FII DATA
FII
06/10: -1169.33 Cr. (Prov)
DII
06/10: 661.00 Cr. (Prov)
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Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures:
BPCL, TVS Motors, HPCL, Hero Honda, Lupin, UBI, Hindustan Uni, PNB, Mosear Bear & Indian Bk.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Rajesh Ex., 3I infotech, Praj Inndustr, NIIT, Aptech Training, HDCL, Sterlite Tech, JSW Steel, S Kumar & LT.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
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NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3573.45-3575.45 zone. Rallies up to 3656.85 can be used to sell. SL at 3716.30 level
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3632.85-3634.85 zone. Rallies up to 3686.60 can be used to sell. SL at 3716.30 level.
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 6TH OCT 2008
GM!!!! "Optimism is The One Quality More Associated With Success And Happiness Than Any Other."
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O) Selling may continue up to 3813 level for time being.
Hurdles at 3849 & 3863 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 3907-3909 zone.
Sell if touches 3952-3954 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can placed at around 4026-4028 zone.
On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 3767-3769 zone then downtrend may continue. Short-Term Investors:
Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on Rallies.
Short-Term Upward Target at 4071-4073 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3722-3724 zone.
JINDAL STEEL POW (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall. Technically it should go down.
If breaks & sustains at below 953 level then downtrend may continue and have caution.
Hurdle at 1164 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
TATA STEEL FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall. Technically it should go down.
If breaks & sustains at below 366 level then downtrend may start and have caution.
Hurdle at 420 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,325.38. Down by 157.47 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,099.23. Down by 15.05 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,947.39. Down by 29.33 points.
The partially convertible rupee
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Sell HEALTHCARE Stocks
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Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Unitech has been allotted start-up radio waves or spectrum for rolling out its services in Bihar circle. (ET)
Aban Offshore has secured a contract worth USD 241 mn in Malaysia for deployment of rig deep driller. (BS)
Consolidated Construction Consortium has got a contract worth Rs. 12.12 bn for the Chennai airport project in tie-up with Herve Pomerleau Internation Inc of Canada. (ET)
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Economic and Political Headline
India´s imports of sensitive items during the first four months of the current fiscal went up by 11.2% to Rs. 9,696 cr compared with the same period last year. (ET)
Inflation for the week ended September 20 moved down to 11.99%, following a drop in prices of primary articles. (BS)
The US President George W. Bush signed a USD 700 bn financial-market rescue plan into law. (Bloomberg)-- Arvind Parekh+ 91 98432 32381
03/10: -1662.26 Cr. (Prov)
DII
03/10: 56.75 Cr. (Prov)
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Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong
Futures: Bpcl, Tvs motor, hero Honda, Lupin, Hind petro, Hin uni lvr, Acc, Boi, Hdfc & Sun Pharma.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Kpit, sobha, Hdil, Rajesh Exports, Niit, Skumar, Jsw steel, Aptech training & Bajaj Hind.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
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Index Outlook
It was a nightmarish start to last week with the House of Representatives rejecting the bailout package and the credit crisis claiming a string of victims in Europe. Equities struggled to their feet mid-week, as the package was tweaked to placate the dissenting members and was finally passed.
However, resumption of the decline on Friday reflects the skepticism regarding the execution of this plan and its ability to stem the turmoil that is assuming gargantuan proportion.
It was a one-day-up-one-day-down kind of a week with the Sensex first plunging to a two-year low at 12153 only to recover sharply, leading optimists to hope that a bottom was finally in place.
But Friday's sell-off dashed these hopes as the index closed at the lowest level this year.
Volumes were low, especially in the derivatives segment. Low open interest in futures and options indicates that traders too have grown wary at these levels.
Sensex has ended the week on a shaky note, thanks to the 529 points cut on Friday. The evening star in the daily candlestick chart denotes a temporary peak at 13203. The succession of lower peaks and troughs since August 12, the foray below 12500 last week and the weekly close at this threshold compound to make the medium-term view negative.
If we consider the targets of the wave from 15579-peak, they are 12354 and then 11200. A decline to the second target remains a possibility as long as the Sensex remains below 14295.
A close above 14295, where the 50-day moving average is also positioned, is needed to allay fears of a decline below 12000.
The short-term trend in the Sensex is also down. A decline to 12135 or 11925 is possible in the near-term. Short-term traders can expect psychological support around the 12000 mark. Conversely, close below this level will exacerbate the bearish sentiment. Key resistances for the week would be at 13200 and then 13500. Failure to rally beyond 13500 will imply weakness ahead.
The Sensex is currently poised at an important juncture. A significant trough is possible in the zone between 12000 and 12500. But breach of the floor of this band can lead to sharp erosion in stock prices. The movement of this index over the next two weeks would be key to determining the long-term road-map.
Nifty (3818.3)
Nifty recorded an intra-week low at 3715 on Tuesday. But there was a sharp rebound from here and the index closed the week within our medium-term range between 3800 and 4500.
Technical indicators, however, signal that this support could be breached in the short-term and the index could decline to 3715 or 3636 in the week ahead. Failure to move above 4070 in the early part of the week will fortify this assumption.
The medium-term view too is currently negative and the target of the move from 4649 gives us the downward targets at 3778 and then 3454. If the down move continues next week, the second target would be in reckoning.
Global CuesPanic gripped investors across the globe as most indices recorded multi-year lows last week. CBOE VIX, the investor's fear gauge, recorded a six-year peak at 48.4.
Commodities could do no better last week. CRB index, that tracks the movement of a basket of commodities, was down almost 12 per cent, belying our expectation of a rally in this asset class. Strength in the US dollar added to the pressure on commodity prices. The dollar index on ICE gained a stellar 4.5 per cent after rebounding from the support at 76.
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved conclusively below the support at 10700 last week. A decline to 10200 and finally to 9900 is now possible for this index. The S&P 500 likewise shattered the support at 1170 and is now headed towards the support band between 1060 and 1070.
Asian equities turned in a better performance than their European and Latin American counterparts.
------------------------------Infosys
Infosys achieved our near-term target of Rs 1,301 and reversed on Wednesday. As explained earlier, 50 per cent retracement of the structural up-trend from April 2003 is at Rs 1,376. The on-going correction can halt at this level. But a decline below Rs 1,300 will drag the stock towards 61.8 per cent retracement level that is at Rs 1,212 or even lower to Rs 1,125. Weekly oscillators are portending a decline below Rs 1,300 in the medium-term. Investors should hold the stock with a stop at Rs 1,110.
Supports for the week would be at Rs 1,300 and then Rs 1,212. Resistances would be encountered at Rs 1,500 and then Rs 1,610. Fresh longs should be initiated only if the stock records a firm close above Rs 1,500.
--------------------Tata Steel
It was a deep 14 per cent cut for Tata Steel last week and the stock moved close to the long-term support band between Rs 370 and Rs 390 indicated in our previous column. The down trend that commenced last November can halt in this band and form a significant trough. However, there are no signs of reversal in the charts yet. If this level is breached, the next support is at Rs 290. Investors can wait for the stock to move beyond Rs 500 before adding to their holding.
Immediate downward target for the stock is at Rs 372 and then Rs 333. Fresh shorts are, however, recommended only on a close below Rs 370. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 460 and then Rs 510.
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Reliance Infra
The short-term trend in Reliance Infrastructure turned overtly negative with the strong penetration on the support at Rs 840. As explained earlier, a re-test of the previous trough at Rs 660 becomes imminent now. The medium-term trend in the stock is however sideways and the stock is moving between Rs 660 and Rs 1,100 in what appears to be a base-building effort. A breach of the Rs 660 support will bring the next long-term support at Rs 480 into reckoning.
Immediate supports are present at Rs 660 and then Rs 590 Resistances would be encountered at Rs 880 and then Rs 980. Traders can initiate fresh longs if the stock moves firmly above the second resistance.
-------------------------SBI
SBI continued to surprise with its resilience. Despite brief incursions below the short-term support at Rs 1,400, the stock managed to close above this level on all four days. A move higher towards Rs 1,565 or Rs 1,620 is possible in the near-term. But the presence of strong resistance at these levels makes it necessary for traders to tread with care till the stock moves firmly above the second resistance.
The medium-term trend in the stock is up since the Rs 1,007-trough. The current move between Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,600 can be followed by an upward break-out to Rs 1,700 or Rs 1,850. The medium-term view will turn negative only on a close below Rs 1,250.
-------------------------Unitech
This stock recovered from the low formed at Rs 97.5 on Monday to spend the rest of the week in a narrow range between Rs 100 and Rs 120. The doji formation in the weekly candlesticks chart denotes status quo.
That is, the medium-term view remains negative.
If the stock declines below the psychological support at Rs 100, it will pave the way for a decline to Rs 96, Rs 78 or Rs 62.
A close above Rs 138 is needed to mitigate the bearish medium-term view.
Supports in the week ahead would be at Rs 106 and then Rs 98. Near-term resistances would be at Rs 134 and then Rs 145.
Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 95.
--------------Reliance
RIL declined below the short-term support at Rs 1,950 last Monday and recorded a trough at Rs 1781 thereafter. The bearish engulfing candle with a shaven head formed in the weekly chart implies that the down trend can continue to drag the stock lower to Rs 1,733 or Rs 1,660 over the medium-term. As explained earlier, the area around Rs 1,700 is a strong long-term support. If this level is breached, next support on the long-term chart is at Rs 1,338.
Downward targets for the week are at Rs 1,735 and then Rs 1,680. Fresh shorts are recommended only on an emphatic decline below Rs 1,765. Resistances for the week are at Rs 1,990 and then Rs 2,125.
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
