Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Market Outlook 8th Sep 2009

INTRADAY calls for 08th Sep 2009
+ve sector, scripts : Bank, KLGsystel, SPARC[sun pharma adv]
BUY IDFC-147 for 150-151+ with sl 145
BUY SOBHA-252 for 270-279+ with sl 248
BUY ICICIBank-788 for 807-815+ with sl 778
BUY Pateleng-447 for 460-467+ with sl 440
 
Positional
BUY Welguj-254 for 300+ with sl 236
BUY Tatametali-94 for 105+ with sl 91
BUY AXISBank-932 for 955-968+ with sl 922
 
NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
RESISTANCE

4817
4859
4900
SUPPORT
4786
4767
4724
4682
4640
4599
Buy LG BALAKRISHNAN&BROS;ELGI EQUIPMENTS
 
Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:
Bhushan Steel, Tata Motors, Unitech Ltd, Aban Off shore, Orchid Chem, IOC, BPCL, Rcom, Hind Petro & India Bulls Retail.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
India Cements, Power Grid, Sesa Goa Ltd, BHEL, BEL, Pirmal Health, MTNL, GTL,NTPC &  ACC Ltd.
 Nifty is in Up trend
 
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Rally may continue up to 4815-4817 zone for time being.

Support at 4767 & 4786 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4724-4726 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 4682-4684 zone by non-stop.

Below 4640-4642 zone, expect panic up to 4599-4601 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4857-4859 zone can take it up to 4898-4900 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 4623.80 level, it can tumble up to 4092.20 level by non-stop.
SL triggered. 3 closes above 4623.80 level, expect short covering up to 4889.60 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:
 
 Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.

SL triggered. 3 closed above 15973 level, expect short covering up to 16842 level by non-stop.

POSITIONAL BUY:
Buy LG BALAKRISHNAN & BROTHERS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend may continue.

Mild sell-off up to 18 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 20 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 23 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 17 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy ELGI EQUIPMENTS (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend may continue.

Mild sell-off up to 75 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 81 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 86 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 70 level for your long positions too.

SPOT LEVELS TODAY

NSE Nifty Index   4782.90 ( 2.19 %) 102.50       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4822.17 4861.43   4932.87  
Support 4711.47 4640.03 4600.77

BSE Sensex  16016.32 ( 2.09 %) 327.20     
  1 2 3
Resistance 16103.46 16190.59 16345.69
Support 15861.23 15706.13 15619.00
 FUNDS DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 07-Sep-2009 3001.83 1941.21 1060.62
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 07-Sep-2009 1457.03 1307.07 149.96

Global Cues & Rupee
Markets in the U.S. were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.
The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.66/67 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 48.90/91.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
No direction from the US, which was closed for Labour Day yesterday.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:

Crude oil traded little changed near $68 a barrel in New York on speculation that OPEC will keep output unchanged as the end of the U.S. driving season cuts gasoline demand.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meeting in Vienna tomorrow, is unlikely to seek a further reduction in targets, Kuwait Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Al-Sabah said yesterday. Floor trading was shut yesterday for the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., marking the end of the summer vacation season.

"The widespread expectation, reinforced by comments from OPEC officials, is that we'll see no changes there," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "The holiday in the U.S. quieted things down a bit."

Crude oil for October traded at $68.18 a barrel, up 16 cents from the Sept. 4 close, in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:35 a.m. Singapore time. Electronic trades yesterday will be booked today for settlement purposes. Oil has gained 53 percent since the start of the year.

OPEC, which pumps about 40 percent of the world's oil, cut quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day between September and December to prevent a glut amid the global recession. Kuwait expects no further cuts in output quotas, Al-Sabah told reporters in Kuwait City yesterday.

"Prices are high enough, so there's not a strong case for OPEC to cut production," Commonwealth Bank's Moore said. At the same time, "fundamentals are not that tight that there is a case for them to increase output."

Gasoline Usage
Gasoline consumption usually ebbs through September and October, allowing U.S. refiners to complete maintenance before heating-oil demand rises. About 39.1 million Americans were expected to travel in the U.S. over the Labor Day holiday weekend, 13 percent fewer than a year earlier, according to an estimate by the AAA, the nation's largest motoring organization.

ConocoPhillips is shutting down an amine tower at its 247,000 barrel-a-day Sweeny oil refinery in Texas for maintenance works, according to a filing with state regulators. The amine tower removes hydrogen sulfide gas from hydrocarbons during the refining process.

BP Plc said last week that it was closing a gasoline-making unit for planned work at its 470,000 barrel-a-day Texas City, Texas, plant.

Global stock markets rose for a third day yesterday. The MSCI World Index of 23 developed countries advanced 0.9 percent, while U.S. and Canadian markets were closed for Labor Day holidays. The yen weakened against 15 of the 16 most-traded currencies.

'Macro Picture'

"The improved macroeconomic picture has probably helped build a bit of a floor to the oil price," Moore said. "If it does fall back, it will only be a relatively modest decline at this point."

Brent crude oil for October settlement rose as much as 61 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $67.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures exchange. It was at $66.91 a barrel at 9:42 a.m. Singapore time. The contract fell 29 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $66.53 a barrel yesterday.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc's Nigerian unit said protesters besieged its Olomoro pumping station in the southern Niger River delta to press demands for a greater share in the region's oil wealth for local communities.

Demonstrations that started last week continued this morning, Tony Okonedo, a company spokesman, said yesterday. The protests concern "issues that are already receiving attention" from Shell, he said, adding that "we're in dialogue with the community."

The action hasn't disrupted oil production because the Olomoro station has been shut since June "due to the general security situation in the region," Okonedo said.

Gold futures advanced to $1,000 an ounce for the first time in more than six months as a weaker dollar and concern that inflation may accelerate boosted the metal's appeal as an alternative investment.

The contract for December delivery touched exactly $1,000 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, taking this year's rise to 13 percent. Immediate delivery metal rose to $998.25 an ounce. Gold has rallied every year since 2000.

Governments have cut interest rates and boosted spending to fight the worst recession since World War II, spurring investors to buy bullion as a hedge against potential inflation and debasement of currencies. The Dollar Index has lost 4.1 percent this year. Gold typically moves inversely to the U.S. currency.

"There's not many good options for investors to hedge against a declining dollar and rising inflation," Hwang Il Doo, head of trading with KEB Futures Co., said today from Seoul. "Gold will rise to $1,100 an ounce by the end of the year, once physical demand from China and India adds fuel to the rally."

Gold last traded at more than $1,000 on Feb. 20, the first time the metal had breached that price since March 2008. Futures then retreated to as low as $865 on April 6. The December contract added 0.2 percent to $998.20 an ounce in New York at 9:32 a.m. in Singapore. Spot gold traded at $995.85 an ounce.

The metal's advance boosted producers. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia's largest gold-mining company, gained 3.6 percent to A$33.73 in Sydney trading on the Australian stock exchange. Lihir Gold Ltd., the second-largest, increased 3.7 percent and St. Barbara Ltd. jumped 3.5 percent.

Haven Investment

Gold may be cementing its status as a haven investment as governments seek to flood the financial system with cash in an effort to haul the global economy out of a recession. The record for gold futures is $1,033.90 an ounce, reached March 17, 2008.

"The reasons to own gold as an investment make sense," Sydney-based Greg Gibbs, a Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc strategist, said in advance of the metal's gain to $1,000 today. "It is a hedge against policy makers losing control of fiscal and quantitative monetary policies."

U.S. President Barack Obama has increased U.S. marketable debt to an unprecedented $6.78 trillion as he borrows to spur the world's largest economy. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts that the U.S. will sell about $2.9 trillion of debt in the two years ending September 2010.

'Hint of Hyperinflation'

"Money has been printed massively," said investor Jim Slater, who was deputy chairman of Galahad Gold Plc before it liquidated in 2008. "Inflation will follow fairly soon" and there may be "a hint of hyperinflation. Even a hint will be very good news for gold."

The Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the dollar's value, declined for a third day today.

Gold at more than $1,000 may attract more investors seeking to take advantage of the longest advance in the metal's price in 60 years. Assets in some of the industry's largest exchange- traded funds have reached all-time highs the past few months.

The SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest ETF backed by the metal, reached a record 1,134.03 metric tons on June 1. The fund, which held 1,077.63 tons as of Sept. 4, has overtaken Switzerland as the world's sixth-largest gold holding.

Investors bought 222.4 tons of bullion in the second quarter, 46 percent more than a year earlier, the World Gold Council said in August. That's less than 595.9 tons in the first quarter, when investment demand exceeded usage by jewelers for the first time since at least 2004.

'Speculative Investors'

"The market has the power to move up further," said Ellison Chu, a metals manager with Standard Bank Asia Ltd., citing dollar weakness. Still, "the risk is that speculative investors could be tempted to sell out," said Chu.

Other precious metals have outperformed gold this year. Silver for immediate delivery gained 0.7 percent to $16.45 an ounce today, the highest since August 2008. It has climbed 44 percent this year.

Platinum added 0.4 percent to $1,265 an ounce, increasing its gain this year to 35 percent. Palladium, the best performing precious metal this year, was 0.3 percent lower at $293.25 an ounce. It has gained 57 percent in 2009.

"We are still skeptical that this is a sustainable rally and a comeback could be very painful," Andrey Kryuchenkov, a VTB Capital analyst in London, said before today's advance in gold. "Risk-averse buying is nowhere near the levels we saw last winter."

The euro traded near a one-week high against the dollar before a report forecast to show industrial production in Germany rose in July, adding to signs the recession is abating in Europe's largest economy.

The greenback was close to its lowest level in a year versus Australia's dollar on speculation Federal Reserve officials will this week signal the central bank will keep borrowing costs low, boosting demand for so-called dollar carry trades. The U.S. currency also fell for the first time in four days versus the yen after the United Nations said the U.S. currency's role in international trade should be reduced.

The German data "will be positive for growth prospects and add to the course of analysts who anticipate a reasonable recovery," said Adam Carr, a senior economist at ICAP Australia Ltd. in Sydney. "My expectation is that the euro will appreciate."

The euro traded at $1.4346 as of 10:16 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4332 in London yesterday, when it reached $1.4362, the highest level since Sept. 1. It was at 133.27 yen from 133.39 yen. The dollar traded at 92.90 yen from 93.08 yen. The pound fetched $1.6360 from $1.6349. It as at 87.67 pence per euro from 87.68 per euro.

Australia's dollar bought 85.52 U.S. cents after touching 85.77 cents yesterday, the most since Sept. 1, 2008. The so- called Aussie slipped 0.3 percent to 79.42 yen.

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the dollar against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen, pound and franc, was at 77.957 today from 78.012 yesterday.

German's factory output rose 1.6 percent in July after a 0.1 percent drop in June, according to the median estimate of 39 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Economy Ministry will report the figure today in Berlin.

Fed Speakers

The dollar weakened before speeches by U.S. policy makers including Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher this week.

Fisher said last week the U.S. economy will probably undergo an extended period of slow growth while facing "financial headwinds" that will take years to wane, indicating the Fed may maintain its benchmark interest rate as low as zero to spur an economic recovery.

"Overall monetary support from the major economies is supporting risky and high-yield currencies," Greg Gibbs, a currency strategist in Sydney at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, wrote in a research note today. "The U.S. dollar is the most popular funding currency."

Evans will speak on "The Great Inflation Debate" in New York and Fisher will speak on "Today's Economy: New Challenges for Business" in Dallas tomorrow. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart will speak in Jacksonville, Florida, and Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn will speak in Washington on Sept. 10.

In carry trades, investors get funds in a country with relatively low borrowing costs and invest in another nation with higher interest rates.

Current-Account Surplus

The yen was little changed after a government report showed Japan's current-account surplus narrowed in July as exports fell.

The surplus declined to 1.266 trillion yen ($13.6 billion) in July from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for 1.45 trillion yen.

What to expect:

Today - Tuesday, 8 Sep 2009

Symb Company Event

ALLP.OB  Alliance Pharmaceutical Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 ALLIANCE PHARMACEUTICAL CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HWAY.O  Healthways, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2009 Healthways Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AXR  Amrep Corp  (Tentative) Q1 2010 AMREP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

BSET.O  Bassett Furniture Industries Inc  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Bassett Furniture Industries Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MSGI.OB  MSGI Security Solutions, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2009 MSGI SECURITY SOLUTIONS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CASY.O  Casey's General Stores, Inc.  Q1 2010 Casey's General Stores Earnings Release

CHP  C&D Technologies, Inc.  Q2 2010 C&D Technologies, Inc. Earnings Release

CHKE.O  Cherokee, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2010 Cherokee Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MZ.DE  Milacron Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Milacron Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OSCI.F  Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corporation  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Oscient Pharmaceuticals Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OXIS.DE  Oxis International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 OXIS International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

DYNT.O  Dynatronics Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Dynatronics Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FSII.O  FSI International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 FSI International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FLOW.O  Flow International Corporation  Q1 2010 Flow International Earnings Release

FCEa  Forest City Enterprises, Inc.  Q2 2009 Forest City Enterprises, Inc. Earnings Release

HTMXQ.PK  Hartmarx Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Hartmarx Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

KVa  K-V Pharmaceutical Company  (Tentative) Q2 2009 KV Pharmaceutical Company Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SSY  SunLink Health Systems Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 SunLink Health Systems, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

LKI  Lazare Kaplan International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Lazare Kaplan International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FAC  First Acceptance Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 First Acceptance Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MSB  Mesabi Trust  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Mesabi Trust CBI Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

NAII.O  Natural Alternatives International Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Natural Alternatives Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PBY  The Pep Boys-Manny, Moe & Jack  Q2 2009 Pep Boys Earnings Release

NLCI.O  Nobel Learning Communities Inc  Q4 2009 Nobel Learning Communities Earnings Release

SFD  Smithfield Foods, Inc.  Q1 2010 Smithfield Foods Earnings Release

AHPI.O  Allied He  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Allied Healthcare Products Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FCEL.O  FuelCell Energy, Inc.  Q3 2009 FuelCell Energy Earnings Release

HAYZQ.PK  Hayes Lemmerz International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Hayes Lemmerz Intl, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

BELM.PK  Bell Microproducts Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Bell Microproducts, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PVFC.O  PVF Capital Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2009 PVF Capital Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MTMC.PK  MTM Technologies, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2010 Micros-To-MainFrames Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

IFNY.F  Infinity Energy Resources, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Infinity Energy Resources, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MCF  Contango Oil & Gas Co  (Tentative) Q4 2009 CONTANGO OIL & GAS COMPANY Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AMTC.O  Ameritrans Capital Corp  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Ameritrans Capital Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MIND.O  Mitcham Industries, Inc.  Q2 2010 Mitcham Industries Earnings Release

INNU.PK  Innuity, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Innuity, Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

VNBCQ.PK  Vineyard National Bancorp  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Vineyard National Bancorp Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CNU  Continucare Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Continucare Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HDY  Hyperdynamics Corporation  (Tentative) Q4 2008 HYPERDYNAMICS CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

GFCJ.PK  Guaranty Financial Corp (WI)  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Guaranty Financial Group Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PLNTQ.PK  Proliance International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Proliance Intl. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ELCO.PK  Elcom International, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 Elcom International Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

POLGE.OB  Polymer Group, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Polymer Group Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

RYSMF.OB  Royal Standard Minerals Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 ROYAL STD MINERALS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OUJA.DE  Samaritan Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 SAMARITAN PHARMACEUTICALS Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

EPIXE.OB  EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 EPIX Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ASTM.O  Aastrom Biosciences Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Aastrom Biosciences Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCLD.O  SteelCloud Inc  (Tentative) Q3 2009 SteelCloud Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

OMTL.PK  Omtool, Ltd.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 Omtool, Ltd. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PSMT.O  Pricesmart Inc  (Tentative) PriceSmart, Inc. August Sales Release - ESTIMATED

WALK.PK  The Walking Company Holdings, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 The Walking Company Holdings, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HDII.OB  Hypertension Diagnostics Inc  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Hypertension Diagnostics Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PLKH.BE  ProLink Holdings Corp.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 PROLINK HOLDINGS CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ALOY.O  Alloy, Inc.  Q2 2009 Alloy Earnings Release

BPURa.F  Biopure Corporation  (Tentative) Q3 2009 Biopure Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCMR.O  Sycamore Networks, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2009 Sycamore Networks Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

IMMR.O  Immersion Corp  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Immersion Corporation Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SCOXQ.PK  The SCO Group, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 The SCO Group Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AIRN.F  Airspan Networks Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Airspan Networks Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

HWEG.PK  Hemiwedge Industries, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Hemiwedge Industries, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

UFEN.BE  United Fuel & Energy Corporation  (Tentative) Q2 2009 UNITED FUEL & ENERGY CORP Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ABOQE.OB  Arbios Systems, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 ARBIOS SYS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

ACUS.DE  Acusphere, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 Acusphere Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

QSGQE.OB  QSGI Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 QSGI, Inc Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CYKN.F  Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 Cyberkinetics Neurotechnology Systems, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

FMP.F  Feldman Mall Properties, Inc.  (Tentative) Q3 2008 FELDMAN MALL PROPERTIES, INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CVBT.F  CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 CardioVascular BioTherapeutics, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

CBON.BE  Community Bancorp  (Tentative) Q4 2008 COMMUNITY BANCORP NEV Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

AVAV.O  AeroVironment, Inc.  Q1 2010 AeroVironment, Inc. Earnings Release

WWWW.O  Web.com Group, Inc  (Tentative) Q2 2009 Website Pros, Inc. Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

GLA  Clark Holdings Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 CLARK HLDGS INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

SMVE.PK  Smart Move, Inc.  (Tentative) Q4 2008 SMART MOVE INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

NSTR.PK  Northstar Neuroscience, Inc.  (Tentative) Q2 2009 NORTHSTAR NEUROSCIENCE INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

MMPQE.OB  Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc.  (Tentative) Q1 2009 MERUELO MADDUX PROPERTIES INC Earnings Release - ESTIMATED

PTN  Palatin Technologie Inc  Q4 2009 Palatin Technologies Earnings Release

Asia:

Most Asian stocks fell, led by banks in Japan, after central bank figures showed country's lending growth slowed. Technology and commodity companies advanced as computer memory prices and metal prices rose.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan's biggest publicly traded bank, sank 2.7 percent in Tokyo. Elpida Memory Inc., Japan's largest maker of dynamic random access memory, rose 2.5 percent after the benchmark price for chips climbed to the highest since August 2008. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, climbed 1.1 percent in Sydney after a metals gauge in London rose to a one-week high.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.1 percent to 114.33 as of 10:57 a.m. in Tokyo, with about eight stocks declining for every seven that rose. The gauge has climbed 62 percent from a more than five-year low on March 9 on speculation stimulus measures worldwide will revive the global economy.

"We're currently without a major catalyst to get the market moving," said Koichi Ogawa, chief portfolio manager at Daiwa SB Investments Ltd. in Tokyo, which manages the equivalent of $37 billion. "Valuations are no longer cheap."

Asian Markets Edge Up on M&A Fever

Hopes of more M&A activity and gains in European stocks kept Asian markets afloat early Tuesday, with most key markets in positive territory.

Gains in Japan were offset by declines in banking stocks. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group slid, pushing the broader Topix down 0.4 percent at one point, while the Nikkei 225 [JP;N225  10317.19    -3.75  (-0.04%)   ] was flat with a downside bias. JVC Kenwood was the star performer, surging over 20 percent on reports it would likely turn in a profit in July-September for the first time in three quarters.

Earnings optimism also lifted SK Energy shares in Seoul. The stock rallied more than 8 percent, helping boost the KOSPI [KR;KSPI  1615.97    7.40  (+0.46%)   ].

In Greater China, Taiwan markets took centerstage after the island's premier announced his resignation yesterday in a shock announcement over last month's deadly typhoon. The entire cabinet is now preparing to resign later in the week. The Taiwan Weighted index edged up 0.8 percent.

The Hang Seng Index opened 0.5 percent higher.

In Australia, Energy Metals shares surged, as a Chinese nuclear firm agreed to make a bid for up to 70% of the Australian uranium explorer. The S&P/ASX 200 climbed over 1 percent [AU;XJO  4507.3    52.90  (+1.19%)   ].

In south-east Asia, DBS shares slipped 0.9 percent. Media reports said India's Larsen & Toubro was in talks to buy a part of DBS's joint venture unit in the South Asian nation. The STI shed 0.6 percent, but Malaysia's KLCI rose 0.5 percent.


Nikkei 225 10,317.19     -3.75 ( - 0.04%).(07.54 AM IST)

Japan's Nikkei stock average was flat on Tuesday, buoyed by chip-related shares such as Advantest Corp (6857.T: Quote, Profile, Research), though gains were checked by falls in financials such as bank stocks.

The benchmark Nikkei .N225 gained 3.57 points to 10,324.51, while the broader Topix .TOPX lost 0.2 percent to 943.04.

NEC Corp. (6701) shares were directionless Tuesday morning, as investors appeared unimpressed by a Nikkei report the same day that the company has invested in Blade Network Technologies Inc., a U.S. manufacturer of high-speed network switches.

Shares in JVC Kenwood Holdings Inc. (6632) rebounded sharply Tuesday, surging 28.57% to hit 63 yen, as The Nikkei reported that same morning that the firm's operating profit will likely surpass its previous prediction of a 5 million yen profit for the July-September quarter. This swing back into the black marks the firm's first posted profit in three quarters.

Asian markets were slightly higher on Tuesday, helped by gains for European bourses. In Australia, gold miners were lifted as the spot gold price flirted with $1,000 per troy ounce. 


HSI 20747.74 +118.43 +0.57% (07.56 AM IST).

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index traded 0.2% higher at 20,662.23 in early action Tuesday, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises added 0.5% to 12,037.68. Shares of PetroChina Co. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:857 (HK:857 8.96, +0.09, +1.02%) were among the winners, up 1% in Hong Kong, and Jiangxi Copper Co. /quotes/comstock/22h!e:358 (HK:358 17.88, +0.18, +1.02%) adding 0.9%. But in mainland China, metals-related shares pressured the Shanghai Composite, which fell by 1.4%, with Wuhan Iron & Steel Co. losing 3.1%. 


SSE Composite  2873.35   -0.27.(07.58 AM IST).

Chinese stocks open 0.54% lower on Tue

Chinese stocks opened lower on Tuesday morning.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 2,865.7 points, down 0.54% or 15.42 points from the previous closing.

The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.75% or 87.2 points lower at 11,548.25 points.


Standard & Poor's downgrades Country Garden's ratings.

Compal to set up 5th notebook plant in mainland China in Q4.

China Eastern shareholders approve RMB 7-bln share sale plan.

Asia Standard International plans share consolidation.

Global economic outlook still gloomy, says UN report

The global economic outlook is still gloomy and no early recovery from the current recession can be expected, a United Nations report said on Monday.

Despite some "green shoots" of economic recovery, "the economic winter is far from over," said the Trade and Development Report 2009, released by the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

"Tumbling profits in the real economy, previous overinvestment in real estate and rising unemployment will continue to constrain private consumption and investment for the foreseeable future," said the report.

According to the report, the current crisis is unprecedented in depth and breadth, with virtually no economy left unscathed. Given this background, global economy is expected to fall by more than 2.5 percent in 2009.

Global economic growth may turn positive again in 2010, but it is unlikely to exceed 1.6 percent.

UNCTAD economists expect GDP in developed nations to contract by some 4 percent in 2009, and output in the transition economies to fall by more than 6 percent.

In developing countries, growth is expected to decelerate from 5.4 percent to 1.3 percent in 2009, implying a reduction of average per capita income.

But some developing and emerging-market economies have proved less vulnerable to the current crisis, notably those in East and South Asia, whose economic growth is expected to grow by 3-4 percent during 2009.

The leading economies in East and South Asia -- in particular China and India -- have resisted recessionary forces better than others because their domestic markets play a more important, and increasingly growing, role in total demand, the report said.

Moreover, the rebound in China in the second quarter of 2009 proves the efficacy of government deficit spending if it is applied quickly and forcefully, it added.

In the report, UNCTAD cited deregulation of financial markets as the main cause of the global financial and economic crisis. It also reiterated the need for more stringent financial regulation as well as the reform of the international monetary and financial system. 

Japan's current account surplus decreases 19.4% in July

Japan's current account surplus contracted 19.4 percent year-on-year to 1,265.6 billion yen (13.61billion U.S. dollars) in July, said the finance ministry in a preliminary report on Tuesday.

It was the first shrinkage in two months, which the ministry attributed mainly to a deficit expansion in the service account.

According to the report, the deficit in the service account, including payments in transport, tourism and royalties, increased by 28.9 percent to 288.3 billion yen (3.10 billion dollars).

Meanwhile, trade surplus in goods and services posted widened by 78.1 percent to 149.0 billion yen (1.60 billion dollars).

Exports shrank for the 10th straight month, down by 37.6 percent to 4,545.6 billion yen (48.88 billion dollars) while imports logged the second-largest contraction since record began in January 1986, sinking by 41.2 percent to 4,108.3 billion yen (44.18 billion dollars), said the report.

The current account balance, the broadest gauge of trade in goods, services, tourism and investment, is calculated by determining the difference between a nation's income from foreign sources and payments on foreign obligations, excluding net capital investment.

Gold briefly hits $1,000, may move higher

Front-month contract trades above six-month high on Globex

Gold futures climbed as high as $1,000 an ounce Tuesday -- marking the first time a front-month contract has reached the psychologically key level since late February.

New Health Proposal Emerges; Obama Tries to Reclaim Debate

A leading U.S. senator seeking to forge agreement on healthcare reform will put forward a plan that includes sweeping insurance market changes and a fee on companies that will help pay to cover the uninsured, a source familiar with the proposal said Monday.

Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus, a Democrat who leads a group of six senators trying to craft compromise legislation on President Barack Obama's top domestic priority, plans to discuss the proposal when the group meets Tuesday.

The source said the Baucus plan, reflecting negotiations by the group and circulated among them over the weekend, would cost less than $900 billion over 10 years.

It calls for non-profit cooperatives to compete with insurance companies but does not contain a new government-run health insurance plan—the "public option"—sought by many liberal Democrats and backed by Obama, the source said.

Fiscal, political and philosophical battles are raging over the reforms as critics question the cost during an economic crisis, insurance companies lobby hard against parts of the plan, Republicans stand fast against the Democratic president and conservative commentators warn of a socialist takeover of healthcare.

Saying "it's time to act," Obama sought to shore up support for his overhaul of the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare system in economically hard-hit Ohio Monday before a major address to Congress Wednesday.

"It's time to do what's right for America's working families and put aside partisanship, stop saying things that aren't true, come together as a nation, pass health insurance reform now— this year," he told a cheering crowd at a Labor Day picnic held by the AFL-CIO union coalition in Cincinnati.

With 46 million Americans without health coverage, Obama said, "A public option within that basket of insurance choices would help improve quality and bring down costs."

"I want a health insurance system that works as well for the American people as it does for the insurance industry. They should be free to make a profit. But they also have to be fair," he said.

With his poll numbers down from once-lofty heights, Obama's effort to reclaim control of the debate is seen as a key test of his leadership that could define his young presidency.

After a summer of sometimes bitter words, White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said Sunday that Obama will "draw some lines in the sand" in his speech Wednesday.

It was unclear whether the Baucus proposal will be enough to secure agreement on the Senate panel after the three Democrats and three Republicans, known as the "Gang of Six," struggled for months to forge a bipartisan agreement.

In recent weeks, Republican panel members Charles Grassley and Michael Enzi have voiced concerns about Obama's plans and legislation pending in the House of Representatives.

The third Republican negotiator, Olympia Snowe, has been much more supportive of the effort and the White House has reached out to her for possible compromise.

A spokesman for House Republican leader John Boehner said the Baucus plan, based on media reports, "would still include increased health insurance costs for the American people, cuts to Medicare without improvements in care, and some sort of government takeover of healthcare."

"We don't need a new backroom deal," said the spokesman, Michael Steel. "We need real, bipartisan reforms that lower costs and increase access."

Baucus said Friday he was prepared to move forward on legislation quickly in the Democratic-controlled Congress—with or without Republican support.

"I am committed to getting healthcare reform done—done soon and done right," he said in a statement.

The source said a new tax on insurance companies proposed by Baucus would raise about $6 billion a year and help pay for the reform plan.

The Senate panel had been looking at taxing some employer-provided health plans. But unions and Obama opposed that, prompting negotiators to look at the insurers fee.

Liberal Democrats have criticized the idea of non-profit cooperatives, saying they will not have enough clout to compete with big insurance companies, but the proposal could appeal to more moderate members of the party who represent rural states.

The source said the Baucus plan aimed to inject more competition into the insurance market and included transparency provisions that would make it difficult for companies to pass on the new fee to consumers. It also seeks to improve the quality of care and increase coverage of prevention and wellness programs, the source said.

The Senate Finance package, like bills passed by other panels in the Senate and House, would stop insurers from excluding people for pre-existing conditions or charging more because of health history.

It also would limit out-of-pocket expenses for patients, bar insurers from placing caps on benefits and expand the Medicaid program for the poor.

Without bipartisan agreement, Baucus will likely move a bill through his committee with just Democrats and possibly the support of Snowe, a moderate Republican from Maine, a state that backed Obama in last November's presidential election.

That also means Obama will have to unify his Democrats in the Senate, where 60 votes are needed from among the 100 members to pass controversial legislation.

Snowe's support might also help shore up backing from centrist Democrats who are wary about creating a new government healthcare program.

Snowe supports a compromise plan that would not initially include a public option but would "trigger" the creation of a government program if insurance companies failed to meet cost and quality benchmarks.


Tengzhong Wants GM's Hummer Despite Setback

Chinese machinery maker Tengzhong is still working to close a deal with General Motors to buy the U.S. automaker's Hummer brand after a regulatory setback, Chinese media reported on Monday.

GM is selling its Opel, Saab, Saturn and Hummer brands as well as closing down its 83-year-old Pontiac division as it strips back operations in the face of the sector's worst ever downturn.

China's Ministry of Commerce, which must approve the Hummer acquisition, had turned back the application because it was lacking detail, the Legal Evening News reported.

"We are still trying hard," an unnamed spokesman for Tengzhong was quoted as saying in response by China News Service.

The deal would mark the first major Chinese acquisition of a distressed U.S. auto asset during the current economic downturn.

Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery, a little-known firm based in land-locked southwest China, raised eyebrows when the deal for the premium off-road Hummer brand came to light three months ago.

It was not GM's only surprise move, however, with tiny Swedish super car maker Koenigsegg now in talks to buy Saab.

Swedish State Secretary Joran Hagglund told Reuters on Monday that Koenigsegg had presented a new plan for financing the deal.

German Economy Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg said on Monday he hoped GM's board would make a clear decision on the future of Opel when it meets on Tuesday.

The German government has come out strongly in favor of Canadian auto parts group Magna's bid for Opel.

Tengzhong's bid for Hummer requires approval in China from both the commerce ministry and the National Development and Reform Commission, a powerful planning agency.

The company's lack of experience in the car industry has stirred doubts, while state media said the Chinese government would likely harbor objections to taking over a gas-guzzling SUV.

Opposition has quietened down in recent weeks after China's commerce ministry sounded a more positive note on the deal, saying Tengzhong's move was normal for a company seeking to take advantage of the global downturn.

GM and Tengzhong have said they will not disclose the financial terms of the deal. 

Bankers familiar with the situation have said Hummer could fetch about $100 million in cash in addition to other commitments -- far less than the $500 million GM had expected Hummer to bring when it went on a sale in June 2008. 
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Indage Vintners: Where's The Champagne?

BSE 522059
 
Champagne producers agreed to pick 32% fewer grapes this year, leaving billions of grapes to rot on the ground, in a move to counter fizzling bubbly sales around the world amid the economic downturn.

The result of the slashed harvest and other reductions will be a 44% cut in the number of bottles produced this year by makers such as LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SA -- the world's biggest Champagne producer.The Champagne industry's governing body, the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne, estimates there are more than 1.2 billion spare bottles sitting in warehouses.


It is one of the starkest signs yet of how cutbacks in consumer spending are affecting this segment of the luxury-goods market. Grape growers and bottlers of the wine in the Champagne region of France haven't significantly cut the volume of usable grapes since 1955, when a bumper harvest was reduced.


Champagne buyers "are definitely being more price oriented," said Jill Pienta, assistant manager at Randolph Wine Cellars in Chicago. She said some of her customers were switching to cheaper, non-Champagne sparkling wines, such as Pierre Delize Blanc de Blancs, priced at $8 a bottle.


Global Champagne sales are expected to drop to as low as 260 million bottles this year from a high of 339 million bottles in 2007. In 2008, as the recession set in, sales slipped to 322 million bottles, the first decline since 2000.


As a result, producers -- who have so far resisted price cuts -- have been lobbying to lower global volumes of Champagne to avoid having to unload their full cellars of unsold bottles at bargain prices. The Champagne industry's governing body, the Comité Interprofessionnel du Vin de Champagne, estimates there are more than 1.2 billion spare bottles sitting in warehouses.


But the move is controversial. The French government as recently as last year had planned to expand the farmable land in Champagne -- the only region in the world where the name can be used -- because demand was expected to grow, especially from consumers in the U.S. and U.K.


The Champagne grape harvest is set to begin in the next two weeks. Independent growers in the region supply 90% of the fruit needed for bottlers. Harvest volume is decided each year by the governing body, a committee consisting of the grape growers and the bottlers. Until now, both groups have pushed pickings as high as possible. Grapes have been left on the vine in the past only when they were of inferior quality.


The committee decided the volume of grapes that can be picked this year will be 9,700 kilograms per hectare of land, compared to 14,200 kilograms per hectare allowed last year.

Also for the first time, only 82% of the harvested grapes will be bottled this year -- the rest will age in tanks for at least another year until the drop in sales stabilizes. The reductions will produce 44% fewer bottles of the wine this year.


"We're all affected" by the crisis, says Jean-Marie Barillère, the director of Champagne resources for Moët Hennessy. "When sales fell more than 20% below our projections, we had too much stock." LVMH, which owns brands including Moët et Chandon and Veuve Clicquot, said first-half sales of its wines and Champagne fell to €458 million, a 28% decline from the period last year.


Over the past few weeks, LVMH and other producers, including Lanson, had asked for a 50% cut in the volume of the grape harvest this year. But independent growers fought back hard. The growers say they resent suffering at the hands of what they call Champagne houses' overly ambitious sales expectations.


Bottles from this year's harvest won't be popped until they have aged for at least two years. Champagne from different years can also be blended in a standard bottle of bubbly. The last few years yielded record harvests -- 405 million bottles were produced last year -- which are now coming onto the market just as demand slumps.


To move more Champagne in a tough market, some wine distributors have been making "creative offerings" to restaurants, such as offering a discounted price if a certain amount is purchased, said Tim Kopec, wine director at Veritas, a high-end Manhattan restaurant with more than 3,000 wine choices. 


"These are wines that two years ago you had trouble even getting access to them, [and] now they are giving you incentives to buy three or four cases and get discounts." He said Champagne sales this year are roughly the same as last year at his restaurant.


(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 
--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Monday, September 7, 2009

Market Outlook 7th Sep 2009 & Weekly Outlook till 11th Sep

INTRADAY CALLS TODAY
Buy Hindzinc-788 with sl 777 for 818-823
Adlabs-354 above 360 with sl 348  and HOLD
{once traded above 360 for 5 min then only buy for huge up move}
Buy PRAJ-103 for 112 with sl 99

NIFTY FUTURES LEVELS
RESISTANCE
4724
4772
4821
SUPPORT
4686
4670
4619
4571
4523
4474
Buy R SYSTEMS INTL;TODAYS WRITING PRODUCT
 
Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:
Aban Off shore,  Orchid Chem, Bhushan Steel, Mphasis, Unitech Ltd, DCHL, ICSA, Ansal Infra, Orient Bank &  Praj Industry.
And this is list of 10 Weak futures:
India Cements, Tulip, Dr Reddy, Sesa Goa Ltd, Mtnl Ltd, KFA, MLL, BEL, Power Grid & Neyveli Lignite.
 Nifty is in Up trend
NIFTY FUTURES (F & O):  
Rally may continue up to 4722-4724 zone for time being.
Support at 4670 & 4686 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 4619-4621 zone and thereafter slide may continue u to 4571-4573 zone by non-stop.

Below 4523-4525 zone, expect panic up to 4474-4476 zone by non-stop.

On Positive Side, cross above 4770-4772 zone can take it up to 4819-4821 zone. Supply expected at around this zone and have caution.
 
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 4623.80 level, it can tumble up to 4092.20 level by non-stop.
SL triggered. 3 closes above 4623.80 level, expect short covering up to 4889.60 level by non-stop.
 
BSE SENSEX:  
Higher opening expected. Uptrend should continue. 
Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 14235 level on down side.
Maintain a Stop Loss at 15973 level for your short positions too.
 
INVESTMENT BUY:
Buy R SYSTEMS INTL (NSE Cash)
 
Uptrend may continue.
Mild sell-off up to 92 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 101 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 107 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 86 level for your long positions too.
 
Buy TODAYS WRITING PRODUCT (NSE Cash) 
Uptrend may continue.
Mild sell-off up to 36 level can be used to buy. If uptrend continues, then it may continue up to 40 level for time being. 

If crosses & sustains at above 42 level then uptrend may continue.

Keep a Stop Loss at 35 level for your long positions too.
 
Global Cues & Rupee  
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 9,441.27. Up by 96.66 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 1,016.40. Up by 13.16 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 2,018.78. Up by 35.58 points.
The partially convertible rupee INR=IN closed at 48.90/91 per dollar on Friday, stronger than Thursday's close of 48.92/93.
 
 Interesting findings on web:
Stocks jumped in light trading Friday after the government reported that the pace of job losses slowed in August to the lowest level in a year.
U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday as investors focused on the bright side of a mixed payrolls report that showed smaller-than-expected job cuts in August, although the unemployment rate hit a 26-year high.
However the report also showed that the ranks of the unemployed swelled to 9.7 percent, the highest level since June 1983.
"It was a very interesting reaction," said Randy Frederick, director of active trading at Charles Schwab. "It was almost as if the market didn't know whether to react positively to the payroll numbers or negatively to the unemployment rate. We've just got a lot of volatility with no conviction on direction," he said.
"Yes, the unemployment rate was a little worse than expected, but the wild card was the non-farm payrolls, which came out better than forecast," said Robert Francello, head of equity trading for Apex Capital in San Francisco.
"It's providing relief as we get near the close, and some people are covering shorts here before the long weekend."
Analysts viewed the jobs numbers, showing unemployment climbing to 9.7 percent with 216,000 jobs lost in August from 9.4 percent and a revised 276,000 jobs lost in July, as giving conflicting signals.
Most of them had expected 230,000 job losses and an unemployment rate of 9.5 per cent in August.
Briefing.com's Patrick O'Hare however called the August employment report "not good".
"There is nothing good about 216,000 jobs being lost," he commented.
With companies expected to slow down layoffs but not expand payrolls, the scenario does not bode well for consumer spending, a primary component of economic growth, analysts at Briefing.com said.
Unemployment is expected to hit 10% by the end of the year or early 2010, even as the economy is starting to recover. Although a jobs recovery typically lags a broader recovery, the rise in unemployment remains the market's biggest economic worry right now.
Without a healthier labor market and a burst in consumer spending, inventory rebuilding and fiscal and monetary stimulus are the main factors fueling a recovery.
"In the last few weeks, we've gone from pricing in a recovery to worrying about a double-dip recession in 2010 when all the stimulus money gives out," said Kleintop.
"The bulls let out a collective sigh of relief today, after the government's highly anticipated payrolls report wasn't as sour as expected," said Andrea Kramer at Schaeffer's Investment Research.
"Against this backdrop, the bulls won the battle for the session, but the bears won the war for the first week in three."
Barclays Capital analysts said the payrolls report, one of the best gauges of economic momentum, was a bit weaker than expected on balance, due to a rising unemployment rate and small downward revisions to previous months, but did not alter the outlook for recovery.
"While the labor market is still showing significant job losses, the August employment report showed a continued slowing in their pace, and we expect job growth to turn positive by year-end as the recovery becomes entrenched and businesses feel more comfortable hiring," said Barclays economist Dean Maki.
He added that the data could mean "the recovery is even stronger than we have forecast."
U.S. unemployment rate since August 2008
Month    Rate   Month    Rate
Aug   6.20%   Mar   8.50%
Sep   6.20%   Apr   8.90%
Oct   6.60%   May   9.40%
Nov   6.80%   Jun   9.50%
Dec   7.20%   Jul   9.40%
Jan    7.60%   Aug   9.70%
Feb    8.10%      
Changes in payrolls since August 2008
Month    Job chg.    Month    Job chg. 
Aug   -175,000   Mar   -652,000
Sep   -321,000   Apr   -519,000
Oct   -380,000   May   -303,000
Nov   -597,000   Jun   -463,000
Dec   -681,000   Jul   -276,000 (p)
Jan   741,000   Aug   -216,000 (p)
Feb   -681,000      
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The latest numbers brought total jobs lost since the recession began in December 2007 to 6.9 million, the biggest decline in any post-World War II economic slump.
Job losses peaked at 741,000 in January, the most since 1949.
Stock investors were also extra cautious ahead of a long Labor Day holiday weekend and the so-called September effect, reflecting the weakest month of the year in historical terms.
"Some caution until about the middle of the month makes sense in this extended market," said Al Goldman, chief market strategist of Wells Fargo Advisors.
The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI climbed 96.66 points, or 1.03 percent, to end at 9,441.27. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX gained 13.16 points, or 1.31 percent, to 1,016.40. It's best advance on the session before the Labour Day weekend since 1999. The Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC rose 35.58 points, or 1.79 percent, to close at 2,018.78. It's the first time in three days that the Nasdaq has been above 2,000.
All three major indexes ended in the red for the week after the big drop on Tuesday. The Dow declined 1.1%, the biggest weekly drop since the week of July 10. The S&P 500 fell 1.2% and the Nasdaq fell 0.5%.
For the week:
The Dow is down 102.93, or 1.1 percent.
The S&P is down 12.53, or 1.2 percent.
The Nasdaq down 9.99, or 0.5 percent.
For the year:
The Dow is up 664.88, or 7.6 percent.
The S&P is up 113.15, or 12.5 percent.
The Nasdaq is up 441.75, or 28.0 percent.
Twenty-eight of the 30 Dow stocks were higher Friday, along with 400 S&P 500 stocks and 97 stocks in the Nasdaq-100 Index ($NDX.X).
Gains were broad-based, with technology shares leading the charge. Semiconductor stocks rose after Intel Corp's (INTC.O) chief executive said aging personal computers and Microsoft's launch of Windows 7 will prompt companies to start spending on PCs next year.
American Airlines parent AMR (AMR) was up 2.7% to $5.64. Continental Airlines (CAL) was up 2.4% to $13.70.
Intel was up 1.1 percent at $19.64 and Microsoft (MSFT.O) closed at $$24.62, up 2.1 percent, both in Nasdaq trading.
The PHLX semiconductor index .SOXX rose 2.7 percent.
Select financial shares rose, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), US Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index added 1.4%.
A number of truckers, airlines and railroad shares rose, now that oil prices have come down off 10-month highs set last week. Fuel prices are directly linked to the profitability of transportation companies. The Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average gained 2%.
Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares rose ahead of its media event next week where it is expected to introduce iPod Nano and Touch models that include digital cameras. Investors are also wondering if CEO Steve Jobs, now back at work after a six-month medical leave, will make an appearance. Apple shares have nearly doubled this year.
Other big tech gainers included Microsoft, IBM, Cisco Systems,
Novellus (NVLS.O) rose 2.9 percent to $19.63 after the semiconductor manufacturing tool maker lifted its forecasts for the current quarter.
Leap Wireless [LEAP  18.02    0.63  (+3.62%)   ] continued to rally, making it one of the biggest percentage gainers on the Nasdaq 100, amid rumors this week that AT&T [T  25.51    0.36  (+1.43%)   ] might be looking to buy the wireless provider.
Abercrombie & Fitch shares [ANF  30.17    -0.81 (-2.61%)   ] skidded after Citigroup downgraded the stock to "sell" from "hold," saying the teen chain will continue to see same-store sales deteriorate as it hasn't managed the recession well.
Shares of memory chip developer Rambus Inc (RMBS.O) shot up 11.4 percent to $17.75 on Nasdaq on speculation that rival Samsung Electronics (005930.KS) would buy the company for $25 to $27.50 per share.
International Business Machines Corp (IBM.N) shares helped lead the Dow industrials' advance, rising 1 percent to $117.46 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Among financial stocks, shares of mortgage fund providers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose on news that they were back in compliance with New York Stock Exchange share listing rules, reinstating somewhat their respectability among investors.
Fannie Mae (FNM.N) gained 7.9 percent to $1.77 and Freddie Mac (FRE.N) rose 5.4 percent to $1.97.
Esterline Technologies , the maker of jet-engine parts, posted third-quarter profits that beat expectations and raised its forecast after good performances in its avionics and controls segment. Its shares closed 19.4 per cent higher at $36.41.
Microsoft and Caterpillar climbed at least 2.1%.
Among stocks in focus, General Electric climbed 3.12 percent to 13.87 dollars. Reports said that aircraft parts maker Moog was in talks with GE Aviation Systems to buy its flight control actuation product line in Britain.
Boeing rose 1.42 percent to 49.15 dollars after reports the Geneva-based World Trade Organization ruled its European-based rival benefited from illegal subsidies.
Clothing and sports goods maker Quiksilver slid 17.48 percent to 2.36 dollars after reporting a 53 percent drop in quarterly profits.
In corporate news, H&R Block (HRB) reported a first quarter adjusted loss of $0.39 per share, which was wider than the expected loss of $0.37 per share. Looking ahead, the company said it continues to expect its 2010 earnings in the range of $1.60 to $1.80 per share. Analysts foresee earnings of $1.65 per share.
Declines in payrolls for August were the smallest in a year, but the unemployment rate rose to a level not reached since June 1983, according to the Labor Department. Wall Street views a rebound in the labor market as a key component to an economic recovery.
Analysts said the reduced trading volumes before the U.S. Labor Day holiday weekend, with more investors taking the day off, added to volatility. Only 1.02 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, well below last year's estimated daily average of 1.49 billion.
On the Nasdaq, about 1.74 billion shares traded, also below last year's daily average of 2.28 billion.
About 7.3 billion shares changed hands on US exchanges, 22% less than the three-month daily average.
The CBOE's Vix index, known as Wall Street's "fear gauge", fell yesterday after rising towards a reading of 30 - its highest since mid-July - on Tuesday.
U.S. financial markets will be closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

Oil,Gold & Currencies:
Crude oil was little changed, falling 3USc in three days, amid a gain in U. equities and speculation that stockpiles are ample to meet demand in the world's biggest energy-consuming country.
A government report showed that crude and fuel supplies were above the five-year average.
Crude oil for October delivery rose 6USc to settle at $US68.02 a barrel in New York on light trading ahead of the holiday. Prices dropped 6.5% this week, the biggest drop since the week ended July 10.
Gold fell after touching a six-month high of $US999.50 on Thursday as investors locked in gains from bullion's rally toward $US1000 an ounce. Silver fell from a 13-month high.
Futures for December delivery slipped $US6.20, or 0.6%, to $US991.50 an ounce in New York, weekly jump of 3.4%. Bullion for immediate delivery fell 0.2% to $US990.30 an ounce in London.
The dollar and yen dropped against most of their major counterparts as investors switched to higher-yielding assets after US payroll losses slowed. And economic prospects improved.
The euro climbed against the dollar for a second day before a private report forecast to show European investor confidence rose to the highest level since July 2008, signaling the recession is easing in the euro-zone.
The euro also gained for a third day against the yen on prospects a German report will show the nation's factory orders rose in July for a fifth month, boosting demand for higher- yielding currencies. The yen fell against 14 of its 16 major counterparts as Asian stocks rallied on optimism the global slowdown is easing.
"The positive economic outlook is causing more risk taking, supporting the euro and commodity currencies, especially the Australian dollar," said Takashi Kudo, director of foreign- exchange sales in Tokyo at NTT SmartTrade Inc., a unit of Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. "Additional positive economic data would further enhance the trend. The euro may climb to near $1.44 today."
The euro strengthened to $1.4325 as of 11:04 a.m. in Tokyo from $1.4297 in New York on Sept. 4. It gained 0.3 percent to 133.39 yen. The dollar traded at 93.11 yen from 93.01.
Australia's dollar climbed to 85.16 U.S. cents from 85.07 cents. It earlier touched 85.38 U.S. cents, the highest since September 2008. Australia's currency advanced 0.2 percent to 79.31 yen.
Benchmark interest rates are as low as zero in the U.S. and 0.1 percent in Japan, compared with 3 percent in Australia and 2.5 percent in New Zealand, making the South Pacific nations' assets attractive to investors. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, was at 78.08 from 78.14.
Europe Sentiment
The euro strengthened as a Bloomberg News survey of economists showed an index measuring euro-region sentiment will rise to minus 13.7 this month from minus 17 in August. The Limburg, Germany-based Sentix research institute is set to report the index today.
The dollar fell against 12 of its 16 major counterparts as another survey showed German factory orders may have gained 2 percent in July after rising 4.5 percent in August. The Economy Ministry in Berlin will report the data today.
Australia's dollar advanced after Group of 20 officials including U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling and German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said in London on Sept. 5 that it was premature to quit emergency measures to fight the global recession, signaling central banks will hold down interest rates.
'Improved Outlook'
"With an improved outlook for growth and no early unwinding of stimulative policies, this should support investor risk appetite and hence global growth-sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar," John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy in Sydney at National Australia Bank Ltd., wrote in a research note today.
The yen weakened as improved U.S. jobs data triggered gains in Asian shares, encouraging investors to buy higher-yielding securities.
U.S. companies cut payrolls by 216,000 workers in August, fewer than economists had forecast and following a 276,000 reduction in July, Labor Department data showed on Sept. 4. The jobless rate rose to 9.7 percent from 9.4 percent.
"There's a sense the worst of the worldwide recession is over, with the equity market rebounding," said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Corp. in Tokyo. "From a risk-appetite perspective, the yen is likely to be sold."
Asian Stocks
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average climbed 1 percent, and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares rose 0.8 percent.
Losses in the yen may be limited today due to trading patterns during the Labor Day holiday in the U.S., said Tohru Sasaki, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at JPMorgan & Chase Co., citing charts prepared by the bank.
"While we are tempted to say that the market is likely to be range-bound because today is a U.S. holiday, the yen actually has a strong tendency to appreciate on the U.S. Labor Day holiday," Sasaki wrote in an e-mail to Bloomberg News today.
The yen has appreciated eight out of nine times since 2000 on Labor Day, Sasaki said.
Bonds:
The bond market fell. The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond rose to 3.442 percent from 3.328 percent Thursday and that on the 30-year bond climbed to 4.273 percent from 4.150 percent. Bond yield and prices move in opposite directions.
What to expect:
This week will start off slow with the Labor Day holiday, but will pick up as the week goes on with a few key data points, including the Fed's beige-book report and consumer sentiment.
MONDAY: All US markets closed for Labor Day
TUESDAY: 3-year auction; consumer credit
WEDNESDAY: Weekly mortgage applications; Fed's Evans speaks; 10-year auction; beige book
THURSDAY: International trade; weekly jobless claims; weekly crude inventories; 30-year auction; Nat Semi earnings
FRIDAY: import/export prices; consumer sentiment; wholesale trade; Treasury budget; Campbell Soup earnings
Asia:
Asian stocks rose for a third day, led by technology companies and automakers, as a $1.8 billion bid for Chartered Semiconductor Ltd. fueled merger speculation.
Chartered was halted from trading in Singapore. Toshiba Corp. climbed 3.9 percent in Tokyo after the Nikkei newspaper said the company will contract out production to cut costs. Canon Inc., which gets 28 percent of its sales from the Americas, gained 2.3 percent, while Toyota Motor Corp., the world's No.1 automaker, rose 1 percent after the U.S. government said companies had cut fewer jobs than estimated in August.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.6 percent to 113.43 as of 10:24 a.m. in Tokyo, taking a three-day advance to 0.9 percent. Stocks on the gauge are priced at 1.5 times book, lower than 2.1 times for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index in the U.S. and 1.6 times for Europe's Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index.
"Investors are focusing on the relative cheapness of equities," said Hiroichi Nishi, an equities manager at Tokyo- based Nikko Cordial Securities Inc.
Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.9 percent. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.3 percent. New Zealand's NZX 50 Index added 0.6 percent.
Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed. The stock gauge climbed 1.3 percent on Sept.4 after a Labor Department report showed U.S. companies cut fewer jobs last month than economists had estimated. The unemployment rate rose to 9.7 percent, the highest level in 26 years.
U.S. Jobs Report
Finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations concluded talks in London on Sept. 5, agreeing to rein in bank bonuses and force lenders to hold more capital to avoid a repeat of the global financial crisis.
Technology companies accounted for 15 percent of the MSCI Asia Pacific Index's gain today as Advanced Technology Investment Co., owned by the government of Abu Dhabi, said it plans to acquire Chartered Semiconductor for S$2.5 billion ($1.8 billion) in cash.
BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, the world's biggest and third-biggest mining companies, are considering a A$1 billion ($853 million) merger of their Canadian diamond operations, the Australian reported, without saying where it got the information. 

Rio Tinto gained 1.2 percent to A$55.89 in Sydney, while BHP was little changed at A$36.59.
Toshiba, Japan's largest chipmaker, climbed 3.9 percent to 484 yen. The company will contract out production of large-scale integrated circuits to overseas chipmakers as part of efforts to cut production costs, the Nikkei newspaper said. Keisuke Ohmori, a spokesman for Toshiba, said that no decision had been made.
Canon rose 2.3 percent to 3,550 yen. Toyota, which gets 31 percent of its revenue in North America, added 1 percent to 3,890 yen. 

Nikkei 225 10,290.78     +103.67 ( +1.02%) (08.27 AM IST).
Tokyo stocks rose Monday morning after a three-day losing streak as buybacks in hi-tech and other exporter shares were spurred by a stronger U.S. dollar and gains on Wall Street following mixed jobs data Friday.
Japan's Nikkei stock average climbed 1 percent on Monday as exporters such as Canon Inc (7751.T) rose, with investors focusing on the bright side of mixed U.S. jobs data and as the yen retreated against the dollar.
Advantest Corp (6857.T) and other chip-related shares gained, buoyed by broad buying of their U.S. peers after Intel Corp's (INTC.O) chief executive said ageing personal computers and Microsoft's launch of Windows 7 will prompt companies to start spending on PCs next year.
But the benchmark Nikkei was trapped in a narrow 35-point range with investors reluctant to trade, with U.S. markets closed on Monday for a holiday and ahead of the settlement of Nikkei futures and options on Friday.
The Nikkei was also helped by a positive start to Shanghai trading .SSEC, which market players said investors had been waiting for after China eased inbound investment rules on Friday. "There are expectations of a lot more investment in China, and if Asian markets recover, so does the Nikkei," said Noritsugu Hirakawa, a strategist at Okasan Securities. China announced new draft rules on Friday on inbound portfolio investments, increasing the amount some institutions can invest in the country's stock markets.
Shares in Toshiba Corp. (6502) ended their three-day retreat Monday, after The Nikkei reported the same day that the firm will outsource the fabrication of cutting-edge system chips for home electronics and other products to an overseas foundry starting next fiscal year.
Shares in Tokyo Dome Corp. (9681) retreated for the fourth straight trading day Monday, falling 7 yen to hit a five-month low of 269 yen. 

HSI 20590.82 +272.2 +1.34%. (08.30 AM IST).
Hang Seng Index opens 184 points higher on Mon
Hong Kong stocks rose on Monday morning, with the benchmark Hang Seng Index opening 184 points higher at 20,502.
The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index, which tracks the overall performance of 43 mainland Chinese state-owned enterprises on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, opened 120 points higher at 11,880.
Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd<601899><2899> increased 1.85% from the previous closing to HK$7.16. Zhaojin Mining Industry Co Ltd<1818> rose 1.62% and opened at HK$12.58.

Hong Kong shares climbed further Monday, encouraged by an advance in Shanghai and Friday gains on Wall Street, with Hong Kong-listed stocks of China Unicom Ltd. rising after the company and Spain's Telefonica SA /quotes/comstock/13*!tef/quotes/nls/tef (TEF 75.11, +1.03, +1.39%) announced plans to deepen their strategic relationship. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.7% to 20,466.17, while China's Shanghai Composite gained 1.2% to 2,897.29. Friday, the Hang Seng Index finished above 20,000 after Chinese regulators issued draft rules to raise quotas for investments by foreign institutional investors to $1 billion from $800 million. Shares of China Unicom climbed 1.9% on news of its $1 billion stock swap with Telefonica.

SSE Composite  2898.49  + 1.29.(08.32 AM IST)
Chinese stocks open 0.56% higher on Mon
Chinese stocks opened higher on Monday morning, tracking gains from the previous closing over the weekend.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index, which covers both A shares and B shares on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, opened at 2,877.62 points, up 0.56% or 16.01 points from the previous closing.
The Shenzhen Component Index on the smaller Shenzhen Stock Exchange opened 0.62% or 71.95 points higher at 11,591.63 points.

Nanjing to build LCD panel industry cluster in 5 years.
Yanlord Land's Chengdu project to open this year.
Agile Property acquires land use rights in Zhongshan.
China Oceanwide becomes 3rd largest shareholder of Legend Holdings.
Li Ka-shing to sell Seasons Villas in Shanghai.
Huayuan Property sells Beijing villas for RMB 430 mln.
PetroChina completes Singapore Petroleum buyout.

Banks to benefit from stricter stance
Banks should welcome the Chinese government's stricter stance on their capital base because it will benefit them although it will also affect their lending capacity, said a vice chairman of the regulatory body over the weekend.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission is soliciting opinions from commercial institutions, including the big state-owned lenders and joint stock banks, on the draft of a new calculation method on their capital base, Jiang Dingzhi, vice chairman of the CBRC, said at the China Bankers Forum 2009 in Shanghai on Saturday.
The regulator will fine tune the draft after analyzing the feedback, he said.
"Supervision on capital is core to our work," said Jiang. "The rule, which aims to improve the quality of banks' capital, will affect lending activity, but banks will reap fundamental benefits all the same."
A subordinated bond is one means for banks to expand capital. It has been a popular practice for Chinese banks to inflate their capital base by counting holdings of each other's subordinated debt as part of their capital base.
How much a bank can expand in credit is limited by its capital base, so more capital means more room for expansion.
The CBRC said last Thursday that it will take several years to phase out the holdings by banks of each other's subordinated bonds.
Chinese banks sold 236.7 billion yuan (US$34.66 billion) worth of subordinated bonds this year, almost tripling the amount issued last year, according to Bloomberg News.
Meanwhile, Su Ning, deputy governor of the People's Bank of China, the central bank, said at the forum that the country will use various policy instruments to adjust the growth in loans.
"We are studying the use of a variety of policy tools to adjust banks' lending activity," Su said, without elaborating.
Banks in China have lent 7.73 trillion yuan of loans in the first seven months of this year, a jump of 173 percent from a year ago. The new loans have already beaten the 5 trillion yuan target for 2009 that was set at the start of this year, causing worries over possible asset bubbles.
       
Japan's foreign reserves rise to new high in August
The finance ministry said Monday that Japan's foreign exchange reserves in August expanded by 19.68 billion U.S. dollars from the previous month to a new high of 1,042.34 billion dollars.
A rise in its holdings of special drawing rights at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) was a key factor behind the hike in the nation's foreign reserves, according to the ministry.
In December 2008, Japan's foreign reserves hit a record 1,030.65 billion dollars due to a rise in the value of its holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds and euro-denominated assets.
Japan's foreign exchange reserves, the world's second largest following China, consist mainly of securities and deposits denominated in foreign currencies, International Monetary Fund reserve positions, IMF special drawing rights and gold.

Limits up for QFII investors
China plans to raise the limits on inbound portfolio investments to bolster market sentiment and the renminbi's internationalization.
The upward limit for individual institutions' quotas under the qualified foreign institutional investor (QFII) program will be raised to $1 billion from $800 million under the draft rules and the lockup period for some investors will be cut to three months from one year, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said on Friday.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index soared 3 percent higher at close on Friday. The Shanghai stock exchange also closed higher by 0.6 percent.
"Although the total holdings of QFII investors amount to only a small fraction of the A-share market, these liberalizations (and potentially an accelerated pace of approvals) may signal official efforts to stabilize the domestic equity market," said Jing Ulrich, chairwoman of China Equities and Commodity at JP Morgan.
The Shanghai Composite has dropped 18 percent from its peak on Aug 8 following concerns that tighter capital requirements would curtail lending and derail a recovery.
"The draft rules are very encouraging for QFII. It is extremely good news for the QFIIs to invest in Chinese A shares market, which has undergone around 20 percent correction/fall in the last few weeks," Hubert Tse, managing director with International Business Group Yuan Tai PRC Attorneys.
"The changes will make it possible for large investors to channel more portfolio investments into China's capital markets," Tse said.
As of August, 87 qualified foreign institutional investors were permitted to invest a combined $15 billion in local-currency stocks and bonds.
However, the overall investment quota of $30 billion will remain intact, as less than $15 billion of that amount has been used so far, Chu Yumei, an official with SAFE, said.
SAFE also said it will shorten the lockup period for some medium- and long-term QFII funds such as pension funds and insurance funds to three months. Other QFII investors will still be subject to a one-year lockup.
The draft rules aim to encourage "medium- and long-term investment" and to make investment operation and risk control more "convenient", the currency regulator said.
"The new move is part of renminbi's internationalization," said Ha Jiming, chief economist, China International Capital Corp.
"The relaxed limitation on inbound portfolio investments could enhance cross-border circulation and raise efficiency. Looking ahead, the government might adopt measures to smooth the outflow of renminbi, to speed up its internationalization."

How and When Will the Global Crisis End?
Every year at this time, Ambrosetti holds a forum on the world, Europe and Italy. Since its beginnings in 1975, the forum has become widely regarded as one of the most important meetings worldwide.
Prominent leaders from all walks of life discuss economic and social issues facing the world. The panel I was asked to moderate focused on world economic growth and was called "How and When Will the Crisis End?"
Many people here see continued weakness for the world economy. A majority of the audience of European business people said the recovery won't likely start until 2010, and almost 40 percent believe it won't be until the second half of next year.
The optimist of the group was University of Chicago Professor and Nobel laureate Gary Becker, who, though worried about inflation, declared "the recession is over" and believes the recovery won't be as lethargic as some others are saying. He expects a slow recovery initially but says continued strong productivity will help the economy pick up steam and lead it out of the slump. He does not expect unemployment to reach the old peak of 10.8 percent reached in 1982.
The key issues for everyone on the panel were:
1) The world economy remains slow, and the nature of any recovery is still up for debate.
2) Emerging markets are a bright spot but not yet having a big enough impact.
3) The Fed's "exit strategy" as it unwinds stimulus efforts is critical. The wrong move has the potential to trigger a double-dip recession.
4) Structural issues remain. The recent euphoria over the recession ending and the banking system improving is actually dangerous because it has the potential to stop current momentum to reform the financial system.
Notes from the Participants
Here are highlights from what the individual participants had to say:
Gary Becker, University of Chicago and Nobel Laureate: An Optimist Outlook
Does not believe the recovery will be as bad as some expect
A flexible economy is critical.
The U.S. will emerge first on the global stage because of its ability to create different jobs and to be more flexible. This is what has hampered some European nations' ability to grow.
Education is critical. Today, 60 percent of degrees for higher education all over the world, even in Iran, are being given to women; men are dropping. Competition in education is important.
Arcady Dvorkovich, Aide to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev: A Reflective Tone
"We waited too long to make decisions that could have slowed or stopped the crisis in Russia. We were extremely slow."
The economy is down 10 percent this year, but Russia is ready to discuss exit strategies now.
People are tired of living in a panic. Russia feels better than a year ago (particularly with oil up from its lows).
Russia will work to be more efficient and stay open to innovation.
The agreement between Presidents Obama and Medvedev was very significant. Foreign policies are just as important as economic policies to global growth.
Nouriel Roubini, New York University Professor and Noted Economist: A Cautionary Approach
"After much stimulus bailout and a bazooka, the U.S. and the U.K. still face significant imbalances and challenges. The green shoots look more like yellow weeds to me."
Roubini worries about sustained high unemployment, weak industrial production, too much supply in housing, and a continued mindset that the economy is weak, which will tend to keep pushing the savings rate higher among consumers. On housing, even if we stopped building new homes today, it would take a year at least to get rid of the supply, so prices are likely to keep falling.
There are "many elements of fragility, which tells me the recession won't be over at least until year end, and it's not over yet."
The financial sector is still weak, unemployment will get worse and consumers are shopped out around the world, especially in places like Spain, where unemployment is 20 percent, Ireland and Iceland. The "over savers" China, Japan, and Germany are also not stimulating demand.
Believes there is a risk of a double-dip recession because of the very fragile position the Fed finds itself in. Unwinding the significant stimulus policies will be difficult and require courage. Fiscal and monetary policies will have to be changed. That means higher taxes for not just the rich but middle class as well, lower spending, and the mopping up of liquidity in the form of higher interest rates. All of this probably needs to take place during still uncertain economic times when unemployment will be high. This will be tough.
Commodities are rising; higher prices for raw materials also adds to the upset.
The good news is that emerging economies are growing. Brazil and China are more robust, but these will not be enough to rescue the world. China, while growing at about 8 percent, has a GDP of $3 trillion versus $13 trillion for the U.S. That's too small in the scheme of things to rescue the still troubled West.
Jean-Paul Fitoussi, A Leading Economist in France and Advisor to French President Nicolas Sarcozy: Status-Quo View
I asked him if we should read much into the recent growth in France. He said after several quarters of sharp contraction, three tenths of a percent growth doesn't say much. He did not seem to suggest France was any further along than it has been during this global upset.
Cheng Siwei, A leading Economic Voice in China: A Prudent Optimist
He called himself a "prudent optimist" but said not to expect China to bail out the world and to please not exaggerate China's role. He said to remember that China is only 6 percent of the world's economy and 15 percent of world growth. So he agreed with Nouriel Roubini that we need more than China and the emerging markets for this recovery to get traction. He said he expects a world recovery by the end of 2010 and believes China can grow 8 percent this year.
Mideast Panel
While at the conference I stopped to take in the Mideast Panel. It was remarkable to watch the body language of Shimon Peres and Amre Mousa. It seemed they could not even look at each other when they discussed differences between Israelis and Palestinians. Each one got up and went to the podium to speak.
Here are some of their comments:
Shimon Peres, President of Israel
Israel has decided to make peace on the basis of two states, an Israeli state and a Palestinian state.
Iran is a nuclear nation and has called for the destruction of Israel.
Peace and education bring economic vitality. "We must respect each other."
Amre Mousa, Secretary General, League of Arab States
There is new evidence of a new situation. A new U.S. President who was welcomed by the world, President Obama spoke about change and he was right. He called for nuclear disarmament. "We were impressed that one of his first decisions was to reach out to the Middle East."
The Arab League has put a commitment of peace on the table since 2002. "We called on Israel to do the same."
Asked what will happen to the 1.5 million Arabs — Muslims and Christians — that live in the state of Israel if it's called the Jewish State of Israel? Now Gaza, this small strip of land lives under siege.
In listening to the attendees here at the Ambrosetti conference, one thing is clear: There is still much debate over how and when the global crisis will end, and all eyes are focused dead-ahead looking for clearer signs of what's to come. Most seem to agree, however, that the situation will be better when this forum reconvenes at this same time next year.
Too much debt remains a big problem, Hoenig says
Fed must be 'resolute' in raising rates, reducing excess money
The U.S. economy appears to be reviving from a nasty recession, but too little has been done to resolve the underlying problem of too much debt, a Federal Reserve official says.
In a speech given a month ago, but released to the public on Saturday, Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig said massive amounts of public and private debt are putting tremendous pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates low, potentially sowing the seeds of inflation or further economic imbalances.
Hoenig, considered one of the Fed's leading advocates for low-inflation policies, said the Fed has tried too hard to boost growth in the past by keeping rates low. But low rates only encouraged more debt, and fueled an increase in the money supply that has eroded purchasing power.
Sustainable growth can't be achieved that way, he said.
The federal government has taken on much more debt in an effort to stimulate the economy, he said. Consumer debt remains bloated. And the biggest banks are still overleveraged by about $5 trillion, he said.
The way out of the swamp will be tricky, he said.
"As we become more confident that we are at the bottom of the recession and are moving into recovery, we must become more resolute in systematically reducing our balance sheet and raising interest rates," Hoenig told the annual meeting of the Kansas Bankers Association on Aug. 6. Read his speech.
Hoenig will be a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee in 2010.
The Fed can't rush to raise rates or to pull back on its credit-easing policies, he said. "I suspect we are going to recover slowly," he said. "We are going to be walking the 'knife's edge' for some time to come."
The biggest banks still pose large risks to the economy, he said. The top 20 banks have now been given an explicit government backing because they are too big to fail. Yet those banks hold a smaller capital reserve than community banks that have no guarantee, he said.
Since 1990, the largest banks have increased their asset share from 35% to more than 70%, encouraged by bank deregulation legislation.
The biggest banks are no longer market-driven institutions, but public utilities, Hoenig said. "This has to change or we will not retain the dynamic financial system that has made the United States so successful."
Obama to appoint Ron Bloom as manufacturing adviser
President Barack Obama plans to appoint auto task-force member Ron Bloom as senior counselor for manufacturing in a move to help revamp the sector, reports said Sunday. 

G-20 Leaders May Curb Banker Pay, Profit at Pittsburgh Summit
 
INVESTMENT VIEW
Tata Steel: Firmness In Long Steel Price Shows Underlying Firm Demand
 
The firmness that we are witnessing in Secondary prices across India over last few days may have a fundamental reason.
The govt has changed the mechanism of charging the royality on iron ore produced from leased mines from fixed Rs 27/t to 10% of iron-ore prices wef 13th aug09. At current iron-ore prices ex-Barbil @ Rs 3150/t, this works out to Rs 315/t. After considering yield, the net impact of this on producing sponge iron will be in the region of Rs 600-700/t.
 
Further, the unauthorized mines in Barbil region have been ordered to shutdown leading to a shortage and near panic situation amongst people connected with that business/trade. 

This is a big change...and well may be the trigger for any recovery in rebar prices. Sponge iron prices have already reacted witnessing a jump of Rs 1000/t over last one week in Durgapur belt triggering a similar rise in ingot and rebar prices. The cascading effect can be felt elsewhere too.

(Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.)
 
 FII DATA
FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
FII 04-Sep-2009 1912.07 2311.99 -399.92
DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category Date Buy Value Sell Value Net Value
DII 04-Sep-2009 986.9 992.25 -5.35
 
 SPOTL LEVELS FOR TODAY
NSE Nifty Index   4680.40 ( 1.89 %) 86.85       
  1 2 3
Resistance 4724.95 4769.50   4841.80  
Support 4608.10 4535.80 4491.25

BSE Sensex  15689.12 ( 1.89 %) 290.79     
  1 2 3
Resistance 15833.65 15978.19 16215.54
Support 15451.76 15214.41 15069.87
 Index Outlook — Market shackled in a range


Sensex (15,689.1)

It was a somnolent week for Indian equities. The Sensex appeared almost spineless in the first four sessions; making a feeble attempt to rise in the morning only to collapse towards the end.

Friday afternoon was, however, different and the Sensex closed the week with a flourish, reducing the weekly loss to just 1.5 per cent.

Wavering global markets and mixed economic news can be held responsible for this state of flux.

Most large-cap stocks meandered sideways and action in mid- and small-caps too was relatively muted.

Volume in the cash segment is dwindling while the derivative section continues to witness robust turnover indicating a mark-up in speculative activity in the market. FIIs were net sellers last week even as domestic institutions lapped up stocks. .

The Sensex went in to gentle decline to the week's low of 15,356 before Friday's turnaround. It has been one-week-up and one-week-down for the Sensex since the last week of July.

Weekly momentum indicators are displaying negative divergence but are still poised in the bullish zone. The 10-week ROC's needs to decline in to negative zone to indicate that the medium-term trend is cracking.

Oscillators in the daily chart are also signalling weakness.

There is no alteration in our medium and intermediate term view. The trend along both time frames are currently up, if we apply conventional trend-following tools. This makes initiating short positions a dangerous proposition.

But the fact that the Sensex is nearing the key intermediate-term resistance level of 16,200 and sagging momentum in medium-term chart call for an overdose of caution.

If we extrapolate the target of the next wave up in the current medium-term up-trend, the target would fall between 16,100 and 16,400. If this level is crossed, the next target zone lies between 17,400 and 17,800.

Confluence of targets in the band between 16,000 and 16,500 makes it a very potent resistance zone that can be hard to overcome just yet.

The short-term trend remains indecisive and traders ought to go on that much-postponed break until the index moves out of the range between 14,700 and 16,000. Short-term targets above 16,000 are 16,143, 16,402 and 16,630.

Short-term supports are at 15,321 and 15,171.

Nifty (4,680.4)


Nifty recorded an intra-week low of 4,576 before reversing higher. If we consider the target of the fifth wave from the March low of 2,539, next target for the Nifty is 4,740.

Fibonacci retracement of the decline from January 2008 peak gives us the next resistance for this rally is at 4,900.

In other words, the next 200 points in the Nifty are critical from a long-term perspective and an intermediate term peak is possible here.

Sagging momentum on daily and weekly charts support this view.

There can, however, be a rally to 4,740 once again in the near-term.

If the index closes above this level, next targets are 4,821, 4,855 and finally 4,900. Short-term supports are at 4,548, 4,500 and 4,353.

Global Cues

The sharp jerk-down on Tuesday has made most benchmark indices more vulnerable than they were towards the end of last week though Friday's fight-back has salvaged the situation to some extent.

It is, however, too soon to gauge if it is just a short-term pull-back or protracted medium-term down-trend.

CBOE volatility index spiked to 29.5, a level not witnessed over the last two months. But it receded in the last two sessions to end at 25.

Dow Jones Industrial Average declined to an intra-week low of 9,253 before staging a reversal. The recovery needs to progress beyond 9,500 to indicate resumption of the up-trend. The medium-term trend in this index continues to be up and a strong close below 9,000 would be the early signal of a reversal. The week ahead is critical for determining the medium-term trajectory for this index.

Asian indices too were treading water last week without making any headway. Shanghai Composite gave a scare by collapsing below the key support at 2,800 in the early part of the week, but it recovered thereafter to close at 2,861. Short-term resistance that needs to be surpassed in this index is at 2,950 and 3,000.

Pivotals — Reliance (Rs 1,980.9)


RIL slid gently in the first four sessions of the week to the intra-week low of Rs 1,924 before reversing on Friday afternoon to reduce the weekly loss to 4 per cent. The short-term trend, however, continues to be indecisive since the stock has not yet broken out of the trading range between Rs 1,900 and Rs 2,100. Break-out above Rs 2,100 will take RIL to the next target of Rs 2,200.

As we have been reiterating, the medium-term view remains one of caution as long as the stock trades below Rs 2,200. Decline below Rs 1,900 will imply the onset of the third leg of the down-move from the May 19 peak that has the targets of Rs 1,708 or Rs 1,530.

State Bank of India (Rs 1,763.9)


SBI continued to be traders' nightmare, trudging in an extremely narrow range between Rs 1,710 and Rs 1,780 last week. This is the third week in which a doji was formed in the weekly candlestick chart indicating that market participants are absolutely clueless about the future direction of this stock. We maintain the short-term range between Rs 1,650 and Rs 1,900 for SBI and traders would do well to stay away from this counter as long as it remains within this zone.

SBI has key intermediate-term resistance in the band between Rs 1,800 and Rs 1,900 and once the stock move above this zone; it can attempt to move towards its previous high again. The tentative movement over the last four weeks appears to be a period in which the stock garners strength before attempting a break-out. Investors with a medium-term perspective should hold with a stop at Rs 1,500.

Tata Steel (Rs 430.1)


Tata Steel did very little last week and ended with marginal 2 per cent loss. Key short-term supports for the stock are at Rs 410 and Rs 392. Short-term traders can hold with a stop at Rs 390. There can be a pull-back in the near term that takes the stock higher to Rs 440 or Rs 460. Reversal from either of these levels will be the cue for traders to initiate fresh short positions. Downward targets are Rs 393 and Rs 380.

The medium-term trend in Tata Steel continues to be positive. Target on a break above Rs 500 is Rs 570 and Rs 650. A close below Rs 375 is needed to mitigate the positive medium-term outlook for this stock.

Infosys (Rs 2,200.3)


Infosys was also stuck in a narrow range between Rs 2,120 and Rs 2,200 last week. The trend along all time frames: short, medium and long are up. Short-term traders can buy the stock on declines with a stop at Rs 2,100.

Short-term targets for the stock are Rs 2,286 and Rs 2,388.

The medium-term view stays positive as long as the stock holds above Rs 1,950. Immediate medium-term target for the stock is its former peak at Rs 2,439.

ONGC (Rs 1,177.7)

ONGC moved in a wafer-thin range between Rs 1,140 and Rs 1,200 last week and what is more, it has been stuck in this range over the last three weeks. We maintain that the target on a break above the upper boundary is Rs 1,356. Supports stay at Rs 1,100 and Rs 1,070.

Maruti Suzuki (Rs 1,546.6)


MSIL moved to the upper boundary of its short-term trading range to record a new high at Rs 1569.9 last week. The chart of Maruti is the strongest among the pivotals.

The structural up-trend appears to have resumed in this stock. The long-term trend will stay positive as long as the stock stays above Rs 1,248. Long-term targets for the third leg of this structural up-trend are Rs 1,875 and Rs 2,200. Investors should therefore utilise declines to buy the stock with a stop at Rs 1,350.

Undertone remains bullish in Nifty futures


Critical factors

Nifty Futures closed at premium.

Open interest jumps to 2.77 crore shares.

Stock-specific action was concentrated in momentum counters.

The volatility index ended marginally lower at 32.51 points.


Thanks to a strong show on Friday, the Nifty futures recovered most of the losses suffered earlier during the week. It closed with a premium of 15 points at 4,695.6 levels against the Nifty spot close at 4,680.4.

It however, witnessed a loss of 0.89 per cent from its previous week's close.

The week also saw the Nifty Futures swing between premium and discount with respect to the spot close. In terms of market-wide open interest, though there was an increase on a weekly basis, the addition wasn't smooth as some traders chose to cut positions when the market fell sharply.

Overall, the Nifty futures' open interest jumped to 2.77 crore shares over the previous week's 2.43 crore shares.

As far stock-specific action goes, the attention was mainly centered on momentum players such as IFCI, Unitech, HDIL, Suzlon, Reliance Capital and Aban Offshore. Interestingly, even in the options segment, these counters captured the traders' interest.

Follow-up

We had presented two strategies last week

Consider going long with a stop-loss at 4,635. Nifty futures would have hit our stop-loss. Another strategy was a bull call spread. In this we had advised traders to sell 5,000 Nifty call and buy 4,700 Nifty call.

This strategy currently remains in the neutral zone. Traders can, however, continue to hold this position as we expect the Nifty to break out on the upper side.

Option monitor

Trading in options present a mixed view.

Among the options, 4,800 call options saw higher accumulation, indicating the emergence of call writers, signifying Nifty could find strong resistance around 4,800.

In contrast, put writers have also emerged at 4,600 and 4,500 levels.

This points that these levels could act as a major support base for Nifty.

The 5,200 call options of October were the most active, indicating that traders could be expecting the Nifty futures to touch 5,200 by Diwali.

The volatility index, which climbed above 70-points during intra-day, ended marginally lower at 32.51 points against the previous week's close of 33.27.

The drop in volatility index suggests strength in the Friday current rally.

Recommendation

We recommend the following strategies for readers

Consider going long on the Nifty futures with a stop-loss at 4,575. The stop-loss can be adjusted suitably to protect profits.

Buy 4,700 Nifty call, which closed at Rs 130.7 on Friday.

FII trend

The cumulative FII positions as a percentage of the total gross market position on the derivative segment as on September 4 increased to 35.78 per cent (37.84 per cent). They were mainly sellers all through the week, particularly on index futures and index options.

Their index futures holding increased to Rs 14,150.87 crore (Rs 10,988.19 crore) and stock futures to Rs 21,251.4 crore (Rs 19,426.09 crore).

Index options holding also increased to Rs 24,210.12 crore (Rs 21,323.99 crore).

 

DOES SENSEX REACHING 18000 or 21000 means that ALL STOCKS WILL REACH THE PREVIOUS LEVEL ?

I read many queries on few forums where one frequent question of the
investors is WHEN WILL SENSEX REACH 21000? They ask this question
because many have purchased stocks in DECEMBER 2007 when the sensex
was at 21000, and now since they are stuck with the stock at a very
high price they quickly want the sensex to reach 21000 so that they
can sell their stock at 21000 level. However, If the sensex reaches
21000 againn in 3 to 4 years will it mean all the stocks will reach
their previous high level of DECEMBER 2007 when sensex was at 21000.
Lets examine with facts and figures.


                       24.3. 2008      27.7.2009      RISE/ FALLin %

SENSEX           15289            15300             NIL

BHEL                1872             2261               +20.8%

INFOSYS           1360            2028               +49%

IOB                    126             90                   --28.6%

SBI                    1644           1711                +4%

TATAMOTORS   663             374                  --43.6%

       It is clear from the above table that though the sensex was at
15300 in 24.3.08 and 27.7.09, however individual stocks were not at
the same level in MARCH 2008 and JULY 2009. Infact while some such as
tata motors and IOB have fallen by 43.6 % and 28.6%, some such as
INFOSYS and BHEL have risen by 49% and 20.8%.

CONCLUSION  : Though some such as equitymas... are shouting from
rooftops that sensex will reach 21000 by june 2009 , even if sensex
reaches DECEMBER 2007 level of 21000 in 2,3 or 4 years it doesnt mean
that all stocks will reach their 21000 high level, while some may even
surpass their 21000 high level some will even be much lower than their
previous 21000 level.
Dont wait for 18000 or 21000 to take a decision about your stock.Take
individual stock specific decisions.Dont get influenced and confused
by this propoganda of 21000 in 6 months or 40000 in 7 years by morgan
s, as 21000 or 40000 doesnt mean that all stocks will regain their
past 21000 levels.
NOTE : Abovementioned table is only for illustrative purpose and is
not to be construed as investment advice.

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381