Market Outlook for 11.02.09

Headlines for the day

    Corporate News Headline

    Unitech has rescheduled more than three-fourths of its total debt amounting to Rs. 80 bn to tackle the slump in the real estate sector. (BS)

    Satyam Computer bagged new business in the manufacturing space by fire suppression technologies and advanced building support systems major. (BS)

    Tata Power has signed an MoU with Hirco to provide power supply and distribution solutions to residents and tenants of Hirco's Panvel special economic zone. (BS)

 

    Economic and Political Headline

    The government has decided to borrow an additional Rs. 460 bn between February 20 and March 20 to overcome the stress on government finances due to lower revenue collections and higher spending. (BS)

    The US President Barack Obama signalled that he would be open to seeking an expansion of the USD 700 bn financial-rescue program if the plan fails to restore stability to the US banking system. (Bloomberg)

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner pledged the US government financing for as much as USD 2 tn of efforts to spur new lending and address banks' toxic assets, seeking to end the credit crunch hobbling the economy. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Below 2903 level, expect profit booking up to 2873-2875 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2855-2857 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 2938 & 2941 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 2950-2952 zone and thereafter it can jump up to 2968-2970 zone.

Cross above 2977-2979 zone, it can zoom up to 2995-2997 zone and supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2846-2848 zone. Stop Loss at 2828-2830 zone.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.
3 closes above 2942 level, it will zoom up to 3048 level by non-stop.
 

BSE SENSEX  
  Traders can expect bounce.
  
Short-Term Investors: 
  Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9678 level on upper side.

Maintain a Stop Loss at 9049 level for your long positions too.

3 closes above 9678 level, it will zoom up to 9993 level by non-stop.

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

WWIL, Sesa Goa, GE Ship, Jindal Steel, BEML, Grasim, Polaris, BEL, Reliance & Praj Ind.

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

Aban, DLF, GDL, HDIL, Wel Guj, Network 18, Pantaloon, Punj Lloyd, Bajaj Hind & KPIT.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.

  

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,888.88. Down by 381.99 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 827.16. Down by 42.73 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,524.73. Down by 66.83 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.72/73 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 48.57/58.

Avoid Short Selling in METAL INDEX Stocks

 

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2934.50	( 0.50 %)	14.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		2964.02	2993.53	3029.67
Support		2898.37	2862.23	2832.72

	9647.47		( 0.66 %)	63.58
			1	2	3
Resistance			9744.73	9841.98	9959.10
Support			9530.36	9413.24	9315.99

 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	10-Feb-2009	1688.12	1319.16	368.96

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	10-Feb-2009	471.52	588.51	-116.99

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 10th Feb 2009

Headlines for the day

   Corporate News Headline

   BHEL bagged Rs. 70 bn contracts from various customers for the supply and installation of main plant equipment for thermal power projects. (ET)

   Nagarjuna Construction Company has bagged four new orders aggregating Rs. 7.12 bn from the Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority. (BS)

   BEML has bagged the order for supplying 150 coaches valued at around Rs. 16.72 bn from the Bangalore Metro Rail corporation Ltd. (BS)

 

   Economic and Political Headline

   Given the impact of the global financial meltdown, the government projected Indian economic growth to slow down to 7.1% in the current fiscal against 9% in 2007-08. (BS)

   Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner delayed the announcement of the Obama administration's financial-recovery plan as officials debated proposals aimed at addressing the toxic debt clogging banks' balance sheets. (Bloomberg)

   The US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner urged finance ministers from the G7 economies to act "promptly to restore health to the global economy. (Bloomberg)

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

WWIL, Sesa Goa, GE Ship, Jindal Steel, GMR Infra, Grasim, SAIL, GT Offshore, Balram Chini & Bhushan Steel.

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

DLF, Aban, HDIL, GDL, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, Divis Lab, Edu Comp, Orchid Chem & Tulip.
 Nifty is in Up Trend.

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Below 2883 level, expect profit booking up to 2842-2844 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2804-2806 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 2921 level. Above this level, rally may continue up to 2928-2930 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 2966-2968 zone, it can zoom up to 3004-3006 zone and thereafter it can touch 3030-3032 zone and supply expected at around this zone.

On Negative Side, below 2766-2768 zone expect panic up to 2728-2730 zone and buying can be done at around this zone. Stop Loss at 2703-2705 zone.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.

 

BSE SENSEX   
 Traders can expect bounce.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9678 level on upper side.

Maintain a Stop Loss at 9049 level for your long positions too.
 

Trading Calls 10th Feb 2009
USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading
Buy BEML-370 for 385 with sl 365 [Trading]
Buy GMRinfra-82 for 88 with sl 79
 
Buy ONGC-724 for 735 with sl 720
Buy RIL-1389 for 1426 with sl 1375
 
Buy SAIL-89 for 95-98 with sl 87

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,270.87. Down by 9.72 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 869.89. Up by 1.29 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,591.56. Down by 0.15 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.57/58 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of 48.67/68.

 

NIFTY & SESEX SPOT LEVELS FOR TODAY

	2919.90	( 2.70 %)	76.80
		1	2	3
Resistance		2951.05	2982.20	3037.65
Support		2864.45	2809.00	2777.85

	9583.89		( 3.04 %)	283.03
			1	2	3
Resistance			9680.56	9777.22	9952.89
Support			9408.23	9232.56	9135.90

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	09-Feb-2009	1290.27	1004.88	285.39

 

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	09-Feb-2009	650.51	696.49	-45.98

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

Weekly Market Outlook

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2852 level, rally may continue up to 2871-2873 zone by non-stop.Support at 2819-2821 zone.
Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 2798-2800 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2779-2781 zone by non-stop.
Below 2723-2725 zone, expect panic up to 2704-2706 zone and buying can be done at around this zone. Stop Loss at 2679-2681 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2889-2891 zone it can zoom up to 2902-2904 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

BSE SENSEX
Traders can expect rally further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9678 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 9049 level for your long positions too.

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,280.59. Up by 217.52 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 868.60. Up by 22.75 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,591.71. Up by 45.47 points.
The partially convertible rupee ended at 48.67/68 per dollar on Friday, stronger than from Thursday's close of 48.77/78.
SENSEX Stocks May Zoom

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
RIL will take delivery of three deepwater drilling rigs starting this year as the company begins producing gas in the Bay of Bengal that may more than double the nation’s output. (Bloomberg)
Essar Steel is planning to raise production capacity to 25 MT per annum investing Rs. 178 bn to put up a 6 MTPA mega steel plant in Karnataka. (ET)
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation has decided to triple crude oil import from Iran while reducing supplies from Iraq next fiscal. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
The government assured that it would look at "everything" to push the industrial growth impacted by global downturn. (ET)
Exporters finding it difficult to access foreign currency loans need no longer despair, as the Reserve Bank has raised the interest rate ceiling at which banks can raise export credit in the global market. (ET)
The UK manufacturing fell 2.2% in December from the previous month, the worst streak of contraction in almost three decades, and individual insolvencies rose 8.2% in the fourth quarter as the recession deepened. (Bloomberg)

Weekly Index Outlook


Sensex (9424.2)
Indian equities turned irresolute once more and wavered in a narrow range last week. Bulls warded off a further decline with talks of the goodies that might be doled out in the forthcoming stimulus packages in the US and India. But they could not succeed in luring wary investors back to the markets.

Sensex ended the week with marginal gains. Trading was extremely lacklustre last week as news-flow dried up. Volumes were extremely low in derivatives segment as well since traders are getting flummoxed by the whipsawing prices. Open interest is however creeping higher some positions are being taken ahead of the interim budget announcement.

It was status quo ante in Sensex last week as it neither moved higher nor lower but plodded sideways in a range between 9000 and 9400 instead. The positive divergences in the weekly oscillators continue to lend hope of the recovery extending further. The 10-day rate of change oscillator has moved in to the positive zone and the 14-dayrelative strength index is at 50 implying that the short-term outlook is positive.

The wave counts have not under-gone any change either. The short-term up trend from January 23 trough can have one more leg higher that takes the index to 9516 or 9824. The rally can halt at either of these levels and the down trend can resume. If the index gets past these resistances, the zone between 10000 and 10200 will act as the next impediment.

It is always difficult to decipher a sideways moving market as the traders would have discovered the hard way over the past two weeks. As mentioned last week, the fifth leg of a triangle is being formed since the last week of January. This formation can be followed by an X and another three or five wave formation. Such a move will keep the index vacillating between 8000 and 11000 for a few months. Even if the down-trend from the January 2008 peak resumes, it could halt between7500 and 8500.

The index could move higher to 9516 or 9824 in the week ahead. If the index is unable to get past the first resistance, it would mean that it can move down to 8650 or 8380. Traders can hold their longs as long as Sensex trades above 8950.

Nifty (2843.1)
Nifty too moved in a sideways range between 2750 and 2870 last week. The short-term up trend from 2661 can continue to take the index to2884 or 2967. The index can reverse lower from either of these levels. If the rally continues, Nifty will test the resistance band between 3070 and 3090. Conversely, a shaky start to the week that prevents the index from moving past 2900 will portend a decline to 2576. Supports for the week are at 2760 and 2660. Traders can hold their long positions as long as the index trades above the first support. The medium-term trend in the index is indecisive and a sideways move between 2500 and 3000 seems possible in this period. Global Cues

There was a strong rally in global equities that made most markets close with hefty gains. Volatility retreated after a sharp spike in the early part of the week. CBOE volatility index declined after recording a high of 49.5 on Monday. The over-200 points spurt in DJIA on Friday took the index well above the critical 8000 level. But the resistance zone between 8400 and 8500 needs to be surpassed to instill confidence that this rally can sustain. Latin American indices such as Brazil's Bovespa and Chile's IPSA recorded a fresh high for 2009 last week. European indices such as CAC, DAX, and FTSE gained between 3 to 5 per cent last week.

Chinese equities too shook off the lethargy to make new 2009 highs.

CRB index that tracks commodity movement stayed around the 360 level though sharp moves were witnessed in different commodities. Aluminium rebounded sharply after the breath-taking decline recorded over the last three months. Gold is hovering around the medium-term trend deciding level at $900. A reversal from here will cause a decline to $830 or $800. An upward break-out would give the next target at $988. —

Maruti

Maruti Udyog reversed lower from the short-term resistance at Rs 607 indicated in our last column. Key short-term support for the stock is Rs 545 and traders can play long as long as the stock trades above this level. A reversal above this level will pull the stock higher towards Rs 636. Strong medium-term resistance exists at Rs 636 where the 200-daymoving average is poised. Traders can initiate fresh shorts on a failure to surpass this level. However, positive divergences in weekly oscillators imply that the stock can trudge higher towards the next target at Rs 750. Stop-loss for medium-term investors can be at Rs 506.Reliance

It was a one-day-up-one-day-down kind of a week for Reliance Industries. The stock moved in a narrow band before ending with a meagre Rs 17 weekly gain. There can be one more spurt to Rs 1,364 or Rs 1,405. But the area around Rs 1,400 is a strong resistance that can derail any rally. Short-term traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 1,250. Next short-term support is at Rs 1,200.We had indicated that a symmetric triangle is being formed since the last week of October. The stock has not broken out beyond the upper boundary of this triangle yet. Medium-term view will turn positive only on a close above Rs 1,500.

Tata Steel

Tata Steel recorded an intra-week low at Rs 167.7 before reversing higher to recoup all the losses. The short-term trend in the stock is down since the peak at Rs 260. This decline can continue to take the stock down to Rs 146 or Rs 129. The near-term view will stay negative as long as it trades below Rs 202. Subsequent target is Rs 225. We retain a neutral medium-term view for Tata Steel.

This view will turn negative only on a firm close below Rs 146. Another upward reversal from the previous trough at Rs 146 will make the stock move in the range between Rs 140 and Rs 250 for a few more months.

SBI

SBI reversed lower after the sharp spurt on Monday to end the week with 3 per cent loss. The near-term trend in the stock is weak and it can decline to Rs 1,030 or Rs 990 in this period.
The 200-day moving average at Rs 1,180 will act as a strong short-term hurdle.

The near-term view will turn positive only on a close above Rs 1,200.The medium-term view for SBI remains neutral as long as it remains in the band between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,400.
Since Rs 1,000 is also a long-term support, investors with a long-term perspective can bottom-fish around this zone.

ONGC

ONGC made a half-hearted attempt to move beyond the short-term trading range that had been shackling it down over the past three weeks.
We need a strong surge beyond Rs 660 to propel it towards the next barrier at Rs 736. A cautious outlook is maintained for the short-term as long as the stock remains below this level.
The stock will get support at Rs 642 and Rs 616 in the week ahead.
We maintain a negative medium-term view for the stock as long as it trades below Rs 750. A close above Rs 750 would pave the way for a rally to Rs 810.

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
WWIL, Jindal Steel, Grasim, GE Ship, GT Offshore, Neyveli Lig, SAIL, Polaris, Balram Chini & ACC.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
DLF, Edu Comp, Aban, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, Divis Lab, GDL, Gitanjali, Tulip & Auro Pharma.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

NIFTY & SENSEX LEVELS FOR 9TH FEB 2009

	2843.10	( 2.27 %)	63.05
		1	2	3
Resistance		2870.85	2898.60	2944.70
Support		2797.00	2750.90	2723.15

	9300.86		( 2.31 %)	209.98
			1	2	3
Resistance			9361.96	9423.07	9524.75
Support			9199.17	9097.49	9036.38

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	06-Feb-2009	1273.17	1155.94	117.23

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	06-Feb-2009	518.2	386.53	131.67

Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns

There are few candlestick patterns that give a fairly accurate warning about an impending reversal in prices. Bullish and bearish engulfing patterns belong to this class of candlestick patterns.
The ease with which they can be identified also contributes to their popularity and wide usage. To form the bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, what is needed is a pair of candles.
A bullish engulfing candle occurs following a significant downtrend when a large white candlestick's body absolutely covers a smaller black candlestick formed in the previous session.
It is enough if the body of the first candle is covered or engulfed by the second candle. It is not imperative that the shadows of the previous candle are covered.
This pattern is more successful when it is formed in the oversold area that occurs at the end of an extensive downtrend.

The larger the candle that is engulfed, the more effective the reversal signal is. Since the second candle is formed when the price opens lower that the previous day's close and closes strongly above it, it implies that the investor sentiment is turning bullish.

Let us illustrate bullish engulfing pattern with an example. Refer to the Bank of India chart below. The stock was on downtrend from mid-May to early-July 2008 low.
After forming a large bullish engulfing candlestick pattern at around Rs 200, the downtrend got arrested. Subsequently, the stock began to rally higher.

A bearish engulfing candle occurs towards the end of a significant up trend. When the body of a large black candlestick completely covers a smaller white candlestick's body, such a pattern is known a bullish engulfing pattern.
This pattern is more successful when it is formed in the overbought area that appears at the end of an prolonged uptrend.
Chennai Petroleum's chart represents bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. After finding support at around Rs 245 in mid-March 2008, the stock rallied up to Rs 400 levels.
However, after reaching an overbought level, the stock reversed direction forming a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern.
There was a change in investor sentiment at that peak which was indicated by the black engulfing candle. Later on, the stock's decline prolonged and it reached Rs 245.

Time spreads: Trade set-up for volatility bets
Many option traders lose on time spreads even though the underlying moves in the direction required of the set up. —

An options trader who recently set up put time spread lost despite the S&P CNX Nifty declining in value. We found that many options traders appear to be grappling with the following question regarding time spreads: Why are long spreads not profitable even though the underlying security moves in the required direction?

This article discusses the time spread and explains how the spread moves due to change in volatility and change in the time value.

It shows that the set up is optimal for traders who want to bet on volatility.

Trade set up
Suppose a trader has a neutral view on the S&P CNX Nifty but expects the volatility to explode. The trader could set up long time spreads (short spreads for imploding volatility) because they are also a bet on volatility.
We will assume that the trader prefers at-the-money (ATM) puts. The reason is that more traders currently hold a negative view on the market.
Besides, ATM options are more sensitive to change in volatility than in-the-money (ITM) or out-of-the-money (OTM) options.
The trader buys March 2800 puts and sells the February 2800 puts for a net debit of 65 points (Thursday prices) when the spot index is 2775.
How would the spread behave if the volatility moves up from 50 to 55 per cent by February 19, but the Nifty remains at 2775?

The March puts would be worth 190 points and the February puts would be 95 points. The trader could close the position for 95 points net.
With an initial debit of 65 points, the position would generate 30 points not including brokerage and slippage costs.

But what if the trader's view on volatility turns wrong? Suppose volatility declines to 40 per cent, the March 2800 puts would fetch 140 points on February 19, while the February contract would be worth 75 points.
The position could be, therefore, closed for 65 points. This leaves the trader with no profit on the position.
But why is the trade set-up considered more a bet on volatility than a view on the underlying?

Volatility Vs Time value
If the Nifty declines to 2650 by February 19 with no sizable change in volatility, the March 2800 puts would be worth 240 points and the February puts 170 points. With the initial debit of 65 points, the trader would be left with just 5 points profit.

Importantly, the 125 points decline on the Nifty would not be enough for spread to become profitable. The reason is that when Nifty declines, the near-month contract moves faster than the next-month contract. This can be understood intuitively.

Next-month ATM puts carry higher value than the near-month contracts. When the underlying declines in value after 14 days, the next-month contract loses more time value.
And this reduces the gain due to the ATM option becoming ITM.
The opposite is true with volatility - longer the maturity, greater the sensitivity of the option to change in volatility.

The next-month contract, therefore, rises faster than the near-month option when volatility increases from 50 to 55 per cent.
Traders can best appreciate time spreads when opposing factors- loss in time value and increase in volatility — act simultaneously on the position.

Suppose Nifty declines to 2650 on February 19 and the volatility jumps from 50 to 55 per cent. With the February 2800 puts at 96 points and the March puts at 191 points, the trader can close the position for 95 points. The initial debit of 65 points would mean that the position would carry 30 points profit.

An increase in volatility by 5 percentage points, thus, changes the position from a gain of 5 to 30 points.

Conclusion
Traders should appreciate the fact that time spreads are different from all other spreads, as time value and volatility have opposing effects on the position. It is, therefore, important for a trader to have a view on volatility before setting up the spread.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 6th Feb 2009

Headlines for the day
    Corporate News Headline
Ashok Leyland and Japan´s Nissan are reviewing business plans for their three joint ventures that envisaged an investment of Rs. 23 bn for manufacturing of light commercial vehicles, power trains, and technology development. (ET)
Era Infra bagged a Rs. 2.23 bn order from state-run power utility NTPC for engineering-related works for its thermal power project in Nagpur. (BS)
Reliance Industries will start supplying natural gas from the Dhirubhai wells in the Krishna-Godavari basin in AP from the third week of February. (BS)
    Economic and Political Headline
Inflation dipped to 5.07% for the week ended January 24 from 5.64% in the previous week due to falling prices of fruit and vegetables and manufactured goods. (BS)
The Commerce Secretary G K Pillai said that the positive impact of the packages to stimulate the economy will be seen from June. (BS)
The Bank of England cut the benchmark interest rate to 1% from 1.5%, which lowest since the bank was founded in 1694 to help drag the British economy out of the deepening recession. (Bloomberg)

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O) Above 2778 level, expect short covering up to 2806-2808 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2833-2835 zone by non-stop. Support at 2756 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 2747-2749 zone and thereafter it can touch 2740 level by non-stop. Multiple support zones at 2710-2712 zone & 2719-2721 zone. Break below these zones can create some panic up to 2682-2684 zone and those oppurtunities can be used to buy. Stop Loss at 2645-2647 zone. On Positive Side, cross above 2843-2845 zone it can zoom up to 2870-2872 zone and thereafter it will touch 2889-2891 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue. Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX If starts move up then exit long positions. Bulls got trapped. Short-Term Investors: Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9678 level on upper side. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9049 level for your long positions too. 3 closes below 9049 level, it can tumble up to 8734 level by non-stop.

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,063.07. Up by 106.41 points. The Broader S&P 500 closed at 845.85. Up by 13.62 points. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,546.24. Up by 31.19 points. The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.77/78 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of 48.82/83.

Strong & Weak futures This is list of 10 strong futures: 

WWIL, Polaris, Jindal steel, Balram Chini, Dena Bank, Grasim, BEL, ACC, HCL Tech & Renuka. 

And this is list of 10 Weak Futures: DLF, Edu Comp, Aban, HDIL, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, Divis Lab, GDL, Gitanjali & Pantaloon. Nifty is in Up Trend.

METAL INDEX Stocks May Zoom

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR TODAY

	2780.05	( -0.82 %)	-23.00
		1	2	3
Resistance		2812.95	2845.85	2874.90
Support		2751.00	2721.95	2689.05

	9090.88		( -1.21 %)	-110.97
			1	2	3
Resistance			9219.62	9348.36	9449.63
Support			8989.61	8888.34	8759.60

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	05-Feb-2009	1211.65	1238.62	-26.97

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	05-Feb-2009	419.64	520.36	-100.72

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 05.02.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
RIL will soon launch Madhya Pradesh´s first coal bed methane power plant in Shahdol district in the state and would later start work for setting up three units of 410 MW each for the 1,250 MW plant. (BS)
Indian Oil Corporation can buy up to 1.5 MT of crude oil a year from Cairn India from the latter´s Rajasthan fields. (BS)
Cairn India is planning to invest USD 3.8 bn in three blocks out of its 25 discoveries in Rajasthan, more than double the previously approved cost of USD 1.5 bn. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
The government´s direct tax collection was Rs. 1,000 bn short of budget estimate, with barely two month remaining for the current financial year to end. The tax collection till February 1 stood at Rs 2,470 bn, while the budget estimate was Rs. 3,650 bn. (BS)
The government is considering another stimulus package for the housing industry, in terms of providing cheaper input costs and low cost of money. (ET)
The US service industries shrank at a slower pace than forecast in January, a positive trend threatened by soaring joblessness that will likely cause further cutbacks in consumer spending. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
WWIL, Polaris, HTMT Global, Bindal Agro, Balram Chini, Jindal Steel, BEL, Maruti, Dena Bank & Renuka.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
DLF, Edu Comp, HDIL, Aban, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, GDL, Divis Lab, GItanjali & Pantaloon.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Below 2770 level, expect profit booking up to 2742-2744 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2724-2726 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 2791 & 2807 levels. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 2816-2818 zone and thereafter it can touch 2834-2836 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 2842-2844 zone, it can zoom up to 2860-2862 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2913-2915 zone and supply expected at around this zone.
On Negative Side, break below 2715-2717 zone can create panic up to 2698-2700 zone and rebound expected at around this zone. Stop Loss at 2680-2682 zone.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2728 level, it can zoom up to 2942 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
Traders can expect bounce.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9678 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 9049 level for your long positions too.

Trading Calls 05th Feb 2009
USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading
Buy ACC-531 for 545 with sl 627 [Trading]
Buy Maruthi-602 for 614-620 with sl 597
Buy Gail-205 for 214 with sl 202
Buy ONGC-665 for 720 with sl 655[Breakout]

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2803.05	( 0.69 %)	19.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		2836.60	2870.15	2898.10
Support		2775.10	2747.15	2713.60

	9201.85		( 0.57 %)	52.55
			1	2	3
Resistance			9305.32	9408.79	9479.37
Support			9131.27	9060.69	8957.22

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,956.66. Down by 121.70 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 832.23. Down by 6.28 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,515.05. Down by 1.25 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.82/83 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than from Tuesday's close of 48.81/82.

HEALTHCARE Stocks May Fall

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	04-Feb-2009	1253.86	1280.94	-27.08

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	04-Feb-2009	792.64	508.64	284

--Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 4th Feb 09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
BHEL would set up a joint venture with Kerala Electrical & Allied Engineering Company Ltd for manufacturing products for railways and other industries. (ET)
RIL has begun talks with over a dozen power and fertiliser firms to sell gas from its KG basin after it received the Bombay High Court´s approval last week. (BS)
Cairn India will be laying a pipeline to transport crude oil from its Mangala fields in Rajasthan after the firm agreed to invoice oil sales in the state rather than at the delivery point in Gujarat. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
The Commerce Minister Kamal Nath said that the Indian economy will grow in excess of 7% in the current fiscal year. (BS)
The Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said that the government will focus on boosting domestic demand as the global downturn trips up growth in Asia´s third-largest economy. (ET)
The index of pending home resale in the US climbed 6.3% to 87.7 in December, signalling that foreclosure-driven declines in prices are boosting demand. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Polaris, Balram Chini, BEL, Edelweiss, GT Offshore, Jindal Steel, Triveni, Renuka, Maruti & Reliance.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
DLF, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, HDIL, ABAN, Mah Life, Divis Lab, Gitanjali, Suzlon & Voltas.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

Trading Calls 04th Feb 2009
USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading
Buy ONGC-651 for 666 with sl 645 [Trading]
Buy Tatacomm-431 for 446 with sl 426

Buy Tatapower-754 for 764-769 with sl 751
Short NTPC-176 for 170 with sl 179

Buy Grasim-1273 for 1345 with sl 1250 [Breakout]

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2780-2782 zone, expect rally up to 2791 level and thereafter it can jump up to 2812-2814 zone.
Support at 2749 & 2755 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 2715-2717 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2684-2686 zone by non-stop.
Below 2673-2675 zone, expect panic up to 2641-2643 zone and those kind of oppurtunities can be used to buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side and can be placed at around 2556-2558 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2822-2824 zone, it can zoom up to 2854-2856 zone and thereafter it will try to touch 2918-2920 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
Traders can expect selling further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9910 level on upper side.
On Negative Side, corrections up to 8951 level can be used to buy. Maintain a Stop Loss at 8632 level for your long positions too.


GLOBAL CUES &RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,078.36. Up by 141.53 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 838.51. Up by 13.07 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,516.30. Up by 21.87 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.81/82 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than its previous close of 48.92/93.
OIL & GAS INDEX Stocks May Zoom

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR TODAY

	2783.90	( 0.62 %)	17.25
		1	2	3
Resistance		2826.10	2868.30	2904.90
Support		2747.30	2710.70	2668.50

	9149.30		( 0.91 %)	82.60
			1	2	3
Resistance			9287.85	9426.39	9550.04
Support			9025.66	8902.01	8763.47

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	03-Feb-2009	1137.8	1416.69	-278.89

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	03-Feb-2009	704.56	712.31	-7.75

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 03.02.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Maruti Suzuki India's January vehicle sales stood at 71,779 units as compared to 68,107 units during the same time last year, up by 5.4%. (ET)
GAIL India signed an agreement with IFFCO for looking at the possibilities of setting up a gas-based power plant and a fertiliser unit in India. (BS)
Parsvnath Developers approached banks for 9-12 months´ breather on paying instalments of its existing debt, and plans to utilise the additional liquidity on timely completion of current projects. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
The merchandise exports from India shrunk 1% in December, 2008 and stood at USD 12.7 bn, compared to USD 12.82 bn in the same month last year. Imports during the month increased by 9% to USD 20.25 bn from USD 18.61 bn in the year ago month. With Imports outpacing exports, trade deficit in December stood at USD 7.5 bn, a rise of 31.5% compared to USD 5.7 bn in the same month of 2007. (BS)
The manufacturing activity shrank for a third straight month in January as faltering business and consumer confidence and a sharp global slowdown crimped demand. (ET)
General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC, propped up with USD 13.4 bn in emergency federal loans, are offering new buyout programs to about 91,000 factory employees to reduce labour costs as sales slow. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Balram Chini, Polaris, Jindal Steel, Edelweiss, BEL, Nagar Fert, Neyveli Lig, Triveni, Hind Petro & Hero Honda.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
DLF, Wel Guj, Punj Lloyd, ABAN, Divis Lab, HDIL, NDTV, R Com, Mah Life & Gitanjali.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Below 2718 level, selling may continue up to 2676-2678 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 2745 & 2765 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 2805-2807 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2845-2847 zone by non-stop.
Above 2938-2940 zone, it can zoom up to 2978-2980 zone and thereafter it will try to touch 3058-3060 zone and supply expected at around this zone.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2636-2638 zone. Stop Loss at 2610-2612 zone.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
Traders can expect selling further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9910 level on upper side.
On Negative Side, corrections up to 8951 level can be used to buy. Maintain a Stop Loss at 8632 level for your long positions too.

Trading Calls 03rd Feb 2009
+ve Sector Scripts : GHCL, HOCL, PNBglits, Aloktex
USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy ONGC-639 above 645 for 660 with sl 640 [Trading]
Buy Bhartiartl-615 above 622 for 600 with sl 615

Buy BHEL-1306 above 1311 for 1326-1340 with sl 1302
Buy GAIL-202 above 205 for 213-17 with sl 202

Buy GEShip-178 for 185 with sl 175
Buy KSK-157 above 161 for 174 with sl 157

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,936.75. Down by 64.11 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 825.44. Down by 0.44 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,494.43. Up by 18.01 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.92/93 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 48.87/88.

	2766.65	( -3.76 %)	-108.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		2839.83	2913.02	2952.58
Support		2727.08	2687.52	2614.33

	9066.70		( -3.79 %)	-357.54
			1	2	3
Resistance			9270.53	9474.36	9585.14
Support			8955.92	8845.14	8641.31

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	02-Feb-2009	1239.19	1364.87	-125.68

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	02-Feb-2009	642.06	803.44	-161.38

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381