NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Profit Booking up to 3594 level will be healthy.
Hurdles at 3643 & 3665 levels.
Above 3741-3743 zone, buying may continue up to 3792-3794 zone by non-stop.
On Negative Side,
rebound expected at around 3566-3568 zone. Stop Loss at around 3515-3517 zone.Short-Term Investors:
Reversal (Positive) is seen. Avoid Short Selling at lower levels.
Short-Term Upward Target at 3818-3820 zone (or) at 3869-3871 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3439-3441 zone (or) at 3490-3492 zone.
----------
BHEL (NSE Cash): Avoid Short Selling
in this scrip. Technically rebound expected.Support at 1438 level. Rebound expected
at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.Hurdle at 1560 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
PRAJ INDS FUTURES (NSE): Avoid Short Selling
in this scrip. Technically rebound expected.Support at 70 level
. Rebound expected at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.Hurdle at 92 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
----------
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,447.11. Down by 508.39 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 996.23. Down by 60.66 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,754.88. Down by 108.08 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.915/93 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than 47.80/81 at close on Monday.
------------
Sell CAPITAL GOODS Stocks
----------
: Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke warns that the financial crisis has not only darkened the country's current economic performance but also could prolong the pain. The Fed chief's more gloomy assessment on Tuesday appeared to open the door wider to an interest rate cut on or before Oct. 28-29
--------
BPCL, TVS Motors, HPCL, Hero Honda, Lupin, UBI, Hindustan Uni, PNB, Mosear Bear & Indian Bk.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Rajesh Ex., 3I infotech, Praj Inndustr, NIIT, Aptech Training, HDCL, Sterlite Tech, JSW Steel, S Kumar & LT.Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Provogue announced that the UK-based LTG International would invest Rs. 569.7 mn to pick up 3.36% stake in a unit of its real estate arm Prozone Enterprises Pvt Ltd. (ET)
RIL and NTPC told the Bombay High Court that they are willing to go for an out-of-court settlement to resolve their dispute over supply of KG basin gas. (BS)
L&T has signed an agreement with Gujarat government for three highway projects and would pay Rs. 6,000 cr as premium to the government over the next 20 years. (BS)
Economic and Political Headline
The Reserve Bank slashed CRR by 50 bps to ease the tight liquidity position will be effective from the fortnight starting October 11, a move that may induce banks to lower commercial lending rates. (ET)
SEBI lifted curbs on FIIs imposed a year ago to stem huge sales by FIIs. (BS)
The US officials are examining ways to ease deepening strains in the commercial paper market, which have been hit by unwillingness among money market investors to hold risky assets. (WSJ)
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Selling may continue up to 3594 level for time being.
Hurdles at 3636 & 3652 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 3710-3712 zone.Sell if touches 3768-3770 zone. Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at around 3942-3944 zone.
On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 3534-3536 zone then downtrend may continue and have caution.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 3999-4001 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3476-3478 zone.
FII DATA
FII
06/10: -1169.33 Cr. (Prov)
DII
06/10: 661.00 Cr. (Prov)
STERLITE INDS (I) (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall. Technically it should go down.
If breaks & sustains at below 275 level then downtrend may continue and have caution.
Hurdle at 344 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
JSW STEEL FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall.
Technically it should go down.If breaks & sustains at below 297 level then downtrend may start and have caution.
Hurdle at 385 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
------------------------
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,955.50. Down by 369.88 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,056.89. Down by 42.34 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,862.96. Down by 84.43 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 47.80/81 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its 47.0750/0850 at close on Friday.
--------------
+ve sectors & scripts : Zandhupharm, Star
+ve to Market
1. SGX nifty 2. P-note issues 3. RBI cuts CRR by 50 bps
-ve to Market
1. US market 2.Asian Market 3. Sentiment 4.FII continous selling 5. second package not +vely discounted 6. Investors will offload below 3800 7. built-up in fresh short position 8. Expected financial crisis in UK 9. Rumours in the market 10. Tchnically weakness 11. Reimbursement pressure in MF.
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
FII DATA
FII
06/10: -1169.33 Cr. (Prov)
DII
06/10: 661.00 Cr. (Prov)
--------------
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures:
BPCL, TVS Motors, HPCL, Hero Honda, Lupin, UBI, Hindustan Uni, PNB, Mosear Bear & Indian Bk.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Rajesh Ex., 3I infotech, Praj Inndustr, NIIT, Aptech Training, HDCL, Sterlite Tech, JSW Steel, S Kumar & LT.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
----------------------------
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3573.45-3575.45 zone. Rallies up to 3656.85 can be used to sell. SL at 3716.30 level
NIFTY FUT: If downtrend continues then it will fall up to 3632.85-3634.85 zone. Rallies up to 3686.60 can be used to sell. SL at 3716.30 level.
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong
Futures: Bpcl, Tvs motor, hero Honda, Lupin, Hind petro, Hin uni lvr, Acc, Boi, Hdfc & Sun Pharma.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Kpit, sobha, Hdil, Rajesh Exports, Niit, Skumar, Jsw steel, Aptech training & Bajaj Hind.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
It was a nightmarish start to last week with the House of Representatives rejecting the bailout package and the credit crisis claiming a string of victims in Europe. Equities struggled to their feet mid-week, as the package was tweaked to placate the dissenting members and was finally passed.
However, resumption of the decline on Friday reflects the skepticism regarding the execution of this plan and its ability to stem the turmoil that is assuming gargantuan proportion.
It was a one-day-up-one-day-down kind of a week with the Sensex first plunging to a two-year low at 12153 only to recover sharply, leading optimists to hope that a bottom was finally in place.
But Friday's sell-off dashed these hopes as the index closed at the lowest level this year.
Volumes were low, especially in the derivatives segment. Low open interest in futures and options indicates that traders too have grown wary at these levels.
Sensex has ended the week on a shaky note, thanks to the 529 points cut on Friday. The evening star in the daily candlestick chart denotes a temporary peak at 13203. The succession of lower peaks and troughs since August 12, the foray below 12500 last week and the weekly close at this threshold compound to make the medium-term view negative.
If we consider the targets of the wave from 15579-peak, they are 12354 and then 11200. A decline to the second target remains a possibility as long as the Sensex remains below 14295.
A close above 14295, where the 50-day moving average is also positioned, is needed to allay fears of a decline below 12000.
The short-term trend in the Sensex is also down. A decline to 12135 or 11925 is possible in the near-term. Short-term traders can expect psychological support around the 12000 mark. Conversely, close below this level will exacerbate the bearish sentiment. Key resistances for the week would be at 13200 and then 13500. Failure to rally beyond 13500 will imply weakness ahead.
The Sensex is currently poised at an important juncture. A significant trough is possible in the zone between 12000 and 12500. But breach of the floor of this band can lead to sharp erosion in stock prices. The movement of this index over the next two weeks would be key to determining the long-term road-map.
Nifty (3818.3)
Nifty recorded an intra-week low at 3715 on Tuesday. But there was a sharp rebound from here and the index closed the week within our medium-term range between 3800 and 4500.
Technical indicators, however, signal that this support could be breached in the short-term and the index could decline to 3715 or 3636 in the week ahead. Failure to move above 4070 in the early part of the week will fortify this assumption.
The medium-term view too is currently negative and the target of the move from 4649 gives us the downward targets at 3778 and then 3454. If the down move continues next week, the second target would be in reckoning.
Global CuesPanic gripped investors across the globe as most indices recorded multi-year lows last week. CBOE VIX, the investor's fear gauge, recorded a six-year peak at 48.4.
Commodities could do no better last week. CRB index, that tracks the movement of a basket of commodities, was down almost 12 per cent, belying our expectation of a rally in this asset class. Strength in the US dollar added to the pressure on commodity prices. The dollar index on ICE gained a stellar 4.5 per cent after rebounding from the support at 76.
Dow Jones Industrial Average moved conclusively below the support at 10700 last week. A decline to 10200 and finally to 9900 is now possible for this index. The S&P 500 likewise shattered the support at 1170 and is now headed towards the support band between 1060 and 1070.
Asian equities turned in a better performance than their European and Latin American counterparts.
------------------------------
Infosys achieved our near-term target of Rs 1,301 and reversed on Wednesday. As explained earlier, 50 per cent retracement of the structural up-trend from April 2003 is at Rs 1,376. The on-going correction can halt at this level. But a decline below Rs 1,300 will drag the stock towards 61.8 per cent retracement level that is at Rs 1,212 or even lower to Rs 1,125. Weekly oscillators are portending a decline below Rs 1,300 in the medium-term. Investors should hold the stock with a stop at Rs 1,110.
Supports for the week would be at Rs 1,300 and then Rs 1,212. Resistances would be encountered at Rs 1,500 and then Rs 1,610. Fresh longs should be initiated only if the stock records a firm close above Rs 1,500.
--------------------
It was a deep 14 per cent cut for Tata Steel last week and the stock moved close to the long-term support band between Rs 370 and Rs 390 indicated in our previous column. The down trend that commenced last November can halt in this band and form a significant trough. However, there are no signs of reversal in the charts yet. If this level is breached, the next support is at Rs 290. Investors can wait for the stock to move beyond Rs 500 before adding to their holding.
Immediate downward target for the stock is at Rs 372 and then Rs 333. Fresh shorts are, however, recommended only on a close below Rs 370. Resistances for the week would be at Rs 460 and then Rs 510.
------------------------
Reliance Infra
The short-term trend in Reliance Infrastructure turned overtly negative with the strong penetration on the support at Rs 840. As explained earlier, a re-test of the previous trough at Rs 660 becomes imminent now. The medium-term trend in the stock is however sideways and the stock is moving between Rs 660 and Rs 1,100 in what appears to be a base-building effort. A breach of the Rs 660 support will bring the next long-term support at Rs 480 into reckoning.
Immediate supports are present at Rs 660 and then Rs 590 Resistances would be encountered at Rs 880 and then Rs 980. Traders can initiate fresh longs if the stock moves firmly above the second resistance.
-------------------------
SBI continued to surprise with its resilience. Despite brief incursions below the short-term support at Rs 1,400, the stock managed to close above this level on all four days. A move higher towards Rs 1,565 or Rs 1,620 is possible in the near-term. But the presence of strong resistance at these levels makes it necessary for traders to tread with care till the stock moves firmly above the second resistance.
The medium-term trend in the stock is up since the Rs 1,007-trough. The current move between Rs 1,300 and Rs 1,600 can be followed by an upward break-out to Rs 1,700 or Rs 1,850. The medium-term view will turn negative only on a close below Rs 1,250.
-------------------------
This stock recovered from the low formed at Rs 97.5 on Monday to spend the rest of the week in a narrow range between Rs 100 and Rs 120. The doji formation in the weekly candlesticks chart denotes status quo.
That is, the medium-term view remains negative.
If the stock declines below the psychological support at Rs 100, it will pave the way for a decline to Rs 96, Rs 78 or Rs 62.
A close above Rs 138 is needed to mitigate the bearish medium-term view.
Supports in the week ahead would be at Rs 106 and then Rs 98. Near-term resistances would be at Rs 134 and then Rs 145.
Traders can hold their longs with a stop at Rs 95.
--------------
RIL declined below the short-term support at Rs 1,950 last Monday and recorded a trough at Rs 1781 thereafter. The bearish engulfing candle with a shaven head formed in the weekly chart implies that the down trend can continue to drag the stock lower to Rs 1,733 or Rs 1,660 over the medium-term. As explained earlier, the area around Rs 1,700 is a strong long-term support. If this level is breached, next support on the long-term chart is at Rs 1,338.
Downward targets for the week are at Rs 1,735 and then Rs 1,680. Fresh shorts are recommended only on an emphatic decline below Rs 1,765. Resistances for the week are at Rs 1,990 and then Rs 2,125.
NIFTY OCT FUTURES
SUPPORTS AT 3869 3831 3811
RESISTANCE AT 3912 3929
INTRADAY CALLS
NIFTY FUT: Sell with a Stop Loss of 3912.60 level. Target at 3811.35-3813.35 zone.
Cash Market Intra-Day: Buy RANBAXY (NSE Cash CMP 267.35) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 263.35 level.
Cash Market Intra-Day: Sell THERMAX (NSE Cash CMP 410.50) for Intra-Day gains. Stop Loss at 414.50 level.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Tata Steel agreed to buy 19.9% stake in Canadian miner New Millenium Capital Corp for USD 22.6 mn. (ET)
Sterlite Technologies received a Rs. 24 cr order from state-run telecom major Bharat Sanchar Nigam for supplying optical fibre cables. (ET)
Omaxe received an order worth Rs. 907.1 mn to build a township for Hindustan Zinc in Udaipur. (ET)
-------
Economic and Political Headline
Finance Ministry said that Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the requirement for banks to keep cash with the central bank through a cut in CRR rate in its mid-term monetary review on October 29 even though the banking system is facing liquidity problem. (ET)
The government is considering a proposal to scale up FDI in single-brand retail to 100%, as well as allow 51% FDI in multi-brand retail of electronics goods, computers, sports goods as well as watches. (BS)
Orders to the US factories fell 4% in August most in almost two years, signalling that business spending slowed down even before the recent worsening of the credit crunch. (Bloomberg)
---------
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Profit booking up to 3929 level will be healthy too.
Hurdles at 3977 & 3988 levels. Above these levels, rally may
continue up to 4007-4009 zone by non-stop.
Supply expected at around 4046-4048 zone on
upper side. This supply should get absorbed too.On Negative Side, rebound expected at around
3869-3871 zone. Stop Loss at 3831-3833 zone.Short-Term Investors:
Reversal (Positive) is seen. Avoid Short Selling at lower levels.
Short-Term Upward Target at 4065-4067 zone (or) at 4104-4106 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3773-3775 zone (or) at 3811-3813 zone.
--------GAS AUTHORITY (I) (NSE Cash): Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Technically rebound expected.
Support at 401 level. Rebound expected at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.
Hurdle at 430 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
BPCL FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall. Technically Profit Booking expected.
If breaks & sustains at below 346 level then downtrend may start and have caution.
Hurdle at 375 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
-------The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,482.85. Down by 348.22 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,114.28. Down by 46.78 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,976.72. Down by 92.68 points.
Indian bond and currency markets were closed on Thursday for a public holiday.
-------Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Futures: TVS Motors, BPCL, Indian Bk, BOB, Axis Bk, ACC, Hero Honda, Lupin , Hind Petro & HDFC. And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks: IVR Prime, NIIT, Aptech training, Sterlite technol, Rajesh Exports, JSW Steel ltd., Kpit, HDIL, Ranbaxy & LT.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
-------Sell OIL & GAS INDEX Stocks
----+ve Indices and sector : Bank, OIL&Ref ACC, TVSmotor, Lupin, Alchem, PNB, Punjlloyd, Tricom, CESC, Fedbank, PFC, MRPL
Buy ITC-192 for 196-199 with sl 190 [Breakout]
Buy Cipla-232 for 246 with sl 228
Buy Gail-415 for 433 with sl 406
Buy HDFCBank-1295 above 1315 for 1400 with sl 1300
Buy HDFC-2207 above 2220 for 2270 with sl 2200
Buy ONGC-1040 above 1055 for 1200 with sl 1040
Friday's Calls
Buy Axis-720 for 740 with sl 711 [Trading]
Buy GAIL-408 for 416 with sl 404
Buy BOB-297 above 304 for 311-17 with sl 300
Buy Bhartiartl-784 above 790 for 813 with sl 784
Buy HPCL-242 above 245 for 253 with sl 240
Buy BOI-285 for 300 with sl 282 [Breakout]
Buy BPCL-360 for 374 with sl 355
+ve to Market
1. Technical breakout 2. Script wise movement
-ve to Market
1. US market 2.Asian Market 3. Sentiment 4.FII continous selling 5. Bail our package not +vely discounted 6.
-------------------
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 1ST OCT 2008
Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
BHEL bagged a Rs. 9.9 bn order to set up a 500 MW thermal power plant in Rajasthan. (ET)
Ashok Leyland entered into collaboration with the US based agriculture equipment manufacturer, John Deere for manufacturing and marketing of construction equipment. (ET)
Bharat Electronics bagged a Rs. 1 bn order to supply 1.02 lakh electronic voting machines to the Election Co Commission. (ET)
Economic and Political Headline
The Finance minister Mr. Chidambaram said that market regulations would be tightened if needed to deal with the consequences of a widening global financial crisis. (ET)
The RBI Deputy Governor said that the central bank is planning to facilitate financial inclusion as many SMEs lack accessible, adequate and timely services. (BS)
The House price index in the US cities declined to 16.3% in July, at the fastest pace on record, signalling the worst housing recession in a generation had yet to trough even before this month´s credit crisis. (Bloomberg)
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 3942 level, relief rally may continue up to 3995-3997 zone by non-stop.
Support at 3869 & 3917 levels
. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 3787-3789 zone.Below 3708-3710 zone, expect panic up to 3628-3630 zone by non-stop.
On Positive Side, supply expected at around 4021-4023 zone. This supply should get absorbed too.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4101-4103 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3549-3551 zone.
-------
BANKEX Stocks May Zoom
------------
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,850.66. Up by 485.21 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,164.74. Up by 58.32 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,082.33. Up by 98.60 points.
Indian government debt and foreign exchange markets were shut on Tuesday as banks close their half-yearly accounts.
-------------
Buy Axis-720 for 740 with sl 711 [Trading]
Buy GAIL-408 for 416 with sl 404
Buy BOB-297 above 304 for 311-17 with sl 300
Buy Bhartiartl-784 above 790 for 813 with sl 784
Buy HPCL-242 above 245 for 253 with sl 240
Buy BOI-285 for 300 with sl 282 [Breakout]
Buy BPCL-360 for 374 with sl 355
----------+ve to Market
1. US market 2.Asian Market 3. Technical breakout 4. SGX Nifty 6. Sentiment 7. US Bailout bill passed 8.FII buying 9. Govt. Msgs.
BIJLEE (NSE Cash): Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking expected.
Hurdle at 1155 level.
Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.Support at 1036 level. Should not be allowed
to break at any cost.BHEL FUTURES (NSE):
Book Profits in this scrip. Technically Profit Booking expected.Hurdle at 1681 level.
Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.Support at 1558 level.
Should not be allowed to break at any cost.-----------------
Corporate News Headline
Axis Bank received the approval from its board for a private placement of USD 50 mn of senior notes under its medium-term note programme. (ET)
IVRCL Infrastructures & Projects bagged the Rs. 4.18 bn Punasa Lift Irrigation Scheme, to be executed in Madhya Pradesh over a period of 36 months. (BS)
Hindustan Zinc got a nod from the National Board for Wildlife to set up a Zinc Dust and CGG unit near Rajaji national park in Uttarakhand. (ET)
Economic and Political Headline
The finance ministry has blocked a proposal from the department of industrial policy and promotion to allow FII to invest over and above the sectoral caps on foreign investment. (ET)
Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said that the financial crisis in developed countries could spill over to the rest of the world. (Reuters)
The USD 700 bn financial-rescue plan, intended to restore confidence in the US banking system, collapsed in partisan wrangling as the House of Representatives voted down the proposal backed by the Bush administration and congressional leaders of both parties. (WSJ)
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Below 3847-3849 zone, selling may continue up to 3821 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 3763-3765 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 3869 & 3897 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 3981-3983 zone by non-stop.
Sell if touches 4065-4067 zone. Stop Loss at 4093-4095 zone.
On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 3735-3737 zone then downtrend may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4176-4178 zone.
Short-Term
Support at at 3651-3653 zone. ----------Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Syndibank, Hindunilvr, Col Pal, Bpcl, Acc, Glaxo, Hero Honda, Itc, Hindpetro & Ongc.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Litl, Ivrprime, 31Infotech, Rajesh Expo, Kpit, Strtech, Aptecht, Niit Ltd, Hdil & Ranbaxy.Nifty is in Down Trend.
-----------USHA MARTIN (NSE Cash): Avoid Short Selling
in this scrip. Technically pullback should happen.Support at 47 level.
Expected to rebound at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.Hurdle at 54 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
SUZLON ENERGY FUTURES (NSE): Avoid Short Selling in this scrip. Technically pullback should happen.
Support at 139 level.
Expected to rebound at around this level. If not, then problem for bulls too.Hurdle at 168 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,365.45. Down by 777.68 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,106.42. Down by 106.85 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,983.73. Down by 199.61 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.95/96 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than 46.545/555 at the close on Friday.
Sell CAPITAL GOODS Stocks
-------
Support at 3970 & 3988 levels.
Below 3920-3922 zone, expect panic and have caution.
On Positive Side, rallies up to 4119-4121 zone can be used to sell.
Stop Loss is too far on upper side and can be placed at around
4199-4201 zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4248-4250 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 3871-3873 zone.
-----------
COLGATE PALMOLIV (NSE Cash): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.
If crosses & sustains at above 427 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 400 level. It should not be allowed to break at any cost.
DABUR INDIA FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should go up.
If crosses & sustains at above 94 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 85 level. It should not be allowed to break at any cost.
-------
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,143.13. Up by 121.07 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,213.27. Up by 4.09 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,183.34. Down by 3.23 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.5450/5550 per
dollar on Friday, below its 46.20/22 at close on Thursday.
----------
FMCG INDEX Stocks May Zoom
-------
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Syndi Bk, Gtoffshore, Moserbaer, Hind UniLvr, Glaxo, Acc, HeroHonda, Jindalsaw, Albk & ColPal.
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Unitech, 31Infotech, Ivrprime, Kpit, Aptecht, Hdil, Niit, Strtech, Litl & Ranbaxy.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
--------
Market may open with small gap up, Positional target for cash nifty
3822-3801, Be cautious on market and longs, close below 3800 more
bearish in intra as well as positional.Keep Cash nifty levels 3900 and
3800 for support and 4023 and 4067-80 for resistance.
-------
+ve Indices and sector :
Cement, Spic, Emami, ITC, Shantigear,Sunpharm a
Short Bankindia-276 for 263 with sl 280
Short HDFCBank-1244 for 1200 with sl 1255
Short Nationalumn- 380 for 363 with sl 386
Buy NTPC-174 above 177 for 183 with sl 174
Buy ACC-613 above 616 for 633 with sl 610
---------
+ve to Market
1.US Market 2. Nuclear Deal 3. US's crisis recovery package 4.
-ve to Market
1. Asian Market (Mixed) 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. Gold 6. SGX
Nifty 7.Sentiment
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India: Do Not Remain Under An Illusion, The Worst Is Still To Come
In comparison to the Year 2000-2003 Bear Market, Bombay has still a long way to slide down. Till decrepit NBFCs, Private Commercial Banks, Heavily leveraged Cyclical stocks do not move down to low PEs, and till all loss making concerns are out of mutual fund portfolios, Indian investors beyond the odd blip here or there can trust that we have equalled the fall of September 2000. The bigger fall which will take Bombay below 7000 over the next 15-18 months is still to come. My view is that the great dollar-based credit expansion of the last half-century has come to an end. It will end with BOTH a bang and a whimper – that is, both a deflationary contraction...and an inflationary blow-off. A deflationary contraction is the market's normal response to an inflationary boom. And an inflationary blow-off is the market manipulators' normal response to a deflationary contraction; but let me hasten to add, there is no guarantee that they can pull it off. So, as usual, we live in a world of great unknowns...and lesser unknowns...and things we don't even know we don't know. What we do know is that stocks have not yet bottomed out (they are nowhere near their low points)...and bonds are still expensive (people still lend to the U.S. government for 10 years at less than 3% – that's substantially less than the current consumer inflation rate)...and the dollar is still treated with respect, even though its long-term value is zero, Which gives me the conviction that while the US and its markets will survive, very little will remain of the Emerging Markets. There is a lot that can go wrong that hasn't gone wrong yet, in other words. "The worst is to come." Sometimes it's nice to hear things laid out bluntly – and long time sufferers know that. Former chief economist of the IMF, Professor Kenneth Rogoff is not one to sugarcoat or mince words. He told attendees of a conference in Singapore that in the worldwide credit crunch, "The U.S. is not out of the woods. I think the financial crisis is at a halfway point, perhaps. I would even go further to say the worst is to come." The recent nationalization of the mortgage giants in the US, is the market manipulators response to the deteriorating market conditions. The merger of Wamu with Citi, and the task that Wachovia is having with other Banks means the scare of Default has now spread to the Bank Depositors. Foreign investors, especially the large nations with current account surpluses in Asia hold too much US Treasury and Bank Commercial Paper-most of which is worthless. To keep the confidence of Asian partners alive the US Treasury will not cut interest rates any more. At the same dissolution of Western Equity Investment in India and other nations of Asia which carry Trade, Budget and Fiscal Deficits will continue as Investors pull out even 10 or 20 cent to the Dollar on their Investments. The Global financial problems are bigger than an odd Bank rescue here or there. Even the $ 700 bn US bail-out may just put the brakes on but will not stop the Car without brakes. Different nations in Asia have their own unique problems. While Japan is not exposed to subprime, it holds around ¥9.6 trillion in bonds and mortgage-backed paper issued by finance groups. We all know that these securities aren't guaranteed by the U.S. government. Russia, China and all Asian Forex Surplus nations hold US Treasuries in lieu of cash. Till the dollars return home and the dollar debts are repaid, there will be no end to the on-going financial crisis and no bottoming of stocks.(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
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Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 4178 level, expect short covering up to 4208-4210 zone by non-stop.
Support at 4145 & 4149 levels
. Below these levels, selling may continue up to 4137 level and thereafter it can tumble up to 4115-4117 zone.Do remember that, 4105-4107 zone should not be allowed to break on down side.
On Positive Side, rallies up to 4238-4240 zone can be used to sell. Stop Loss at 4248-4250 zone.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4279-4281 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 4075-4077 zone.
----------Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
Mosear Bear, National Alu, Syndicate Bk, ACC, Indian Oversea, Jindal Saw Ltd., BPCL, HDFC, Allahabad Bk & Ongc
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Rajesh Exp. Jaiprakash. KPIT, Info edge, Sobha Delevoper, Birla corp., Lanco Infra, NIIT & Ranbaxy.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
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EXIDE INDS (NSE Cash): Likely to Zoom.
Technically it should go up.If crosses & sustains at above 68 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 61 level
. It should not be allowed to break at any cost.HERO HONDA FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom
. Technically it should go up.If crosses & sustains at above 869 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 846 level.
It should not be allowed to break at any cost.------------------------------------------------------------------------
FII DATA yesterday
FII25/09: -1050.38 Cr. (Prov)
DII25/09: 605.59 Cr. (Prov)
-----------The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,022.06. Up by 196.89 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,209.18. Up by 23.31 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,186.57. Up by 30.89 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 46.20/22 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than 45.95/96 at close on Wednesday.
-----------AUTO INDEX Stocks May Zoom
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COMMODITY CALL
YOU CAN CARRY CRUDE WITH A STOP LOSS OF 4690 AND CARRY GOLD ALSO
FII DATA
FII25/09: -1050.38 Cr. (Prov)
DII25/09: 605.59 Cr. (Prov)
Inflation remains unchanged at 12.14 per cent
http://www.ibnlive.com/rd/?y=4459
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SENSEX (Pre-Market): Weak opening expected. Expected to open weak at around 40-60 points lower.
OUTLOOK FOR TODAY 25TH SEP 2008
GM!!!!! Don't Live Your Life in – 'What Was' or 'What Will Be'. Live Life in 'What it is'
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Nifty is in Down Trend.
+ve Indices and sector :
Cnxmidcap, Pharma, Bajajholding, Cipla, Pirhealth, GDL, HDFCBank, Kotakbank, Apil
Buy AxisBank-710 for 725-728 with sl 700
Buy Tatacomm-465 for 480 with sl 460
Buy Alsalinfra-89 for 94 with sl 87.50
Buy BRFL-351 for 363 with sl 345
Short Punjlloyd-290 below 285 for 268-55 with sl 290
+ve to Market
1.F&O Closing 2. Short covering
-ve to Market
1. US Market 2. Asian Market (Mixed) 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. Gold 6. SGX Nifty
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Selling may continue up to 4121-4123 zone for time being.
Hurdles at 4153 & 4170 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 4212-4214 zone.
Sell if touches 4254-4256 zone. Stop Loss at 4296-4298 zone.
On Negative Side, if breaks & sustains at below 4079-4081 zone then downtrend may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Reversal (Negative) is seen. Exit on rallies.
Short-Term Upward Target at 4337-4339 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 4037-4039 zone.
Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
ACC LTD (NSE Cash): Likely to Fall.
If breaks & sustains at below 619 level then downtrend may cottinue.
Hurdle at 655 level. Supply expected at around this level. This supply should get absorbed too.
TATA POWER FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Fall.
If breaks & sustains at below 986 level then downtrend may cottinue.
Hurdle at 1038 level.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 10,854.17. Down by 161.84 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,188.22. Down by 18.87 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,153.33. Down by 25.65 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.72/73 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than its previous close of 45.45/46.
Selling may continue up to 4204-4206 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 4246 & 4254 levels. Above these levels, expect relief rally up to 4294-4296 zone.
Above 4335-4337 zone,
expect a jump up to 4376-4378 zone by non-stop.On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 4164-4166 zone. If breaks then problem too.
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term Upward Target at 4416-4418 zone.
Short-Term Support at at 4123-4125 zone.
-----------------Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 Strong Future:
IOB, BOB, Maruti, Mosear, Jindal Saw, PNB, HPCL, Indian Bk, BPCl & Union Bk..
And this is the list of 10 Weak stocks:
Adlabs Films, Unitech, Polaris Software, KPIT, Rajesh Export, NIIT, Peninsula Land, Ranbaxy & HDIL.
Nifty is in Down Trend.
BHARAT BIJLEE (NSE Cash):
Likely to Zoom. Technically it should move up.If crosses & sustains at above 1316 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 1240 level.
Should not be allowed to break at any cost.CROMPTON GREAVES FUTURES (NSE): Likely to Zoom. Technically it should move up.
If crosses & sustains at above 271 level then uptrend may continue.
Support at 241 level.
Should not be allowed to break at any cost.Market may open with small gap down and on support, So, don't short in first 10-15 minutes. Positional target for cash nifty 4000, Be cautious on market and longs, below 4150 more bearish in intra.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 11,015.69. Down by 372.75 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,207.09. Down by 47.99 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,178.98. Down by 94.92 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 45.45/46 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than 45.80/82 at close on Friday.
-ve to Market
1. US Market 2. Asian Market 3. Crude 4. Technical breakout 5. SGX nifty -56 6. Gold.
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Bombay: A Market Of Six Stocks