LITL, Jindal Steel, Reliance, Maruti, Bajaj Hind, Balrampur Chini, HDFC, Renuka, Hind Uni Lvr & GT Offshore.
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Above 5238 level, expect short covering up to 5261-5263 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5285-5287 zone by non-stop.
Support at 5211 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 5200-5202 zone.
Buy if touches 5177-5179 zone. Stop Loss at 5153-5155 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5308-5310 zone can take it up to 5332-5334 zone. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend should continue.
Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity: THINKSOFT GLOBAL SERVICES (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 434 & 435 levels, then it can fall up to 429 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 419 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 415 level.
Rally up to 444 & 447 levels may be possible.
Cross above 457 & 461 levels, this scrip will explode up to 467 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 472 level by non-stop.
HCL TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 373 level, then it can tumble up to 370 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 367 level.
Rally up to 381 level may be possible.
Cross above 387 & 390 levels, this scrip will explode up to 397-399 zone by non-stop.
DLF (NSE Cash)
Weak. Do remember that, if crosses & sustains above 383 level, then it can zoom up to 388 level by non-stop. Sell at around this level with a Stop Loss of 392 level.
Fall up to 375 & 376 levels may be possible.
Break below 369-371 zone, expect panic up to 362-364 zone by non-stop.
HMT LTD (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Month.
ITI LTD (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
WALCHANDNAGAR IN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Month.
HIND ORGANIC CHE (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Week.
ZEE ENTERTAINMEN (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
OPTIONS (NSE):NIFTY 5300 PUT OPTION
Today's trend is sideways pattern with Positive bias. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 120 level by non-stop.
On Negative side, if profit booking starts then slide may continue up to 71 level by non-stop. Too risky.
RELIANCE 1080 PUT OPTION
Today's trend is sideways pattern with Positive bias. If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 21 level by non-stop.
On Negative side, if profit booking starts then slide may continue up to 12 level by non-stop.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):YES BANK FUTURES
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 282 level, then it can tumble up to 275 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 273 level.
Rally up to 288 level may be possible.
Cross above 291 & 295 levels, this scrip will explode up to 301 level by non-stop.
ANDHRA BANK FUTURES
Today's Upper Target is at around 123 level & it may zoom up to 133 level on (or) before expiry.
Today's Stop Loss at 109 level. Below this level, it can tumble up to 104 level on (or) before expiry.
5225.65
( -0.93 %)
-49.20
1
2
3
Resistance
5269.42
5313.18
5338.57
Support
5200.27
5174.88
5131.12
17486.06
( -0.88 %)
-155.02
1
2
3
Resistance
17612.69
17739.31
17813.77
Support
17411.61
17337.15
17210.53
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
19-Jan-2010
2123.88
2485.55
-361.67
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
DII
19-Jan-2010
1396.48
1373.94
22.54
INVESTMENT BUY:
VINAY CEMENT(BSE Code:518051)
Positive News expected within 3 Months.
Upper Target at 61.10.
Stop Loss at 40.05.
INVESTMENT VIEW
Rasandik Engg. Ltd.
(BSE Code:522207Rs. 58.25/-)
REL is Auto ancillary scrip which is available at attractive valuations. With factories in three different locations (Gurgaon, Sohna, Surajpur) REL is engaged in manufacture of automotive parts as well as Tools/Dies for automobile and engineering industry. But for last year, REL also had reported very good nos. earlier. Its major customers are:
Fiat Telco Maruti
TVS M&M Toyota
Hero Motors Swaraj Mazda Ashok Leyland
Claas LG Force Motors
New Holland Tractors
2007-08 2008-09
Net Sales 188.62 197.66
Depreciation 9.11 10.73
Net Profit/Loss 7.16 - 0.72
Cash Profit 16.27 10.01
EPS Rs. 15.15
Cash EPS 34.47 21.20
It is clear that Rasandik achieved fabulous results in 07-08 with EPS of 15.15 and Cash EPS of 34.47. During the year, 3.60 Cr. was deferred tax which is non-cash entry.
In 2008-09, it had respectable Cash EPS of 21.20. In Q1, Company had reported good profits but, made big loss in Q2 and Q3 due to steep fall in metal prices.
H1/09-10 H1/08-09 2009-10E 2010-11E
Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr
Net Sales 105.86 102.54 235.00 290.00
Depreciation 5.65 5.19 11.10 11.50
Net Profit 2.14 - 2.85 6.15 7.50
Equity 4.72 4.72 4.72 4.72
EPS Rs. 4.53 13.00 15.90
Cash EPS Rs. 16.50 36.30 40.25
Recently, Company has started production of 3 Wheeler under the Brand Name 'Chief' which is a move from Tier-I supplier to OEM. Company has launched 7 variants of the same for passenger carrier, Loader, Delivery van, Garbage Carriers and Mobile Shop. Same are available with 395 cc and 510 cc Engines. The Autos are available with Diesel and CNG versions. Passenger Carrier is available in 1+3, 1+6 and 1+7 seater. Next year, this segment should add significantly to its top line.
Valuations: REL is available very cheap considering the following:
Market Cap is just Rs. 26 crores which is 11% of 09-10E Sales.
Book Value is Rs. 44/-
Stock is available at 4.23 x FY10E EPS and 1.51 x FY10E Cash EPS
Stock is trading at 3.45 x FY11E EPS and 1.37 x FY11E Cash EPS.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
Purva, GTL Infra, Finance Tech, MTNL, UCO Bank, SCI, BEML, DCB, Dish TV & Pantaloon Retail.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
Jindal Steel, LITL, Reliance, Maruti, Balrampur Chini, Hind Uni Lvr, State Bank Of India, Glaxo, HDFC & McDowell-N.
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Below 5251 & 5261 levels, expect profit booking up to 5227-5229 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5205-5207 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5278-5280 zone. Above this zone, rally may continue 5285 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5300-5302 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5307-5309 zone, can take it up to 5329-5331 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at 5198-5200 zone. Stop Loss at 5176-5178 zone.
Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity: HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 384 level, then it can tumble up to 380 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 377 level.
Rally up to 392 & 393 levels may be possible.
Cross above 397 level, this scrip will explode up to 401 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 405 level by non-stop.
RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 905 level, then it can tumble up to 900 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 889 level.
Rally up to 923 & 929 levels may be possible.
Cross above 943 level, this scrip will explode up to 949-951 zone by non-stop.
GAS AUTHORITY (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with Positive bias. Rally may continue up to 443 & 444 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 447 level by non-stop.
Below 434 level, expect profit booking up to 426 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 423 level by non-stop.
NMDC (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Month.
STC (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
ENGINEERS (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Week.
DREDGING CORPN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative News within a Month.
STERLITE TECHNOLOGIES (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
BRANDHOUSE RETAILS (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive News within a Week.
Excellent Buys:
Buy ELECTRO STEEL CA (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 51.00 level.
Buy JK LAKSHMI CEMEN (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 80.50 level.
Buy KWALITY DAIRY (I) (NSE Cash): Buy with a Stop Loss of 142.70 level.
OPTIONS (NSE):NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 35 level is the support level & 61 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
RELIANCE 1110 CALL OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern with Negative bias.
Today's levels: 11 level is the support level & 26 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):TRIVENI ENGG & INDS FUTURES:
Sideways Pattern with Positive bias.
Today's levels: 111 level is the support level & 130 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
SPOT LEVELS TODAY
5274.85
( 0.43 %)
22.65
1
2
3
Resistance
5301.92
5328.98
5365.47
Support
5238.37
5201.88
5174.82
17641.08
( 0.49 %)
86.78
1
2
3
Resistance
17733.95
17826.83
17941.05
Support
17526.85
17412.63
17319.75
FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
18-Jan-2010
2577.75
2424.85
152.9
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
DII
18-Jan-2010
993
1014.46
-21.46
INVESTMENT BUY:
CITY UNION BANK (BSE Code:532210)
1 Year Target 45.30.
Stop Loss at 27.30.
INVESTMENT VIEW (May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Bharat Gears Ltd.
(BSE Code 505688: Rs.60.70/-)
Belonging to Apollo Tyres Group, BGL is biggest manufacturer of Gears for Auto Industry in India. Company has two Plants (Faridabad and Mumbra). Apart from Gears, it also produces Furnaces and other Automotive Components. It has reputed customers like:
Telco
New Holland
John Deere
VST Tractors
TMA
TDI
Carraro
Dana Corporation, USA
Company has good track record. However, last year its performance suffered, mainly due to decline in demand and fall in metal prices.
2008-09 2007-08 2006-07
Cr. Cr. Cr.
Net Sales 260.00 236.00 197.00
Depreciation 9.83 9.59 10.00
PAT 4.04 10.00 8.80
EPS Rs. 5.17 12.80 11.25
Cash EPS 17.75 25.05 24.05
From the above, can be observed that Company had very good profit margins in the past. With revival in demand, BGL is likely to regain the lost glory:
H1/09-10 H1/08-09 2009-10E 2010-11E
Net Sales 122.00 150.00 265.00 295.00
Net Profit 3.01 6.07 9.00 11.50
Cash Profit 7.93 10.75 18.50 21.00
Equity 7.82 7.82 7.82 7.82
EPS Rs. 3.85 7.75 11.50 14.70
Cash EPS 10.15 13.75 23.65 26.85
In H1, Company has reported PAT of 3.01 crs. In Q1, Company had tiny profit of 30 lacs and hence, Q2 has witnessed very good profits. H1 of last year was better but H2 was very bad (losses). Profits in H1 of Current Year marks turnaround and revival for BGL.
Valuations: BGL is available at extremely tempting valuations:
1. Current Market Cap is just Rs. 43 crs. which is 16% of 09-10E sales.
2. Book Value is Rs. 50/-.
3. Stock is available at 4.78 x FY10E EPS and 2.32 x FY10E Cash EPS.
4. Stock is quoting at 3.75 x FY11E EPS and 2.05 x FY11 Cash EPS.
Any sharp rise in metal prices can dent its bottom line. Otherwise, BGL is poised for decent growth and better profit margins. Scrip can appreciate 30% in next 2 months and it can go up by 80% - 100% in less than 15 months.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
____ __ Strong Futures This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Purva, Dish TV, GTL Infra, MLL, SCI, Bhushan Steel, Tech Mahindra, Acc Ltd, Ambuja Cement & Century Text.. Weak Futures This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: Maruti, Jindal Steel, HDFC, State Bank Of India, Reliance, Hind Uni Lvr, LITL, Canara Bank, Hero Honda & McDowell-N..
Market Trend is up ____________________________________________________________
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): Below 5245 level, selling may continue up to 5242-5244 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5233-5235 zone by non-stop.
Hurdle at 5264 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 5278-5280 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5289-5291 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5292-5294 zone, can take it up to 5302-5304 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 5230-5232 zone. Stop Loss at 5220-5222 zone.
Short-Term Investors: Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity: TATA MOTORS (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 789 level, then it can tumble up to 783 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 775 level.
Rally up to 803-805 zone & 811 level may be possible.
Cross above 818 & 819 levels, this scrip will explode up to 826 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 832-834 zone by non-stop.
ABG SHIPYARD (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 296 level, then it can tumble up to 253 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 250 level.
Rally up to 300-302 zone & 305 level may be possible.
Cross above 346 level, this scrip will explode up to 351-353 zone by non-stop.
TECH MAHINDRA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 1126 level, then it can tumble up to 1100 & 1111 levels by non-stop. Buy at around these levels with a Stop Loss of 1086 level.
Rally up to 1148 level may be possible.
Cross above 1158 & 1170 levels, this scrip will explode up to 1195 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1204 level by non-stop.
BHARTI SHIPYARD (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative news within a Month.
SELAN EXPLORATION TECHNOLOGY (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Negative news within a Month.
TATA ELXSI (I) (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive news within a Week.
BRIGADE ENTERPRISES (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect Positive news within Three Months.
OPTIONS (NSE):NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern.
Today's levels: 38 level is the support level & 51 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
Interesting Point: 5 Days Chart indicates rally up to 104 level with a Stop Loss of 41 level.
Conclusion: If 51 level is comfortably crossed, then traders can buy with a Stop Loss of 38 level today. Negative factor is that trend is sideways pattern. Risk of loss is there and take a calculated risk too.
RELIANCE 1110 PUT OPTION
Trend: Sideways Pattern.
Today's levels: 18 level is the support level & 28 level is the resistance. Will try to trade
between these levels.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):DISH TV (I) FUTURES
Sideways Trend with Positive Bias.
Above 51 level, rally may continue up to 52 level by non-stop.
Below 50 level, expect profit booking up to 48 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 47 level by non-stop.
SCI FUTURES:
Explosive. If Friday's low of 164 level is protected then rally may continue up to 186 level today & within expiry it will zoom up to 193 level.
If bulls can't able to protect Friday's low of 164level then it can tumble up to 157 level within expiry.
INVESTMENT BUY: MUKTA ARTS (532357)
Recommended to buy and can hold up to end of this month.
Daily Chart: If Friday's low of 62 level is protected, then rally up to 89 level also possible.
Forecast up to 31.01.2010:
If 58 level is protected, then rally up to 94 level also possible.
5252.20
( -0.15 %)
-7.70
1
2
3
Resistance
5273.88
5295.57
5311.28
Support
5236.48
5220.77
5199.08
17554.30
( -0.17 %)
-30.57
1
2
3
Resistance
17619.73
17685.16
17730.47
Support
17508.99
17463.68
17398.25
INVESTMENT VIEW
Banswara Syntex –BUY
(BSE Code:503722) Rationale for Recommendation:
Mettle of management is tested when industry is passing through the worst times and, what type of financial performance company dishes out during such times. Due to global overcapacity in spinning sector and also global meltdown, Year 2007 and 2008 had been the worst ever for Indian Textile Industry which led to majority of Cos. in this sector reporting big losses. Still, BSL made decent cash profit and reasonable net profit during these period which shows that BSL, a fully integrated textile co., is one of the most efficient in Indian Textile Sector.
Further, in last 6 months, fortunes of Indian Textile Industry have taken a U-turn which will enable BSL to report best ever performance for 2 years atleast and hence the recommendation because, scrip is still available at very low valuations.
Background:
BSL is an integrated textile co. engaged in the production of cotton yarn, synthetic blended yarn, polywool yarn, fabric weaving, fabric processing, Trouser/Jacket making garment factories and Captive Power Plant. Co. has 1.35 lakh spindles, 206 most modern looms to produce 2.2 mn. meter fabric per month, 2 lakh garment pieces per month, 27 MW Power Plant (18 MW Thermal and 9 MW Furnace Oil) and 30 mn. meters per year Fabric Processing capacity. In its weaving division, company has diversified its fabric business towards jacquard and technical textile like laminated fabric, fire retardant fabrics, water repellent fabrics, anti-fungus and bacterial processing fabric etc. Garment Division is supplier to all major domestic brands like Park Avenue, Louis Phillipe, etc.
Over last 4 years, Co. undertook capex of approx. Rs. 250 crs. for expansion/modernization which has enabled it to significantly expand its capacity of fabric and garments, widen the range into wool mix and cotton yarn. Now, Co. is set to reap benefits of ramped up capacities and revived demand scenario.
Financial Highlights:
2008 - 09 2007-08 2006-07 2005-06
Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr Rs/Cr
Turnover
(including exports) 558.95 451.54 413.43 344.95
Exports 366.44 281.52 256.94 212.18
PBDT 40.69 27.47 39.04 29.02
Depreciation 29.40 21.80 16.26 13.31
PAT 9.59 4.42 14.94 9.26
Dividend % 18% 12% 20% 20%
Equity 13.08 13.08 12.51 7.77
Reserves 76.22 69.45 64.63 52.99
Net worth 89.31 82.53 77.14 60.76
Loans 354.06 332.07 230.39 176.82
Net Block 330.90 319.15 244.52 170.38
Book Value Rs. 68.14 62.97 61.50 50.76
Performance Review 2008-09: During the year, production of Yarn improved by 10%, fabric by 28% and garments by 36%. Gross revenues increased by 24%. Co. increased the sale of fabric and garments, as %age of Gross Income, from 44% in 07-08 to 50% in 08-09. It also sold Power to SEB, generating 4.72 cr. income.
Profit before extraordinary items, depreciation and tax at 48.22 crs. was up by 76% as against 27.47 crs. in 07-08. It booked forex loss of 7.53 crs. (MTM, not involving cash outgo) during the year.
Export performance has improved every year for last 5 years, cumulative growth at 129%.
BSL also has a JV named Carreman Fabrics India Ltd. with weaving Plant of 60 looms in which BSL has 50% stake. JV earned Net Profit of Rs. 95 lakhs during the year. BSL re-started production of Power on Furnace Oil based Power Plant, after considering commercial viability. In 2008-09, EPS stood at 7.33 but Cash EPS was 29.80.
Future Outlook:
H A L F Y E A R E N D E D
30/09/2009 30/09/2008
Rs/Cr Rs/Cr
Net Sales 310.46 271.62
Depreciation 14.98 14.56
Net Profit 13.86 0.09
EPS Rs. 10.58 0.07
Cash EPS Rs. 22.03 11.83
Banswara has reported fabulous results for H1 wherein, its PAT is 13.86 crs. as against near 9 lacs in H1 of previous year. Cash EPS for H1 is 22.03.
2 0 0 9 - 10E 2 0 1 0 - 1 1E
Revenues 630.00 750.00
Depreciation 30.00 33.00
Net Profit 31.00 53.00
Equity 13.08 14.73
EPS Rs. 23.97 35.94
Cash EPS Rs. 46.38 57.68
P.E. Ratio 3.51 2.42
Cash P.E. Ratio 1.82 1.50
BSL is likely to witness dramatic and quantitative improvement in its working in current and next year atleast due to various factors. Firstly, since the beginning of 2009, Yarn selling realization have gone up by nearly 20% whereas, Fibre (R/M) prices have gone up just 7-8%. Secondly, there will be inherent improvement in profitability driven by superior revenue mix in the form of substantially higher contribution of fabric/garment divisions. In Textile Industry, in order to be more competitive, value addition is the only answer and BSL is constantly adding to its weaving and garmenting capacity. Co. is increasing consumption of self-produced yarn for fabric and own fabric for garments. Presently, 35% of Yarn is consumed for fabrics and 15% of fabric production is consumed by its garment factory.
Future Plans:
a) Company has decided to set up one more 18 MW Power Plant at capex of just Rs. 50 crs. (less than Rs. 3/- Cr per MW. Part of the generation will be for captive use to meet enhanced energy requirement in future and more than 50% should be for merchant sale. It should generate Cash Profit of Rs. 15 cr. on annual basis from Q1FY12 onwards.
b) Company has also chalked out expansion, modernization and diversification programme involving Rs. 60 crs. Out of it, 9.55 Cr. will be spent to enhance readymade garment production, 8.07 Cr. for increasing dyeing capacity, 6.29 Cr. for yarn dyeing plant, 8.19 Cr. to increase fabric weaving capacity and 18.68 Cr. for spinning capacity.
Valuations:
BSL has emerged as one of the finest textile cos. in India as is evident from financial highlights of last 4 years wherein, its total sales, exports have been going up at a decent pace and promoters had vision of forward integration which prevented BSL from plunging into losses (like so many other standalone spinning mills). Stock is trading at:
1. 3.51 x FY10E EPS.
2. 1.82 x FY10E Cash EPS.
3. 2.40 x FY11E EPS.
4. 1.50 x FY11E Cash EPS.
Current Market Cap of BSL is Rs. 113 crs. Where as, Co. is likely to make cumulative Cash Profit of 147 crs. in 2009 - 11. Further, current market cap is 16% and 15% of FY10E and FY11E sales. B.V. will rise to Rs. 81-84 at the end of current year and, Rs. 110 - 112 as on March 2011. Significant appreciation of Indian currency is the main risk which can impact its margins.
In International Market, Co. has established a strong name for itself in terms of delivery schedule, reliability and quality which enables BSL to fetch higher realization.
BSL is a value buy.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
Day Trading Guide
DLF
The stock is experiencing selling pressure at higher levels. Fresh short position can be initiated if it slips below Rs 380 with tight stop-loss.
ICICI Bank
As long as ICICI Bank trades below Rs 853, the near-term outlook stays negative. We recommend a sell.
Infosys
Fresh long position is recommended only if the stock moves above Rs 2690, with tight stop-loss.
L&T
The near-term stance is bearish for the stock. We recommend a sell with stop at Rs 1665.
ONGC
As long as ONGC hovers above Rs 1200, bullish momentum holds. We recommend a buy with stop at Rs 1200.
Reliance Capital
Fresh short position can be initiated if the stock decline below Rs 884, with tight stop-loss.
Reliance Communications
The near-term outlook is positive for the stock. We recommend a buy.
Reliance Industries
Initiate fresh short position if RIL tumbles below Rs 1094, with stiff stop-loss.
SBI
We recommend a sell as the near-term outlook is bearish.
Nifty Futures
Fresh short position can be initiated if Nifty futures decline below 5225, with stiff stop-loss.
All moves tied to bank rates
Players bet on continuation of fiscal stimulus, short-term liquidity flow.
Market players expect the RBI to suck up excess liquidity and keep stimulus steps in place.
Dalal Street may show an upward bias in the short-term. The market has shed its apprehension over an imminent rate hike by the central bank. Players seem to expect that the RBI will not hike policy rates in the Credit Policy, scheduled on January 29, in view of slow growth in credit off-take. Instead, they said, the central bank may mop up excess liquidity or make liquidity dearer to test the waters.
Expectations are that the RBI may increase cash reserve ratio – a percentage of deposits banks must keep with the RBI – by not more than 50 basis points. Also repo or reverse repo rates may also be tinkered with marginally. A repo rate is the interest banks have to pay RBI for borrowing from the central bank. A reverse repo is what the RBI pays banks for funds.
In the fortnight ended December 25, bank credit growth was just 12.2 per cent year-on-year. But Morgan Stanley in a recent note said this number may be misleading. "We believe that underlying credit growth is probably stronger than that implied by the headline year-on-year number. Last year during this period, bank credit growth accelerated sharply for about two months due to the shift in corporate borrowing from fixed income mutual funds and non-banking financial companies. As the base effect should normalise by January-February 2010, bank credit growth should pick up to 15-16 per cent Y-on-Y."
Fiscal Boosters
Moreover, it believed that bank credit growth was a lagging indicator. It reckoned that a sharp pick-up in industrial production growth, continuing since June last year, should be reflected in bank credit demand over the next two months. "We believe that the sequential bank credit growth trend has already started accelerating, indicating that year-on-year growth will move very quickly over the next two months," it added.
The market is assuming that the Government will not withdraw fiscal stimulus in a hurry. The other assumption in the short term is that liquidity flow is going to be steady.
The fiscal and monetary stimuli had helped the corporate sector earn better. The current equity price appreciation is a function of liquidity inflow. However, the medium-term fundamentals may weaken, some analysts said.
Even if the forthcoming monetary policy measures do not hit the interest of the corporate sector, the fiscal measures of the Government, including the Union Budget, may not be as corporate friendly as last year.
The pro-poor policies, which are dismissed by market economists as populist, look like an imperative step for policy makers this year. Certain social, environmental and internal security issues are gaining in economic and political importance. If political rhetoric is any indication, the corporate sector should be ready for a trade-off between lower growth in profit and expansion of the market.
Cost of interest and commodities are likely to put pressure on profit growth. If stock prices remain liquidity-driven like last year, they would overtake the fundamentals faster than anticipated.
But the bulls insist that apprehensions are being overplayed. Their contention is that the Government would generate additional funds through higher dividend and disinvestment of the public sector enterprises. A tilt in favour of growth – particularly in the infrastructure sector – is likely to unleash raw economic power to include all.
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category
Date
Buy Value
Sell Value
Net Value
FII
15-Jan-2010
2010.27
2940.36
-930.09
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Strong & Weak futures This is list of 10 strong futures: GTL Infra, Bhushan Steel, Sterling Biotech, JSW Steel, MLL, Siemens, Recltd, Aban Off shore, KS Oils & Grasim. And this is list of 10 Weak futures: Maruti, HDFC, Hind Uni Lvr, State Bank Of India, Hero Honda, ICICI Bank, Reliance, Glaxo, GT Offshore & Syndicate Bank. Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5266-5268 zone, rally may continue up to 5277-5279 zone by non-stop.
Support at 5249-5251 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 5236-5238 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5224-5226 zone by non-stop.
Buy if touches 5213-5215 zone. Stop Loss at 5201-5203 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5289-5291 zone can take it up to 5300-5302 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue. Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00. Equity:
JSW STEEL (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 1163 & 1170 levels, then it can tumble up to 1152 level by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 1139 level.
Rally up to 1194 & 1200 levels may be possible.
Cross above 1212 & 1218 levels, this scrip will explode up to 1230 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1237 level by non-stop.
PUNJ LLOYD (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 221 level, then it can tumble up to 214-216 zone by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 213 level.
Rally up to 225 level may be possible.
Cross above 226-228 zone, this scrip will explode up to 232-234 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 237 level by non-stop.
SESA GOA (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 415 level, then it can tumble up to 408 & 412 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 406 level.
Rally up to 423 & 424 levels may be possible.
Cross above 429-431 zone, this scrip will explode up to 435 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 440 level by non-stop.
ONGC CORPN (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
ABAN OFFSHORE (NSE Cash):
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
TATA TELESERVICE (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
UTTAM STEEL (NSE Cash):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Month.
GUJ HOTELS (BSE Code:507960):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week.
GUJ AMBUJA EXPOR (BSE Code:524226):
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect negative news within a Week. INVESTMENT BUY:
R S SOFTWARE (BSE Code:517447)
Recommended to buy for a Target of 75.60 within a Week. Market Buzz:
OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5300 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Negative bias.
Will slide up to 47 level on down side.
If rallies, then expect short covering up to 62 level.
RELIANCE 1110 CALL OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
Risk is too high, because Stop Loss is too far on down side at 22.00-24.00 zone.
Upward Target at 41.00-43.00 zone. STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
BHARAT FORGE FUTURES
Explosive. Do remember that, if breaks & sustains below 296 level, then it can tumble up to 288 & 291 levels by non-stop. Buy at around this level with a Stop Loss of 287 level.
Rally up to 302-304 zone may be possible.
Cross above 310 & 313 levels, this scrip will explode up to 316 level by non-stop.
RURAL ELECTRIFICATION CORPORATION FUTURES:
Bulls may get trapped at higher levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
HCL TECH FUTURES:
Bears may get trapped at lower levels during intra-day trades today. Expect positive news within a Week.
(May not be useful for Day-Traders)
Murli Industries-BUY
Co has reported EPS of 20 And Cash Eps of 43 in H1. 09-10 Eps can be 45 and Cash Eps 90 in current year .Presently, co is in business of:
18mw power plant
Pulp Mill
Writing Paper
Newsprint
Packaging paper
Soya DOC
Refined Oil
Last year, fire had taken place in its paper plant which destroyed its raw material and finished product. Subsequently 3 months strike took place last year only. In current year, performance of soya division has been poor due to poor crop caused by bad monsoon.
3 months back , co has commissioned 80,000 tonnes capacity SBS board plant which is supposed to be most modern.
Co has bought back FCCB this month which has resulted in saving of approx 15 cr to the co.
Main trigger: Recently co has commissioned 3 mn tonne cement plant and 50 mw captive power plant at 819 cr only. Equity is just 10 cr. Hence, 10-11Turnover can be 1600 crs and Eps can be more than Rs 120/.
Co has announced to hold board meeting for stock split and preferential offer of warrants on
January 18, 2010.
Co wants to set up 3 more cement plants of 3 mn tonne each in North, East and South.
TECHNICALS:
MURLI INDS (NSE Cash):
As per yesterday's chart, slide may continue up to 313.40 level. Any rally up to 393.90 can be used to book profits.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice).
