This is list of 10 strong futures:
Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Above 5270 level, expect short covering up to 5286 level by non-stop.
Support at 5236 level. Below this level, selling may continue up to 5221 level.
Buy if touches 5197 level. Stop Loss at 5185-5187 zone.
On Positive Side, cross above 5302 level can take it up to 5320-5322 zone by non-stop. If crosses & sustains this zone then uptrend may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. Stop Loss at 5155.00.
Up Side Target at 5339.00.
Equity:
DLF (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with positive bias.
If not breaking 386 level, then traders can buy. Above 394 & 398 levels, it can zoom up to 405 & 409 levels by non-stop.
On Negative Side, slip below 375 & 379 levels can create panic up to 371 level.
SIEMENS LTD (NSE Cash)
Sideways trend with positive bias.
If not breaking 625 level, then traders can buy. Above 637 level, it can zoom up to 645 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 654 level by non-stop.
Below 622 level, expect panic up to 614-616 zone and thereafter it can tumble up to 608 level by non-stop.
RANBAXY LABS (NSE Cash)
Explosive. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
Above 523 & 527 levels, it can zoom up to 532 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 534-536 zone by non-stop.
Support at 512 & 513 levels. Buy with a Stop Loss of 505 level.
SATYAM COMPUTER (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
UNITECH (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
HOUSING DEV & INFRA (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
RELIANCE CAPITAL (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
STC (I) (NSE Cash):
Explosive & will zoom.
MAYTAS INFRA (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
BGR ENERGY SYSTEMS (NSE Cash):
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
HDFC LTD (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
ICICI BANK (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
TCS (NSE Cash):
Fall may continue as per technicals.
INVESTMENT BUY:
MEDIA MATRIX (BSE Code:512267)
Will zoom up to 6.93-6.95 zone on (or) before 15.01.2010.
Stop Loss at 4.85 level.
BALRAMPUR CHINI (NSE Cash)
Will zoom up to 156.70-158.70 zone on (or) before 15.01.2010.
Stop Loss at 132.10 level.
OPTIONS (NSE): NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Sideways trend with Positive bias.
If does not break 79 level then traders can buy. Above 81 level, rally may continue
up to 88 level and thereafter expect a jump up to 92 level.
Below 76 level, expect unwinding up to 67-69 zone by non-stop.
TATA STEEL 640 PUT OPTION
Sideways trend with Negative bias.
If controlled below 21 level, then expect profit booking up to 16 level and thereafter it can
tumble up to 12 level by non-stop.
Above 21 level, expect short covering up to 25 level.
STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
ABB FUTURES
Explosive. Stop Loss is too far on down side.
Above 804 level, it can zoom up to 815 & 823 levels and thereafter expect a jump up to 834-836 zone by non-stop.
Support at 785 & 788 levels. Keep a Stop Loss at 777 level.
BOSCH FUTURES:
No trigger as per my calculations. Bulls will get trapped at higher levels.
MOSER-BAER (I) FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
K S OILS FUTURES:
Explosive & will zoom.
ADITYA BIRLA NUVO FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
DENA BANK FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
ESSAR OIL FUTURES:
Fall may continue as per technicals.
SPOT LEVELS
 | 5244.75 | ( -0.35 %) | -18.35 |  |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Resistance | 5269.43 | 5294.12 | 5311.48 | |
| Support | 5227.38 | 5210.02 | 5185.33 | |
 | 17540.29 | ( -0.43 %) | -75.43 | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Resistance | 17629.29 | 17718.28 | 17778.45 | ||
| Support | 17480.13 | 17419.96 | 17330.97 | ||
Index Outlook: Small-caps in the limelight
Despite Sensex recording a 22-month high last week, the mood among market participants can be best described as indifferent, the longer sessions probably contributing to the boredom.
This state is likely to change as a news-heavy week rolls out next with earnings, inflation and industrial production numbers vying for investors' attention.
The listlessness was confined to large-cap stocks even as the small and mid-cap stocks blazed ahead last week. The kind of stocks that surged higher should however set alarm bells jingling in the minds of investors.
FIIs have been reaffirming their faith in Indian equities by being net buyers in all the sessions since the beginning of this year.
Traders are also gung-ho and open interest on the NSE is creeping close to Rs 1 lakh crore.
The Sensex almost attained our medium-term target of 17,800 before declining slightly to end the week with mild 75 point gain. Daily oscillators that were attempting to break out of the neutral region in the first half of the week are slipping lower again. Weekly oscillators are in a minor uptrend that needs to sustain for a week more before it can be taken seriously.
The medium-term outlook for the index remains positive and the decline recorded last week is not deep enough to reverse this trend.
However as we have been reiterating, extrapolation of the move from March, July or November 2009 lows gives us a cluster of targets in the zone between 17,800 and 18,500. A strong move beyond 18,500 is needed to signal a rally towards the former high. Else an intermediate term peak can be formed in this zone.
The Sensex is currently halting at its near-term support of 17,500. If this level sustains in the first half of next week, the index can make one more attempt to rally higher to 17,800, 17,980 or 18,274.
Decline below 17,500 will imply that the index is headed towards the next support at 17,320. Traders can continue to buy in declines as long as the index holds above 17,320. Investors should consider booking some profits especially in fundamentally weak stocks that are surging ahead on speculative interest.
Nifty rose to an intra-week peak of 5,310 before launching in to a mild decline.
The short-term trend in the index however continues to be positive and the key support to watch out for is 5,217. If the index holds this level, it can attempt another rally to 5,327 or 5,385.
But a decline below 5,200 will drag the index to 5,160 or even 5,080. Fresh longs should be avoided on a close below 5,160. The medium-term trend in the index also continues to be positive but investors ought to stay wary at these levels because of the confluence of targets in the zone between 5,300 and 5,400 that can trigger a medium or even intermediate-term reversal.
A weekly close below 4,950 is however the first requisite to signal the onset of a medium-term decline.
Global Cues
It was a cheerful start to 2010 in global equity markets with most benchmarks closing the week with gains.
Some of the Latin American indices such as Brazil's Bovespa, Chile's IPSA and Argentina's Merval recorded fresh 52-week highs.
Similar break-outs were seen in the European indices and some of the Asian benchmarks. CBOE Volatility Index closed at a 19-month low below the psychological 20-mark reflecting the confident mood among investors.
The Dow was relatively circumspect and meandered sideways after the surge on Monday.
This index can attempt to rise to 10,759 or 10,870 once it moves strongly beyond 10,600.
It needs to close below 10,400 to roil the near-term positive view.
Commodities have begun the year with a flourish and Reuters CRB Index spiked 4 per cent higher.
Key resistance for this index is at 517 that is 2 per cent away.
RIL began the first week of 2010 on a positive note by rallying to the intra-week peak of Rs 1,115. As indicated last week, the near-term trend in this stock stays up and it can move on to Rs 1,126 or Rs 1,164 in the days ahead. Traders can hold their long positions with a stop at Rs 1,050. Subsequent supports are Rs 1,027 and Rs 990.
The medium-term trend in the stock is sideways between Rs 850 and Rs 1,200. Targets of the up-move from November low are Rs 1,119 and Rs 1,200. Since the stock almost achieved the first target last week, caution is warranted from a medium-term perspective.
State Bank of India (Rs 2,287)
The mild up-move in the first half of the week could not sustain and SBI ended marginally in the green. We continue to advise caution since the stock is nearing the key short-term resistance zone between Rs 2,350 and Rs 2,400. Reversal from here can drag it down to Rs 2,250 or Rs 2,204. On the other hand, a strong move above Rs 2,400 will give the next medium-term target at Rs 2,500.
We retain a neutral view for the medium term as the stock is moving in a range between Rs 2,050 and Rs 2,500. However, failure to move beyond Rs 2,400 will put the medium-term trend at risk of reversing lower.
Tata Steel (Rs 650.2)
Tata Steel moved in line with our expectation and achieved the first short-term target of Rs 660. If the stock continues to move higher, it can reach Rs 693 in the short-term. Supports for the week are at Rs 616 and Rs 587. Traders can continue to hold long positions with a stop at Rs 615.
Medium-term trend in the stock continues to be very strong. But the stock faces key resistance around Rs 660 that is also the 61.8 per cent retracement of the stock's slide from November 2007. Investors ought to wait for a strong weekly close above this level before adding to their holding.
Infosys (Rs 2,464.5)
Infosys did a volte-face from the intra-week peak of Rs 2,629 that is very close to our medium-term target of Rs 2,637. The sharp decline in the second part of the week has resulted in a weekly loss of Rs 141 and an evening star formation in the weekly chart.
This is a top reversal pattern, but we will wait to observe the action over the next two weeks before concluding that the medium-term trend has reversed.
A weekly close below Rs 2,400 is needed to confirm a medium-term trend reversal.
The short-term trend in the stock is down.
It can attempt to rally higher to Rs 2,528 or Rs 2,567 in the near-term. Inability to move beyond the first target would be the cue for traders to initiate fresh shorts with a stop at Rs 2,540.
ONGC (Rs 1,216.6)
ONGC closed the week with a small up-tick but it remains in the range between Rs 1,150 and Rs 1,230. Traders holding long positions can continue to do so with a stop at Rs 1,185.
Next support would be at Rs 1,155. Short-term target for the stock is Rs 1,270. Move beyond this level would take the stock to its previous peak of Rs 1,386.
Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,432.8)
Maruti was another pivotal that cracked sharply last week, ending 8 per cent lower. The stock appears headed for the lower end of its medium-term trading range at Rs 1,350. If this level is breached, next medium term target is Rs 1,250.
Resistances for the week ahead are at Rs 1,514 and Rs 1,570. Failure to penetrate the first resistance would imply that the downtrend will prolong.
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 08-Jan-2010 | 3240.2 | 3170.82 | 69.38 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 08-Jan-2010 | 1624.46 | 1441.59 | 182.87 |
Crude @ 100/bbl By May 2010! Buy Cairn, Oil India And RIL
Oil supplies the world was counting on are disappearing from the markets at an alarming rate. Three consecutive estimates by different sources show that the world's oil production is going to be much lower than anyone expected.
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You should know that as recently as 2005, the IEA forecast global oil production of 120 mbpd in 2030. This year's projected figure is 12.5% lower. I'll show you why global oil production is falling at alarming rates later. But the truth is, the IEA's production forecast is wildly optimistic (and possibly delusional). Things may be much worse than the IEA is willing to admit.
London's Guardian newspaper reports that an IEA whistleblower believes the current production figures are inflated. The whistleblower says the agency is, 'deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying'.
The paper quotes the anonymous IEA source as saying:
"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further."According to the IEA insider, the official figures over-estimate future oil production by 25%!
But even THAT leaked figure from the inside could be optimistic.
Days after the whistleblower story was published, the 95 mbpd figure quoted by the IEA was disputed by a Swedish Physicist. Kjell Aleklett, a professor of physics at Uppsala University in Sweden, says that the IEA report is 'unrealistic'. He says that by 2030, the world will most likely be producing 75 million barrels of oil per day.
You read that right.
That's eight million barrels less per day than the world is producing today -TWENTY-ONE YEARS FROM NOW!
It's a full 10% decline in world oil production from current levels. And it's an astonishing 37.5% decline from the production levels the IEA expected just three years ago!
To be honest, I can't say I'm surprised. For reasons you'll see later, the pie-in-the-sky projections of 120 million barrels of production per day were NEVER realistic.
a new and devastating oil crisis
And it will benefit clever investors - for years to come.
Once the investing public firmly digests what these numbers mean, another oil panic could set in. Don't be in doubt. Signs of the huge oil supply crunch have been building ever since the Global Financial Crisis took a sledgehammer to the oil industry in 2008. All over the world, oil companies have been slashing exploration budgets and slashing jobs (and slashing future oil production too).
- Houston's energy economy has been hammered by the recession, with more than 18,000 jobs lost in past months, the Houston Chronicle reported on 6 November 2009.
- In October 2009, Shell said by year end it would cut 5,000 employees or 10% of its global workforce. BP, meanwhile, has cut more than 5,000 jobs worldwide. Major oil field services firms like Schlumberger and Halliburton have eliminated thousands more jobs this year.
- Smaller drillers and exploration companies are downsizing massively or postponing projects. Nabors Drilling have fired 150... Canadian oil and gas supplies company Tenaris Prudential has just temporarily laid off 400 workers... French oil company Total's CEO recently warned that at even $60 oil, 'a lot of new projects would be delayed'.
'So what?' you might ask.
'These guys made a killing at our expense when oil was over $100. It's about time Big Oil felt some pain. And besides, isn't the oil price recovering?'
Yes, it is.
But here's my point: the oil price crash of 2008 wiped out trillions of dollars of expected investment in new oil projects. It virtually guaranteed a future supply shortage. And because people use more oil when it's cheap - the oil price crash actually accelerated global demand for oil, while dealing a crippling blow to future supply.
We are racing to an oil reckoning day. But that's just the first warning sign of what's to come...
from an energy point of view...'
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Take the latest in a line of oil supply crunch warnings...
It was released in October 2009 by the nongovernmental organisation, Global Witness. I know the group sounds a little kooky. And believe me, I don't agree with everything they have to say. But it's hard to argue with their oil numbers. Their science is sound.
The report, Heads in the Sand, says that between 2005 and 2008 global oil production ceased to grow. That's in spite of widespread investment and rising prices. Then, as we've covered, investment fell off a cliff when the oil price dropped.
'There is a train crash about to happen from an energy point of view. But politicians everywhere seem to have entirely missed the scale of the problem,' said the report's author, Simon Taylor. 'We are all addicted to oil but if you look at the mathematics of the problem, they simply don't add up in terms of future supply and demand.'
To be fair, even the IEA is warning of extreme volatility in the oil price in 2010. But Global Witness reckons the IEA is not taking the looming supply crunch seriously enough. It reckons the $450 bn a year the IEA is asking the oil industry to spend chasing new energy supplies is a waste.
Why?
Because those new supplies are not there. Instead, the report argues, the money would be better invested in moving rapidly to a post-oil world of renewable energy and conservation.
Big Oil spending money to create a post-oil world?
That seems unlikely to happen anytime soon. For the record, the oil probably IS there. The 'Long Aftershock' doesn't mean the world is running out of oil. It just means the world is running out of oil that is easy to find, cheap to produce - and here's the kicker - exists in very large quantities.
This is all pretty gloomy stuff. But there's an upside... if you're a private investor who can think ahead of the pack...
of Cheap Crude
There are four key issues facing the oil market from now and forever more: declining output, declining new discoveries, increasing demand and insufficient projects in the pipeline.
This has been the case for many years.
But it's apparent that this current global recession could be the 'tipping point' for crude.
Whether there's economic recovery soon or not, the damage to global oil supplies is done... and it's going to create triple-digit oil prices again in 2010.
And this could create triple-digit gains for farsighted investors who act NOW, as you'll see in a moment.
The confidential research paper I was telling you about earlier calls this impending spike the 'Long Aftershock'. This report was released - at high cost and to a select group of oil industry insiders - by a group called the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).
CERA is a leading advisor to international energy companies, governments, financial institutions and technology providers. Their critical analysis on energy markets, geopolitics and strategy are designed to create an 'early warning system' for energy powerbrokers and investment houses.
In short, when these guys make a call on the oil markets, you listen.
Here's what the research paper told those in the upper echelons of energy, industry and investment...
'CERA estimates that 52% of the potential net growth in liquids production capacity from 2009 to 2014 is at risk of deferment or cancellation because of poor project economics or investor cash flow difficulties. This represents about 7.6 million barrels per day (mbpd) out of total potential future net growth of 14.5 mbpd from 2009 to 2014.'You read right...
CERA says that production will grow by just 7.5 million bpd over the next five years. That's down from the 14.5 million bpd increase it predicted last summer.
According to the research group, as demand recovers throughout that span, production will struggle to keep up and a new oil bull market, similar to the one seen in 2008 will begin.
Take a look at the chart below...
Historically, the countries that produced a lot of oil - Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Iran, Mexico and Venezuela - haven't used much of the stuff.
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As these countries have moved into the 21st century, so have their oil needs.
The chart above shows that net oil exports from the world's top 20 exporting countries have been trending downwards since mid-2005.
Think about it...
These producers have seen the writing on the wall. They figure in a world where oil is getting harder to come by, it may just be a good idea to hold onto your reserves instead of selling it. And more and more of them simply need the oil themselves now.
And get this...
A recent independent study produced a 'middle case' scenario - one in which exports from the world's top five oil exporters decline by 6.2% by 2015.
That's a decline equivalent to one quarter of the world's internationally traded oil over the next six years.
So what does that mean for YOU?
That brings me to the next chart I want to show you...
By now you realise this is a truly global problem.
of Cheap Australian Oil
Source: Australian Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, Peak Oil
and Australia's National Infrastructure, Submission to Infrastructure Australia
Far more countries will be hit by the coming 'Long Aftershock' than by the global financial crisis.
But let me bring this close to home for you...
Australia's domestic oil production peaked back in 2000. It will never recover. We are already 50% dependent on oil imports. As you can see from the chart above, we're going to be TWOTHIRDS dependent by 2015.
Just to make this clear for you...
In the next six years, there will be:
- 52% less growth in oil production than was predicted this time last year
- 25% LESS oil on the global export market...
- And in this time, Australia's dependence on foreign oil will INCREASE from half to two-thirds!
We're facing another completely foreseeable catastrophe. A 'swift and violent' oil price spike, according to Goldman Sachs, that will be the killer blow to many global economies, companies and investors.
You Amid the Coming Oil Chaos
As an investor, there is no story as simultaneously disturbing and exciting as the impending energy crisis.
No one knows exactly how this story will pan out.
One way to look at the looming oil scarcity is as a desert that the civilised world must trek across. What we cannot know for certain is how long the journey will take or the highest temperatures we will need to endure along the way. While I don't have a firm stance on those questions, I am confident that we'll make it to the other side.
And I'm even more confident that a minority of investors will make a KILLING in the process.
Pretty soon, a 'Long Aftershock' will assert itself in the oil market... sending oil back to triple figures not in years... but months or even weeks.And you know what?
Not just another rally above $100. But a permanent, sustained new crisis that will make the petro-busts of the 1970s... even the last two years... look small in comparison.
Hey, I realise there's no shortage of bad news at the moment. You're probably sick to the backteeth of doom and gloom.
But that's the problem: everyone's focusing on recovering from the credit crisis... and meanwhile an even bigger calamity is creeping up behind them!
Thing is... right now, with the oil price still around 100% below its peak of $147 in June 2008... the looming supply problem is no longer an issue. Even as it quietly becomes more urgent.
As an investor, your opportunity is right there.
If you're savvy enough to see this now, you stand to make a great deal of money when the market wakes up and sees what's coming.
I'm not sure what all the fuss is about. The answer is obvious. Of course they are! Despite scant signs of economic recovery, everything is going up. Stocks, bonds, gold - it doesn't matter. Assets that shouldn't really be correlated are all heading up together.
All of this is happening because of cheap money from the printing presses.
How far will this new bubble go? Who knows? Until central banks decide that their paper money is worth defending... and not destroying.
But there's one thing you can know with absolute certainty. In the midst of this inflationary bubble, there's one asset alone whose quietly climbing price makes perfect sense - OIL. Even if the wider bubble pops - I fully expect crude to bust the $100 barrier and keep on rising.
The way you make money here is put some serious thought into which oil and energy companies: a) have the assets, projects and cash in the bank to survive in an environment where credit is hard to come by (you can call these companies 'cash boxes') and b) will be first in line to benefit most from a 'swift' and 'violent' oil price spike.
The glaringly obvious trade here is a play on mid-tier oil and exploration companies - many of which are still trading well off their 2008 highs.
In my view, it's not just the trade of 2010. It will be the trade of the next decade. Of course, it's still risky. Even well-funded companies with great projects and great management have seen lower share prices. Listen, from here on in the BIG money in oil will come from finds made in new or previously inaccessible areas.
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
