Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Andhra Bank, BPCL, Sterlin Bio, IOC, TTML, Kesoram Ind, Hind Perto, TCS, Glaxo & Hero Honda.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Wel Guj, Tulip, IVR Prime, Jetairways, Suzlon, Bhushan Steel, Uni Phos, Havells, Ansal Infra, Purva & Unitech.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
FII DATA
FII
28/11: 168.54 Cr. (Prov)
DII
28/11: 621.24 Cr. (Prov
Index Outlook
Sensex (9092.7) Even as the battle raged on to free hostages from multiple locations in Mumbai, Indian stock markets functioned with remarkable calm, sending the message that such inhuman acts cannot browbeat financial markets. Sensex ended 66 points higher on Friday. Massive rate cut by China and the Citigroup bailout kept the rest of the global markets cheerful.
In a show of solidarity, foreign institutional investors were net buyers in cash on Friday. They have, however, been net sellers to the tune of $644 million in November. The mid- and small-cap stocks are continuing to reel under selling pressure. BSE Midcap index closed at the lowest level since it was formed in 2005. This index is down 72 per cent from its life high. The small cap index has received a deeper cut of 77 per cent from its January peak.
Sensex moved in an extremely narrow band between 8600 and 9200 last week. The fact that it was the expiry week for the November contracts in the derivative segment could have been partly responsible for this sideways move. Investor apathy in the face of a continued barrage of negative news from the economy and from overseas too appears to have sent most investors to the sidelines.
The medium term trend in the Sensex is sideways since the October 27 trough. The third leg of this move could have commenced from the November 20 trough at 8316. Positive divergences in the daily oscillators support the view that the index can rally higher to 10323 or 11560 as this third leg of the correction unfolds.
But key medium term resistance is present between 11000 and 11500. The medium term view will turn positive only on a close above this zone. Another downward reversal from here will make the index move between 8000 and 11000 for a few more months.
The near -term view is turning mildly positive. Sensex can rally higher to 9340 or 10000 in the near term. Failure to surpass 10000 would be a sign that the down-move would resume to pull it lower towards 8300 once again. Next support is at 7697.
Nifty (2755.1)
Nifty moved in a range between 2650 and 2800 last week. This sideways movement has kept the short- and medium- term outlook unchanged. The third leg upward move from October 27 can take the Nifty higher to 3112 or even 3490. However a weekly close above 3400 is needed to make the medium-term view positive. Else, the sideways move between 2500 and 3500 will continue for a few more months.
The short-term view on the index is positive. A move higher to 2872 or 2960 is possible next week. But reversal from either of these levels will mean an imminent decline to 2500 or 2252 again.
Global Cues Global markets pulled back last week on bargain hunting. CBOE volatility index eased to 55 as investors' fears receded with the recovery in stock prices. Most indices recorded over 10 per cent gains. But it needs to be remembered that all the global markets are moving sideways in a lower range since October 27. None of them are in a medium term up trend yet.
Dow Jones Industrial Average pulled higher in the initial part of the week. The important resistance is between 9300 and 9600 in this index. Another reversal from here will result in the current range bound move (between 8000 and 9500) continuing for a few more weeks. S&P 500 too recovered strongly. A rally all the way to 980 or 1000 is possible in this index.
Commodity prices perked up too. CRB index closed the week with a 5 per cent gain. Agri-commodities such as cocoa, cotton and coffee were among the prominent gainers.
But the decline over the last three months has inflicted such a damage that the index needs to close above 410 to mitigate the bearish outlook. —
Maruti Suzuki
Maruti Udyog Limited closed the week on a flat note after fluctuating between Rs 490 and Rs 550 over the week.
A short-term trough appears to have been formed at Rs 468 and this up-trend can continue to take the stock higher to Rs 580 again.
Short-term traders should watch out for a downward reversal from this level. If this level is surpassed, the next targets are Rs 611 and Rs 635.
The medium term view for MUL remains neutral.
The stock has key long-term support at Rs 560 and it has been vacillating around this level over the last five weeks.
An upward reversal from here can take the stock higher to Rs 750 again.
Reliance Industries
Reliance Industries Limited reversed below the resistance at Rs 1,200 and moved sideways between Rs 1,050 and Rs 1,200 thereafter.
The short-term trend in the stock continues to be down. But it can move higher to Rs 1,200 or Rs 1,320 in the near term.
Rally beyond the second resistance is needed to make the short-term view positive.
Our medium term view for Reliance is neutral. The stock can move sideways between Rs 950 and Rs 1,500 for a few weeks.
The third leg of the correction since the October 27 trough could have commenced at the Rs 1,021 trough. As per this count, the stock can rally to Rs 1,370 or Rs 1,500 again.
Infosys
Infosys closed the week with a mild 4 per cent gain. A morning star candlestick pattern is being formed in the weekly chart that signals a short term reversal.
The third part of the correction from the October 16 trough can take Infosys higher to Rs 1,340 or Rs 1,450 in the near term.
Supports for the week ahead would be available at Rs 1,100 and then Rs 1,040.
We retain the neutral medium term view for this stock. The sideways move between Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,400 appears to be a base-building effort by the stock.
Support below is at Rs 950. Investors with a long term perspective can buy selectively close to Rs 1,000.
SBI
State Bank of India was unable to gather the momentum to move past Rs 1,245 and slid lower towards Rs 1,000 instead.
The stock can slide once more to Rs 990.
But short term traders should watch out for a rebound from the support around Rs 1,000.
Resistances for the week would be at Rs 1,246 and then Rs 1,375. Fresh investment purchases are recommended only on a close above Rs 1,375.
The medium term range for the stock is between Rs 1,000 and Rs 1,600.
Since it is close to the lower boundary of this range, swing traders can by with a stop at Rs 950 with the target of Rs 1,400 or Rs 1,600.
Tata Steel
Tata Steel stock moved in an extremely narrow band between Rs 145 and Rs 165 in the four trading sessions last week.
Short-term view on this stock remains negative. A decline to Rs 136 or Rs 100 is possible in the near term.
However, fresh shorts should be initiated only on a decline below Rs 145. Resistance in the week ahead would be at Rs 190 and then Rs 212.
The medium term view on the stock is also negative. But a recovery from Rs 150 can cause a range bound move between Rs 150 and Rs 250 for a few more weeks.
Conversely, a close below Rs 136 will drag the stock to double-digits.
ONGC
Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited too meandered sideways retaining the positive short term outlook.
A short-term trough appears to have been formed at Rs 615 and this move can extend to Rs 740 or Rs 812.
Fresh longs can be initiated once the stock moves past the first resistance. Supports will be at Rs 615 and Rs 598.
The third part of the corrective wave since the October 27 trough appears to be in motion now.
The formation of a higher bottom is a positive.
The target for this wave is Rs 810 and then Rs 890. Key medium term resistance is between Rs 800 and Rs 900.
NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR 1st Dec 2008
 | 2755.10 | ( 0.10 %) | 2.85 |  |
| | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Resistance | 2792.63 | 2830.17 | 2881.33 |
| Support | 2703.93 | 2652.77 | 2615.23 |
 | 9092.72 | ( 0.73 %) | 66.00 | |
| | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Resistance | 9203.83 | 9314.95 | 9472.27 |
| Support | 8935.39 | 8778.07 | 8666.95 |
--
Arvind Parekh
INDIABULLS
