Market Outlook 21st Dec 2009 & Weekly Update

Intraday calls for 21st Dec 2009

Buy Mphasis-725 @ 710-707 for 725-730 with sl 695

Buy Jothistru-160 @ 152-150 for 175 with sl 147

Buy DivisLab-664 @ 652-648 for 675 with sl 635

Buy Dr.Reddy-1207 for 1287 with sl 1080 [positional]

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
RESISTANCE
5001
5032
5061
5090
5119
SUPPORT
4977
4960
4931
4902 

HAVELLS;BANKBARODA;KFA;CON&KINGS;DCHL;TATAMOTOR;RANBAXY;LUPIN;DRREADDY

 
Strong & Weak  futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Ranbaxy, Lupin, Dr Reddy, Tata Motors, HCL Tech, Cipla, ACC, Sail Ltd, Gtl Ltd & Divi'S Lab. And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Andhra Bank, Aban Off shore, Ivrcl Infra, Tata Comm, GVKPIL, Allahabad Bank, Educomp, Lic house, BRFL & Unitech. 
Nifty is in Down trend 

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 5001 level, expect short covering up to 5030-5032 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5059-5061 zone by non-stop.

Support at 4977 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 4960-4962 zone.

Below 4931-4933 zone, expect panic up to 4902-4904 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5088-5090 zone can take it up to 5117-5119 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors: 
 Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.

Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
CNX BANK INDEX (F&O):  
Above 8617 level, expect short covering up to 8672-8674 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 8728-8730 zone by non-stop.

Support at 8587 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 8558-8560 zone.

Below 8502-8504 zone, expect panic up to 8447-8449 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 8783-8785 zone can take it up to 8839-8841 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 8550.00.

Up Side Target at 9996.00.

Problem is that, we are trading near Stop Loss level. If Breaks & Closes below 8550.00 level for consecutive 3 days then it can tumble up to 7827.00 level by non-stop.
 
Equity:  
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)

Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Above 343 level, expect short covering up to 349 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 353-355 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 336 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 326 & 329 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 319-321 zone by

non-stop.
 
 
HAVELLS INDIA (NSE Cash)

Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
 

Above 574 level, buying may continue up to 590 & 596 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 606-608 zone by non-stop.

Support at 562 level. Below 500 & 505 levels, expect unwinding up to 488-490 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA STEEL (NSE Cash)

Selling may continue & Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on upper side.
 

Hurdle at 569 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 574-576 zone and sell. Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Support at 558 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 548-550 zone by non-stop.
 
 
COX & KINGS (I)

Range bound trading expected. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.
 

Above 425 & 431 levels, buying may continue up to 465-467 zone by non-stop.

Down side risk up to 416 level also possible. Below 384 level, it can tumble up to 374-376 zone by non-stop.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.85? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy BANK OF BARODA (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 486.05-488.05 zone. 

Target at 533.60-535.60 zone.
  
Will you take a risk of Rs.8.00? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy DECCAN CHRONICLE HOLDING (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 150.00-152.00 zone. 

Target at 168.80-170.80 zone. 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.16.60? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Sell JSW STEEL (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 992.30-994.30 zone. 

Target at 948.50-950.50 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

Expected to gain. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side. 
 
Down side risk up to 81 level also possible. Will try to touch 99 level on upper side. If crosses & sustains at above 116 & 122 levels then it can zoom up to 129-131 zone by non-stop.

Below 73 level, expect profit booking up to 58 & 64 levels. Keep a Stop Loss at 50-52 zone and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
RELIANCE 1020 PUT OPTION

Expected to gain. Will you take a risk of Rs 11.40 from the yesterday's closing price?
 

Above 33 level, rally may continue up to 38 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 45-47 zone by non-stop.

Support at 45-47 zone, Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 19 level. Keep a Stop Loss at this level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
ICICI BANK FUTURES

Selling may continue.  

Hurdle at 816 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 822-824 zone. Stop Loss if too far on upper side.

Support at 796 & 800 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 787 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 780-782 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA MOTORS FUTURES

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels. 
 
Hurdle at 737 level. Above this level, buying may continue up to 745 & 752 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 758-760 zone by non-stop.

Support at 722 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 714 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 699-701 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:  
GHCL (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 78.90-80.90 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
KINGFISHER AIRLINES (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 60.55-62.55 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	18-Dec-2009	2227.95	2434.8	-206.85

 

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	18-Dec-2009	1391.31	1060.36	330.95

 

 

Index Outlook: Bears gain the upper hand

Sensex (16,719.8)

Santa Claus failed to make an appearance last week but investors were kept greatly entertained by the game of one-upmanship played by the premier stock exchanges of our country and as a section of the broking fraternity started protesting passionately against the exchange's ad-hoc decision to advance trading hours. In all this drama, the investors, to service whom these exchanges and broking intermediaries exist, seem to have been blissfully forgotten. A survey of investors would definitely show that they have no objection whatsoever to this extension.

The Sensex appeared almost spineless last week and collapsed lower to close 400 points down. With a truncated week ahead and the holiday mood only likely to get stronger from next weekend, it is difficult to see how equities can garner the impetus to move any higher in the next couple of weeks. That said this lethargic mood is also likely to thwart any serious slide in the near term.

That leaves us once more with a tired market that limps sideways in the home stretch as 2009 draws to a close. Weekly rate of change oscillator has dipped slightly in to the negative zone and relative strength index is at 58. Both these indicators signal that the medium term trend has not yet reversed lower and the index is still in neutral zone with a move likely in either direction. Daily indicators have however moved in to negative zone implying that short-term can be rocky.

Close below the 50-day moving average at 16,832 is also a concern from near term perspective. But the Sensex has support in the vicinity at 16,640 and 16,580. If the index rebounds from these levels, it can move towards the 17,350 and 17,500 once more in the near term.

But continuation of the decline below 16,580 will take Sensex to 16,400 or 16,100. The medium term trend for the index is up since the November 3 low of 15,330. This uptrend will reverse only on a close below 16,100. The zone between 16,000 and 16,200 is a critical support since it lies at the 61.8 per cent retracement of the previous down-move. This zone needs to hold if the index has to rally higher in 2010.

There is however need for caution from an intermediate and long-term perspective since the first target of the move from the March lows is at 17800 and the index can end the move +/- 5 per cent from this level. We are awaiting a move towards 17,800 or 18,200 but the index could have pulled a fast one on us and have already ended the intermediate term up-trend. Investors should therefore maintain a target return for recent purchases, especially in mid and small cap stocks and exit once these returns are achieved.

The index has strong short term support at 16,640. A rebound from this level can take it higher to 17,000, 17,120 or 17,350 next week. Failure to move above 17,000 will usher in a decline to 16,620 or 16,400. Subsequent support for the index is at 16,210.

Nifty (4,987.7)

It was a let down as far as the Nifty movement was concerned last week. But the up trend from the 4,806 low has not reversed yet. A close below 4,950 is required to signal that the short-term trend has reversed lower. Traders holding long positions can continue to do so as long as the index holds above the zone between 4,930 and 4,950.

Breach of this support would mean that the index could decline further to 4,880 or to the key medium term support between 4,780 and 4,800. Resistances for the week would be at 5,070 and 5,130. Failure to move above the first resistance would be a cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions.

We maintain a positive medium term view for the index as long as it trades above 4,780. Close below this level would imply that a re-test of the November low at 4,530 is possible.

Global Cues

The bias in global equity markets was clearly negative last week and most benchmarks closed with mild losses. CBOE VIX spiked up to 23 on Friday indicating that investors were getting edgy with this directionless market movement. In a week that equities trudged sideways, commodities performed relatively better and Reuters CRB index closed 1 per cent higher last week. The dollar index too closed over 2 per cent higher last week causing a ripple of worry through equity markets.

Dow gave up all the gains made in the previous week by closing 142 points lower. But this index has been moving in an extremely narrow band between 10,200 and 10,500 over the last five weeks and the bias remains positive for the medium term and the possibility of new high also remain open as long as the index trades above 10,200. Targets on an upward break-out remain at 10,759 or 11,080.

Pivotals: Reliance Industries (Rs 1,010.4)

Reliance Industries dragged rest of the market down last week with the decline of Rs 58. This was in line with our expectation of a fall to Rs 1,008. Strong close below the 50-day moving average at Rs 1,050 is a cause for worry. But the stock has support in the immediate vicinity at Rs 1,011 where a trough was formed on November 27. A reversal is possible from here that can take the stock higher to Rs 1,050 and Rs 1,080 in the near term.

Inability to rise above the first resistance will result in a decline towards Rs 988 or Rs 975. Medium-term trend in RIL is sideways and the stock is moving in a band between Rs 850 and Rs 1,200 in this period. Medium-term investors can accumulate the stock on declines close to the lower end of this range.

SBI (Rs 2,144.9)

SBI too took a decisive step down towards the lower end of its medium term range between Rs 2,050 and Rs 2,500. The short-term trend in the stock reversed lower from the December 10 peak of Rs 2,344. This move can continue to drag the stock down to the support zone between Rs 2,045 and Rs 2,060. Fresh long positions should be avoided on a close below Rs 2,050 since the next target for the stock is between Rs 1,900 and Rs 1,950.

Short term resistances for the stock are at Rs 2,225 and Rs 2,280. Failure to move above the first resistance would be the cue for short-term traders to initiate fresh short positions with a stop at Rs 2,250.

Tata Steel (Rs 563.2)

Tata Steel defied the market weakness last week and closed with 3 per cent weekly gain. Reversal above Rs 530 denotes strength in the short term and a possible move higher to Rs 600 or Rs 636. But the stock is likely to face strong resistance around the previous peak of Rs 600 and short-term traders can take some money off the table around this level. Stop loss for short term can be at Rs 530. Supports below Rs 530 are at Rs 490 and Rs 430. Medium-term investors can continue to hold the stock as long as it trades above Rs 430.

Infosys (Rs 2,526.5)

Infosys recorded the first emphatic weekly close above its life-time high of Rs 2,439 recorded in February 2007. The stock can race higher to Rs 2,637 or Rs 2,840 over the medium term.

Traders can therefore continue to hold the stock with a stop at Rs 2,470. Subsequent support for the stock is at Rs 2,440 and Rs 2,400.

Traders can buy on declines as long as the stock holds above Rs 2,400.

The medium-term view is also positive and investors can hold as long as it holds above the previous peak of Rs 2,439.

ONGC (Rs 1,185.5)

ONGC moved in an extremely narrow range between Rs 1,180 and Rs 1,220 last week. The medium-term trend in the stock is up since the October 29 low. But it is facing stiff resistance in the zone between Rs 1,200 and Rs 1,220 and fresh longs are recommended only on a move beyond this zone with the target of Rs 1,270.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,548.5)

Maruti eased lower gradually to end the week with loss of Rs 38. Immediate supports are at Rs 1,515 and Rs 1,480. Short term traders can hold with a stop at Rs 1,510. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 1,615 and Rs 1,657. Failure to move above the first resistance would imply continued weakness in the near term

RIL – RNRL update
-Arguments in RIL-RNRL D6 gas case conclude at SC (Supreme Court)
Solicitor General Says:
-Government property being used for mergers-demergers
-EGoM (Empowered Group of Minister) decided pricing, allocation can't be challenged
-Govt has been subject to trial by ambush
-Surprised that RIL claimed RNRL allocated gas by EGoM
-RIL no more than an agent for selling gas

Reliance Calls: stocks that are in news today:
-MRF FY09 results today
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-SEBI asks govt to mull action against RIL for allegedly routing funds to dummy cos for buying large quantity of its shares in 2000: PTI
-Telangana impact: KCR warns that illegal lands acquired by Dr Reddy's and IMAX will be confiscated once Telangana is formed
-Lilly wins British drug patent case versus Dr Reddy's
-REC FPO to hit markets in January-February 2010: Power Ministry
-ONGC declares 2 gas finds, Rs 18 per share dividend
-Bright Brothers open offer at Rs 50 (CMP 43)
-Golden Tobacco board meet to consider development of properties
-Indiabulls Financials, Societe General sever ties for life insurance JV – FE

 

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

SUPPORT

5013

5004

4981

4966

RESISTANCE

5048

5072

5087

5095

5110

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 

 

 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.

Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.

Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)

Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)

Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)

Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES

Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES

Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	5041.75	( -0.01 %)	-0.30
		1	2	3
Resistance		5066.25	5090.75	5117.30
Support		5015.20	4988.65	4964.15

	16894.25		( -0.11 %)	-18.52
			1	2	3
Resistance			16973.85	17053.44	17127.37
Support			16820.33	16746.40	16666.81

 

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	17-Dec-2009	2356.45	2163.63	192.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	17-Dec-2009	1225.62	1092.34	133.28

 

 

stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%

_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation

ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 18th Dec 2009

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

SUPPORT

5013

5004

4981

4966

RESISTANCE

5048

5072

5087

5095

5110

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Ranbaxy, Pantaloon Retail, Tata Chem, ACC, Bajaj Auto, Hotel Leela, Cipla, Dr Reddy, Sail Ltd & Gtl Ltd.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Off shore, Andhra Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Idea, Tata Comm, Orient Bank, Allahabad Bank, BRFL, Lic house & IOB.
 Nifty is in Down trend 
 

 

 NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5013 level, selling may continue up to 5004-5006 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4989-4991 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 5046-5048 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 5070-5072 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5085-5087 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5093-5095 zone. Stop Loss at 5108-5110 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4981-4983 zone can create panic up to 4966-4968 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.

Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX: 
 Selling may continue up to 16670.48-16672.48 zone.

Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 17065.77-17067.77 zone.
 
Equity:
 
DLF (NSE Cash)

Down side is limited & may recover from lower levels.

Below 362 level, selling may continue up to 358 level.

Above 369 level, expect short covering up to 377-379 zone by non-stop.
 
 
CROMPTON GREAVES (NSE Cash)

Explosive & will zoom.

Down side risk up to 415 level also possible. Above 424-426 zone, it can zoom up to 444 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 448-450 zone by non-stop.

If breaks & sustains below 415 level, then expect unwinding up to 401 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 398 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
ATLANTA LTD (NSE Cash)

No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls may get trapped at higher levels.

Above 174 level, rally may continue up to 177 & 178 levels.

Below 170 level, expect profit booking up to 148 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 147 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
DR.REDDY'S LABS (NSE Cash)

Explosive & will zoom.

Above 1186 & 1192 levels, rally may continue up to 1216 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1224-1226 zone by non-stop.

Below 1163 level, expect profit booking up to 1150 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1140 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.15.30? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy HCL TECH FUTURES (NSE) with a Stop Loss of 343.00-345.00 zone. 

Target at 376.80-378.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.05? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy YES BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 245.00-247.00 zone. 

Target at 261.80-263.80 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.20? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy CANARA BANK (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 377.00-379.00 zone. 

Target at 391.00-393.00 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):  
TATASTEEL 560 PUT OPTION

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 16 level, expect short covering up to 19 level by non-stop.

Below 12 level, selling may continue up to 10 level.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

Expected to gain. 

Down side risk up to 71 level also possible. Above 87 & 90 levels, it can zoom up to 107-109 zone by non-stop.

Below 63 level, expect further selling up to 53-55 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
TCS FUTURES

Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Down side risk up to 710 & 716 levels also possible. Keep a Stop Loss at 701-703 zone. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Will try to rally up to 730 level. Above 736 level, expect a jump up to 742-744 zone by non-stop.
 
 
HOUSING DEV & INFRA FUTURES

Explosive & Negative Factor is that Stop Loss is far on down side.

Below 347 level, expect profit booking up to 334 level by non-stop. Keep a Stop Loss at 332 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

354 & 355 levels will continue to resist up move. Above 372 level, expect a jump up to 375-377 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
GLENMARK PHARM (NSE Cash)
Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 275.45-277.45 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 124.20-126.20 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	5041.75	( -0.01 %)	-0.30
		1	2	3
Resistance		5066.25	5090.75	5117.30
Support		5015.20	4988.65	4964.15

	16894.25		( -0.11 %)	-18.52
			1	2	3
Resistance			16973.85	17053.44	17127.37
Support			16820.33	16746.40	16666.81

 

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	17-Dec-2009	2356.45	2163.63	192.82

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	17-Dec-2009	1225.62	1092.34	133.28

 

 

stocks that are in news today:
-Board meet: Pipavav Shipyard on general business activity
-Bright Bros buy back offer at maximum Rs 50/share
-Sona Koya eyes acquisition in aerospace –DNA
-Bank of Baroda: FIIs can purchase in open market
-IFCI still in NSE F&O curb
-Tata Motors Group global sales grew by 62% in November 2009 versus November 2008
-No circuit filter for D-link India today
-Aarey Drugs approves 2:1 rights issue at Rs 25 (cmp 44)
-KRBL board approves 1:10 stock split
-Indian ADRs: HDFC Bank down 4.7%, ICICI Bank down 3.5%

_Reliance Calls: RNRL – Dadri case update
-UP government initiates repossession procedure for Dadri land
-CNBC-TV18 ALERT: Dadri land allotted to ADAG company power plant
-UP Power Secretary asks land to be returned to farmers ready to return compensation

ketan lakhani_Reliance Calls: RIL-RNRL case update: RIL says
-If 40 mmscmd sold at $2.34, will get return of 2.6%
-Rate of return even lower than borrowing cost
-Selling at $2.34/mmbtu subsidy to RNRL will be $6.3 billion
-Company borrowed $6 bn at average rate of 10%
-At $2.34/mmBtu, net return is $1.8 on investment of $12      
-At valuation of $4.2/mmbtu, total cost is $1.94/mmBtu
-By selling 40 mmscmd at $2.34/mmbtu, profit $0.23
-Return of equity pre tax at 3.9%; post tax at 2.5%
-Ind norm for equity return for similar project at 20%

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 17th dec 2009

 

 Intraday calls for 17th Dec 2009
+ve Sector, Script : ABB, Auropharma, HCL-infosys, INFY
Buy Dr.Reddy-1143 for 1161 with sl 1133
Buy Abirnuvo-869 for 884-891 with sl 860
Buy Nagarconstru-158 for 162-164 with sl 155
Buy Bhusansteel-1341 above 1350 for 1380 with sl 1333
 

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

SUPPORT

5028

5000

4975

4966

4941

RESISTANCE

5065

5084

5092

5118

HAVELS;JSWSTEEL;SESAGOA;PUNJLLOYRD;UNITECH;BHARATI;INFOSYS;JINDALSTEEL 

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
This is list of 10 strong futures:

 Ranbaxy, Idea, ACC, Hotel Leela, Bajaj Auto, BEL, Divi'S Lab, Chambal Fert, Sail Ltd & Infosys Tech.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

 Andhra Bank, Orient Bank, Ivrcl Infra, Tata Comm, Aban Off shore, IDFC, Allahabad Bank, IOB, Corporation Bank & Bank Of India.
 Nifty is in Down trend  

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Below 5028 level, expect profit booking up to 5000-5002 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4975-4977 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 5051 level & at 5056-5058 zone. Above these levels, buying may continue up to 5065 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5082-5084 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5090-5092 zone. Stop Loss at 5116-5118 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4966-4968 zone can create panic up to 4941-4943 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors: 

Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
CNX BANK INDEX (F&O):  
Selling may continue up to 8510.80-8512.80 zone.

Stop Loss is too far on upper side at 8853.20-8855.20 zone.
 
Equity:
ORCHID CHEM (NSE Cash)

Down side may be limited.

Below 196 & 197 levels, selling may continue up to 186 level by non-stop.

Hurdle at 201 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 225 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 235 level by non-stop.
 
 
HAVELLS INDIA (NSE Cash)

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 480 level, rally may continue up to 486 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 493 level by non-stop.

Support at 472 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 433 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 425 level by non-stop.
 
 
JSW STEEL (NSE Cash)

Explosive. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Above 988 level, rally may continue up to 1027-1029 zone by non-stop.

Below 968 level, expect profit booking up to 943 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 936 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
 
UNITED SPIRITS (NSE Cash)

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 1315 level, rally may continue up to 1324 level.

Below 1289 level, expect profit booking up to 1259 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 1250 level by non-stop.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.22.85? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Sell ONGC CORPN (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 1209.85-1211.85 zone. 

Target at 1163.05-1165.05 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.25? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy ROLTA (I) (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 178.60-180.60 zone. 

Target at 196.40-198.40 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.9.15? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy PUNJ LLOYD (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 192.50-194.50 zone. 

Target at 208.80-210.80 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
 
NIFTY 5100 CALL OPTION

Expected to fall. But risk is high.

Hurdles at 70 & 74 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 81 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 91-93 zone by non-stop.

Below 60 level, selling will continue up to 45 & 48 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 37-39 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATASTEEL 560 CALL OPTION

Explosive & Will zoom.

Hurdles at 19 & 20 levels. Above these levels, it can zoom up to 26-28 zone by non-stop.

Support at 14-16 zone. Below this zone, expect profit booking up to 13 level. Stop Loss can be kept at this level.

 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
INFOSYS FUTURES

Explosive. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Above 2559 level, rally may continue up to 2577 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 2607-2609 zone by non-stop.

Support at 2508 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 2471 & 2483 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 2451-2453 zone by non-stop. Stop Loss can be kept at this level & too far on down side.
 
 
BHARTI AIRTEL FUTURES 

Explosive. It will zoom.

Above 329 level, it can zoom up to 337 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 339-341 zone by non-stop.

Support at 323 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 318 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 317 level and buy. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:  
TATA MOTORS (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 756.65-758.65 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
 
JINDAL STEEL POW (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 756.80-758.80 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Selling seen & it may continue.
 
SPOT INDEX LEVELS TODAY

	5042.05	( 0.18 %)	9.00
		1	2	3
Resistance		5072.27	5102.48	5137.72
Support		5006.82	4971.58	4941.37

	16912.77		( 0.21 %)	35.61
			1	2	3
Resistance			17013.28	17113.79	17231.46
Support			16795.10	16677.43	16576.92

 

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	16-Dec-2009	2142.4	2497.65	-355.25

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	16-Dec-2009	1381.57	1106.65	274.92

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
 

Market Outlook 16th Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 16th Dec 2009
+ve Sector, Script : Birlacorp, Gail, GTL, NTPC
Buy ABB-752 above 755 for 767-781 with sl 745
Buy Maruthi-1578 above 1585 for 1607-1610 with sl 1575
Buy CromptGreav-405 for 415-418 with sl 400
Buy Bajajhind-210 above 212 for 216-218 with sl 209

Positional
Buy Dr.Reddy-1123 for 1161 with sl 1110
Buy GVKPIL-47 for 51 with sl 45[Closing basis]

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

5005

4965

4924

RESISTANCE

5041

5054

5097

5137

5177

5218

COX&KING;WIPRO;SESAGOA;ITC;NTPC;PATNI;EDSERVE

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Orchid Chem, Ranbaxy, Bajaj Auto, Cipla, BEL, GTL Infra, ACC, Hotel Leela, Sail Ltd & Hind Zinc. 

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Orient Bank, Tata Comm, Andhra Bank, IDFC, Allahabad Bank, Aban Off shore, IOB, Nagarjuna Const, Ivrcl Infra & Corporation Bank.
Nifty is in Down trend  

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Selling may continue up to 5005-5007 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 5041 & 5054 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5095-5097 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5135-5137 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 5175-5177 zone. Stop Loss at 5216-5218 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 4965-4967 zone can create panic up to 4924-4926 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX:
Selling may continue up to 16824-16826 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 16887 & 16937 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 17074-17076 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 17210-17212 zone by non-stop.

Sell if touches 17347-17349 zone. Stop Loss at 17484-17486 zone.

On Negative Side, break below 16687-16689 zone can create panic up to 16550-16552 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then down trend may continue and have caution.

 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 16210.44.
Up Side Target at 18226.48.
 
 
CNX BANK INDEX (F&O) fallen very heavily in last 3 days.
Before you go short, know the risk & trade.

Down side Target at 8120-8122 zone within 3 days.

Do you know the risk?

Huge risk of 563.65 points from the closing price of yesterday. Stop Loss is at 9298.00-9300.00 zone.
 
Equity: 
 STATE BANK (NSE Cash)

Expect further fall. But Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Above 2202 level, expect short covering up to 2260 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 2265 level and sell.

Below 2160 & 2175 levels, selling may continue up to 2090 & 2095 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 2008-2010 zone by non-stop.
 
 
COX & KINGS (I) (NSE Cash)

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 431 level, rally may continue up to 439 level & thereafter expect a jump up to 450 level by non-stop.

Support at 420 & 423 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 409 level by non-stop.
 
ABAN OFFSHORE (NSE Cash)

Expect further fall. But Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Above 1204 level, expect short covering up to 1243 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 1251 level and sell.

Below 1173 & 1180 levels, selling may continue up to 1122 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 1109-1111 zone by non-stop.
 
ITC LTD (NSE Cash)

Explosive. Stop Loss is too far on down side. 

Will zoom up to 253 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 257-259 zone by non-stop.

Down side risk up to 247-249 zone also possible. Stop Loss can be kept at 243 level & too far on down side.

 
Will you take a risk of Rs.11.50? (From Yesterday's closing price).
 

Then Buy SESA GOA (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 359.05-361.05 zone. 

Target at 382.30-384.30 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.21.70? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy WIPRO LTD (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 637.40-639.40 zone. 

Target at 678.70-680.70 zone.
 
 
Will you take a risk of Rs.7.40? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy NTPC (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 200.95-202.95 zone. 

Target at 213.75-215.75 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE): 
ICICIBANK 840 PUT OPTION

Explosive. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Below 33 level, expect profit booking up to 21 & 22 levels.

Hurdle at 37-39 zone. Above this zone, it can zoom up to 52 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 54-56 zone by non stop.
 
 
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

Explosive. Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Down Side risk up to 87 level also possible. Will zoom up to 107 & 115 levels on upper side. If crosses & sustains at above these levels then it can zoom up to 139 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 145-147 zone by non-stop.

Below 73 level, expect profit booking up to 61 level. Stop Loss can be kept at around this level & Stop Loss is too far on down side.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
DLF FUTURES 

Weak scrip. Expect further fall.

Short rallies up to 384 & 385 levels can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 387 level.

Below 374-376 zone, selling may continue up to 370 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 365-367 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA MOTORS FUTURES 

Expect further fall. But Stop Loss is too far on upper side.

Above 695 level, expect short covering up to 710 level. Keep a Stop Loss at 716 level and sell.

Below 685 level, selling may continue up to 679-681 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to

653-655 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS: .
PATNI COMPUTER SYSTEMS (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 517.60 level (or) even up to 540.55-542.55 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
 
EDSERV SOFTSYSTEMS (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 3 Month's Holding. Target at 355.70 level (or) even up to 383.25-385.25 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Month: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 

 

SPOT INDEX LEVELS

	5033.05	( -1.42 %)	-72.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		5102.25	5171.45	5213.45
Support		4991.05	4949.05	4879.85

	16877.16		( -1.29 %)	-220.39
			1	2	3
Resistance			17106.49	17335.83	17471.18
Support			16741.80	16606.45	16377.11

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	15-Dec-2009	2259.23	2265.37	-6.14

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	15-Dec-2009	1273.19	1234.5	38.69

 

 

Bhushan Steel: From NewsWire18
-May tie up with Japanese company for India Steel Project: Sources
-May announce alliance with Japanese company on Wednesday

_Reliance Calls: stocks that are in news today:
-Orchid Chemical to sell generic injectable finished dosage from pharma business to Hospira for $400 million
-DLF board approved integration between DLF Cyber City and Caraf Builders in 60:40 ratio
-Shree Cements advance tax at Rs 31 crore versus Rs 40.5 crore
-Bharati Shipyard says LIC sells 2.14% stake in company
-Kingfisher still in NSE F&O curb
-PSU Bank employees on 1-day strike today against consolidation
-Tata Steel update: Corus announces €35 million investment in French steel mill after securing rail contract
-FIIs can buy shares of Union Bank as FII investment falls below prescribed limit
-Kalindee Rail board meet on December 22 for issuance of convertible warrants to promoters
-Uttam Galva open offer opens on December 19, closes on January 7
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 15th Dec 2009

Intraday calls for 15th Dec 2009
Buy Wipro-658 above 665 for 674-684 with sl 660
Buy Indiacem-120 for 125-127 with sl 118
Buy BajajAuto-1783 for 1800-1811 with sl 1777
Buy ABAN-1243 for 1265-1273 with sl 1230

 

NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS

5120

5151

5170

5179

5199

SUPPORT

5097

5080

5069

5050

5040

5021

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Ranbaxy, Bajaj Auto, Orchid Chem, Hotel Leela, ACC, Chambal Fert, Idea, Sail Ltd, India Cement & Ambuja Cement.

And this is list of 10 Weak futures:

Orient Bank, Tata Comm, Ivrcl Infra, Renuka, Lic house, IOB, Aban Off shore, Allahabad Bank, Andhra Bank & RNRL.
 Nifty is in Up trend   

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Above 5120 level, expect short covering up to 5149-5151 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5168-5170 zone by non-stop.

Support at 5080 & 5097 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 5069-5071 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5050-5052 zone by non-stop.

Below 5040-5042 zone, expect panic up to 5021-5023 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 5177-5179 zone can take it up to 5197-5199 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
CNX BANK INDEX:  
Above 9039 level, expect short covering up to 9099-9101 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 9158-9160 zone by non-stop.

Support at 8997-8999 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 8979 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 8938-8940 zone by non-stop.

Below 8918-8920 zone, expect panic up to 8859-8861 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 9178-9180 zone can take it up to 9237-9239 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.

 
Short-Term Investors:  
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 8550.00
Up Side Target at 9996.00.
 
Equity:  
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash)

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Above 351 level, rally may continue up to 362 level by non-stop.

Support at 345 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 333 & 337 levels by non-stop.
 
 
RANBAXY LABS (NSE Cash)

Explosive scrip. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Above 520 & 522 levels, it can zoom up to 541 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 544-546 zone by non-stop.

Support at 512 level. Below this level, expect profit booking up to 497 level. Stop Loss can be placed at 495 level & too far on down side.
 
BHARTI AIRTEL (NSE Cash)

This scrip can go down further & your risk is high. 

Below 317 & 318 levels, selling may continue up to 300 & 301 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 281-283 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 323 level. Above this level, there is a chance of short covering up to 336 level also possible. Stop Loss can be kept at 337 level & too far on upper side.
 
BATA (I) (NSE Cash)

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

If crosses & sustains at above 201 & 202 levels, then rally may continue up to 208 level by non-stop.

Below 196 & 197 levels, expect profit booking up to 191 level by non-stop.
 
Will you take risk of Rs.2.55? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Sell UNITECH (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 89.00 level. 

Target at 79.60-80.60 zone.
 
 
Will you take risk of Rs.48.70? (From Yesterday's closing price). 

Then Buy INFOSYS TECHNOLO (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 2450.05. 

Target at 2585.95-2587.95 zone.
 
 
Will you take risk of Rs.51.55? (From Yesterday's closing price).

Then Buy BHEL (NSE Cash) with a Stop Loss of 2358.00. 

Target at 2501.70-2503.70 zone.
 
OPTIONS (NSE): 
 NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

Expected to fall. Negative factor is that, up side risk is more.

Up side may be limited up to 77-79 zone. If crosses & sustains, then it can zoom up to 93 level by non-stop.

Below 63-65 zone, unwinding may continue up to 42 & 52 levels and thereafter it can tumble up to 35-37 zone by non-stop.
 
TATASTEEL 540 PUT OPTION

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Below 14-16 zone, unwinding may continue up to 11 level by non-stop.

20 & 21 levels will continue to resist up move. If crosses & sustains, then it can zoom up to 25 level by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):  
ICICI BANK FUTURES

Expect volatility.

Below 844 & 849 levels, selling may continue up to 835 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 825-827 zone by non-stop.

Hurdle at 860 level. Above this level, expect short covering up to 874 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 879-881 zone by non-stop.
 
 
SBI FUTURES 

Expect volatility.

Up side rally up to 2251 level is possible. Below 2226 & 2242 levels, selling may continue up to 2202 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 2194-2196 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 2270 level can take it up to 2287 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 2297-2299 zone by non-stop.
 
INVESTMENT BUYS:
STEEL AUTHORITY (NSE Cash)  

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 232 level (or) even up to 247-249 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
BAJAJ AUTO (NSE Cash)

Good looking scrip for 1 Month Holding. Target at 1996 level (or) even up to 2000-2002 zone.

Negative Factors:

1 Day: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.

1 Week: Choppy Trading expected & will rebound from lower levels.
 
SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	5105.70	( -0.23 %)	-11.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		5144.88	5184.07	5211.43
Support		5078.33	5050.97	5011.78

	17097.55		( -0.13 %)	-21.48
			1	2	3
Resistance			17232.44	17367.32	17459.46
Support			17005.42	16913.28	16778.40

Q3 Advance Tax numbers ((All YoY except where mentioned QoQ))
-Tata Motors pays Rs 100 crore versus Nil (YoY)
-M&M pays Rs 195 crore versus Rs 4.5 crore (YoY)
-Tata Steel pays Rs 650 crore versus Rs 260 crore (YoY)
-Hindalco pays Rs 100 crore versus Rs 40 crore
-HUL pays Rs 200 crore versus Rs 155 crore: Sources
-L&T pays Rs 270 crore versus Rs 312 crore (YoY)
-Grasim Q3 advance tax at Rs 150 crore versus Rs 75 crore: Sources
-UltraTech pays Rs 90 crore versus Rs 65 crore (YoY)
-HDFC Q3 advance tax at Rs 320 crore versus Rs 280 crore: Sources
-Dena Bank pays Rs 65 crore versus Rs 60 crore (YoY)
-IndusInd Bank pays Rs 65 crore versus Rs 22 crore (YoY)
-Bank Of Baroda pays Rs 330 crore versus Rs 220 crore (YoY)
-Bank Of India pays Rs 102 crore versus Rs 370 crore (YoY)

-Central Bank pays Rs 138 crore versus Rs 163 crore (YoY)
-Tata Power pays Rs 81 crore versus Rs 29 crore (YoY)
-Tata Chem pays Rs 40 crore versus Rs 83 crore (YoY)
-Indian Oil Q3 advance tax nil versus Rs 1,100 crore (QoQ)
-BPCL Q3 advance tax at nil 
-Bajaj Auto pays Rs 320 crore versus Rs 105 crore

 

 stocks that are in news today:
-Sources indicate RIL yet to decide on the final bid for Lyondell-basel
-JSW Energy sets issue price of Rs 100/share (Rs 5 discount to retail investors)

 

 

-GMR to raise Rs 1,200 crore via stake sale in GMR Energy, in talks with Temasek – Agencies
-Kingfisher still in NSE F&O curb
-Golden Tobacco board meet on December 21 to consider development of properties
-Bajaj Hindusthan Q4 numbers today
-Godrej Consumer board meet today on fund raising
-Infra firms may get MAT relief – BS (Budget expectations)
-Gemini Communication close to bagging BSNL's Rs 1,000 crore Wimax deal – DNA
-Redington board approves investment of $29 million into its wholly owned subsidiary

 

 

FUNDS DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	14-Dec-2009	1829.1	1766.83	62.27

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	14-Dec-2009	1212.42	1103.5	108.92

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook 14th Dec & weekly update till 18th dec 2009

Strong Futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures: Idea, BEL, Hotel Leela, Dena Bank, Chambal Fert, Ranbaxy, McDowell-N, Hind Zinc, Hind Petro & BPCL.
Weak Futures
This is the list of 10 Weak Futures: Nagarjuna Const, Aban Off shore, Bank of Baroda, Renuka, Lic house, Orient Bank, Punj Lloyd, RNRL, Ivrcl Infra & Voltas Ltd.

Nifty is in Up trend

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
 
Above 5145 level, expect short covering up to 5185 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 5225-5227 zone by non-stop.

Support at 5109-5111 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 5098 & 5102 levels and thereafter slide may continue up to 5069-5071 zone by non-stop.

Below 5056-5058 zone, expect panic up to 5016-5018 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 5238-5240 zone can take it up to 5278-5280 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 4801.00.
Up Side Target at 5477.00.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
Above 17140 level, expect short covering up to 17251-17253 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 17325-17327 zone by non-stop.

Support at 17046 & 17109 levels. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 17007-17009 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 16933-16935 zone by non-stop.

Below 16896-16898 zone, expect panic up to 16822-16824 zone.

On Positive Side, cross above 17362-17364 zone can take it up to 17436-17438 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
 
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 16210.44.
Up Side Target at 18226.48.
 
Equity:
 
STEEL AUTHORITY (NSE Cash)

Explosive Stock & any time it may take off.

Down side risk up to 208 level also possible. Stop Loss at 205 level.

Will zoom up to 212 & 214 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 217 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 219-221 zone by non-stop.
 
 
BAJAJ AUTO (NSE Cash)

Technically Explosive. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Down side risk up to 1641 level also possible. Stop Loss at 1640 level.

Will zoom up to 1732 & 1733 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 1817 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 1824-1826 zone by non-stop.
 
COX & KINGS (I) (NSE Cash)

Excellent debut. If you are willing to take high risk & expecting high returns then buy.

Down side risk up to 343 level also possible. Stop Loss is too far on down side at 335 level.

Above 434 level, rally may continue up to 516 level by non-stop.
 
SHR RENUKA SUGARS (NSE Cash)

Down side is limited. 

Down side risk may be limited up to 209 & 211 levels.

Resistance is too far at 220 level & Stop Loss for selling can be kept at 222 level. Too far on upper side.
 
OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5000 PUT OPTION

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Down side risk up to 61 level also possible. Stop Loss can be kept at 51 level.

Above 88 level, expect rally up to 98 level by non-stop.
 
SBIN 2280 PUT OPTION

Technically Bullish & Negative factor is that Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Down side risk up to 52 level also possible. Stop Loss can be kept at 49 level. Too far on down side.

Above 74 & 77 levels, expect rally up to 93 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 99-101 zone by non-stop.
 
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
 
JINDAL STEEL & POWER FUTURES 

Technically Explosive. Negative factor is that, Stop Loss is too far on down side.

Down side risk up to 740 level also possible. Stop Loss at 733 level.

It will zoom up to 753 & 760 levels on upper side. Above 769 level, expect a jump up to 773-775 zone by non-stop.
 
 
TATA STEEL FUTURES 

No trigger & Range bound trading expected.

Selling may continue up to 536 level. Below this level, it can tumble up to 530 level by non-stop.

Above 553 level, expect short covering up to 560 level by non-stop.
 

 

INDEX SPOT LEVELS

	5117.30	( -0.34 %)	-17.35
		1	2	3
Resistance		5170.43	5223.57	5264.58
Support		5076.28	5035.27	4982.13

	17119.03		( -0.41 %)	-70.28
			1	2	3
Resistance			17295.12	17471.21	17590.71
Support			16999.53	16880.03	16703.94

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	11-Dec-2009	2156.5	1818.04	338.46

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	11-Dec-2009	1523.92	1531.09	-7.17

 

 

Index Outlook — Awaiting the Santa Claus rally

Sensex (17,119)

The pause at the threshold is so long-drawn that the Sensex appears frozen around 17,000. With even a stunner such as the Dubai debt fiasco scarcely causing a ripple in the market's serene mood, the index appears set to finish this year with panache, close to or above the 17,000 mark.

Market is however slipping into a lackadaisical mood over the past month with tepid volumes and very low volatility. It is up to Santa Claus now to come jingling in his reindeer sleigh to take the Sensex to a new high.

FII inflows have also slowed down since the beginning of December. Open interest has again crept over 1,10,000 indicating that players are building positions in the hope of a break-out beyond this range soon.

Stock futures nearing one-third of the total open interest quantity is however a cause for concern.

Daily momentum indicators are trudging in a clueless fashion in the neutral region. Weekly oscillators are beginning to emulate this move since the Sensex has not done much over the last four weeks, vacillating between 16,200 and 17,400.

The two lines of Bollinger band in the daily chart have however drawn extremely close implying that a break-out is imminent.

The sideways move recorded last week has reinforced the positive medium term view and makes it likely that the index can make one more dash higher before 2009 draws to a close.

Medium term target for the move from July low is 17,970 and then 19,600. If we consider the entire intermediate term up-move from the March lows, next target for the index is at 17,866.

Thus we arrive at the potential target between 17,900 and 18,200 if it tries to break lose before the year end. Decline below 16,100 is needed to make the medium term negative again. But failure to make a new high next week will mean that the index will remain in the range between 16,000 and 17,500 for few more weeks.

It is likely that the bulls make one more attempt to drive the Sensex higher next week. Short-term targets for the index are 17,493 or 17,747. Short-term traders can book some profit if the index fails to move above 17,500.

Target above 17,747 is 18,170. Supports for the week would be at 16,900 and 16,640. Fresh purchases are to be avoided on a close below the second support.

Nifty (5,117.3)

Nifty seemed intimidated by the peak of 5,181.9 and recoiled again and again from this level last week. But the sideways move between 5,050 and 5,180 coming between the medium term uptrend appears to be consolidation before the index breaks out to a new 2009 peak. First target for the move from 3,918 is at 5,319.

Surprisingly, extrapolating the move from November 27 low also gives us the target of 5,319 followed by 5,462. Traders can therefore stay long with a stop at 5,030 to take advantage of this upward break-out. Subsequent supports are at 4,949 and 4,806. Fresh longs should be avoided only on a close below 4,949.

The medium term view for the index remains positive but we continue to advise caution in the zone between 5,300 and 5,400.

Global Cues

Global benchmarks closed the week slightly in the negative after trudging sideways for most part. Volumes declined in most markets as investors took off for year-end breaks. Volatility too moved to the lower end of its current trading range as the US markets rallied higher on Friday on better than expected retail sales number. Though Dow began the week on a shaky note, it recovered in the second half to close at a 14-month high. This index has been moving in an extremely narrow range between 10,250 and 10,500 over the last four weeks. Since the medium and intermediate term trend in the index continues to be up, we can expect one more spurt higher to 10,759 or 11,080 in the beginning of January. A close below 10,000 would be the first requisite to negate the positive short-term view for this index.

Asian indices too moved sideways but most of them are ruling at or close to 52-week highs. Some such as Straits Times Index and Taiwan Weighted Index recorded multi-month highs last week. —

Pivotals — Reliance Industries (Rs 1,068.9)

There was a steep plunge in RIL on Monday but the slide was stemmed at Rs 1,050 and the stock moved sideways thereafter. A spinning top candlestick pattern is apparent in the weekly chart denoting indecision. The medium-term up-trend that commenced at the Rs 903 trough continues to be in force and has the targets of Rs 1,140 and then Rs 1,221. As long as the stock does not record a close below Rs 1,030, these targets remain achievable.

The stock is, however, under duress from a short term perspective and a decline to Rs 1,050 or Rs 1,018 is possible in this time-frame. Key resistance for the week is at Rs 1,120 and fresh purchases are recommended only on a close above this level.

SBI (Rs 2,265.7)

SBI moved sideways with a negative bias last week finally closing with a loss of Rs 62. The stock has not been going anywhere for the past five weeks and has been shackled within the range between Rs 2,200 and Rs 2,400. It will continue to face strong resistance in the zone between Rs 2,340 and Rs 2,400 in the week ahead and support will be available at Rs 2,260 and Rs 2,200.

In other words, the narrow sideways move can continue for a few more sessions and traders can avoid trading on this counter while this trend lasts. The medium term view for this stock is also neutral and the range for this period is between Rs 2,050 and Rs 2,500.

Tata Steel (Rs 545.6)

Tata Steel moved in line with our expectation to reverse below the peak of Rs 600 to the intra-week low of Rs 536 and ended with 5 per cent weekly loss. The short-term trend has now reversed lower but the slide can halt at Rs 520 as indicated last week. Movement in the zone between Rs 520 and Rs 600 will be conducive to the continuation of the rally in near term to take the stock higher towards Rs 660. Subsequent supports are at Rs 506 and Rs 490. Near term trend will turn negative only on a decline below the second support.

Though the near-term trend has not deteriorated much, investors need to exercise caution at this juncture since the stock is reversing from the key medium-term resistance around Rs 600. Decline below Rs 490 can pull Tata Steel to Rs 430 over the medium term.

Infosys (Rs 2,454.7)

Infosys recorded a new life-time high of Rs 2,486 and closed the week on a positive note with 3 per cent gain. Short-term chart pattern is bullish and the stock can move higher to Rs 2,510 or Rs 2,637 in the near term. Traders holding long positions can continue to do so with a stop at Rs 2,360.

The stock appears to have begun yet another leg of the intermediate term up-trend that is in place since March. Medium term investors can hold the stock with a stop at Rs 2,120.

ONGC (Rs 1,189.9)

The rally in ONGC last week could not take it past the resistance at Rs 1,200 thus maintaining a neutral short-term view. The stock is expected to remain in the range between Rs 1,080 and Rs 1,270 in the near- term.

But this sideways move appears to be a halt before the stock breaks out higher to Rs 1,400 over the medium term. Traders can therefore accumulate the stock in declines with a stop at Rs 1,075.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,586.9)

Maruti Suzuki paused half-way up its medium term range between Rs 1,360 and Rs 1,740. The doji in the weekly chart implies that the stock is struggling to move to a new high and can decline towards Rs 1,370 again in the near term. Strong close above Rs 1,620 is needed to signal that the short-term trend has turned favourable.

 

City Union Bank — Rights Offer: Subscribe

---

The proceeds from the rights offer will enhance the capital adequacy base, allowing the bank to fund its future loan book growth.

---

A very low offer price makes the 1:4 rights offering from City Union Bank a good investment proposition. The company expects to raise Rs 48 crore from the issue. At the rights offer at Rs 6 per share, which is at a 76 per cent discount to the current market price of Rs 25.15, the trailing one year price-earnings multiple (PEM) works out to just 1.4. In the market, the stock trades at a PEM of 6, which is at a discount to peers such as Lakshmi Vilas Bank, Dhanalakshmi Bank. The current price-adjusted book value of the bank stands at 1.2 times.

The proceeds from the rights offer will enhance the capital adequacy base, allowing the bank to fund its future loan book growth. Post-rights, the capital adequacy may improve to over 16 per cent from the current 14.08 per cent. The high capital adequacy will allow the bank to cushion itself, if the RBI chooses to reverse the risk weight reduction on loans, implemented during the previous fiscal.

City Union Bank has strong profitability ratios (return on average assets of 1.5 per cent and return on net worth of 19.7 per cent), good operating efficiencies (cost-income ratio of 37 per cent). Its asset quality too has improved with the net non-performing asset (NNPA)-to advances ratio falling significantly from 3.37 per cent to 1.16 per cent in September 2009 over four-and-a-half years.

Finance

City Union Bank is one of the smaller private banks with 222 branches and a predominant presence in Tamil Nadu. The bank has witnessed an annualised growth of 30 per cent in its loan book during the period 2005-09 while the net profit of the bank also grew at the same rate. A limited branch network has curtailed the low-cost deposit growth. The bank has a higher cost of funds compared to most peers, curtailing its net interest margin. However, given the short-term nature of these instruments, there is scope for the deposits to get re-priced, which reduces interest rate risk. Therefore, the cost of funds would moderate over the next few quarters.

On the assets side, the bank's secured loans as a proportion of advances stood at a high 95 per cent, shielding the bank from write-offs. The bank has a 30 per cent exposure to high-yielding micro, small and medium scale enterprises (MSME) loans. The bank's top industry exposures are textiles, construction and iron and steel.

During the first half of this fiscal, the bank's credit growth moderated to 18.8 per cent, mirroring industry wide trends. Net interest margins fell to 2.75 per cent from 3 per cent, putting pressure on the operating profits. Higher growth in deposits (29.5 per cent) compared to advances was the key reason for margin compression. However, the bank has done well to maintain its net profit growth at 21 per cent, mainly through lower provisioning.

Asset quality concerns surrounding the bank have waned in recent years with net NPAs, as a proportion of the bank's net worth, likely to stand at 8.5 per cent of (post-offer) net worth, down from 28 per cent four years ago. This gives bank adequate cushion against slippage in asset quality.

some concerns

A loan provision coverage of 41 per cent is one of the major concerns for this bank, as the RBI has recently mandated banks to increase their provision coverage to 70 per cent. Though this may dent near-term profitability, it may strengthen the bank's balance-sheet from any adversity, especially in the light of its high proportion of restructured loans (5.51 per cent at the end of March 2009).

Outlook

Though the risks outweigh the positives currently, the bank has huge scope for improvement in parameters such as credit-deposit ratio (64.3 per cent as of September, 30), low-cost deposits (20 per cent of the total deposits) and fee income. Net interest margin, NNPA ratio (from 1.45 per cent to 1.18 per cent) and 'other income' have already begun showing signs of improvement.

Over the long term, the maturity of the bank's loans may increase as it increasingly shifts to term loans from working-capital loans. If this is matched with longer-term deposits, earnings volatility may get minimised. In addition, the bank's core focus areas (retail and MSME) are likely to be margin accretive as the economy revives.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381