Market Outlook for 28.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Godrej Industries reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 20% yoy to Rs. 7.93 bn however, net profit declined 81% yoy to Rs. 50 mn. (BS)
The Department of Telecom appointed Mumbai-based auditor Parekh & Co to scrutinise the accounts of Reliance Communications and its subsidiaries under a special audit to ascertain if there is any violation of revenue reporting norms to avoid payment of licence fees. (BS)
Maruti Suzuki has raised the prices of some of its vehicles by Rs. 5,000 to Rs. 10,000 due to increased input costs and foreign currency changes. (ET)

Economic and Political Headline
The RBI said that the central government's fiscal deficit would shoot up from the earlier estimate of 2.5% to 5.9% of the value of the country's total economic output translating into a deficit escalation from Rs. 1,503.1 bn to Rs. 3,547.31 bn, as per the central bank's estimate of the GDP at Rs. 60,124 bn. (ET)
In a move to help non-banking finance companies and mutual funds meet their liquidity requirements, the RBI has extended its special repo window till September 30, 2009. (ET)
The Consumer confidence (The Conference Board's index) in the US sank to 37.7, the lowest level on record in January, as jobs evaporated and home values sank, signalling a further slide in spending at the start of 2009. (Bloomberg)

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2787 level, rally may continue up to 2815-2817 zone for time being.
Support at 2748 & 2757 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 2717-2719 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2689-2691 zone.
Below 2604-2606 zone, panic may continue up to 2575-2577 zone. Buy if touches this zone. Stop Loss at 2537-2539 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2844-2846 zone it can zoom up to 2863-2865 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then rally may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
There is a chance of false signal. Traders can expect rally further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.
On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions too.

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures: Visual Soft,Power Grid,NTPC,Auro Pharma,Polaris,Hero Honda,Infosys Tech,Cipla,GMR Infra & Reliance.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Satyam Comp,Divis Lab,Punj Lloyd,IVRCL Infra,Zeel,Orient Bank,PNB,Tata Steel,LT & Hindalco.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

FII DATA for 27th Jan
FII -228.56 Cr
DII +139.64 Cr

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,174.73. Up by 58.70 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 845.71. Up by 9.14 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,504.90. Up by 15.44 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 48.94/95 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 49.27/29.
TECH Stocks May Zoom

Trading Calls 28th Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy TCS-499 above 505 for 522 with sl 497 [Trading]

Buy Wipro-226 above 230 for 245 with sl 226

Short Hindzinc-350 @ 360 for 345 with sl 365

Buy Ster-267 above 271 for 285 with sl 168 [Expected Breakout]

Buy Jindalstel-876 above 885 for 920 with sl 878

Buy Cairn-161 for 169 with sl 160 [Breakout]

Buy Crompgreav-131 for 143 with sl 130

Buy HeroHonda-857 for 910 with sl 850 [positional]

+ve to Market :

1. US Market 2. SGX nifty 3. Satyam Issue 4. Reduction expected petrol/diesel price 5. Expected RBI rate cuts in coming days 6. Expected Inflation below 5%

-ve to Market

: 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. RBI's projection on GDP 9. Global meltdown in employment 10. Cost cutting measures in various sectors through exmployment

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2771.35	( 3.46 %)	92.80
		1	2	3
Resistance		2804.02	2836.68	2896.07
Support		2711.97	2652.58	2619.92

	9004.08		( 3.80 %)	329.73
			1	2	3
Resistance			9087.68	9171.28	9320.59
Support			8854.77	8705.46	8621.86

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 27.01.09

Headlines for the day
    Corporate News Headline
    SBI reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 38.3% yoy to Rs. 212.56 bn and net profit increased 37% yoy to Rs. 24.78 bn. (BS)
    ICICI Bank reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 8.11% yoy to Rs. 156.53 bn and net profit increased 39.29% yoy to Rs. 15.6 bn. (BS)
    HUL reported weak Q4'08 results; total revenue increased 16.8% yoy to Rs. 43.08 bn, however, net profit declined 2.49% yoy to Rs. 6.16 bn. (BS)

    Economic and Political Headline
    According to the RBI reports, after recording double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters, the country´s services sector growth decelerated to 9.6% during Q2 FY09. (ET)
    The Indian economy may grow 6.8% in the 12 months ending March 31, less than the 7.7% forecasted in September, its weakest pace in six years, pulled down by the global recession, the RBI said. (Bloomberg)
    In US, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% to an annual rate of 4.74 mn propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression and the Conference Board's Index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% as the supply of money expanded. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Above 2683 level, expect short covering up to 2711-2713 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2739-2741 zone by non-stop.

Support at 2651-2653 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 2644-2646 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2623-2625 zone.

Buy if touches 2614-2616 zone. Stop Loss at 2586-2588 zone.

On Positive Side, above 2748-2750 zone it can zoom up to 2776-2778 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.
 

BSE SENSEX   
 False signal is likely. Technically profit booking should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Polaris, Balrampur Chini, Power Grid, Ultra Cem, Neyveli, BEL, Hero Honda, Colpal, Naukri & Matrix Labs. 

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

Rolta, Aban, IVRCL  Infra, DLF, Zeel, Punjlloyd, Nagar Const, Welguj, TVS Motor, Kotak Bank & Siemens. 
Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,116.03. Up by 38.47 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 836.57. Up by 4.62 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,489.46. Down by 12.17 points.

Indian financial markets were closed on yesterday for a holiday.

 

OIL & GAS INDEX Stocks May Zoom

 

NIFTY AND SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR THE DAY

	2678.55	( -1.30 %)	-35.25
		1	2	3
Resistance		2742.18	2805.82	2846.08
Support		2638.28	2598.02	2534.38

	8674.35		( -1.58 %)	-139.49
			1	2	3
Resistance			8811.59	8948.84	9038.83
Support			8584.35	8494.36	8357.11

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market outlook for 23.01.09

Headlines for the day

   Corporate News Headline

   Reliance Industries reported weak Q3'09 results; total revenue decreased 8.75% yoy to Rs. 315.63 bn and net profit excluding exceptional items, fell 9.8% to Rs. 35.01 bn. (ET)

   Ranbaxy Laboratories reported weak Q4'08 results; total revenue increased 6.4% yoy to Rs. 19.1 bn, however, it posted a net loss of Rs. 6.8 bn as against a profit of Rs. 1.88 bn during the same quarter last year. (ET)

   Ashok Leyland has bagged an order from Delhi Transport Corporation for supplying 875 ultra-low entry CNG buses, worth Rs. 4.8 bn crore and is accompanied by a Rs. 7.1 bn crore maintenance contract for 12 years. (ET)

   Economic and Political Headline

   Inflation increased to 5.6% for the week ended January 10, 2009, due to higher prices of edible items such as fruits and vegetables. (BS)

   The US government data revealed that the home prices in November declined 8.7% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 1991. Housing starts, fell 16% in December to an annual rate of 550,000. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 62,000 to 589,000 in the week ended January 17, 2009. (Bloomberg)

   European industrial orders fell by 26% yoy, the most on record in November as the recession curtailed manufacturers' demand for new machines and equipment. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

 Below 2680 level, expect profit booking up to 2671-2673 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2648-2650 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 2702 & 2715 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 2722-2724 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2745-2747 zone.

Above 2752-2754 zone, it can zoom up to 2774-2776 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2641-2643 zone. Stop Loss at 2619-2621 zone.

 

 

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

 

BSE SENSEX  

False signal is likely. Technically recovery should continue.

 

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions

 

Trading Calls 23rd Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy GDL-74.95 for 80 with sl 73

Buy Natioalumn-198 for 205 with sl 195

Short JPHydro-30 for 27 with sl 31

Short Relcapital-392 for 374 with sl 400

Short Albk-52 for 47 with sl 53.50

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. US Market 9.SGX Nifty

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Naukri, Neyveli, Nation Alum, Polaris, Ultra Cem, Balram Chin, GMR Infra, HPCL & BEL.

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

J Stainless, DLF, Aban, Punj Lloyd, IVRCL Infra, Roltas, Zee, Nagar Const, BRFL & TVS Motors.
 Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,122.80. Down by 105.30 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 827.50. Down by 12.74 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,465.49. Down by 41.58 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.13/16 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 49.11/13.

 

FMCG INDEX Stocks May Fall

 

	2713.80	( 0.28 %)	7.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		2765.57	2824.98	2862.67
Support		2668.47	2630.78	2571.37

	8813.84		( 0.39 %)	34.67
			1	2	3
Resistance			8975.34	9171.52	9291.72
Support			8658.96	8538.76	8342.58

 

 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	22-Jan-2009	1232.91	1537.36	-304.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	22-Jan-2009	671.53	667.57	3.96

 

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 22nd Jan 09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
HDFC Ltd. reported Q3'09 results, total revenue increased 35.74% yoy to Rs. 29.25 bn, but net profit declined 15.73% yoy to Rs. 5.47 bn. (BS)
Tata Communication has bought another 30% stake in South African network operator, Neotel, to increase its shareholding in the Company to 70%. (BS)
Tata Communication has bought another 30% stake in South African network operator, Neotel, to increase its shareholding in the Company to 70%. (BS)

Economic and Political Headline
The government has told public sector banks to extend credit to fund-starved Indian industry, especially exporters and small and medium sector enterprises. (ET)
The UK government data revealed that the unemployment rose 77,900 to 1.16 mn, the highest level since January 2000, as the worsening recession prompted retailers and automakers to cut jobs. (Bloomberg)
The US President Barack Obama's economic team is pushing to complete a bank-rescue plan that can be twinned with the USD 825 bn stimulus package being negotiated with Congress to alleviate the rapidly deepening financial crisis. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Neyveli Lig., Polaris, Balram Chini, HPCL, Ultra Cemco, BEL, BEML, GMR Infra, AL BK & BPCL.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Edu Comp, Roltas, Divi's Lab, Punj Llyod, DLF, Siemens, TVS Motors, Pantaloon, Rel Capital & Nagar Const.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2704 level, expect short covering up to 2743-2745 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2782-2784 zone by non-stop.
Support at 2682-2684 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 2676 level and thereafter slide may continue up to 2659 level by non-stop.
Buy if touches 2618-2620 zone. Stop Loss at 2579-2581 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2846-2848 zone it can zoom up to 2885-2887 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
Technically Profit booking should continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.
On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions too.

Trading Calls 22nd Jan 2009
+ve Sector : Max, Gokul, HMT, Alchem, GoldBees
-ve Sector : Midcap50

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading
Buy HUL-255 for 263-65 with sl 252
Buy Gail-205 for 213 with sl 202

+ve to Market : 1.US Market 2. SGX Nifty
-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed)

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,228.10. Up by 279.01 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 840.24. Up by 35.02 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,507.07. Up by 66.21 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 49.11/13 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Tuesday's close of 49.20/22.
NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR TODAY

	2706.15	( -3.23 %)	-90.45
		1	2	3
Resistance		2765.57	2824.98	2862.67
Support		2668.47	2630.78	2571.37

	8779.17		( -3.53 %)	-321.38
			1	2	3
Resistance			8975.34	9171.52	9291.72
Support			8658.96	8538.76	8342.58

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	21-Jan-2009	863.51	1650.13	-786.62

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	21-Jan-2009	927.22	644.49	282.73

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 21.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Reliance Capital reported Q3'09 results, total revenue increased 38.36% yoy to Rs. 15.7 bn, and net profit rose 13.34% yoy to Rs. 1.32 bn. (ET)
Hero Honda reported Q3'09 results, total revenue increased 4.63% yoy to Rs. 29.25 bn, and net profit rose 9.23% yoy to Rs. 3 bn. (BS)
NTPC and Coal India Limited have decided to sign an agreement to always maintain 75% fuel supply for the Company. (ET)

Economic and Political Headline
The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission has increased the Return on Equity (ROE) for the power companies to 15.5% from the existing 14%. It is applicable on projects from 2009 to 2014 and the ROE for projects completed on scheduled would be calculated at 16%. (ET)
The Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia has said that the government will not change the tax structure during the current fiscal, ending March 31, setting at rest speculation about the possibility of tax cuts to boost growth. (BS)
The UK inflation rate fell to 3.1% in December from a year earlier, compared with 4.1% in the previous month as tax cuts and the deepening recession eased price pressures across the economy. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak Futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Neyveli, Balram Chini, Polaris, Power Grid, HPCL, BEML, BEL, Ultra Cem, JP Hydro & BPCL.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Rolta, Pantaloon, DLF, TVS Motor, Siemens, Punj Llyod, Star, BRFL, IVRCL Infra & Unitech
Nifty is in Down Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Downtrend may continue up to 2753 level for time being.
Hurdle at 2785-2787 zone. Above this zone, expect short covering up to 2807-2809 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2827-2829 zone by non-stop.
Above 2874-2876 zone, it can zoom up to 2894-2896 zone and supply expected at arond this zone.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2731-2733 zone. Stop Loss at 2711-2713 zone.

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
False signal is likely. Technically downtrend should continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9872 level on upper side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 8947 level for your long positions too.

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 7,949.09. Down by 332.13 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 805.22. Down by 44.90 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,440.86. Down by 88.47 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.20/22 per dollar on yesterday, lower than Monday's close of 48.70/71.

Book Profits in POWER INDEX Stocks

Trading Calls 21st Jan 2009

-ve Sector : Bank, Oil&Ref,

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Trading Calls 21st Jan 2009

-ve Sector : Bank, Oil&Ref,

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Short Reliance-1183 for 1150 with sl 1188

Short HUL-246 for 233 with sl 250

Short Maruthi-559 for 534 with sl 565

Short M&M-299 for 279 with sl 303

BUY CESC-244 @ 235 for 251 with sl 230

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market tmble 8. SGX nifty 9. US Market 10.

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2796.60	( -1.74 %)	-49.60
		1	2	3
Resistance		2840.33	2884.07	2925.23
Support		2755.43	2714.27	2670.53

	9100.55		( -2.45 %)	-229.02
			1	2	3
Resistance			9162.36	9224.16	9288.57
Support			9036.15	8971.74	8909.94

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381