Friday, May 8, 2009

Market Outlook 8.6.09 &Why it makes sense to Buy L&T, IVRCL and HCC.

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures: Bhushan Steel,Havells,Bajaj Hind, JSW Steel,Penin Land, Tulip, Kesoram, Suzlon,HDIL & Stelite Inds.
And this is list of 10  Weak
Steling Bio,Bpcl,Hind Petro,Hind Uni Lvr,Bata, BOI,Educomp,UBI,IOC & TTML
 Nifty is in Up Trend.
 
Trading Calls 8th May 2009
Intraday Calls
BUY DivisLab-953 @ 945 for a target 965-990 stop loss 940
 
BUY Maruthi-839 @ 830 for a target 852 stop loss 824

BUY TechMaha-344 for a target 360 stop loss 337

SHORT HDFC-1817 @ 1835 for a target 1780 stop loss 1850

SHORT ACC-624 @ 630 for a target 610 stop loss 636

Breakout Calls
BUY ZEEL-129 for a target 158 stop loss 122
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O) 
Below 3668 level, expect profit booking up to 3645-3647 zone and thereafter it can slide up to 3623-3625 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 3688-3690 zone. Above this zone, buying may continue up to 3693 & 3703 levels by non-stop.
Cross above 3725-3727 zone, can take up to 3746-3748 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 3587-3589 zone. Stop Loss at 3565-3567 zone.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3342 level, it can zoom up to 3997 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX   
 Lower opening expected. Get prepared for false signal & Technically recovery should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 13662 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10962 level for your long positions too.
 
 NIFTY SPOT LEVEL
NSE Nifty Index   3683.90 ( 1.62 %) 58.85       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3711.58 3739.27   3786.48  
Support 3636.68 3589.47 3561.78
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,409.85. Down by 102.43 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 907.39. Down by 12.14 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,716.24. Down by 42.86 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.28/29 per dollar on yesterday, above Wednesday's close of 49.58/60.
 
BSE Sensex  12116.94 ( 1.37 %) 164.19     
  1 2 3
Resistance 12180.22 12243.49 12343.04
Support 12017.40 11917.85 11854.58
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 07-May-2009 1874.19 1485.86 +388.33
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 07-May-2009 832.55 790.15 +42.4
 
Water: Very Liquid Assets
 
Water crises are both a dark threat to the world and an increasingly bright investment opportunity......& why it makes sense to Buy L&T, IVRCL and HCC.
 
THE NEW OIL MAY BE WATER
According to Global Water Intelligence, a U.K. consultancy, by December total assets under management in water funds could hit a record $20 billion this year, a 53 percent increase from 12 months earlier.  
No wonder: since 2001, shares in global water companies have gone up 150 percent, according to Thomson Financial. That compares with a 50 percent rise in international blue chips.  
The reason is simple: there is profit in scarcity. Buffeted by constant news of dying rivers, droughts and water shortages from China to Mexico, investors are increasingly aware that water is a threatened resource. With more and more governments handing public water systems over to the big multinationals like the U.K.'s Veolia Environment and Thames Water, profits are rising.  
One of the top companies, France's Suez, saw global sales from its water unit increase 11.7 per-cent, helped by a 20.3 percent rise in revenue from China.  
These days, savvy asset-management companies have turned water shortage anxieties into a burgeoning investment-fund business. Like the rest of the market, water stocks have fallen recently, but a lot less than, say, U.S. equities.  
While the Standard & Poor's index plunged by a tenth in the last few weeks, shares in global water companies are down only about 3 percent, helped by international business exposure and the view that cash-generating utilities businesses are a good defense in a downturn.  
This year, much of the new money pouring into water funds is coming from Asia, where ethical investing is very new. It may also simply be that Asia is the only developing region that has a combination of remarkably acute water crises and particularly rapid growth, creating a new crop of investors who are intimately familiar with the water threat.
 
Only seven months into 2007, there are now 27 inter national water funds, more than double the number compared with 2006. Of the 15 new products, nine target Asian investors in Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo and Sydney.  
Since April, when Societe Generale's Lyxor Asset Management unit began inundating Hong Kong with ads touting its new water fund, it has raised $320 million from mom-and-pop investors alone, well beyond its expectations.  
The price of any company's stock reflects its estimated future earnings, and the potential to make money fixing water problems is huge. In developing markets where affluence is growing and hundreds of millions of people are set to move from rural to urban areas, water resources are under assault.  
The Chinese government estimates that demand will increase by 120 percent in the next 25 years, while in India, urban water needs will rise 100 percent in the coming two decades.  
For major water-treatment specialists, the biggest new projects are in China. Some 1,000 wastewater plants are to be built over the next five years, as the government has pledged more than $125 billion to address the natural-resource shortage.  
Hundreds of billions more are expected to come from the private sector. A recent report from Macquarie, the investment bank, pegged earnings growth for Singapore-listed water-treatment companies like Epure and Hyflux, which target the China market, at between 37 and 40 percent over the next three years.  
The hottest investment bets include companies engaged in desalination, recycling or infrastructure, which have the highest margins and potential profit growth. Utilities are less attractive, because water prices anywhere are usually regulated by the government and not subject to market conditions. 
Dieter Kuffer, a senior portfolio manager with Sustainable Asset Management in Zurich—which has the second biggest water fund in the world, worth $1.6 billion says, "We think earnings growth in water stocks overall will be 14 percent over the next five years, and Asian water-stock growth will be 50 to 100 percent." 
 
Investors pouring money into water funds may find, as they say in China, double happiness. The stocks themselves have had a good run. But investing in sustainability may have a larger payoff.  
Many economists now see environmental issues as the biggest stumbling block to continued fast growth in Asia. Already, Beijing estimates economic losses due to water shortages at $25 billion a year. Investors buying into liquid assets could help secure Asia's larger economic future.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Market outlook for 7th April 2009

Trading Calls 7th May 2009
Intraday Calls
BUY GSPL-46.9 for a target 50 stop loss 45
SHORT Educomp-2272 @ 2325 for a target 2240 stop loss 2350
SHORT Maruthi-808 @ 827 for a target 800 stop loss 832
SHORT HUL-234 for a target 219 stop loss 241 [positional]
Performance on 6th May 2009
-ve Sector, Scripts : Oil&Ref, NTPC,
BUY Tatasteel-286 for a target 303 stop loss 282 [sl hit]
SHORT IOC-436 for a target 428 stop loss 440 [L-428, -1.5%]
SHORT BPCL-372 for a target 365-360 stop loss 376 [L-365, -1.7%]
SHORT Nationalum-232 for a target 225 stop loss 236 [sl hit]
BUY RELinfra795 above 800 for a target 865 stop loss 790 [H-831,
+0.70%]
BUY Jindalsaw-247 above 250 for a target 290 stop loss 245[sl hit]
BUY Edelweise-316 for a target 345 stop loss 303 [L-303.90]
BUY ABGShip-137 for a target 155 stop loss 131 [sl hit] 
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Above 3653 level, expect short covering up to 3696-3698 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 3725-3727 zone by non-stop.
Support at 3605 & 3622 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 3589-3591 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 3560-3562 zone.
Buy if touches 3546-3548 zone. Stop Loss at 3518-3520 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 3739-3741 zone can take up to 3767-3769 zone. If crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3342 level, it can zoom up to 3997 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX 
 
 Higher opening expected. Get prepared for false signal & Technically profit booking should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 13662 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10962 level for your long positions too.
 

 
NIFTY SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   3625.05 ( -1.01 %) -36.85       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3691.85 3758.65   3800.25  
Support 3583.45 3541.85 3475.05

BSE Sensex  11952.75 ( -1.47 %) -178.33     
  1 2 3
Resistance 12183.43 12414.11 12556.12
Support 11810.74 11668.73 11438.05
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 06-May-2009 2799.68 2268.76 530.92
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 06-May-2009 1170.85 1199.11 -28.26
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,512.28. Up by 101.63 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 919.53. Up by 15.73 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,759.10. Up by 4.98 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.58/60 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Tuesday's close of 49.29/30.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Market Outlook 6th May 2009

Trading Calls 6th May 2009
Intraday Calls
-ve Sector, Scripts : Oil&Ref, NTPC,
BUY Tatasteel-286 for a target 303 stop loss 282
SHORT IOC-436 for a target 428 stop loss 440
SHORT BPCL-372 for a target 365-360 stop loss 376
SHORT Nationalum-232 for a target 225 stop loss 236
Expected Breakout Calls
BUY RELinfra795 above 800 for a target 865 stop loss 790
BUY Jindalsaw-247 above 250 for a target 290 stop loss 245
Positional Calls
BUY Edelweise-316 for a target 345 stop loss 303
BUY ABGShip-137 for a target 155 stop loss 131
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O) 
Below 3648 level, expect profit booking up to 3620-3622 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 3602-3604 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 3675 & 3686 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 3695-3697 zone and thereafter it can zoom
up to 3712-3714 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 3721-3723 zone can take up to 3739-3741 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, buying emerge at around 3594-3596 zone. Stop Loss at 3576-3578 zone.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3342 level, it can zoom up to 3997 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX   
Lower opening expected. Bulls are tired & if moves up then tired bulls may
offload their long positions.
  
Short-Term Investors: 
  Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 13662 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10962 level for your long positions too.
 
 NIFTY LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   3661.90 ( 0.22 %) 7.90       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3689.82 3717.73   3753.27  
Support 3626.37 3590.83 3562.92

BSE Sensex  12131.08 ( -0.03 %) -3.67     
  1 2 3
Resistance 12224.01 12316.95 12436.01
Support 12012.01 11892.95 11800.01
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,410.65. Down by 16.09 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 903.80. Down by 3.44 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,754.12. Down by 9.44 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.29/30 per dollar on yesterday, above its Monday's close of 49.91/92.
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 05-May-2009 2862.56 2354.05 +508.51
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 05-May-2009 958.99 1088.84 -129.85
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Market outlook for 5th April 09

Trading Calls 5th May 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts : Thermax, Centurytex
Intraday Calls
BUY HDFC-1965 for a target 2000 stop loss 1950
BUY Hindzinc-530 for a target 552 stop loss 524
BUY KotakBnk-423 for a target 445 stop loss 417
BUY Bajaj-Auto-662 for a target 710 stop loss 650
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Rally may continue up to 3680-3682 zone for time being.
Support at 3644 & 3648 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 3617-3619 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 3593-3595 zone by non-stop.

Buy if touches 3422-3424 zone. Stop Loss at 3398-3400 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 3704-3706 zone can take up to 3729-3731 zone. If crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 3342 level, it can zoom up to 3997 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX 
 
 Higher opening expected & uptrend should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 13662 level on upper side.

Maintain a Stop Loss at 10962 level for your long positions too.
 
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,426.74. Up by 214.33 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 907.24. Up by 29.72 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,763.56. Up by 44.36 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 49.91/92 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of 50.04/05.
SPOT LEVELS
NSE Nifty Index   3654.00 ( 5.18 %) 180.05       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3719.43 3784.87   3905.23  
Support 3533.63 3413.27 3347.83

BSE Sensex  12134.75 ( 6.41 %) 731.50     
  1 2 3
Resistance 12319.35 12503.96 12846.01
Support 11792.69 11450.64 11266.03
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 04-May-2009 3764.58 2347.3 1417.28
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 04-May-2009 1155.64 1248.24 -92.6
 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Monday, May 4, 2009

Market Outlook 4th May 2009

Trading Calls 4th May 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts : JKTyre, Nirma, Castrol
Intraday Calls
BUY Infy-1509 for a target 1540 stop loss 1395
BUY ICICI-479 for a target 495-500 stop loss 465
BUY RIL-1806 for a target 1875 stop loss 1780
Breakout Calls
BUY HeroHonda-1182 for a target 1230, 1248 stop loss 1170
Expected Breakout Calls
BUY ONGC-864 above 870 for a target 904 stop loss 860
Positional Calls
BUY Titan-746 for a target 790-800 stop loss 730
BUY TCS-623 for a target 666-670 stop loss 610
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Rally may continue up to 3506 level for time being.
Support at 3460 & 3473 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 3418-3420 zone and thereafter expect a slide up to 3379-3381 zone by non-stop.
Buy if touches 3288-3290 zone. Stop Loss at 3248-3250 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 3545-3547 zone can create buying up to 3584-3586 zone. If crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3530 level, it can tumble up to 3173 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX 
 
 Higher opening expected & uptrend should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:
 
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 11967 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10172 level for your long positions too.
 
 
 
SPOT LEVELS FOR 4TH MAY
NSE Nifty Index   3473.95 ( 3.32 %) 111.60       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3518.00 3562.05   3637.70  
Support 3398.30 3322.65 3278.60
 
BSE Sensex  11403.25 ( 3.65 %) 401.50     
  1 2 3
Resistance 11525.15 11647.04 11863.84
Support 11186.46 10969.66 10847.77
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
 The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,212.41. Up by 44.29 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 877.52. Up by 4.71 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,719.20. Up by 1.90 points.
Currency markets were closed on Friday for a holiday.
CAPITAL GOODS Stocks May Zoom
 
 Index Outlook

Sensex (11403.2)
Equity markets maintained a nonchalant attitude last week despite many unsettling developments. First it was the swine flu that sent a tremor through financial markets, then there were reports of large US banks needing additional capital following the much-talked about stress test and Chrysler filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Sensex managed to end the week on a highnote helped by some frantic last hour short-covering of derivative contracts.

It has been a stunning performance by Sensex in the month of April closing with 17 per cent gain. BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices kept pace with 18 and 21 per cent gain respectively. Trading was extremely volatile last week on long and short unwinding exerting pressure in both directions. Breadth was, however, weak as the action was concentrated mainly in the large-cap stocks. Volumes went through the roof, especially in the derivative segment of NSE. FIIs were net buyers for the week.

There is a slackening in the momentum indicators in the daily charts. Ten-day rate of change oscillator is perched on the zero line and the 14-day relative strength is moving down from the overbought zone. Weekly oscillators are however gung-ho. The 14-week RSI is rising at 62. The implication is that though there can be volatility in the short-term, the medium-term outlook is positive.

The three-day week just gone by has not changed our outlook along any time-frame. Sensex is moving in a narrow trading range over the short-term. Interpreting such sideway moves is tricky since though they are mostly continuation patterns followed by resumption of the up-trend, in rare cases, such moves turn out to be the last part of a up-trend called terminal corrective or a rounding top. The correct labelling becomes apparent only on completion of these patterns.

The safe way to play such patterns is to stay with the trend; that is to buy in declines until the index gives clear indication that is has reversed by declining below certain levels. Short-term investors can stay invested as long as Sensex holds above 10650. The trend-deciding level for medium-term investors would be 10200. Immediate medium term resistance band is between 11600 and 11800.

The all-pervading scepticism about the sustainability of the current rally appears to be aiding the Sensex to cover more ground. There can be a move higher to 11547 or 11687 next week. Strong move beyond the second resistance would take it to 12136. Supports for the week would be at 10700, 10440 and 10230.

Nifty (3473.9)
Nifty closed marginally in the red after a volatile start to the week. The index could move higher to 3487 or 3517 next week. If there is a close above the second target, it would usher in a rally to 3572. Supports for the week would be at 3300 and 3170. Short-term traders can continue to buy in declines as long as the index trades above the first support.

Medium term view for Nifty stays positive and a close below 3170 is required to signal a medium-term trend reversal.

Global Cues
Most global indices retained the gains recorded over the past month and closed marginally in the green. CBOE Volatility index declined below 40 as investors resumed betting on a sustained recovery in the markets. Europe was mostly strong. DJ Euro STOXX 50 closed with 2 per cent gain. Dow Jones Industrial Average made a tentative move above the 8100 mark. This index has been moving in a narrow range over the last four weeks. There is a strong chance of a break-out higher to 9100 or 9500 and this positive view will be mitigated only on a close below 7500. Jakarta Composite Index was the out-performer last week with 8 per cent gain.

Reliance Industries

It was a one-day-up-one-day-down kind of a move in RIL last week. The short-term trend in the stock is sideways between Rs 1,670 and Rs 1,850. Though the stock could test the upper boundary of this range in the short-term, presence of strong medium term resistance between Rs 1,800 and Rs 1,850 can cause another reversal from there. Break-out above this resistance will give the next medium-term resistance of Rs 2,100.

Negative divergence in the daily momentum indicators implies that the stock could decline in the short-term. Fresh long positions are therefore advised only on a strong close above Rs 1,850. Key short-term support is at Rs 1,600 where the 200-day moving average is positioned.

 
Maruti Suzuki
 

Maruti stayed volatile in the range between Rs 770 and Rs 820 last week. As explained in our last column, the short-term trend in this stock is weak. Key short-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 826. Failure to rally above this level can result in the stock declining to Rs 740. The presence of the 50-day simple moving average at Rs 725 makes the zone between Rs 725 and Rs 740 a key short-term support. Target on a decline below Rs 725 is Rs 694.

The medium-term trend in Maruti continues to be up and a weekly close below Rs 725 is required to negate this view. However, investors ought to tread carefully since the stock is nearing key intermediate term resistances of Rs 870 and Rs 950.

SBI

It was yet another star formation in the weekly candlestick chart of SBI signalling indecision. This stock is moving in the range between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,350 over the short-term. Short-term traders can buy in declines as long as it holds above Rs 1,200. Decline below Rs 1,200 can take the stock to Rs 1,120. Though oscillators in the daily chart continue to signal a buy implying that the medium term trend continues to be up though there can be short-term weakness.

If SBI holds above Rs 1,200, there can be another spurt higher to Rs 1,450 over the medium-term. This is a key medium-term resistance since it occurs at 38.2 per cent retracement of the down-move from the January 2008 peak.

ONGC
 

ONGC too is struggling to surpass the key resistance at Rs 920. We continue to advise caution since a reversal from this level can cause a correction back to Rs 600 over the medium-term resulting in a sideways move between Rs 600 and Rs 900 for a few more months. But a weekly close above this level can take the stock to Rs 1,100. Fresh purchases are therefore recommended only on a break-out beyond Rs 920. The short-term trend in the stock is down. Key short-term resistance is at Rs 886. Failure to move beyond this level can cause the stock to decline to Rs 826 or Rs 812 again. 200-day simple moving average present in this region will be an important short-term support for this stock.

Nifty futures at a critical juncture 

The three-day trading week saw Nifty future end on a flat note as Wednesday's smart recovery ensured that previous two sessions losses were recouped.

The Nifty April future closed about 3474 points against its previous week's closing of 3482. Nifty May future closed a tad higher at about 3483 points.

The series also saw a slightly higher rollover of 74 per cent. The market-wide rollover, however, was about 70 per cent, way below its performance in the earlier expiry.

Quite a few stock futures did not active rollover like last month. Expulsion of 50 stocks from the F&O list and the uncertainty related to election outcomes could be attributed to the poor show. Stock futures in telecom, auto and IT sectors however reported strong rollovers.

Follow-up

We had advised traders to set short straddle using 3400-strike. The position ended on positive note.

Outlook

We continue to feel that 3515-25 level offers a strong resistance zone for Nifty future. But if the Nifty futures manage to close above the 3525 barrier convincingly, then it has the potential to reach 3660, which is also its next resistance zone.

Any move above 3660 can take it higher up to 3850 level.

On the other hand, if it turns weak, then Nifty futures has the potential to touch 3000-2950, though in between it finds support at 3225.

Traders may note that the month of May traditionally has always witnessed wild swings, particularly on the downside.

Option monitor

Traders appear to be divided over the market direction. While 3400-3800 range call options remained active during the week, puts witnessed activity in the range between 3000-3500.

This indicates that one set of traders expect Nifty to fall to 3000, while another hopes that it might touch 3800.

Volatility Index

Volatility index, which measures the immediate expected volatility, weakened slightly this week. It ended at 46.63 as compared with its previous week's close of 47.78.

The fall however was mainly due to the expiry of April contracts, as some traders did not roll over their put positions.

Recommendation

Traders can consider setting a long straddle using 3500-strike.

The May 3500 call ended at Rs 160 while the put closed at Rs 176.15. This strategy is slightly for longer period.

Long straddle options yield unlimited profit with limited risk as the maximum loss is limited to the premium paid.

This strategy is best suited if one expects wild swings in the underlying asset but is unsure of direction.

FII trend

The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on April 29 jumped to 43.29 per cent.

They resorted to heavy selling, particularly in index futures.

They now hold index futures worth Rs 11,597.73 crore (Rs 13,286.71 crore) and stock futures Rs 14,534.88 crore (Rs 18,447.89 crore).

They reduced index options holding significantly to Rs 22,771.88 crore (Rs 34,658.94 crore).

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 29-Apr-2009 2853.31 2488.08 +365.23

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 29-Apr-2009 1124.76 1528.75 -403.99

 

 Meeting line and separating line

Meeting line and separating line candlestick patterns seem to be related patterns, but they are not. Meeting line is a reversal pattern while separating line is a continuation pattern. The similarity is that both these are two-candle patterns

Meeting lines are formed when white and black candlesticks have the same closing price.

Meeting line is similar to the piercing line candlestick pattern, but meeting line pattern is not that significant as the counter move is relatively weaker in the meeting line pattern, because of which the second candle does not pierce the first candle's body.

Bullish meeting line

Following a black candlestick in a downtrend, the stock opens sharply lower with a downward gap and then moves up to close at the same level as the previous day's close. This reflects that there is a balance between the bulls and the bears. A confirmation on the third day is essential in the form a white candlestick with a large gap up or a higher close on the subsequent session.

Bearish meeting line

In an uptrend following a white candle, the stock opens sharply higher with an upward gap and then declines to end the day at the same level as the previous day's close. A confirmation on the third day is required in the form a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close.

Bullish separating line

This pattern is formed in an uptrend. We observe a long black candle during the first day, then the stock gaps up higher. It opens with an opening price equal to the previous black candle's opening price and closes the day at a higher level, forming a long white body. A confirmation on the third day is essential in the form a white candlestick with a large gap up or a higher close.

Bearish separating line

We notice a white candlestick in a downtrend that is followed by a lower gap when the particular stock opens next day at the opening price equal to the previous day's opening price.

Later, the stock declines further for a lower closing price, forming a black candle. A confirmation on the third day is vital in the form a black candlestick, a large gap down or a lower close.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Market Outlook for 29th April

Trading Calls 29th Apr 2009
+ve sector, scripts: Aztek, Network18, BFRL
BUY BHEL-1597 for a target 1615-30 stop loss 1580
BUY RIL-1737 for a target 1755-60 stop loss 1729
BUY HDFC-1665 for a target 1710-16 stop loss 1655
BUY SBI-1235 above 1241 for a target 1265-70 stop loss 1235
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
KPIT, JP Associat, Penin Land, Lic Housing, TVS Motor, Purva, HDIL, Axis Bank, Wipro & 31Infotech.
And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:
Alok Text, Titan, National Alum, Divi's Lab, ZEEL, Aban, Rolta, Power Grid, Ranbaxy & Hind Unilvr.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Selling may continue up to 3332 level for time being.
Hurdle at 3381 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 3423-3425 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 3466-3468 zone by non-stop.
Sell if touches 3537-3539 zone. Stop Loss at 3580-3582 zone.
On Negative Side, break below 3288-3290 zone can create some panic up to 3245-3247 zone. If breaks & sustains at below this zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.
   
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3520 level, it can tumble up to 3165 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX   
 Lower opening expected & Selling should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 11967 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10172 level for your long positions too.
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,016.95. Down by 8.05 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 855.16. Down by 2.35 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,673.81. Down by 5.60 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 50.52/53 per dollar on yesterday, lower than Monday's close of 50.23/25. 
SPOT LEVELS 29TH APRIL
NSE Nifty Index   3362.35 ( -3.10 %) -107.65       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3439.03 3515.72   3559.48  
Support 3318.58 3274.82 3198.13

BSE Sensex  11001.75 ( -3.25 %) -370.10     
  1 2 3
Resistance 11264.56 11527.37 11678.77
Support 10850.35 10698.95 10436.14
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 28-Apr-2009 1485.62 1742.47 -256.85
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 28-Apr-2009 916.74 1118.89 -202.15
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Market Outlook for 28th Apr 09

Trading Calls 28th Apr 2009
Intraday Calls
BUY BEML-527 for a target 540 stop loss 522
BUY TCS-601 for a target 618-23 stop loss 595
SHORT BPCL-377 @ 383 for a target 370 stop loss 386
SHORT Tatasteel-253 @ 258 for a target 247 stop loss 261
Positional Calls
SHORT IBREALEST-130 for a target 122-115 stop loss 135
Expected Breakout Calls
BUY BHEL-1675 for above 1690 a target 1790 stop loss 1665

 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Below 3435 level, selling may continue up to 3420-3422 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 3383-3385 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 3480 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 3492-3494 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 3530-3532 zone.
Sell if touches 3542-3544 zone. Stop Loss at 3580-3582 zone.
On Negative Side, break below 3371-3373 zone can create panic up to 3333-3335 zone. If breaks & sustains at below this zone then downtrend may continue.
 
   Short-Term Investors:  
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2951 level, it can zoom up to 3661 level by non-stop.
  
BSE SENSEX   
 Lower opening expected & Profit Booking should start.
  
Short-Term Investors:
  
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 11967 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 10172 level for your long positions too.
 
 
Strong & Weak  futures for 28th April
This is list of 10 strong futures:
31 Infotech, Aban, ABB, ACC, Aditya Birla, Adlabs Film, AIA Engi, Allahabad Bank, Alok Indust & APIL.
And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:
ZEEL, Yes Bank, Wock Pharma, WWIL, Wipro, Wel Guj, Voltas, Vijay Bank, UNIPHOS & Uni Tech.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,025.00. Down by 51.29 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 857.51. Down by 8.72 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,679.41. Down by 14.88 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 50.23/25 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Friday's close of 49.81/82.
Book Profits in BANKEX Stocks
 
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 27-Apr-2009 2097.57 1840.19 +257.38
 
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 27-Apr-2009 1071.18 1003.12 +68.06
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   3470.00 ( -0.31 %) -10.75       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3513.07 3556.13   3595.02  
Support 3431.12 3392.23 3349.17

BSE Sensex  11371.85 ( 0.38 %) 42.80     
  1 2 3
Resistance 11517.12 11662.38 11832.67
Support 11201.57 11031.28 10886.02
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Monday, April 27, 2009

Strong & Weak Futures, FII data, Derivatives EOd report etc

Strong & Weak  futures for 28th April
This is list of 10 strong futures:
31 Infotech, Aban, ABB, ACC, Aditya Birla, Adlabs Film, AIA Engi, Allahabad Bank, Alok Indust & APIL.
And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:
ZEEL, Yes Bank, Wock Pharma, WWIL, Wipro, Wel Guj, Voltas, Vijay Bank, UNIPHOS & Uni Tech.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 27-Apr-2009 2097.57 1840.19 +257.38
 
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 27-Apr-2009 1071.18 1003.12 +68.06
 

Intraday support & resistance:for 28th April

S 2 S 1 Pivot R 1 R 2
3392.20 3431.05 3474.15 3513.00 3556.10

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Weekly Market Outlook 27th -29th April '09

 
Trading Calls 27th Apr 2009
+ve Sector, Scripts : CAIRN

Intraday Calls
BUY ABGShip-193 for a target 203 stop loss 190
BUY Videoind-122 for a target 132 stop loss 119
Expected Breakout Calls
BUY Sunilhitech-92 above 96 for a target 112 stop loss 92
BUY KFA-41 above 44 for a target 55 stop loss 42
Breakout Calls
BUY Tatapower-887 for a target 915 stop loss 880
Positional Calls
BUY RCOM-232 for a target 255 stop loss 225
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O),
Above 3492-3494 zone, rally may continue up to 3504 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 3529-3531 zone by non-stop.,
 
Support at 3460 & 3472 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 3420-3422 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 3383-3385 zone by non-stop.,
 
Below 3371-3373 zone, expect panic up to 3333-3335 zone by non-stop.,
On Positive Side, rally up to 3542-3544 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 3579-3581 zone.,
 
Short-Term Investors:,
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2951 level, it can zoom up to 3661 level by non-stop.,
 
BSE SENSEX,
Higher opening expected & uptrend should continue.,
 
Short-Term Investors:,
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 11967 level on upper side., Maintain a Stop Loss at 10172 level for your long positions too.
 
Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:
Essar Oil, HDIL, Purva, LITL, LIC Housing, Brigade, Penin Land, TVS Motors, JP Associates & Suzlon.
And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:
Sterling Bio, Titan, National Alum, ZEEL, Ranbaxy, Divi's Lab, Alok Indust, Hind Unilvr, SRF & Hind Petro.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.
 
GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,076.29. Up by 119.23 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 866.23. Up by 14.31 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,694.29. Up by 42.08 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 49.81/82 per dollar on Friday, stronger than its Thursday's close of 49.92/93.
 
SPOT LEVELS FOR 27TH APRIL
NSE Nifty Index   3480.75 ( 1.67 %) 57.05       
  1 2 3
Resistance 3513.77 3546.78   3602.22  
Support 3425.32 3369.88 3336.87

BSE Sensex  11329.05 ( 1.74 %) 194.06     
  1 2 3
Resistance 11437.84 11546.64 11730.39
Support 11145.29 10961.54 10852.74
 
FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 24-Apr-2009 1966.97 1390.2 +576.77
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 24-Apr-2009 948.07 932.76 +15.31
 
Index Outlook


Sensex (11329)

It was a more sedate trading week in Indian stock markets. The minor decline in the first two sessions was arrested at 10700 and the Sensex ended the week well above the 11000 mark. Action is however likely to be explosive next week with just three trading sessions that include the expiry day of the April derivative contracts, slew of corporate earnings and the deadline for deciding Chrysler's fate.

Trading interest is however high in the market though the benchmark is trudging sideways. Open interest in derivative segment has mounted to Rs 95,000 crore, close to the highs recorded towards the end of 2007. Number of option contracts in the open interest is reaching all-time highs. These are signals that the market is overheated. Some degree of comfort can be derived from the high put-call ratio that indicates that many of the traders are betting on a market decline. Short-covering of these positions can take stock prices higher from these levels.

Momentum is slowing down in the daily Sensex chart though weekly oscillators are still bullish. Ten-week rate of change oscillator is firmly entrenched in the positive zone, while the 14-week relative strength index is on the verge of entering the bullish zone implying that the medium-term trend is still positive.

From a long-term perspective, the trend is down since the 21206-peak. However, a strong counter-trend rally is in progress from the low of 8047. The first resistance zone for this move lies between 11600 and 11800. If this level is crossed, next resistance band is between 12800 and 13000. July 2008 trough at 12500 is another hindrance for this rally. The magnitude of correction following this rally will give us the answer to the all-important question – have the equity markets bottomed yet?

Medium-term trend in Sensex is up since the trough at 8047 and is still going strong. Trend following methods dictate that investors should stay on the right side of the move until it reverses. A close below 10200 will be the first indication that the medium-term trend is reversing. But some caution would be handy since Sensex is close to the first long-term resistance zone explained above.

We are ambivalent as far as the short-term outlook is concerned. The short-term trend in Sensex is sideways between 10650 and 11350. Decline below the lower boundary will pull Sensex to 10450, 10200 and 9500. Rally above 11350 can take the index higher to 11600 and 11856.

Nifty (3480.7)


The short-term trend in the Nifty too is sideways between 3300 and 3500. Short-term traders can buy in declines with a stop at 3250. Upper target on a break-out above 3500 are 3550, 3636 and 3684. Supports for the week would be at 3236 and 3170.

A close below 3170 would be the first indication of a medium term trend reversal. As explained earlier, a strong counter-trend rally is in force since 2539. The first target for this move lies between 3480 and 3680. If this zone is crossed, the next target zone is around 3820.

Global Cues

Global markets appeared to be biding their time last week, deciding which way to go next. Most global indices moved sideways without making any headway either up or down. CBOE VIX spiked up from a three-month low of 33 to 40 on Tuesday before easing downward to close the week at 36 implying that investors were getting slightly edgy at the rally that is showing no signs of reversing.

After the sharp downward jerk on Monday, DJIA recovered to end with a mild loss. This index has been moving sideways between 7800 and 8100 since the beginning of this month. A break-out beyond either boundary should set the intermediate term direction for this index and rest of the global equity indices.

Tata Steel


Tata Steel too underwent a mild correction in the beginning of the week but it recovered thereafter to end on a flat note.

Momentum indicators in the daily charts are indicating weakness. Short-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 276.

A downward reversal from this level can pull the stock lower to Rs 234 or Rs 212.

Move above Rs 276 will take the stock higher to Rs 297 and then to Rs 341 where the 200-day moving average is poised.

Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 232.

The medium term trend in the stock is up but a sideways move between Rs 240 and Rs 300 is possible for a few more sessions before it breaks out higher to our medium term target of Rs 335 and Rs 360.

Tata Steel


Tata Steel too underwent a mild correction in the beginning of the week but it recovered thereafter to end on a flat note.

Momentum indicators in the daily charts are indicating weakness. Short-term resistance for the stock is at Rs 276.

A downward reversal from this level can pull the stock lower to Rs 234 or Rs 212.

Move above Rs 276 will take the stock higher to Rs 297 and then to Rs 341 where the 200-day moving average is poised.

Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 232.

The medium term trend in the stock is up but a sideways move between Rs 240 and Rs 300 is possible for a few more sessions before it breaks out higher to our medium term target of Rs 335 and Rs 360.

ONGC


ONGC too moved in a very narrow band between Rs 830 and Rs 890 and ended the week with a mild loss. The short-term trend in the stock is down since the peak at Rs 922. Resistances for the week ahead would be at Rs 890 and Rs 922. Failure to move above the first resistance would result in a decline to Rs 816 or Rs 790 in the near term. 200-day moving average present at Rs 816 will be a key support from a medium term perspective. Weekly close below this level would herald a decline to Rs 740 over the medium term. This stock has retraced 38.2 per cent of the down-move recorded from the November 2007 peak. Failure to move above Rs 920 will mean that the stock can move in a wide band between Rs 600 and Rs 900 for the rest of this year.

Maruti Suzuki


MUL declined sharply in the earlier part of the week but it reversed from our medium term support of Rs 740 to close the week on a flat note. Short-term trend in the stock is down.

Immediate resistance for the stock is at Rs 826. Inability to move above this level can cause the correction to prolong and make the stock decline to Rs 735 or Rs 685. A move above Rs 826 will make the short-term trend positive paving the way for a rally to Rs 873.

The medium term trend in the stock is up but it has already retraced half the losses made in the previous down-move.

A medium term reversal is possible from the recent peak at Rs 873.

Move above this level will give the next target at Rs 950.

Infosys


The strong surge witnessed on this counter on Thursday made it close the week with 4 per cent gain.

Infosys has been repeatedly testing the resistance at Rs 1,450 over the last three weeks.

As explained in our last column, the stock has key resistance at Rs 1,450. Downward reversal from here will make it decline to Rs 1,000 whereas a rally beyond this level will give the stock next medium term target of Rs 1,587.

Fresh purchases from a trading perspective are therefore recommended only on a strong move above Rs 1,450. Subsequent short-term target is Rs 1,527.

Supports for the short term are at Rs 1,380 and Rs 1,350. Medium term trend will turn negative only on a close below Rs 1,300.

Reliance


RIL moved sideways between Rs 1,700 and Rs 1,800 last week.

Though it declined to Rs 1,670 on Tuesday, it recovered to close on an optimistic note.

As explained in our last column, the stock faces strong resistance in the band between Rs 1,800 and Rs 1,850 and a medium term reversal is possible from here.

But if RIL holds above Rs 1,600 over the next two weeks, there can be another leg of up-move that can take the stock higher to Rs 1,886 or Rs 2,020.

Next Fibonacci retracement level if RIL breaks past Rs 1,850 is Rs 2,100.

Short-term traders can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 1,660.

Swing traders can hold with a deeper stop at Rs 1,580.

SBI


SBI declined sharply from the resistance at Rs 1,350 indicated last week to an intra-week trough at Rs 1,202.

But the strong recovery from this level implies that the medium term trend in the stock continues to be up. Though the stock can move between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,350 for a few more sessions, there can be an upward break-out that takes it higher to Rs 1,433 or Rs 1,577.

Investors however need to tread cautiously till the stock closes above Rs 1,350.

The medium-term view for SBI will stay positive as long as it trades above Rs 1,100.

Repeated attempts to cross above Rs 1,600 between July and September 2008 makes this level a possible ceiling for this calendar.

 

Nifty future may see range-bound movement


Despite the sharp recovery, we feel that the Nifty future lacks conviction to move above the immediate resistance zone of 3515-25 level.

After opening on a weak note, Nifty future found strong support at lower levels and reversed the direction to end on a positive note.

The Nifty April future ended 2.2 per cent higher at 3482.05 against the spot close of 3480.7. The Nifty May future finished at 3491.05 and witnessed a rollover of about 38 per cent.

The rollover was lower when compared with the previous month's figure, as traders preferred to book profits. The market-wide rollover is in the region of 35-38 per cent.

Follow-up

We had advised trades to go short on Nifty future if it dips below 3325 and had also advised them to buy 3300 put. Both these strategies would have yielded sharp losses.

We had also advised trades to go short on HDIL. This also would have resulted in losses as it touched the resistance level of Rs 150.

Outlook

Despite the sharp recovery, we feel that the Nifty future lacks conviction to move above the immediate resistance zone of 3515-25 level. If it sustains the momentum and closes above the 3525, then it has the potential to go up to 3660, which is the next crucial resistance zone. On the other hand, if it fails to sustain the current momentum, it has the potential to reach the immediate support level of 3225.

A dip below that (on a closing basis) can take it to 2925, which appears rather remote at this point of time.

Option monitor

The calls saw activity centered around 3300-3500 strikes while the puts witnessed trading activity around 3200-3500.

Among May options, 3500 and 3600 calls were active indicating the resistance zone for Nifty. Interestingly even in June call options - strikes of 3400 and 3700 - were in the active zone. On the other hand, puts saw activity in 3200-3400 range in Nifty. This indicates the broad range of Nifty between 3200-3700.

Volatility Index

Though the volatility index weakened slightly on Thursday and Friday, it is continuing to advocate a cautious outlook. The index, which is famously known as fear gauge, ended at 47.78 against the previous week's close of 50.8. But during intra-day trading it peaked at 63 points.

Recommendations

We advice traders to adopt the following strategies.

Consider short straddle using 3400 strike, as we expect the Nifty to move in a tight range of 3300-3500.

While the 3400 call closed on Friday with a premium of Rs 105.4, the put ended at 34.8.

While the maximum profit in this strategy is the premium earned, the loss is unlimited if Nifty moves sharply in one direction. Writing options involve higher margin requirements.

FII trend

The cumulative FII positions as percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on April 23 is 35.21 per cent. They indulged alternate bout of buying and selling in derivative segment.

They now hold index futures worth Rs 13,286.71 crore (Rs 12,743.48 crore) and stock futures Rs 18,447.89 crore (Rs 16,370.08 crore).

Their holding in index options continued to be at record high. They now hold Rs 34,658.94 crore worth index options against the previous week level of Rs 27,150.9 crore.

Falling three and rising three methods


Yoganand D.

We have discussed some of the important bullish and bearish Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns in this column. A look at continuation candlestick patterns this week.

One of the important candlestick continuation patterns is the three methods pattern. These can be falling three methods pattern or rising three methods pattern. These candles are formed with five candles. Other continuation patterns in Japanese candlestick study are bullish separating lines and bearish separating lines.

The falling three methods candlestick pattern is a bearish continuation pattern and the rising three methods is a bullish continuation pattern. Both signal a small break or halt in the prevalent trend and no do not signal a trend reversal.

The falling three methods pattern is formed in a downtrend, with a long black candle (first) followed by a chain (three) of candles reacting upward.

These three candles are formed with smaller bodies, but should be within the range of the large black candle. Generally, these smaller bodies would be white.

The last (fifth) candle should be same as the first candle (large black candle). This candle should open lower than the close of the previous candle (fourth candle) and should close at a new low.

The rising three methods pattern is seen in an uptrend. The first candle is a long white candle followed by a chain of three candles, reacting downwards. These three candles are formed by smaller bodies, but should be within the range of the large white candle.

Typically, these smaller bodies would be black as the large or original candle is white. The fifth candle should be identical to the first (large white candle). The final candle should open higher than the close of the previous candle (fourth candle) and should close higher than the first long white candle (Refer diagram).

 


--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381