Market Outlook for 30.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Jindal Steel & Power reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 27.29% yoy to Rs. 17.91 bn and net profit increased 1.91% yoy to Rs. 3.25 bn. (BS)
GAIL will borrow USD 134 mn from Export Credit Agency to fund truncated capital expenditure planned for 2009-10 fiscal. (BS)
Tata Motors has bagged contracts worth Rs. 22 bn for supply and maintenance of low-floor buses from the Delhi Transport Corporation. (BS)

Economic and Political Headline
Inflation stood at 5.64% for the week ended January 17, 2009, as compared to 5.6% in the previous week. (ET)
Bank lending has drop by 0.5% during the 14 days ending January 16, 2009, the lending stood at Rs. 138.37 bn against 144.69 bn in the earlier fortnight. The deposits grew by 0.3% to Rs. 36,300.79 bn in the fortnight and 20% on a yoy basis. (BS)
As per the US government data, purchases of new houses fell a record 38% yoy to 482,000 and orders for durable goods slumped 5.7% yoy in FY 2008. Moreover, sales of new homes fell to an annual pace of 331,000, the median price of a new home decreased 9.3%, and orders for durable goods fell 2.6% in December and the number of Americans collecting jobless benefits soared to a record 4.8 mn in the week ended January 17. (Bloomberg)


NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Below 2763-2765 zone, selling may continue up to 2726-2728 zone by non-stop.
Hurdles at 2806 & 2810 levels. Above these levels, expect short covering up to 2847-2849 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2884-2886 zone
Above 2921-2923 zone, it can zoom up to multiple resistance zones of 2958-2960 zone & 2983-2985 zone and supply expected at around these zones.
On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2689-2691 zone. Stop Loss at 2664-2666 zone.

Short-Term Investors:
Bullish Trend. 3 closes above 2630 level, it can zoom up to 3065 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
If start moves up then offload your positions. Bulls got trapped.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9910 level on upper side.
On Negative Side, corrections up to 8951 level can be used to buy. Maintain a Stop Loss at 8632 level for your long positions too.

Trading Calls 30th Jan 2009

+ve Sector/Scripts : Pharma, BOB, AxisBank

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy Infosys-1310 for 1365 with sl 1290 [Trading]

Buy AuroPharma-170 for 178 with sl 168

Buy HDFC-1530 for 1560 with sl 1517

Buy DrReddy-453 for 493 with sl 445 [Breakout]

Buy ACC-503 for 520 with sl 496

Buy GSFC-87 for 105 with sl 84 [positional]

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
UTV Soft, Ultra Cem, Wipro, Voltas, Wel Guj, Uni Phos, Polaris Wockhard, Biocon & Zeel.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Satyam Comp, Aban, DLF, Punj Lloyd, Divis Lab, Gitanjali, Mah Life, NDTV, Cummins Ind & Jindal Saw.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,149.01. Down by 226.44 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 845.14. Down by 28.95 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,507.84. Down by 50.50 points.
The partially convertible rupee closed at 48.975/985 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 48.93/94.
Avoid Short Selling in HEALTHCARE Stocks

+ve to Market : 1. Satyam's takeover issue 4. Reduction expected petrol/diesel price 5. Expected RBI rate cuts in coming days 6. Expected Inflation below 5%

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. RBI's projection on GDP 9. Global meltdown in employment 10. Cost cutting measures in various sectors through exmployment 11. US Market 12. SGX nifty 13. Asian Market

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2823.95	( -0.90 %)	-25.55
		1	2	3
Resistance		2866.75	2909.55	2945.25
Support		2788.25	2752.55	2709.75

	9236.28		( -0.23 %)	-21.19
			1	2	3
Resistance			9355.65	9475.03	9570.37
Support			9140.93	9045.59	8926.21

FII DATA

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	29-Jan-2009	2066.04	2150.68	-84.64

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	29-Jan-2009	1529.16	949.05	580.11

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 29.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Tata Steel reported Q3'09 results; total revenue decreased 3.9% yoy to Rs. 47.36 bn and net profit declined 56.4% yoy to Rs. 4.66 bn. (ET)
ONGC reported Q3'09 results; total revenue decreased 14.6% yoy to Rs. 136.57 bn and net profit declined 43.3% yoy to Rs. 24.75 bn. (BS)
Reliance Power has bagged its third 4,000 MW Ultra Mega Power Project, at Tilaiya, in Jharkhand. (ET)

Economic and Political Headline
The government has cut the prices of petrol by Rs. 5 a litre, diesel by Rs. 2 per litre, and the domestic LPG rate by Rs. 25 per cylinder effective from January 29, 2009. (BS)
The IMF has said that the global economy will slow down nearly to zero this year as more than USD 2 tn of bad assets in the US forcing the economies from Russia to the UK to sink. (Bloomberg)
The US House is preparing to approve President Barack Obama's proposed USD 816 bn economic stimulus package aimed at wresting the economy out of recession through a combination of tax cuts and USD 604 bn in spending. (Bloomberg)

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures:
TV-18,Power Grid,Auro Pharma,Balram Chini,Polaris,Ultra Cemco,Cairn,Gt Offshore,NTPC & Renuka.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Satyam Comp,Aban,Divis Lab,PunjLloyd,EKC,Rolta,IVRCL Infra,DLF,Wel Guj & Gitanjali.
Nifty is in Up Trend.

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2848 & 2864 levels, rally may continue up to 2891-2893 zone by non-stop.
Support at 2826 & 2837 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 2797-2799 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2770-2772 zone by non-stop.
Below 2726-2728 zone, expect panic up to 2699-2701 zone and buying can be done at around this zone. Stop Loss at 2628-2630 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2917-2919 zone it can zoom up to 2935-2937 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
Traders can expect rally further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bullish and target at around 9910 level on upper side.
On Negative Side, corrections up to 8951 level can be used to buy. Maintain a Stop Loss at 8632 level for your long positions too.

Trading Calls 29th Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy BHEL-1398 for 1428-1440 with sl 1380 [Trading]

Buy TITAN-945 for 990 with sl 930

Short BPCL-378 for 362 with sl 383

Buy ACC-497 for 520 with sl 492 [Breakout]

+ve to Market : 1. US Market 2. SGX nifty 3. Satyam Issue 4. Reduction expected petrol/diesel price 5. Expected RBI rate cuts in coming days 6. Expected Inflation below 5%

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. RBI's projection on GDP 9. Global meltdown in employment 10. Cost cutting measures in various sectors through exmployment 11. Steel major take a hit in Q3.

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,375.45. Up by 200.72 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 874.09. Up by 28.38 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,558.34. Up by 53.44 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> closed at 48.93/94 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Tuesday's close of 48.94/95.
SENSEX Stocks May Zoom

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR TODAY

	2849.50	( 2.82 %)	78.15
		1	2	3
Resistance		2881.40	2913.30	2971.20
Support		2791.60	2733.70	2701.80

	9257.47		( 2.81 %)	253.39
			1	2	3
Resistance			9334.21	9410.96	9551.16
Support			9117.26	8977.06	8900.31

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	28-Jan-2009	1539.53	1756.85	-217.32

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	28-Jan-2009	1259.91	658.03	601.88

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 28.01.09

Headlines for the day
Corporate News Headline
Godrej Industries reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 20% yoy to Rs. 7.93 bn however, net profit declined 81% yoy to Rs. 50 mn. (BS)
The Department of Telecom appointed Mumbai-based auditor Parekh & Co to scrutinise the accounts of Reliance Communications and its subsidiaries under a special audit to ascertain if there is any violation of revenue reporting norms to avoid payment of licence fees. (BS)
Maruti Suzuki has raised the prices of some of its vehicles by Rs. 5,000 to Rs. 10,000 due to increased input costs and foreign currency changes. (ET)

Economic and Political Headline
The RBI said that the central government's fiscal deficit would shoot up from the earlier estimate of 2.5% to 5.9% of the value of the country's total economic output translating into a deficit escalation from Rs. 1,503.1 bn to Rs. 3,547.31 bn, as per the central bank's estimate of the GDP at Rs. 60,124 bn. (ET)
In a move to help non-banking finance companies and mutual funds meet their liquidity requirements, the RBI has extended its special repo window till September 30, 2009. (ET)
The Consumer confidence (The Conference Board's index) in the US sank to 37.7, the lowest level on record in January, as jobs evaporated and home values sank, signalling a further slide in spending at the start of 2009. (Bloomberg)

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
Above 2787 level, rally may continue up to 2815-2817 zone for time being.
Support at 2748 & 2757 levels. Below these levels, expect profit booking up to 2717-2719 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2689-2691 zone.
Below 2604-2606 zone, panic may continue up to 2575-2577 zone. Buy if touches this zone. Stop Loss at 2537-2539 zone.
On Positive Side, above 2844-2846 zone it can zoom up to 2863-2865 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then rally may continue.
Short-Term Investors:
Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

BSE SENSEX
There is a chance of false signal. Traders can expect rally further.

Short-Term Investors:
Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.
On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions too.

Strong & Weak futures
This is list of 10 strong futures: Visual Soft,Power Grid,NTPC,Auro Pharma,Polaris,Hero Honda,Infosys Tech,Cipla,GMR Infra & Reliance.
And this is list of 10 Weak Futures:
Satyam Comp,Divis Lab,Punj Lloyd,IVRCL Infra,Zeel,Orient Bank,PNB,Tata Steel,LT & Hindalco.
Nifty is in Down Trend.

FII DATA for 27th Jan
FII -228.56 Cr
DII +139.64 Cr

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE
The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,174.73. Up by 58.70 points.
The Broader S&P 500 closed at 845.71. Up by 9.14 points.
The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,504.90. Up by 15.44 points.
The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 48.94/95 per dollar on yesterday, stronger than Friday's close of 49.27/29.
TECH Stocks May Zoom

Trading Calls 28th Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy TCS-499 above 505 for 522 with sl 497 [Trading]

Buy Wipro-226 above 230 for 245 with sl 226

Short Hindzinc-350 @ 360 for 345 with sl 365

Buy Ster-267 above 271 for 285 with sl 168 [Expected Breakout]

Buy Jindalstel-876 above 885 for 920 with sl 878

Buy Cairn-161 for 169 with sl 160 [Breakout]

Buy Crompgreav-131 for 143 with sl 130

Buy HeroHonda-857 for 910 with sl 850 [positional]

+ve to Market :

1. US Market 2. SGX nifty 3. Satyam Issue 4. Reduction expected petrol/diesel price 5. Expected RBI rate cuts in coming days 6. Expected Inflation below 5%

-ve to Market

: 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. RBI's projection on GDP 9. Global meltdown in employment 10. Cost cutting measures in various sectors through exmployment

NIFTY & SENSEX SPOT LEVELS TODAY

	2771.35	( 3.46 %)	92.80
		1	2	3
Resistance		2804.02	2836.68	2896.07
Support		2711.97	2652.58	2619.92

	9004.08		( 3.80 %)	329.73
			1	2	3
Resistance			9087.68	9171.28	9320.59
Support			8854.77	8705.46	8621.86

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market Outlook for 27.01.09

Headlines for the day
    Corporate News Headline
    SBI reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 38.3% yoy to Rs. 212.56 bn and net profit increased 37% yoy to Rs. 24.78 bn. (BS)
    ICICI Bank reported Q3'09 results; total revenue increased 8.11% yoy to Rs. 156.53 bn and net profit increased 39.29% yoy to Rs. 15.6 bn. (BS)
    HUL reported weak Q4'08 results; total revenue increased 16.8% yoy to Rs. 43.08 bn, however, net profit declined 2.49% yoy to Rs. 6.16 bn. (BS)

    Economic and Political Headline
    According to the RBI reports, after recording double-digit growth for 14 consecutive quarters, the country´s services sector growth decelerated to 9.6% during Q2 FY09. (ET)
    The Indian economy may grow 6.8% in the 12 months ending March 31, less than the 7.7% forecasted in September, its weakest pace in six years, pulled down by the global recession, the RBI said. (Bloomberg)
    In US, sales of existing homes rose 6.5% to an annual rate of 4.74 mn propelled by the biggest slump in prices since the Great Depression and the Conference Board's Index of leading economic indicators increased 0.3% as the supply of money expanded. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)
  Above 2683 level, expect short covering up to 2711-2713 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2739-2741 zone by non-stop.

Support at 2651-2653 zone. Below this zone, selling may continue up to 2644-2646 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2623-2625 zone.

Buy if touches 2614-2616 zone. Stop Loss at 2586-2588 zone.

On Positive Side, above 2748-2750 zone it can zoom up to 2776-2778 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.
 

BSE SENSEX   
 False signal is likely. Technically profit booking should continue.
  
Short-Term Investors:  
 Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions 

 

Strong & Weak  futures  
This is list of 10 strong futures:

Polaris, Balrampur Chini, Power Grid, Ultra Cem, Neyveli, BEL, Hero Honda, Colpal, Naukri & Matrix Labs. 

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

Rolta, Aban, IVRCL  Infra, DLF, Zeel, Punjlloyd, Nagar Const, Welguj, TVS Motor, Kotak Bank & Siemens. 
Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,116.03. Up by 38.47 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 836.57. Up by 4.62 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,489.46. Down by 12.17 points.

Indian financial markets were closed on yesterday for a holiday.

 

OIL & GAS INDEX Stocks May Zoom

 

NIFTY AND SENSEX SPOT LEVELS FOR THE DAY

	2678.55	( -1.30 %)	-35.25
		1	2	3
Resistance		2742.18	2805.82	2846.08
Support		2638.28	2598.02	2534.38

	8674.35		( -1.58 %)	-139.49
			1	2	3
Resistance			8811.59	8948.84	9038.83
Support			8584.35	8494.36	8357.11

 

--
Arvind Parekh
+ 91 98432 32381

Market outlook for 23.01.09

Headlines for the day

   Corporate News Headline

   Reliance Industries reported weak Q3'09 results; total revenue decreased 8.75% yoy to Rs. 315.63 bn and net profit excluding exceptional items, fell 9.8% to Rs. 35.01 bn. (ET)

   Ranbaxy Laboratories reported weak Q4'08 results; total revenue increased 6.4% yoy to Rs. 19.1 bn, however, it posted a net loss of Rs. 6.8 bn as against a profit of Rs. 1.88 bn during the same quarter last year. (ET)

   Ashok Leyland has bagged an order from Delhi Transport Corporation for supplying 875 ultra-low entry CNG buses, worth Rs. 4.8 bn crore and is accompanied by a Rs. 7.1 bn crore maintenance contract for 12 years. (ET)

   Economic and Political Headline

   Inflation increased to 5.6% for the week ended January 10, 2009, due to higher prices of edible items such as fruits and vegetables. (BS)

   The US government data revealed that the home prices in November declined 8.7% from a year earlier, the biggest drop since 1991. Housing starts, fell 16% in December to an annual rate of 550,000. In addition, initial jobless claims increased by 62,000 to 589,000 in the week ended January 17, 2009. (Bloomberg)

   European industrial orders fell by 26% yoy, the most on record in November as the recession curtailed manufacturers' demand for new machines and equipment. (Bloomberg)

 

NIFTY FUTURES (F & O)

 Below 2680 level, expect profit booking up to 2671-2673 zone and thereafter slide may continue up to 2648-2650 zone by non-stop.

Hurdles at 2702 & 2715 levels. Above these levels, rally may continue up to 2722-2724 zone and thereafter expect a jump up to 2745-2747 zone.

Above 2752-2754 zone, it can zoom up to 2774-2776 zone and if crosses & sustains at above this zone then uptrend may continue.

On Negative Side, rebound expected at around 2641-2643 zone. Stop Loss at 2619-2621 zone.

 

 

Short-Term Investors:

Bearish Trend. 3 closes below 3144 level, it can tumble up to 2312 level by non-stop.

 

BSE SENSEX  

False signal is likely. Technically recovery should continue.

 

Short-Term Investors:

Short-Term trend is Bearish and target at around 8060 level on down side.

On Positive Side, short rallies up to 9072 level can be used to exit. Maintain a Stop Loss at 9409 level for your short positions

 

Trading Calls 23rd Jan 2009

USE STRICT Stop Loss for todays trading

Buy GDL-74.95 for 80 with sl 73

Buy Natioalumn-198 for 205 with sl 195

Short JPHydro-30 for 27 with sl 31

Short Relcapital-392 for 374 with sl 400

Short Albk-52 for 47 with sl 53.50

-ve to Market : 1. Continous selling by FII 2. DII selling 3. Expected slowdown/Q3Results 4. Rs.Vs$ 5. Sentiment 6. There is no delivery based buying by investors 7. Asian Market (Mixed) 8. US Market 9.SGX Nifty

 

Strong & Weak  futures 
 This is list of 10 strong futures:

Naukri, Neyveli, Nation Alum, Polaris, Ultra Cem, Balram Chin, GMR Infra, HPCL & BEL.

And this is list of 10  Weak Futures:

J Stainless, DLF, Aban, Punj Lloyd, IVRCL Infra, Roltas, Zee, Nagar Const, BRFL & TVS Motors.
 Nifty is in Down Trend.

 

GLOBAL CUES & RUPEE

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 8,122.80. Down by 105.30 points.

The Broader S&P 500 closed at 827.50. Down by 12.74 points.

The Nasdaq Composite Index closed at 1,465.49. Down by 41.58 points.

The partially convertible rupee <INR=IN> ended at 49.13/16 per dollar on yesterday, weaker than Wednesday's close of 49.11/13.

 

FMCG INDEX Stocks May Fall

 

	2713.80	( 0.28 %)	7.65
		1	2	3
Resistance		2765.57	2824.98	2862.67
Support		2668.47	2630.78	2571.37

	8813.84		( 0.39 %)	34.67
			1	2	3
Resistance			8975.34	9171.52	9291.72
Support			8658.96	8538.76	8342.58

 

 

FII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
FII	22-Jan-2009	1232.91	1537.36	-304.45

DII trading activity on NSE and BSE in Capital Market Segment(In Rs. Crores)
Category	Date	Buy Value	Sell Value	Net Value
DII	22-Jan-2009	671.53	667.57	3.96

 

--

Arvind Parekh

+ 91 98432 32381