Market Outlook 1st April 2010

Today Market Update on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/morning-brief/morning-brief-01Apr2010.htm

 Derivatives EOD Report on http://www.indiabulls.com/securities/mailermis/derivative-strategy/derivative-EOD-31-Mar-2010.htm 

Corporate News Headline
•	Larsen & Toubro has bagged orders worth Rs.10.2 bn for construction related works. The company has secured a design and build order worth Rs. 5.66 bn from software firm Cognizant Technologies Solutions India for construction of their IT campus at Chennai. (BS)
•	Cairn India said its Rs. 50 bn domestic borrowing programme to fund oil fields development in Rajasthan has been assigned the highest grade by rating agency CARE. (BS)
•	Tata Motors has retired USD 345 mn debt by offering its foreign currency bondholders the option to convert earlier at a reduced conversion price. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
•	India's fiscal deficit shot up over 23% to Rs. 3.80 tn in the first eleven months of this fiscal mainly because of the overruns due to the stimulus measures taken by the government during the slowdown last year. (BS)
•	Business activity in the US expanded in March for a sixth straight month, a private report showed. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer fell to 58.8 from a February reading of 62.6 that was the highest since April 2005. (Bloomberg)
•	European inflation accelerated more than economists forecast on higher oil prices, while the unemployment rate reached double-digits for the first time since 1998. Consumer prices in the 16-nation euro region increased 1.5% in March from a year earlier, the European Union statistics office said. Unemployment rose to 10% in February, the highest rate since August 1998, a separate report showed. (Bloomberg)

SPOT INDEX LEVELS TODAY

	5249.10	( -0.25 %)	-13.35
		1	2	3
Resistance		5283.62	5318.13	5342.37
Support		5224.87	5200.63	5166.12

	17527.77		( -0.35 %)	-62.40
			1	2	3
Resistance			17655.33	17782.89	17866.28
Support			17444.38	17360.99	17233.43

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O): 
Below 5248 level, selling may continue up to 5239-5241 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 5237 level by non-stop.
Hurdles at 5272 & 5281 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 5300-5302 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 5312-5314 zone by non-stop.
Cross above 5319-5321 zone, can take it up to 5332-5334 zone by non-stop. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 5220-5222 zone. Stop Loss at 5207-5209 zone.

Short-Term Investors: 
Bullish Trend.
Up Side Target at 5429.95.
Stop Loss at 5106.55.

 

STOCK FUTURES (NSE):
NOIDATOLL FUTURES
Yesterday's fall was a surprise. But real selling too. Bears should not get panic at higher levels.

If selling continues, then it can tumble up to 30.00 level by non-stop.

If start recovers, then it can zoom up to 34.90 level and have caution.

 

BALRAMCHIN FUTURES (5 Days Holding)
Speculative selling on yesterday. Not worried too.
 
If selling continues, then it can tumble up to 86.60 level by non-stop.
If start recovers, then it can zoom up to 99.50 level and have caution.

 

OPTIONS (NSE):
NIFTY 5200 PUT OPTION
Speculative buying & not impressed too.
 
If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 115.25 level by non-stop.
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 50.25 level and have

caution.

 

ITC 260 PUT OPTION
Speculative buying on yesterday. Not impressed & Do not get excited too.
 

If rally continues, then it can zoom up to 6.80 level by non-stop.
If profit booking starts, then it can tumble up to 2.60 level and have

caution.

The year 2009-10 saw the Sensex rallying 80.54%
On March 31 2009, the benchmark index was at 9708.50 and it closed yesterday at 17527.77.

The year 2009-10 saw the Nifty rallying 73.75%

On March 31 2009, Nifty was at 3020.95 and it closed yesterday at 5249.10.

Equity:

KSK (NSE Cash):
Yesterday's rally was surprising & Real buying taken place. Bulls should not get panic at lower levels.

Target at 194.25. Stop Loss at 174.25.

 

SESAGOA (NSE Cash): 
Real buying taken place on yesterday. Bulls should not get panic at lower

levels.
Target at 491.00. Stop Loss at 458.90.

 

TCS (NSE Cash): 
Speculative selling taken place on yesterday. Do not get worried too. 
 If selling continues, then Target at 745.35. Stop Loss at 807.25.

 

SYNCOM (NSE Cash):
Real selling taken place on yesterday. Bears should not get panic

at higher levels.

If selling continues, then Target at 114.70. Stop Loss at 136.90 & that is the huge risk.

 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	31-Mar-2010	2778.13	2344.61	433.52

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	31-Mar-2010	1425.37	1781.95	-356.58

Rules:

Never risk more than 10% of your trading capital in a single trade. Always use stop loss orders.( Here you should know your loss you can give in a situation where the trade starts going against you.) Never do overtrading. Never let a profit run into a loss. Don't enter a trade if you are unsure of the trend. When in doubt, get out, and don't get in when in doubt. Only trade active markets. Distribute your risks equally among different markets. Never limit your orders. Trade at the markets. Extra monies from successful trades should be placed in a separate account. Never trade to scalp a profit. Never average a loss. Never get out of the market because you have lost patience, or get in because you are anxiously waiting. Avoid taking small profits and large losses. Never cancel a stop loss after you have placed it. Avoid getting in and out of the market too soon. Be willing to make money from both sides of the market. Never buy or sell just because the price is low or high. Never hedge a losing position. Never change your position without a good reason. Avoid trading after long periods of success or failure. Don't try to guess tops or bottoms. Don't follow a blind man's advice. Avoid getting in wrong and out wrong; or getting in right and out wrong. This is making a double mistake. When you lose don't blame it on luck.

Disclosure: I don't have any positions in the above said scrips & NIFTY FUTURES.

Disclaimer:

"I do not make any warranties, express or implied, as to results to be obtained from using the information in this e-letter.  Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making any investment decisions based upon information in this report."

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381