| Technical Analysis |
| Nifty continued its upward move on the first trading session of the week and tested 5,320 levels before correcting until 5,220 levels, from where it gained some momentum and again started moving upward. As the technical indicators are supporting an upward move, it seems that Nifty can move upwards initially but expected to fall later in the week due to profit booking. It is likely to face stiff resistance at 5,320 levels and has got a strong support at 5,200 levels. Stocks to Watch: 1) Hero Honda - Buy 2) UCO Bank - Sell |
| Indian Equity Market |
| Indian benchmarks closed the week on a downbeat note triggered by global woes. Sensex wrapped the week losing 135.49 points (or 0.77%) to 17,558.71 while Nifty closed at 5,278 down by 26.1 points (or 0.49%). Mixed quarterly results from heavyweights including Bharti Airtel, ICICI Bank and Reliance Industries couldn't provide much needed support to the market. For the coming week, investors' back home would be eyeing on the global markets. HDFC will be announcing its Q4 results next week along with others including Cipla, Idea Cellular, Dr. Reddy's Labs and JSW Steel. Therefore, stock specific movement might continue to guide the market. Reliance Industries (RIL) and Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) will be in focus as the Supreme Court is expected to enunciate its verdict on the sale of natural gas by RIL to RNRL. |
| Global Equity Markets |
| Global markets were largely set back by the Greece debt burden issue. Almost all the markets were down during the week. Markets further retreated after ratings agency Standard & Poor`s downgraded its debt rating on Spain. Though, some strong corporate earning and better economic data lend support to the markets, but worries from the Euro Zone made the sentiments timid. Meanwhile, US Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold near zero for an extended period. Investor's were further eyeing on the US GDP data which is scheduled to come later in the evening today. |
| Debt Market |
| Price of 10 year bond declined at the beginning of the week on concerns of high debt supplies in the market. However, the yields declined after surging to 18 month high as India's food inflation eased to 16.61% compared to an annual rise of 17.65% in the previous week. Later, bond price remained flat as investors were eyeing Rs 12,000 crore bond issue by government on April 30, 2010 which will include sale of a new 10-year bond for Rs 5,000 crore. |
| Commodity Market |
| Crude oil prices advanced after chances of a rescue package for Greece and strong economic data on the US front. Gold prices gained during the week as persisting Euro zone problem force investors to shift their money from equity markets to safe heaven. |
Sensex (17,558.7)
The Greek tragedy continued to cast its pall of gloom over financial markets last week. Stock prices across the globe crumbled on Tuesday on S&P downgrading Greek sovereign debt rating to junk status. Indian equities were relatively unfazed by this turmoil and the Sensex stabilised itself in the later part of the week to end with marginal loss.
Volumes in NSE derivative segment were at record highs on Wednesday and Thursday as a fairly heavy April series rolled in to expiry. Open interest towards expiry has also been at an all-time high. While the predominance of options in the open interest is comforting, excessive leveraged positions at these levels could turn problematic in the event of a protracted decline.
Outlook for May
If there are two months in the calendar year that are dreaded by market participants, they are May and October. The crashes of May 2004 and 2006 would still be green in the memory of most investors. Seasonal trends in stock markets too suggest a lean period for stocks between May and November. As the famous stock market adage goes, "sell in May and go away". Stock prices in Indian as well as in most other global markets are currently perched near the upper end of their trading band for the year. While the inconceivable (surge from current levels) can not be ruled out in stock price moves, it is more likely that equities enter a sluggish phase in which they move with a downward bias as the May effect takes its toll.
Signs of reversals in some pivotal stocks, incomprehensible price moves in bottom rung stocks, penny stocks coming back in vogue, increase in leveraged trading positions, and the slew of IPOs planned for the near future are some of the other signals that should send alarm bells trilling in the minds of investors.
The Sensex is however already in a sideways correction since last October within the band between 15,000 and 18,000. The first lines of support in the event of a medium term correction are 15,047 and 14,227. Bounce from these levels will result in the index moving in the aforementioned trading band for the rest of the year. Decline below the second support will bring the targets given in our yearly outlook for 2010 in to play.
As far as the upper targets for the medium-term is concerned, the area between 17,800 and 18,500 is a strong resistance zone since many e-wave counts are converging here. Sensex could have trouble moving past this zone just yet.
Short-term outlook
The doji star formation in the monthly candlestick chart also implies that the uptrend that began after the Union Budget could now halt or reverse. The Sensex is in a gentle decline since the April 7 peak of 18,048. The index however has supports at 17,300 where the 50-day moving average is positioned and then at 17,131. The short-term trend will remain up as long as the Sensex trades above these levels.
The near term trend will reverse lower only on a close below 16,600. Presence of the long-term 200-day moving average at this zone makes it very critical support area. Fresh purchases with a trading perspective should be avoided on a close below this level since the next downward target would be 15,650. Resistances for the near term are at 17,750 and 18,048. Close above this level can take the Sensex to 18,200 or 18,758.
Nifty (5,278)
Nifty could not move emphatically beyond the resistance at 5,310 and declined to the intra-week low of 5,202. The near term trend in this index is down since the April 7 peak. Inability to record a strong move above 5,350 will result in the index declining to 5,202 or 5,111 in the days ahead. There is a strong support in the band between 5,100 and 5,120. Rebound from this level can result in the index oscillating in the range between 5,100 and 5,400 for a couple of weeks more.
That said fresh purchases should be avoided on a decline below 5,100. Subsequent targets for the index are 5,000 and 4,950. Close below 4,950 is needed to signal the reversal in the short-term trend. Resistances for the short-term are at 5,350 and 5,400. Strong close above 5,400 would take the stock to 5,441 or 5,494.
The medium term trend for Nifty is sideways since October 2009. The index is moving between 4,500 and 5,400 in this period. We expect the continuation of this range-bound over the upcoming weeks. Strong medium term supports for the index are at 4,540 and 4,300. Upper target for the medium term lies between 5,400 and 5,500. Strong move above 5,500 is needed to suggest that it has breaking up from the consolidation phase.
Global Cues
The sharp decline in most global benchmarks on Tuesday resulted in a negative weekly close for these indices. European indices were the worst hit in last week's sell-off. The DJ Euro STOXX 50 index ended the week down 3.4 per cent. The CBOE volatility index was extremely volatile through the week, hitting the high of 23.2 on Tuesday and ending 32 per cent higher implying that investors' panic level was on the rise.
The Dow was relatively more resilient though the movement of this index last week did mimic a roller coaster. It recorded the peak of 11,258 before ending with loss of 195 points; its first weekly loss in the last nine weeks. It will be interesting to note the movement of this index over the upcoming weeks.
It would have trouble moving above the long-term resistance at 11,300 just yet and a medium term correction is overdue. A decline to 10,720 or 10,390 is possible over the next month. The short-term trend will however turn down only on a close below 10,390. Subsequent target for the index is 9,835.
Some Asian indices such as the Jakarta Composite Index, KLSE Composite, Philippines PSE Composite and Seoul Composite went on to record new 2010 highs last week. Indian equities are however moving in tandem with the Shanghai Composite Index that is in a medium term downtrend. 2800 is the key support for this index. Weekly close below it will mean that a deeper correction is in the offing.
Pivotals
Reliance Industries (Rs 1,033.6)
RIL moved in line with our expectation, reversing lower from the intra-week peak of Rs 1,092 to achieve our short-term target of Rs 1,025. A short-term down-trend is currently in progress from the April 7 peak. Third wave of this move has the next target at Rs 976. The short-term trend line at RS 995 will also provide support to the stock in the event of a sharp decline.
Short-term traders can hold their short positions with a stop at Rs 1,065. The short-term trend will turn positive only on a strong close above this level. Medium-term trend in this stock continues to be sideways and as we have been reiterating, an emphatic close below Rs 1,035 will imply that the stock is heading towards the lower end of this medium-term band at Rs 966. The area around Rs 1,200 will continue to act as the medium-term ceiling for this stock.
State Bank of India (Rs 2,300.7)
SBI initially plunged to the intra-week low of Rs 2,182 but it recovered from that level to move to the short-term resistance at Rs 2,300. As mentioned last week, the zone around Rs 2,300 is the key short-term trend deciding level. Downward reversal from here can pull the stock down to Rs 2,050 or even Rs 1,900 over the ensuing weeks. Conversely, a rally beyond Rs 2,300 will take the stock to its previous peak at Rs 2,500.
The stock has strong medium-term support at Rs 1,900 that lies at 38.2 per cent retracement of the up-move from March 2009 lows. Sideways move between Rs 1,900 and Rs 2,500 is possible for the ensuing months before a break-out takes place in either direction.
Tata Steel (Rs 618.8)
Tata Steel bled further last week to end 4 per cent lower. The stock declined below the first support indicated last week at Rs 635. It can now head towards the next support at Rs 590. Fresh long positions should be avoided on a close below this level. Resistances for the week are at Rs 648 and Rs 670.
We have been reiterating the importance of the resistance zone between Rs 660 and Rs 700 from a long-term perspective. Since the stock is reversing lower from here, it can head towards Rs 520 or Rs 490 over the medium-term. Investors can watch out for buying opportunity around these levels.
Infosys Technologies (Rs 2,738.1)
Infosys Technologies moved sideways with a slightly negative bias and ended the week on a flat note. We stay with the view that the stock could remain in the band between Rs 2,600 and Rs 2,900 for few more weeks. Decline below Rs 2,600 would drag the stock down to the zone between Rs 2,520 and Rs 2,500. Short-term view will turn negative only on a strong close below this level.
The stock continues in a strong medium-term uptrend and this view will be negated only on a close below Rs 2,300.
Sizzling Stocks: Cholamandalam DBS Finance (Rs 125.3)
Cholamandalam DBS Finance began the week on a relatively sedate note at Rs 101. The fireworks came much later, on Thursday when the stock closed 16 per cent higher. The rally continued on Friday to take the stock to the intra-week peak of Rs 133.4.
This stock was decimated in the stock market crash of 2008 as it plummeted 94 per cent from its peak value of Rs 389. Though an intermediate-term uptrend is in progress since last March, the stock needs to cover a lot more ground before it moves away from the bear's grip. Close above Rs 160 would be the first signal that the stock could be moving in to a sustainable up trend. Else here will be a movement between Rs 70 and Rs 140 over the ensuing months.
As far as the near-term is concerned, the stock is closing on the resistance at Rs 142. Some turbulence is possible around this level. Subsequent target is at Rs 161. Supports for the near-term are at Rs 94 and Rs 66. Short-term investors can hold the stock with stop at Rs 94.
Rane Engine Valve (Rs 316.6)
This was yet another stock that went through the roof last week. The stock spiked from an intra-week low of Rs 260 to the peak of Rs 316 on Friday, gain of 22 per cent in five sessions. This is a very thinly traded stock with traded volume of less than 1000 stocks on many trading days. So, not much can be read in to this rally.
Immediate resistance is around Rs 312 that occurs at the 50 per cent retracement mark of the prior down-move. If this level is surpassed, next target would be Rs 375. Short-term investors can book some profits on a reversal from the Rs 320 mark. Immediate supports are at Rs 300 and Rs 280.
Stock Strategy: Consider shorting Apollo Tyres, Bharti Airtel
Apollo Tyres (Rs 70): After hitting its all-time high at Rs 82.5 in April earlier, the stock has been witnessing a steady decline in price. The stock faces major support at Rs 47 and resistance at Rs 76. Only a close above Rs 76 would change the sentiment to positive. On the other hand, if it dips below Rs 62 on a closing day basis, it could retest the crucial support level of Rs 47. It appears the stock is heading for its immediate support level of Rs 62.
F&O pointers: The Apollo Tyres stock futures (market lot 3,400) witnessed a heavy accumulation of over 16 lakh shares on Friday, even as the stock slipped 2.6 per cent. This indicates that the accumulation may have been on the short side. Among the options, calls at strikes of Rs 80 and Rs 75 were the most active and saw a sharp accumulation in open position, indicating the emergence of call writers. This implies that the stock could face strong resistance going forward. Market-wide open interest stood just at 13 per cent.
Strategy: Consider going short on Apollo Tyres with a stop loss at Rs 76 with an initial target of Rs 62; if it declines further, you can wait for a target of Rs 47. High-risk appetite traders can also consider writing Apollo Tyres 75 call, which closed at Rs 2 on Friday. Note that the margin requirements to execute this strategy would be higher.
Bharti Airtel (Rs 301): The outlook for the stock appears to be negative as long it stays below the crucial resistance of Rs 335. It faces strong support at Rs 282. It appears the stock is heading towards its support level in the coming days. A dip below the support could weaken it to Rs 227 and to Rs 172. A close above Rs 335 has the potential to lift the stock higher to Rs 415.
F&O pointers: The stock added open interest along with a price rise on Friday. This indicates accumulation of long positions. However, the counter could witness some pressure going forward. Option trading presents neutral view on the stock.
Strategy: Consider going short on Bharti Airtel futures (market lot 500) with a stop-loss at Rs 315 for a target of Rs 282.
Follow-up: Last week we had recommended going long (for two days) on RPower and IDBI Bank. The strategies did not work in our favour.
Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam — IPO: Invest at cut-off
The offer appears inexpensively priced compared with peers.
Mr Deepak Sanan(From right):Mr H. K. Sharma, CMD, SJVN; and Mr Sumit Bose, Disinvestment Secretary.
Investors with a long-term horizon can subscribe to the initial public offering from the hydro power generation company, Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam (SJVN).
Despite sound earnings prospects, the offer appears inexpensively priced compared with peers. At Rs 24.7 (the retail offer price at the upper-end of the price band), the offer values the stock at a price-earnings multiple of about 10 on estimated earnings for this fiscal. The price-to-estimated book value is 1.25 times. This is at a discount to NHPC's valuation of 1.53 times.
This despite SJVN having a superior return on equity (estimated at 15.5 per cent for 2009-10) than NHPC (8.3 per cent). The company also scores due to low leverage and better net profit margins than its listed peer. Earnings potential may also receive a boost from the revised CERC norms, which are yet to take effect. The dividends paid out in 2008-09 would result in a 3.13 per cent yield for the stock.
SJVN operates the 1500 MW Nathpa Jakhri Hydro Power Station project, a run-of-the river project on the Sutlej River in Himachal Pradesh. The company plans to increase this capacity to 5,500 MW over the next 10 years.
During FY-10, this project generated 7017 million units of power as against the annual design energy generation of 6,612 million units. The plant availability was 102 per cent wll above its normative plant availability factor.
The regulated tariff regime for SJVN results in pass through of interest rate fluctuations, hydrology risk, operations and maintenance and depreciation. Therefore, the company's earnings will continue to rise as long as it expands its power output and maintains higher plant availability.
CERC's new norms for power projects which promise higher return on equity are yet to be applied to SJVN, and this holds potential to boost profits. SJVN stands to benefit to greater extent than NHPC from these new norms, due to its higher equity component.
The Nathpa Jakhri project calculates its annual fixed charge, the key component in calculating tariffs, at a debt equity of 1:1 compared to 70:30 followed by NHPC. Higher efficiency and plant availability also place the company in a good position to earn higher incentives. However, the earnings growth over the next three years may remain muted, given that limited capacity additions are planned in this period.
The first of the additions — the 412 MW Rampur project — is expected to come up in 2013 and will add 27.5 per cent to the existing capacity. This project may entitle the company to carbon credits, which it can later trade to augment revenues.
The Rampur project is a cascade project for Nathpa Jakhri, which would mean that the water would be already de-silted, lowering the silt costs for the company. While hydro projects have several advantages, being a renewable energy source with nil fuel costs, the primary challenge lies in executing the projects. Delays and associated cost overruns are normal. Even in SJVN's case, the 412 MW Rampur project was to have been commissioned in the Eleventh Plan, but is now expected to suffer a delay of one-and-a- half years, due to the slow progress of the head-race tunnel.
SJVN also has seven other projects that are set to be commissioned between 2016-20. This includes the 775 MW Luhri in Himachal Pradesh; the 900 MW Arun III project in Nepal and the 1,500 MW Tipaimukh project in Manipur (a JV in which SJVN will have a 26 per cent stake).
All projects except Arun III are regulated-tariff-based and have no short-term power opportunities. However, given the seven-eight year gestation period between the initiation of the project and actual implementation, hydro projects may entail a high opportunity capital cost with the probability of overruns.
That more than 60 per cent of the projects are to come up over a decade, may put pressure on SJVN's returns. Another risk the company may face is that of regulated tariffs being reset after five years.
The requirement that the company supply free power (12 per cent of capacity) to the state in which it is setting up the project, is also a drag on returns. While it hasn't signed power purchase agreements for 4,000 MW of the planned projects, given the high demand-supply gap and lower regulated tariffs, the output is likely to find ready takers.
Comfortable on funding
The total funds required for 2,500 MW of additional projects is more than Rs 13,000 crore. But the fact that their commissioning will be spread out over a period of a few years means that it would be easier to fund the projects.
Currently SJVN holds Rs 1,487 crore as cash . This coupled with internal resources should be adequate to take care of funding, at a normative debt:equity of 70:30. It is expected to invest excess of Rs 4,100 crore as part of equity, of which it has already incurred Rs 940 crore.
Financials
Internal accruals are strong. SJVN usually sees higher generation during the May- September period as the snow melts. The sales and net profit grew at an annual rate of 5 per cent and 6.5 per cent respectively during the period 2004-09. For the nine months ended December '09, net profits were Rs 775 crore, higher than that for FY-09 (Rs 759 crore), with net margin improving to 51 per cent.
Issue details
The proceeds from this issue for the government is expected to be a maximum of Rs 1054 crore at the price band of Rs 23-26.
A unique combination of infrastructure and real-estate development, with each segment driving the other's prospects, is the company's key advantage.
Ride on the twin advantage.
Investors with a penchant for risk can consider the initial public offer of infrastructure developer, Jaypee Infratech, a subsidiary of the listed Jaiprakash Associates. A unique combination of infrastructure and real-estate development, with each segment driving the other's prospects, is the company's key advantage.
The company is in an advanced stage of expressway construction that is likely to be commissioned two years ahead of schedule. This combined with the availability of low-cost land for real-estate development (with a good part in Noida) provide earnings visibility to Jaypee Infratech. Revenues and earnings could be lumpy until 2011, after which the expressway would start earning toll revenues. Income from real-estate development would be the key contributor to revenues until such time.
The primary risk to this recommendation is that both the business segments are working-capital intensive and, until such time, the expressway is complete, liquidity could be tight. Inability to fully monetise the land bank would also mute growth.
The offer price band is Rs 102-117. Retail investors would get a 5 per cent discount on the offer price. Post- discount, the company's share is likely to trade at 24-27 times its annualised per share earnings for FY-10 on an expanded capital base on listing.
This is at par with infrastructure industry average. On a price-to-book basis, the valuation comes to 3.7-4.2 times; at a marginal discount to IRB Infrastructure Developers, which has a larger portfolio of roads in operation. On an enterprise value to earnings before interest, depreciation, taxation and amortisation (EBITDA) basis, Jaypee Infratech appears to be valued closer to real estate players rather than infrastructure. Given that revenues from real estate are likely to be higher than income from toll, the valuation appears justified.
The company and offer
Jaypee Infratech was launched as a special purpose vehicle in 2007 to implement a single road concession agreement — Yamuna Expressway — that connects Noida to Agra through a 165-km single expressway, built in Uttar Pradesh. The concession would allow Jaypee Infratech to operate and collect tolls for a period of 36 years. This comes with about 6,175 acres of land (translating in to 530 million sq ft of area) for real-estate development for a lease period of 90 years. The land can be developed or sold at the discretion of Jaypee.
The company proposes to raise about Rs 1,650 core through fresh issue of shares, while the parent company, Jaiprakash Associates, would receive about Rs 700 crore through an offer for sale. The offer proceeds would be utilised predominantly to fund the expressway.
De-risked
Jaypee Infratech has timed its capital market foray after two key risk factors have been addressed. One, the entire Rs 6,000 crore debt, of the Rs 9740 crore of project cost has been tied up. The remaining funding has been done through promoter contribution and cash flow from real-estate activity. The current offer proceeds would go towards funding only 15 per cent of the project cost. Two, the company is in possession of 96 per cent of the land required for the expressway and expects to complete the project by 2011, two years ahead of the 2013 target. Three, Jaiprakash Associates, the parent, with wide experience in execution of large projects, is the contractor.
Besides, 70 per cent of the land proposed for real estate has also been handed over to the company.
Due to the above factors, Jaypee Infratech enjoys several advantages: The company would enjoy cost-efficiencies, given Jaiprakash Associates' captive cement production and ownership of stone aggregates. The company is unlikely to be leveraged further as the projects have tied up full funding. The company has stated that it would keep the real-estate development self-financed, as it can sell land to monetise it, apart from developing the same.
Low-cost land
Towards this end, Jaypee has already booked profits for the year ending FY-09 and nine months ending December 2009 by selling residential and commercial plots. It has also initiated development of 24 million sq ft of five residential and one commercial project, 88 per cent of which has been sold and advance received, although none has reached the revenue-booking stage. Jaypee's biggest advantage in this project is the lucrative land bank that has been leased to it. At the anticipated cost of Rs 2,619 crore (besides an insignificant annual lease), the land cost works out to Rs 25 lakh per acre. It has also stated that the cost of a small portion of the land sold in Noida was Rs 50 lakh per acre a couple of years ago.
Weighed against about Rs 5 crore per acre incurred by a few other large players in Noida in recent times, Jaypee's deal could be termed a steal. This edge would allow Jaypee to price its projects aggressively, especially in Noida. The company did launch its initial phase of residential projects at a list price of Rs 2100 per sq. ft, drastically lower than competitors' rates. For the nine months ended December, Jaypee's sales were Rs 525 crore and net profits Rs 399 crore, the high margins arising solely on account of selling plots. The 76 per cent net profit margin is unlikely to sustain once the company's development costs and revenue are brought into the books.
A good part of the revenue for the nine-month ended December came from associate companies for hotel and certain other developments in the township. Going forward, as revenue from residential projects are brought into books, income from associates may dwindle as a proportion of the total revenue. With 88 per cent pre-sales and the entire current development to be completed by 2013, the existing projects could well manage their working capital from advances; even as toll revenues are expected to kick in from 2012.
Real-estate development may turn out to be the key driver of revenues and improve prospects for the expressway. After all, the existence of crucial infrastructure such as road, power (hydro power to be developed by associate company) and water in integrated townships are the key attractions for buyers of property in Tier-II and Tier-III areas.
Toll
Toll revenues on the road project would be subject to the UP Government's toll regulations, which currently allow about Rs 1.9/km as against Rs 1.4/km for the Mumbai-Pune Expressway. Jaypee may have to start at modest toll rates to attract traffic. The expressway has the advantage of operating within a single State, thus reducing hassles of inter-state movement for commercial traffic. Tourist destinations such as Mathura (along the expressway) and Agra candrive traffic volume.
An international airport and extension of Delhi Metro are other factors that could drive traffic. Nevertheless, the expressway cannot at this point look forward to volumes similar to the industrialised Mumbai-Pune route.
Lack of volumes may, however, be compensated by real-estate activity. It is perhaps for this reason that the government has chosen to bundle this expressway project with such massive tracts of land for real-estate development.
The offer closes on May 4.
Strong & Weak Stocks FOR 2nd May 2010
And this is list of 10 Weak stocks:
The daily trend of nifty is in downtrend
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 30-Apr-2010 | 3469.23 | 3113.68 | 355.55 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 30-Apr-2010 | 1516.21 | 1298.6 | 217.61 |
 | 5278.00 | ( 0.45 %) | 23.85 |  |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Resistance | 5297.13 | 5316.27 | 5337.73 | |
| Support | 5256.53 | 5235.07 | 5215.93 | |
 | 17558.71 | ( 0.32 %) | 55.24 | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Resistance | 17635.72 | 17712.74 | 17778.86 | ||
| Support | 17492.58 | 17426.46 | 17349.44 | ||
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Arvind Parekh+ 91 98432 32381
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