Market Outlook 4th Feb 2010

Strong & Weak  stocks

This is list of 10 strong stocks: 

Titan, Triveni, Cummins Ind, Indusind Bank, Siemens, Lupin, SunTV,BOB, Bhushan Steel & Asian Paint.  

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 

IOB, Orchid Chem, EKC, Ranbaxy, Prajind, GMR Infra, LITL, Renuka, ICSA & India Info.

Nifty is in Down trend  

 

SPOT INDEX LEVELS

	4931.85	( 2.11 %)	101.75
		1	2	3
Resistance		4977.00	5022.15	5095.15
Support		4858.85	4785.85	4740.70

	16496.05		( 2.06 %)	332.61
			1	2	3
Resistance			16629.28	16762.50	16972.02
Support			16286.54	16077.02	15943.80

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Below 4914 level, expect profit booking up to 4872-4874 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4832-4834 zone by non-stop. 

Hurdle at 4934-4936 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue up to 4960 level by non-stop. 

Sell if touches 4999-5001 zone. Stop Loss at 5039-5041 zone. 

On Negative Side, break below 4767-4769 zone can create panic up to 4727-4729 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4657.25. 

Stop Loss at 5252.75.

Equity:

TATASTEEL (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 632 level. 

Stop Loss is at 577 level.  

 

Support Levels: 578,584 & 594 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 606,611,621 & 627 levels.

JSWSTEEL (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 1141 level. 

Stop Loss is at 985 level.  

Support Levels: 989,999 & 1045 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 1066, 1077, 1121 & 1141 levels.

HDIL (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 372 level. 

Stop Loss is at 327 level.  

Support Levels: 329 & 338 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 345,347,352,355,358,361,366 & 372 levels.

HDFC (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 2744 level. 

Stop Loss is at 2402 level.  

Support Levels: 2402,2413,2437 & 2490 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 2541,2551,2603,2629,2639,2666 & 2715 levels.

BANKBARODA (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. 

IDBI (NSE Cash): 

 Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days. 

ACC (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days. 

BGRENERGY (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 8 days. 

INDIABULLS (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 5000 CALL OPTION 

Sideways Trend with Positive bias. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 86 level by non-stop. 

If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 51 level by non-stop. 

Support Levels: 55,60 & 64 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 79,82 & 86 levels.

RELIANCE 1050 CALL OPTION 

Book Profits. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 35 level by non-stop. 

If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 12 level by non-stop. 

 

Support Levels: 15,18,20,21 & 25 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 31 & 34 levels.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

STER FUTURES  

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 828 level. 

Stop Loss is at 747 level.  

  

Support Levels: 748,755 & 772 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 788,795,811 & 819 levels.

SAIL FUTURES 

Stock can zoom up to 243 level today & on (or) before expiry. 

If Profit Booking Starts, then expect profit booking up to 209 level today & 194 level on (or) before expiry.

 

NTPC Gets Bids for 77% of Shares Offered on Day One 

Buy Indian Rupee on Rate Outlook, Fund Inflows, Wells Fargo Says 

India's rupee will strengthen in the next 12 months as interest rates are raised to tame inflation and overseas funds add to their holdings of the nation's assets, according to Wells Fargo Co.

 

Bernanke Vows to Defend Fed at Swearing-In Ceremony 

Ben S. Bernanke vowed to defend the independence of the Federal Reserve, work harder to explain its decisions to the public and step up supervision of the nation's banks during his second term. 

 

China May Scrap Plan for Mills to Match ArcelorMittal in Size 

China, the world's largest steel producer, may pull back from encouraging steelmakers to get as large as global leader ArcelorMittal, as it directs mills to focus on improving product quality, a government adviser said. 

 

Wall Street counting down to Friday's jobs report 

Cisco trounces estimates, sees strong recovery 

Bank reform faces hurdle on Volcker rule 

The White House has some quick explaining to do if it wants to convince lawmakers that a proposed limit on risk-taking by big banks needs to be included in financial reforms that are already more than a year in the making. 

Obama: US Must Address Dollar-Yuan Exchange Rates

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	03-Feb-2010	2335.86	1939.73	396.13

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	03-Feb-2010	1003.21	1002.75	0.46

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 3rd Feb 2010

Strong & Weak  futures 

This is list of 10 strong future: 

Titan, Triveni, Lupin, BOB, Cummins Ind., Indusind Bk, Chambal Fert, SunTV, ,Siemens & GTL Infra.  

And this is list of 10 Weak futures: 

IOB, Praj Ind, Orchid Chem, EKC, India Info, ICSA, Aban, Sterlite Inds, LITL & LT.

Nifty is in Down trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):

Above 4850 level, expect short covering up to 4900-4902 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4950-4952 zone by non-stop. 

Support at 4812 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4795-4797 zone by non-stop. 

Below 4745-4747 zone, expect panic up to 4696-4698 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 4999-5001 zone can take it up to 5049-5051 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors:

 Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4657.25. 

Stop Loss at 5252.75.

Equity:

THINKSOFT (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 513 level. 

Stop Loss is at 460 level.  

 

Support Levels: 464,469 & 472 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 482,489,494,498,503 & 506 levels.

COX&KINGS (NSE Cash) 

Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 434 level. 

Stop Loss is at 411 level.  

 

Support Levels: 413 & 414 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 422,425 & 427 levels.

SBIN (NSE Cash) 

Weak. Downward Target as per Daily Chart is at 1901 level. 

Stop Loss is at 2045.00 level. 

 

Resistance Levels: 1998,2010 & 2030 levels. 

Support Levels: 1907,1926,1940 & 1959 levels.

ICICIBANK (NSE Cash) 

Weak. Downward Target as per Daily Chart is at 787 level. 

Stop Loss is at 842.00 level. 

 

Resistance Levels: 827,833 & 841 levels. 

Support Levels: 792,800,806 & 811 levels.

 

ZANDUPHARM (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 9 days. 

ONGC (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. 

JINDALSAW (NSE Cash):  

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 5 days. 

EMAMILTD (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 9 days. 

ADANIENT (NSE Cash): 

Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 7 days.

OPTIONS (NSE):

NIFTY 4800 PUT OPTION 

Explosive. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 181 level by non-stop. 

If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 62 level by non-stop. 

 

Support Levels: 70,77 & 101 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 124,128,141,154 & 171 levels.

TCS 760 PUT OPTION 

Explosive. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 57 level by non-stop. 

If Profit Booking starts, then expect slide up to 23 level by non-stop. 

Support Levels: 26,27,30,33 & 35 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 42,46,49,50 & 54 levels.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):

DRREDDY FUTURES  

Sideways Pattern with Positive bias. Upward Target at 1192 level. 

Stop Loss is at 1123 level.  

Support Levels: 1127,1138 & 1150 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 1173 & 1188 levels.

BAJAJHIND FUTURES 

Stock may crash up to 179 level today & may crash up to 159 level on (or) before expiry. 

On Positive side, short covering may be restricted up to 210 level today & 267 level on (or) before expiry.

SPOT INDEX LEVELS

	4830.10	( -1.42 %)	-69.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		4916.13	5002.17	5053.18
Support		4779.08	4728.07	4642.03

	16163.44		( -1.18 %)	-192.59
			1	2	3
Resistance			16416.58	16669.71	16813.45
Support			16019.71	15875.97	15622.84

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	02-Feb-2010	2475.64	2930.65	-455.01

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	02-Feb-2010	1047.24	1005.31	41.93

Indian Consumer Stocks Downgraded at Morgan Stanley  

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Indian consumer stocks were cut to "cautious" from "in-line" at Morgan Stanley, which cited rising competition and slowing revenue growth.  

Higher marketing expenses, Hindustan Unilever Ltd.'s bid to seek growth through market share and Procter & Gamble Co.'s increased investments in India are among "key sources of pressure" for the industry, Morgan Stanley analysts Hozefa Topiwalla and Girish Achhipalia wrote in a report today.  

"A potential rise in competitive pressures is likely to spill over into stock valuations," they said.  

Consumer companies have lagged behind the 78 percent rally in the Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index over the past 12 months. Hindustan Unilever fell 11 percent during the period, the worst performer among the gauge's 30 members. The stock has dropped every day since the CNBC-TV18 reported on Jan. 29 it may cut detergent prices by as much as 30 percent.  

The analysts downgraded Dabur India Ltd. to "equal- weight" from "overweight," saying that its valuations appear "less compelling." They also lowered their share-price estimates for Hindustan Unilever and Godrej Consumer Products Ltd., while raising price forecasts for Colgate-Palmolive (India) Ltd., Marico Ltd. and Tata Tea Ltd.  

Dabur, a maker of products ranging from shampoos to beverages, has gained 87 percent in the past year and is currently trading at 36 times reported earnings. The Sensex has a multiple of 24 times.  

The analysts reiterated their "underweight" ratings on Hindustan Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive and maintained their "overweight" recommendations for ITC Ltd. and Tata Tea.

 

India's Infosys, Tata Consultancy reportedly hiring new staff 

Infosys Technologies Ltd. and Tata Consultancy Services Ltd. both plan to continue increasing staff in the fourth quarter, the Press Trust of India reported Tuesday, citing company executives.  

"We have made gross additions of over 21,000 people, including subsidiaries till Q3 FY '10. With utilizations at optimum levels, we will look at aggressive hiring in the current quarter," the PTI quoted TCS' vice president and head of global human resources, Ajoy Mukherjee, as saying.  

"Infosys will be hiring 6,000 people in Q4 FY'10...With this, the total gross hiring in FY '10 will be 24,000 (gross)," an Infosys spokesperson said 

 

Toyota U.S. sales reel from crisis; GM, Ford surge  

 

Banks shouldn't be hedge funds, Volcker tells Senate 

Federal safety net shouldn't cover speculators, Obama adviser says 

 

Chinese Attacks on Google a 'Wake-Up Call' for US: Blair 

 

Legislation poses risks for U.S. bank system: S&P 

A White House proposal to curb excessive risk-taking by banks has sparked fears it could crimp banks' access to funding, which Standard & Poor's on Tuesday said might cause it to downgrade its U.S. banking system assessment. 

 

Pending home sales edge up, vacancies rise

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 2nd Feb 2010

Strong Stocks

This is list of 10 Strong Stocks: 

Titan,Triveni, Lupin, OBC, SunTV, BOB, Cummins Ind.,GTL Infra, Siemens & Asian Paint.
Weak Stocks
This is the list of 10 Weak Stocks: 

IOB,Orchid Chem, LT, ICSA, Prajind, IVRCL Infra, Aban, Sterlite, EKC & India Info.

Daily trend of the market is down 
_________________________________________________________________
SPOT INDEX LEVELS

	4899.70	( 0.36 %)	17.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		4928.50	4974.95	5056.20
Support		4800.80	4719.55	4673.10

	16356.03		( -0.01 %)	-1.93
			1	2	3
Resistance			16504.82	16651.68	16913.05
Support			16096.59	15835.22	15688.3

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Rally may continue up to 4934-4936 zone for time being. 

Support at 4863 & 4889 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4823-4825zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4785-4787 zone by non-stop. 

Below 4772-4774 zone, expect panic up to 4734-4736 zone by non-stop. 

On Positive Side, cross above 4972-4974 zone can take it up to 5010-5012 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

Short-Term Investors: 
Bearish Trend. 

Down Side Target at 4657.25. 

Stop Loss at 5252.75.

Equity:
 
TATASTEEL (NSE Cash) 
Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 614 level. 

Yesterday's low of 558 level should be considered as a Stop Loss. 
 
Support Levels: 560,566 & 574 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 586,587,593 & 601 levels.

 TATAMOTORS (NSE Cash) 
Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 770 level. 

Yesterday's low of 678 level should be considered as a Stop Loss. 
 
Support Levels: 688,695 & 713 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 727,733,740,757 & 765 levels.

AXISBANK (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 1141 level. 

Yesterday's low of 1005 level should be considered as a Stop Loss. 
 
Support Levels: 1015,1016,1026,1036 & 1052 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 1073, 1082,1083,1104,1118 & 1130 levels. 

SESAGOA (NSE Cash)
 Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 400 level. 

Yesterday's low of 338 level should be considered as a Stop Loss. 
 
Support Levels: 344,347 & 362 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 369,373,377,391 & 395 levels.

 BHARTISHIP (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 7 days. 

BPCL (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 7 days. 

FACT (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 4 days. 

HINDOILEXP (NSE Cash): 
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. 

MAYTAS INFRA LTD (BSE Code:532907):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 6 days.

Fundamental Pick: 
Selan Oil 

Without making a specific recommendation I can tell you that Barclays and Boone Pickens are eyeing a stake in the company.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 4900 CALL OPTION 
Book Profits. Rally may continue up to 154 level. 

If Profit Booking starts, then it may continue up to 75 level and have caution. 
 
Support Levels: 78, 90, 99,103,105, & 115 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 129,139 & 142 levels.

RELIANCE 1080 CALL OPTION 
Selling may continue up to 14 level and have caution. 

Book Profits, if rallies up to 32 level on upper side. 
 
Support Levels: 17, 18 & 21 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 25, 28 & 29 levels.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
TITAN FUTURES  
Explosive. Upward Target as per Daily Chart is at 2083 level. 

Stop Loss is at 1502 level.  
Support Levels: 1513,1528 & 1678 levels. 

Resistance Levels: 1712, 1723, 1869, 1888, 1899, 1918 & 2060 levels. 
 
Interesting finding about share holding pattern is given below & As per Bombay Stock Exchange Filing: 

Jhunjhunwala Rakesh Radheshyam 2,822,555  6.36 % (Quarter ending :  December 2009) 

Jhunjhunwala Rekha Rakesh 1,038,306  2.34 % ( Quarter ending :  December 2009)

POLARIS FUTURES 
Stock may zoom up to 172 level today & may zoom up to 203 level on (or) before expiry. 
On Negative side, profit booking may be restricted up to 156 level today & 135 level on (or) before expiry.

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	01-Feb-2010	2035.96	2530.62	-494.66

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	01-Feb-2010	1130.61	930.78	199.83

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 1st Feb & Weekly Update 2010

Strong & Weak Stocks This is list of 10 strong stocks:  

Bank of Baroda, Rolta, Allahabad Bank, Siemens, Sun TV, Triveni, Orient Bank, Pantaloon Retail, GTL Infra & Uco Bank.  

And this is list of 10 Weak stocks: 

IOB, Ivrcl Infra, Orchid Chem, Praj Industry, LITL, Sesa Goa, Polaris, Sterlite India, GT Offshore & LT. Nifty is in Down trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Below 4847 level, expect profit booking up to 4795-4797 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4762-4764 zone by non-stop. Hurdles at 4886 & 4900 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 4916-4918 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4949-4951 zone by non-stop. Sell if touches 4966-4968 zone. Stop Loss at 4999-5001 zone. On Negative Side, break below 4746-4748 zone can create panic up to 4713-4715 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution. Short-Term Investors: Bearish Trend. Down Side Target at 4657.25. Stop Loss at 5252.75. Equity: STATE BANK OF INDIA (NSE Cash) Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 2036 level, then it can fall up to 2010 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 1990 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 1955 level. Rally up to 2077 & 2081 levels (or) even up to 2088 & 2102 levels may be possible. Cross above 2123 & 2147 levels, this scrip will explode up to 2169 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 2182 level by non-stop. RELIANCE INDUSTRIES LTD (NSE Cash) Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 1036 level, then it can tumble up to 1033 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 1018 level. Rally up to 1057 level may be possible. Cross above 1067 level, this scrip will explode up to 1080 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1087 level by non-stop. DLF LTD (NSE Cash) Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 330 level, then it can tumble up to 320 & 323 levels by non-stop. Buy at around these levels with a Stop Loss of 314 level. Rally up to 337 level may be possible. Cross above 343 & 346 levels, this scrip will explode up to 353 & 357 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 362 level by non-stop. UNITECH (NSE Cash): Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days. HDFC (NSE Cash): Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. EDUCOMP SOL (NSE Cash): Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 3 days. RASHTRIYA CHEM (NSE Cash): Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 6 days. TATA STEEL (NSE Cash): Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 2 days. INVESTMENT BUY: MOLDTK PLA (BSE Code:533080) 1 Month Target at 81.20. Stop Loss at 35.70. OPTIONS (NSE): NIFTY 5000 CALL OPTION Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 67 & 72 levels, then it can tumble up to 55 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 50 level. Rally up to 82 level may be possible. Cross above 88 & 92 levels, this scrip will explode up to 102 & 105 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 112 level by non-stop. ICICIBANK 800 CALL OPTION Sideways Pattern with Positive bias. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 45 level, then it can tumble up to 31 & 34 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 22 level. Rally up to 54 level may be possible. Cross above 55 level, this scrip will explode up to 63 level by non-stop. STOCK FUTURES (NSE): IFCI FUTURES Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 51 level, then it can tumble up to 47 & 48 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 46 level. Rally up to 54 level may be possible. Cross above 58 level, this scrip will explode up to 59 level by non-stop. IDBI FUTURES Stock may zoom up to 136 level today & may zoom up to 141 level on (or) before expiry. On Negative side, profit booking may be restricted up to 112 level today & 105 level on (or) before expiry.

SPOT INDEX LEVELS TODAY

	4882.05	( 0.30 %)	14.80
		1	2	3
Resistance		4928.50	4974.95	5056.20
Support		4800.80	4719.55	4673.10

	16357.96		( 0.31 %)	51.09
			1	2	3
Resistance			16504.82	16651.68	16913.05
Support			16096.59	15835.22	15688.36

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	29-Jan-2010	2966.14	3962.23	-996.09

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	29-Jan-2010	2328.14	1317.12	1011.02

Index Outlook: Uptrend under threat

 
Liquidity could become a concern in the weeks ahead since FIIs withdrew overRs 7,000 crore or $1.5 billion just last week alone. — Paul Noronha

Sensex (16,357.9)

Bulls remained on the back foot right from the outset last week as fear of increase in policy rates and weakness in the global equity markets kept stock prices in check. Unwinding of long positions prior to expiry of January derivative contracts exacerbated the nervousness making prices nose-dive on Wednesday. The Sensex closed the week down 502 points.

With earnings season winding to a close, success of NTPC FPO will be the principal sentiment driver next week. Market breadth deteriorated significantly implying that the party in second and third rung stocks could be drawing to a close. The BSE Smallcap Index closed 5 per cent lower.

Liquidity could become a concern in the weeks ahead since FIIs withdrew over Rs 7,000 crore or $1.5 billion just last week alone. Open interest recorded a new high on Wednesday prior to the expiry day. February series opens on a heavy note with OI at Rs 93,000 crore. Churn in derivative segment is likely to add to the volatility in February.

The Sensex has corrected 10 per cent from its peak of 17,790 when it recorded the low of 15,982 last week. The magnitude of this decline is not large enough to send alarm bells ringing. It may be recalled that the index declined 15 per cent in the correction in June and July last year and 12 per cent last October and November.

Oscillators in the weekly chart are just entering the negative zone. The weakness needs to sustain at least for a week more for them to give outright sell signals. Daily oscillators are in oversold zone implying the possibility of a short-term bounce. Strong close below the 50-day moving average is a negative from a short-term perspective.

The Sensex declined briefly below the 16,000-mark but bounced to close the week at 16,357. The medium-term uptrend is under pressure and appears vulnerable, but it has not reversed lower yet. A close below 16,000 will cause a severe dent to the market psychology as well as its medium-term prospects.

Minimum targets for a medium-term correction if we consider simple Fibonacci retracement of the uptrend from March lows are 14,867 and 14,068.

The Sensex moved below our outermost short-term target at 16,270 to record an intra-week low of 15,982. Bulls need not lose heart as long as long as the index hovers around 16,270. A close below this level will however imply that the index is heading towards 15,330 where the 200-day moving average is also positioned.

Despite the rebound on Friday afternoon, short-term chart pattern suggests weakness. A running correction appears to be forming that can make the index move in a narrow range between 16,000 and 16,700 for a few sessions. Such a move will be followed by a decline to 15,554 or 15,330. The Sensex needs to move above 17,100 to mitigate the short-term weakness.

Nifty (4,882)

Nifty declined below our outermost target of 4,833 to record an intra-week low of 4,766 on Friday. That the index has closed above the key medium-term support at 4,833 implies that the bulls need not throw in the towel yet. The market is oversold from a short-term perspective but the extent and strength in the rebound will determine the medium-term trend.

Short-term chart pattern suggests that Nifty can remain in a range between 4,750 and 4,970 for a few sessions. Such a move has bearish connotations and can be followed by a decline to 4,637 or 4,607 where the 200-day moving average is positioned. The index needs to rally beyond 5,100 to mitigate the bearish short-term outlook. Traders still holding long positions are advised to exit around 4,970, 5,040 or 5,100.

The medium term trend is under threat but it continues to be up. If the current decline continues, minimum targets would be 4,478 or 4,251.

Global Cues

Most global indices extended their losses last week and closed between 2 to 4 per cent lower. CBOE volatility index initially declined towards 22 but perked up in the last two sessions as stock prices plunged lower.

Commodities took a step backward last week and the CRB index closed 3.5 per cent lower. That this index is reversing after retracing about 60 per cent of the 2008 fall implies that an intermediate term peak could have been formed in early January and commodities could go through a few more months of correction.

The Dow attempted to steady itself in the first three sessions but resumed its decline towards the weekend. The index has closed 3.5 per cent lower in January, its worst monthly loss since February 2009. The short-term trend in the index remains down. The index is halting above the key short-term support at 10,100. Short-term chart formation is bearish and a decline to 9,650 is likely for this index. The medium term trend will however reverse lower only on a close below this level, paving the way for decline to 9,100. —

Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,046.5)

Reliance Industries declined to the low of Rs 1,018 last week. But the 200-day simple moving average present at Rs 1,020 cushioned the fall and the stock has been hovering just above this level over the last three sessions. A rebound early next week can take the stock higher to Rs 1,070 or Rs 1,085. Reversal from either of these levels will imply that the stock will move lower to Rs 990 in the near-term.

The stock remains in the medium-term range between Rs 1,200 and Rs 850. Since it is reversing lower from the upper end of this range, it can move down to Rs 900 or Rs 850 over this period.

State Bank of India (Rs 2,058)

SBI moved below our first short-term target at Rs 2,041 to record an intra-week low at Rs 1,957.

A three-wave move appears complete from the peak of Rs 2,499 recorded last October. SBI is also halting above its long-term 200-day moving average at Rs 1,950.

The stock has also retraced 30 per cent of its rally from the March 2009 low thus completing the minimum retracement requirement. If this level is breached, next retracement target is Rs 1,880.

Resistances for the week are at Rs 2,090 and Rs 2,126. Traders can initiate fresh short positions if the stock fails to move above the first resistance.

Tata Steel (Rs 569)

Tata Steel declined below our short-term support at Rs 614 to close 9 per cent lower for the week.

The stock breached the key medium-term trend-deciding level at Rs 580 last week.

If it stays below this level, the decline can extend to Rs 536 or Rs 524. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 595 and Rs 621. Traders can initiate fresh short positions if the stock fails to move above the first resistance.

We retain a positive medium-term outlook for the stock since the support at Rs 580 has not been breached emphatically yet. However if the current decline extends, the medium term target for the stock would be Rs 450.

Infosys Technologies (Rs 2,476.7)

Infosys declined to an intra-week trough of Rs 2,406 and ended Rs 96 lower last week. The stock breached the lower boundary of its short-term trading range at Rs 2,500 and has also closed below the 50-day moving average at Rs 2,490 thus changing the short-term trend to negative.

Key near-term resistance is at Rs 2,590. Failure to move past this level will imply an impending decline to Rs 2,400 or Rs 2,350 in the near term.

The medium-term view continues to be positive and this view will turn negative on a close below Rs 2,300.

ONGC (Rs 1,099.8)

ONGC stabilised itself around the support at Rs 1,100. Presence of the long-term 200-day moving average at this level makes it a critical support area.

Key resistance for the near term is at Rs 1,150 and shorts can be initiated if the stock fails to cross above this level. Downward target for the stock is Rs 1,016.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,390.1)

Maruti declined to Rs 1,350 on Wednesday and spent rest of the week consolidating at lower levels.

Immediate support for the stock is at Rs 1,311 and traders can watch out for a bounce from this area.

Resistances for the week ahead would be at Rs 1,470 and Rs 1,540. —

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 29th Jan 2010

Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:  
Sun TV, Triveni, Pantaloon Retail, Bank of Baroda,  GTL Infra, Titan, Cummins India, Indian Bank, Crompton Greaves & Indusind Bank.  And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Aban Off shore, Orchid Chem, Praj Industry, IOB, GT Offshore, India Info, Moser Bear, EKC, TV-18 & KFA.
Nifty is in Down trend  

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Below 4837 level, expect profit booking up to 4821-4823 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4781-4783 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 4882-4884 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue up to 4897-4899 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4938-4940 zone by non-stop.

Cross above 4951-4953 zone, can take it up to 4992-4994 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4768-4770 zone. Stop Loss at 4727-4729 zone.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend.
Down Side Target at 4657.25.
Stop Loss at 5252.75.

Equity:
TATASTEEL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 580 level, then it can tumble up to 566 & 572 levels by non-stop. Buy at around these levels with a Stop Loss of 565 level.
Rally up to 591 & 596 levels may be possible.

Cross above 604 level, this scrip will explode up to 610 & 616 levels by non-stop.

BHARTIARTL (NSE Cash)
Weak. Do remember that, if crosses & sustains above 317 & 321 levels, then it can zoom up to 324 level by non-stop. Sell at around this level with a Stop Loss of 328 level.
Fall up to 307 & 310 levels may be possible.

Break below 300 & 304 levels, fall may continue up to 297 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 292 level by non-stop.

JSWSTEEL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 980 level, then it can tumble up to 975 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 968 level.
Rally up to 1000 & 1005 levels may be possible.
Cross above 1020 level, this scrip will explode up to 1030 level by non-stop.


AXISBANK (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 3 days.

SUZLON (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 2 days.

DRREDDY (NSE Cash):  
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 5 days.

MPHASIS (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within 4 days.

NFL (NSE Cash):  
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within 4 days.

INVESTMENT BUY:
Austin Engr (BSE Code:522005)  
3 Month's Target at 123.15.
Stop Loss at 70.00.

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5000 CALL OPTION
Today's trend is sideways pattern with Negative bias. If short covering starts, then it can zoom up to 105 level by non-stop.
On Negative side, if selling continues then slide may continue up to 67 level by non-stop.

RELIANCE 1080 CALL OPTION
Today's trend is sideways pattern with Negative bias. If short covering continues, then it can zoom up to 35 level by non-stop.
On Negative side, if Selling continues then slide may continue up to 19 level by non-stop.

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ORIENTALBANK FUTURES
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 247 level, then it can tumble up to 231-233 zone by non-stop. Buy at around this zone with a Stop Loss of 230 level.
Rally up to 252-254 zone may be possible.
Cross above 267 & 270 levels, this scrip will explode up to 274 level by non-stop.

ABAN FUTURES
Stock may crash up to 1022 level today & may crash up to 797 level on (or) before expiry.
On Positive side, short covering may be restricted up to 1295 level today & 1533 level on (or) before expiry.

SPOT INDEX LEVELS

	4867.25	( 0.29 %)	14.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		4923.12	4978.98	5028.07
Support		4818.17	4769.08	4713.22

	16306.87		( 0.10 %)	17.05
			1	2	3
Resistance			16493.66	16680.45	16836.21
Support			16151.11	15995.35	15808.56

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	28-Jan-2010	3319.92	6132.98	-2813.06

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	28-Jan-2010	3113.1	1133.52	1979.58

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381