEVELS

	4655.25	( 2.29 %)	104.30
		1	2	3
Resistance		4620.57	4690.18	4817.92
Support		4423.22	4295.48	4225.87

 

	15466.81		( 2.25 %)	339.81
			1	2	3
Resistance			15349.92	15572.83	15984.45
Support			14715.39	14303.77	14080.86

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	10-Jun-2009	3890.44	3152.35+	+738.09

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	10-Jun-2009	2539.74	1949.86_	+589.88

 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,739.02. Down by 24.04 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 939.15. Down by 3.28 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,853.08. Down by 7.05 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.24/25 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Tuesday's close of 47.48/49.
 
ICSA India: Powerful Solutions
      
ICSA caters to power, oil, gas and water industries through the development of products and solutions which prevent and reduce transmission losses. ICSA had exceptional Revenue and PAT CAGR of 139 per cent and 129 per cent respectively over the FY06-09 period.

With a rising order book, the growth outlook over the next three years due to greater implementation of the APDRP and increased spending on infrastructure will help lift ICSA's earnings by 38 per cent and 30 per cent in FY 10 and FY11 respectively.

At Rs 19 Bn ICSA's order book stands at 1.8 times FY09 Revenues. On projected earnings the PE for FY10 and FY11 works to 3.7 and 3. There could be significant upside from here.
 

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 10th June 2009

  Corporate News Headline
• ONGC said its overseas crude output will fall this year as fields age, and an increase is likely after new areas in Brazil and Myanmar start production by 2012. (Bloomberg)
• NTPC has agreed to buy natural gas from RIL but is opposed to paying marketing margin to the private firm and wants to use the fuel at plants other than Kawas and Gandhar that were identified by the government. (BS)
• Infotech Enterprises has secured a multi-million dollar contract from Malaysia-based inCONTROL Tech for implementing GIS information system for a power utility in that country. (BS)
  Economic and Political Headline
• The Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the country's economy is even now capable of growing by 8%-9%, the same rate as it did before the global financial meltdown set in. (BS)
• JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs Group Inc., and Morgan Stanley were among 10 lenders that won the US Treasury approval to buy back USD 68 bn of government shares, freeing them from added oversight that curbed lending practices, hiring, and pay. (Bloomberg)
• China's passenger-vehicle sales rose 47% in May, the biggest jump since February 2006, as tax cuts and government subsidies helped extend the country's lead over the US as the world's biggest auto market this year. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUT

SUPPORT

4513

4442

4373

4304

4235

RESIS

4561

4581

4650

4719

4830
UNITECH,MRPL,IBN18,IFCI,MOSERBAER

 

Intraday Calls 10thJun 2009
BUY Infy-1794 for a target 1823-1855 stop loss 1780
BUY Sesagoa-175 for a target 185 stop loss 171

BUY REC-157 for a target 164 stop loss 153
BUY DLF-402 for a target 424 stop loss 395
BUY INDANBnk-128 above 130 for a target 138 stop loss 128 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Bajaj Hind, JP Hydro, BEML, MRPL, ABAN, Sobha, Voltas, Laxmi Mach, Parsvnath & S Kumar Synf.

And this is list of 10  Weak :

Indian B, Bharti Airtel, PFC, Dabur, Axis Bank, Essar Oil, Star, PNB, Sterlin Bio & ITC. 
 Nifty is in Up Trend .

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 4513 level, expect profit booking up to 4442-4444 zone and thereafter it can slide up to 4373-4375 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 4561 level. Above this level, buying may continue up to 4579-4581 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4648-4650 zone. Stop Loss at 4717-4719 zone.
On Negative Side, break below 4304-4306 zone can take it up to 4235-4237 zone. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop. 

BSE SENSEX:
Lower opening expected. Profit Booking should start. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14931 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 16157 level for your short positions too.
 
POSITIONAL
Buy UNITECH (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 86 level, then uptrend may continue up to 91 level. Cross above 93 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 86 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 84 level.
 
Buy IBN18 BROADCAST (NSE Cash) 

Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 128 level, then uptrend may continue up to 134 level. Cross above 138 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 128 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 124 level.
 
Buy MRPL (NSE Cash) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 93 level, then uptrend may continue up to 97 level. Cross above 100 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 93 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 90 level.
 
Buy IFCI FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 52 level, then uptrend may continue up to 55 level. Cross above 57 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 52 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 51 level.
 
Buy MOSER-BAER (I) FUTURES (NSE) 
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 105 level, then uptrend may continue up to 111 level. Cross above 114 level, expect fire works too. 

If breaks 105 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 102 level.
 

 

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,763.06. Down by 1.43 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 942.43. Up by 3.29 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,852.11. Up by 17.73 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.48/49 per dollar yesterday, higher than Monday's close of 47.555/565.
 

SPOT LEVELS

	4550.95	( 2.73 %)	121.05
		1	2	3
Resistance		4559.32	4688.73	4766.07
Support		4352.57	4275.23	4145.82

	15127.00		( 3.14 %)	461.08
			1	2	3
Resistance			15043.08	15420.25	15639.67
Support			14446.49	14227.07	13849.

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	09-Jun-2009	3841.61	2886.3	+955.31

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	09-Jun-2009	1448.84	1592.05	-143.21

 

 

DELIVERY BUY

Modern Dairies 
 
Have a look at Modern Dairies-the largest milk processing unit set up in Karnal, Haryana with an investment of over Rs 400 crore-the most modern milk plant in Asia.

The promoters subscribed and converted all their warrants at Rs 80 per share.

IFC Washington has taken this unit as a show piece project for Asia, with an Equity contribution of 20 per cent (46,50,000 shares at Rs 60 per share), and additional credit lines of $ 10-20 mn for working capital.

PSU banks with terms loans of Rs 300 crore have recently approved the CDR package.

The company sells for Rs 58 crore. (Equity 2.3 crore shares at Rs 25).

The plant handles 350,000 litres of fresh milk per day, collecting the same from nearly 200 villages around Karnal.

The unit is a big supplier of Milk solids to Mcdonalds, Pizza Hut, Glaxo and Smithkline Beecham for Horlicks. During FY10 Modern Dairies intends to reduce component of milk sales and increase sales of processed milk, condensed milk, mozarella and many other forms of processed cheese. This will increase the shelf life of products sold, while fresh milk will be moved from poly packs to tetra pack thereby catering to the marketing needs of Nestle.

Recent agreements have been signed with Reliance Fresh to provide fresh milk under the Reliance Fresh Trademark to NCR residents.

Compare valuations with Milkfood, Heritage Foods and Kwality Dairy and also look up www.milkplus.com to know the company better.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 9th June 2009

Intraday Calls 09thJun 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts :
IT, OMAXAUTO, TorontpowerSHORT Tatasteel-416 below 410 for a target 380 stop loss 420
SHORT Abirlanuvo-913 below 905 for a target 875 stop loss 915
SHORT Adlabs-399 below 390 for a target 378 stop loss 396
BUY TCS-742 above 750 for a target 767 stop loss 742
BUY BEML-926 above 935 for a target 955 stop loss 928
BUY Tatapower-1082 above 1090 for a target 1115 stop loss 1085

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
RESISTANCE
4470
4544
4616
4688
4760
SUPPORT
4424
4400
4328
4256
WATCH polaris,bilt,VOLTAS,TORENTPWR,TCS

Corporate News Headline
•	Areva T&D India has bagged four contracts worth Rs. 3.5 bn from power transmission utility Power Grid Corporation of India for developing four substations in the country. (BS)
•	Wire & Wireless is planning to raise Rs. 1.92 bn on a private placement basis from institutional investors. (BS)
•	Power Trading Corp is planning to acquire coal properties overseas and has identified mines in Australia and Indonesia for the purpose. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	With economic condition turning better compared to that three months ago, the Planning Commission said economy should record at least 6.7% growth rate this fiscal, the same as was witnessed in 2008-09. (BS)
•	The Bank of England is proposing an extension to its Asset Purchase Facility to buy secured commercial paper as part of its plan to restore liquidity to credit markets. (Bloomberg)
•	Japan's corporate bankruptcies dropped 6.7% in May, for the first time in 12 months and merchant sentiment climbed to a one-year high, signs that the economy is starting to recover from its deepest postwar recession. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
JP Hydro, Aban, Bajaj Hind, MRPL, S Kumar Syn, Rajesh Expo, Welguj, Omaxe, Sobha & IVRCL Infra.
And this is list of 10 Weak :
ITC,Sterlin Bio, Cipla, Sesa Goa, Dabur, Bharti Airtel, Relinace, Glaxo, Sunpharma, Lupin & GTL.
Nifty is in Up Trend .

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Hurdle at 4470 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 4542-4544 zone and thereafter it can zoom up to 4614-4616 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4424 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4400-4402 zone by non-stop.

Below 4328-4330 zone, expect panic up to 4256-4258 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 4686-4688 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 4758-4760 zone.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 4270 level, it can zoom up to 4830 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX:
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.
Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 13704 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 14931 level for your short positions too.


POSITIONAL
Buy TCS (NSE Cash)
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.
If trades above 724 level, then uptrend may continue up to 761 level. Cross above 783 level, expect fire works too.

If breaks 724 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 702 level.

Buy TORRENT POWER (NSE Cash)
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.

If trades above 154 level, then uptrend may continue up to 162 level. Cross above 167 level, expect fire works too.

If breaks 154 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 150 level.

Buy VOLTAS LTD (NSE Cash)
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.
If trades above 123 level, then uptrend may continue up to 129 level. Cross above 133 level, expect fire works too.

If breaks 123 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 119 level.

Buy BALLARPUR INDUSTRIES FUTURES (NSE)
Higher opening expected. Recovery should start.
If trades above 23 level, then recovery may start up to 25 level. Cross above 25 level, expect fire works too.

If breaks 23 level, then traders can expect further selling.

Buy POLARIS FUTURES (NSE)
Higher opening expected. Uptrend may continue.
If trades above 101 level, then uptrend may continue up to 106 level. Cross above 109 level, expect fire works too.

If breaks 101 level, then traders can expect profit booking up to 98 level.


SPOT LEVELS

	4429.90	( -3.42 %)	-157.00
		1	2	3
Resistance		4559.32	4688.73	4766.07
Support		4352.57	4275.23	4145.82

	14665.92		( -2.90 %)	-437.63
			1	2	3
Resistance			15043.08	15420.25	15639.67
Support			14446.49	14227.07	13849.90

Global Cues & Rupee
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,764.49. Up by 1.36 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 939.14. Down by 0.95 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,837.14. Down by 7.02 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.555/565 per dollar on yesterday, lower than Friday's close of 47.105/115.

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	08-Jun-2009	2424.2	2438.67	-14.47

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	08-Jun-2009	1019.38	1895.3	-875.92

Jetking Infotrain-Basic Tech Education

Long before the Aptechs and NIITs hit the headlines, Jetking has been churning out trained professionals who find employment in the repair and maintenance industry. The technician who shows up at your door to fix the television, computer and other electronic equipment would most probably have got himself trained at one of the many Jetking institutes that dot the landscape across India's cities and towns.

This unpretentious institute makes no bones about the fact that its target comprises of the low and low-middle class youth with a school or under-graduate education out to find a job at the earliest.

Jetking's courses last for a year to 15 months and provide training in jobs like network management and hardware maintenance.

Apart from full-time day courses, Jetking also provides for part-time night courses that provide an opportunity for working students to upgrade their skills. Part of the course package includes training in basic conversational English and familiarization with basic etiquette.

Though originally confined to Mumbai, Jetking has spread its wings across the country and operates out of nearly 120 training centres in major cities and towns. Future plans include spreading out abroad by setting up operations in China and Nigeria.

This small-cap company with negligible debt has shown decent growth over the past several years. Its revenues have grown from Rs 11.49 crore in FY 2005 to Rs 39.88 crore in FY 2008. The company's operating profit margins have also increased sharply as it increased emphasis on franchisee-run operations. Its profit after tax has risen from Rs 2.27 crores in FY 2005 to Rs 9.85 crores in FY 2008. OPM has risen from 8.27 per cent in FY 2005 to 46.68 per cent in FY 2008. The company also enjoys a cash profit margin exceeding 35 per cent since it charges a commission on fees earned by the franchisee from every student.

Its profits have grown 63 per cent on a CAGR basis from FY05 to FY08. Earnings per share have grown from Rs 11.58 in FY05 to Rs 25.08 in FY08. The company has been regularly rewarding its shareholders with bonuses. It issued 1:1 bonus shares in 2004 and 2007 respectively and 1.2 shares in 2008.

The company also enjoys very favourable ratios. Its return on assets is 67 per cent while return on capital employed is a whopping 101 per cent. Its return on equity is 82 per cent.

Investment Rationale

Jetking Infotrain has opted to aggressively grow its business. In FY 2009 alone the company added 20 franchisees in different parts of the country. The company has plans to add 60 more franchisees in the coming years and expand its operations in the Northern and Eastern India in the near future.

At present, the company is consolidating operations in Tamil Nadu and Kerala. As part of efforts to grab a higher mindshare in the market, Jetking Infotrain began advertising in

the recently-concluded IPL cricket series.

The prospects for the company's business appear good in the coming years despite the ongoing recession. Unlike the bigger names in the industry that have branched into software training, Jetking has decided to stay focused on the hardware part of the business where it has competition only from the unorganized sector.

Over the years Jetking has partnered with the big names in the IT field to offer courses tailor-made for the industry. It tied up with Novell in 1997 as a Novell Education Academic Partner and with Microsoft in 2003 as a Microsoft Certified Partner. It followed up with tie-ups with industry leaders like Red Hat to offer courses in Linux and open-source software and WatchGuard Technologies that offers training threat management of hardware and installed software.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381