INTRADAY calls for 4th Nov 2009
Buy Ashokley-46 for 49-51+ with sl 44
Buy RECLtd-200 above 205 for 215-222+ with sl 200
NIFTY FUTURE LEVELS
SUPPORT
4520
4443
4367
RESISTANCE
4569
4592
4671
4747
4823
4899
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Dr Reddy, Asian Paints, Ashok Ley, Crompton Greaves, PTC, Pir Health, Cummins India, Dabur, Colpal & National Alum.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
IOC, Suzlon, RCom, GMR Infra, EKC, MLL, Aban Off shore, Punj Lloyd, JP Hydro & Unitech.
Nifty is in Down trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):
Selling may continue up to 4520-4522 zone for time being.
Hurdles at 4569 & 4592 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4669-4671 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 4745-4747 zone by non-stop.
Sell if touches 4821-4823 zone. Stop Loss at 4897-4899 zone.
On Negative Side, break below 4443-4445 zone can create panic up to 4367-4369 zone by non-stop. If breaks & sustains this zone then downtrend may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 4671.20. Target at 4424.30.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 4620.00. Target at 2951.00.
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 5080.00. Target at 2951.00.
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 2575.00. Target at 6201.65.
BSE SENSEX:
Sell with a SL of 15742.13. Target at 15302.17.
Short-Term Investors:
1 Week: Bearish with a SL of 15720.73. Target at 14834.51.
1 Month: Bearish with a SL of 18381.96. Target at 14937.03.
3 Months: Bearish with a SL of 17361.47. Target at 12425.52.
1 Year: Bullish with a SL of 15197.60. Target at 18289.88.
INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy VINYL CHEM (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 524129)
Buy with a Stop Loss of 5.40. Above 6.93, it will zoom.
Today: May hold on gains.
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
1 Month: Bearish, surprisingly going up.
3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.
1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
Buy LOTUS CHOCOLATE (BSE Cash & BSE Code: 523475)
Buy with a Stop Loss of 40.35. Above 49.85, it will zoom.
Today: May hold on gains.
1 Week: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
1 Month: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
3 Months: Bearish, surprisingly going up.
1 Year: Bullish, as per current market conditions.
SPOT LEVELS
 | 4563.90 | ( -3.14 %) | -147.80 |  |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Resistance | 4683.00 | 4802.10 | 4874.35 | |
| Support | 4491.65 | 4419.40 | 4300.30 | |
 | 15404.94 | ( -3.09 %) | -491.34 | | |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | |||
| Resistance | 15797.81 | 16190.69 | 16424.31 | ||
| Support | 15171.31 | 14937.69 | 14544.81 | ||
FUNDS DATA
| FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| FII | 03-Nov-2009 | 2839.92 | 3714.18 | -874.26 |
| DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores) | ||||
| Category | Date | Buy Value | Sell Value | Net Value |
| DII | 03-Nov-2009 | 2159.11 | 1407.16 | 751.95 |
Interesting findings on web:
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose slightly on Tuesday as news of a major railroad acquisition helped sentiment, but the Dow edged lower on caution before a Federal Reserve statement on interest rates and the economy.
Morgan Stanley's downgrade of semiconductor stocks also limited a broad advance.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI slipped 17.53 points, or 0.18 percent, to end at 9,771.91. But the Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX added 2.53 points, or 0.24 percent, to finish at 1,045.41. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC advanced 8.12 points, or 0.40 percent, to close at 2,057.32.
RUSSELL570.628.22+1.46%
TRAN3789.89190.05+5.28%
UTIL361.8-0.86-0.24%
S&P 100484.9-0.25-0.05%
S&P 400670.037.87+1.19%
NYSE6812.727.76+0.41%
NAS 1001679.26.29+0.38%
The S&P 500 climbed for a second day as Buffett's takeover spurred optimism that equities will continue to rebound after $11.6 trillion in government spending, lending and guarantees returned the economy to growth following four straight quarters of contraction. The S&P 500 has rallied 55 percent from a 12- year low in March.
The Nasdaq has been down five of the past eight sessions.
Stocks struggled Tuesday, ending mixed, as investors mulled improved auto sales, surging commodity prices and Warren Buffett's buyout of railroad Burlington Northern Santa Fe.
The first day of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting and some bearish news in the financial sector were also in play.
"There's a lot of speculation right now that the long-expected correction is here, but I don't think that's true," said Tommy Williams, president at Williams Financial Advisors.
"What we're seeing is a consolidation of a market that has run too far, too fast," he said. "It may run sideways for a few weeks or even into the end of the year, but there is nothing to suggest a big correction."
He thinks the market will avoid a major drop thanks to the improving corporate and economic news, the government stimulus, and all the money idling in money market funds and low-yielding cash equivalents.
"I'm not worried that the market is going to fall apart," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "I think we're in the process of toning down expectations and understanding that a lot of what we've seen has been because of artificial stimulus."
Factory orders rose 0.9% in September after falling 0.8% in the previous month. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought it would rise 0.8%.
Data showed new orders received by U.S. factories rose more than expected in September but had little impact on the broader market.
Most major automakers reported that sales bounced back in October following a weak September, as more cars became available.
Among the standouts: Ford Motor (F, Fortune 500) said sales rose 3% versus a year ago, topping forecasts for a decline of 3%. Sales also jumped 21% from September.
Toyota Motor (TM) reported sales that were pretty flat versus a year ago, but that was better than the decline of 6% that analysts expected. Results were also up 21% from September.
General Motors said October sales rose 5% versus a year ago, but that was short of expectations.
Dow component Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) said it is cutting 7% of its global workforce as part of a cost-cutting plan that could save the company up to $1.7 billion by 2011. Shares lost less than 1%.
The Federal Open Market Committee began a two-day meeting on Tuesday. While investors expect the Fed to leave rates close to zero, they are nervous to hear what the officials say about the economic outlook.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who convenes a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee today, is gambling that by March, he can stop the purchases of mortgage-backed securities that have propped up the housing market. The FOMC will release its monetary policy statement tomorrow.
People "are going to be looking for any indication that the Fed is signaling that it's eventually going to pull back on monetary stimulus," said Keith Wirtz, chief investment officer at Fifth Third Asset Management Inc., which oversees $18.6 billion in Cincinnati. "They're going to sit and read through all the words one by one."
The central bank's two-day policy meeting got underway Tuesday, with a statement due Wednesday afternoon.
The Fed is widely expected to hold the fed funds rate, a key bank lending rate, at historic lows near zero. As always, investors will be attuned to what the Fed says about the economic outlook in its statement. The Fed could also provide hints as to when it might start withdrawing some of the trillions in stimulus it put into the system over the last year to temper the impact of the financial crisis.
The bank is not expected to boost interest rates until sometime next year.
Of 358 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported quarterly earnings since Oct. 7, 84 percent exceeded estimates, poised for a record percentage in data going back to 1993.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average.DJT rose 5.3 percent as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKa.N: Quote, Profile, Research) agreed to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp (BNI.N: Quote, Profile, Research) in a deal that values the railroad company at $34 billion, Berkshire's biggest deal ever.
Most U.S. stocks rose after Warren Buffett agreed to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. and Stanley Works said it will take over Black & Decker Corp., while technology shares fell on an analyst downgrade of chipmakers.
Burlington Northern surged 28 percent after Buffett made what he called an "all-in wager" on the nation's economy. Black & Decker rallied 31 percent, the most since at least 1980. Energy and raw-materials producers increased as oil advanced and gold climbed to a record. Intel Corp. led the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower as Morgan Stanley reduced its rating on U.S. semiconductor stocks to "cautious."
"When Warren Buffett puts money behind something, people then seem to get on it," said Christopher Sheldon, the Boston- based director of investment strategy at BNY Mellon Wealth Management, which oversees $142 billion globally. "People who are looking at the lackluster jobs growth and the constrained consumer have to look at the other side of this, which is probably what Warren Buffett is doing, which is the outlook for profits."
"One of the themes we've been pointing toward is that the next catalyst after earnings is M&A activity, and we've had some big ones," said Tim Smalls, head of U.S. stock trading at brokerage firm Execution LLC in Greenwich, Connecticut. "People consider companies to be cheap."
The news gave a boost to transports — and not just railroad stocks. FedEx and UPS rose, as did major airlines. The Dow Jones transportation index rose 5.3 percent.
But Ford [F 7.48 -0.10 (-1.32%) ] and other auto makers declined amid worries about auto sales: Ford said its sales fell, while GM said sale rose last month.
Burlington Northern jumped 28 percent to $97. The takeover, the largest ever for Berkshire, will cost the company $26 billion, or $100 a share in cash and stock, for the 77.4 percent of the railroad that Buffett's company doesn't already own. Including its previous investment and debt assumption, the deal is valued at $44 billion, Berkshire said in a statement. Berkshire's Class A and B shares climbed at least 1.7 percent.
At $100 a share, Buffett is paying 18.2 times Burlington's estimated 2010 earnings of $5.51 a share, according to the average analyst projection in a Bloomberg survey.
That compares with the 13.4 multiple for the S&P 500 as of yesterday's close. Omaha, Nebraska-based Union Pacific Corp.'s ratio was 13, while Jacksonville, Florida-based CSX Corp.'s was 13.1, Bloomberg data show. They are the biggest U.S. railroads behind Burlington by 2008 sales. On March 9, Burlington fetched 7.8 times next year's profit projection. Union Pacific and CSX gained more than 7.3 percent, while Norfolk Southern advanced 5.4 percent.
A group of 10 transportation stocks in the S&P 500 jumped 5.8 percent, the most since April. An index of industrial shares, which includes railroads, rallied 1.4 percent for the biggest advance among 10 industries.
Black & Decker surged 31 percent to $62. The maker of DeWalt power drills and Price Pfister faucets agreed to be purchased by Stanley Works for $3.5 billion in stock. Stanley Works rallied 10 percent to $49.69. Cognizant Technology Solutions Corp. added 8.2 percent to $41.97. The computer-services provider to Aetna Inc. and Kimberly-Clark Corp. said third-quarter profit rose 21 percent as sales increased more than analysts anticipated.
Intel, the world's biggest computer-chip maker, slid 2.7 percent to $18.50 as Morgan Stanley reduced its rating on semiconductor stocks and downgraded Intel to "equal-weight." The brokerage also downgraded Novellus Systems Inc., which fell 5.2 percent to $19.71, and KLA-Tencor Corp., which lost 3.5 percent to $31.70.
Raw-material producers gained 1.2 percent, adding to yesterday's 1 percent advance. Newmont Mining Corp. jumped 6.7 percent after PT Aneka Tambang, Indonesia's second-largest nickel producer, was appointed by the Indonesian government to buy a 14 percent stake in company's local unit.
Owens-Illinois Inc., the world's largest maker of glass containers, and AK Steel Holding Corp., the fourth-largest U.S.- based steelmaker, each added at least 3.9 percent.
Energy stocks in the S&P 500 rose 1.1 percent as a group. Crude oil for December delivery added 1.9 percent to $79.60 a barrel.
Rowan Cos. advanced 6.3 percent to $24.83 after reporting third-quarter profit excluding some items of 54 cents a share, 5.5 percent higher than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Denbury Resources Inc. lost 1.5 percent to $12.90. The U.S. oil and natural-gas producer fell for a second day after it said it will buy Encore Acquisition Co. for about $4.5 billion to add fields in the Rocky Mountains and Gulf of Mexico.
Microsoft Corp. fell 1.3 percent to $27.53. The world's largest software maker said it is cutting its price for running customers' e-mail systems, as it tries to keep clients from switching to Google Inc.
Rockwell Collins Inc. lost 3 percent to $49.24. The maker of cockpit instruments and radios said it is looking for "bolt- on, tuck-in acquisitions" after generating a record level of operating cash flow from higher military sales and job cuts. Sales and profit fell in the third quarter as business-jet builders cut production and airlines put off maintenance.
MasterCard (MA, Fortune 500) reported higher-than-expected quarterly earnings, reversing a year-ago loss. The credit card processor also reported a higher quarterly revenue that topped estimates.
Looking forward, MasterCard said that fiscal-year 2009, 2010 and 2011 revenue growth will come in shy of the long-term objective of 12% to 15%. Shares fell 1.6%.
On the earnings front, Swiss bank UBS [UBS 16.22 -0.56 (-3.34%) ] reported its fourth straight quarterly loss and missed analysts' target.
That, plus news that Britain's Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group are selling hundreds of branches, rattled the U.S. banking sector. Dow components Bank of America and JPMorgan struggled to hold gains for any length of time. Citigroup and some regional banks were even harder hit.
Initially, the banking sector woes weighed on a variety of bank shares, lowering the KBW Bank (BKX) index by 1%. But the index erased losses by the close.
Industrial and material stocks continued to benefit from the encouraging manufacturing readings from all over the globe yesterday: Dow componets Caterpillar, DuPont and United Technologies all advanced, despite the overall downward pull on the market today.
Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. (HIG:US) gained 3.2 percent to $26.65. The insurer boosted its full-year profit forecast after third-quarter adjusted earnings exceeded analysts' estimates.
Maxwell Technologies Inc. (MXWL:US) slid 5.1 percent to $18. The maker of electronic components posted a loss excluding some items of 7 cents a share in the third quarter, 84 percent wider than the average analyst estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
Pacer International Inc. (PACR:US) surged 18 percent to $3.20. The provider of trucking, freight and transportation logistics services posted third-quarter profit of 2 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg on average estimated the company would have a 2 cent per-share loss.
Stec Inc. (STEC:US) slumped 32 percent to $15.70. The maker of memory chips forecast fourth-quarter sales of $103 million at most, trailing the $106.6 million average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
True Religion Apparel Inc. (TRLG:US) declined 11 percent to $23.75. The seller of jeans forecast 2009 profit of $1.86 a share at most, missing the $1.87 average per-share estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
After the bell today, we'll get results from Dow component Kraft Foods [KFT 27.53 -0.11 (-0.4%) ].
S&P 500 - Risers
Black Decker Corp. (BDK) $62.00 +30.97%
Burlingtn N Sante Fe (BNI) $97.00 +27.51%
American International Group Inc. (AIG) $39.22 +14.31%
Stanley Works The (SWK) $49.69 +10.06%
GANNETT CO INC (GCI) $10.54 +7.99%
Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) $59.41 +7.90%
S&P 500 - Fallers
Novellus Systems Inc. (NVLS) $19.65 -5.42%
Vulcan Materials Co (VMC) $45.06 -4.37%
Kla-Tencor Corp. (KLAC) $31.51 -4.10%
Sandisk Corp. (SNDK) $20.04 -3.95%
Applied Materials Inc. (AMAT) $11.89 -3.31%
Rockwell Collins Inc. (COL) $49.24 -3.03%
Dow Jones I.A - Risers
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) $56.46 +1.75%
Alcoa Inc. (AA) $12.66 +1.44%
Bank Of America Corp. (BAC) $14.80 +1.16%
American Express Inc. (AXP) $36.04 +1.01%
Du Pont E I De Nemours and Co. (DD) $32.55 +0.87%
United Technologies Corp. (UTX) $63.20 +0.86%
Dow Jones I.A - Fallers
Intel Corp. (INTC) $18.50 -2.68%
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) $30.67 -1.89%
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) $47.51 -1.35%
Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) $27.53 -1.26%
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) $29.07 -1.16%
Coca-Cola Co. (KO) $53.12 -1.12%
VIX28.81-0.97-3.26%
Oil,Gold & Currencies:
U.S. light crude oil for December delivery rose cents $1.47 to settle at $79.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for December delivery rallied $30.90 to settle at $1,084.90 an ounce after earlier hitting an intraday record high of $1,087 an ounce.
The dollar gained versus the yen and fell against the euro.
Typically, a stronger dollar would pressure dollar-traded commodities such as oil and gold, but that wasn't the case Tuesday.
The yen rose against the euro for a second day on concern that the global economic recovery is slowing, after a government report showed Australian retail sales unexpectedly dropped.
The yen strengthened against 15 of 16 major counterparts after Japanese Finance Minister Hirohisa Fujii today said the government will probably cover a tax revenue shortfall with debt sales, adding to signs the nation's economic recovery will take time. The U.S. dollar fell against the yen on speculation the Federal Reserve will today repeat its pledge to keep the benchmark interest rate near zero for an "extended period."
"The unexpected slump in Australian retail sales is sparking worries about the sustainability of the recovery there," said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign-exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. "This is causing risk aversion and buying of the yen and the dollar as safe-haven currencies."
The yen advanced to 132.70 per euro at 11:28 a.m. in Tokyo from 133.01 in New York yesterday. Japan's currency strengthened to 90.17 against the dollar from 90.33. The greenback traded at $1.4716 per euro from $1.4724.
The Australian dollar weakened for a second day against the greenback after a report showed retail sales in Australia fell 0.2 percent in September after rising 0.7 percent in August. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expected a 0.5 percent gain.
The data came a day after the Reserve Bank of Australia said it was "prudent to lessen gradually" the stimulus provided by low borrowing costs.
Risk Aversion
"The market is a bit sensitive after the RBA was more dovish than expected yesterday and so we're seeing a relatively sharp reaction to modestly weaker data," said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist at Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. "You have declining risk appetite in markets at the moment, and therefore there's more focus on the negatives."
Australia's dollar dropped 0.3 percent to 90.02 U.S. cents. It fell 0.4 percent to 81.17 yen.
Fujii had said last month Japan's budget deficit for the year ending March 31 may be "quite large" as tax revenue falls, an indication bond sales may exceed 50 trillion yen.
Tax Revenue Down
Tax receipts may drop below 40 trillion yen in the fiscal year, less than the earlier 46 trillion yen forecast, Fujii said on Oct. 20.
"The idea of covering falling tax revenue with debt damps the economic outlook," said Koji Fukaya, a senior currency strategist in Tokyo at Deutsche Bank AG. "That may be adding to risk aversion," boosting demand for the yen.
The Fed will release its monetary policy statement today at the end of a two-day meeting. Policy makers will hold the benchmark interest rate target in a range between zero and 0.25 percent, according to the median estimate of economists in a Bloomberg News survey.
"The Fed will have no choice but to keep interest rates for a while," said Minoru Shioiri, Tokyo-based chief manager of foreign exchange trading at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co. "There's still too much supply of the dollar in the market. The bias is for the dollar to weaken at least by year-end."
Bonds:
Treasury prices fell, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.47% from 3.41% Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
What to expect:
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; ISM services index; weekly crude inventories; Chrysler business plan; Fed statement; Earnings from Comcast, Time Warner, Martha Stewart, Cisco, News Corp., Prudential and Qualcomm
THURSDAY: Retailers report October sales; BOE, ECB statements; weekly jobless claims; Earnings from Toyota, CVS, Sirius, Unilever, CBS, Nvidia and Starbucks
FRIDAY: October jobs report; Geithner speaks; Droid phone launches; wholesale trade; consumer credit; Fed's Duke speaks
Other Headlines:
IMF Chief Strauss-Kahn Says Chinese Yuan Is `Undervalued,' Will Appreciate
Disney Gets Chinese Government Approval to Build Theme Park in Shanghai
Raj Rajaratnam Said to Keep Personal Investments in Sri Lanka Amid Probe
RBA's Stevens Signals Jump in Currency Gives Scope to Slow Rate Increases
Virginia Republicans Sweep Top Jobs, Delivering Political Setback to Obama
Iran Increases Uranium Output as Photos Show Need for Wider Nuclear Checks
German Opel Workers Bitter After GM Shock
Bitterness, anger and disbelief mixed with betrayal and even resignation are just some of the emotions boiling within Germany following Tuesday's shocking news that General Motors will scrap its sale of Opel.
GM Board Changes Its Mind, Decides to Keep Opel
Buffett Needed No Bankers for Burlington Deal
IMF sees East Asia economies surpassing euro zone: report
Bailed-Out Banks Preparing Pay Bonanza: Study
Oracle-Sun Micro Deal May Be Rejected by EU: Report
Taiwan's Via Telecom may supply China Mobile's 4G chips
HSBC to cut 1,700 jobs as its restructures in Britain
Morgan Stanley Said to Seek Bids for Joint-Venture Stake in China's CICC
Wednesday Preview: Market Taking Its Cue From Fed Statement
Traders have been talking about tomorrow's Fed statement for days now, because even a subtle tilt in the Fed's posture on interest rates could unhinge the popular "risk on" trade, where investors bet against the U.S. dollar and throw money into risky assets such as stocks and commodities.
"No change of policy is likely. If there are any changes in the language, it's just to give flexibility for when there is a change, so that the comment made now doesn't sound too iron clad," said Pimco senior strategist Tony Crescenzi in a recent interview.
The statement is expected to be released at 2:15 p.m., after the Federal Open Market Committee winds down its second day of meetings. The November meeting is the Fed's second to last of the year, and it is widely anticipated it will do nothing before January, at the earliest.
"It's pretty clear they're not going to pull the trigger this week," said Stephen Stanley, chief economist at RBS. "I don't think they're on the cusp of changing the language because I don't think they have any expectation they are going to be tightening any time soon. We look at that and say it's more of a January proposition, and if you thought they were changing the language in January, then they're maybe moving at mid-year."
The Fed's low-rate policy and the growing U.S. deficit have been weights on the dollar, but the low rate environment has also helped to reflate the stock market.
Crescenzi, in a note, said the Fed should indicate more specifically the type of economic and financial conditions that would justify the current language that it sees "exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." If it were to do that, investors would have a better idea of what would determine a change in policy and would respond incrementally to changing economic conditions rather than suddenly to a shift in the Fed policy statement.
"The market is very sensitive to even modest changes in the wording. You can see how nervous people are by looking at the short end of the (Treasury) curve," said Marc Chandler, head currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.
The target Fed funds rate has been at zero to 0.25 percent, and the part of the Fed statement traders have been chattering about is the part that says the Fed will keep rates low for an "extended period."
"If they dropped that extended period, I think the dollar would react positively even if the stock market sells off," said Chandler.
Economists say the Fed is likely to acknowledge an improved economic outlook, but it is watching for a turn in the employment picture before it changes its stance. The next good look at the jobs situation is Friday, when the government releases its October employment report.
Even if it doesn't make a change, Fed committee members are expected to spend time discussing change, which will make the minutes of the meeting important to markets when they are released next month.
"There's this massive chasm at the FOMC between the hawks and the doves. Maybe more than I've ever seen. I think these policy debates are pretty...heated...is the right word. But there is some pretty substantive disagreement among the committee members about where we are and where we're likely to be headed," Stanley said.
Traders look to the Fed to make other moves that could push rates higher. For instance, traders believe the Fed could carry out reverse repos which would be a way to move rates higher without changing the target Fed funds rate. They also look to the Fed to withdraw its quantitative easing over the next couple of months.
Already, the Fed wound down last week its $300 billion program to buy Treasurys. It plans to discontinue its program to buy $1.25 trillion in mortgage backed securities in March.
"December of last year is when they contemplated buying Treasurys," said Cantor Fitzgerald Treasury strategist George Goncalves.
"We've come full circle. I don't think they'll do anything major now or in December and we'll see how the payroll numbers come, now and in December," said Goncalves.
He said a bigger story for the Treasury market Wednesday could actually be the refunding announcement from Treasury. "Tomorrow's a bigger day for the Treasury market than some other markets. You'll get some insight into where the Treasury's head is at," he said. The Treasury is expected to hold auctions of TIPS and 3-, 10- and 30-year notes next week.
Stocks Tuesday finished mixed, with the Dow down 17 at 9771, and the S&P 500 off 2 at 1045. Except for the 2-year, Treasurys moved lower along the curve, and the dollar was higher against a basket of currencies. The 10-year yield rose to 3.473 percent.
Chandler said the dollar has been moving higher not because of new long positions but because investors are reducing shorts. He said one thing they making the market nervous is the European Central Bank meeting Thursday, where the ECB could signal an end to a bank lending program that allows banks to borrow an unlimited amount of money at 1 percent for a year. That could strengthen the euro.
But perhaps the most interesting market move Tuesday was the sharp rise in gold, which jumped to a record $1,085, and touched a high of more than $1,088 per troy ounce after a major gold purchase by the Indian government. The move in gold was an unusual break in the "risk" trade, where both commodities and the dollar typically rise.
In addition to the Fed meeting Wednesday, there is some important data ahead in the morning. ADP releases its private sector payrolls report at 8:15 a.m. The October ISM non manufacturing index is reported at 10, and weekly oil inventory data is released by the government at 10:30 a.m. Weekly mortgage applications are released at 7 a.m.
Companies reporting earnings ahead of the open include Comcast, Devon Energy, El Paso, Foster Wheeler, Marsh McLennan, Molson Coors, Time Warner, Total, Automatic Data, Baker Hughes, and Becton Dickinson. Cisco reports after the closing bell.
Wednesday EarningsCMCSA14.51---UNCH024,218,586DVN66.451.47+2.26%4,326,522EP9.790.11+1.14%13,185,033FWLTZ8.77---UNCH0237,275MMC23.36-0.12-0.51%4,782,212TAP49.38-0.34-0.68%1,298,185TWX30.160.01+0.03%9,018,065ADP40.650.21+0.52%4,255,006BHI43.431.22+2.89%4,767,918BDX
Asia:
Most Asian stocks rose as gains by metal producers on record-high gold prices overshadowed a downgrade on semiconductor companies.
Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold producer, gained 3.3 percent. Toyota Motor Corp. added 0.8 percent in Tokyo after the Yomiuri newspaper said the company had raised its global production plan for this year. Tokyo Electron Ltd., the world's second-largest maker of semiconductor equipment, slumped 4.1 percent as Morgan Stanley downgraded U.S. semiconductor companies.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 114.61 as of 10:24 a.m. in Tokyo, with four stocks advancing for every three that declined. The gauge has surged 62 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on signs government stimulus measures are reviving the global economy.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average was little changed at 9,808.13. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1 percent. South Korea's Kospi Index gained 1 percent.
Futures on the U.S. Standard & Poor's 500 Index added 0.2 percent. The gauge rose 0.2 percent yesterday as Warren Buffett agreed to buy Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. and Stanley Works said it will take over Black & Decker Corp.
Newcrest climbed 3.3 percent to A$34.47, while Lihir Gold Ltd. added 4.1 percent to A$3.30. Gold jumped to a record $1,088.50 an ounce in New York yesterday after India's central bank purchased 200 metric tons of the metal from the International Monetary Fund. Crude oil rose 1.9 percent to settle at $79.60 a barrel.
Toyota Production
Toyota, the world's largest carmaker, added 0.8 percent to 3,600 yen. The company lifted its global production plan for fiscal 2009 to 7 million vehicles from the previous target of 6.67 million units, the Yomiuri newspaper reported.
Tokyo Electron sank 4.1 percent to 4,900 yen, while Sumco Corp., which makes silicon wafers, retreated 2.8 percent to 1,665 yen. Morgan Stanley reduced its rating on U.S. semiconductor shares to "cautious" and downgraded Intel Corp. to "equal-weight."
Stocks in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index are valued at 22 times estimated earnings, compared with 17 times for the S&P 500 and 16 times for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.
Nikkei 225 9,796.28 -6.67 ( - 0.07%). (08.21 AM IST).
HSI 21568.14 +328.08 +1.54%. (08.22 AM IST)
Chinese stocks open 0.16% higher on Wed
Chinese stocks opened higher on Wednesday morning, tracking gains from the previous closing.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 3,119.31 points, up 0.16% or 5.08 points from the previous closing.
The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.2% or 26.23 points higher at 12,886.1 points.
Rupee:
The partially convertible rupee ended at 47.40/41 per dollar on Tuesday, weaker than its previous close of 46.96/97.
India:
Traders pressed the panic button on fears that global economic recovery would come to a halt if stimulus packages are withdrawn. Some disappointing quarterly earnings also led to the sharp fall in share prices.
Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex ended at 15,404.94, down 491.34 points or 3.09 per cent. The index hit intra-day low of 15,330.56 and high of 15,957.06.
National Stock Exchange's Nifty closed at 4,563.90, down 147.80 points or 3.14 per cent. The 50-share index fell to a low of 4,538.50 and high of 4,729.85 in today's trade.
The BSE Midcap Index was down 3.74 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index slipped 4.50 per cent.
Amongst the sectoral indices, BSE Realty Index plunged 9.76 per cent, BSE Metal Index fell 5.95 per cent and BSE Oil&gas Index was down 4.10 per cent.
Hindalco Industries (-10.50%), DLF (-9.04%), Jaiprakash Associates (-7.52%), Sterlite Industries (-6.40%) and ACC (-6.20%) were amongst the top Sensex losers.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries fell a massive 5.73 per cent on the BSE.
Bharti Airtel (2.67%), Maruti Suzuki (1.13%) and Sun Pharmaceuticals (0.31%) were the only Sensex gainers.
Reliance Communications reported 51.66 per cent decline in its consolidated profit at Rs 740 crore for the second quarter due to provisions for foreign exchange fluctuation or derivative losses. The company had consolidated net profit of Rs 1,531 crore in the same quarter last fiscal. The stock tumbled 6.45 per cent on the NSE.
Hindalco Industries reported a 52% drop in standalone net profit for the quarter ended September, due to a sharp drop in metal prices on the London Metal Exchange. The Aditya Birla group flagship company said its net profit in the July-September period fell to Rs 344 crore from Rs 720 crore last year, while sales in the same period was down 13.4% to Rs 4,917 crore. The stock plunged 10.45 per cent.
Suzlon Energy posted Rs 356-crore loss in the quarter ended September 30, 2009 compared to a Rs 22.84-crore loss posted in the same period last year, owing to lower volumes. Its total consolidated revenues, during the period, declined to Rs 4,793-crore as compared to Rs 6,921-crore a year-ago. The stock tanked 13.39 per cent on the NSE.
Market breadth was negative on the BSE with 2171 declines against 534 advances.
Manufacturing growth slows in October 2009
Orchid Chemicals reported net loss of Rs13.20 crore in Q2
Hindustan Unilever's topline grew by 5% in Q2
Bharat Electronics net up by 92% in Q2
SBI's bottomline rise by 10.2% in Q2
The biggest fall before this was on August 17 when it tanked 600 points. In the previous five trading sessions, it had lost 914.53 points.
* Shares fall for sixth session, longest losing run in a year *
Indian shares dropped 3.1 percent on Tuesday, a sixth straight fall that took the market to its lowest close in two months.
Reliance Industries fell 5.7 percent to 1,820.65 rupees,its lowest close in nearly four months, ahead of the resumption of a court hearing over terms of a deal to supply gas to Reliance Natural Resources (RENR.BO: Quote, Profile, Research).
Reliance Communications (RLCM.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 5.7 percent to 165.90 rupees, its lowest close in more than seven months.The stock is down over 46 percent since the end of September.
Top lender State Bank of India (SBI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 4 percent to 2,103.50 rupees on concerns over asset quality, even after it reported a 10.2 percent rise in quarterly profit on the weekend.
Aluminium producer Hindalco (HALC.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) declined 10.5 percent to 109.15 rupees, after its September quarter net profit halved.
Consumer goods maker Hindustan Unilever (HLL.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) fell 3.6 percent to 272.75 rupees, reporting its September quarter net profit dropped 21.6 percent.
Top mobile operator Bharti Airtel (BRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) bucked the weaker trend on the day, rising 2.7 percent to 299.95 rupees, although it is still down more than 28 percent since the end of September.
Top car maker Maruti Suzuki (MRTI.BO: Quote, Profile, Research) climbed 1.1 percent to 1,418.80 rupees, after its October sales rose an annual 32.4 percent .
The 50-share NSE index .NSEI fell 3.14 percent to 4,563.90, its lowest close in 2-½ months.
Markets at lowest level since Sept 2009
Markets edge lower for 6th consecutive day
Markets see longest loosing streak since Nov 2008
Markets witness biggest pt loss since 17 Aug 2009
Nifty ends below 4600 mark
Markets down in 9 of last 10 trading sessions
Sensex looses 350 pts, Nifty edges 170 pts lower
Sensex swings over 600 pts, Nifty gyrates 190 pts
Total turnover at Rs
Advance decline ratio at 1:7 on NSE
Breadth of markets dismal for 11th trading session
All sectoral indices end in red
Realty index collapses by 10%
Metal index melts over 6%
Oil and Gas index looses over 4%
Small cap down 4.6%, Mid cap down 3.8%
Broader markets under perform Sensex
Reliance Industry drags Sensex by 130 pts
Infosys, ITC, SBI drags Sensex by 115 pts
Stimulus packages to continue: FM
Mahindra Satyam-SAAB announce $300m deal
SBI may withdraw 8% home loan scheme
BSNL, Sistema Shyam to share towers
Govt mulls PSU disinvestment
Lloyds to raise capital from CoCo
Govt planning regulators for coal sector
Himalaya signed a deal with US firm
Govt mulling over import of 2 MT rice
India's global trade rises to 54% of GDP
China concern over India's visa policy
Atul Chaturvedi takes over as Steel Secy
Honda Siel launches new variant of CR-V
INVESTMENT VIEW
Suzlon: Sell And Never Look Again
Suzlon Energy Ltd, the world's third-largest wind turbine supplier, has scaled down its sales forecast for the current year to 1,900-2,100 megawatts (Mw) from the 2,400-2,600 Mw guidance given earlier, owing to delay in execution of orders.
The troubled wind energy major has also embarked upon a cost control and operational improvement initiative under 'Project ACE' (Achieving Collective Excellence) to get out of losses and mounting debts.
Suzlon, which had to rectify rotor blades of its entire V2 type S88–2.1 Mw turbine fleet owing to manufacturing defects, had posted a Rs 355.5 crore loss for the third quarter ended September, against a loss of Rs 22.8 crore in the previous year's corresponding quarter.
For the first six months of the current financial year, Suzlon's losses were Rs 808 crore. Consolidated revenue for the quarter also shrank by 44.4 per cent to Rs 4,793 crore, against Rs 6,921 crore in the corresponding previous year quarter.
"During the first half of 2009-10, conversion of booked orders to revenue showed some slowing down. Potential new orders were postponed, owing to the weak global macroeconomic and financing environment," said Sumant Sinha, chief operating officer.
Suzlon alone has an order book of 1,488 Mw worth Rs 8,285 crore, with 1,365 Mw in international orders and 123 Mw in domestic orders. Its German subsidiary REpower reported a contractually confirmed order volume of ¤1.6 billion, as on September 30, 2009.
Sumant Sinha said sales may be skewed towards the end of the financial year. The market conditions remain challenging in the short-term, but long-term outlook remains positive, as policy changes in key markets give strong impetus for growth.
"We are starting to see a recovery across global markets with finance returning. New energy policies and stimulus packages in the EU, US, China, Australia, India and emerging markets, indicate rising acceptance of the challenges of climate change and a growing appetite for renewable energy solutions," said Tulsi Tanti, chairman and managing director.
Suzlon said the company had appointed Boston Consulting Group (BCG) to advise on business strategies to adapt to evolving marketplace and to have a strong focus on operational efficiency improvements.
The company, sitting on a debt of over Rs 11,000 crore, mainly owing to acquisitions of REpower and Hansen, has launched Project ACE, a comprehensive exercise assisted by BCG, aimed at optimising operational efficiencies and to achieve excellence across our value chain.
"We have mapped more than 100 processes, and have identified 12 critical processes with improvements across several operating parameters. Phase-I of this initiative is complete and Phase-II is underway," said a Suzlon press release.
Sinha said Suzlon was undertaking a series of cost and operational improvement initiatives. "We continue our tight focus on cost control to achieve better liquidity and debt management. We have undertaken a comprehensive debt refinancing exercise to improve the capital structure and increase financial flexibility. We are also working with Boston Consulting Group to optimise our end-to-end delivery capability to adapt to a rapidly evolving marketplace," he said.
Further, Suzlon has brought in more professionals to manage the company. The company has appointed John O'Halloran, former executive director of engineering at Cummins as president (technology). It has also hired former Ford India president and managing director Arvind Mathew as President, Nacelle manufacturing.
(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
