FII DATA

FII

24/09: -494.40 Cr. (Prov)

DII

24/09: 170.18 Cr. (Prov)

Positional

BOOK 50% PROFITS IN INFOSYS,TCS TODAY ITSELF AND CARRY 50%.
CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.

----------
NIFTY FUT: Unwinding should continue up to 4120.65-4122.65 zone. Rallies up to 4200.30 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.95-4255.95 zone.

--------------------
NIFTY FUT: SL triggered. Unwinding should continue up to 4162.40-4164.40 zone. Rallies up to 4200.30 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.95-4255.95 zone.

US financial bailout package to hit Indian economy
New Delhi: The US Congress will meet on Tuesday to decide on the financial bailout package proposal aimed at cleaning up the financial mess on the Wall Street.The final price for US tax payers is expected to be around $1.8 trillion.The price tag so far is $900 billion dollars and $700 billion more is needed but that may not come easy with the US Congress yet to take a vote and American citizens asking why they should pay more for Wall Street's mess.But US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is optimistic that this may be the silver bullet that could fix the US financial system."Well, what I would say is, I won't bet against the American people. We are an entrepreneurial people, a hard-working people and we will work through this, we always do. I wouldn't bet against the American people and I wouldn't bet against the long-term fundamentals of this country. But this is a humbling experience to see such fragility in capital markets and to ask how did we ever get here," Paulson says.Meanwhile, it is bailout season in the US. American International Group, Inc. (AIG) got a life support of $85 billion while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac got $200 billion. Another $300 billion went to the Federal Housing Administration.But the real question is. Is $700 billion enough to clear up the mess? And what are the implications for the US economy?More money also means the US deficit will balloon to about $438 billion and will make the dollar weak and inflation would rise. A deflated dollar means inflated oil and commodity prices. This will hit the economy of energy dependent countries like India.Foreign investments in the form of FII and FDI will also weaken and this in turn will rattle the economy."I think liquidity is already getting tight in India and global liquidity squeeze as FIIs withdraw money from India is bound to have its impact," Uday Kotak, VC & MD, Kotak Mahindra Bank, says.So it all comes back to the US bailout package. As Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke begin their testimony in front of the US Congress , the world including India will be watching closely because as the last few weeks have shown when tremors on Wall Street has left cracks far and wide in the world economy.

Positional Traders only
HOLD YOUR SHORTS AND CARRY.
SHORT INFOSYS IF TRADES BELOW 1515,TGT 1480,1450.
SHORT TCS BELOW 713,TGT 690,670.
CARRY ALL OLD SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.

-----------------------------------------------
NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE SUPPORTS AT 4204 4170 4153 4123 & RESISTANCE AT 4214 4256

INTRADAY
NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4253.95-4255.95 zone. Corrections up to 4204.10 can be used to buy. SL at 4176.30 level.

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS

CARRY ALL YOUR SHORTS AND PUTS AS OF NOW
NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 4176.30 level. Target at 4212.20-4214.20 zone. BUY AT LOWER LEVELS NEAR SL for intraday

NIFTY SEPTEMBER FUTURE

SUPPORTS AT 4170 4153 4123

&

RESISTANCE AT 4214 4256

INTRADAY CALLS

Cash Market Intra-Day: Sell WIPRO (NSE Cash CMP 375.95) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 379.95 levels
Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy STER (NSE Cash CMP 472.30) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 468.30 level
Futures Segment: SYNDIBANK FUTURES (NSE CMP 68.55) may move up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 67.55 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy NAUKRI / also named as INFOEDGE (NSE Cash CMP 640.00) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 636.00 level.

-----------------

SENSEX (Pre-Market): Higher opening expected. Expected to open high at around 70-90 points higher.

----------------------------

GM!!!!!!! "Opportunity is Missed By Most People Because it is Dressed in Overalls & Looks Like Work."

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 4121-4123 zone for time being.

Hurdles at 4153 & 4170 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4212-4214 zone.

Sell if touches 4254-4256 zone. Stop Loss at 4296-4298 zone.

On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 4079-4081 zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on rallies.

Short-Term Upward Target at 4337-4339 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4037-4039 zone.

----------------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

---------------------

ACC LTD (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall.

Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If breaks & sustains at below 619 level then downtrend may cottinue.

Hurdle at 655 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

TATA POWER FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall.

Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If breaks & sustains at below 986 level then downtrend may cottinue.

Hurdle at 1038 level.

Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

----------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,854.17. Down by 161.84 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,188.22. Down by 18.87 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,153.33. Down by 25.65 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.72/73 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 45.45/46.

---------------------

Market may open with small gap up, Positional target for cash nifty 4000, Be cautious on market and longs, close below 4030 more bearish in intra as well as positional. Keep Cash nifty levels 4080 and 4047 for support and 4177-4168 for resistance.

-------

-ve to Market
1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. SGX nifty -56 6. Gold.

----------

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

US financial bailout package to hit Indian economy

New Delhi: The US Congress will meet on Tuesday to decide on the financial bailout package proposal aimed at cleaning up the financial mess on the Wall Street.
The final price for US tax payers is expected to be around $1.8 trillion.
The price tag so far is $900 billion dollars and $700 billion more is needed but that may not come easy with the US Congress yet to take a vote and American citizens asking why they should pay more for Wall Street's mess.
But US Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson is optimistic that this may be the silver bullet that could fix the US financial system.
"Well, what I would say is, I won't bet against the American people. We are an entrepreneurial people, a hard-working people and we will work through this, we always do. I wouldn't bet against the American people and I wouldn't bet against the long-term fundamentals of this country. But this is a humbling experience to see such fragility in capital markets and to ask how did we ever get here," Paulson says.
Meanwhile, it is bailout season in the US. American International Group, Inc. (AIG) got a life support of $85 billion while Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac got $200 billion. Another $300 billion went to the Federal Housing Administration.
But the real question is. Is $700 billion enough to clear up the mess? And what are the implications for the US economy?
More money also means the US deficit will balloon to about $438 billion and will make the dollar weak and inflation would rise. A deflated dollar means inflated oil and commodity prices. This will hit the economy of energy dependent countries like India.
Foreign investments in the form of FII and FDI will also weaken and this in turn will rattle the economy.
"I think liquidity is already getting tight in India and global liquidity squeeze as FIIs withdraw money from India is bound to have its impact," Uday Kotak, VC & MD, Kotak Mahindra Bank, says.
So it all comes back to the US bailout package. As Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke begin their testimony in front of the US Congress , the world including India will be watching closely because as the last few weeks have shown when tremors on Wall Street has left cracks far and wide in the world economy.

FII DATA

FII

23/09: -924.40 Cr. (Prov)

DII

23/09: 68.77 Cr. (Prov)

COMMODITY CALL

BUY GOLD WITH A STOPLOSS OF 876$ TARGET 915$,940$.

BUY CRUDE OIL WITH A STOPLOSS OF 104$,TARGET 114$,116$.
Positional
CARRY ALL SHORTS AND NIFTY OCTOBER 4000 PUTS FOR TOMMOROW.SHORT RCAP AGAIN IF TRADES BELOW 1210 AND CARRY FOR TOMMOROW.

NIFTY FUT: Unwinding should continue up to 4123.10-4125.10 zone. Rallies up to 4201.35 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.60-4255.60 zone.
Positional
COVER YOUR MCDOWELL SHORTS AND SHORT ONGC FROM THAT MONEY.ONGC TARGET 1023,1003.
CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AND NIFTY OCTOBER PUTS.
Positional
YOU CAN BOOK PROFIT IN INFOSYS,TCS,RCAP SHORTS ONCE
IF RCAP TRADES BELOW1210,SHORT AGAIN FOR A TARGET OF 1150,1130
TRANSFER FUNDS OF INFY,TCS & SHORT BANKS

NIFTY FUT: SL triggered. Unwinding should continue up to 4163.80-4165.80 zone. Rallies up to 4201.35 can be used to exit. SL at 4253.60-4255.60 zone.

Positional Traders
HOLD SHORTS AND ROLLOVER SHORTS IN OCTOBER.
HOLD SBI AND OTHER BANK SHORTS AND RCAP ALSO.
BIG FALL CAN HAPPEN IN 4-5 DAYS IN BANKS.
CARRY ALL PUTS.

INTRADAY CALLS

NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4253.60-4255.60 zone. Corrections up to 4204.50 can be used to buy. SL at 4177.35 level

Cash Market Intra-Day: SESAGOA (NSE Cash CMP 127.70) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 125.70 level

Cash Market Intra-Day: MOSERBAER (NSE Cash CMP 134.40) going up. Sentiment is weak and take a risk and sell. SL at 136.40 level.

NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 4177.35 level. Target at 4212.95-4214.95 zone.

Positional Traders only
CARRY YESTERDAY SHORTS &NIFTY PUTS AS OF NOW.IFspot NIFTY TRADES BELOW4160,TGT 4090,4040
SHORT ESSAROIL BELOW177, TGT170,166.

BELOW194 SUZLON TGT 185, 178

--------------

GM!!!!!! "Be Not Afraid of Life. Believe That Life is Worth Living And Your Belief Will Help Create The Fact."

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 4204-4206 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 4246 & 4254 levels. Above these levels, expect relief rally up to 4294-4296 zone.

Above 4335-4337 zone,

expect a jump up to 4376-4378 zone by non-stop.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4164-4166 zone. If breaks then problem too.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4416-4418 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4123-4125 zone.

-----------------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

-------------------

BHARAT BIJLEE (NSE Cash):

Likely to Zoom. Technically it should move up.

If crosses & sustains at above 1316 level then uptrend may continue.

Support at 1240 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

CROMPTON GREAVES FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should move up.

If crosses & sustains at above 271 level then uptrend may continue.

Support at 241 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

-----------------------------

Sell CAPITAL GOODS Stocks

====-----------------------------------

Market may open with small gap down and on support, So, don't short in first 10-15 minutes. Positional target for cash nifty 4000, Be cautious on market and longs, below 4150 more bearish in intra.

------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,015.69. Down by 372.75 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,207.09. Down by 47.99 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,178.98. Down by 94.92 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.45/46 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than 45.80/82 at close on Friday.

-------------

-ve to Market

1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. SGX nifty -56 6. Gold.

----------

Bombay: A Market Of Six Stocks

Last week the market rallied and investors began asking questions about a market bottom. While macroeconomic issues and market technicals are improving, the overall picture is still ominous. All said and done the market in Bombay is interested in a mere six stocks-Bhel, Larsen and Toubro, HDFC, HDFC Bank, Reliance and SBI. If you do not have any or all of them in your portfolio, then you might as well not be participating in the market.

The reasons are not far off. Falling oil and gold prices are positive, but the big picture is still negative. Once invincible Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have gone into a US Government receivership, Lehman has gone bankrupt, Merrill has been sold to BOA, and Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley may become holding concerns for Commercial Banks. This will conclude the domain for private banking. Additionally, the world's most powerful private financial institutions, from Switzerland's UBS to Citigroup are still reeling from the huge write-downs for billions in bad loans.

With the housing market still in critical condition and the Federal Reserve in panic mode, it's time to make sure your portfolio is well protected for what could be a prolonged Bear Market and an ugly recession. Most investors and fund managers in India while agreeing that the US problems are limited to the Financial and Real Estate markets, refuse to cut earnings for Indian concerns ignoring the draw down effect on Global Economy of a possible prolonged US Recession.

While Herd Mentality does not succeed always, it is sometimes better to stick with the same. The aforementioned Six-Pack is ideal for most Investors in India. Even ShahRukh Khan flaunts his Six Pack Abs, why shouldn't the investors?

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

FII DATA

FII
22/09: 138.21 Cr. (Prov)
DII
22/09: -206.12 Cr. (Prov)

Positional traders
BOOK PARTIAL PROFITS IN INTRADAY SHORTS SO IF A BOUNCE COMES TOMMOROW,YOU CAN SHORT AGAIN.
CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS FOR TOMMOROW
Positional traders
KEEP A STRICT STOPLOSS OF 2080 AND SHORT RELIANCE TGT 1980,1950.
CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.ALSO ROLLOVER IN OCTOBER SERIES.

Intraday

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4167.40-4169.40 zone. Rallies up to 4265.05 can be used to sell. SL at 4301.85 level.

Positional traders
HOLD ALL SHORTS AND PUTS.
COMMODITY TRADERS CAN BUY GOLD FOR A Tgt OF900,915$.

OIL TRADERS CAN BUY FOR A TARGET OF 110,114$.
HOLD ALL SHORTS.

POSITIONAL TRADERS ONLY
IF SUZLON TRADES BELOW 209,TGT 202,195.
IF MCDOWELL TRADES BELOW 1310,SHORT FOR A TARGET OF 1280,1250.
ALL THESE SHORTS WE HAD POSITIONS IN SO HOLD AND ADD MORE

INTRADAY
Cash Market Intra-Day: SESAGOA (NSE Cash CMP 116.65) going up. Sentiment is weak and take a risk and sell. SL at 118.65 level.

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS>>>>>>>

SHORT spot NIFTY IF TRADES BELOW 4260,TGT 4210,4160.

BUY NIFTY OCT 4000 PUT TGT 160,200.
SHORT INFOSYS TGT1590,1560.

SHORT TCS TGT 750,740.
PREFER TO TRADE IN OCT

INTRADAY
Cash Market Intra-Day: RNRL (NSE Cash CMP 83.55) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 82.55 level.

Positional traders

SHORT ICICI BANK TGT 605,590.

SHORT SBI TGT 1540,1510.

SHORT BANKINDIA TGT 275,265.

SHORT RCAP TGT 1250,1200.

SHORT ONGC TGT 1040,1030.

INTRADAY

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4301.85 level. Target at 4222.60-4224.60 zone.

-------------------

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Rally may continue up to 4300 level for time being.

Support at 4243 & 4263 levels

. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4186-4188 zone.

Buy if touches 4131-4133 zone.

Stop Loss is too far on down side and can be placed at 3965-3967 zone.

On Positive Side, if crosses & sustains at above 4355-4357 zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Reversal (Positive) is seen. Avoid Short Selling at lower levels.

Short-Term Upward Target at 4410-4412 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 3910-3912 zone.

-------------------------------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:
IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.
----------------------

SATYAM COMPUTER (NSE Cash):

Likely to Zoom. Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If crosses & sustains at above 375 level then uptrend may continue.

Support at 353 level

. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

HDFC FUTURES (NSE):

Likely to Zoom. Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

If crosses & sustains at above 2401 level then uptrend may continue.

Support at 2284 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

------------------------------------------
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,388.44. Up by 368.75 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,255.08. Up by 48.57 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,273.90. Up by 74.80 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.80/82 per dollar, stronger

than Thursday's close of 46.42/43.

-------------------------------

Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

FII DATA
FII
19/09: 1016.18 Cr. (Prov)
DII
19/09: 43.91 Cr. (Prov)
-----------------------------------

INTRADAY CALLS

NIFTY SL triggered.Short Covering should continue up to 4311.35-4313.35 zone.Corrections up to 4191.50 can be used to buy. SL at 4093.60-4095.60

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4215.50 level. Target at 4093.60-4095.60 zone.

Cash Market Intra-Day: SESAGOA (NSE Cash CMP 102.30) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 104.30 level.

Cash Market Delivery: Buy ICICIBANK (NSE CMP 593.55) and HOLD for 1 Week.Can buy 25% now and remaining later.Not for Day-Traders.

Cash Market Delivery: Buy RELIANCE (NSE CMP 1985.00) and HOLD for 1 Week. Can buy 25% now and remaining later. Not for Day-Traders.

Positional trades

SHORT NIFTY WITH A STOPLOSS OF 4225,Tgt4110,4050.BUY NIFTY OCTOBER 4000 PUT TARGET170,200.AVERAGE IN YOUR YESTERDAY SHORTS IN STOCKS RIGHT NOW

----------------------------------

Headlines for the day

Corporate News Headline

KEC International bagged two orders worth Rs. 1.79 bn from NTPC Electric Supply Company and Power Grid Corporation. (BS)

Pratibha Industries secured a contract worth Rs. 1.56 bn for design, construction etc of water supply scheme along with ancillary work from Delhi Jal Board. (BS)

Jai Balaji is planning to set up a 5MT integrated steel plant and a 1,215 MW captive power plant on investment of Rs. 160 bn. (ET)

Economic and Political Headline

The wholesale price index based annual rate of inflation rate stood at 12.14% for the week ended September 6, 2008, as against 3.46% a year ago. (ET)

The Finance Minister P Chidambaram said more steps would be taken to provide liquidity to tide over credit tightening in the aftermath of fresh global financial market turmoil. (BS)

The world´s major central banks banded together to flood global money markets with massive amounts of the US dollars, in hopes of taming a major source of the tensions rocking the financial system. (WSJ)

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Rally may continue up to 4083-4085 zone by non-stop.

Support at 3998 & 4034 levels

. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 3898-3900 zone.

Below 3800-3802 zone, it can tumble up to 3702-3704 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, supply expected at around 4181-4183 zone. This supply should get absorbed too.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4279-4281 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 3604-3606 zone.

-----------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

-----------------------------------------------------

BHARAT PETROLEUM (NSE Cash):

Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking should happen.

Hurdle at 370 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 340 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

RELIANCE INDS FUTURES (NSE): Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking should happen.

Hurdle at 1981 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 1890 level

. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

----------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,019.69. Up by 410.03 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,206.51. Up by 50.12 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,199.10. Up by 100.25 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.42/43 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than 46.33/35 at close on Wednesday.

---------------------------

OIL & GAS INDEX Stocks May Zoom

----------------

Market may open with big gap up

So pre-market calls will not works today

Profit booking will come at the all resistance

Be cautious on market

------------------

+ve to Market

1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Crude 4. Technical pullback 5. SGX nifty +200

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 3968-3970 zone for time being.

Hurdles at 4020 & 4050 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering

up to 4094-4096 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4139-4141 zone. Stop Loss at 4154-4156 zone.

On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 3923-3925 zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4198-4200 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 3879-3881 zone.

-----------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

Indian Overseas, BOB, Indian Bk, Maruti, HPCL, Union Bk., Mosear Bear, SBI, BPCL & ACC.

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

Ansal Pro., IVRCL, India Infoline, Rajesh Exports, Peninsula Land, Sterlite Inds, NIIT, Seasa Goa, Jindal Steel & HDIL.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

----------

STERLITE INDS (I)

(NSE Cash): Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Technically it should rebound.

Support at 433 level.

Expected to rebound at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.

Hurdle at 461 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

JINDAL STEEL & POWER FUTURES (NSE):

Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Technically it should rebound.

Support at 1225 level.

Expected to rebound at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.

Hurdle at 1334 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

---------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,609.66. Down by 449.36 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,156.39. Down by 57.21 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,098.85. Down by 109.05 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.33/35 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than 46.89/90 at the close on Tuesday.

----------------

Sell METAL INDEX Stocks

---------------------

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Indian Overseas, BOB, Indian Bk, Maruti, HPCL, Union Bk., Mosear Bear, SBI, BPCL & ACC.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Ansal Pro., IVRCL, India Infoline, Rajesh Exports, Peninsula Land, Sterlite Inds, NIIT, Seasa Goa, Jindal Steel & HDIL.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

FII DATA
FII
17/09: -1064.17 Cr. (Prov)
DII
17/09: 948.93 Cr. (Prov)
------------------------------------
POSITIONAL TRADERS YOU HAVE TO CARRY ALL YOUR SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS TILL TOMMOROW.

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS

YOU CAN ADD MORE PUTS OF 4000 SEPTEMBER.

SHORT EDUCOMP WITH A STOPLOSS OF 3510,TGT 3230,3180.
CARRY RELIANCE,RCAP,RPL SHORTS.SHORT ITC,SUZLON, CARRY OLD SHORTS.

INTRADAY

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4068.75 level. Target at 3981.35-3983.35 zone. >>>TARGET ACHIEVES!

Cash Market Intra-Day: ICICIBANK (NSE Cash CMP 563.80) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 569.80 level.

POSITIONAL

POSITIONAL TRADERS

CARRY SBI,BANKINDIA AND OTHER SHORTS.

IF RELIANCE TRADES BELOW 1900,SHORT RELIANCE TGT 1850,1810.

SHORT RPL TGT 140,135.

SHORT RCAP ON BOUNCE TGT 1030,990.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

FII DATA

FII16/09: -1303.41 Cr. (Prov)

DII16/09: 612.36 Cr. (Prov)

Intraday

NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4109.90-4111.90 zone. Corrections up to 4052.30 can be used to buy. SL at 3945.55
Cash Market Intra-Day: ICICIBANK (NSE Cash CMP 586.70) going down. Sentiment is good. Take a risk and buy. SL at 580.70 level.

POSITIONAL TRADE ONLY >>>

SHORT MORE BANKINDIA TGT 273,265.
SHORT SBI TGT 1440,1400,STOPLOSS 1560.
CARRY OTHER SHORTS/PUTS FOR TOMMOROW AND KEEP SOME MARGINS TO SHORT MORE AT 4100-4150.

Positional call HOLD YOUR SHORTS AND KEEP MARGINS FOR HIGHER LEVELS AND STOP PANICKING IN EVERY 30-50 POINTS MOVE.HOLD YOUR SHORTS/PUTS AND CARRY FOR TOMMOROW.

INTRADAY

NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4074.30-4076.30 zone. Corrections up to 3981.15 can be used to buy. SL at 3945.55 level.

Positional traders only SHORT SUZLON TGT 193,185.CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS AS OF NOW.

BOOK PROFITS IN ICICI BANK AND USE THAT MARGIN AND SHORT MORE BANKINDIA.HOLD OTHER SHORTS/NIFTY PUTS.

Positional HOLD YOUR OLD SHORTS AND PUTS.
SHORT MCDOWELL,TGT1270,1230.SHORT ICICI BANK TGT 600,570.IF NIFTY spot TRADES BELOW 3950,TGT3920,3880.
HOLD ALL SHORTS/PUTS
Only positional traders
SHORT SBI ALSO,TGT 1440,1400.
HOLD OLD SHORTS AND KEEP A TARGET OF 160,190 FOR NIFTY 4000 PUTS.
ADD MORE SHORTS NEAR 4040-4090 RANGE.

INTRADAY

Cash Market Intra-Day: GVKPIL (NSE Cash CMP 32.65) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 33.65 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: RNRL (NSE Cash CMP 77.70) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 78.70 level.

NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 3945.55 level. Target at 4020.90-4022.90 zone.

--------------------------------------

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 4054

level for time being.

Hurdles at 4079 & 4110 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4163-4165 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 4217-4219 zone

. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at 4341-4343 zone.

On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 3999-4001 zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on rallies.

Short-Term Upward Target at 4395-4397 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 3946-3948 zone.

------------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

Maruti, BOB, Hind petro, Bharat petro, Jet airways, MPHASIS, Gas Authorit, AIA Engineering, Jindal saw ltd & ACC.

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:

HDIL, nsal prop &Inf. Sterlite inds, Chambal fert, Jindal steel, NDTV, Essar oil, DCB, Rel Cap & KPIT.

Nifty is in Down Trend.

----------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,917.51. Down by 503.99 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,192.70. Down by 59.00 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,179.91. Down by 81.36 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.05/06 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Friday's close of 45.75/76.

-------------

NMDC (NSE Cash):

Likely to Fall. Technically it should go down.

Support at 238 level.

If breaks & sustains at below 238 level then downtrend may continue.

Hurdle at 269 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

WELSPUN GUJ ST.RO. FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall. Suspicion is that yesterday's movement might be false signal too.

Support at 269 level.

If breaks & sustains at below 238 level then downtrend may continue.

Hurdle at 294 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

-----------------------------


--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

FII DATA

FII 15/09: -763.02 Cr. (Prov)

DII15/09: 1328.13 Cr. (Prov)

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

When we hear of the news of lehman brother is going to file for bankruptcy the first thing that comes to our mind is the day when bear and stearns sold all its holding in indian company ,So same thing might happen to the holding that Lehman brother has in indian company , they might just sell the stock in the market at whatever price they can to cover losses , so please see if you hold any of these company and make a wise decision .For info Lehman Brothers are considered as FII for indian market , so they do hold lot of company in its portfolio.

List of Indian Company that Lehman Brothers Hold
>Amtek Auto>Amtek India>Anant Raj Inds.>Ansal Housing>Asian Electronic>Aztecsoft>Champagne Indage>Consolidated Con>Cranes Software>Develop.Cr.Bank>Dhampur Sugar>Edelweiss Cap>Emkay Global>Era Infra>Fedders Lloyd>Genus Power>Geometric Ltd>Godawari Power and ispat>Golden Tobacco>Gremach Infra>IFCI>Indo Asian>IOL Netcom>IVRCL Infrastruce>Kalpana Inds.>Karuturi Global>KPIT Cummins Info>Logix Microsys.>Lumax Inds.>Madras Cement>Mangalore Chem.>Mastek>Nava Bharat Ventured>Northgate Technologies>Orbit Corporation>Pioneer Embroideries>Prajay Enggineering>Prithvi Info>PSL>Rolta India>S Kumars Nation>Spice Communication>Spice Mobiles>Triveni Engg Ind>Tulip Telecom>Vijay Shanthi Builders>Voltamp Transformers>West Coast Paper

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS
YOU HAVE TO CARRY THESE SHORTS FOR TOMMOROW.
IF NIFTY TRADES/CLOSES BELOW 4075,TGT 3960,3920.
CARRY THESE SHORTS FOR TOMMOROW.

KEEP YOUR QUANTITY LIMITED.
KEEP MARGINS INTACT SOINCASE NIFTY BOUNCES TO 4100-4150,WE CAN SHORT MORE AND BUY MORE PUTS.

POSITIONAL TRADERS
BUY NIFTY 4000 PUT,TGT 160,190.SHORT SAIL TGT 132,128.
SHORT ITC TGT 183,178.
SHORT ACC TGT 555,545.
SHORT MCDOWELL IF TRADES BELOW 1300 TGT 1275,1225.CARRY SHORTS

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3945.80-3947.80 zone. Rallies up to 4002.05 can be used to sell. SL at 4098.90 level

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS
COVER ALL YOUR SHORTS NOW.EACH AND EVERY SHORT.WE WILL WAIT FOR A BOUNCE TILL SPOT 4100 TO REVIEW AGAIN.
COVER ALL SHORTS AND NIFTY PUTS.

POSITONAL TRADERS
BANKINDIA TGT 270,265.COVER 50% ITC,REST COVER 50% NEAR 178.COVER PUTS.
START COVERING YOUR SHORTS NOW.LET US REVIEW THE SITIUATION FOR 2 HOURS.

POSITIONAL TRADERS
DONT COVER BANKINDIA,ITC AS OF NOW.COVER TOTAL SULON,RCOM,ONGC,ACC.COVER 70% SBI ALSO,SBI TGT 1400,1380. COVER YOUR ALL,EACH AND EVRY SHORT NEAR SPOT 3980 ONCE.

POSITIONAL TRADERS
COVER 70% OF YOUR NIFTY 4300 PUTS.250 TARGET HITS.
COVER 70% OF YOUR ALL SHORTS IMMEDIATELY.
IF SPOT NIFTY TRADES BELOW 4020,THE TARGETS ARE 3980,3920.

intraday

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3978.05-3980.05 zone. Rallies up to 4066.60 can be used to sell. SL at 4098.90 level.

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4098.90 level. Target at 4026.50-4028.50 zone. SMS sent at 09.58 AM.

SENSEX (Pre-Market): Weak opening expected. Expected to open weak at around 540-560 points lower.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Selling may continue up to 4204-4206 zone by non-stop.

Above 4256-4258 zone, expect short covering up to 4307-4309 zone by

non-stop.

Sell if touches 4355-4357 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and

can be placed at 4436-4438 zone.

On Negative side, if breaks & sustains at below 4156-4158 zone then downtrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4484-4486 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4107-4109 zone.

---------------------------------
Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:
BOB, Jindal Saw Limi, OBC, Great Offshore , Indian Overseas, IndianBk,Bharat Petro, Hind.Petrol.,Mphasis & Karnataka Bk..
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Chennpetro, Jswsteel, Gitanjali, Tatasteel, Gujalkali, Geship, Jindalstel, Sesagoa, Ster,& Hdil.



Nifty is in Down Trend.
-

MARUTI UDYOG (NSE Cash):

Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Rebound expected.

Support at 678 level.

Rebound expected at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.

Hurdle at 730 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

HINDUSTAN UNILEVER FUTURES (NSE):

Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Rebound expected.

Support at 242 level.

Rebound expected at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.

Hurdle at 255 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

---------

1. US DJ Future Market is trading with -300

2. All Asian market trading in -ve.

3. Market will open with Flat / very small gap up and trending towards -ve.

4. Don't trade in first 15 to 20 minutes.

5. More pain in due, so avoid fresh longs

------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,421.99. Down by 11.72 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,251.70. Up by 2.65 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,261.27. Up by 3.05 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.75/76 per dollar on Friday, weaker

than its close of 45.56/57 on Thursday.

-------
SELL SENSEX STOCKS
-------

-ve to Market

1. Profit Booking 2. Continuous FII selling. 3. Technical weakness 4. Rs.Vs$, 5. Inflation 6. Sentiment Weak 7. US Market 8. Asian Market 9. SGX sentiment 10. Leehman will file for bankrupt. 11. more falls expected in DJI today trading.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4189.45-4191.45 zone. Rallies up to 4277.30 can be used to sell. SL at 4341.15 level.
POSITIONAL TRADERS >>>>>>>>>>>>>

CARRY OLD SHORTS COVER 50% TCS SHORT,COVER RCAP SHORTS ONCE.PUT TCS AND RELCAP SHORTS MONEY IN ITC,RCOM SHORTS.
ALSO,SHORT RPL IF TRADES BELOW 154,TGT 150,147

Positional SHORT NIFTY NEAR 4300- 4330,SHORT AGAIN SBI,ICICI,ITC
SHORT RCOM TGT 385,380.
SHORT TC TGT 815,800.
CARRY OLD SHORTS,I HOPE YOU COVERED RELIANCE @TGT
Cash Market Delivery: Buy SAIL (NSE CMP 138.25) and HOLD for 1 Year. Can buy 25% now and remaining later. Not for Day-Traders.

Cash Market Intra-Day: RNRL (NSE Cash CMP 88.90) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 89.90 level.

only positional traders<>>>>>>>>>>>

BOOK PROFITS IN RCAP.IF RELCAP TRADES BELOW 1215,SHORT IT AGAIN TGT 1200,1175.
IF spot NIFTY TRADES BELOW 4210,TGT 4160,4090.CARRY ALL OTHER SHORTS/NIFTY PUTS.
POSITONAL TRADERS>>>>> PEOPLE CAN COVER 50% ICICI BANK SHORTS AND SHORT SBI,BANKINDIA WITH THAT MARGIN MONEY.
BOOK PROFITS IN RINFRA ALSO.
REST HOLD ALL OTHER SHORTS/PUTS.

intraday

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4253.30-4255.30 zone. Rallies up to 4298.60 can be used to sell. SL at 4341.15 level

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4341.15 level. Target at 4285.25-4287.25 zone.

---------------------
SENSEX (Pre-Market): Higher opening expected. Expected to open high at around 100-110 points higher.
GM!!!
"It Doesn't Matter What Other People Say About You. What is Important is What You Say To Yourself."

OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 12TH SEPTEMPER

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Above 4318 level, expect short covering up to 4350-4352 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4294 level.

Below this level, selling may continue up to 4277 level.

Do remember that, 4243-4245 zone should not be allowed to break on down side.

On Positive Side

, rallies up to 4382-4384 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at around 4477-4479 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4509-4511 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4211-4213 zone.

---------------------

TATA MOTORS (NSE Cash):

Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking expected.

Hurdle at 430 level.

Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 406 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

RANBAXY FUTURES (NSE):

Book Profits in this scrip. Technically selling should continue.

Hurdle at 430 level.

Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 386 level.

Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

--------------------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited.

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks ;

Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.

Nifty is in Up Trend.

--------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,433.71. Up by 164.79 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,249.05. Up by 17.01 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,258.22. Up by 29.52 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> was at 45.56/57 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 45.12/13.

-------------

Book Profits in SMALLCAP Stocks

-----------

Inflation at 12.1%, no cool off till Nov seen: Experts

Bombay-Welcoming Shorts

Suddenly nothing matters-Inflation, Indo-US Nuclear Agreement and Politics. What matters is the Exit door and FIIs have used that in unison dumping close to $ 1 bn of stock in just four sessions. And yet this is nothing. Last Friday, FIIs sold $ 25 bn of stock in a single session ramming down Moscow 8 per cent in one day and close to $ 50 bn of sales in the first eight months of 2008. Compared to that the outflows from Bombay have been a mere $ 11 bn so far, but there is another $ 250 bn to go.

All BRIC nations and parts of Eastern Europe were funded by cheap dollar and yens. Beginning with Shanghai most markets ranging up to Bucharest have lost close to 80 per cent from their peak in 2008. Bombay has done better, down 44 per cent in US Dollar terms. But a similar fate now rests for Bombay and it seems imminent. Short of an extraordinary effort, there is now nothing that can stop the FIIs from bolting the Indian Stable. The Rupee will dive closer to Rs 50, the RBI will panic, raise Interest rates even higher to save the Rupee, hold on to its FX reserves and yet net net FX flows being negative the country's cushion of FX reserves will shrink ever more.

So what should we do? Some Short Ideas-Alternate Energy & Ethanol

When you need area the size of a minor city to set up Solar farms, or hundreds of acres of land to put up wind turbines and the ultimate beneficiary of the power so generated would be a few homes, then you realise how much better it would be to short Moser Baer, Suzlon and Webel SL Energy systems.

Or for that matter millions of acres of land to grow Sugar sucks water from the Earth, to convert cane juice into Ethanol and yet an Ethanol producer will never make money unless OMCs pay ridiclulous prices for that Ethanol, and further blend it with Motor Spirits, then you realise this industry too like all other Alternate Energy plays will swing like a yo-yo. These sectors can be added to Banks, Real Estate and Construction stocks, for shorting.

"You know, you saw subprime go first, and then, on a slight lag, you saw home equity, and now in the lag, you're seeing prime go. And it's exactly the same loss factors. But remember, the components of where we are in the states… [Are] very different. And we started doing more jumbos in '07, so a lot of that is — part of that is '07 vintage, which I think I told you at the time we were going to do and grow our balance sheet and gain share. And we were wrong. You know, we, obviously, wish we hadn't done it.

"So when you adjust for all of those things — vintages, CLTV, stated income, where it's done — that's what we're seeing. You know, it's very early in the loss curves…Prime looks terrible, and we're sorry." — J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon

Eventually, though, Bombay will knuckle down

Mutual funds selling financial stocks into strength. We've finally seen a shift in psychology away from buying financials on the dips. Many managers are preparing for an extended bear market in the sector. Banks with capital shortfalls will announce secondary stock offerings. This will lower the cost of new capital, because higher stock prices allow the banks to issue fewer shares to raise a fixed amount of capital. No such issues here..we can merrilly buy any number of the out of money puts in the Options segment-limiting losses and maximising gains.

The SEC is implementing rules that will make it a bit harder to sell short stocks that are difficult to borrow. I think "naked" short selling (shorting a stock when your broker has not yet located shares to short) must be stopped. This practice gives legitimate short selling a bad name. Stock should be located and borrowed before it is sold short, not the other way around. If your broker cannot locate shares to short, you should move on to another idea, or use put options.

But the hysteria about "rumors" bringing down financial companies has gone too far, I think. This is the defense of CEOs who are looking to blame someone for their own incompetence — incompetence that put their firms in a vulnerable position in the first place.

Short sellers did not conspire to force Wall Street firms to enter the business of securitizing dodgy debts. Firms like Bear Stearns ruined their own companies with the poor strategic decisions they made. The free flow of opinions is vital for the health of the stock market. One should be very suspicious about executives who try to suppress any negative opinions about the value of their stock. Short sellers need to do their own fundamental research and form their own opinions. Only fools buy or sell short stocks based solely on rumors.

Legitimate short sellers are very beneficial for the market. They provide liquidity at market bottoms by buying to cover their positions, and they are often the first to discover and put an end to accounting frauds and stock promotion schemes that siphon capital away from legitimate businesses.

Timing is important in the banking business. Also, as in investing, it pays to be a smart contrarian. Ideally, banks should make as many loans as possible once the economy bottoms. In an improving economy, borrowers can more easily pay down debts. Loans made with disciplined underwriting guidelines ahead of an economic boom can be both safe and profitable. On the other hand, aggressively expanding a loan book at the peak of a credit cycle and an economic cycle can lead to disaster.

Once credit cycles turn, loan portfolios, or loan books, become sources of risk, rather than profit. Look at the experience of Countrywide, which just got acquired by Bank of America for a fraction of is peak value. It blew itself up by aggressively expanding its mortgage loan book at the peak of the credit cycle — which happened to coincide with the biggest housing bubble in history.

Counters in the +ve NRajTV, EKC, Asianpaints, Sterlinbio
Buy APIL-415 for 425-432 with sl 410 [Trading]
Use Strict SL for both long and short
+ve to Market
1. Asian Market 2. US Market 3. Inflation
-ve to Market
1. Profit Booking 2. Continuous FII selling. 3. Technical weakness 4. Rs.Vs$, 5. Inflation 6. Sentiment Weak

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

INTRADAY CALLS

MCDOWELL-N FUTURES (Update): SL triggered. Bears dominated. If not crossing 1425.00 level on upper side then downtrend may continue.
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4266.55-4268.55 zone. Rallies up to 4338.20 can be used to sell. SL at 4338.20 level.

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4338.20 level. Target at 4302.30-4304.30 zone. SMS sent at 12.17 PM.

BIOCON FUTURES (Update): SL triggered. Bulls done good work. If does not break 194.50 level on down side then short covering may continue. SMS sent at 12.13 PM.

Futures: BIOCON FUTURES (NSE CMP 201.50) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 204.50 level. SMS sent at 12.06 PM.
Futures: MCDOWELL-N FUTURES (NSE CMP 1375.00) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 1361.00 level

Cash Market Intra-Day: RPOWER (NSE Cash CMP 169.25) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 171.25 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: JPASSOCIAT (NSE Cash CMP 165.50) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 167.50 level.

POSITIONAL TRADERS>>>>COVER 50% OF RELCAP SHORTS AND USE THAT MONEY TO SHORT BANKINDIA OR ANY OTHER SHORTS.
AVERAGE IN LOOSING SHORTS AND CARRY 100% PUTS.

POSITIONAL TRADERS NEAR 4260-4220,COVER 20% OF YOUR PROFITABLE SHORTS.
DON'T COVER INTO LOSSES.
YOU ALL CAN STILL SHORT SBI,BANKINDIA,ITC,ACC.
CARRY ALL PUTS.

POSITIONAL TRADERS
HOLD YOUR OLD SHORTS,I HAVE BEEN SAYING THIS FROM 4480,
STILL HOLD IT,NIFTY CAN HIT 4220,4160 AND EVEN MORE V.SOON.
HOLD 4300 PUTS TARGET 160,200.

>>>>>>>>>>>.PEOPLE WHO WERE SHORT IN SAIL AND RELIANCE CAN COVER ONCE AND USE THIS MARGIN TO SHORT ANY OTHER SHARE AND PULL UP YOUR AVERAGE IN OTHER SHORTS. HOLD OLD SHORTS

Positional HOLD ALL YOUR OLD SHORTS/NIFTY PUTS FOR A Tgt OF 4260,4220.

SHORT SBI TGT 1490,1460.

SHORT ACC TGT 580,570.ITC TGT 188,185.

SHORT SUZLON TGT 232,226.

------------

GM!!!! "The True Measure of An Individual is How He Treats A Person Who Can Do Him Absolutely No Good."

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Above 4431 level, expect short covering up to 4467-4469 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4407 level.

Below this level, selling may continue up to 4386-4388 zone.

Do remember that, 4350-4352 zone should not be allowed to break at any cost.

On Positive Side, rallies up to 4503-4505 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 4539-4541 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term Upward Target at 4574-4576 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4314-4316 zone.

-------

STERLITE INDS (I) (NSE Cash):

Book Profits in this scrip. Technically it should go down.

Hurdle at 519 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 492 level. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

JINDAL STEEL & POWER FUTURES (NSE):

Book Profits in this scrip. Technically it should go down.

Hurdle at 1738 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

Support at 1629 level

. Should not be allowed to break at any cost.

-------

US MARKET Closed Flat with +38 & All Asian market trading in �ve. Market will open with gap up and trending towards �ve. Closing below 4400 will be very bearish. Don't trade in first 15 to 20 minutes, highly volatility expected

----------

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited.

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks

;

Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.

---------

Counters in the +ve

NFL, HOPFL, Birlacorp, Nalco,Laxmimach

　

Short BHEL-1711 below 1700 for 1640 with sl 1720 [Trading]

Short HDFC-2319 below 2305 or 2290-2270 with sl 2317

　

Short Tatachem-301 for 290-285 with sl 305

Short Tatapower-1051 for 1030-1000 with sl 1061

　

Short Relcapital-1331 for 1307 with sl 1340

　

Buy TTML-27.35 for 30 with sl 26.90 [positional]

Buy SUZLON-243 for 253,257 with sl 239

　

Use Strict SL for both long and short

-----------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,268.92. Up by 38.19 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,232.04. Up by 7.53 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,228.70. Up by 18.89 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.12/13 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Tuesday's close of 44.84/85.

----------------

-ve to Market

1. Asian Market 3. Profit Booking 4. Continuous FII selling. 5. Technical weakness 4. Rs.Vs$, 5. Inflation

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

 

Nifty Future has support at 4300, 4265 and 4190 levels. It will face Resistance at 4445 and 4540 levels. In the forthcoming week, Nifty must retain back its momentum and break out from the sideways movement, otherwise, bears would take control. Thus, for the Bulls to remain in view, support level of 4265-300 level must be maintained.

: Wait for more signals before turning positive

At the recent low of 12514 points, the Sensex has tested the 12800-12000-pts support zone and has since then attempted a corrective rally. During the past trend phases in the Sensex, a monthly moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) cross-down below its trigger line, have, typically, led to a significant value erosion, with the corrective phase lasting, at least, for a year.

 Therefore, immediate rallies would be interpreted as corrective in nature until the medium-term technical parameters turn positive. The recent upmove in the Sensex since the low of 12514 pts has been very sharp. The upside gap of July 23, 2008 had created a bullish 'Island Reversal Gap' on the daily charts between 14510 pts and 14519 pts.

Normally, the implications of this on the medium-term outlook would be very positive, especially since the "Island" comprised of 22 trading sessions. When a stock indicates an uptrend, trades above the gap which occurs, then gaps back down and trades below the initial price, an island reversal has occurred
 However, the Sensex has since run into a strong resistance zone between 15026 pts and 15390 pts. The monthly mid-point of June 2008 is at 15026 pts. The 50% retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak (17735 pts) is at 15124 pts. The positive implications of the bullish "Island Reversal Gap" would thus get negated if the Sensex has a daily close below 14104 pts (the close on July 22, 2008). The Sensex is then expected to have an initial downside of 13513 pts, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent rise from 12514 pts to 15130 pts.

: f the bearish "Island reversal gap" of 14484-14568 pts is immediately filled and the Sensex manages to decisively overhaul the resistances between 15130 pts and 15390 pts, the ongoing upmove would continue. The Sensex may then test higher levels between 16618 pts and 16860 pts.

 The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from the May 2008 peak is at 16618 pts while 16860 pts is the 50% retracement level of the entire fall from the January 2008 peak. Hence, one would await further confirmation before turning positive on the medium-term outlook.

 India stock investors should buy on dips: Lehman

MUMBAI: Indian stock markets may fall by 10-15 percent in the short-term, but index levels between 12,500 and 13,000 can be viewed as buying opportunities in the coming year as inflation has peaked, Lehman Brothers said in a report.

The benchmark BSE index may trade between 14,000 and 19,685 in the next 12 months, Lehman said in the report dated Sept. 3 and released to the media on Friday.

Investors should consider buying shares in auto, media, consumer, telecom, real estate and pharma companies as well as banks, the research house said. Capital goods, non-ferrous metals and cement companies can be avoided, it added.

Double-digit inflation and subsequent monetary tightening by the central bank fuelled concerns of an economic slowdown and send the benchmark BSE index down 28.6 percent this year. 
Inflation, which rose to 12.63 percent in August, was mostly driven by commodities and is likely to abate in the second half of current fiscal year on easing crude oil prices, Lehman said.

However, the central bank may continue with its tight monetary policy because of fiscal deficit concerns, Lehman said. With federal elections due early next year, the government is likely to boost spending, the research house added.

The government's expenses will likely balloon on higher subsidies to fertiliser companies, oil bonds, farm loan waivers and wage increases for government employees, said Lehman.

Interest rates to consumers and companies may remain high in the next three-six months and 10-year yields will likely stay firm in coming months, the research house added. 
Corporate earnings have been affected by higher interest rates, rising raw material costs and high yields, but margins are likely to stabilise in coming quarters in a deflationary commodity environment, Lehman added.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

positional traders

SHORT RELINFRA TGT 1010,990.

SHORT ACC TGT 585,575.

CARRY ALL OLD SHORTS ALSO.

POSITIONAL TRADERS
COVER INTRADAY SHORTS,KEEP SOME MARGIN WITH YOU,IF A BOUNCEBACK COMES TOMMOROW ,WE WILL SHORT AGAIN.
HOLD ALL OLD SHORTS AND NIFTY 4300 PUTS.

Indtraday calls

NIFTY FUT: Unwinding should continue up to 4343.00-4345.00 zone. Rallies up to 4430.75 can be used to exit. SL at 4503.10-4505.10 zone.

INVESTMENT BUY: Buy KEC (NSE Cash CMP 14.00) and can HOLD for One Year. Start buy 25% now and remaining later

NIFTY FUT: Unwinding should continue up to 4406.75-4408.75 zone. Rallies up to 4452.00 can be used to exit. SL at 4503.10-4505.10 zone.

NIFTY FUT: SL triggered. Unwinding should continue up to 4438.60-4440.60 zone. Rallies up to 4494.50 can be used to exit. SL at 4503.10-4505.10 zone. SMS sent at 12.12 PM.

NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 4470.50 level. Target at 4503.10-4505.10 zone
Cash Market Intra-Day: RPOWER (NSE Cash CMP 167.80) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 169.80 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: RESURGERE (NSE Cash CMP 297.00) going down. Sentiment is good. Take a risk and buy. SL at 294.00 level.

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS>>>
CARRY OLD SHORTS,PUTS
IF NIFTY spot TRADES BELOW 4410, then SHORT FOR A Tgt OF 4380,4320.
SHORT SBI,TGT 1490,1470.
CARRY SAIL SHORTS TGT 142,140.
CARRY ITC TGT 190,188

OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 10TH SEP 2008

Strong & Weak futures

This is list of 10 Strong Future

: Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited. And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks ;Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.

Nifty is in Up Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

Below 4472 level, selling may continue up to 4460-4462 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to 4439-4441 zone.

Hurdles at 4499 level & at 4503-4505 zone. If crosses 4514 level then expect short covering up to 4535-4537 zone.

Sell if touches 4546-4548 zone. Stop Loss at 4567-4569 zone.

On Negative side, Multiple Support Zones exist at 4428-4430 zone & at 4407-4409 zone. Below these zones, expect panic up to 4396-4398 zone and if breaks & sustains then free fall will start.

Short-Term Investors:

Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on rallies.

Short-Term Upward Target at 4599-4601 zone.

Short-Term Support at at 4364-4366 zone.

SENSEX

Technically it should fall. If Bears are reluctant mood then Bulls may try to rig up and have caution.

----------------

JINDAL SAW (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall.

Technically it should come down.

Support at 595 level

. If breaks & sustains at below this level then downtrend may start.

Hurdle at 628 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

HIND ZINC FUTURES (NSE):

Likely to Fall. Technically it should come down.

Support at 541 level.

If breaks & sustains at below this level then downtrend may start.

Hurdle at 567 level.

Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.

--------------------

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,230.73. Down by 280.01 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,224.51. Down by 43.28 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,209.81. Down by 59.95 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 44.84/85 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Monday's close of 44.60/61.

----------------

Sell SMALLCAP Stocks

------------

US MARKET Closed in negative with -280 &

Counters in the +ve GBPL, Gemini, Naharspg, Ramcosys, Shantigear, Stretch, Indiacem

Short DLF-502 for 485-476 with sl 508

Short Prismcem-35. 60 for 32 with sl 37

Short Tatamotors-420 for 406-391 with sl 427

Buy HPCL-243 above 245 for 255 with sl 240

Buy NEClife-375 above 380 for 399 with sl 375

Buy IFCI-48.85 above 50 for 60 with sl 48 [Positional]

Use Strict SL for both long and short

All Asian market trading in –ve. Market will open with gap down and trending towards –ve. Closing below 4400 will be very bearish ----

-ve to Market

1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Profit Booking 4. Continuous FII selling. 5. Technical weakness\

-----

----
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

FII DATA

FII 09/09: -391.53 Cr. (Prov)

DII 09/09: 106.27 Cr. (Prov)

 

Strong & Weak  futures 

 

This is list of 10 Strong Future:

Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited.

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks ;

Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.

Nifty is in Up Trend.

 

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

INTRADAY CALLS

NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4574.10-4576.10 zone. Corrections up to 4502.60 can be used to buy. SL at 4436.60 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: JPASSO (NSE Cash CMP 173.20) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 171.20 level. 

Cash Market Intra-Day: BALCHINI (NSE Cash CMP 94.30) going up. Sentiment is weak and take a risk and sell. SL at 95.30 level. 

NIFTY FUT: If uptrend continues then it will zoom up to 4508.10-4510.10 zone. Corrections up to 4469.60 can be used to buy. SL at 4436.60 level. 

NIFTY FUT: Buy with a Stop Loss of 4436.60 level. Target at 4483.35-4485.35 zone

Cash Market Intra-Day: IFCI (NSE Cash CMP 47.55) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 46.55 level. 

Cash Market Intra-Day: SPICETELE (NSE Cash CMP 76.05) going up. Buy with a Stop Loss of 75.05 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: RENUKASUG (NSE Cash CMP 121.40) going up. Sentiment is weak and take a risk and sell. SL at 123.40 level.

Cash Market Intra-Day: AUSTRAL (NSE Cash CMP 225.50) going up. Sentiment is weak and take a risk and sell. SL at 228.50 level. 

POSITIONAL TRADERS 

IF NIFTY spot TRADES BELOW 4430,SHORT FOR A TARGET OF 4380,4320.

SHORT BANKINDIA BELOW 288,TGT 278,272.

SHORT RCAP BELOW 1340,TGT 1300,1280.

SHORT SAIL TGT 144,140.

SHORT ICICI BANK TGT 685,675.
SHORT SBI ON BOUNCE TGT 1530,1510.
CARRY SUZLON,ITC SHORTS.
ADD NIFTY 4300 PUTS TGT 120,150.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Fannie Mae (FNM:US) plunged 85 percent to $1.06, and Freddie Mac (FRE:US) tumbled 79 percent to $1.09. The U.S. government seized control of the largest mortgage-financing companies, eliminating common and preferred dividends and getting warrants representing ownership stakes in the firms.

Financial companies rallied on speculation the takeover will help them recover from the subprime-mortgage crisis. Citigroup Inc. (C:US), the biggest U.S. bank, gained 5.9 percent to $20.20. Bank of America Corp. (BAC:US), the second-biggest U.S. bank, jumped 6 percent to $34.15. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM:US), the third-largest, rose 4.1 percent to $41.24. National City Corp. (NCC:US) rose 5.8 percent to $5.10 

Strong & Weak  futures 

This is list of 10 Strong Future: 

Great Offshore L, Indin Bank, Orient Bank, Jet Airways (ind), Apetch Training, Moser Baer(I), St. Bk. India, HCL Technologies, Bharat Petro, Yes Bank Limited. 

And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks ;

Sesa Goa Ltd. Gnfc Ltd. Triveni Engg. & The Ge Shpg. Ltd, Ranbaxy Labs, Chennai Petroleu, Bongaigaon R, Ndtv Ltd, Guj. Alkalies, Housing Dev & In.

Nifty is in Up Trend.

POSITIONAL TRADERS

THERE IS A RARE CHANCE THAT NIFTY WILL CLOSE ABOVE 4580,ONLY ABOVE 4580,NIFTY WILL BE BULLISH.

CHANCES ARE NIFTY WILL HIT 4380,4350.HOLDING SHORTS MAKES  SENSE

NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 4491.35-4493.35 zone. Rallies up to 4533.05 can be used to sell. SL at 4557.65-4559.65 zone.

NIFTY FUT: SL triggered. Short Covering should continue up to 4557.65-4559.65 zone. Corrections up to 4526.80 can be used to buy. SL at 4517.95-4519.95 zone. 

Cash Market Intra-Day: RESURGERE (NSE Cash CMP 352.35) going down. Sell with a Stop Loss of 356.35 level

NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 4550.80 level. Target at 4517.95-4519.95 zone. 

POSITIONAL TRADERS 

DON'T ADD TO YOUR SHORTS.JUST HOLD YOUR OLD SHORTS AS OF NOW.CHANCES ARE V.HIGH,MARKETS WILL COME DOWN TO SPOT TO 4380,4350 AGAIN IN 1-2 DAYS.

PEOPLE WHO R SHORT IN RELINFRA CAN COVER AND SHORT BANKINDIA INSTEAD OF THAT.

REST HOLD ALL SHORTS/PUTS.

The Indo-US NSG Agreement-Will This Spur FII Sales?

 

The last weekend was unique in many ways. First, the FIIs sold Rs 1900 crore of stock in the cash segment on Friday-the largest single day sales in the past 15 years, the Nuclear Suppliers Group waived certain Security linked objections to India's access to the available Nuclear Technology, thirdly this writer happened to meet officials of the third largest Mutual Fund in India and what transpired was nothing Rosy.

 

All this apart, the head of a Dutch Fund called up this writer to inform, that Nifty was trading 175 points higher in the kerb market at Bhuj on Saturday. How ironic, I feel, that a region devastated by a massive Earthquake about 8-9 years ago should be scripting the destiny of a $ 1 trillion market, with a few balding, paunchy, paan eating Marwaris sitting on the kerb in a non-descript town of Gujarat. What future can such a nation have?

 

The Indo-US NSG agreement

 

It is highly certain that short covering will force a gap up opening on Monday, with the so called beneficiaries of the Agreement-HCC, LNT and Bhel zooming up. But I think this too shall be an opportunity for FIIs to sell. For there seem to be many around, who do not see any future for India and they will sell in any firmness of the market, when they can sell in weakness. Makes no difference, they simply want to be out.

 

The MF view

 

Even though I have no love for Paan eating fund managers, you still bump into many of them at odd times, and simply cant help that they love Betel chewing. This particular CEO I met on Saturday morning manages more than $ 13 bn in Equities and has been on the forefront of the "India Shining" story for nearly a decade now. But compared to the past, this time he appeared shaken and stirred. The reasons: high inflation, high interest rates, an $ 11 bn outflow from equities in 8 months of 2008, weak earnings momentum, slow down in exports, the resource poor nature of India which makes it most dependent upon portfolio flows to fund its trade deficit, a weak Rupee, possible increase in Crude prices again, an indifferent government resting more on past laurels and thinking of just the ensuing elections are not signs in which Bull markets endure and grow.

 

Absloutely correct I feel. On numbers, very surprisingly the EPS forecast for FY09 is still being maintained at Rs 950-1000 and for FY10 at Rs 1100-1200 for the Sensex as a group. On FY09 forecast EPS the Sensex PE at 15 still remains the highest in the region, and on FY10 earnings forecast it drops down to 12. If we assume that Equities as a riskier class are reflecting slowing earnings growth a true PE for India would be 10 to 12 on FY09 earnings, giving a Sensex target of 10000 to 12000 by March 2009. An aggressive target based on FY10 will still put the Sensex at 15000 by March 2009, either way an investor in Equity will make no money over the next 6 months and should Oil prices rise again, the Sensex will sink even rapidly.

 

Any hopers around?

The way forth as they say is to go forth. There is a contrived assumption these days that Nations GDP will rise by 1.5 per cent just through the impact of three upcoming projects-the Cairn Barmer Oil find, the RIL 28 mn tonnes refinery in Jamnagar and the KG gas. However, to feed and carry forth more than 1.2 bn people forward nothing short of a radical political exercise needs to be carried out, which would ensure more and more stable FDI flows to replace the Exiting FII flows, more industrialisation that will create jobs, a policy to control population, rehabilitation of displaced persons from acquired lands and a more authoritarian government that lasts for atleast 2 decades from hereon.

 

If nothing of the sort happens, investors can not only forget the stupendous Equity linked returns of the past 5 years, they would do well to forget about Equity investing as such.

Safe Harbor Statement:

Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.

 

Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

ONLY POSITIONAL TRADERS 

Nifty spot will again feel strong pressure near 4440-4470 on Closing Basis.so,chances are very high,nifty will fall back to 4320,4220 soon in 2-3 days.

------------

However, the nuclear deal still needs to be ratified by the US Congress before it could take force. The Congress must act before adjourning in late September for US presidential elections.If that does not happen then the deal could be left to an uncertain fate under a new US administration that takes office next year.

DEAL CLINCHED, INDIA GETS NSG WAIVER

Vienna: The 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group has approved a US plan to engage in nuclear trade with India.

The approval came after almost three days of meeting in Vienna on Saturday.

National Security Advisor MK Narayanan has confirmed

Report sees change in Finance Minister

Barclays Capital says in its research report that the current Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, will be replaced by Dr C. Rangarajan, the ex-chairman of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister, in the next few weeks.

"The appointment of Dr Subbarao (as RBI Governor) and the possibility of Dr Rangarajan being made the new finance minister, is a response, in our view, by the Prime Minister to embark with a fresh economics team to address the inflation problem and large off-budget subsidies…", says the research report.

When contacted over telephone, the author of the report, Mr Sailesh K. Jha, Senior Regional Economist with Barclays Capital, told Business Line that "the change is imminent" and this was what he had gathered from his discussions with various policy makers in top echelon of the Government before he authored the report.

NSG round 2: India renews vow to avoid arms race

Vienna: The United States came out with a "changed draft" on Friday night to find the elusive consensus among the 45-members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group on a "clean waiver" that will allow commerce between India and the powerful cartel that controls the global supply of nuclear fuel, equipment and technology.

Negotiations between the three parties, the US, the NSG members and India, went on till late night as serious attempts were on to reach an agreement on the new wordings in the draft that will be acceptable to all.

Austria, Ireland and New Zealand, were the three countries in the 45-member group that prevented a consensus from emerging in the NSG on an India-specific waiver. They insisted that provisions be brought in the draft that will ensure that all commercial dealing with India be stopped the moment it conducts another nuclear test.

External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee issued a statement re-affirming India's commitment to a "voluntary moratorium" on further tests. But the three members of the NSG remained sceptical and insisted that the commitment should be legal to make it more binding.

The on-going negotiations are aimed at making the changed language in the draft acceptable to the NSG members and India.

-
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381