 | Technical Analysis |
|
Nifty gave a breakout of double bottom pattern, suggesting uptrend Last week, we had recommended that Nifty formed an "ascending triangle" and a breakout could be in upper side. During the week the breakout was witnessed in line with our expectation and Nifty wrapped the week on positive note to 6140 mark. After forming a Double bottom on daily chart, Nifty gave a break out with healthy volumes, which is a strong bullish signal. Resistance for Nifty now seems at 6,180-6,220 while support stand at 6,060-6,015. On upside, if level of 6,150 breached decisively then we could see rise up to the mark of 6,180-6,200. On downside, the first support will be at 6,060, followed by the 50-days Moving Average of 6,015 Technical indicators like MACD and RSI are also supporting its uptrend move. MACD is showing positive divergence, crossing its signal line (9 Days exponential moving average) from the below. Further, MACD is above the zero line, would set-up for a more long-term move upward if maintained. The RSI also looks strong at 62 with plenty of upside potential before any over-sold indications. 
|
 | Technical Picks |
|
WELCORP (BUY)
Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 169.55 | Target Price | 172/176/180 | Stop Loss | 165 | Support-Resistance | 160/190 |
Comment - RSI is at 39, trading in neutral territory, showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
- MACD has given a buy crossover indicating an uptrend.
- Expecting sharp upside if level of 175 breaches decisively.
- Stochastic is at 26 levels and it has given a buy crossover.
UBHOLDINGS (BUY)
Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 305.10 | Target Price | 308/312/318 | Stop Loss | 298 | Support-Resistance | 280/330 |
Comment - RSI is trading in neutral territory, currently at 65, showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
- Stochastic is hovering in neutral zone showing positive crossover suggesting upside.
- MACD is showing positive crossover.
- Stock already crossed 34 Day EWMA and expecting to rise further.
PUNJ LLOYD (BUY)
Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 111.85 | Target Price | 113/116/119 | Stop Loss | 108 | Support-Resistance | 100/125 |
Comment - RSI is at 54 likely to showing positive crossover indicating uptrend.
- Slow moving average 08 also showing downtrend and likely to cross fast moving average 34 line from above.
- MACD is showing bullish crossover.
- The stock has rebounded after undergoing a deep correction and has breached its resistance at 110 levels with good volumes indicating that it will move upwards from here
HINDCOPPER (SELL) Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 330.50 | Target Price | 327/322/318 | Stop Loss | 337 | Support-Resistance | 300/350 |
Comment. - RSI is in profit booking phase.
- Stochastic is moving in neutral territory likely to show negative crossover indicating downside.
- MACD is likely to show bearish crossover.
- The stock has been rising steeply over the past few sessions and the correction in it is long overdue.
|



 |
 | Indian Equity Market |
|
The Week Gone By
Indian Markets wrapped the week on a cheerful note as the benchmark indices surged amidst strong buying across sectors. The market started off the week on a weak note as rate hike by china dampened investor's sentiment. From mid of the week markets surged sharply as positive economic data from global markets led uptrend. However, holiday season led to tentative behaviour among foreign institutions. Looking Forward India's medium-term growth trajectory remains promising amid a still gloomy world outlook. The combined advance tax payment by top 100 corporate taxpayers rose 18.7% to Rs 27,531 crore in Q3 December 2010 over Q3 December 2009, indicating better corporate performance in the third quarter this year. The time is right to pick up fundamentally sound stocks which may have got beaten down along with their peers. Companies in sectors that are able to pass on their cost increases to consumers may enjoy greater stock market return. Further, Oil & gas, IT, capital goods and pharma were among the sectors that saw higher rollovers on the long side for January series. Mid-cap stocks among these saw the maximum rollovers in spite of a high roll-cost indicating optimism that they may outperform the Nifty in January. Nifty Top Gainers
Company | % Weekly Return | Suzlon | 6.52 | Hindustan Unilever | 6.07 | HDFC Bank | 5.77 |
Nifty Top Loser
Company | % Weekly Return | BPCL | (2.09) | SAIL | (1.24) | Idea | (0.93) |
| Daily Movement of Nifty
 Daily Movement of Sensex, Net FIIs & MF investment
 Source for FII & MF: Sebi Weekly return on BSE Sectoral Indices  |
Top |
 | Fundamental Picks |
|
McNally Bharat Engineering Company Ltd. (Buy) Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 222.10 | Target Price | 260 | Upside (%) | 17.06 | 52 Week H/L | 385/196.55 | Market Cap | 690 |
Solar Industries Ltd. (Buy) Particulars | Rs. | CMP | 558 | Target Price | 614 | Upside (%) | 11 | 52 Week H/L | 700.00 / 365.10 | Market Cap | 966 |
Weekly Price Movement of GDR Security Name | Price (USD) as on 30-12-10 | % change from 23-12-10 | L&T | 44.44 | 3.25 | RIL | 47.31 | 0.45 | SBI | 128.25 | 3.34 |
|
McNally Bharat Engineering Company Ltd. (MBECL) is engaged in providing turnkey solutions in the areas of Power, Steel, Aluminum, Material Handling, Mineral Beneficiation. Outlook for the company is robust with all its business areas being in the high growth path. Although the company is perating in low-margin business, its ability to shore up volumes and its potential aided by its order book provide reasonable earnings visibility. t's consolidated order book stood at Rs 4700 crore (2.5x FY2010 consolidated revenue) at the end of Q2FY10 led by power sector which lends high revenue visibility.
Solar Industries India is one of the largest Indian Explosive manufacturing company. During the quarter ended Sep'2010, Solar Industries India reported an increase of 28.46% in its revenue. During the quarter, the net profit surged by 235.26% to Rs.18.29 crore as against Rs 5.46 crore for the quarter ended September 30, 2009. The Company is well positioned and well capitalised to tap the opportunities and expand its business portfolio. Moreover, the Solar Group has a licensed & installed capacity of 1,75,000 MT of Explosives. At the CMP of Rs 568.00, the stock is trading at P/E multiple of 21.52x(based on TTM EPS), which seems attractive. We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also and therefore recommend buy with the target price of 625. Weekly Price Movement of ADR
Security Name | Price (USD) as on 30-12-10 | % change from 23-12-10 | ICICI bank | 50.33 | 1.25 | Infosys | 76.41 | 2.08 | MTNL | 2.41 | 0.42 |
|
Top |
 | Economy |
|
Indicators | Latest | Previous | Change | Investment Deposit Ratio (%) | 30.07 (Dec 17) | 30.64 (Dec 03) | 
| Credit Deposit Ratio (%) | 75.83 (Dec 17) | 74.30 (Dec 03) | 
| Money Supply (%) | 15.00 (Dec 17) | 15.30 (Dec 03) | 
| Bank Credit (%) | 23.70 (Dec 17) | 23.00 (Dec 03) |  | Aggregate Deposits (%) | 14.70 (Dec 17) | 15.00 (Dec 03) | 
| Forex Reserves USD bn | 295.03 (Dec 24) | 294.60 (Dec 17) | 
|
|
 | Global Equity Markets |
|
US markets were mixed during the week (till Thursday). Indices started the initial trading day on a lower note in reaction to a rate hike by China over the weekend. Moreover, trading volume remained low as most of the investors stayed away from their desks with the year winding down and amid a winter storm that continued to blast the northeast. Thereafter, the markets were flat after a volatile trading session as fall in US housing prices and weaker consumer confidence overshadowed a higher retail sales number. Finally, the Wall Street bourses ended marginally lower as investors booked profit after markets rose to two-year highs. Investors sold stocks despite reports on weekly jobless claims, Chicago-area manufacturing activity and pending-home sales came better than expected. Looking ahead, during the coming week investors are likely to focus on release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Asian stocks traded mostly lower during the week. In the beginning, the market traded lower on concerns over Chinese interest rate hike which raised worries about a possible drag on the country's economic growth. The strengthening of yen against other currencies also weighed on the market sentiment. Japanese finance minister reported to keep a close watch on rising yen and threatened to intervene in the currency market in case of excessive fluctuation in exchange rates. However, in the middle of the week, the markets traded positive as strength in the energy sector overpowered the weakness in exporters. The investor sentiment was uplifted on news that China lowered its export quota for rare earths. Markets ended modestly higher due to positive data in US and news regarding a rise in coal producers after Shanxi Xishan Coal & Electricity Power reported to increase prices of its products effective Saturday. European markets edged lower during the week. Market started the week on mixed note as investors refrained from changing their position in extremely thin volumes ahead of Christmas holiday. Further, markets remained subdued on fears of an interest rate hike announced by China over the weekend. In its continuing attempts to normalize monetary policy as the nation grapples with inflationary pressures and ample liquidity amid robust growth, the People's Bank of China announced Saturday that it is upwardly revising interest rates by 25 basis points. While, market did not get support from better than expected economic data. Later, markets finished lower after investors locked in profit as it was the last full trading day on European markets as London markets will close early on Friday for New Year's Eve and won't reopen until Tuesday. French markets will also close at midday Friday along with other Euronext markets. Volumes once again remained thin as investors have gone for the New Year's holiday. | Weekly return on major Global Indices
 Data of US and European markets taken from Dec 23 to Dec 30 2010 Data of Nikkei and SSE Composite indices taken from Dec 24 to Dec 30 2010 Hang Seng index closed at mid day
Weekly Change in the Composites of S&P 500 Industry | Adj. Mkt. Cap as on 30-12-10 | Adj. Mkt. Capas on 23-12-10 | % Change | Energy | 13,75,736 | 13,62,208 | 0.99 | Materials | 4,27,276 | 4,24,722 | 0.60 | Industrials | 12,49,823 | 12,49,378 | 0.04 | Cons Disc | 12,17,972 | 12,23,100 | (0.42) | Cons Staples | 12,14,818 | 12,19,242 | (0.36) | Health Care | 12,48,231 | 12,53,988 | (0.46) | Financials | 18,31,828 | 18,25,611 | 0.34 | Info Tech | 21,35,664 | 21,34,128 | 0.07 | Telecom Services | 3,53,879 | 3,52,452 | 0.40 | Utilities | 3,76,863 | 3,77,796 | (0.25) | |
Top |
 | Key Events |
|
Global Key Events - Labour department report showed that for the first time since July 2008, US initial unemployment claims fell below 4,00,000. Claims declined by 34,000 to 3,88,000 in the week ended December 25.
- Consumer confidence in the U.S. unexpectedly deteriorated in the month of December, with the consumer confidence index pulling back off the five-month high it set in November. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index fell to 52.5 in December from an upwardly revised 54.3 in November.
- U.S. home prices fell by a much steeper than expected annual rate in the month of October, with the data contributing to renewed concerns about the outlook for the housing market. The report showed that the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index fell at an annual rate of 0.8% in October after increasing at a revised annual rate of 0.4% in September.
- ABC News said that its US consumer comfort index averaged -44 in the week ended December 26, down from -41 a week ago. The index is now just 10 points above its all-time low and is well away from its long-term average of -14 in 25 years of weekly polls.
- Japan's Nomura/JMMA Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index reached 48.3 points in December up 1 point from November 47.3. This is the second month that the index has increased slightly.
- Japan's unemployment rate stood at 5.1% in November, unchanged from October. The November jobless rate was still below the record high of 5.6% hit in July 2009, but still well above the 4.2% rate seen at the start of 2009. The number of payroll jobs surged by a seasonally adjusted 1,50,000 month-on-month to 54.81 million, having risen 3,80,000 month-on-month in October.
- China's manufacturing activity rose at a pace that was the slowest in three months in December. The Markit/HSBC manufacturing purchasing managers index came in at a seasonally adjusted 54.4, down from 55.3 in November.
- China, which supplies over 90% of rare earth metals to global markets announced 11.4% cut in exports for the next year. The government has set its first round of 2011 rare earth export quotas at 14,446 tonnes which is 11% less than the previous year.
| Domestic Key Events - Inflation in the Food Articles climbed to 14.44% in the week ended December 18 from 12.13% in the previous week. This was the fourth instance of an increase in food inflation after easing for seven consecutive weeks.
- A meeting of an Empowered Group of Ministers (EGoM), scheduled for this month-end, to consider raising prices of diesel and domestic LPG has been deferred. No timeframe has been decided for the meeting of the EGoM headed by Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee.
- The Citibank employee who is believed to have stolen close to Rs. 400 crore from different Citibank accounts remains missing. Shivraj Puri, who worked at the bank's Gurgaon branch as a relationship manager, is accused of siphoning money from 20 accounts of high net worth individuals.
- State-owned Union Bank of India said that it is expecting Rs 1,150 crore capital infusion from the government by March 2011, which will increase the Centre's stake to 58%. Currently, the government holds 55.43% stake in Union Bank of India.
- State Bank of India is planning to mop up Rs 10,000 crore in various tranches in the remaining period of the current fiscal and the next through its public issue bonds.
- State-run explorer Oil and Natural Gas Corp plans to raise its stake in unlisted Pawan Hans Helicopters to 49% from around 21% by infusing about 960 million rupees.
- Larsen & Toubro secured orders aggregating Rs 2,503 crore for transmission, substation & railway construction projects in domestic & international markets.
- JSW Energy said it successfully commissioned second unit of 300 megawatt of the 1200 megawatt power project at Jaigad in Ratnagiri, Maharashtra.
- Sun Pharmaceutical Industries got a tentative approval from the US drug regulator for a generic version of Roche's Boniva.
- Sahara Group bought the Grosvenor House in London's Mayfair district, purchased from Royal Bank of Scotland Plc, the U.K.'s biggest government-owned bank, for 470 million pounds (USD 726 million).
|
Top |
 | Derivatives |
|
- Nifty surge significantly this week and crossed 6,100 psychological level. During the week, Nifty gained 2.04% and closed at 6,134.50 mark. The Nifty January future ended at 6,164.20 (LTP) with premium of 29.70 points. On the derivatives front the Nifty Futures prices inclined along with incline in the open interest and with positive cost of carry indicating long position initiated at the lower level. For the coming days, 6,080-6,115 level would act as the strong support for Nifty. While on upside, Nifty could find its resistance near 6,180-6,225 level.
- There was significant long position accumulated in ATM and OTM Call option. Most of the open interest accretion witnessed in the 6100 and 6200 Calls. On the flip side writing was seen between 6000 and 6100 strike Call Option. Option concentration suggests a range of 6,050-6,225 for coming session.
- The Volatility Index (VIX) declined significantly to 16.56% at end of the week. Decrease in VIX indicates Nifty is likely to trade with positive bias in initial hours of next days' trade. Volatility has a strong inverse correlation with markets.
- The put-call ratio of open interest inclined on the last day of the week after declining in last couple of days, and closed at 1.18. The options concentration has shifted to the 6000 Put option.
- The CNX IT index ended the week on a firm note at 7,491.10 marks gaining 1.87%. The CNX IT Futures prices inclined along with incline in open interest with positive cost of carry indicating that long position is being built up at current level. For the coming week, immediate support for the Index is seen in the range of 7,150-7,225 mark, whereas on the upside resistance is seen at 7,680- 7,780 levels.
- The Bank Nifty Index inclined 2.74% and settled at 11,791.45 mark. On the derivatives front we have seen that the Bank Nifty Futures prices inclined along with incline in open interest with positive cost of carry, indicating long position initiated at current level. For the coming week the Bank Nifty Index major support is seen at 11,380-11,510 whereas on the upside the index is likely to face resistance near 12,000-12,230 mark.
- In the F&O space, the FIIs were net buyer to the tune of Rs. 2,615.86 crore in Index Futures segment. This was along with increase in open interest which probably indicates long position being build up at current level. In the Index option segment, FIIs were net buyer, indicating that positions were squared off which were written earlier while in Stock Option the FIIs were net seller. Further, in the Stock Futures selling was witnessed with incline in open interest indicating stock specific short positions were built up.
- Overall, next week market is expected show a positive trend and light selloffs is likely at every resistance level. The Nifty is expected to remain in a broad range of 6,050-6,250 levels, with an intermediary support at around 6,080-6,115 levels. On upside, if level of 6,150 breached decisively then we could see rise up to the mark of 6,180-6,225. On downside, the first support will be at 6,060, followed by the 50-days Moving Average of 6,015. Any instability on the global front is likely to result in selling pressure from current levels.
| Open Interest in Nifty Future vis-à-vis Nifty
 Most Active Contracts
 Put-Call Ratio
 Volatility Index
 FIIs Cumulative trailing 5 day's data Particulars | Buy | Sell | Net | Index Futures | 16,217.45 | 13,601.59 | 2,615.86 | Index Options | 22,754.26 | 19,863.27 | 2,890.99 | Stock Futures | 25,520.90 | 27,183.84 | (1,662.94) | Stock Options | 1,231.75 | 1,264.67 | (32.92) | From December 23 to till December 30(Source: Sebi) |
Top |
 | Debt |
|
- Call rates edged tad lower as liquidity showed some sign of relief following absence of bond auction by government and OMO purchase by RBI. During the week, banks average daily borrowing from RBI under repo window stood at Rs 1,27,844 crore from previous week's Rs 1,58,390 crore average daily borrowing.
- For third consecutive week, FIIs remained net buyers in the debt market. During the week, FIIs net bought securities worth Rs 1,334.2 crore in the Indian debt market compared to Rs 54.4 crore buying in the previous week. Meanwhile, MFs continued to remain net buyer in the debt market this week, with Rs 5,263.5 crore (3 days) buying as compared to Rs 14,097.1 crore (5 days) of buying in the previous week.
- Bond prices firmed up in flat trade during the week as liquidity showed slight sign of relief. Prices were also supported from RBI decision to purchase Rs 12,000 crore of government bonds through an open market operation. Absence of bond auction this week also lifted bond prices. However, in the absence of any fresh trigger bonds remained range bound in thinly traded market. The benchmark 7.80% CG2020 is now increasingly becoming less liquid.
- Bond price may remain flattish with negative bias as inflation is once again showing signs of edging higher. India's food inflation has risen for the fourth consecutive week after easing for seven consecutive weeks. Food inflation has now accelerated to a 10-week high in mid-December. Further, rate hike worries has increased after RBI's deputy governor KC Chakrabarty said that inflation was always a concern and a pause in rate hikes does not mean a halt. However, market may once again remain thinly trade and thereby limit the movement.
- During the week, reverse repo transaction under RBI's Liquidity Adjustment Facility (LAF) remained at Rs 8,735 crore while Repo transaction stood at Rs 6,39,220 crore. On December 24, 2010, Government of India auctioned 8.30% CG 2040 worth Rs 2,000 crore, 8.08% CG 2022 worth Rs 2,000 crore and 7.17% CG2015 worth Rs 2,000 crore. On December 29, 2010, RBI auctioned 91 day Treasury Bills worth Rs 2,000 crore and 364 day Treasury Bills worth Rs 1,000 crore. On December 29, 2010, RBI held OMO purchase auction for securities worth Rs 12,000 crore.
- In the financial year 2010-11, Government of India (GOI) has planned to borrow as much as Rs. 4,57,143 crore. Till December 24, 2010, the government has completed 90.0% of the gross borrowing target for the current year. The government has scheduled Rs 440 billion crore borrowing during next 5 weeks.
| Call Rates Date | Rate (%) | 24-Dec | 6.85 | 27-Dec | 6.87 | 28-Dec | 6.85 | 29-Dec | 6.78 | 30-Dec | 6.75 |
FIIs & MFs investment in Debt Market Period | FIIs Net Investment (Rs. Crore) | MFs Net Investment (Rs. Crore) | 24-Dec | 284.4 | 2,725.7 | 27-Dec | 884.8 | 944.5 | 28-Dec | (40.3) | 1,593.3 | 29-Dec | (45.4) | | 30-Dec | 250.7 | | This week | 1,334.2 | 5,263.5 | This Month | 1,769.1 | 42,103.9 | (Source: SEBI)
Bond Yield (7.80% CG 2020) Date | LTP (Rs.) | YTM (%) | 24-Dec | 99.28 | 7.9100 | 27-Dec | 99.28 | 7.9100 | 28-Dec | 99.28 | 7.9100 | 29-Dec | 99.41 | 7.8879 | 30-Dec | 99.41 | 7.8879 | Spread
 Liquidity Adjustment Facility Date | Reverse Repo (Rs. Crore) | Repo (Rs. Crore) | 24-Dec | 1,100 | 1,49,100 | 27-Dec | 1,190 | 1,33,890 | 28-Dec | 965 | 1,25,275 | 29-Dec | 4,125 | 1,30,980 | 30-Dec | 1,355 | 99,975 | This week | 8,735 | 6,39,220 | This Month | 48,515 | 25,62,950 |
GoI borrowing Program - 2010-11 Particulars | (Rs. Cr.) | Budgeted Borrowings | 4,57,143 | Gross Borrowing Completed | 4,11,482 | Dated Securities | 3,84,000 | 364 Day T-Bills | 27,482 | % Completed | 90.01 | Net Borrowing till date | 2,96,756 | |
Government borrowing calendar (Next four auctions) Period | Maturity 5-9 yrs | Maturity 10-14 yrs | Maturity 15-19 yrs | 20 yrs and above | Total | Jan. 3-Jan. 7 | Rs 40-50 bn | Rs 40-50 bn | Rs 20-30 bn | - | Rs 110 bn | Jan. 10-Jan. 14 | Rs 40-50 bn | Rs 40-50 bn | - | Rs 20-30 bn | Rs 110 bn | Jan. 17-Jan. 21 | Rs 40-50 bn | Rs 40-50 bn | Rs 20-30 bn | - | Rs 110 bn | Jan. 31-Feb. 04 | Rs 30-40 bn | Rs 40-50 bn | - | Rs 20-30 bn | Rs 110 bn |
|
Top |
 | Commodity |
|
Crude oil prices started the week on a lower note. The prices slipped on the news that China has hiked its target lending rate and deposit rate by another 25 basis points, which raised the concern amongst investors that how higher rates could crimp growth. Immediately after, the prices began to pick up along with other commodities as dollar slipped. However, rise in the crude prices was short lived and the prices dropped despite a slipping dollar. Prices went down following the weekly inventory report from energy department, which reported a lower than expected drop of 1.3 mn barrels in crude inventories for the week ended 24 December hinting at lower demand for oil. Finally, the crude oil prices reported a decline of 1.23% and 2.26% in the international and domestic markets respectively on w-o-w basis. The crude oil prices may stay volatile in the coming week. The prices may edge lower amidst thin holiday trade. |
Gold prices started the week with an upbeat as the prices recovered on the back of a falling dollar. The yellow metal continued to glitter and prices shot up and struck almost record highs as investors sought safety in metals as a hedge against inflation. However, the rise could not be sustained and the precious metal began to drop towards the end of the week. A modest drop was seen as the investors shifted their focus towards riskier assets on the back of economic reports that checked in better than expected. Finally, the gold prices registered a gain of 2.33% in the international markets on w-o-w basis. The domestic gold prices also followed the trends in international markets and reported an upsurge of 1.48% on w-o-w basis. Gold prices might continue with the advance in the coming week. Precious metal, which is set for a 10th consecutive annual gain, may advance as investors seek a protection of wealth and alternative to currencies. |
| Weekly change in Crude prices per Barrel
| 30-Dec | 23-Dec | Change (%) | Intl Crude Oil Prices (USD) | 93.09 | 94.25 | (1.23) | Domestic Price (Rs) | 4,148.14 | 4,243.91 | (2.26) |
Inventories(Weekly Change)
Week ended | Change | Total Inventory | 24-Dec-10 | (1.3) mn barrels | 339.4mn barrels |
Weekly change in Gold prices in Rs/10gms | 30-Dec | 23-Dec | Change (%) | London pm fix(USD/troyoz) | 1,405.50 | 1,373.50 | 2.33 | Mumbai (Rs/10gms) | 20,670.00 | 20,369.25 | 1.48 | |
Top |
 | Forex |
|
Indian currency remained firm during the week as broad losses on greenback against major world currencies coupled with gains on domestic bourses helped INR higher. During the first four day on this week FIIs invested more than Rs 2,000 crore in the domestic equity and debt markets. Further, extended losses in US Dollar against majors currency also fueled gains in the Indian unit alongside regional peers. However, gains were capped due to month end demand for dollar from Oil companies. INR/ | 31-Dec | 24-Dec | %Change | USD | 44.81 | 45.23 | 0.93 | EURO | 59.81 | 59.34 | (0.79) | YEN | 55.06 | 54.50 | (1.03) |
| INR vs. USD and Euro
 |